ABSTRACT
PURPOSE: This study aimed to develop and validate clinical prediction models using machine learning (ML) algorithms for reliable prediction of subsequent hip fractures in older individuals, who had previously sustained a first hip fracture, and facilitate early prevention and diagnosis, therefore effectively managing rapidly rising healthcare costs in China. METHODS: Data were obtained from Grade A Tertiary hospitals for older patients (age ≥ 60 years) diagnosed with hip fractures in southwest China between 1 January 2009 and 1 April 2020. The database was built by collecting clinical and administrative data from outpatients and inpatients nationwide. Data were randomly split into training (80%) and testing datasets (20%), followed by six ML-based prediction models using 19 variables for hip fracture patients within 2 years of the first fracture. RESULTS: A total of 40,237 patients with a median age of 66.0 years, who were admitted to acute-care hospitals for hip fractures, were randomly split into a training dataset (32,189 patients) and a testing dataset (8,048 patients). Our results indicated that three of our ML-based models delivered an excellent prediction of subsequent hip fracture outcomes (the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve: 0.92 (0.91-0.92), 0.92 (0·92-0·93), 0.92 (0·92-0·93)), outperforming previous prediction models based on claims and cohort data. CONCLUSIONS: Our prediction models identify Chinese older people at high risk of subsequent hip fractures with specific baseline clinical and demographic variables such as length of hospital stay. These models might guide future targeted preventative treatments.
Subject(s)
Hip Fractures , Aged , Humans , Algorithms , Health Care Costs , Hip Fractures/diagnosis , Hip Fractures/epidemiology , Hip Fractures/prevention & control , Machine Learning , Risk Factors , Middle AgedABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Continence problems are known to be associated with disability in older adults. Costs of disability and resulting need for more supported living arrangements are high after a hip fracture. The aim was to examine pre-fracture urinary incontinence (UI) and double incontinence (DI, concurrent UI and fecal incontinence) as predictors of changes in mobility and living arrangements in older female hip fracture patients in a 1-year follow-up. METHODS: Study population comprised 1,675 female patients aged ≥ 65 (mean age 82.7 ± 6.8) sustaining their first hip fracture between 2007-2019. Data on self-reported pre-fracture continence status was collected. The outcomes were declined vs. same or improved mobility level and need for more assisted vs same or less assisted living arrangements 1-year post-fracture. Separate cohorts of 1,226 and 1,055 women were generated for the mobility and living arrangements outcomes, respectively. Age- and multivariable-adjusted logistic regression models were used to determine the associations of UI, DI, and other baseline characteristics with the outcomes. RESULTS: Of the patients, 39% had declined mobility or more assisted living arrangements at 1-year follow-up. Adjusting for age, both pre-fracture UI and DI were associated with changes in mobility and living arrangements. In the multivariable analysis, UI (OR 1.88, 95% CI 1.41-2.51) and DI (1.99, 95% CI 1.21-3.27) were associated with decline in mobility level while only DI (OR 2.40, 95% CI 1.22-4.75) remained associated with the need for more assisted living arrangements. CONCLUSIONS: Both pre-fracture UI and DI in older women are risk factors for declining mobility level, but only DI for more supported living arrangements 1-year post-hip fracture. UI likely develops earlier in life and might not necessarily be strongly associated with the onset or increasing disability in later years. DI may indicate more marked vulnerability and burden to patients as well as to formal and informal caregivers.
Subject(s)
Fecal Incontinence , Hip Fractures , Urinary Incontinence , Humans , Female , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Fecal Incontinence/epidemiology , Prospective Studies , Urinary Incontinence/diagnosis , Urinary Incontinence/epidemiology , Hip Fractures/diagnosis , Hip Fractures/epidemiology , Residence Characteristics , Risk FactorsABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Geriatric hip fractures are associated with a high incidence of mortality. This study examines the predictive value of the systemic immune-inflammation index (SII) on one-year mortality in elderly hip fracture patients. METHODS: A single-center retrospective study was conducted between February 2017 and October 2020. Three hundred and eleven surgically treated consecutive hip fracture patients were included in the study. Admission, postoperative first day, and postoperative fifth-day SII values were calculated. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to calculate the cut-off values, and patients were divided into high and low groups according to these cut-off values. After univariate Cox regression analysis, significant factors were included in the multivariate Cox proportional hazards model to adjust the effect of covariates and explore independent predictive factors associated with mortality. Further subgroup analysis was performed to evaluate the accuracy of the results for different clinical and biological characteristics. RESULTS: The mean age was 80.7 ± 8.0 years, and women made up the majority (67.8%) of the patients. The one-year mortality rate was 28.0%. After univariate and multivariate analyses, high postoperative fifth-day SII remained an independent predictor of one-year mortality (adjusted HR 2.16, 95% CI 1.38-3.38, p = 0.001). Older age, male gender, Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) ≥ 2, and hypoalbuminemia were found to be other independent predictors. The optimal cut-off value of the postoperative fifth-day SII was calculated at 1751.9 units (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: The postoperative fifth-day SII is a simple and useful inflammatory biomarker for predicting one-year mortality in patients with hip fracture.
