Cancer Demographics and Time-to-Care in Belize.

BACKGROUND: Belize is a middle-income Caribbean country with poorly described cancer epidemiology and no comprehensive cancer care capacity. In 2018, GO, Inc., a US-based NGO, partnered with the Ministry of Health and the national hospital in Belize City to create the first public oncology clinic in the country. Here, we report demographics from the clinic and describe time intervals to care milestones to allow for public health targeting of gaps. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Using paper charts and a mobile health platform, we performed a retrospective chart review at the Karl Heusner Memorial Hospital (KHMH) clinic from 2018 to 2022. RESULTS: During this time period, 465 patients with cancer presented to the clinic. Breast cancer (28%) and cervical cancer (12%) were most common. Most patients (68%) presented with stage 3 or 4 disease and were uninsured (78%) and unemployed (79%). Only 21% of patients ever started curative intent treatment. Median time from patient-reported symptoms to a biopsy or treatment was 130 and 189 days. For the most common cancer, breast, similar times were seen at 140 and 178 days. Time intervals at the clinic: <30 days from initial visit to biopsy (if not previously performed) and <30 days to starting chemotherapy. CONCLUSION: This study reports the first clinic-based cancer statistics for Belize. Many patients have months between symptom onset and treatment. In this setting, the clinic has built infrastructure allowing for minimal delays in care despite an underserved population. This further affirms the need for infrastructure investment and early detection programs to improve outcomes in Belize.

Trends and factors associated with HIV testing among women aged 15-49 years in Belize: an analysis using the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey 2006, 2011, and 2015-2016.

BACKGROUND: Belize has one of the highest human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome prevalence rates in Central America, with women of reproductive age being particularly vulnerable to HIV. Therefore, this study examined the factors associated with HIV testing among women of reproductive age in Belize and trends in HIV testing in 2006, 2011, and 2015-2016. METHODS: Cross-sectional data were analyzed using three Belize Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys. The number of participants were 1,675, 4,096, and 4,699 women aged 15-49 years in 2006, 2011, and 2015-2016, respectively. We used variance-weighted least-squares regression to estimate annual changes. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to evaluate the associated factors. Analyses were conducted using Stata version 15, and weights were applied for generalization to the population. RESULTS: HIV testing rates increased from 47.7% in 2006 to 66.5% in 2015, with an average annual change of 0.082 (95% confidence interval: 0.07-0.09). Logistic regression models showed that women aged 15-24 years were less likely to have been tested for HIV compared to women aged 25-34 years. Women from the Mayan ethnic group were less likely to have been tested than those from other ethnic groups. Compared to women who spoke Spanish, those who spoke English/Creole were more likely to have been tested for HIV; additionally, those who spoke minority languages were less likely to have been tested. Being married and having given birth were associated with increased odds of HIV testing. Living in rural areas and households with the poorest wealth indices were associated with decreased odds of being tested for HIV. Women with good HIV knowledge and accepting attitudes towards people living with HIV were more likely to be tested. CONCLUSIONS: From 2006 to 2015, HIV testing in women of reproductive age showed an increasing trend in Belize. We recommend interventions to expand HIV testing for women of reproductive age in Belize, particularly those aged 15-24 years, speaking minority languages, living in rural areas, and having a low socioeconomic status.

Performance of passive case detection for malaria surveillance: results from nine countries in Mesoamerica and the Dominican Republic.

BACKGROUND: In malaria elimination settings, available metrics for malaria surveillance have been insufficient to measure the performance of passive case detection adequately. An indicator for malaria suspected cases with malaria test (MSCT) is proposed to measure the rate of testing on persons presenting to health facilities who satisfy the definition of a suspected malaria case. This metric does not rely on prior knowledge of fever prevalence, seasonality, or external denominators, and can be used to compare detection rates in suspected cases within and between countries, including across settings with different levels of transmission. METHODS: To compute the MSCT, an operational definition for suspected malaria cases was established, including clinical and epidemiological criteria. In general, suspected cases included: (1) persons with fever detected in areas with active malaria transmission; (2) persons with fever identified in areas with no active transmission and travel history to, or residence in areas with active transmission (either national or international); and (3) persons presenting with fever, chills and sweating from any area. Data was collected from 9 countries: Belize, Colombia (in areas with active transmission), Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Panama (September-March 2020). A sample of eligible medical records for 2018 was selected from a sample of health facilities in each country. An algorithm was constructed to assess if a malaria test was ordered or performed for cases that met the suspected case definition. RESULTS: A sample of 5873 suspected malaria cases was obtained from 239 health facilities. Except for Nicaragua and Colombia, malaria tests were requested in less than 10% of all cases. More cases were tested in areas with active transmission than areas without cases. Travel history was not systematically recorded in any country. CONCLUSIONS: A statistically comparable, replicable, and standardized metric was proposed to measure suspected malaria cases with a test (microscopy or rapid diagnostic test) that enables assessing the performance of passive case detection. Cross-country findings have important implications for malaria and infectious disease surveillance, which should be promptly addressed as countries progress towards malaria elimination. Local and easy-to-implement tools could be implemented to assess and improve passive case detection.

