A global map of species at risk of extinction due to natural hazards.

An often-overlooked question of the biodiversity crisis is how natural hazards contribute to species extinction risk. To address this issue, we explored how four natural hazards, earthquakes, hurricanes, tsunamis, and volcanoes, overlapped with the distribution ranges of amphibians, birds, mammals, and reptiles that have either narrow distributions or populations with few mature individuals. To assess which species are at risk from these natural hazards, we combined the frequency and magnitude of each natural hazard to estimate their impact. We considered species at risk if they overlapped with regions where any of the four natural hazards historically occurred (n = 3,722). Those species with at least a quarter of their range subjected to a high relative impact were considered at high risk (n = 2,001) of extinction due to natural hazards. In total, 834 reptiles, 617 amphibians, 302 birds, and 248 mammals were at high risk and they were mainly distributed on islands and in the tropics. Hurricanes (n = 983) and earthquakes (n = 868) affected most species, while tsunamis (n = 272), and volcanoes (n = 171) affected considerably fewer. The region with the highest number of species at high risk was the Pacific Ring of Fire, especially due to volcanoes, earthquakes, and tsunamis, while hurricane-related high-risk species were concentrated in the Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico, and northwestern Pacific Ocean. Our study provides important information regarding the species at risk due to natural hazards and can help guide conservation attention and efforts to safeguard their survival.

The shape of the Himalayan "Arc": An Ellipse pinned by syntaxial strike-slip fault tips.

Trans-Himalayan geodetic data show that, between both syntaxes, India/Asia convergence is steadily oriented ≈ N20°E. However, surface faulting near both syntaxes, along the 2005 and 1950 earthquake ruptures, imply long-term thrusting directed ≈ 130° apart, and post-LGM (last Glacial Maximum) shortening rates of ≈ 5 to 6 mm/y, ≈ 2 to 3 times slower than in Nepal (≈ 15 to 20 mm/y). Syntaxial earthquakes' return-time are also ≈ 3 times longer (>2,000 y) than in Nepal (≈ 700 y). In a structural frame centered halfway between the syntaxial cusps, the tectonic features of the range show remarkable symmetry. In map view, the overall shapes of the Main Front Thrust (MFT) and the Main Central Thrust (MCT) closely fit ellipses, with major-to-minor axis ratios of ≈ 2.5 to 3. This suggests that the range growth atop subducting India is "pinned" by the strike-slip faults that bound it to the east and west. Discrete Element Modeling corroborates a late-Tertiary elliptical range growth. This accounts for the ≈ 65° angles and twofold to threefold decrease in active thrusting between Nepal and the syntaxes, for the maximum Himalayan heights (≥8,000 m), larger magnitudes (≥8), and shorter return-time (≈ 700 y) of great earthquakes in Nepal, for the existence of two 500- to 600 km-long, south-concave mountain ranges north of both syntaxes and for the ≈ 9 mm/y, N100 to 110°E extension across southern Tibet. It also suggests that predictions of impending or frequent great earthquakes in the eastern- and westernmost Himalayas may be overstated.

Effect of the 2024 Noto Peninsula earthquake on outpatient chemotherapy among cancer survivors in Japan: a retrospective study.

BACKGROUND: The study aim was to elucidate the effect of the 2024 Noto Peninsula earthquake on outpatient chemotherapy treatment of cancer survivors at Kanazawa Medical University Hospital (KMUH), Japan. METHODS: Medical and nursing records for January 4-31, 2024, from KMUH were retrospectively collected, and data for 286 participants were analyzed. RESULTS: Of the 286 participants, 95.1% were able to attend their first scheduled appointment. Of the 12 (4.2%) who could not attend because of the earthquake, 7 (58.3%) rescheduled their appointments. A total of 8 participants (2.8%) were unable to attend their second scheduled appointment in January, despite being able to attend their first appointment; 3 (37.5%) of these participants reported that they were unable to attend their appointments because of the effect of the earthquake. Chemotherapy was not administered to 53 (18.5%) participants who did attend, mainly owing to neutropenia, progressive disease, rash, and anemia. Evacuation information was available for 25 participants (8.7%); of these, 8 (28.6%) evacuated to their homes, 7 (25.0%) to public shelters, and 4 (14.3%) to apartments near the hospital. Disaster status information was obtained from 62 participants (21.7%), and indicated experiences such as home damage, water outages, and relying on transportation assistance from family to attend appointments. CONCLUSIONS: Most cancer survivors receiving chemotherapy at KMUH were able to maintain outpatient visits. However, a few could not attend because of the earthquake. Further studies are needed to provide more detailed information on the effect of disasters on cancer survivors and the potential factors underlying non-attendance at medical appointments.