Subject(s)
Hip Fractures , Inflammation , Humans , Male , Female , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Retrospective Studies , Inflammation/diagnosis , Proportional Hazards Models , Biomarkers , Hip Fractures/diagnosis , Hip Fractures/surgery , PrognosisABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Hip fractures are a serious health concern among the elderly, particularly in patients with hypertension, where the incidence of acute heart failure preoperatively is high, significantly affecting surgical outcomes and prognosis. This study aims to assess the risk of preoperative acute heart failure in elderly patients with hypertension and hip fractures by constructing a predictive model using machine learning on potential risk factors. METHODS: A retrospective study design was employed, collecting preoperative data from January 2018 to December 2019 of elderly hypertensive patients with hip fractures at the Third Hospital of Hebei Medical University. Using SPSS 24.0 and R software, predictive models were established through LASSO regression and multivariable logistic regression analysis. The models' predictive performance was evaluated using metrics such as the concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC curve), and decision curve analysis (DCA), providing insights into the nomogram's predictive accuracy and clinical utility. RESULTS: Out of 1038 patients screened, factors such as gender, age, history of stroke, arrhythmias, anemia, and complications were identified as independent risk factors for preoperative acute heart failure in the study population. Notable predictors included Sex (OR 0.463, 95% CI 0.299-0.7184, P = 0.001), Age (OR 1.737, 95% CI 1.213-2.488, P = 0.003), Stroke (OR 1.627, 95% CI 1.137-2.327, P = 0.008), Arrhythmia (OR 2.727, 95% CI 1.490-4.990, P = 0.001), Complications (OR 2.733, 95% CI 1.850-4.036, P < 0.001), and Anemia (OR 3.258, 95% CI 2.180-4.867, P < 0.001). The prediction model of acute heart failure was Logit(P) = -2.091-0.770 × Sex + 0.552 × Age + 0.487 × Stroke + 1.003 × Arrhythmia + 1.005 × Complications + 1.181 × Anemia, and the prediction model nomogram was established. The model's AUC was 0.785 (95% CI, 0.754-0.815), Decision curve analysis (DCA) further validated the nomogram's excellent performance, identifying an optimal cutoff value probability range of 3% to 58% for predicting preoperative acute heart failure in elderly patients with hypertension and hip fractures. CONCLUSION: The predictive model developed in this study is highly accurate and serves as a powerful tool for the clinical assessment of the risk of preoperative acute heart failure in elderly hypertensive patients with hip fractures, aiding in the optimization of preoperative risk assessment and patient management.
Subject(s)
Anemia , Heart Failure , Hip Fractures , Hypertension , Stroke , Aged , Humans , Retrospective Studies , Hip Fractures/complications , Hip Fractures/diagnosis , Hip Fractures/epidemiology , Heart Failure/complications , Heart Failure/diagnosis , Heart Failure/epidemiology , Machine Learning , Arrhythmias, Cardiac , Risk FactorsABSTRACT
PURPOSE: to investigate physiotherapists' perspectives of effective community provision following hip fracture. METHODS: qualitative semi-structured interviews were conducted with 17 community physiotherapists across England. Thematic analysis drawing on the Theoretical Domains Framework identified barriers and facilitators to implementation of effective provision. Interviews were complemented by process mapping community provision in one London borough, to identify points of care where suggested interventions are in place and/or could be implemented. RESULTS: four themes were identified: ineffective coordination of care systems, ineffective patient stratification, insufficient staff recruitment and retention approaches and inhibitory fear avoidance behaviours. To enhance care coordination, participants suggested improving access to social services and occupational therapists, maximising multidisciplinary communication through online notation, extended physiotherapy roles, orthopaedic-specific roles and seven-day working. Participants advised the importance of stratifying patients on receipt of referrals, at assessment and into appropriately matched interventions. To mitigate insufficient staff recruitment and retention, participants proposed return-to-practice streams, apprenticeship schemes, university engagement, combined acute-community rotations and improving job description advertisements. To reduce effects of fear avoidance behaviour on rehabilitation, participants proposed the use of patient-specific goals, patient and carer education, staff education in psychological strategies or community psychologist access. Process mapping of one London borough identified points of care where suggested interventions to overcome barriers were in place and/or could be implemented. CONCLUSION: physiotherapists propose that effective provision of community physiotherapy following hip fracture could be improved by refining care coordination, utilising stratification techniques, employing enhanced recruitment and retainment strategies and addressing fear avoidance behaviours.
