ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: The 20-year UK Prospective Diabetes Study showed major clinical benefits for people with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes randomly allocated to intensive glycaemic control with sulfonylurea or insulin therapy or metformin therapy, compared with conventional glycaemic control. 10-year post-trial follow-up identified enduring and emerging glycaemic and metformin legacy treatment effects. We aimed to determine whether these effects would wane by extending follow-up for another 14 years. METHODS: 5102 patients enrolled between 1977 and 1991, of whom 4209 (82·5%) participants were originally randomly allocated to receive either intensive glycaemic control (sulfonylurea or insulin, or if overweight, metformin) or conventional glycaemic control (primarily diet). At the end of the 20-year interventional trial, 3277 surviving participants entered a 10-year post-trial monitoring period, which ran until Sept 30, 2007. Eligible participants for this study were all surviving participants at the end of the 10-year post-trial monitoring period. An extended follow-up of these participants was done by linking them to their routinely collected National Health Service (NHS) data for another 14 years. Clinical outcomes were derived from records of deaths, hospital admissions, outpatient visits, and accident and emergency unit attendances. We examined seven prespecified aggregate clinical outcomes (ie, any diabetes-related endpoint, diabetes-related death, death from any cause, myocardial infarction, stroke, peripheral vascular disease, and microvascular disease) by the randomised glycaemic control strategy on an intention-to-treat basis using Kaplan-Meier time-to-event and log-rank analyses. This study is registered with the ISRCTN registry, number ISRCTN75451837. FINDINGS: Between Oct 1, 2007, and Sept 30, 2021, 1489 (97·6%) of 1525 participants could be linked to routinely collected NHS administrative data. Their mean age at baseline was 50·2 years (SD 8·0), and 41·3% were female. The mean age of those still alive as of Sept 30, 2021, was 79·9 years (SD 8·0). Individual follow-up from baseline ranged from 0 to 42 years, median 17·5 years (IQR 12·3-26·8). Overall follow-up increased by 21%, from 66 972 to 80 724 person-years. For up to 24 years after trial end, the glycaemic and metformin legacy effects showed no sign of waning. Early intensive glycaemic control with sulfonylurea or insulin therapy, compared with conventional glycaemic control, showed overall relative risk reductions of 10% (95% CI 2-17; p=0·015) for death from any cause, 17% (6-26; p=0·002) for myocardial infarction, and 26% (14-36; p<0·0001) for microvascular disease. Corresponding absolute risk reductions were 2·7%, 3·3%, and 3·5%, respectively. Early intensive glycaemic control with metformin therapy, compared with conventional glycaemic control, showed overall relative risk reductions of 20% (95% CI 5-32; p=0·010) for death from any cause and 31% (12-46; p=0·003) for myocardial infarction. Corresponding absolute risk reductions were 4·9% and 6·2%, respectively. No significant risk reductions during or after the trial for stroke or peripheral vascular disease were observed for both intensive glycaemic control groups, and no significant risk reduction for microvascular disease was observed for metformin therapy. INTERPRETATION: Early intensive glycaemic control with sulfonylurea or insulin, or with metformin, compared with conventional glycaemic control, appears to confer a near-lifelong reduced risk of death and myocardial infarction. Achieving near normoglycaemia immediately following diagnosis might be essential to minimise the lifetime risk of diabetes-related complications to the greatest extent possible. FUNDING: University of Oxford Nuffield Department of Population Health Pump Priming.
Subject(s)
Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 , Hypoglycemic Agents , Insulin , Metformin , Sulfonylurea Compounds , Humans , Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/drug therapy , Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/blood , Hypoglycemic Agents/therapeutic use , Female , Insulin/therapeutic use , Male , Sulfonylurea Compounds/therapeutic use , Metformin/therapeutic use , Middle Aged , Follow-Up Studies , Aged , Glycemic Control/methods , United Kingdom/epidemiology , Glycated Hemoglobin/analysis , Adult , Treatment Outcome , Blood Glucose/drug effects , Blood Glucose/analysisABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: The incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus is increasing among youths. Once-weekly treatment with dulaglutide, a glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist, may have efficacy with regard to glycemic control in youths with type 2 diabetes. METHODS: In a double-blind, placebo-controlled, 26-week trial, we randomly assigned participants (10 to <18 years of age; body-mass index [BMI], >85th percentile) being treated with lifestyle modifications alone or with metformin, with or without basal insulin, in a 1:1:1 ratio to receive once-weekly subcutaneous injections of placebo, dulaglutide at a dose of 0.75 mg, or dulaglutide at a dose of 1.5 mg. Participants were then included in a 26-week open-label extension study in which those who had received placebo began receiving dulaglutide at a weekly dose of 0.75 mg. The primary end point was the change from baseline in the glycated hemoglobin level at 26 weeks. Secondary end points included a glycated hemoglobin level of less than 7.0% and changes from baseline in the fasting glucose concentration and BMI. Safety was also assessed. RESULTS: A total of 154 participants underwent randomization. At 26 weeks, the mean glycated hemoglobin level had increased in the placebo group (0.6 percentage points) and had decreased in the dulaglutide groups (-0.6 percentage points in the 0.75-mg group and -0.9 percentage points in the 1.5-mg group, P<0.001 for both comparisons vs. placebo). At 26 weeks, a higher percentage of participants in the pooled dulaglutide groups than in the placebo group had a glycated hemoglobin level of less than 7.0% (51% vs. 14%, P<0.001). The fasting glucose concentration increased in the placebo group (17.1 mg per deciliter) and decreased in the pooled dulaglutide groups (-18.9 mg per deciliter, P<0.001), and there were no between-group differences in the change in BMI. The incidence of gastrointestinal adverse events was higher with dulaglutide therapy than with placebo. The safety profile of dulaglutide was consistent with that reported in adults. CONCLUSIONS: Treatment with dulaglutide at a once-weekly dose of 0.75 mg or 1.5 mg was superior to placebo in improving glycemic control through 26 weeks among youths with type 2 diabetes who were being treated with or without metformin or basal insulin, without an effect on BMI. (Funded by Eli Lilly; AWARD-PEDS ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02963766.).
