The causal effect of mental health on labor market outcomes: The case of stress-related mental disorders following a human-made disaster.

As disasters increase due to climate change, population density, epidemics, and technology, information is needed about postdisaster consequences for people's mental health and how stress-related mental disorders affect multiple spheres of life, including labor-market attachment. We tested the causal hypothesis that individuals who developed stress-related mental disorders as a consequence of their disaster exposure experienced subsequent weak labor-market attachment and poor work-related outcomes. We leveraged a natural experiment in an instrumental variables model, studying a 2004 fireworks factory explosion disaster that precipitated the onset of stress-related disorders (posttraumatic stress disorder, anxiety, and depression) among individuals in the local community (N = 86,726). We measured labor-market outcomes using longitudinal population-level administrative data: sick leave, unemployment benefits, early retirement pension, and income from wages from 2007 to 2010. We found that individuals who developed a stress-related disorder after the disaster were likely to go on sickness benefit, both in the short- and long-term, were likely to use unemployment benefits and to lose wage income in the long term. Stress-related disorders did not increase the likelihood of early retirement. The natural experiment design minimized the possibility that omitted confounders biased these effects of mental health on work outcomes. Addressing the mental health and employment needs of survivors after a traumatic experience may improve their labor-market outcomes and their nations' economic outputs.

Accelerated biological aging six decades after prenatal famine exposure.

To test the hypothesis that early-life adversity accelerates the pace of biological aging, we analyzed data from the Dutch Hunger Winter Families Study (DHWFS, N = 951). DHWFS is a natural-experiment birth-cohort study of survivors of in-utero exposure to famine conditions caused by the German occupation of the Western Netherlands in Winter 1944 to 1945, matched controls, and their siblings. We conducted DNA methylation analysis of blood samples collected when the survivors were aged 58 to quantify biological aging using the DunedinPACE, GrimAge, and PhenoAge epigenetic clocks. Famine survivors had faster DunedinPACE, as compared with controls. This effect was strongest among women. Results were similar for GrimAge, although effect-sizes were smaller. We observed no differences in PhenoAge between survivors and controls. Famine effects were not accounted for by blood-cell composition and were similar for individuals exposed early and later in gestation. Findings suggest in-utero undernutrition may accelerate biological aging in later life.

Mechanisms linking prenatal environment and linear growth: the case of Ramadan during pregnancy.

Despite established links between prenatal nutritional deprivation and impaired offspring growth, the underlying dynamics and potential moderators remain largely unexplored. This study investigates the dynamics underlying Ramadan during pregnancy and its associations with children's linear growth, using data from the Indonesian Family Life Survey (1993 - 2015). We exploit Ramadan during pregnancy as a natural experiment, separating exposure from maternal background characteristics and season of birth effects. Employing OLS and logistic regressions, we explore two key mechanisms predicted by medical theory. First, the realization of health impairments in response to prenatal shocks is influenced by postnatal circumstances. Our results reveal significant growth impairments primarily in children raised under poor sanitary conditions, which is a risk factor for diminished linear growth by itself. Secondly, we assess whether prenatal Ramadan prompts epigenetic shifts towards earlier reproductive activity, potentially at the expense of height growth. Our data shows that prenatally exposed women tend to have their first childbirth at a younger age, though menarche onset remains unaffected. These results suggest that postnatal environments play a crucial role in mitigating sensitivity to prenatal shocks, highlighting the critical need for favorable living conditions for all children.

Mediating pathways between neighborhood disadvantage and cardiovascular risk: Quasi-experimental evidence from a Danish refugee dispersal policy.