Subject(s)
Hip Fractures , Physical Therapists , Humans , Hip Fractures/diagnosis , Hip Fractures/therapy , England , London , Qualitative ResearchABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Hip fracture (HF) is a significant cause of mortality among older people. Almost half of the patients with HF have dementia, which increases the mortality risk further. Cognitive impairment is associated with depressive disorders (DDs) and both dementia and DDs are independent risk factors for poor outcome after HF. However, most studies that evaluate mortality risk after HF separate these conditions. AIMS: To investigate whether dementia with depressive disorders (DDwD) affects the mortality risk at 12, 24, and 36 months after HF among older people. METHODS: Patients with acute HF (n = 404) were included in this retrospective analysis of two randomized controlled trials performed in orthopedic and geriatric departments. Depressive symptoms were assessed using the Geriatric Depression Scale and cognitive function was assessed using the Mini-Mental State Examination. A consultant geriatrician made final depressive disorder and dementia diagnoses using the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders criteria, with support from assessments and medical records. The 12-, 24- and 36-month mortality after HF was analyzed using logistic regression models adjusted for covariates. RESULTS: In analyses adjusted for age, sex, comorbidity, pre-fracture walking ability, and fracture type, patients with DDwD had increased mortality risks at 12 [odds ratio (OR) 4.67, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.75-12.51], 24 (OR 3.61, 95% CI 1.71-7.60), and 36 (OR 4.53, 95% CI 2.24-9.14) months. Similar results were obtained for patients with dementia, but not depressive disorders, alone. CONCLUSION: DDwD is an important risk factor for increased mortality at 12, 24, and 36 months after HF among older people. Routinely assessments after HF for cognitive- and depressive disorders could identify patients at risk for increased mortality, and enable early interventions. TRIAL REGISTRATION: RCT2: International Standard Randomized Controlled Trial Number Register, trial registration number: ISRCTN15738119.
Subject(s)
Cognitive Dysfunction , Dementia , Hip Fractures , Aged , Humans , Cognitive Dysfunction/complications , Comorbidity , Dementia/epidemiology , Hip Fractures/diagnosis , Retrospective StudiesABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Hip fracture is a common and debilitating injury amongst older adults. Fear of falling (FoF) and related constructs (balance confidence and falls efficacy) may impede rehabilitation after hip fracture. An updated systematic review to synthesize existing literature on FoF after hip fracture is needed. This review focussed on four research questions: In the hip fracture population: (1) What is the prevalence of FoF?; (2) What FoF assessment tools are validated? (3) What is the relationship between FoF and physical function?; (4) What interventions are effective for reducing FoF? METHODS: A systematic search was undertaken in EBSCO Health, Scopus and PsychINFO in January 2021 (and updated December 2022) for articles on FoF after hip fracture. Data in relation to each research question was extracted and analysed. The quality of the studies was appraised using the 'Risk of Bias Tool for Prevalence Studies', 'COSMIN Risk of Bias checklist for Patient-reported outcome measures', modified version of the 'Appraisal Tool for Cross-sectional studies', and the 'Cochrane Risk of Bias 2' tools for each research question, respectively. RESULTS: 36 studies (37 articles) with 5099 participants were included (mean age 80.2 years and average 78% female). Prevalence rates for FoF after hip fracture ranged between 22.5% and 100%, and prevalence tended to decrease as time progressed post hip fracture. The 'Falls Efficacy Scale - International' (FES-I) and 'Fear of Falling Questionnaire - Revised' (FFQ-R) were found to be reliable, internally consistent, and valid tools in hip fracture patients. FoF after hip fracture was consistently associated with measures of physical function including balance, gait speed, composite physical performance measures and self-reported function. Ten of 14 intervention studies were considered high risk of bias. Exercise-based interventions with or without a psychological component were not effective in reducing FoF after hip fracture compared to a control condition. CONCLUSION: FoF is prevalent after hip fracture and is consistently associated with poorer physical function. Only two instruments (FES-I and FFQ-R) have been validated for measuring FoF in the hip fracture population. However, there remains a need for larger, higher quality randomised controlled trials targeting FoF after hip fracture in order to guide clinical practice. TRIAL REGISTRATION: PROSPERO registration: CRD42020221836.
