PD-1 directed immunotherapy alters Tfh and humoral immune responses to seasonal influenza vaccine.

Anti-programmed death-1 (anti-PD-1) immunotherapy reinvigorates CD8 T cell responses in patients with cancer but PD-1 is also expressed by other immune cells, including follicular helper CD4 T cells (Tfh) which are involved in germinal centre responses. Little is known, however, about the effects of anti-PD-1 immunotherapy on noncancer immune responses in humans. To investigate this question, we examined the impact of anti-PD-1 immunotherapy on the Tfh-B cell axis responding to unrelated viral antigens. Following influenza vaccination, a subset of adults receiving anti-PD-1 had more robust circulating Tfh responses than adults not receiving immunotherapy. PD-1 pathway blockade resulted in transcriptional signatures of increased cellular proliferation in circulating Tfh and responding B cells compared with controls. These latter observations suggest an underlying change in the Tfh-B cell and germinal centre axis in a subset of immunotherapy patients. Together, these results demonstrate dynamic effects of anti-PD-1 therapy on influenza vaccine responses and highlight analytical vaccination as an approach that may reveal underlying immune predisposition to adverse events.

Urban living in healthy Tanzanians is associated with an inflammatory status driven by dietary and metabolic changes.

Sub-Saharan Africa currently experiences an unprecedented wave of urbanization, which has important consequences for health and disease patterns. This study aimed to investigate and integrate the immune and metabolic consequences of rural or urban lifestyles and the role of nutritional changes associated with urban living. In a cohort of 323 healthy Tanzanians, urban as compared to rural living was associated with a pro-inflammatory immune phenotype, both at the transcript and protein levels. We identified different food-derived and endogenous circulating metabolites accounting for these differences. Serum from urban dwellers induced reprogramming of innate immune cells with higher tumor necrosis factor production upon microbial re-stimulation in an in vitro model of trained immunity. These data demonstrate important shifts toward an inflammatory phenotype associated with an urban lifestyle and provide new insights into the underlying dietary and metabolic factors, which may affect disease epidemiology in sub-Sahara African countries.

Host and Environmental Factors Influencing Individual Human Cytokine Responses.

Differences in susceptibility to immune-mediated diseases are determined by variability in immune responses. In three studies within the Human Functional Genomics Project, we assessed the effect of environmental and non-genetic host factors of the genetic make-up of the host and of the intestinal microbiome on the cytokine responses in humans. We analyzed the association of these factors with circulating mediators and with six cytokines after stimulation with 19 bacterial, fungal, viral, and non-microbial metabolic stimuli in 534 healthy subjects. In this first study, we show a strong impact of non-genetic host factors (e.g., age and gender) on cytokine production and circulating mediators. Additionally, annual seasonality is found to be an important environmental factor influencing cytokine production. Alpha-1-antitrypsin concentrations partially mediate the seasonality of cytokine responses, whereas the effect of vitamin D levels is limited. The complete dataset has been made publicly available as a comprehensive resource for future studies. PAPERCLIP.

Circadian Rhythms in Rho1 Activity Regulate Neuronal Plasticity and Network Hierarchy.

Neuronal plasticity helps animals learn from their environment. However, it is challenging to link specific changes in defined neurons to altered behavior. Here, we focus on circadian rhythms in the structure of the principal s-LNv clock neurons in Drosophila. By quantifying neuronal architecture, we observed that s-LNv structural plasticity changes the amount of axonal material in addition to cycles of fasciculation and defasciculation. We found that this is controlled by rhythmic Rho1 activity that retracts s-LNv axonal termini by increasing myosin phosphorylation and simultaneously changes the balance of pre-synaptic and dendritic markers. This plasticity is required to change clock network hierarchy and allow seasonal adaptation. Rhythms in Rho1 activity are controlled by clock-regulated transcription of Puratrophin-1-like (Pura), a Rho1 GEF. Since spinocerebellar ataxia is associated with mutations in human Puratrophin-1, our data support the idea that defective actin-related plasticity underlies this ataxia.

Melatonin Contributes to the Seasonality of Multiple Sclerosis Relapses.