Research has documented that neighborhood disadvantage is associated with increased cardiovascular disease risk, but it is unclear which mechanistic pathways mediate this association across the life course. Leveraging a natural experiment in which refugees to Denmark were quasi-randomly assigned to neighborhoods across the country during 1986-1998 and using 30 years of follow-up data from population and health registers, we assessed whether and how individual-level poverty, unstable employment, and poor mental health mediate the relation between neighborhood disadvantage and the risk of hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and type 2 diabetes among Danish refugees (N= 40,811). Linear probability models using the discrete time-survival framework showed that neighborhood disadvantage was associated with increased risk of hypertension (0.05 percentage points [pp] per year [95%CI -0.00, 0.10]); hyperlipidemia (0.03 pp per year [95%CI -0.01, 0.07]), and diabetes (0.01 pp per year (95%CI -0.02, 0.03)). The Baron-Kenny product-of-coefficients method for counterfactual mediation analysis indicated that cumulative income mediated 6%-28% of the disadvantage effect on these outcomes. We find limited evidence of mediation by unstable employment and poor mental health. This study informs our theoretical understanding of the pathways linking neighborhood disadvantage with cardiovascular disease risk and identifies income security as a promising point of intervention in future research.

Impact of Vietnam-era G.I. Bill eligibility on later-life blood pressure distribution: evidence from the Vietnam draft lottery natural experiment.

We quantified the impact of Vietnam-era G.I Bill eligibility, which subsidized college education for eligible Veterans, on the later-life blood pressure distribution by exploiting the Vietnam draft lottery natural experiment. We restricted Health and Retirement Study data (2006-2018) to men born between 1947-1953 (N=1,970). We estimated intention-to-treat effects at the mean and 1st-99th quantiles of blood pressure using linear and quantile regressions. Our outcomes were systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), hypertension, and self-reported stroke. We proxied G.I. Bill eligibility using lottery-defined draft eligibility. We also conducted analyses stratified by childhood socioeconomic status (cSES) defined based on a previously validated measure. Draft eligibility reduced mean blood pressure outcomes (e.g., effect on SBP: -1.33 [95% confidence interval (CI) -2.85, 0.19]). Draft eligibility also had larger protective effects at higher quantiles of the SBP and DBP distributions relative to lower quantiles (effects on SBP at the 10th and 90th quantiles: -0.33mmHg [95% CI -2.35,1.68]; -3.00mmHg [95% CI -5.68,-0.32]). Draft eligibility had protective effects on blood pressure among low and medium cSES men but opposite effects among high cSES men. G.I. Bill eligibility reshaped the blood pressure distribution to one of lower morbidity risk, particularly among low and medium cSES men.

Organ preservation after neoadjuvant long-course chemoradiotherapy versus short-course radiotherapy.

BACKGROUND: Potential differences in organ preservation between total neoadjuvant therapy (TNT) regimens integrating long-course chemoradiotherapy (LCCRT) and short-course radiotherapy (SCRT) in rectal cancer remain undefined. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This natural experiment arose from a policy change in response to the COVID-19 pandemic during which our institution switched from uniformly treating patients with LCCRT to mandating that all patients be treated with SCRT. Our study includes 323 locally advanced rectal adenocarcinoma patients treated with LCCRT-based or SCRT-based TNT from January 2018 to January 2021. Patients who achieved clinical complete response were offered organ preservation with watch-and-wait (WW) management. The primary outcome was 2-year organ preservation. Additional outcomes included local regrowth, distant recurrence, disease-free survival (DFS), and overall survival (OS). RESULTS: Patient and tumor characteristics were similar between LCCRT (n = 247) and SCRT (n = 76) cohorts. Median follow-up was 31 months. Similar clinical complete response rates were observed following LCCRT and SCRT (44.5% versus 43.4%). Two-year organ preservation was 40% [95% confidence interval (CI) 34% to 46%] and 31% (95% CI 22% to 44%) among all patients treated with LCCRT and SCRT, respectively. In patients managed with WW, LCCRT resulted in higher 2-year organ preservation (89% LCCRT, 95% CI 83% to 95% versus 70% SCRT, 95% CI 55% to 90%; P = 0.005) and lower 2-year local regrowth (19% LCCRT, 95% CI 11% to 26% versus 36% SCRT, 95% CI 16% to 52%; P = 0.072) compared with SCRT. The 2-year distant recurrence (10% versus 6%), DFS (90% versus 90%), and OS (99% versus 100%) were similar between WW patients treated with LCCRT and SCRT, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: While WW eligibility was similar between cohorts, WW patients treated with LCCRT had higher 2-year organ preservation and lower local regrowth than those treated with SCRT, yet similar DFS and OS. These data support induction LCCRT followed by consolidation chemotherapy as the preferred TNT regimen for patients with locally advanced rectal cancer pursuing organ preservation.