Lobomycosis-like disease in common bottlenose dolphins Tursiops truncatus from Belize and Mexico: bridging the gap between the Americas.

Lobomycosis and lobomycosis-like diseases (LLD) (also: paracoccidioidomycosis) are chronic cutaneous infections that affect Delphinidae in tropical and subtropical regions worldwide. In the Americas, these diseases have been relatively well-described, but gaps still exist in our understanding of their distribution across the continent. Here we report on LLD affecting inshore bottlenose dolphins Tursiops truncatus from the Caribbean waters of Belize and from the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean off the southwestern coast of Mexico. Photo-identification and catalog data gathered between 1992 and 2017 for 371 and 41 individuals, respectively from Belize and Mexico, were examined for the presence of LLD. In Belize, 5 free-ranging and 1 stranded dolphin were found positive in at least 3 communities with the highest prevalence in the south. In Guerrero, Mexico, 4 inshore bottlenose dolphins sighted in 2014-2017 were affected by LLD. These data highlight the need for histological and molecular studies to confirm the etiological agent. Additionally, we document a single case of LLD in an adult Atlantic spotted dolphin Stenella frontalis in southern Belize, the first report in this species. The role of environmental and anthropogenic factors in the occurrence, severity, and epidemiology of LLD in South and Central America requires further investigation.

Folate Deficiency Is Prevalent in Women of Childbearing Age in Belize and Is Negatively Affected by Coexisting Vitamin B-12 Deficiency: Belize National Micronutrient Survey 2011.

Background: Folate deficiency, vitamin B-12 deficiency, and anemia can have adverse effects on birth outcomes. Also, low vitamin B-12 reduces the formation of metabolically active folate.Objectives: We sought to establish the baseline prevalence of and factors associated with folate deficiency and insufficiency, vitamin B-12 deficiency, and anemia among women of childbearing age (WCBA) in Belize.Methods: In 2011, a national probability-based survey was completed among Belizean nonpregnant WCBA aged 15-49 y. Blood samples for determination of hemoglobin, folate (RBC and serum), and vitamin B-12 (plasma) and sociodemographic and health information were collected from 937 women. RBC and serum folate concentrations were measured by microbiologic assay (MBA). Folate status was defined based on both the WHO-recommended radioproteinbinding assay and the assay adjusted for the MBA.Results: The national prevalence estimates for folate deficiency in WCBA, based on serum and RBC folate concentrations by using the assay-matched cutoffs, were 11.0% (95% CI: 8.6%, 14.0%) and 35.1% (95% CI: 31.3%, 39.2%), respectively. By using the assay-matched compared with the WHO-recommended cutoffs, a substantially higher prevalence of folate deficiency was observed based on serum (6.9% absolute difference) and RBC folate (28.9% absolute difference) concentrations. The prevalence for RBC folate insufficiency was 48.9% (95% CI: 44.8%, 53.1%). Prevalence estimates for vitamin B-12 deficiency and marginal deficiency and anemia were 17.2% (95% CI: 14.2%, 20.6%), 33.2% (95% CI: 29.6%, 37.1%), and 22.7% (95% CI: 19.5%, 26.2%), respectively. The adjusted geometric means of the RBC folate concentration increased significantly (P-trend < 0.001) in WCBA who had normal vitamin B-12 status relative to WCBA who were vitamin B-12 deficient.Conclusions: In Belize, the prevalence of folate and vitamin B-12 deficiencies continues to be a public health concern among WCBA. Furthermore, low folate status co-occurred with low vitamin B-12 status, underlining the importance of providing adequate vitamin B-12 and folic acid intake through approaches such as mandatory food fortification.

A mixed-methods needs assessment of adult diabetes mellitus (type II) and hypertension care in Toledo, Belize.