Subject(s)
Fear , Hip Fractures , Humans , Female , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Male , Fear/psychology , Prevalence , Cross-Sectional Studies , Hip Fractures/diagnosis , Hip Fractures/epidemiology , Hip Fractures/therapyABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: To study the effect of hip fracture type on physical performance, functional ability and change in mobility four to six months after the injury. METHODS: A total of 1331 patients out of consecutive 2052 patients aged ≥ 65 years who underwent hip fracture surgery were included in the study. Patient information was collected on admission, during hospitalization, by phone interview and at the geriatric outpatient clinic 4 to 6 months after the fracture. Of the 1331 eligible patients, Grip strength, Timed Up and Go -test (TUG), Elderly Mobility Scale (EMS), mobility change compared to pre-fracture mobility level, Basic Activities of Daily Living (BADL) and Instrumental Activities of Daily Living (IADL) were used to determine physical performance and functional ability. Logistic regression was used for the analyses which was adjusted for gender, age, American Society of Anesthesiologists score, diagnosis of cognitive disorder, pre-fracture living arrangements, mobility and need of mobility aid. RESULTS: Patients with pertrochanteric hip fracture had an EMS lower than 14 (Odds Ratio (OR) 1.38, 95% confidence intervals (CI) 1.00-1.90), TUG time ≥ 20 s (OR 1.69, 95% CI 1.22-2.33) and they had declined in mobility (OR 1.58, 95% CI 1.20-2.09) compared to femoral neck fracture patients 4 to 6 months post-hip fracture in multivariable-adjusted logistic regression analyses. Grip strength and functional ability (IADL, BADL) 4 to 6 months after hip fracture did not differ between fracture types. There were no statistically significant differences in physical performance in patients with a subtrochanteric fracture compared to patients with a femoral neck fracture. CONCLUSIONS: Pertrochanteric hip fracture independently associated with poorer physical performance 4 to 6 months post hip fracture compared to other hip fracture types. Pertrochanteric hip fracture patients should be given special attention in terms of regaining their previous level of mobility.
Subject(s)
Femoral Neck Fractures , Hip Fractures , Aged , Humans , Activities of Daily Living , Prospective Studies , Hip Fractures/diagnosis , Hip Fractures/epidemiology , Hip Fractures/surgery , HospitalizationABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Hip fractures are common in elderly patients, and almost all the patients undergo surgery. This study aimed to develop a novel modified lymphocyte C-reactive protein (CRP) score (mLCS) to simply and conveniently predict 3-year mortality in elderly patients undergoing intertrochanteric fracture surgery. METHODS: A retrospective study was conducted on elderly patients who underwent intertrochanteric fracture surgery between January 2014 and December 2017. The mLCS was developed according to the value of CRP and lymphocyte counts. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to identify independent risk factors for 3-year mortality after surgery. The performances of the lymphocyte CRP score (LCS) and mLCS to predict 3-year mortality were then compared using C-statistics, decision curve analysis (DCA), net reclassification index (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI). RESULTS: A total of 291 patients were enrolled, of whom 52 (17.9%) died within 3 years after surgery. In the multivariate Cox regression analysis, mLCS (hazard ratio (HR), 5.415; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.743-16.822; P = 0.003) was significantly associated with postoperative 3-year mortality. The C-statistics of LCS and mLCS for predicting 3-year mortality were 0.644 and 0.686, respectively. The NRI (mLCS vs. LCS, 0.018) and IDI (mLCS vs. LCS, 0.017) indicated that the mLCS performed better than the LCS. DCA also showed that mLCS had a higher clinical net benefit. CONCLUSIONS: mLCS is a promising predictor that can simply and conveniently predict 3-year mortality in elderly patients undergoing intertrochanteric fracture surgery.
Subject(s)
C-Reactive Protein , Hip Fractures , Aged , Humans , Death , Hip Fractures/diagnosis , Hip Fractures/mortality , Hip Fractures/surgery , Lymphocytes , Retrospective StudiesABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Because of their poor physical state, elderly hip fracture patients commonly require prolonged hospitalization, resulting in a drop in bed circulation rate and an increased financial burden. There are currently few predictive models for delayed hospital discharge for hip fractures. This research aimed to develop the optimal model for delayed hospital discharge for hip fractures in order to support clinical decision-making. METHODS: This case-control research consisted of 1259 patients who were continuously hospitalized in the orthopedic unit of an acute hospital in Tianjin due to a fragility hip fracture between January and December 2021. Delayed discharge was defined as a hospital stay of more than 11 days. The prediction model was constructed through the use of a Cox proportional hazards regression model. Furthermore, the constructed prediction model was transformed into a nomogram. The model's performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration curves and decision curve analysis (DCA). the STROBE checklist was used as the reporting guideline. RESULTS: The risk prediction model developed contained the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), preoperative waiting time, anemia, hypoalbuminemia, and lower limbs arteriosclerosis. The AUC for the risk of delayed discharge was in the training set was 0.820 (95% CI,0.79 ~ 0.85) and 0.817 in the testing sets. The calibration revealed that the forecasted cumulative risk and observed probability of delayed discharge were quite similar. Using the risk prediction model, a higher net benefit was observed than when considered all patients were at high risk, demonstrating good clinical usefulness. CONCLUSION: Our prediction models could support policymakers in developing strategies for the optimal management of hip fracture patients, with a particular emphasis on individuals at high risk of prolonged LOS.