Cliff-edge forests: Xerothermic hotspots of local biodiversity and models for future climate change.

Cliffs are remarkable environments that enable the existence of microclimates. These small, isolated sites, decoupled from the regional macroclimate, play a significant role in maintaining species biodiversity, particularly in topographically homogeneous landscapes. Our study investigated the microclimate of south-exposed forests situated at the edge of sandstone cliffs in the western part of the North Alpine Foreland Basin in Switzerland and its role in local forest community composition. Using direct measurements from data loggers, as well as vegetation analyses, it was possible to quantify the microclimate of the cliff-edge forests and compare it with that of the surrounding forests. Our results highlighted the significant xerothermic and more variable nature of the cliff-edge forest microclimate, with a mean soil temperature up to 3.72°C warmer in the summer, higher annual (+28%) and daily (+250%) amplitudes of soil temperature, which frequently expose vegetation to extreme temperatures, and an 83% higher soil drying rate. These differences have a distinct influence on forest communities: cliff-edge forests are significantly different from surrounding forests. The site particularities of cliff edges support the presence of locally rare species and forest types, particularly of Scots pine. Cliff edges must therefore be considered microrefugia with a high conservation value for both xerothermic species and flora adapted to more continental climates. Moreover, the microclimate of cliff-edge forests could resemble the future climate in many ways. We argue that these small areas, which are already experiencing the future climate, can be seen as natural laboratories to better answer the following question: what will our forests look like in a few decades with accelerated climate change?

Les falaises sont des milieux remarquables qui permettent l'existence de microclimats. Ces petites surfaces, aux conditions éloignées du climat régional, jouent un rôle important pour la biodiversité, en particulier dans les paysages topographiquement homogènes. Notre étude a porté sur le microclimat de forêts exposées au sud, situées au bord de falaises de molasse, sur le plateau suisse, et sur son rôle dans la composition de la communauté végétale locale. En utilisant des mesures directes provenant d'enregistreurs automatiques de données, ainsi que des analyses de la végétation, il a été possible de quantifier le microclimat des forêts de bord de falaise et de le comparer à celui des forêts environnantes. Nos résultats ont mis en évidence la nature significativement xérothermique et plus variable du microclimat des forêts de bord de falaise, avec une température moyenne du sol jusqu'à 3.72°C plus élevée en été, des amplitudes accrues annuelles (+28%) et journalières (+250%) de la température du sol, qui exposent fréquemment la végétation à des températures extrêmes, et un taux d'assèchement du sol 83% plus élevé. Ces différences ont une influence marquée sur les communautés forestières: les forêts de bord de falaise sont très différentes des forêts environnantes. Elles permettent la présence d'espèces et de types de forêts localement rares, notamment des pinèdes. Les bords de falaise doivent donc être considérés comme des microrefuges à haute valeur de conservation pour les espèces xérothermiques et la flore adaptée à des climats plus continentaux. En outre, le microclimat des forêts de bord de falaise pourrait ressembler au climat futur à bien des égards. Nous soutenons que ces petites zones, qui connaissent déjà le climat futur, peuvent être considérées comme des laboratoires naturels permettant de mieux répondre à la question suivante: à quoi ressembleront nos forêts dans quelques décennies, suite aux changements climatiques?

Impact of persistently high sea surface temperatures on the rhizobiomes of Zostera marina in a Baltic Sea benthocosms.