Seasonal changes in disease activity have been observed in multiple sclerosis, an autoimmune disorder that affects the CNS. These epidemiological observations suggest that environmental factors influence the disease course. Here, we report that melatonin levels, whose production is modulated by seasonal variations in night length, negatively correlate with multiple sclerosis activity in humans. Treatment with melatonin ameliorates disease in an experimental model of multiple sclerosis and directly interferes with the differentiation of human and mouse T cells. Melatonin induces the expression of the repressor transcription factor Nfil3, blocking the differentiation of pathogenic Th17 cells and boosts the generation of protective Tr1 cells via Erk1/2 and the transactivation of the IL-10 promoter by ROR-α. These results suggest that melatonin is another example of how environmental-driven cues can impact T cell differentiation and have implications for autoimmune disorders such as multiple sclerosis.

Weather explains the decline and rise of insect biomass over 34 years.

Insects have a pivotal role in ecosystem function, thus the decline of more than 75% in insect biomass in protected areas over recent decades in Central Europe1 and elsewhere2,3 has alarmed the public, pushed decision-makers4 and stimulated research on insect population trends. However, the drivers of this decline are still not well understood. Here, we reanalysed 27 years of insect biomass data from Hallmann et al.1, using sample-specific information on weather conditions during sampling and weather anomalies during the insect life cycle. This model explained variation in temporal decline in insect biomass, including an observed increase in biomass in recent years, solely on the basis of these weather variables. Our finding that terrestrial insect biomass is largely driven by complex weather conditions challenges previous assumptions that climate change is more critical in the tropics5,6 or that negative consequences in the temperate zone might only occur in the future7. Despite the recent observed increase in biomass, new combinations of unfavourable multi-annual weather conditions might be expected to further threaten insect populations under continuing climate change. Our findings also highlight the need for more climate change research on physiological mechanisms affected by annual weather conditions and anomalies.

Streamflow seasonality in a snow-dwindling world.

Climate warming induces shifts from snow to rain in cold regions1, altering snowpack dynamics with consequent impacts on streamflow that raise challenges to many aspects of ecosystem services2-4. A straightforward conceptual model states that as the fraction of precipitation falling as snow (snowfall fraction) declines, less solid water is stored over the winter and both snowmelt and streamflow shift earlier in season. Yet the responses of streamflow patterns to shifts in snowfall fraction remain uncertain5-9. Here we show that as snowfall fraction declines, the timing of the centre of streamflow mass may be advanced or delayed. Our results, based on analysis of 1950-2020 streamflow measurements across 3,049 snow-affected catchments over the Northern Hemisphere, show that mean snowfall fraction modulates the seasonal response to reductions in snowfall fraction. Specifically, temporal changes in streamflow timing with declining snowfall fraction reveal a gradient from earlier streamflow in snow-rich catchments to delayed streamflow in less snowy catchments. Furthermore, interannual variability of streamflow timing and seasonal variation increase as snowfall fraction decreases across both space and time. Our findings revise the 'less snow equals earlier streamflow' heuristic and instead point towards a complex evolution of seasonal streamflow regimes in a snow-dwindling world.

Adaptive foraging behaviours in the Horn of Africa during Toba supereruption.

Although modern humans left Africa multiple times over 100,000 years ago, those broadly ancestral to non-Africans dispersed less than 100,000 years ago1. Most models hold that these events occurred through green corridors created during humid periods because arid intervals constrained population movements2. Here we report an archaeological site-Shinfa-Metema 1, in the lowlands of northwest Ethiopia, with Youngest Toba Tuff cryptotephra dated to around 74,000 years ago-that provides early and rare evidence of intensive riverine-based foraging aided by the likely adoption of the bow and arrow. The diet included a wide range of terrestrial and aquatic animals. Stable oxygen isotopes from fossil mammal teeth and ostrich eggshell show that the site was occupied during a period of high seasonal aridity. The unusual abundance of fish suggests that capture occurred in the ever smaller and shallower waterholes of a seasonal river during a long dry season, revealing flexible adaptations to challenging climatic conditions during the Middle Stone Age. Adaptive foraging along dry-season waterholes would have transformed seasonal rivers into 'blue highway' corridors, potentially facilitating an out-of-Africa dispersal and suggesting that the event was not restricted to times of humid climates. The behavioural flexibility required to survive seasonally arid conditions in general, and the apparent short-term effects of the Toba supereruption in particular were probably key to the most recent dispersal and subsequent worldwide expansion of modern humans.

2023 summer warmth unparalleled over the past 2,000 years.