Subject(s)
Hip Fractures , Patient Discharge , Humans , Aged , Comorbidity , Hip Fractures/diagnosis , Hip Fractures/epidemiology , Hip Fractures/surgery , Length of Stay , Proportional Hazards Models , Retrospective Studies , Risk FactorsABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: It is known that standardized incidence rates of hip fracture vary among older people in Spain. So far, the results published on the validation of the FRAX® tool in Spain have suggested that the major osteoporotic fractures (MOFs) risk in our country is underestimated. These studies have practically been based on Spanish cohorts evaluated in Catalonia, a higher hip fracture rate area. The purpose of this study is to analyse the ability of the FRAX® in a Spanish mid-fracture rate population. METHODS: Study design: Retrospective cohort study. MEASURES: MOFs: hip, humerus, wrist, spine fractures. Risk of fracture assessed by calculating odds ratios (ORs). Predictive capacity of FRAX® according to the osteoporotic fractures observed between 2009 and 2018 (ObsFr) to predicted by FRAX® without densitometry in 2009 (PredFr) ratio. RESULTS: 285 participants (156 women, 54.7%) with a mean ± SD of 61.5 ± 14 years. Twenty-four people sustained 27 fractures (15 MOFs). Significant ORs were observed for an age ≥ 65 (2.92; 95% CI, 1.07-7.96), female sex (3.18; 95% CI, 1.24-8.16), rheumatoid arthritis (0.62; 95% CI, 2.03-55.55), proton pump (2.71; 95% CI, 1.20-6.09) and serotonin reuptake (2.51; 95% CI, 1.02-6.16) inhibitors. The ObsFr/PredFr ratio in women were 1.12 (95% CI, 0.95-1.29) for MOFs and 0.47 (95% CI, 0-0.94) for hip fractures. Men had a ratio of 0.57 (95% CI, 0.01-1.14) for MOF, no hip fractures were observed. The ratios for the overall group were 1.29 (95% CI, 1.12-1.48) for MOFs and 0.70 (95% CI, 0.22-1.17) for hip fractures. CONCLUSIONS: FRAX® accurately predicted MOFs in women population with a hip fracture incidence rate close to the national mean compared to previous studies conducted in higher incidence regions in Spain.
Subject(s)
Hip Fractures , Osteoporotic Fractures , Male , Humans , Female , Aged , Osteoporotic Fractures/epidemiology , Osteoporotic Fractures/etiology , Risk Factors , Risk Assessment/methods , Bone Density , Retrospective Studies , Hip Fractures/diagnosis , Hip Fractures/epidemiology , Hip Fractures/complicationsABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Previous epidemiological researchers have used various algorithms to identify a second hip fracture; however, there has been no validation of these algorithms to date. This study aimed to verify existing algorithms for identifying second hip fracture under the International Classification of Diseases diagnostic coding systems. Furthermore, we examined the validity of two newly proposed algorithms that integrated the concept of periprosthetic fractures and laterality of the ICD-10 coding system. METHODS: Claims data of patients hospitalized for hip fracture from National Taiwan University Hospitals between 2007 and 2020 were retrieved. Hip fracture was confirmed by 2 orthopaedic surgeons with medical records and imaging data as gold standards. The validity of 9 existing and 2 newly proposed algorithms for identifying second hip fracture was evaluated. RESULTS: The positive predictive value (PPV) range between 84% and 90% in existing algorithms for identifying second hip fractures. Noteworthy, the longer time interval for discrimination resulted in slightly increased PPV (from 87% to 90%), while decreased sensitivity noticeably (from 87% to 72%). When considering the information about periprosthetic fracture, the PPV increased to 91% without diminished sensitivity. The PPV of the newly proposed ICD-10-specific algorithm was 100%. CONCLUSION: Algorithms integrated clinical insights of periprosthetic fractures and laterality concept of ICD-10 coding system provided satisfactory validity and help precisely define second hip fracture in future database research.