Subject(s)
Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 , Hypoglycemic Agents , Adolescent , Blood Glucose/drug effects , Child , Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/blood , Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/drug therapy , Double-Blind Method , Glucagon-Like Peptides/analogs & derivatives , Glycated Hemoglobin/analysis , Humans , Hypoglycemic Agents/administration & dosage , Hypoglycemic Agents/therapeutic use , Immunoglobulin Fc Fragments/administration & dosage , Immunoglobulin Fc Fragments/therapeutic use , Injections, Subcutaneous , Insulins/therapeutic use , Metformin/therapeutic use , Recombinant Fusion Proteins/administration & dosage , Recombinant Fusion Proteins/therapeutic use , Treatment OutcomeABSTRACT
Skeletal muscle is a major site of postprandial glucose disposal. Inadequate insulin action in skeletal myocytes contributes to hyperglycemia in diabetes. Although glucose is known to stimulate insulin secretion by ß cells, whether it directly engages nutrient signaling pathways in skeletal muscle to maintain systemic glucose homeostasis remains largely unexplored. Here we identified the Baf60c-Deptor-AKT pathway as a target of muscle glucose sensing that augments insulin action in skeletal myocytes. Genetic activation of this pathway improved postprandial glucose disposal in mice, whereas its muscle-specific ablation impaired insulin action and led to postprandial glucose intolerance. Mechanistically, glucose triggers KATP channel-dependent calcium signaling, which promotes HDAC5 phosphorylation and nuclear exclusion, leading to Baf60c induction and insulin-independent AKT activation. This pathway is engaged by the anti-diabetic sulfonylurea drugs to exert their full glucose-lowering effects. These findings uncover an unexpected mechanism of glucose sensing in skeletal myocytes that contributes to homeostasis and therapeutic action.
Subject(s)
Blood Glucose/metabolism , Energy Metabolism , Muscle Fibers, Skeletal/metabolism , Signal Transduction , Animals , Blood Glucose/drug effects , Cell Line , Chromosomal Proteins, Non-Histone/genetics , Chromosomal Proteins, Non-Histone/metabolism , Energy Metabolism/drug effects , Enzyme Activation , Histone Deacetylases/genetics , Histone Deacetylases/metabolism , Homeostasis , Humans , Hypoglycemic Agents/pharmacology , Insulin/blood , Intracellular Signaling Peptides and Proteins/genetics , Intracellular Signaling Peptides and Proteins/metabolism , KATP Channels/metabolism , Mice , Mice, Inbred C57BL , Mice, Knockout , Muscle Fibers, Skeletal/drug effects , Muscle Proteins/genetics , Muscle Proteins/metabolism , Postprandial Period , Proto-Oncogene Proteins c-akt/metabolism , Signal Transduction/drug effects , Sulfonylurea Compounds/pharmacology , Time Factors , Tissue Culture TechniquesABSTRACT
SOURCE CITATION: Yao H, Zhang A, Li D, et al. Comparative effectiveness of GLP-1 receptor agonists on glycaemic control, body weight, and lipid profile for type 2 diabetes: systematic review and network meta-analysis. BMJ. 2024;384:e076410. 38286487.
Subject(s)
Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 , Glucagon-Like Peptide-1 Receptor , Hypoglycemic Agents , Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/drug therapy , Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/blood , Humans , Glucagon-Like Peptide-1 Receptor/agonists , Hypoglycemic Agents/therapeutic use , Hypoglycemic Agents/adverse effects , Body Weight/drug effects , Blood Glucose/metabolism , Blood Glucose/drug effectsABSTRACT
Diabetes is one of the most prevalent diseases worldwide. In recent decades, type-2 diabetes has become increasingly common, particularly in younger individuals. Diabetes leads to many vascular complications, including atherosclerosis. Atherosclerosis is a cardiovascular disease characterized by lipid-rich plaques within the vasculature. Plaques develop over time, restricting blood flow, and can, therefore, be the underlying cause of major adverse cardiovascular events, including myocardial infarction and stroke. Diabetes and atherosclerosis are intrinsically linked. Diabetes is a metabolic syndrome that accelerates atherosclerosis and increases the risk of developing other comorbidities, such as diabetes-associated atherosclerosis (DAA). Gold standard antidiabetic medications focus on attenuating hyperglycemia. Though recent evidence suggests that glucose-lowering drugs may have broader applications, beyond diabetes management. This review mainly evaluates the role of glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1 RAs), such as liraglutide and semaglutide in DAA. These drugs mimic gut hormones (incretins), which inhibit glucagon secretion while stimulating insulin secretion, thus improving insulin sensitivity. This facilitates delayed gastric emptying and increased patient satiety; hence, they are also indicated for the treatment of obesity. GLP-1 RAs have significant cardioprotective effects, including decreasing low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol and triglycerides levels. Liraglutide and semaglutide have specifically been shown to decrease cardiovascular risk. Liraglutide has displayed a myriad of antiatherosclerotic properties, with the potential to induce plaque regression. This review aims to address how glucose-lowering medications can be applied to treat diseases other than diabetes. We specifically focus on how nanomedicines can be used for the site-specific delivery of antidiabetic medicines for the treatment of diabetes-associated atherosclerosis.
