Emerging viral diseases from a vaccinology perspective: preparing for the next pandemic.

Emerging infectious diseases will continue to threaten public health and are sustained by global commerce, travel and disruption of ecological systems. Most pandemic threats are caused by viruses from either zoonotic sources or vector-borne sources. Developing better ways to anticipate and manage the ongoing microbial challenge will be critical for achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals and, conversely, each such goal will affect the ability to control infectious diseases. Here we discuss how technology can be applied effectively to better prepare for and respond to new viral diseases with a focus on new paradigms for vaccine development.

A synthesis of evidence for policy from behavioural science during COVID-19.

Scientific evidence regularly guides policy decisions1, with behavioural science increasingly part of this process2. In April 2020, an influential paper3 proposed 19 policy recommendations ('claims') detailing how evidence from behavioural science could contribute to efforts to reduce impacts and end the COVID-19 pandemic. Here we assess 747 pandemic-related research articles that empirically investigated those claims. We report the scale of evidence and whether evidence supports them to indicate applicability for policymaking. Two independent teams, involving 72 reviewers, found evidence for 18 of 19 claims, with both teams finding evidence supporting 16 (89%) of those 18 claims. The strongest evidence supported claims that anticipated culture, polarization and misinformation would be associated with policy effectiveness. Claims suggesting trusted leaders and positive social norms increased adherence to behavioural interventions also had strong empirical support, as did appealing to social consensus or bipartisan agreement. Targeted language in messaging yielded mixed effects and there were no effects for highlighting individual benefits or protecting others. No available evidence existed to assess any distinct differences in effects between using the terms 'physical distancing' and 'social distancing'. Analysis of 463 papers containing data showed generally large samples; 418 involved human participants with a mean of 16,848 (median of 1,699). That statistical power underscored improved suitability of behavioural science research for informing policy decisions. Furthermore, by implementing a standardized approach to evidence selection and synthesis, we amplify broader implications for advancing scientific evidence in policy formulation and prioritization.

Digital measurement of SARS-CoV-2 transmission risk from 7 million contacts.

How likely is it to become infected by SARS-CoV-2 after being exposed? Almost everyone wondered about this question during the COVID-19 pandemic. Contact-tracing apps1,2 recorded measurements of proximity3 and duration between nearby smartphones. Contacts-individuals exposed to confirmed cases-were notified according to public health policies such as the 2 m, 15 min guideline4,5, despite limited evidence supporting this threshold. Here we analysed 7 million contacts notified by the National Health Service COVID-19 app6,7 in England and Wales to infer how app measurements translated to actual transmissions. Empirical metrics and statistical modelling showed a strong relation between app-computed risk scores and actual transmission probability. Longer exposures at greater distances had risk similar to that of shorter exposures at closer distances. The probability of transmission confirmed by a reported positive test increased initially linearly with duration of exposure (1.1% per hour) and continued increasing over several days. Whereas most exposures were short (median 0.7 h, interquartile range 0.4-1.6), transmissions typically resulted from exposures lasting between 1 h and several days (median 6 h, interquartile range 1.4-28). Households accounted for about 6% of contacts but 40% of transmissions. With sufficient preparation, privacy-preserving yet precise analyses of risk that would inform public health measures, based on digital contact tracing, could be performed within weeks of the emergence of a new pathogen.

Historical narratives about the COVID-19 pandemic are motivationally biased.

How people recall the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic is likely to prove crucial in future societal debates on pandemic preparedness and appropriate political action. Beyond simple forgetting, previous research suggests that recall may be distorted by strong motivations and anchoring perceptions on the current situation1-6. Here, using 4 studies across 11 countries (total n = 10,776), we show that recall of perceived risk, trust in institutions and protective behaviours depended strongly on current evaluations. Although both vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals were affected by this bias, people who identified strongly with their vaccination status-whether vaccinated or unvaccinated-tended to exhibit greater and, notably, opposite distortions of recall. Biased recall was not reduced by providing information about common recall errors or small monetary incentives for accurate recall, but was partially reduced by high incentives. Thus, it seems that motivation and identity influence the direction in which the recall of the past is distorted. Biased recall was further related to the evaluation of past political action and future behavioural intent, including adhering to regulations during a future pandemic or punishing politicians and scientists. Together, the findings indicate that historical narratives about the COVID-19 pandemic are motivationally biased, sustain societal polarization and affect preparation for future pandemics. Consequently, future measures must look beyond immediate public-health implications to the longer-term consequences for societal cohesion and trust.

The effects of cash transfers on adult and child mortality in low- and middle-income countries.