Including an exceptionally warm Northern Hemisphere summer1,2, 2023 has been reported as the hottest year on record3-5. However, contextualizing recent anthropogenic warming against past natural variability is challenging because the sparse meteorological records from the nineteenth century tend to overestimate temperatures6. Here we combine observed and reconstructed June-August surface air temperatures to show that 2023 was the warmest Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical summer over the past 2,000 years exceeding the 95% confidence range of natural climate variability by more than 0.5 °C. Comparison of the 2023 June-August warming against the coldest reconstructed summer in CE 536 shows a maximum range of pre-Anthropocene-to-2023 temperatures of 3.93 °C. Although 2023 is consistent with a greenhouse-gases-induced warming trend7 that is amplified by an unfolding El Niño event8, this extreme emphasizes the urgency to implement international agreements for carbon emission reduction.

The demise of the giant ape Gigantopithecus blacki.

The largest ever primate and one of the largest of the southeast Asian megafauna, Gigantopithecus blacki1, persisted in China from about 2.0 million years until the late middle Pleistocene when it became extinct2-4. Its demise is enigmatic considering that it was one of the few Asian great apes to go extinct in the last 2.6 million years, whereas others, including orangutan, survived until the present5. The cause of the disappearance of G. blacki remains unresolved but could shed light on primate resilience and the fate of megafauna in this region6. Here we applied three multidisciplinary analyses-timing, past environments and behaviour-to 22 caves in southern China. We used 157 radiometric ages from six dating techniques to establish a timeline for the demise of G. blacki. We show that from 2.3 million years ago the environment was a mosaic of forests and grasses, providing ideal conditions for thriving G. blacki populations. However, just before and during the extinction window between 295,000 and 215,000 years ago there was enhanced environmental variability from increased seasonality, which caused changes in plant communities and an increase in open forest environments. Although its close relative Pongo weidenreichi managed to adapt its dietary preferences and behaviour to this variability, G. blacki showed signs of chronic stress and dwindling populations. Ultimately its struggle to adapt led to the extinction of the greatest primate to ever inhabit the Earth.

Environmental drivers of increased ecosystem respiration in a warming tundra.

Arctic and alpine tundra ecosystems are large reservoirs of organic carbon1,2. Climate warming may stimulate ecosystem respiration and release carbon into the atmosphere3,4. The magnitude and persistency of this stimulation and the environmental mechanisms that drive its variation remain uncertain5-7. This hampers the accuracy of global land carbon-climate feedback projections7,8. Here we synthesize 136 datasets from 56 open-top chamber in situ warming experiments located at 28 arctic and alpine tundra sites which have been running for less than 1 year up to 25 years. We show that a mean rise of 1.4 °C [confidence interval (CI) 0.9-2.0 °C] in air and 0.4 °C [CI 0.2-0.7 °C] in soil temperature results in an increase in growing season ecosystem respiration by 30% [CI 22-38%] (n = 136). Our findings indicate that the stimulation of ecosystem respiration was due to increases in both plant-related and microbial respiration (n = 9) and continued for at least 25 years (n = 136). The magnitude of the warming effects on respiration was driven by variation in warming-induced changes in local soil conditions, that is, changes in total nitrogen concentration and pH and by context-dependent spatial variation in these conditions, in particular total nitrogen concentration and the carbon:nitrogen ratio. Tundra sites with stronger nitrogen limitations and sites in which warming had stimulated plant and microbial nutrient turnover seemed particularly sensitive in their respiration response to warming. The results highlight the importance of local soil conditions and warming-induced changes therein for future climatic impacts on respiration.

Increased occurrences of consecutive La Niña events under global warming.

Most El Niño events occur sporadically and peak in a single winter1-3, whereas La Niña tends to develop after an El Niño and last for two years or longer4-7. Relative to single-year La Niña, consecutive La Niña features meridionally broader easterly winds and hence a slower heat recharge of the equatorial Pacific6,7, enabling the cold anomalies to persist, exerting prolonged impacts on global climate, ecosystems and agriculture8-13. Future changes to multi-year-long La Niña events remain unknown. Here, using climate models under future greenhouse-gas forcings14, we find an increased frequency of consecutive La Niña ranging from 19 ± 11% in a low-emission scenario to 33 ± 13% in a high-emission scenario, supported by an inter-model consensus stronger in higher-emission scenarios. Under greenhouse warming, a mean-state warming maximum in the subtropical northeastern Pacific enhances the regional thermodynamic response to perturbations, generating anomalous easterlies that are further northward than in the twentieth century in response to El Niño warm anomalies. The sensitivity of the northward-broadened anomaly pattern is further increased by a warming maximum in the equatorial eastern Pacific. The slower heat recharge associated with the northward-broadened easterly anomalies facilitates the cold anomalies of the first-year La Niña to persist into a second-year La Niña. Thus, climate extremes as seen during historical consecutive La Niña episodes probably occur more frequently in the twenty-first century.