Subject(s)
Atherosclerosis , Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 , Hypoglycemic Agents , Humans , Atherosclerosis/drug therapy , Atherosclerosis/metabolism , Hypoglycemic Agents/therapeutic use , Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/drug therapy , Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/metabolism , Animals , Glucagon-Like Peptide-1 Receptor/agonists , Glucagon-Like Peptide-1 Receptor/metabolism , Blood Glucose/metabolism , Blood Glucose/drug effects , Drug Delivery Systems/methodsABSTRACT
Activation of incretin receptors by their cognate agonist augments sustained cAMP generation both from the plasma membrane as well as from the endosome. To address the functional outcome of this spatiotemporal signaling, we developed a nonacylated glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) and glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide (GIP) receptor dual agonist I-M-150847 that reduced receptor internalization following activation of the incretin receptors. The incretin receptor dual agonist I-M-150847 was developed by replacing the tryptophan cage of exendin-4 tyrosine substituted at the amino terminus with the C-terminal undecapeptide sequence of oxyntomodulin that placed lysine 30 of I-M-150847 in frame with the corresponding lysine residue of GIP. The peptide I-M-150847 is a partial agonist of GLP-1R and GIPR; however, the receptors, upon activation by I-M-150847, undergo reduced internalization that promotes agonist-mediated iterative cAMP signaling and augments glucose-stimulated insulin exocytosis in pancreatic ß cells. Chronic administration of I-M-150847 improved glycemic control, enhanced insulin sensitivity, and provided profound weight loss in diet-induced obese (DIO) mice. Our results demonstrated that despite being a partial agonist, I-M-150847, by reducing the receptor internalization upon activation, enhanced the incretin effect and reversed obesity.NEW & NOTEWORTHY Replacement of the tryptophan cage (Trp-cage) with the C-terminal oxyntomodulin undecapeptide along with the tyrosine substitution at the amino terminus converts the selective glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor (GLP-1R) agonist exendin-4 to a novel GLP-1R and GIPR dual agonist I-M-150847. Reduced internalization of incretin receptors upon activation by the GLP-1R and GIPR dual agonist I-M-150847 promotes iterative receptor signaling that enhances the incretin effect and reverses obesity.
Subject(s)
Glucagon-Like Peptide-1 Receptor , Incretins , Mice, Inbred C57BL , Obesity , Animals , Obesity/metabolism , Obesity/drug therapy , Glucagon-Like Peptide-1 Receptor/agonists , Glucagon-Like Peptide-1 Receptor/metabolism , Mice , Male , Incretins/pharmacology , Incretins/metabolism , Protein Transport/drug effects , Glycemic Control/methods , Mice, Obese , Receptors, Gastrointestinal Hormone/agonists , Receptors, Gastrointestinal Hormone/metabolism , Insulin-Secreting Cells/metabolism , Insulin-Secreting Cells/drug effects , Humans , Diet, High-Fat/adverse effects , Blood Glucose/metabolism , Blood Glucose/drug effects , Insulin/metabolism , Exenatide/pharmacology , Signal Transduction/drug effects , Cyclic AMP/metabolismABSTRACT
The increasing incidence of type 2 diabetes, which represents 90% of diabetes cases globally, is a major public health concern. Improved glucose management reduces the risk of vascular complications and mortality; however, only a small proportion of the type 2 diabetes population have blood glucose levels within the recommended treatment targets. In recent years, diabetes technologies have revolutionised the care of people with type 1 diabetes, and it is becoming increasingly evident that people with type 2 diabetes can also benefit from these advances. In this review, we describe the current knowledge regarding the role of technologies for people living with type 2 diabetes and the evidence supporting their use in clinical practice. We conclude that continuous glucose monitoring systems deliver glycaemic benefits for individuals with type 2 diabetes, whether treated with insulin or non-insulin therapy; further data are required to evaluate the role of these systems in those with prediabetes (defined as impaired glucose tolerance and/or impaired fasting glucose and/or HbA1c levels between 39 mmol/mol [5.7%] and 47 mmol/mol [6.4%]). The use of insulin pumps seems to be safe and effective in people with type 2 diabetes, especially in those with an HbA1c significantly above target. Initial results from studies exploring the impact of closed-loop systems in type 2 diabetes are promising. We discuss directions for future research to fully understand the potential benefits of integrating evidence-based technology into care for people living with type 2 diabetes and prediabetes.
Subject(s)
Blood Glucose , Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 , Prediabetic State , Humans , Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/drug therapy , Prediabetic State/drug therapy , Blood Glucose/metabolism , Blood Glucose/drug effects , Blood Glucose Self-Monitoring , Insulin Infusion Systems , Insulin/therapeutic use , Hypoglycemic Agents/therapeutic use , Glycated Hemoglobin/metabolismABSTRACT
AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The aim of the present study was to conduct a randomised, placebo-controlled, double-blind, crossover trial to determine whether pre-meal ketone monoester ingestion reduces postprandial glucose concentrations in individuals with type 2 diabetes. METHODS: In this double-blind, placebo-controlled, crossover design study, ten participants with type 2 diabetes (age 59±1.7 years, 50% female, BMI 32±1 kg/m2, HbA1c 54±2 mmol/mol [7.1±0.2%]) were randomised using computer-generated random numbers. The study took place at the Nutritional Physiology Research Unit, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK. Using a dual-glucose tracer approach, we assessed glucose kinetics after the ingestion of a 0.5 g/kg body mass ketone monoester (KME) or a taste-matched non-caloric placebo before a mixed-meal tolerance test. The primary outcome measure was endogenous glucose production. Secondary outcome measures were total glucose appearance rate and exogenous glucose appearance rate, glucose disappearance rate, blood glucose, serum insulin, ß-OHB and NEFA levels, and energy expenditure. RESULTS: Data for all ten participants were analysed. KME ingestion increased mean ± SEM plasma beta-hydroxybutyrate from 0.3±0.03 mmol/l to a peak of 4.3±1.2 mmol/l while reducing 2 h postprandial glucose concentrations by ~18% and 4 h postprandial glucose concentrations by ~12%, predominately as a result of a 28% decrease in the 2 h rate of glucose appearance following meal ingestion (all p<0.05). The reduction in blood glucose concentrations was associated with suppressed plasma NEFA concentrations after KME ingestion, with no difference in plasma insulin concentrations between the control and KME conditions. Postprandial endogenous glucose production was unaffected by KME ingestion (mean ± SEM 0.76±0.15 and 0.88±0.10 mg kg-1 min-1 for the control and KME, respectively). No adverse effects of KME ingestion were observed. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: KME ingestion appears to delay glucose absorption in adults with type 2 diabetes, thereby reducing postprandial glucose concentrations. Future work to explore the therapeutic potential of KME supplementation in type 2 diabetes is warranted. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT05518448. FUNDING: This project was supported by a Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR) Project Grant (PJT-169116) and a Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (NSERC) Discovery Grant (RGPIN-2019-05204) awarded to JPL and an Exeter-UBCO Sports Health Science Fund Project Grant awarded to FBS and JPL.