Pediatric kidney care experience after the 2023 Turkey/Syria earthquake.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Two earthquakes on February 6th, 2023 destroyed ten cities in Türkiye. We report our experience with pediatric victims during these catastrophes, with a focus on crush syndrome related-acute kidney injury (Crush-AKI) and death. METHOD: A web-based software was prepared. Patient demographics, time under rubble (TUR), admission laboratory data, dialysis, and kidney and overall outcomes were asked. RESULTS: 903 injured children (median age: 11.62 years) were evaluated. Mean TUR was 13 h (Interquartile range-IQR: 32.5), max 240 h). 31 of 32 patients with a TUR of >120 h survived. The patient who rescued after ten days survived.Two-thirds of the patients were given 50 mEq/L sodium-bicarbonate in 0.45% sodium-chloride solution on admission day. 58% of patients were given intravenous fluid (IVF) at a volume of 2000-3000 mL/m2 body surface area (BSA), 40% of 3000-4000 mL/m2 BSA, and only 2% of >4000 mL/m2 BSA. 425 patients had surgeries, 48 suffered from major bleeding. Amputations were recorded in 96 patients. Eighty-two and 66 patients required ventilator and inotropic support, respectively.Crush-AKI developed in 314 patients (36% of all patients). 189 patients were dialyzed. Age > 15 years, creatine phosphokinase (CK)≥20 950 U/L, TUR≥10 h, and the first-day IVF volume < 3000-4000 mL/m2 BSA were associated with Crush-AKI development. 22 deaths were recorded, 20 of 22 occurred in patients with Crush-AKI and within the first 4 days of admission. All patients admitted after 7 days survived. CONCLUSIONS: This is the most extensive pediatric kidney disaster data after an earthquake. Serum CK level was significantly associated with Crush-AKI at the levels of >20 950 U/L, but not with death. Adolescent age and initial IVF of less than 3000-4000 mL/m2 BSA were also asscoiated with Crush-AKI. Given that mildly injured victims can survive longer periods in the disaster field, we suggest uninterrupted rescue activity for at least 10 days.

Growth and stabilization of induced seismicity rates during long-term, low-pressure fluid injection.

We examine the temporal evolution of sequences of induced seismicity caused by long-term fluid injection using a compilation of over 20 case studies where moderate magnitude (M > 3.0) induced events have been recorded. We compare rates of seismicity with injection rates via the seismogenic index and seismic efficiency parameters, computing both cumulative and time-windowed values. We find that cumulative values tend to accelerate steeply as each seismicity sequence initiates-most cases reach a value that is within 0.5 units of their maximum value within 1-3 years. Time-windowed values tend to increase to maximum values within 25%-35% of the overall sequence, before decreasing as levels of seismicity stabilize. We interpret these observations with respect to the pore pressure changes that will be generated in highly porous, high permeability reservoirs. In such situations, the rate of pore pressure change is highest during the early phases of injection and decreases with time. If induced seismicity scales with the rate of deformation, which in turn is controlled by the rate of pore pressure change, then it is to be expected that induced seismicity is highest during the early phases of injection, and then decreases with time. This article is part of the theme issue 'Induced seismicity in coupled subsurface systems'.

Inferring maximum magnitudes from the ordered sequence of large earthquakes.

The largest magnitude earthquake in a sequence is often used as a proxy for hazard estimates, as consequences are often predominately from this single event (in small seismic zones). In this article, the concept of order statistics is adapted to infer the maximum magnitude ([Formula: see text]) of an earthquake catalogue. A suite tools developed here can discern [Formula: see text] influences through hypothesis testing, quantify [Formula: see text] through maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) or select the best [Formula: see text] prediction amongst several models. The efficacy of these tools is benchmarked against synthetic and real-data tests, demonstrating their utility. Ultimately, 13 cases of induced seismicity spanning wastewater disposal, hydraulic fracturing and enhanced geothermal systems are tested for volume-based [Formula: see text]. I find that there is no evidence of volume-based processes influencing any of these cases. On the contrary, all these cases are adequately explained by an unbounded magnitude distribution. This is significant because it suggests that induced earthquake hazards should also be treated as unbounded. On the other hand, if bounded cases exist, then the tools developed here will be able to discern them, potentially changing how an operator mitigates these hazards. Overall, this suite of tools will be important for better-understanding earthquakes and managing their risks. This article is part of the theme issue 'Induced seismicity in coupled subsurface systems'.