Precipitation regime changes in High Mountain Asia driven by cleaner air.

High Mountain Asia (HMA) has experienced a spatial imbalance in water resources in recent decades, partly because of a dipolar pattern of precipitation changes known as South Drying-North Wetting1. These changes can be influenced by both human activities and internal climate variability2,3. Although climate projections indicate a future widespread wetting trend over HMA1,4, the timing and mechanism of the transition from a dipolar to a monopolar pattern remain unknown. Here we demonstrate that the observed dipolar precipitation change in HMA during summer is primarily driven by westerly- and monsoon-associated precipitation patterns. The weakening of the Asian westerly jet, caused by the uneven emission of anthropogenic aerosols, favoured a dipolar precipitation trend from 1951 to 2020. Moreover, the phase transition of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation induces an out-of-phase precipitation change between the core region of the South Asian monsoon and southeastern HMA. Under medium- or high-emission scenarios, corresponding to a global warming of 0.6-1.1 °C compared with the present, the dipolar pattern is projected to shift to a monopolar wetting trend in the 2040s. This shift in precipitation patterns is mainly attributed to the intensified jet stream resulting from reduced emissions of anthropogenic aerosols. These findings underscore the importance of considering the impact of aerosol emission reduction in future social planning by policymakers.

Less extreme and earlier outbursts of ice-dammed lakes since 1900.

Episodic failures of ice-dammed lakes have produced some of the largest floods in history, with disastrous consequences for communities in high mountains1-7. Yet, estimating changes in the activity of ice-dam failures through time remains controversial because of inconsistent regional flood databases. Here, by collating 1,569 ice-dam failures in six major mountain regions, we systematically assess trends in peak discharge, volume, annual timing and source elevation between 1900 and 2021. We show that extreme peak flows and volumes (10 per cent highest) have declined by about an order of magnitude over this period in five of the six regions, whereas median flood discharges have fallen less or have remained unchanged. Ice-dam floods worldwide today originate at higher elevations and happen about six weeks earlier in the year than in 1900. Individual ice-dammed lakes with repeated outbursts show similar negative trends in magnitude and earlier occurrence, although with only moderate correlation to glacier thinning8. We anticipate that ice dams will continue to fail in the near future, even as glaciers thin and recede. Yet widespread deglaciation, projected for nearly all regions by the end of the twenty-first century9, may bring most outburst activity to a halt.

Seasonal advance of intense tropical cyclones in a warming climate.

Intense tropical cyclones (TCs), which often peak in autumn1,2, have destructive impacts on life and property3-5, making it crucial to determine whether any changes in intense TCs are likely to occur. Here, we identify a significant seasonal advance of intense TCs since the 1980s in most tropical oceans, with earlier-shifting rates of 3.7 and 3.2 days per decade for the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, respectively. This seasonal advance of intense TCs is closely related to the seasonal advance of rapid intensification events, favoured by the observed earlier onset of favourable oceanic conditions. Using simulations from multiple global climate models, large ensembles and individual forcing experiments, the earlier onset of favourable oceanic conditions is detectable and primarily driven by greenhouse gas forcing. The seasonal advance of intense TCs will increase the likelihood of intersecting with other extreme rainfall events, which usually peak in summer6,7, thereby leading to disproportionate impacts.

Authigenic mineral phases as a driver of the upper-ocean iron cycle.

Iron is important in regulating the ocean carbon cycle1. Although several dissolved and particulate species participate in oceanic iron cycling, current understanding emphasizes the importance of complexation by organic ligands in stabilizing oceanic dissolved iron concentrations2-6. However, it is difficult to reconcile this view of ligands as a primary control on dissolved iron cycling with the observed size partitioning of dissolved iron species, inefficient dissolved iron regeneration at depth or the potential importance of authigenic iron phases in particulate iron observational datasets7-12. Here we present a new dissolved iron, ligand and particulate iron seasonal dataset from the Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study (BATS) region. We find that upper-ocean dissolved iron dynamics were decoupled from those of ligands, which necessitates a process by which dissolved iron escapes ligand stabilization to generate a reservoir of authigenic iron particles that settle to depth. When this 'colloidal shunt' mechanism was implemented in a global-scale biogeochemical model, it reproduced both seasonal iron-cycle dynamics observations and independent global datasets when previous models failed13-15. Overall, we argue that the turnover of authigenic particulate iron phases must be considered alongside biological activity and ligands in controlling ocean-dissolved iron distributions and the coupling between dissolved and particulate iron pools.

