Prediction of pre-eclampsia at St. Mary's hospital lacor, a low-resource setting in northern Uganda, a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Pre-eclampsia is the second leading cause of maternal death in Uganda. However, mothers report to the hospitals late due to health care challenges. Therefore, we developed and validated the prediction models for prenatal screening for pre-eclampsia. METHODS: This was a prospective cohort study at St. Mary's hospital lacor in Gulu city. We included 1,004 pregnant mothers screened at 16-24 weeks (using maternal history, physical examination, uterine artery Doppler indices, and blood tests), followed up, and delivered. We built models in RStudio. Because the incidence of pre-eclampsia was low (4.3%), we generated synthetic balanced data using the ROSE (Random Over and under Sampling Examples) package in RStudio by over-sampling pre-eclampsia and under-sampling non-preeclampsia. As a result, we got 383 (48.8%) and 399 (51.2%) for pre-eclampsia and non-preeclampsia, respectively. Finally, we evaluated the actual model performance against the ROSE-derived synthetic dataset using K-fold cross-validation in RStudio. RESULTS: Maternal history of pre-eclampsia (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 32.75, 95% confidence intervals (CI) 6.59-182.05, p = 0.000), serum alkaline phosphatase(ALP) < 98 IU/L (aOR = 7.14, 95% CI 1.76-24.45, p = 0.003), diastolic hypertension ≥ 90 mmHg (aOR = 4.90, 95% CI 1.15-18.01, p = 0.022), bilateral end diastolic notch (aOR = 4.54, 95% CI 1.65-12.20, p = 0.003) and body mass index of ≥ 26.56 kg/m2 (aOR = 3.86, 95% CI 1.25-14.15, p = 0.027) were independent risk factors for pre-eclampsia. Maternal age ≥ 35 years (aOR = 3.88, 95% CI 0.94-15.44, p = 0.056), nulliparity (aOR = 4.25, 95% CI 1.08-20.18, p = 0.051) and white blood cell count ≥ 11,000 (aOR = 8.43, 95% CI 0.92-70.62, p = 0.050) may be risk factors for pre-eclampsia, and lymphocyte count of 800 - 4000 cells/microliter (aOR = 0.29, 95% CI 0.08-1.22, p = 0.074) may be protective against pre-eclampsia. A combination of all the above variables predicted pre-eclampsia with 77.0% accuracy, 80.4% sensitivity, 73.6% specificity, and 84.9% area under the curve (AUC). CONCLUSION: The predictors of pre-eclampsia were maternal age ≥ 35 years, nulliparity, maternal history of pre-eclampsia, body mass index, diastolic pressure, white blood cell count, lymphocyte count, serum ALP and end-diastolic notch of the uterine arteries. This prediction model can predict pre-eclampsia in prenatal clinics with 77% accuracy.

Prediction of stillbirth low resource setting in Northern Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Women of Afro-Caribbean and Asian origin are more at risk of stillbirths. However, there are limited tools built for risk-prediction models for stillbirth within sub-Saharan Africa. Therefore, we examined the predictors for stillbirth in low resource setting in Northern Uganda. METHODS: Prospective cohort study at St. Mary's hospital Lacor in Northern Uganda. Using Yamane's 1967 formula for calculating sample size for cohort studies using finite population size, the required sample size was 379 mothers. We doubled the number (to > 758) to cater for loss to follow up, miscarriages, and clients opting out of the study during the follow-up period. Recruited 1,285 pregnant mothers at 16-24 weeks, excluded those with lethal congenital anomalies diagnosed on ultrasound. Their history, physical findings, blood tests and uterine artery Doppler indices were taken, and the mothers were encouraged to continue with routine prenatal care until the time for delivery. While in the delivery ward, they were followed up in labour until delivery by the research team. The primary outcome was stillbirth 24 + weeks with no signs of life. Built models in RStudio. Since the data was imbalanced with low stillbirth rate, used ROSE package to over-sample stillbirths and under-sample live-births to balance the data. We cross-validated the models with the ROSE-derived data using K (10)-fold cross-validation and obtained the area under curve (AUC) with accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. RESULTS: The incidence of stillbirth was 2.5%. Predictors of stillbirth were history of abortion (aOR = 3.07, 95% CI 1.11-8.05, p = 0.0243), bilateral end-diastolic notch (aOR = 3.51, 95% CI 1.13-9.92, p = 0.0209), personal history of preeclampsia (aOR = 5.18, 95% CI 0.60-30.66, p = 0.0916), and haemoglobin 9.5 - 12.1 g/dL (aOR = 0.33, 95% CI 0.11-0.93, p = 0.0375). The models' AUC was 75.0% with 68.1% accuracy, 69.1% sensitivity and 67.1% specificity. CONCLUSION: Risk factors for stillbirth include history of abortion and bilateral end-diastolic notch, while haemoglobin of 9.5-12.1 g/dL is protective.

Assessment of Ficam VC (Bendiocarb) Residual Activity on Different Wall Surfaces for Control of Anopheles gambiae s.s. (Diptera: Culicidae) in Northern Uganda.

Insecticide decay rate on different wall surfaces is of importance to indoor residual spray (IRS) programs used as a malaria control intervention. Past IRS operations showed increasing populations of endophilic malaria vectors resting on indoor surfaces from various sites in Uganda following use of Ficam VC (bendiocarb) insecticide; variability of insecticide life was believed to be primarily due to wall surface type. Bendiocarb longevity was tested in the northern Uganda districts of Amuru, Apac, and Pader to assess its residual efficacy on three commonly encountered wall surfaces. Wall types included mud and wattle, plain brick, and painted plaster. A susceptible mosquito strain (Anopheles gambiae Kisumu) was used in all trials. Nine houses in each of the three districts were set with three test cones and one control cone per house, divided evenly among the three wall surfaces. Bioassays were run monthly through 6 mo. Painted plastered surfaces produced 100% mortality (at 24 h) through 6 mo. Plain brick surfaces killed 100% of test mosquitoes through 4 mo, while mud and wattle wall surfaces produced a 98% mortality rate at 3 mo post spray. The KD60 (knockdown at 60 min) for painted plastered surfaces was 100% for 6 mo, plain brick surface KD60 was 80% at 6 mo, and the mud and wattle surface KD60 was >80% at 3 mo. There was a significant effect on Ficam VC longevity by wall type and evidence of a relationship between test period and wall type on the KD60.