Injection-induced basement seismicity beneath the Raton Basin: constraints from refined fault architectures and basin structure.

Intraplate earthquakes induced by anthropogenic fluid injection present unexpected seismic risk to previously quiescent or low seismicity-rate regions. Despite many studies of induced seismicity, there are relatively few with detailed openly accessible constraints on the interaction between seismic sources and subsurface structures. In this study of the Raton Basin, we refine source observations from a dense nodal array and constrain basin structure using teleseismic receiver functions. The cross-correlation-based relocated hypocentres and a new set of focal mechanisms light up active fault segments and show clear spatiotemporal patterns. The geometric complexity of reactivated fault clusters appears greatest near higher rate injection wells. Simpler normal fault structure is found farther from injection wells and near abrupt structural transitions suggested by receiver functions. While less induced seismicity in the crystalline basement is expected when injection is >1 km from the top of the basement (like Raton), our receiver function analysis identified a basin thickness ~3 km beneath the nodal array and lateral variations in sedimentary structures. Our results explain potential fluid connectivity between the injection depths focused at ~1-1.5 km below the surface and basement fault activity that begins at ~3 km and reaches peak activity at ~4-8 km depths. This article is part of the theme issue 'Induced seismicity in coupled subsurface systems'.

Are maximum magnitudes of induced earthquakes controlled by pressure diffusion?

There is an ongoing discussion about how to forecast the maximum magnitudes of induced earthquakes based on operational parameters, subsurface conditions and physical process understanding. Although the occurrence of damage caused by induced earthquakes is rare, some cases have caused significant economic loss, injuries and even loss of life. We analysed a global compilation of earthquakes induced by hydraulic fracturing, geothermal reservoir stimulation, water disposal, gas storage and reservoir impoundment. Our analysis showed that maximum magnitudes scale with the characteristic length of pressure diffusion in the brittle Earth's crust. We observed an increase in the nucleation potential of larger-magnitude earthquakes with time and explained it by diffusion-controlled growth of the pressure-perturbed part of faults. Numerical and analytical fault size modelling supported our findings. Finally, we derived magnitude scaling laws to manage induced seismic hazard of upcoming energy projects prior to operation. This article is part of the theme issue 'Induced seismicity in coupled subsurface systems'.

The 2023 Türkiye-Syria earthquakes: analysis of pediatric victims with crush syndrome and acute kidney Injury.

BACKGROUND: On February 6th, 2023, two consecutive earthquakes struck southeastern Türkiye with magnitudes of 7.7 and 7.6, respectively. This study aimed to analyze the clinical and laboratory findings, as well as management of pediatric victims with Crush Syndrome (CS) and Acute Kidney Injury (AKI). METHODS: The study included pediatric earthquake victims who were presented to Mersin University Hospital. Clinical and laboratory characteristics of the patients were collected retrospectively. RESULTS: Among 649 patients, Crush injury (CI), CS and AKI was observed in 157, 59, and 17 patients, respectively. White blood cell count (12,870 [IQR: 9910-18700] vs. 10,545 [IQR: 8355-14057] /µL, P < 0.001), C-reactive protein (51.27 [IQR: 14.80-88.78] vs. 4.59 [1.04-18.25] mg/L, P < 0.001) and myoglobin levels (443.00 [IQR: 198.5-1759.35] vs. 17 [11.8-30.43] ng/ml) were higher in patients with CS, while their sodium (IQR: 134 [131-137] vs. 136 [134-138] mEq/L, P < 0.001) levels were lower compared to non-CS patients. An increase in myoglobin levels was identified as an independent risk factor for developing CS (OR = 1.017 [1.006-1.027]). Intravenous fluid replacement was administered to the patients with CS at a dose of 4000 cc/m2/day. Hypokalemia was observed in 51.9% of the CS patients on the third day. All patients with AKI showed improvement and no deaths were reported. CONCLUSIONS: Hyponatremia and increase in inflammation markers associated with CS may be observed. An increase in myoglobin levels was identified as a risk factor for CS. Hypokalemia may be seen as a complication of vigorous fluid therapy during hospitalization.