Poverty is an important social determinant of health that is associated with increased risk of death1-5. Cash transfer programmes provide non-contributory monetary transfers to individuals or households, with or without behavioural conditions such as children's school attendance6,7. Over recent decades, cash transfer programmes have emerged as central components of poverty reduction strategies of many governments in low- and middle-income countries6,7. The effects of these programmes on adult and child mortality rates remains an important gap in the literature, however, with existing evidence limited to a few specific conditional cash transfer programmes, primarily in Latin America8-14. Here we evaluated the effects of large-scale, government-led cash transfer programmes on all-cause adult and child mortality using individual-level longitudinal mortality datasets from many low- and middle-income countries. We found that cash transfer programmes were associated with significant reductions in mortality among children under five years of age and women. Secondary heterogeneity analyses suggested similar effects for conditional and unconditional programmes, and larger effects for programmes that covered a larger share of the population and provided larger transfer amounts, and in countries with lower health expenditures, lower baseline life expectancy, and higher perceived regulatory quality. Our findings support the use of anti-poverty programmes such as cash transfers, which many countries have introduced or expanded during the COVID-19 pandemic, to improve population health.

A multinational Delphi consensus to end the COVID-19 public health threat.

Despite notable scientific and medical advances, broader political, socioeconomic and behavioural factors continue to undercut the response to the COVID-19 pandemic1,2. Here we convened, as part of this Delphi study, a diverse, multidisciplinary panel of 386 academic, health, non-governmental organization, government and other experts in COVID-19 response from 112 countries and territories to recommend specific actions to end this persistent global threat to public health. The panel developed a set of 41 consensus statements and 57 recommendations to governments, health systems, industry and other key stakeholders across six domains: communication; health systems; vaccination; prevention; treatment and care; and inequities. In the wake of nearly three years of fragmented global and national responses, it is instructive to note that three of the highest-ranked recommendations call for the adoption of whole-of-society and whole-of-government approaches1, while maintaining proven prevention measures using a vaccines-plus approach2 that employs a range of public health and financial support measures to complement vaccination. Other recommendations with at least 99% combined agreement advise governments and other stakeholders to improve communication, rebuild public trust and engage communities3 in the management of pandemic responses. The findings of the study, which have been further endorsed by 184 organizations globally, include points of unanimous agreement, as well as six recommendations with >5% disagreement, that provide health and social policy actions to address inadequacies in the pandemic response and help to bring this public health threat to an end.

Nonspecific effects of neonatal and infant vaccination: public-health, immunological and conceptual challenges.

Vaccines can have nonspecific effects through their modulation of responses to infections not specifically targeted by the vaccine. However, lack of knowledge about the underlying immunological mechanisms and molecular cause-and-effect relationships prevent use of this potentially powerful early-life intervention to its greatest benefit. The World Health Organization has identified investigations into the molecular basis of nonspecific vaccine effects as a research priority.

Taking connected mobile-health diagnostics of infectious diseases to the field.

Mobile health, or 'mHealth', is the application of mobile devices, their components and related technologies to healthcare. It is already improving patients' access to treatment and advice. Now, in combination with internet-connected diagnostic devices, it offers novel ways to diagnose, track and control infectious diseases and to improve the efficiency of the health system. Here we examine the promise of these technologies and discuss the challenges in realizing their potential to increase patients' access to testing, aid in their treatment and improve the capability of public health authorities to monitor outbreaks, implement response strategies and assess the impact of interventions across the world.

Engaging Communities in Emerging Infectious Disease Mitigation to Improve Public Health and Safety.

The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the need for potent community-based tools to improve preparedness. We developed a community health-safety climate (HSC) measure to assess readiness to adopt health behaviors during a pandemic. We conducted a mixed-methods study incorporating qualitative methods (e.g., focus groups) to generate items for the measure and quantitative data from a February 2021 national survey to test reliability, multilevel construct, and predictive and nomologic validities. The 20-item HSC measure is unidimensional (Cronbach α = 0.87). All communities had strong health-safety climates but with significant differences between communities (F = 10.65; p<0.001), and HSC levels predicted readiness to adopt health-safety behaviors. HSC strength moderated relationships between HSC level and behavioral indicators; higher climate homogeneity demonstrated stronger correlations. The HSC measure can predict community readiness to adopt health-safety behaviors in communities to inform interventions before diseases spread, providing a valuable tool for public health authorities and policymakers during a pandemic.

Viral dynamics of acute SARS-CoV-2 infection and applications to diagnostic and public health strategies.

SARS-CoV-2 infections are characterized by viral proliferation and clearance phases and can be followed by low-level persistent viral RNA shedding. The dynamics of viral RNA concentration, particularly in the early stages of infection, can inform clinical measures and interventions such as test-based screening. We used prospective longitudinal quantitative reverse transcription PCR testing to measure the viral RNA trajectories for 68 individuals during the resumption of the 2019-2020 National Basketball Association season. For 46 individuals with acute infections, we inferred the peak viral concentration and the duration of the viral proliferation and clearance phases. According to our mathematical model, we found that viral RNA concentrations peaked an average of 3.3 days (95% credible interval [CI] 2.5, 4.2) after first possible detectability at a cycle threshold value of 22.3 (95% CI 20.5, 23.9). The viral clearance phase lasted longer for symptomatic individuals (10.9 days [95% CI 7.9, 14.4]) than for asymptomatic individuals (7.8 days [95% CI 6.1, 9.7]). A second test within 2 days after an initial positive PCR test substantially improves certainty about a patient's infection stage. The effective sensitivity of a test intended to identify infectious individuals declines substantially with test turnaround time. These findings indicate that SARS-CoV-2 viral concentrations peak rapidly regardless of symptoms. Sequential tests can help reveal a patient's progress through infection stages. Frequent, rapid-turnaround testing is needed to effectively screen individuals before they become infectious.