Subject(s)
Blood Glucose , Cross-Over Studies , Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 , Ketones , Postprandial Period , Humans , Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/blood , Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/drug therapy , Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/metabolism , Female , Middle Aged , Blood Glucose/metabolism , Blood Glucose/drug effects , Male , Double-Blind Method , Ketones/blood , 3-Hydroxybutyric Acid/blood , Insulin/blood , BeveragesABSTRACT
The role of automated insulin delivery systems in diabetes is expanding. Hybrid closed-loop systems are being used in routine clinical practice for treating people with type 1 diabetes. Encouragingly, real-world data reflects the performance and usability observed in clinical trials. We review the commercially available hybrid closed-loop systems, their distinctive features and the associated real-world data. We also consider emerging indications for closed-loop systems, including the treatment of type 2 diabetes where variability of day-to-day insulin requirements is high, and other challenging applications for this technology. We discuss issues around access and implementation of closed-loop technology, and consider the limitations of present closed-loop systems, as well as innovative approaches that are being evaluated to improve their performance.
Subject(s)
Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1 , Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 , Insulin Infusion Systems , Insulin , Humans , Insulin/administration & dosage , Insulin/therapeutic use , Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1/drug therapy , Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1/blood , Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/drug therapy , Hypoglycemic Agents/administration & dosage , Hypoglycemic Agents/therapeutic use , Blood Glucose/metabolism , Blood Glucose/drug effects , Blood Glucose/analysisABSTRACT
This review outlines some of the extraordinary recent advances in diabetes technology, which are transforming the management of type 1 diabetes before, during and after pregnancy. It highlights recent improvements associated with use of continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) but acknowledges that neither CGM nor insulin pump therapy are adequate for achieving the pregnancy glucose targets. Furthermore, even hybrid closed-loop (HCL) systems that are clinically effective outside of pregnancy may not confer additional benefits throughout pregnancy. To date, there is only one HCL system, the CamAPS FX, with a strong evidence base for use during pregnancy, suggesting that the pregnancy benefits are HCL system specific. This is in stark contrast to HCL system use outside of pregnancy, where benefits are HCL category specific. The CamAPS FX HCL system has a rapidly adaptive algorithm and lower glucose targets with benefits across all maternal glucose categories, meaning that it is applicable for all women with type 1 diabetes, before and during pregnancy. For women of reproductive years living with type 2 diabetes, the relative merits of using non-insulin pharmacotherapies vs diabetes technology (dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors, glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists and sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors) are unknown. Despite the urgent unmet need and potential benefits, studies of pharmacotherapy and technology use are extremely limited in pregnant women with type 2 diabetes.
Subject(s)
Blood Glucose Self-Monitoring , Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1 , Insulin Infusion Systems , Pregnancy in Diabetics , Humans , Pregnancy , Female , Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1/drug therapy , Blood Glucose Self-Monitoring/methods , Pregnancy in Diabetics/drug therapy , Pregnancy in Diabetics/blood , Pregnancy in Diabetics/therapy , Hypoglycemic Agents/therapeutic use , Blood Glucose/metabolism , Blood Glucose/drug effects , Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/drug therapy , Insulin/therapeutic useABSTRACT
AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: As a result of early loss of the glucagon response, adrenaline is the primary counter-regulatory hormone in type 1 diabetes. Diminished adrenaline responses to hypoglycaemia due to counter-regulatory failure are common in type 1 diabetes, and are probably induced by exposure to recurrent hypoglycaemia, however, the metabolic effects of adrenaline have received less research attention, and also there is conflicting evidence regarding adrenaline sensitivity in type 1 diabetes. Thus, we aimed to investigate the metabolic response to adrenaline and explore whether it is modified by prior exposure to hypoglycaemia. METHODS: Eighteen participants with type 1 diabetes and nine healthy participants underwent a three-step ascending adrenaline infusion during a hyperinsulinaemic-euglycaemic clamp. Continuous glucose monitoring data obtained during the week before the study day were used to assess the extent of hypoglycaemia exposure. RESULTS: While glucose responses during the clamp were similar between people with type 1 diabetes and healthy participants, plasma concentrations of NEFAs and glycerol only increased in the group with type 1 diabetes (p<0.001). Metabolomics revealed an increase in the most common NEFAs (p<0.01). Other metabolic responses were generally similar between participants with type 1 diabetes and healthy participants. Exposure to hypoglycaemia was negatively associated with the NEFA response; however, this was not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: In conclusion, individuals with type 1 diabetes respond with increased lipolysis to adrenaline compared with healthy participants by mobilising the abundant NEFAs in plasma, whereas other metabolic responses were similar. This may suggest that the metabolic sensitivity to adrenaline is altered in a pathway-specific manner in type 1 diabetes. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT05095259.
Subject(s)
Blood Glucose , Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1 , Epinephrine , Glucose Clamp Technique , Hypoglycemia , Adult , Female , Humans , Male , Young Adult , Blood Glucose/metabolism , Blood Glucose/drug effects , Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1/drug therapy , Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1/metabolism , Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1/blood , Epinephrine/blood , Epinephrine/administration & dosage , Fatty Acids, Nonesterified/blood , Glucagon/blood , Glycerol/blood , Glycerol/administration & dosage , Hypoglycemia/blood , Insulin/administration & dosage , Case-Control StudiesABSTRACT
Despite the availability of new classes of glucose-lowering drugs that improve glycaemic levels and minimise long-term complications, at least 20-25% of people with type 2 diabetes require insulin therapy. Moreover, a substantial proportion of these individuals do not achieve adequate metabolic control following insulin initiation. This is due to several factors: therapeutic inertia, fear of hypoglycaemia and/or weight gain, poor communication, complexity of insulin titration, and the number of injections needed, with the associated reduced adherence to insulin therapy. Once-weekly insulins provide a unique opportunity to simplify basal insulin therapy and to allow good glycaemic control with a low risk of hypoglycaemia. Several approaches to developing a stable and effective once-weekly insulin have been proposed, but, to date, insulin icodec and basal insulin Fc (insulin efsitora alfa) are the only two formulations for which clinical studies have been reported. The results of Phase I and II studies emphasise both efficacy (in term of glucose levels) and potential risks and adverse events. Phase III studies involving insulin icodec are reassuring regarding the risk of hypoglycaemia compared with daily basal insulin analogues. Despite some concerns raised in ongoing clinical trials, the available data suggest that weekly insulins may also be an option for individuals with type 1 diabetes, especially when adherence is suboptimal. For the first time there is an opportunity to make an important breakthrough in basal insulin therapy, particularly in people with type 2 diabetes, and to improve not only the quality of life of people with diabetes, but also the practice of diabetologists.