Persistently high marine temperatures are escalating and threating marine biodiversity. The Baltic Sea, warming faster than other seas, is a good model to study the impact of increasing sea surface temperatures. Zostera marina, a key player in the Baltic ecosystem, faces susceptibility to disturbances, especially under chronic high temperatures. Despite the increasing number of studies on the impact of global warming on seagrasses, little attention has been paid to the role of the holobiont. Using an outdoor benthocosm to replicate near-natural conditions, this study explores the repercussions of persistent warming on the microbiome of Z. marina and its implications for holobiont function. Results show that both seasonal warming and chronic warming, impact Z. marina roots and sediment microbiome. Compared with roots, sediments demonstrate higher diversity and stability throughout the study, but temperature effects manifest earlier in both compartments, possibly linked to premature Z. marina die-offs under chronic warming. Shifts in microbial composition, such as an increase in organic matter-degrading and sulfur-related bacteria, accompany chronic warming. A higher ratio of sulfate-reducing bacteria compared to sulfide oxidizers was found in the warming treatment which may result in the collapse of the seagrasses, due to toxic levels of sulfide. Differentiating predicted pathways for warmest temperatures were related to sulfur and nitrogen cycles, suggest an increase of the microbial metabolism, and possible seagrass protection strategies through the production of isoprene. These structural and compositional variations in the associated microbiome offer early insights into the ecological status of seagrasses. Certain taxa/genes/pathways may serve as markers for specific stresses. Monitoring programs should integrate this aspect to identify early indicators of seagrass health. Understanding microbiome changes under stress is crucial for the use of potential probiotic taxa to mitigate climate change effects. Broader-scale examination of seagrass-microorganism interactions is needed to leverage knowledge on host-microbe interactions in seagrasses.

Leading digit bias in hemoglobin thresholds for red cell transfusion.

BACKGROUND: Leading digit bias is a heuristic whereby humans overemphasize the left-most digit when evaluating numbers (e.g., 9.99 vs. 10.00). The bias might affect the interpretation of hemoglobin results and influence red cell transfusion in hospitalized patients. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: Adults who received a red cell transfusion while registered at the University Health Network (Toronto, Canada) between January 1, 2016 and January 1, 2022 (n = 6 years) were included. The primary analysis excluded apheresis, red cell disorders, radiology suites, and operating rooms. The primary comparison was a regression discontinuity analysis of transfusion occurrence above and below the hemoglobin threshold of 79 g/L (local units). Additional analyses tested other leading digit and control thresholds (71, 81, and 91 g/L). Secondary analyses explored temporal covariates and clinical subgroups. RESULTS: A total of 211,872 red cell transfusions were identified over the study period (median pre-transfusion hemoglobin 76 g/L; interquartile range = 69-92 g/L), with 107,790 inpatient transfusions in the primary analysis. The 79 g/L threshold showed 815 fewer red cell units above the threshold (95% confidence interval [CI]: -1215 to -415). The 69 g/L threshold showed 2813 fewer transfused units (95% CI: -4407 to -1220), and 89 g/L showed 40 fewer units (95% CI: -408 to 328). The effect was accentuated during daytime, weekday, and May-June months, persisted in analyses including all transfusions, and was absent at control thresholds. CONCLUSION: Leading digit bias might have a modest influence on the decision to transfuse red cells. The findings may inform practice guidelines and quasi-experimental study design in transfusion research.

Effects of changes in residential fast-food outlet exposure on Body Mass Index change: longitudinal evidence from 92,211 Lifelines participants.