BACKGROUND: Non-communicable diseases, including diabetes mellitus and hypertension, continue to disproportionately burden low- and middle-income countries. However, little research has been done to establish current practices and management of chronic disease in these settings. The objective of this study was to examine current clinical management and identify potential gaps in care of patients with diabetes mellitus and hypertension in the district of Toledo, Belize. METHODS: The study used a mixed methodology to assess current practices and identify gaps in diabetes mellitus and hypertension care. One hundred and twenty charts of the general clinic population were reviewed to establish disease epidemiology. One hundred and seventy-eight diabetic and hypertensive charts were reviewed to assess current practices. Twenty providers completed questionnaires regarding diabetes mellitus and hypertension management. Twenty-five individuals with diabetes mellitus and/or hypertension answered a questionnaire and in-depth interview. RESULTS: The prevalence of diabetes mellitus and hypertension was 12%. Approximately 51% (n = 43) of patients with hypertension were at blood pressure goal and 26% (n = 21) diabetic patients were at glycemic goal based on current guidelines. Of the patients with uncontrolled diabetes, 49% (n = 29) were on two oral agents and only 10% (n = 6) were on insulin. Providers stated that barriers to appropriate management include concerns prescribing insulin and patient health literacy. Patients demonstrated a general understanding of the concept of chronic illness, however lacked specific knowledge regarding disease processes and self-management strategies. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides an initial overview of diabetes mellitus and hypertension management in a diverse patient population in rural Belize. Results indicate areas for future investigation and possible intervention, including barriers to insulin use and opportunities for lifestyle-specific disease education for patients.

Alcohol Use and HIV Prevention Among Personnel in the Belize Defence Force.

To evaluate the effect of a peer-based risk reduction project on alcohol use and sexual behavior within Belize Defence Force personnel. We used a quasi-experimental, mixed quantitative and qualitative methods design to evaluate project outcomes. Two serial cross-sectional surveys were conducted [baseline (n = 126) and 6-month follow-up (n = 128)] using computer assisted self-interview. Semistructured interviews were collected from 12 peer counselors 3 months after the beginning of the project. The proportion of respondents screening positive for alcohol dependence decreased significantly from 80 % at preintervention to 66 % at postintervention (p = 0.045), and the percentage of respondents reporting that they normally drink alcohol before work decreased from 11 to 3 % (p = 0.013). Alcohol abuse and dependency scores correlated positively with the overall number of sexual partners in both male and female respondents. There was a slight decrease in the percentage of female respondents' reporting inconsistent condom use for vaginal sex (baseline 100 %, follow-up 83 %, p = 0.088), but there was no appreciable change reported in condom use among male respondents. Qualitative findings suggest that techniques to reduce the quantity of alcohol consumed were a salient focus of peer counselors, and administrative barriers can readily mitigate implementation of such interventions. In this evaluation of a risk reduction program with the BDF, we found evidence of a reduction in types of alcohol use from baseline to follow-up. Alcohol-related risk reductions carry implications for reducing sexual risk behavior in military personnel. Future research with stronger experimental design strategies may better elucidate how substance use reduction is linked with sexual risk reduction in military personnel.

Zinc Deficiency in Latin America and the Caribbean.

BACKGROUND: Zinc deficiency affects multiple vital functions in the life cycle, especially growth. Limited information is available on the magnitude of zinc deficiency in Latin America and the Caribbean. OBJECTIVE: To examine the latest available information on both the prevalence of zinc deficiency and the risk of zinc deficiency in Latin America and the Caribbean. METHODS: The prevalence of zinc deficiency was identified through a systematic review looking for the latest available data on serum zinc concentrations from surveys or studies with national representativeness conducted in Latin America and the Caribbean. The risk of zinc deficiency in Latin America and the Caribbean was estimated based on dietary zinc inadequacy (according to the 2011 National Food Balance Sheets) and stunting in children under 5 years of age. RESULTS: Only four countries had available national biochemical data. Mexican, Colombian, Ecuadorian, and Guatemalan children under 6 years of age and women 12 to 49 years of age had a high prevalence of zinc deficiency (19.1% to 56.3%). The countries with the highest risk of zinc deficiency (estimated prevalence of inadequate zinc intake > 25% plus prevalence of stunting > 20%) were Belize, Bolivia, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Zinc dietary inadequacy was directly correlated with stunting (r = 0.64, p < .001). CONCLUSIONS: Prevalence data from the four available Latin America and Caribbean national surveys indicate a high prevalence of zinc deficiency in children under 6 years of age and women 12 to 49 years of age. High rates of both estimated zinc dietary inadequacy and stunting were also reported in most Latin America and Caribbean countries.

Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene Infrastructure and Resources in Schools in Belize during the COVID-19 Pandemic, 2021-2023.

Access to water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) resources in schools is critical for disease prevention and control, especially during public health emergencies. In Belize, systematic, national data on WASH in schools are needed to inform public health decisions and interventions. From December 2021 to January 2022, a national survey was sent electronically to government and government-aided primary and secondary schools in Belize (N = 308) to gather information on WASH services. From the survey, 12 pilot schools were selected based on the highest self-reported need for WASH resources to participate in additional evaluation and intervention, which included environmental nudges, supplemental supply provision, and hand hygiene education. To understand how the progression of the COVID-19 pandemic may have influenced hand hygiene, facility assessments to evaluate access to hand hygiene resources were conducted in person when most schools reopened for face-to-face learning during the pandemic (March 2022) and 15 months later (June 2023). Among the schools participating in the national survey (N = 221), 55% reported times when water was not available at the schools. Almost 9 in 10 schools (89%) had a functional handwashing station, and 47% reported always having soap for handwashing. Between baseline and follow-up at the 12 pilot schools, we observed decreases in the proportion of functional handwashing access points (-11%), functional handwashing access points accessible for individuals with disabilities (-17%) and small children (-29%), and functional alcohol-based hand rub dispensers (-13%). Despite the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, we observed gaps in WASH resources in schools in Belize during the onsite assessments at the pilot schools. Schools should be encouraged and provided with WASH resources to maintain vigilance for disease control measures.

Botfly parasitism and tourism on the endangered black howler monkey of Belize.

Tourism imposes costs and benefits on wild primates. Endangered black howler monkey (Alouatta pigra) troops with high exposure to tourism had higher levels of botfly (Alouattamyia baeri) parasitism. Edge habitat and juvenile numbers did not seem to confound the observed relationship. To improve the cost/benefit ratio of tourism, we recommend further investigation.

Achievement of the 2015 Millennium Development Goal 5A (Maternal Mortality) by Belize in 2011.

OBJECTIVE: Millennium Development Goal 5A, to decrease the maternal mortality ratio by three quarters between from 1990 to 2015, is proving difficult to achieve in many developing countries, including those in Mesoamerica. In this preliminary report from Belize we describe the major steps taken recently to improve maternal outcomes, leading to the achievement of Millennium Development Goal 5A in 2011, confounding all predictions. METHODS: In mid-2007, Belize deployed the world's first integrated countrywide health information system (BHIS), with eight embedded prevention/management domains. These included one centred on maternal health and covering best practices in prenatal, intrapartum, and postpartum care. The Ministry of Health and local maternal health care leaders used ongoing BHIS maternal data aggressively to detect health care system problems and to intervene to change outcomes. The maternal mortality ratios per 100 000 live births for 2005 to 2011 (i.e., from two years before BHIS deployment to four years after) were calculated from death and live birth data using Belize vital statistics. RESULTS: The maternal mortality ratio fell from 134.1 in 2005 to zero in 2011, with the major sustained drop occurring from 2008 onwards, coincident with implementation of the BHIS. The annual number of live births did not change over this time. CONCLUSION: Exceeding all expectations, Belize achieved Millennium Development Goal 5A in 2011, with a reduction in the maternal mortality ratio of well over three quarters. The drop in maternal mortality ratio was temporally associated with the introduction of the BHIS and its embedded maternal health domain. BHIS data were used aggressively to monitor and continuously improve maternal health care.

Exposure to open-fire cooking and cognitive performance in children.

We reexamined field data on cognitive performance in light of recent research that shows open-fire cooking--with its emission of harmful substances--to pose a risk to healthy physical development. Tests of three- to nine-year-old children in four communities around the world yielded evidence concerning block-building skills, memory, and the discernment of embedded figures. Naturalistic observations of these children were also undertaken in everyday settings. Open-fire cooking (as opposed to cooking on kerosene stoves) was associated with both lower cognitive performance and less frequent structured play at all ages. Although these correlational results do not reveal causal mechanisms, they are consistent with ideas about negative developmental consequences of exposure to open-fire cooking and suggest that research is needed on the effect on brain development of practices involving production of indoor smoke.

Treating uncorrected refractive error in adults in the developing world with autorefractors and ready-made spectacles.