Subject(s)
Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 , Hypoglycemic Agents , Insulin , Humans , Hypoglycemic Agents/therapeutic use , Hypoglycemic Agents/administration & dosage , Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/drug therapy , Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/blood , Insulin/therapeutic use , Insulin/administration & dosage , Drug Administration Schedule , Blood Glucose/drug effects , Blood Glucose/metabolism , Hypoglycemia/prevention & control , Hypoglycemia/chemically induced , Insulin, Long-Acting/therapeutic use , Insulin, Long-Acting/administration & dosageABSTRACT
AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: We conducted a systematic review and network meta-analysis to compare the efficacy and safety of s.c. administered tirzepatide vs s.c. administered semaglutide for adults of both sexes with type 2 diabetes mellitus. METHODS: We searched PubMed and Cochrane up to 11 November 2023 for RCTs with an intervention duration of at least 12 weeks assessing s.c. tirzepatide at maintenance doses of 5 mg, 10 mg or 15 mg once weekly, or s.c. semaglutide at maintenance doses of 0.5 mg, 1.0 mg or 2.0 mg once weekly, in adults with type 2 diabetes, regardless of background glucose-lowering treatment. Eligible trials compared any of the specified doses of tirzepatide and semaglutide against each other, placebo or other glucose-lowering drugs. Primary outcomes were changes in HbA1c and body weight from baseline. Secondary outcomes were achievement of HbA1c target of ≤48 mmol/mol (≤6.5%) or <53 mmol/mol (<7.0%), body weight loss of at least 10%, and safety outcomes including gastrointestinal adverse events and severe hypoglycaemia. We used version 2 of the Cochrane risk-of-bias tool (ROB 2) to assess the risk of bias, conducted frequentist random-effects network meta-analyses and evaluated confidence in effect estimates utilising the Confidence In Network Meta-Analysis (CINeMA) framework. RESULTS: A total of 28 trials with 23,622 participants (44.2% female) were included. Compared with placebo, tirzepatide 15 mg was the most efficacious treatment in reducing HbA1c (mean difference -21.61 mmol/mol [-1.96%]) followed by tirzepatide 10 mg (-20.19 mmol/mol [-1.84%]), semaglutide 2.0 mg (-17.74 mmol/mol [-1.59%]), tirzepatide 5 mg (-17.60 mmol/mol [-1.60%]), semaglutide 1.0 mg (-15.25 mmol/mol [-1.39%]) and semaglutide 0.5 mg (-12.00 mmol/mol [-1.09%]). In between-drug comparisons, all tirzepatide doses were comparable with semaglutide 2.0 mg and superior to semaglutide 1.0 mg and 0.5 mg. Compared with placebo, tirzepatide was more efficacious than semaglutide for reducing body weight, with reductions ranging from 9.57 kg (tirzepatide 15 mg) to 5.27 kg (tirzepatide 5 mg). Semaglutide had a less pronounced effect, with reductions ranging from 4.97 kg (semaglutide 2.0 mg) to 2.52 kg (semaglutide 0.5 mg). In between-drug comparisons, tirzepatide 15 mg, 10 mg and 5 mg demonstrated greater efficacy than semaglutide 2.0 mg, 1.0 mg and 0.5 mg, respectively. Both drugs increased incidence of gastrointestinal adverse events compared with placebo, while neither tirzepatide nor semaglutide increased the risk of serious adverse events or severe hypoglycaemia. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Our data show that s.c. tirzepatide had a more pronounced effect on HbA1c and weight reduction compared with s.c. semaglutide in people with type 2 diabetes. Both drugs, particularly higher doses of tirzepatide, increased gastrointestinal adverse events. REGISTRATION: PROSPERO registration no. CRD42022382594.
Subject(s)
Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 , Glucagon-Like Peptides , Hypoglycemic Agents , Network Meta-Analysis , Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic , Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/drug therapy , Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/blood , Humans , Hypoglycemic Agents/therapeutic use , Hypoglycemic Agents/administration & dosage , Glucagon-Like Peptides/therapeutic use , Glucagon-Like Peptides/administration & dosage , Glucagon-Like Peptides/adverse effects , Glycated Hemoglobin/metabolism , Adult , Blood Glucose/drug effects , Female , Male , Injections, Subcutaneous , Glucagon-Like Peptide-2 Receptor , Gastric Inhibitory PolypeptideABSTRACT
AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: This study aimed to describe the relationship between breastfeeding episodes and maternal glucose levels, and to assess whether this differs with closed-loop vs open-loop (sensor-augmented pump) insulin therapy. METHODS: Infant-feeding diaries were collected at 6 weeks, 12 weeks and 24 weeks postpartum in a trial of postpartum closed-loop use in 18 women with type 1 diabetes. Continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) data were used to identify maternal glucose patterns within the 3 h of breastfeeding episodes. Generalised mixed models adjusted for breastfeeding episodes in the same woman, repeat breastfeeding episodes, carbohydrate intake, infant age at time of feeding and early pregnancy HbA1c. This was a secondary analysis of data collected during a randomised trial (ClinicalTrials.gov registration no. NCT04420728). RESULTS: CGM glucose remained above 3.9 mmol/l in the 3 h post-breastfeeding for 93% (397/427) of breastfeeding episodes. There was an overall decrease in glucose at nighttime within 3 h of breastfeeding (1.1 mmol l-1 h-1 decrease on average; p=0.009). A decrease in nighttime glucose was observed with open-loop therapy (1.2 ± 0.5 mmol/l) but was blunted with closed-loop therapy (0.4 ± 0.3 mmol/l; p<0.01, open-loop vs closed-loop). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: There is a small decrease in glucose after nighttime breastfeeding that usually does not result in maternal hypoglycaemia; this appears to be blunted with the use of closed-loop therapy.