BACKGROUND: Evidence on the association between fast-food outlet exposure and Body Mass Index (BMI) remains inconsistent and is primarily based on cross-sectional studies. We investigated the associations between changes in fast-food outlet exposure and BMI changes, and to what extent these associations are moderated by age and fast-food outlet exposure at baseline. METHODS: We used 4-year longitudinal data of the Lifelines adult cohort (N = 92,211). Participant residential addresses at baseline and follow-up were linked to a register containing fast-food outlet locations using geocoding. Change in fast-food outlet exposure was defined as the number of fast-food outlets within 1 km of the residential address at follow-up minus the number of fast-food outlets within 1 km of the residential address at baseline. BMI was calculated based on objectively measured weight and height. Fixed effects analyses were performed adjusting for changes in covariates and potential confounders. Exposure-moderator interactions were tested and stratified analyses were performed if p < 0.10. RESULTS: Participants who had an increase in the number of fast-food outlets within 1 km had a greater BMI increase (B(95% CI): 0.003 (0.001,0.006)). Decreases in fast-food outlet exposure were not associated with BMI change (B(95% CI): 0.001 (-0.001,0.004)). No clear moderation pattern by age or fast-food outlet exposure at baseline was found. CONCLUSIONS: Increases in residential fast-food outlet exposure are associated with BMI gain, whereas decreases in fast-food outlet exposure are not associated with BMI loss. Effect sizes of increases in fast-food outlet exposure on BMI change were small at individual level. However, a longer follow-up period may have been needed to fully capture the impact of increases in fast-food outlet exposure on BMI change. Furthermore, these effect sizes could still be important at population level considering the rapid rise of fast-food outlets across society. Future studies should investigate the mechanisms and changes in consumer behaviours underlying associations between changes in fast-food outlet exposure and BMI change.

Children's Health in London and Luton (CHILL) cohort: a 12-month natural experimental study of the effects of the Ultra Low Emission Zone on children's travel to school.

BACKGROUND: The Ultra-Low Emission Zone (ULEZ), introduced in Central London in April 2019, aims to enhance air quality and improve public health. The Children's Health in London and Luton (CHILL) study evaluates the impact of the ULEZ on children's health. This analysis focuses on the one-year impacts on the shift towards active travel to school. METHODS: CHILL is a prospective parallel cohort study of ethnically diverse children, aged 6-9 years attending 84 primary schools within or with catchment areas encompassing London's ULEZ (intervention) and Luton (non-intervention area). Baseline (2018/19) and one-year follow-up (2019/20) data were collected at school visits from 1992 (58%) children who reported their mode of travel to school 'today' (day of assessment). Multilevel logistic regressions were performed to analyse associations between the introduction of the ULEZ and the likelihood of switching from inactive to active travel modes, and vice-versa. Interactions between intervention group status and pre-specified effect modifiers were also explored. RESULTS: Among children who took inactive modes at baseline, 42% of children in London and 20% of children in Luton switched to active modes. For children taking active modes at baseline, 5% of children in London and 21% of children in Luton switched to inactive modes. Relative to the children in Luton, children in London were more likely to have switched from inactive to active modes (OR 3.64, 95% CI 1.21-10.92). Children in the intervention group were also less likely to switch from active to inactive modes (OR 0.11, 0.05-0.24). Moderator analyses showed that children living further from school were more likely to switch from inactive to active modes (OR 6.06,1.87-19.68) compared to those living closer (OR 1.43, 0.27-7.54). CONCLUSIONS: Implementation of clean air zones can increase uptake of active travel to school and was particularly associated with more sustainable and active travel in children living further from school.

The impact of the world's first regulatory, multi-setting intervention on sedentary behaviour among children and adolescents (ENERGISE): a natural experiment evaluation.