Retention of Community Health Workers in the Public Health Workforce: Public Health Workforce Interests and Needs Survey, 2017 and 2021.

Objectives. To investigate the organizational factors contributing to the intent of community health workers (CHWs) to quit their jobs in local and state health departments in the United States. Methods. We used the 2017 (n = 844) and 2021 (n = 1014) Public Health Workforce Interests and Needs Survey data sets to predict CHWs' intent to leave with Stata 17 balanced repeated replication survey estimations. Results. CHWs dissatisfied with organizational support, pay, or job security had high probabilities of reporting an intent to leave (50%, P < .01; 39%, P < .01; and 42%, P < .01, respectively) relative to satisfied or neutral workers (24%, P < .01; 21%, P < .01; and 26%, P < .01, respectively). Conclusions. Improving organizational support, pay satisfaction, and job security satisfaction in public health agencies can significantly improve CHW retention, potentially lowering overall organizational costs, enhancing organizational morale, and promoting community health. Public Health Implications. Our findings shed light on actionable ways to improve CHW retention, including assessing training needs; prioritizing diversity, equity, and inclusion; and improving communication between management and workers. (Am J Public Health. 2024;114(1):44-47. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2023.307462).

Standard Occupational Classification Codes: Gaps in Federal Data on the Public Health Workforce.

Objectives. To determine whether US Department of Labor standard occupational classification (SOC) codes can be used for public health workforce research. Methods. We reviewed past attempts at SOC matching for public health occupations and then used the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health Industry and Occupation Computerized Coding System (NIOCCS) to match the actual job titles for 26 516 respondents to the 2021 Public Health Workforce Interests and Needs Survey (PH WINS) with SOC codes, grouped by respondents' choice of job category in PH WINS. We assessed the accuracy of the NIOCCS matches and excluded matches under a cutpoint using the Youden Index. We assessed the percentage of SOC matches with insufficient information and diversity of SOC matches per PH WINS category using the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index. Results. Several key public health occupations do not have a SOC code, including disease intervention specialist, public health nurse, policy analyst, program manager, grants or contracts specialist, and peer counselor. Conclusions. Without valid SOC matches and detailed data on local and state government health departments, the US Department of Labor's data cannot be used for public health workforce enumeration. (Am J Public Health. 2024;114(1):48-56. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2023.307463).

A Translational Case Study of a Multisite COVID-19 Public Health Intervention Across Sequenced Research Trials: Embedding Implementation in a Community Engagement Phased Framework.

Through a COVID-19 public health intervention implemented across sequenced research trials, we present a community engagement phased framework that embeds intervention implementation: (1) consultation and preparation, (2) collaboration and implementation, and (3) partnership and sustainment. Intervention effects included mitigation of psychological distress and a 0.28 increase in the Latinx population tested for SARS-CoV-2. We summarize community engagement activities and implementation strategies that took place across the trials to illustrate the value of the framework for public health practice and research. (Am J Public Health. 2024;114(S5):S396-S401. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2024.307669).

Features of databases that supported searching for rapid evidence synthesis during COVID-19: implications for future public health emergencies.

BACKGROUND: As evidence related to the COVID-19 pandemic surged, databases, platforms, and repositories evolved with features and functions to assist users in promptly finding the most relevant evidence. In response, research synthesis teams adopted novel searching strategies to sift through the vast amount of evidence to synthesize and disseminate the most up-to-date evidence. This paper explores the key database features that facilitated systematic searching for rapid evidence synthesis during the COVID-19 pandemic to inform knowledge management infrastructure during future global health emergencies. METHODS: This paper outlines the features and functions of previously existing and newly created evidence sources routinely searched as part of the NCCMT's Rapid Evidence Service methods, including databases, platforms, and repositories. Specific functions of each evidence source were assessed as they pertain to searching in the context of a public health emergency, including the topics of indexed citations, the level of evidence of indexed citations, and specific usability features of each evidence source. RESULTS: Thirteen evidence sources were assessed, of which four were newly created and nine were either pre-existing or adapted from previously existing resources. Evidence sources varied in topics indexed, level of evidence indexed, and specific searching functions. CONCLUSION: This paper offers insights into which features enabled systematic searching for the completion of rapid reviews to inform decision makers within 5-10 days. These findings provide guidance for knowledge management strategies and evidence infrastructures during future public health emergencies.