Subject(s)
Blood Glucose , Breast Feeding , Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1 , Insulin Infusion Systems , Insulin , Postpartum Period , Humans , Female , Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1/drug therapy , Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1/blood , Blood Glucose/metabolism , Blood Glucose/drug effects , Blood Glucose/analysis , Adult , Insulin/administration & dosage , Insulin/therapeutic use , Pregnancy , Hypoglycemic Agents/administration & dosage , Hypoglycemic Agents/therapeutic use , Blood Glucose Self-Monitoring , Glycemic Control/methods , Glycated Hemoglobin/metabolism , Glycated Hemoglobin/analysis , Infant, Newborn , InfantABSTRACT
AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Appropriate management of blood glucose levels and the prevention of complications are important in the treatment of diabetes. We have previously reported on a compound named HPH-15 that is not only antifibrotic but also AMP-activated protein kinase (AMPK)-activating. In this study, we evaluated whether HPH-15 is useful as a therapeutic medication for diabetes. METHODS: We examined the effects of HPH-15 on AMPK activation, glucose uptake, fat accumulation and lactic acid production in L6-GLUT4, HepG2 and 3T3-L1 cells, as a model of muscle, liver and fat tissue, respectively. Additionally, we investigated the glucose-lowering, fat-accumulation-suppressing, antifibrotic and AMPK-activating effect of HPH-15 in mice fed a high-fat diet (HFD). RESULTS: HPH-15 at a concentration of 10 µmol/l increased AMPK activation, glucose uptake and membrane translocation of GLUT4 in each cell model to the same extent as metformin at 2 mmol/l. The production of lactic acid (which causes lactic acidosis) in HPH-15-treated cells was equal to or less than that observed in metformin-treated cells. In HFD-fed mice, HPH-15 lowered blood glucose from 11.1±0.3 mmol/l to 8.2±0.4 mmol/l (10 mg/kg) and 7.9±0.4 mmol/l (100 mg/kg) and improved insulin resistance. The HPH-15 (10 mg/kg) group showed the same level of AMPK activation as the metformin (300 mg/kg) group in all organs. The HPH-15-treated HFD-fed mice also showed suppression of fat accumulation and fibrosis in the liver and fat tissue; these effects were more significant than those obtained with metformin. Mice treated with high doses of HPH-15 also exhibited a 44% reduction in subcutaneous fat. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: HPH-15 activated AMPK at lower concentrations than metformin in vitro and in vivo and improved blood glucose levels and insulin resistance in vivo. In addition, HPH-15 was more effective than metformin at ameliorating fatty liver and adipocyte hypertrophy in HFD-fed mice. HPH-15 could be effective in preventing fatty liver, a common complication in diabetic individuals. Additionally, in contrast to metformin, high doses of HPH-15 reduced subcutaneous fat in HFD-fed mice. Presumably, HPH-15 has a stronger inhibitory effect on fat accumulation and fibrosis than metformin, accounting for the reduction of subcutaneous fat. Therefore, HPH-15 is potentially a glucose-lowering medication that can lower blood glucose, inhibit fat accumulation and ameliorate liver fibrosis.
Subject(s)
AMP-Activated Protein Kinases , Diet, High-Fat , Hyperglycemia , Animals , Mice , Diet, High-Fat/adverse effects , Humans , Hyperglycemia/drug therapy , Hyperglycemia/metabolism , Male , AMP-Activated Protein Kinases/metabolism , Hep G2 Cells , 3T3-L1 Cells , Mice, Inbred C57BL , Glucose Transporter Type 4/metabolism , Hypoglycemic Agents/pharmacology , Hypoglycemic Agents/therapeutic use , Blood Glucose/metabolism , Blood Glucose/drug effects , Metformin/therapeutic use , Metformin/pharmacology , Antifibrotic Agents/pharmacology , Antifibrotic Agents/therapeutic use , Adipose Tissue/metabolism , Adipose Tissue/drug effects , Insulin Resistance/physiology , Disease Models, AnimalABSTRACT
AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The aim of this study was to compare the effectiveness of stand-alone intermittently scanned continuous glucose monitoring (isCGM) with or without a structured education programme and blood glucose monitoring (BGM) in adults with type 2 diabetes on multiple daily insulin injections (MDI). METHODS: In this 24 week randomised open-label multicentre trial, adults with type 2 diabetes on intensive insulin therapy with HbA1c levels of 58-108 mmol/mol (7.5-12.0%) were randomly assigned in a 1:1:1 ratio to isCGM with a structured education programme on adjusting insulin dose and timing according to graphical patterns in CGM (intervention group), isCGM with conventional education (control group 1) or BGM with conventional education (control group 2). Block randomisation was conducted by an independent statistician. Due to the nature of the intervention, blinding of participants and investigators was not possible. The primary outcome was change in HbA1c from baseline at 24 weeks, assessed using ANCOVA with the baseline value as a covariate. RESULTS: A total of 159 individuals were randomised (n=53 for each group); 148 were included in the full analysis set, with 52 in the intervention group, 49 in control group 1 and 47 in control group 2. The mean (± SD) HbA1c level at baseline was 68.19±10.94 mmol/mol (8.39±1.00%). The least squares mean change (± SEM) from baseline HbA1c at 24 weeks was -10.96±1.35 mmol/mol (-1.00±0.12%) in the intervention group, -6.87±1.39 mmol/mol (-0.63±0.13%) in control group 1 (p=0.0367 vs intervention group) and -6.32±1.42 mmol/mol (-0.58±0.13%) in control group 2 (p=0.0193 vs intervention group). Adverse events occurred in 28.85% (15/52) of individuals in the intervention group, 26.42% (14/53) in control group 1 and 48.08% (25/52) in control group 2. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Stand-alone isCGM offers a greater reduction in HbA1c in adults with type 2 diabetes on MDI when education on the interpretation of graphical patterns in CGM is provided. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04926623. FUNDING: This study was supported by Daewoong Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd.