BACKGROUND: Regulatory actions are increasingly used to tackle issues such as excessive alcohol or sugar intake, but such actions to reduce sedentary behaviour remain scarce. World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines on sedentary behaviour call for system-wide policies. The Chinese government introduced the world's first nation-wide multi-setting regulation on multiple types of sedentary behaviour in children and adolescents in July 2021. This regulation restricts when (and for how long) online gaming businesses can provide access to pupils; the amount of homework teachers can assign to pupils according to their year groups; and when tutoring businesses can provide lessons to pupils. We evaluated the effect of this regulation on sedentary behaviour safeguarding pupils. METHODS: With a natural experiment evaluation design, we used representative surveillance data from 9- to 18-year-old pupils before and after the introduction of the regulation, for longitudinal (n = 7,054, matched individuals, primary analysis) and repeated cross-sectional (n = 99,947, exploratory analysis) analyses. We analysed pre-post differences for self-reported sedentary behaviour outcomes (total sedentary behaviour time, screen viewing time, electronic device use time, homework time, and out-of-campus learning time) using multilevel models, and explored differences by sex, education stage, residency, and baseline weight status. RESULTS: Longitudinal analyses indicated that pupils had reduced their mean total daily sedentary behaviour time by 13.8% (95% confidence interval [CI]: -15.9 to -11.7%, approximately 46 min) and were 1.20 times as likely to meet international daily screen time recommendations (95% CI: 1.01 to 1.32) one month after the introduction of the regulation compared to the reference group (before its introduction). They were on average 2.79 times as likely to meet the regulatory requirement on homework time (95% CI: 2.47 to 3.14) than the reference group and reduced their daily total screen-viewing time by 6.4% (95% CI: -9.6 to -3.3%, approximately 10 min). The positive effects were more pronounced among high-risk groups (secondary school and urban pupils who generally spend more time in sedentary behaviour) than in low-risk groups (primary school and rural pupils who generally spend less time in sedentary behaviour). The exploratory analyses showed comparable findings. CONCLUSIONS: This regulatory intervention has been effective in reducing total and specific types of sedentary behaviour among Chinese children and adolescents, with the potential to reduce health inequalities. International researchers and policy makers may explore the feasibility and acceptability of implementing regulatory interventions on sedentary behaviour elsewhere.

Earlier routine induction of labor-Consequences on mother and child morbidity.

A growing number of birth interventions had led to a concern for potential health consequences. This study investigates the consequences of earlier routine labor induction. It exploits a natural experiment caused by the introduction of new Danish obstetric guidelines in 2011. Consequently, routine labor induction was moved forward from 14 to 10-13 days past the expected due date (EDD) and extended antenatal surveillance was introduced from 7 days past the EDD. Using administrative data, I find that affected mothers on average had a 9-11 percentage points (32%-38%) higher risk of being induced the following years. Yet, mother and child short- and medium-term morbidity were largely unaffected.

Roadway construction as a natural experiment to examine air pollution impacts on infant health.

Traffic-related air pollution (TRAP) poses a significant public health risk that is associated with adverse birth outcomes. Large roadway infrastructure projects present a natural experiment to examine how resulting congestion change is associated with adverse birth outcomes for nearby populations. This study is designed to examine the influence of living close to a roadway before, during, and after a construction project using a difference-in-differences design. We integrated data on all large roadway construction projects (defined as widening of existing roads, building new roads, improving bridges, installing intelligent transportation systems, improving intersections, and installing or upgrading traffic signals) in Texas from 2007 to 2016 with Vital Statistic data for all births with residential addresses within 1 km of construction projects. Our outcomes included term low birth weight, term birth weight, preterm birth, and very preterm birth. Using a difference-in-differences design, we included births within 3 years of construction start and 2 years of construction end. In our main model, the exposed group is limited to pregnant individuals residing within 300 m of a construction project, and the control group includes those living within 300-1000 m from a project. We used regression models to estimate the influence of construction on infant health. We included 1,360 large roadway construction projects linked to 408,979 births. During construction, we found that the odds of term low birth weight increased by 19% (95% CI: 1.05, 1.36). However, we saw little evidence of an association for other birth outcomes. Contrary to our hypothesis of decreased TRAP after construction ends, we did not observe consistent improvements post-construction for pregnant individuals living within 300 m. Continued consideration of the influence of traffic congestion programs on birth outcomes is necessary to inform future policy decisions.

Whether the green credit policy effectively promote green transition of enterprises in China? Empirical analysis and mechanism verification.

Promoting green and low-carbon development has become the consensus of the policymakers and the academic, with green transformation of enterprises being the top priority. This paper adopts the difference-in-difference model to investigate the effect of green credit policy on green transition in China, by utilizing the "Green Credit Guidelines" (2012 Guidelines) policy as a quasi-natural experiment. Using panel data from publicly listed companies in China, an empirical investigation is conducted, we explain the dependent variable from two dimensions: economic performance and environmental performance, leading to the following results. First, the green credit policy affects the economic performance and environmental performance of treated firms positively, and the robust tests confirm the reliability of this primary conclusion. Second, the indirect impact of green credit policy on green transition can be explained through two mediating mechanism channels including internal capacity building and external market attention. In addition, the proposal of "Dual Carbon Targets" makes the impact a slight change. Finally, heterogeneous test also shows that the implementation effect of green credit policy is better in non-state-owned enterprises with high political relevance. These findings are providing valuable insights to promote green transition by designing more effective green credit policies.