Subject(s)
Hip Fractures , Periprosthetic Fractures , Humans , Taiwan/epidemiology , Hip Fractures/diagnosis , Hip Fractures/epidemiology , Medical Records , AlgorithmsABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Trauma centers are confronted with rising numbers of geriatric trauma patients at high risk for adverse outcomes. Geriatric screening is advocated but not standardized within trauma centers. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to describe the impact of Identification of Seniors at Risk (ISAR) screening on patient outcomes and geriatric evaluations. METHODS: This study used a pre-/postdesign to assess the impact of ISAR screening on patient outcomes and geriatric evaluations in trauma patients 60 years and older, comparing the periods before (2014-2016) and after (2017-2019) screening implementation. RESULTS: Charts for 1,142 patients were reviewed. Comparing pre- to post-ISAR groups, the post-ISAR group with geriatric evaluations were older (M = 82.06, SD = 9.51 vs. M = 83.64, SD = 8.69; p = .026) with higher Injury Severity Scores (M = 9.22, SD = 0.69 vs. M = 9.38, SD = 0.92; p = .001). There was no significant difference in length of stay, intensive care unit length of stay, readmission rate, hospice consults, or inhospital mortality. Inhospital mortality (n = 8/380, 2.11% vs. n = 4/434, 0.92%) and length of stay in hours (M = 136.49, SD = 67.09 vs. M = 132.53, SD = 69.06) down-trended in the postgroup with geriatric evaluation. CONCLUSION: Resources and care coordination efforts can be directed toward specific geriatric screening scores to achieve optimal outcomes. Varying results were found related to outcomes of geriatric evaluations prompting future research.
Subject(s)
Geriatric Assessment , Hip Fractures , Humans , Aged , Length of Stay , Risk Assessment/methods , Geriatric Assessment/methods , Risk Factors , Hip Fractures/diagnosis , Retrospective StudiesABSTRACT
The association of serum gamma-glutamyl-transferase (GGT) with hip fracture risk has not been examined in women and men ≥ 50 years. We show that elevated GGT was associated with increased hip fracture risk, particularly in men. GGT could be a candidate serum marker of long-term hip fracture risk in the elderly. INTRODUCTION: We herein examined a possible relation between serum levels of GGT and hip fracture risk in women and men aged ≥ 50 years, which has not been investigated before. METHODS: In this population-based prospective cohort study, approximately 41,000 women and nearly 33,000 men ≥ 50 years participating in a medical prevention program 1985-2005 in western Austria were followed up for the occurrence of osteoporotic hip fractures during 2003-2013. ICD-10 based discharge diagnoses for hip fracture included S72.0, S72.1, and S72.2 available from all regional hospitals. GGT-related hip fracture risk was ascertained at each participant´s first and last examination during the prevention program. In a subset of 5445 participants, alcohol consumption could be included as a covariate. RESULTS: In men, hip fracture risk rose significantly by 75% and 86% for every tenfold increase of GGT measured at the first and last examination, respectively, and in women, hip fracture risk rose by 22% from the last examination. Elevated GGT (≥ 36 U/l in women, ≥ 56 U/l in men) at the first examination was associated with increased hip fracture risk only in men (HR 1.51, 95% CI 1.25-1.82), and at the last examination in both women (HR 1.14, 95% CI 1.02-1.28) and men (HR 1.61, 95% CI 1.33-1.95). Alcohol consumption had no significant influence on GGT-mediated hip fracture risk in women and men. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings identified an association of elevated GGT and hip fracture in women and men ≥ 50 years and suggest GGT as a candidate serum marker of long-term hip fracture risk in an elderly population.
Subject(s)
Hip Fractures , Osteoporotic Fractures , gamma-Glutamyltransferase , Aged , Biomarkers , Cohort Studies , Female , Hip Fractures/diagnosis , Hip Fractures/epidemiology , Hip Fractures/etiology , Humans , Male , Osteoporotic Fractures/epidemiology , Osteoporotic Fractures/etiology , Prospective Studies , Risk Factors , gamma-Glutamyltransferase/genetics , gamma-Glutamyltransferase/metabolismABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: (Instrumental) activities of daily living ((I)ADL) questionnaires are often used as a measure of functioning for different purposes. Depending on the purpose, a measurement of functioning that includes subjective patient perspectives can be relevant. However, it is unclear to what extent (I)ADL instruments capture self-perceived functioning. OBJECTIVE: Explore what functioning means to older persons after a hip fracture and assess the extent to which (I)ADL instruments align with self-perceived functioning. DESIGN: Qualitative interview study with framework analysis. SETTING: Prospective cohort study on recovery after a hip fracture among older persons in a hospital in a large city in the west of the Netherlands. SUBJECTS: Eighteen home-dwelling older persons (≥70 years) who had a hip fracture 6-12 months ago. METHODS: Telephone interviews about functioning before and after the hip fracture were coded and analysed using the framework method. RESULTS: The activities mentioned by participants to be part of their self-perceived functioning could be split into activities necessary to maintain the desired level of independence, and more personal activities that were of value to participants. Both the 'independence activities' and the 'valued activities' mentioned went beyond the activities included in (I)ADL questionnaires. Due to various coping strategies, limitations in activities that are measured in the (I)ADL questionnaires did not necessarily lead to worse self-perceived functioning. CONCLUSION: Self-perceived functioning differs from functioning measured with (I)ADL questionnaires in the items included and the weighing of limitations in activities. Thus, (I)ADL instruments alone are not enough to measure functioning from the perspective of the older person.