Subject(s)
Blood Glucose Self-Monitoring , Blood Glucose , Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 , Glycated Hemoglobin , Hypoglycemic Agents , Insulin , Patient Education as Topic , Humans , Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/drug therapy , Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/blood , Male , Female , Middle Aged , Blood Glucose Self-Monitoring/methods , Insulin/administration & dosage , Insulin/therapeutic use , Blood Glucose/metabolism , Blood Glucose/drug effects , Glycated Hemoglobin/metabolism , Glycated Hemoglobin/analysis , Patient Education as Topic/methods , Hypoglycemic Agents/administration & dosage , Hypoglycemic Agents/therapeutic use , Aged , Adult , Continuous Glucose MonitoringABSTRACT
AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact on metabolic control of periodic use of a 5-day fasting-mimicking diet (FMD) programme as an adjunct to usual care in people with type 2 diabetes under regular primary care surveillance. METHODS: In this randomised, controlled, assessor-blinded trial, people with type 2 diabetes using metformin as the only glucose-lowering drug and/or diet for glycaemic control were randomised to receive 5-day cycles of an FMD monthly as an adjunct to regular care by their general practitioner or to receive regular care only. The primary outcomes were changes in glucose-lowering medication (as reflected by the medication effect score) and HbA1c levels after 12 months. Moreover, changes in use of glucose-lowering medication and/or HbA1c levels in individual participants were combined to yield a clinically relevant outcome measure ('glycaemic management'), which was categorised as improved, stable or deteriorated after 1 year of follow-up. Several secondary outcome measures were also examined, including changes in body weight. RESULTS: One hundred individuals with type 2 diabetes, age 18-75 years, BMI ≥27 kg/m2, were randomised to the FMD group (n=51) or the control group (n=49). Eight FMD participants and ten control participants were lost to follow-up. Intention-to-treat analyses, using linear mixed models, revealed adjusted estimated treatment effects for the medication effect score (-0.3; 95% CI -0.4, -0.2; p<0.001), HbA1c (-3.2 mmol/mol; 95% CI -6.2, -0.2 and -0.3%; 95% CI -0.6, -0.0; p=0.04) and body weight (-3.6 kg; 95% CI -5.2, -2.1; p<0.001) at 12 months. Glycaemic management improved in 53% of participants using FMD vs 8% of control participants, remained stable in 23% vs 33%, and deteriorated in 23% vs 59% (p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Integration of a monthly FMD programme in regular primary care for people with type 2 diabetes who use metformin as the only glucose-lowering drug and/or diet for glycaemic control reduces the need for glucose-lowering medication, improves HbA1c despite the reduction in medication use, and appears to be safe in routine clinical practice. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03811587 FUNDING: The project was co-funded by Health~Holland, Top Sector Life Sciences & Health, the Dutch Diabetes Foundation and L-Nutra.
Subject(s)
Blood Glucose , Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 , Fasting , Glycated Hemoglobin , Glycemic Control , Hypoglycemic Agents , Metformin , Primary Health Care , Humans , Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/drug therapy , Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/blood , Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/diet therapy , Middle Aged , Male , Female , Fasting/blood , Metformin/therapeutic use , Hypoglycemic Agents/therapeutic use , Aged , Glycated Hemoglobin/metabolism , Blood Glucose/metabolism , Blood Glucose/drug effects , Adult , Glycemic Control/methods , Treatment Outcome , Adolescent , Young AdultABSTRACT
AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Metformin lowers postprandial glycaemic excursions in individuals with type 2 diabetes by modulating gastrointestinal function, including the stimulation of glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1). The impact of varying the timing of metformin administration on postprandial glucose metabolism is poorly defined. We evaluated the effects of metformin, administered at different intervals before an intraduodenal glucose infusion, on the subsequent glycaemic, insulinaemic and GLP-1 responses in metformin-treated type 2 diabetes. METHODS: Sixteen participants with type 2 diabetes that was relatively well-controlled by metformin monotherapy were studied on four separate days in a crossover design. On each day, participants were randomised to receive a bolus infusion of metformin (1000 mg in 50 ml 0.9% saline) via a nasoduodenal catheter at t = -60, -30 or 0 min (and saline at the other timepoints) or saline at all timepoints (control), followed by an intraduodenal glucose infusion of 12.56 kJ/min (3 kcal/min) at t = 0-60 min. The treatments were blinded to both participants and investigators involved in the study procedures. Plasma glucose, insulin and total GLP-1 levels were measured every 30 min between t = -60 min and t = 120 min. RESULTS: There was a treatment-by-time interaction for metformin in reducing plasma glucose levels and increasing plasma GLP-1 and insulin levels (p<0.05 for each). The reduction in plasma glucose levels was greater when metformin was administered at t = -60 or -30 min vs t = 0 min (p<0.05 for each), and the increases in plasma GLP-1 levels were evident only when metformin was administered at t = -60 or -30 min (p<0.05 for each). Although metformin did not influence insulin sensitivity, it enhanced glucose-induced insulin secretion (p<0.05), and the increases in plasma insulin levels were comparable on the 3 days when metformin was given. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: In well-controlled metformin-treated type 2 diabetes, glucose-lowering by metformin is greater when it is given before, rather than with, enteral glucose, and this is associated with a greater GLP-1 response. These observations suggest that administration of metformin before meals may optimise its effect in improving postprandial glycaemic control. TRIAL REGISTRATION: www.anzctr.org.au ACTRN12621000878875 FUNDING: The study was not funded by a specific research grant.