How does new energy demonstration city pilot policy affect carbon dioxide emissions? Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China.

Energy transition policies are of great significance in adjusting the structure of energy supply and demand and coping with climate change. The new energy demonstration city pilot (NEDCP) policy, as an important pilot project in China's energy transition process, lacks a scientific assessment of the carbon reduction effect of the NEDCP policy and an in-depth explanation of the mechanism of the NEDCP. Based on panel data of 209 Chinese cities at the prefectural and higher levels from 2007 to 2019, this study takes the NEDCP policy as a quasi-natural experiment, using a difference-in-differences model combined with firm-level data to identify the impact of the NEDCP policy on urban carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. This study analyzes the impact of heterogeneity of urban characteristics on the policy effect from multiple perspectives, and further investigates its mechanism. The conclusions are shown in the following aspects. (1) The implementation of the NEDCP policy decreases urban CO2 emissions significantly. Meanwhile, a series of robustness tests, including the instrumental variables method, propensity score matching difference-in-differences method, placebo test, exclusion of policy interference test, and machine learning method, support this conclusion. (2) The NEDCP policy achieves carbon reduction effects mainly through scale and structure effects. (3) The results of the heterogeneity test show that the NEDCP policy is more effective in cities with higher administrative levels, energy-demanding cities, cities in the southeast of Hu-line, and cities with a higher degree of nationalization. Therefore, the Chinese government should summarize the implementation experience of the NEDCP policy and expand its scope of application. The evaluation of the NEDCP policy in China has important reference value for the energy transition of other developing countries.

Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 incidence and deaths: cross-national natural experiment in 32 European countries.

PURPOSE: Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been the cornerstone of COVID-19 pandemic control, but evidence on their effectiveness varies according to the methods and approaches taken to empirical analysis. We analysed the impact of NPIs on incident SARS-CoV-2 across 32 European countries (March-December 2020) using two NPI trackers: the Corona Virus Pandemic Policy Monitor - COV-PPM, and the Oxford Covid-19 Government Response Tracker - OxCGRT. METHODS: NPIs were summarized through principal component analysis into three sets, stratified by two waves (C1-C3, weeks 5-25, and C4-C6, weeks 35-52). Longitudinal, multi-level mixed-effects negative binomial regression models were fitted to estimate incidence rate ratios for cases and deaths considering different time-lags and reverse causation (i.e. changing incidence causing NPIs), stratified by waves and geographical regions (Western, Eastern, Northern, Southern, Others). RESULTS: During the first wave, restrictions on movement/mobility, public transport, public events, and public spaces (C1) and healthcare system improvements, border closures and restrictions to public institutions (C2) were associated with a reduction in SARS-CoV-2 incidence after 28 and 35-days. Mask policies (C3) were associated with a reduction in SARS-CoV-2 incidence (except after 35-days). During wave 1, C1 and C2 were associated with a decrease in deaths after 49-days and C3 after 21, 28 and 35-days. During wave 2, restrictions on movement/mobility, public transport and healthcare system improvements (C5) were also associated with a decrease in SARS-CoV-2 cases and deaths across all countries. CONCLUSION: In the absence of pre-existing immunity, vaccines or treatment options, our results suggest that the observed implementation of different categories of NPIs, showed varied associations with SARS-CoV-2 incidence and deaths across regions, and varied associations across waves. These relationships were consistent across components of NPIs derived from two policy trackers (CoV-PPM and OxCGRT).

Measuring the association between the opening of a new multi-national restaurant with young people's eating behaviours.