Diagnosing destabilization risk in global land carbon sinks.

Global net land carbon uptake or net biome production (NBP) has increased during recent decades1. Whether its temporal variability and autocorrelation have changed during this period, however, remains elusive, even though an increase in both could indicate an increased potential for a destabilized carbon sink2,3. Here, we investigate the trends and controls of net terrestrial carbon uptake and its temporal variability and autocorrelation from 1981 to 2018 using two atmospheric-inversion models, the amplitude of the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2 concentration derived from nine monitoring stations distributed across the Pacific Ocean and dynamic global vegetation models. We find that annual NBP and its interdecadal variability increased globally whereas temporal autocorrelation decreased. We observe a separation of regions characterized by increasingly variable NBP, associated with warm regions and increasingly variable temperatures, lower and weaker positive trends in NBP and regions where NBP became stronger and less variable. Plant species richness presented a concave-down parabolic spatial relationship with NBP and its variability at the global scale whereas nitrogen deposition generally increased NBP. Increasing temperature and its increasing variability appear as the most important drivers of declining and increasingly variable NBP. Our results show increasing variability of NBP regionally that can be mostly attributed to climate change and that may point to destabilization of the coupled carbon-climate system.

Child wasting and concurrent stunting in low- and middle-income countries.

Sustainable Development Goal 2.2-to end malnutrition by 2030-includes the elimination of child wasting, defined as a weight-for-length z-score that is more than two standard deviations below the median of the World Health Organization standards for child growth1. Prevailing methods to measure wasting rely on cross-sectional surveys that cannot measure onset, recovery and persistence-key features that inform preventive interventions and estimates of disease burden. Here we analyse 21 longitudinal cohorts and show that wasting is a highly dynamic process of onset and recovery, with incidence peaking between birth and 3 months. Many more children experience an episode of wasting at some point during their first 24 months than prevalent cases at a single point in time suggest. For example, at the age of 24 months, 5.6% of children were wasted, but by the same age (24 months), 29.2% of children had experienced at least one wasting episode and 10.0% had experienced two or more episodes. Children who were wasted before the age of 6 months had a faster recovery and shorter episodes than did children who were wasted at older ages; however, early wasting increased the risk of later growth faltering, including concurrent wasting and stunting (low length-for-age z-score), and thus increased the risk of mortality. In diverse populations with high seasonal rainfall, the population average weight-for-length z-score varied substantially (more than 0.5 z in some cohorts), with the lowest mean z-scores occurring during the rainiest months; this indicates that seasonally targeted interventions could be considered. Our results show the importance of establishing interventions to prevent wasting from birth to the age of 6 months, probably through improved maternal nutrition, to complement current programmes that focus on children aged 6-59 months.

Increased heat risk in wet climate induced by urban humid heat.

Cities are generally warmer than their adjacent rural land, a phenomenon known as the urban heat island (UHI). Often accompanying the UHI effect is another phenomenon called the urban dry island (UDI), whereby the humidity of urban land is lower than that of the surrounding rural land1-3. The UHI exacerbates heat stress on urban residents4,5, whereas the UDI may instead provide relief because the human body can cope with hot conditions better at lower humidity through perspiration6,7. The relative balance between the UHI and the UDI-as measured by changes in the wet-bulb temperature (Tw)-is a key yet largely unknown determinant of human heat stress in urban climates. Here we show that Tw is reduced in cities in dry and moderately wet climates, where the UDI more than offsets the UHI, but increased in wet climates (summer precipitation of more than 570 millimetres). Our results arise from analysis of urban and rural weather station data across the world and calculations with an urban climate model. In wet climates, the urban daytime Tw is 0.17 ± 0.14 degrees Celsius (mean ± 1 standard deviation) higher than rural Tw in the summer, primarily because of a weaker dynamic mixing in urban air. This Tw increment is small, but because of the high background Tw in wet climates, it is enough to cause two to six extra dangerous heat-stress days per summer for urban residents under current climate conditions. The risk of extreme humid heat is projected to increase in the future, and these urban effects may further amplify the risk.