Progress report of the Tohoku Medical Megabank Community-Based Cohort Study: Study profile of the repeated center-based survey during second period in Miyagi Prefecture.

BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to report the basic profile of the Miyagi Prefecture part of a repeated center-based survey during the second period (2nd period survey) of the Tohoku Medical Megabank Community-Based Cohort Study (TMM CommCohort Study), as well as the participants' characteristics based on their participation type in the baseline survey. METHODS: The 2nd period survey, conducted from June 2017 to March 2021, included participants of the TMM CommCohort Study (May 2013 to March 2016). In addition to the questionnaire, blood, urine, and physiological function tests were performed during the 2nd period survey. There were three main ways of participation in the baseline survey: Type 1, Type 1 additional, or Type 2 survey. The 2nd period survey was conducted in the same manner as the Type 2 survey, which was based on the community support center (CSC). RESULTS: In Miyagi Prefecture, 29,383 (57.7%) of 50,967 participants participated in the 2nd period survey. The participation rate among individuals who had visited the CSC was approximately 80%. Although some factors differed depending on the participation type in the baseline survey, the 2nd period survey respondents in the Type 1 and Type 2 survey groups at baseline had similar traits. CONCLUSIONS: The 2nd period survey of the TMM CommCohort Study provided detailed follow-up information. Following up on the health conditions of the participants will clarify the long-term effects of disasters and contribute to personalized prevention.

Modeling the structural relationships between trauma exposure with substance use tendency, depression symptoms, and suicidal thoughts in individuals with earthquake trauma experience: the mediatory role of peritraumatic dissociation and experiential avoidance.

BACKGROUND: Despite the fact that studies indicate that earthquake trauma is associated with numerous psychological consequences, the mediating mechanisms leading to these outcomes have not been well-studied. Therefore, this study investigates the relationship between trauma exposure with substance use tendency, depression, and suicidal thoughts, with the mediating role of peritraumatic dissociation and experiential avoidance. METHODS: The descriptive-correlational approach was employed in this study. The participants were people who had experienced the Kermanshah earthquake in 2017. A total of 324 people were selected by convenient sampling method. The Traumatic Exposure Severity Scale, the Peritraumatic Dissociative Experiences Questionnaire, the Acceptance and Action Questionnaire, the Iranian Addiction Potential Scale, Beck's Depression Inventory [BDI-II], and Beck's Suicidal Thoughts Scale were used to collect data. The gathered data was analyzed| using structural equation modeling in |SPSS Ver. 24 and LISREL Ver. 24. RESULTS: The study findings indicated that the intensity of the trauma exposure is directly and significantly associated with depression symptoms, peritraumatic dissociation, and experiential avoidance. The severity of exposure to trauma had a significant indirect effect on the tendency to use substances through experiential avoidance. This is while the severity of the trauma experience did not directly correlate with substance use and suicidal thoughts. In addition, peritraumatic dissociation did not act as a mediator in the relationship between the severity of trauma exposure with substance use, depression, and suicidal thoughts. CONCLUSIONS: The severity of exposure to the earthquake was associated with symptoms of depression and these findings indicate the importance of experiential avoidance in predicting the tendency to use drugs. Hence, it is essential to design and implement psychological interventions that target experiential avoidance to prevent drug use tendencies and to establish policies that lower depression symptoms following natural disasters.

The relationship between earthquake-induced post-traumatic stress disorder and breastfeeding attitude and behavior.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to investigate the prevalence and severity of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and analyze the relationship between PTSD and breastfeeding attitudes and behaviors among breastfeeding mothers and women with children aged 0-24 months, all of whom had experienced the earthquake. METHODS: In this cross-sectional survey, a face-to-face questionnaire was administered to 173 earthquake survivors in Adiyaman, Turkey, during June and July 2023. The PTSD Checklist-Civilian scale was used to assess the presence of PTSD, while the Breastfeeding Attitudes of the Evaluation Scale (BAES) was employed to evaluate breastfeeding behaviors in mothers. RESULTS: Significantly higher PTSD scores (47.6 ± 17.4) were found among women staying in tents, while lower scores (37.0 ± 16.4) were observed in those who continued breastfeeding. 78.6% of women reported decreased breast milk because of the earthquake. Mothers with reduced milk supply had higher PTSD scores (46.1 ± 17.3). Breastfeeding training was associated with higher BAES scores (106.8 ± 56.8) and lower PTSD scores (32.5 ± 11.0). A significant negative correlation was observed between the PTSD score and BAES (r = -0.742; p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The study demonstrated that breastfeeding may protect mothers against PTSD in the aftermath of earthquakes, emphasizing the importance of breastfeeding education. The higher frequency and severity of PTSD observed among earthquake survivor mothers residing in tents underscores the importance of promptly transitioning to permanent housing after the earthquake.