Subject(s)
Activities of Daily Living , Hip Fractures , Humans , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Prospective Studies , Hip Fractures/diagnosis , Surveys and Questionnaires , NetherlandsABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE: Old or frail acutely hospitalised patients can benefit from geriatric rehabilitation but criteria concerning referral decisions are unclear. This review presents an overview of clinical factors associated with referral to geriatric rehabilitation that may further consensus between hospital and rehabilitation professionals on triage. DESIGN: Scoping review. METHODS: A review was conducted following Arksey and O'Malley's framework. The search included literature concerning a broad spectrum of acutely hospitalised patients and factors associated with their referral to geriatric rehabilitation. RESULTS: Selected abstracts were categorised into distinct geriatric rehabilitation care pathways such as stroke, hip fracture, amputation of lower limb, cardiac and oncologic rehabilitation. Abstracts on internal medical patients were further reviewed and 29 studies were included. A total of 13 studies focused on factors identifying rehabilitation needs and 16 on factors associated with outcome of geriatric rehabilitation. Triage factors were diverse and included frailty status, functional decline, cognitive symptoms and multimorbidity. Mood symptoms and living situation further specified post-acute care needs. In overview, triage factors could be characterised as demographic (n = 4), diagnosis-related (n = 8), mental (n = 6), functional (n = 10) or multi-domain (n = 12) and mapped in a transitional care pathway. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: Frailty and functional decline are characteristics frequently associated with referral to geriatric rehabilitation of acutely hospitalised internal medical patients. A comprehensive geriatric assessment or a simpler multi-domain set of tests reveals rehabilitation needs and approximates a functional prognosis. Professional consensus on factors and timing of triage in hospital is within reach.
Subject(s)
Frailty , Hip Fractures , Aged , Frailty/diagnosis , Geriatric Assessment , Hip Fractures/diagnosis , Humans , Referral and Consultation , TriageABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE: to develop a user-friendly prediction tool of 1-year mortality for patients with hip fracture, in order to guide clinicians and patients on appropriate targeted preventive measures. DESIGN: population-based cohort study from 2011 to 2017 using nationwide data from the Danish Hip Fracture Registry. SUBJECTS: a total of 28,791 patients age 65 and above undergoing surgery for a first-time hip fracture. METHODS: patient-related prognostic factors at the time of admission were assessed as potential predictors: Nursing home residency, comorbidity (Charlson Comorbidity Index [CCI] Score), frailty (Hospital Frailty Risk Score), basic mobility (Cumulated Ambulation Score), atrial fibrillation, fracture type, body mass index (BMI), age and sex. Association with 1-year mortality examined by determining the cumulative incidence, applying univariable logistic regression and assessing discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristics curve [AUROC]). The final model (logistic regression) was utilised on a development cohort (70% of patients). Discrimination and calibration were assessed on the validation cohort (remaining 30% of patients). RESULTS: all predictors showed an association with 1-year mortality, but discrimination was moderate. The final model included nursing home residency, CCI Score, Cumulated Ambulation Score, BMI and age. It had an acceptable discrimination (AUROC 0.74) and calibration, and predicted 1-year mortality risk spanning from 5 to 91% depending on the combination of predictors in the individual patient. CONCLUSIONS: using information obtainable at the time of admission, 1-year mortality among patients with hip fracture can be predicted. We present a user-friendly chart for daily clinical practice and provide new insight regarding the interplay between prognostic factors.