BACKGROUND: To evaluate a method for treating uncorrected refractive error in adults in the developing world. DESIGN: Prospective, cross-sectional study in outpatient community health centres. PARTICIPANTS: Eight hundred and forty subjects aged 18 and older from rural villages in Haiti and Belize. METHODS: Undilated refractive error screening exams were conducted over a 5-day period in rural Haiti and Belize using portable autorefractors. Isometropic, spherical, ready-made spectacles were provided to patients with bilateral refractive error, astigmatism ≤ 1 dioptre in each eye and visual acuity worse than 6/9 in each eye. Visual acuity was measured with and without corrective spectacles. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The mean visual improvement and median final visual acuity after treatment with ready-made glasses. RESULTS: Eight hundred and forty patients aged 18 and older were screened with autorefractors. One hundred and eighty-nine subjects (22.5%) were found to have visually significant bilateral refractive error. Fifty-eight per cent (110/189) of these patients met criteria for treatment with ready-made spectacles. Visual acuity improved an average of 4.2 lines in the better eye and 4.1 lines in the worse eye with corrective glasses. The median visual acuity in the better eye was 6/6 after treatment. CONCLUSION: Autorefractors and ready-made spectacles allow for effective treatment of uncorrected refractive error in adults in the developing world.

The Botfly, A Tropical Menace: A Distinctive Myiasis Caused by Dermatobia hominis.

Dermatobia hominis, also known as the human botfly, is native to tropical and subtropical Central and South America and seen in travelers from endemic to temperate regions including the United States and Europe. Cutaneous infestation botfly myiasis involves the development of D. hominis larvae in the skin and is common in tropical locations. The distinct appearance of a cutaneous D. hominis infestation facilitates early diagnosis and intervention where cases are common. However, the identification of D. hominis in temperate regions may prove challenging due to its rarity. D. hominis may be misdiagnosed as folliculitis, an epidermal cyst, or an embedded foreign object with secondary impetigo. One should have a heightened suspicion in someone returning from a vacation in an endemic area, such as Belize. Here we describe the presentation, differential diagnosis, and treatment and encourage enhanced preventative measures among tourists when visiting tropical and subtropical regions. Additionally, we propose a novel classification system for assessing the various stages of infestation and suggest that patients reporting travel to Latin America and experiencing pain disproportionate to an insect bite should lead physicians to consider myiasis caused by D. hominis.

Barriers and facilitators to past six-month HIV testing among men who have sex with men in Belize.

Prevalence of HIV in Belize is high, and men who have sex with men (MSM) are disproportionately impacted by HIV. HIV testing is critical in curbing the epidemic; however, little is known about factors associated with testing among MSM in Belize. Working with a non-governmental organization in a large, urban city within Belize, snowball sampling was applied to recruit Belizean MSM to complete a self-administered survey. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was employed to understand associations with HIV screening behavior. Access to healthcare, HIV knowledge, and reporting having heard of Section 53 of the Criminal Code of Belize (once outlawing same-sex sexual behavior), but not experiencing any negative impact from Section 53 were significantly positively associated with having received an HIV test in the past six months. Healthcare maltreatment (lifetime), depression symptomology, and shame were significantly negatively associated with having received a HIV test in the past six months. Findings suggest that multiple factors associated with stigma and discrimination negatively affect testing strategies among MSM in Belize.

Is it time to use nucleic acid amplification tests for identification of persons with sexually transmitted infections?: evidence from seroprevalence and behavioral epidemiology risk surveys in men with chlamydia and gonorrhea.

Chlamydia and gonorrhea are common sexually transmitted infections (STIs) that can cause multiple problems, and can be easily treated, but frequently present without symptoms. Because of this, commonly used syndromic diagnosis misses a majority of infected persons. Previously, diagnostic tests were expensive and invasive, but newer nucleic-acid amplification tests (NAATs) are available that use urine to non-invasively test for these infections. These analyses used data from seroprevalence studies conducted in five militaries. Data included self-reported current symptoms of STIs as well as chlamydia and gonorrhea NAAT results. A total of 4923 men were screened for chlamydia and gonorrhea from these 5 militaries during April 2016 to October 2017. The combined prevalence of chlamydia and gonorrhea in these five militaries ranged from 2.3% in Burundi to 11.9% in Belize. These infections were not successfully identified by symptomology; for example, only 2% of cases in Belize reported symptoms. In three of the five countries there was no statistical association between symptoms and positive NAAT results. The majority of individuals with these infections (81% to 98%) would be undiagnosed and untreated using only symptomology. Therefore, using symptoms alone to diagnose cases of chlamydia and gonorrhea is not an effective way to control these infections. We propose that automated, cartridge-based NAATs, be considered for routine use in diagnosing those at risk for STIs.