Out-of-home eating (takeaway, take-out and fast-foods) is associated with intakes of higher energy and fat, and lower intakes of micronutrients, and is associated with excess weight gain. In 2017, a unique opportunity arose to measure the association between the opening of a new multi-national fast-food restaurant (McDonald's) and consumption of fast-food on young people aged 11-16. This study uses a repeated cross-sectional design to explore group level change over time with respect to out-of-home eating behaviours of young people. Two secondary schools in Redcar and Cleveland agreed to participate and facilitated the completion of a questionnaire on their pupils eating behaviours at three timepoints a) prior to the new restaurant opening, b) three months post-opening and c) nine months post opening. Reported frequency of visits to McDonald's showed a statistically significant increase in visits between 3 and 9 months of the restaurant opening. This research asks and explores the question of whether the introduction of a new multi-national fast-food restaurant influences eating habits of young people attending schools near the new outlet.

Short-term and long-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on child psychological well-being: a four-wave longitudinal study.

As the COVID-19 pandemic further unfolds, it becomes a key theoretical and practical question to identify trajectories of child psychological well-being and to explore risk and resilience factors for developmental adjustment. The current study addressed this research gap by means of an ecological design: A (lockdown)-B (relaxation)-B (relaxation)-A (lockdown). We collected parental reports via online questionnaires over four measurement occasions during the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany (non-probabilistic sample): from the first lockdown (T1-spring 2020, N = 1769) to the following period of relaxation (T2-summer 2020, n = 873; T3-fall 2020, n = 729) on to the second lockdown (T4-winter 2020/21, n = 748). Key measures at T1-T4 were child emotional and behavioral problems as well as hyperactivity, child emotional and family-related well-being, parental strain, and parent-child relationship quality. We found evidence for quadratic growth models. While child problem behaviors (b = 0.32, p < 0.001) and emotional well-being (b = - 0.33, p < 0.001) improved after the first lockdown during subsequent periods of relaxation before worsening again in the second lockdown, child family-related well-being steadily decreased over all four measurement points (T1-T2: p < 0.001; T2-T3: p = 0.045; T3-T4: p = 0.030). Importantly, parental stress emerged as a strong risk factor (ps < 0.11) and the parent-child relationship quality constituted a resilience factor (p = 0.049) for child psychological well-being. These findings have major implications for policies aiming to further child health during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Effect of COVID-19 lockdown on maternity care and maternal outcome in the Netherlands: a national quasi-experimental study.

OBJECTIVES: The COVID-19 pandemic and associated lockdowns disrupted health care worldwide. High-income countries observed a decrease in preterm births during lockdowns, but maternal pregnancy-related outcomes were also likely affected. This study investigates the effect of the first COVID-19 lockdown (March-June 2020) on provision of maternity care and maternal pregnancy-related outcomes in the Netherlands. STUDY DESIGN: National quasi-experimental study. METHODS: Multiple linked national registries were used, and all births from a gestational age of 24+0 weeks in 2010-2020 were included. In births starting in midwife-led primary care, we assessed the effect of lockdown on provision of care. In the general pregnant population, the impact on characteristics of labour and maternal morbidity was assessed. A difference-in-regression-discontinuity design was used to derive causal estimates for the year 2020. RESULTS: A total of 1,039,728 births were included. During the lockdown, births to women who started labour in midwife-led primary care (49%) more often ended at home (27% pre-lockdown, +10% [95% confidence interval: +7%, +13%]). A small decrease was seen in referrals towards obstetrician-led care during labour (46%, -3% [-5%,-0%]). In the overall group, no significant change was seen in induction of labour (27%, +1% [-1%, +3%]). We found no significant changes in the incidence of emergency caesarean section (9%, -1% [-2%, +0%]), obstetric anal sphincter injury (2%, +0% [-0%, +1%]), episiotomy (21%, -0% [-2%, +1%]), or post-partum haemorrhage: >1000 ml (6%, -0% [-1%, +1%]). CONCLUSIONS: During the first COVID-19 lockdown in the Netherlands, a substantial increase in homebirths was seen. There was no evidence for changed available maternal outcomes, suggesting that a maternity care system with a strong midwife-led primary care system may flexibly and safely adapt to external disruptions.