Subject(s)
Blood Glucose , Cross-Over Studies , Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 , Glucagon-Like Peptide 1 , Glucose , Hypoglycemic Agents , Metformin , Humans , Metformin/therapeutic use , Metformin/administration & dosage , Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/drug therapy , Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/blood , Male , Glucagon-Like Peptide 1/blood , Blood Glucose/drug effects , Blood Glucose/metabolism , Female , Middle Aged , Double-Blind Method , Hypoglycemic Agents/administration & dosage , Hypoglycemic Agents/therapeutic use , Glucose/metabolism , Insulin/blood , Aged , Adult , Postprandial Period , Duodenum/metabolism , Duodenum/drug effectsABSTRACT
AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: This study compares the efficacy and safety of a tubeless, on-body automated insulin delivery (AID) system with that of a tubeless, on-body sensor-augmented pump (SAP). METHODS: This multicentre, parallel-group, RCT was conducted at 13 tertiary medical centres in South Korea. Adults aged 19-69 years with type 1 diabetes who had HbA1c levels of <85.8 mmol/mol (<10.0%) were eligible. The participants were assigned at a 1:1 ratio to receive a tubeless, on-body AID system (intervention group) or a tubeless, on-body SAP (control group) for 12 weeks. Stratified block randomisation was conducted by an independent statistician. Blinding was not possible due to the nature of the intervention. The primary outcome was the percentage of time in range (TIR), blood glucose between 3.9 and 10.0 mmol/l, as measured by continuous glucose monitoring. ANCOVAs were conducted with baseline values and study centres as covariates. RESULTS: A total of 104 participants underwent randomisation, with 53 in the intervention group and 51 in the control group. The mean (±SD) age of the participants was 40±11 years. The mean (±SD) TIR increased from 62.1±17.1% at baseline to 71.5±10.7% over the 12 week trial period in the intervention group and from 64.7±17.0% to 66.9±15.0% in the control group (difference between the adjusted means: 6.5% [95% CI 3.6%, 9.4%], p<0.001). Time below range, time above range, CV and mean glucose levels were also significantly better in the intervention group compared with the control group. HbA1c decreased from 50.9±9.9 mmol/mol (6.8±0.9%) at baseline to 45.9±7.4 mmol/mol (6.4±0.7%) after 12 weeks in the intervention group and from 48.7±9.1 mmol/mol (6.6±0.8%) to 45.7±7.5 mmol/mol (6.3±0.7%) in the control group (difference between the adjusted means: -0.7 mmol/mol [95% CI -2.0, 0.8 mmol/mol] (-0.1% [95% CI -0.2%, 0.1%]), p=0.366). No diabetic ketoacidosis or severe hypoglycaemia events occurred in either group. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: The use of a tubeless, on-body AID system was safe and associated with superior glycaemic profiles, including TIR, time below range, time above range and CV, than the use of a tubeless, on-body SAP. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinical Research Information Service (CRIS) KCT0008398 FUNDING: The study was funded by a grant from the Korea Medical Device Development Fund supported by the Ministry of Science and ICT; the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy; the Ministry of Health and Welfare; and the Ministry of Food and Drug Safety (grant number: RS-2020-KD000056).
Subject(s)
Blood Glucose , Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1 , Hypoglycemic Agents , Insulin Infusion Systems , Insulin , Humans , Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1/drug therapy , Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1/blood , Male , Middle Aged , Adult , Female , Insulin/administration & dosage , Insulin/therapeutic use , Blood Glucose/drug effects , Blood Glucose/metabolism , Blood Glucose/analysis , Hypoglycemic Agents/administration & dosage , Hypoglycemic Agents/therapeutic use , Aged , Glycated Hemoglobin/metabolism , Glycated Hemoglobin/analysis , Republic of Korea , Blood Glucose Self-Monitoring/methods , Young AdultABSTRACT
AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The objective of the Hypoglycaemia REdefining SOLutions for better liVES (Hypo-RESOLVE) project is to use a dataset of pooled clinical trials across pharmaceutical and device companies in people with type 1 or type 2 diabetes to examine factors associated with incident hypoglycaemia events and to quantify the prediction of these events. METHODS: Data from 90 trials with 46,254 participants were pooled. Analyses were done for type 1 and type 2 diabetes separately. Poisson mixed models, adjusted for age, sex, diabetes duration and trial identifier were fitted to assess the association of clinical variables with hypoglycaemia event counts. Tree-based gradient-boosting algorithms (XGBoost) were fitted using training data and their predictive performance in terms of area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) evaluated on test data. Baseline models including age, sex and diabetes duration were compared with models that further included a score of hypoglycaemia in the first 6 weeks from study entry, and full models that included further clinical variables. The relative predictive importance of each covariate was assessed using XGBoost's importance procedure. Prediction across the entire trial duration for each trial (mean of 34.8 weeks for type 1 diabetes and 25.3 weeks for type 2 diabetes) was assessed. RESULTS: For both type 1 and type 2 diabetes, variables associated with more frequent hypoglycaemia included female sex, white ethnicity, longer diabetes duration, treatment with human as opposed to analogue-only insulin, higher glucose variability, higher score for hypoglycaemia across the 6 week baseline period, lower BP, lower lipid levels and treatment with psychoactive drugs. Prediction of any hypoglycaemia event of any severity was greater than prediction of hypoglycaemia requiring assistance (level 3 hypoglycaemia), for which events were sparser. For prediction of level 1 or worse hypoglycaemia during the whole follow-up period, the AUC was 0.835 (95% CI 0.826, 0.844) in type 1 diabetes and 0.840 (95% CI 0.831, 0.848) in type 2 diabetes. For level 3 hypoglycaemia, the AUC was lower at 0.689 (95% CI 0.667, 0.712) for type 1 diabetes and 0.705 (95% CI 0.662, 0.748) for type 2 diabetes. Compared with the baseline models, almost all the improvement in prediction could be captured by the individual's hypoglycaemia history, glucose variability and blood glucose over a 6 week baseline period. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Although hypoglycaemia rates show large variation according to sociodemographic and clinical characteristics and treatment history, looking at a 6 week period of hypoglycaemia events and glucose measurements predicts future hypoglycaemia risk.