Factors affecting the mortality of February earthquakes victims in Türkiye.

OBJECTIVE: >50,000 people died in the February 2023 earthquakes in Türkiye. The aim of this study was to identify the factors affecting mortality rates of the trauma patients who were presented to the emergency department (ED) after the earthquake and provide suggestions for better preparedness strategies for future natural disasters. METHODS: This retrospective, cross-sectional study encompassed data from 955 trauma patients out of 3072 patients aged 18 years and above who sought assistance in the ED. Patients were divided into two groups: the survivor group and the exitus group. Age, gender, the city where patients came from, type of presentation, injured organ systems and mechanisms of injury, laboratory findings, the diagnoses in the ED, time spent in the ED, surgical intervention, and hemodialysis sessions were analyzed. The characteristics of those who could not be identified at the presentation to the ED were subjected to additional analysis. RESULTS: Out of 955 patients, 75.9% had extremity injuries, with crushing injuries (23.6%) being predominant. There were no significant differences in age or gender between the survivor and exitus groups (p = 0.776, p = 0.522), nor in the province of admission (p = 0.249). Clinical factors indicated that the exitus group were more likely to lack identification documents (29.6%), have spent longer trapped under debris, and have a higher frequency of ambulance transportation. Injuries such as chest and abdominal trauma, specific injury types, and amputation or open wounds were notably more frequent in the exitus group. Diagnoses revealed that metabolic causes were more common in exitus group (p < 0.001). While no significant difference existed in the need for emergency surgical intervention (p = 0.939), a higher frequency of emergency hemodialysis was observed among exitus group (p = 0.001). Laboratory findings indicated higher levels of various markers and lower calcium, base excess, and pH levels among those in the exitus group. CONCLUSION: In the aftermath of a devastating earthquake, this study underscores the formidable challenges faced by healthcare systems during natural disasters. To prepare for future disasters, healthcare systems must enhance resilience, develop rapid identification techniques, and adopt a holistic patient care approach.

Earthquake-related isolated blunt thoracic trauma patients: A special population study in the emergency department.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study is to compare patients with severe and mild blunt thoracic trauma, who survived an earthquake and presented to the emergency department (ED), in order to identify factors influencing the severity of trauma in earthquake-related thoracic injuries. METHODS: This retrospective, cross-sectional, observational comparative study included patients with isolated thoracic injuries due to the February 6th Kahramanmaras earthquake. The patients were categorized into severe and mild groups based on chest trauma scoring (CTS), and their characteristics were compared. RESULTS: The study included 53 patients, with 43 (88.1%) classified as having mild thoracic trauma and 10 (18.9%) classified as having severe thoracic trauma. There was no significant difference in the duration of entrapment between the groups (p = 0.824). The incidence of hemothorax, pneumothorax, rib fractures, and pneumomediastinum did not differ significantly between the two groups (p > 0.05). However, severe thoracic trauma was associated with a higher rate of lung contusion compared to the mild group (p = 0.045). The severe group exhibited significantly higher median scores for lung contusion, rib fractures, and total CTS compared to the mild group (p < 0.001). The mortality rate was significantly higher in the severe group (40%, n = 4) compared to the mild group (2.3%, n = 1) (p = 0.003). CONCLUSION: The duration of entrapment did not significantly affect the severity of thoracic injuries in earthquake-related blunt thoracic trauma. However, lung contusion was found to be a more prominent feature in these injuries compared to other clinical conditions such as hemothorax and pneumothorax. These findings highlight the distinct clinical implications of earthquake-related thoracic trauma and may have implications for management strategies in these cases.

Evaluation of the demographic characteristics and general health status of earthquake survivors affected by the 2023 Kahramanmaras earthquake; a section from Gaziantep Nurdagi district.