Making mental health a priority in Belize.

Belize, Central America, the most sparsely populated country in Central America, has taken gigantic steps to improve the mental health of its citizens. This article profiles mental health in this country and explicates contextual factors circumscribing manifestations, treatment, and care of mental illness. An overview of mental health services is provided, with particular focus on the role of psychiatric nurse practitioners. Other innovative approaches in promoting mental health and providing care to the those who are mentally ill are highlighted. Current and future challenges for nursing care and mental health services are presented. Recommendations for future action are offered.

Struggles for maintenance: Patient activism and dialysis dilemmas amidst a global diabetes epidemic.

Diabetes has become a leading cause of death in Belize, making this Central American country emblematic of challenges amplified by a growing global diabetes epidemic. The struggles people face as they seek care for chronic conditions like diabetes (and its complications such as kidney failure) are bringing citizens and institutions alike to revisit longstanding norms about the terms through which healthcare is accessed. Ethnographically tracing Belize's first patient-driven healthcare protests and activism - an ad hoc movement for public dialysis that began over a decade ago - this paper examines patients' and caregivers' struggles to probe and shape a legacy of social justice health activism, drawing on perspectives from an often-overlooked part of Central America where basic healthcare access has not historically been framed as a right of citizens. It considers these dilemmas in relation to much larger chronic struggles 'to maintain' and repair bodies, medical technologies, and health systems in the aftermath of colonial legacies - with special attention to the challenges posed for small countries now facing rising issues of diabetes injuries and chronic complications - and the role of civic media and citizen activism in this context.

Managing an epidemic: Zika interventions and community responses in Belize.

Implementing effective health interventions in recent epidemics has been difficult due to the potentially global nature of their spread and sociocultural dynamics, raising questions concerning how to develop culturally-appropriate preventive measures, and how these health threats are understood locally. In Belize, health policy makers have only been marginally effective in managing infections and mosquito vectors, and Zika has been declared endemic in certain regions, particularly on the island of Caye Caulker. Based on ethnographic research conducted primarily in 2017, we examine how perspectives of Zika-related health consequences are shaped, and how state interventions to manage Zika are understood. We argue that despite its declared endemic status, Zika is not perceived as a true health concern for community members due to numerous neoliberal structural challenges. Moreover, the state's restrictive form of reproductive governance which limits family planning services is forcing individuals to weigh conflicting conceptions of health consequences. This also contributes to an ambiguous healthcare environment for health practitioners, giving them an unclear picture of the scope of Zika as a public health concern. We also consider how critical medical anthropology and feminist analytical approaches are useful in exploring these questions and contributing to understandings of the health impacts of Zika.

Caribbean climate change vulnerability: Lessons from an aggregate index approach.

The study examines the potential influence of sub-regional variations in climate, and specifically heavy rain events, in determining relative vulnerabilities of locations in twelve Caribbean countries. An aggregate vulnerability index, referred to as the Caribbean Vulnerability Score (CVS), is created using historical demographic and socioeconomic data and climate data representing extreme rain events. Four scenarios are explored. Firstly, comparative vulnerabilities are determined when heavy rainfall is incorporated in CVS versus when it is excluded. The impact of climate change is also investigated using future climate data derived from statistical downscaling but holding demographic and socioeconomic sub-indices constant. The analysis is repeated with projections of future demographic structure from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway data (SSP3), future climate projections and constant socioeconomic. Finally, the sensitivity of the results is examined with respect to applying different weights i.e. versus using equal weights for the climate and non-climatic components of CVS as is done for the first three scenarios. Results suggest that the inclusion of historical susceptibility to rainfall extremes influences relative vulnerabilities within the Caribbean when compared to the rankings of vulnerability derived using only socioeconomic and demographic inputs. In some cases significant increases in relative rankings are noted. Projected changes in the intensity of rain events across the Caribbean region in the 2030s and 2050s, do not significantly alter the top and lowest ranked vulnerable locations when demographic and socioeconomic indices are held constant. Changes may however occur in the order of the top ranked locations dependent on scenario and time slice. In general, future shifts in relative vulnerabilities were found to be dependent on (i) changes in both future climate and demographic scenarios, (ii) the time horizons being considered, and (iii) the weighting assigned to climate in the future.