Subject(s)
Hip Fractures , Aged , Cohort Studies , Comorbidity , Hip Fractures/diagnosis , Hip Fractures/epidemiology , Hip Fractures/surgery , Humans , Retrospective Studies , Risk FactorsABSTRACT
INTRODUCTION: our objective was to describe trends in returning home after hospitalisation for hip fracture and identify predictive factors of this important patient-focussed outcome. METHODS: a cohort of hip fracture patients from England and Wales (2018-2019) resident in their own home pre-admission were analysed to identify patient and service factors associated with returning home after hospital discharge, and with living in their own home at 120 days. Geographical variation was also analysed. RESULTS: analysis of returning home at discharge included 87,797 patients; 57,104 (65%) were discharged home. Patient factors associated with lower likelihood of discharge home included cognitive impairment (odds ratio (OR) 0.60 [95% CI: 0.57, 0.62]), malnutrition (OR 0.81 [0.76, 0.86]), being at risk of malnutrition (OR 0.81 [0.78, 0.85]) and experiencing delay to surgery due to reversal of anti-coagulant medication (OR 0.84 [0.77, 0.92]). Corresponding service factors included surgery delay due to hospital logistical reasons (OR 0.91 [0.87, 0.95]) and early morning admission between 4:00 and 7:59 am (OR 0.83 [0.78, 0.89]). Nerve block prior to arrival at the operating theatre was associated with higher likelihood of discharge home (OR 1.07 [1.03, 1.11]). Most of these associations were stronger when analysing the outcome 'living in their own home at 120 days', in which two out of 11 geographic regions were found to have significantly more patients returning home. CONCLUSION: we identify numerous modifiable factors associated with short-term and medium-term return to own home after hip fracture, in addition to significant geographical variation. These findings should support improvements to care and inform future research.
Subject(s)
Hip Fractures , Malnutrition , Cohort Studies , Hip Fractures/diagnosis , Hip Fractures/epidemiology , Hip Fractures/therapy , Humans , Patient Discharge , Prospective Studies , United Kingdom/epidemiologyABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Daily functioning is known to decline after a hip fracture, but studies of self-reported functioning before the fracture suggest this decline begins before the fracture. OBJECTIVE: Determine whether change in functioning in the year before a hip fracture in very old (80+) differs from change in those without a hip fracture. DESIGN: Two-stage individual patient data meta-analysis including data from the Towards Understanding Longitudinal International older People Studies (TULIPS)-consortium. SETTING: Four population-based longitudinal cohorts from the Netherlands, New Zealand and the UK. SUBJECTS: Participants aged 80+ years. METHODS: Participants were followed for 5 years, during which (instrumental) activities of daily living [(I)ADL] scores and incident hip fractures were registered at regular intervals. Z-scores of the last (I)ADL score and the change in (I)ADL in the year before a hip fracture were compared to the scores of controls, adjusted for age and sex. RESULTS: Of the 2,357 participants at baseline, the 161 who sustained a hip fracture during follow-up had a worse (I)ADL score before the fracture (0.40 standard deviations, 95% CI 0.19 to 0.61, P = 0.0002) and a larger decline in (I)ADL in the year before fracture (-0.11 standard deviations, 95% CI -0.22 to 0.004, P = 0.06) compared to those who did not sustain a hip fracture. CONCLUSIONS: In the very old a decline in daily functioning already starts before a hip fracture. Therefore, a hip fracture is a sign of ongoing decline and what full recovery is should be seen in light of the pre-fracture decline.
Subject(s)
Activities of Daily Living , Hip Fractures , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Hip Fractures/diagnosis , Hip Fractures/epidemiology , Humans , Longitudinal Studies , Netherlands/epidemiology , New Zealand/epidemiologyABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: despite fall history being a well-known risk factor for falls and fractures, the association between very recent falls and imminent fracture risk is not clearly elucidated. OBJECTIVE: to study the very recent (<4 months) fall-related absolute risk of fractures in the following year. METHODS: two large prospective cohort studies of women (Study of Osteoporotic Fractures [SOF]) and men (Osteoporotic Fractures in Men Study [MrOS]) aged 65 years or older were included. Data on falls were collected every 4 months, and the primary outcomes were any non-spine and hip fractures in the next 12 months. RESULTS: a total of 9,704 women contributed 419,149, and 5,994 men contributed 223,885 four-monthly periods of observations during the 14.8-year SOF and 12.6-year MrOS follow-up. Falls within 4 months indicated a high risk of non-spine and hip fractures in the following year for both sexes; in women, a recent fall indicated an 8.1% absolute risk of a non-spine fracture within 1 year, a 2.5-fold higher risk than that in women without falls, a 2.5% absolute risk of hip fracture, and a 3.1-fold increased risk. Falls increased the risk of fractures regardless of whether a fracture occurred or not. Men had similar risk patterns, albeit with a lower absolute risk of fracture. CONCLUSIONS: in older people, a fall within 4 months indicates a high risk of fracture in the next year, regardless of fracture occurrence. A recent fall warrants urgent evaluation and consideration of treatments to reduce the imminent risk of fractures.