BACKGROUND: An earthquake with a magnitude of 7.7 occurred in Pazarcik District of Turkey at 04.17 on February 6, 2023 and another earthquake of 7.6 occurred at 13.24 on the same day. This is the second largest earthquake to have occurred in Turkey. The aim of this study is to investigate the earthquake-related level of knowledge, attitudes and behaviours, general health and psychological status of survivors who were affected by the 2023 Kahramanmaras Earthquake and who were living in Nurdagi District of Gaziantep after the earthquake. METHODS: Data of 2317 individuals older than 18 years of age who were living in earthquake neighbourhoods, tents and containers in Nurdagi District of Gaziantep were examined. Variables were evaluated to find out the demographic characteristics and general health status of earthquake victims. General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12) was used to find out psychological states of earthquake victims. RESULTS: The rate of injuries was 14.2% and leg and foot injuries were the most common with 44.2%. The relationship between injury status; and age, marital status, and being trapped under debris was revealed (p < 0.05). Mean GHQ-12 score of the survivors was 3.81 ± 2.81 and 51.9% experienced psychological distress. In the evaluation with logistic regression, it was found that female gender, being injured in the earthquake, loss of first degree and second degree relatives (with a higher rate in loss of first degree relative), having a severely damaged -to be demolished house and having a completely destroyed house were correlated with higher level of psychological distress (p < 0.05). CONCLUSION: General characteristics, injury prevalence and affecting factors of earthquake survivors were evaluated in the present study. Psychological distress was found in victims. For this reason, providing protective and assistive services to fight the destructive effects of earthquake is vital. Accordingly, increasing the awareness of people residing in earthquake zones regarding earthquakes is exceptionally important.

A scoping review of post-earthquake healthcare for vulnerable groups of the 2023 Turkey-Syria earthquakes.

BACKGROUND: Identifying healthcare services and also strengthening the healthcare systems to effectively deliver them in the aftermath of large-scale disasters like the 2023 Turkey-Syria earthquakes, especially for vulnerable groups cannot be emphasized enough. This study aimed at identifying the interventions undertaken or proposed for addressing the health needs or challenges of vulnerable groups immediately after the occurrence of the 2023 Turkey-Syria earthquakes, as well as for prioritizing their healthcare service delivery in the post-Turkey-Syria earthquake. METHODS: In this scoping review compiled with the five steps of the Arksey and O'Malley framework, five databases, including PubMed, Science Direct, Web of Science, OVID, and Google Scholar, were searched for studies published between March and April 2023 in line with the eligibility criteria. Interventions for enhancing post-earthquake healthcare services (PEHS) were grouped into seven (7) categories, adopted from previous guidelines and studies. Each one was assigned a default score of a value equal to one (1), which, in the end, was summed up. RESULTS: Of the 115 total records initially screened, 29 articles were eligible for review. Different interventions they reported either undertaken or proposed to address the healthcare needs and challenges, especially faced by the most vulnerable groups in the aftermath of the Turkey-Syria earthquakes, were categorized into 7 PEHS. They were ranked with their scores as follows: humanitarian health relief (25); medical care (17); mental health and psychosocial support (10); health promotion, education, and awareness (9); disease surveillance and prevention (7); disability rehabilitation (7); and sexual and reproductive health (5). CONCLUSION: Since there are no proper guidelines or recommendations about the specific or most significant PEHS to prioritize for vulnerable groups after the occurrence of large-scale earthquakes, this scoping review provides some insights that can help inform healthcare service delivery and prioritization for vulnerable groups in the post-2023 Turkey-Syria earthquakes and other similar disasters.

Exposure to earthquakes and development of ischemic heart disease.

BACKGROUND: The evidence regarding the effect of earthquake exposure on the development of cardiovascular diseases is limited. This study evaluated the association between the 2016 Gyeongju earthquake, which had a magnitude of 5.8, and over 600 subsequent aftershocks occurring within a year in Korea, with the development of ischemic heart disease (IHD) among residents of Gyeongju. METHODS: Ten years (2010-2019) of medical records from a randomly selected cohort of residents (n = 540,858) in Gyeongju and 3 control cities were acquired from the national health insurance service. Employing difference-in-difference and meta-analyses, the risks of IHD development of Gyeongju residents before (reference: Sep 2014 to Aug 2015; period 1: Sep 2015 to Aug 2016) and after (period 2: Sep 2016 to Aug 2017; period 3: Sep 2017 to Aug 2018; period 4: Sep 2018 to Aug 2019) the earthquake were estimated. RESULTS: The monthly average incidence of IHD in Gyeongju was 39.5 persons (per 1,000,000) for reference period and 38.4 persons for period 1. However, the number increased to 58.5 persons in period 2, and 49.8 persons in period 3, following the earthquake. The relative risk (RR) [with a 95% confidence interval] of developing IHD among Gyeongju residents increased by 1.58 times (1.43, 1.73) in period 2, 1.33 times (1.21, 1.46) in period 3, and 1.15 times (1.04, 1.27) in period 4, in comparison to both the control cities and the pre-earthquake reference period. The increase in RR was particularly noticeable among women, adults aged 25-44, and individuals with lower incomes. CONCLUSIONS: The major earthquake in Korea was associated with an increase in the development of IHD among local residents. Individuals exposed to earthquakes may benefit from cardiovascular health surveillance.

Post-traumatic growth in later-life cognitive function? Evidence from the 1976 Great Tangshan Earthquake.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to explore the long-term impacts of exposure to earthquake in adolescence on later-life cognitive function in China. METHODS: Data were from the 2015 China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS). Our analytical sample comprised 4394 participants aged 49 to 78 from two birth cohorts born between 1937 and 1966: exposed cohort during adolescence (born between 1952 and 1966), and non-exposed cohort during adolescence (born between 1937 and 1951). We defined earthquake exposure as the exposure severity of the 1976 Great Tangshan Earthquake (GTE). We selected community environmental characteristics as our key moderators. A difference-in-differences (DID) method was employed to estimate the long-term impact of the GTE on later-life cognitive function. RESULTS: We found that exposure to the earthquake during adolescence resulted in higher scores of later-life cognitive function (for males: ß = 2.18; 95% CI: 0.70-3.66; for females: ß = 1.22; 95% CI: 0.11-2.33). For males, this impact was moderated by community environmental characteristics including the old-age allowance program (ß = 3.07; 95% CI: 1.94-4.19) and the condition of basic community infrastructures (ß = 1.52; 95% CI: 0.84-2.19). CONCLUSIONS: Our study supports the post-traumatic growth theory. This finding suggest that individuals with early-life traumatic exposure need to be focused on. Additionally, improving the conditions of community infrastructures and establishing a community environment with comfort and security may be pretty important for promoting cognitive function and post-traumatic growth.

Influence of a private-public risk pool and an opt-out framing on earthquake protection demand for Canadian homeowners in Quebec and British Columbia.

This article describes the design and analysis of web-based choice experiments that examine how the demand for earthquake protection in Quebec and British Columbia (BC), Canada, is influenced by the default option and the structure of the insurance plan. Homeowners in both provinces were given the opportunity to purchase protection against earthquake losses when presented with one of the following options: the current private insurance plan and proposed public-private Risk Pools with different levels of the public layer. The default frame was changed so the homeowner could either opt-in by purchasing this coverage or opt-out of being given this protection and receiving a premium discount. Assigning participants to the public-private Risk Pools rather than the current private insurance plan increases the likelihood of purchasing earthquake insurance protection by an odds ratio of 2.7 or greater in BC and Quebec. Furthermore, opt-out enrollment design substantially increases take-up of earthquake protection relative to opt-in enrollment. The policy implications of these findings are discussed.

Modeling spatial correlation between earthquake insured losses in New Zealand: A mixed-effects analysis.

Earthquake insurance is a critical risk management strategy that contributes to improving recovery and thus greater resilience of individuals. Insurance companies construct premiums without taking into account spatial correlations between insured assets. This leads to potentially underestimating the risk, and therefore the exceedance probability curve. We here propose a mixed-effects model to estimate losses per ward that is able to account for heteroskedasticity and spatial correlation between insured losses. Given the significant impact of earthquakes in New Zealand due to its particular geographical and demographic characteristics, the government has established a public insurance company that collects information about the insured buildings and any claims lodged. We thus develop a two-level variance component model that is based on earthquake losses observed in New Zealand between 2000 and 2021. The proposed model aims at capturing the variability at both the ward and territorial authority levels and includes independent variables, such as seismic hazard indicators, the number of usual residents, and the average dwelling value in the ward. Our model is able to detect spatial correlation in the losses at the ward level thus increasing its predictive power and making it possible to assess the effect of spatially correlated claims that may be considerable on the tail of loss distribution.