Heterogeneity in the onwards transmission risk between local and imported cases affects practical estimates of the time-dependent reproduction number.

During infectious disease outbreaks, inference of summary statistics characterizing transmission is essential for planning interventions. An important metric is the time-dependent reproduction number (Rt), which represents the expected number of secondary cases generated by each infected individual over the course of their infectious period. The value of Rt varies during an outbreak due to factors such as varying population immunity and changes to interventions, including those that affect individuals' contact networks. While it is possible to estimate a single population-wide Rt, this may belie differences in transmission between subgroups within the population. Here, we explore the effects of this heterogeneity on Rt estimates. Specifically, we consider two groups of infected hosts: those infected outside the local population (imported cases), and those infected locally (local cases). We use a Bayesian approach to estimate Rt, made available for others to use via an online tool, that accounts for differences in the onwards transmission risk from individuals in these groups. Using COVID-19 data from different regions worldwide, we show that different assumptions about the relative transmission risk between imported and local cases affect Rt estimates significantly, with implications for interventions. This highlights the need to collect data during outbreaks describing heterogeneities in transmission between different infected hosts, and to account for these heterogeneities in methods used to estimate Rt. This article is part of the theme issue 'Technical challenges of modelling real-life epidemics and examples of overcoming these'.

Personal and social norms for food portion sizes in lean and obese adults.

BACKGROUND: Portion size is an important component of dietary advice for weight control, but little is known about what portion sizes people consider 'normal'. This study determined the effect of body mass index (BMI), gender, dietary restraint and liking of the food on personal and social portion size norms for a range of foods and the degree of certainty over the norms. METHODS: Thirty lean (BMI 20-25 kg m(-)(2)) and 30 obese (BMI 30-35 kg m(-)(2)) men and women (aged 18-60 years) viewed 17 different portion sizes of 12 foods on a computer screen on two occasions a week apart. Participants responded 'more' or 'less' to each photograph reflecting personal portion size preference or perceived portion sizes of others. Personal and social norms for portion sizes of each food were determined using the method of constant stimuli giving a sigmoidal curve of the probability of answering 'less' over a range of portion sizes. The slope of the sigmoid at the norm gave a measure of certainty about the norm. Regression models were used to examine the effect of BMI, gender, dietary restraint and liking of the food on personal norms, social norms, the relationship between norms, and the slopes. RESULTS: Personal norms were significantly larger in the obese (P=0.026), men (P<0.001), those with lower dietary restraint (P<0.001), and those with higher liking for the food (P<0.001). Social norms were larger for women (P=0.012). The slopes at the norms were 30% shallower in the obese and in men (P<0.001). CONCLUSION: Larger personal norms for portion size among the obese, men, those with lower dietary restraint and those with higher liking for a food imply greater consumption, which may undermine weight control. Shallower slopes for norms in the obese and in men may imply less clearly defined habitual portion sizes.

The challenge of a 2-year follow-up after intervention for weight loss in primary care.

BACKGROUND: Many weight loss programmes show short-term success, but long-term data in larger studies are scarce, especially in community settings. Attrition is common and complicates the interpretation of long-term outcomes. OBJECTIVE: To investigate 2-year outcomes and explore issues of attrition and missing data. SUBJECTS: A total of 772 overweight and obese adults recruited by primary care practices in Australia, Germany and the UK and randomised to a 12-month weight loss intervention delivered in a commercial programme (CP) or in standard care (SC). MEASUREMENT: Weight change from 0-24 and 12-24 months including measured weights only and measured and self-reported weights, using last observation carried forward (LOCF), baseline observation carried forward (BOCF), completers-only and missing-at-random (MAR) analyses. RESULTS: A total of 203 participants completed the 24-month visit. Using measured weights only, there was a trend for greater 24-month weight loss in CP than in SC, but the difference was only statistically significant in the LOCF and BOCF analyses: LOCF: -4.14 vs -1.99 kg, difference adjusted for centre -2.08 kg, P<0.001; BOCF: -1.33 vs -0.74 kg, adjusted difference -0.60 kg, P=0.032; completers: -4.76 vs -2.99 kg, adjusted difference -1.53 kg, P=0.113; missing at random: -3.00 vs -1.94 kg, adjusted difference -1.04 kg, P=0.150. Both groups gained weight from 12-24 months and weight regain was significantly (P<0.001) greater for CP than for SC in all analysis approaches. Inclusion of self-reported weights from a further 138 participants did not change the interpretation of the findings. CONCLUSION: Initial weight loss was poorly maintained during the no-intervention follow-up, but both groups did have lower weight over the 24 months. Attrition was high in both groups, and assumptions about missing data had considerable impact on the magnitude and statistical significance of treatment effects. It is vital that trials on weight loss interventions consider the plausibility of these differences in an analytical approach when interpreting research findings and comparing data between studies.

A within-trial cost-effectiveness analysis of primary care referral to a commercial provider for weight loss treatment, relative to standard care--an international randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Due to the high prevalence of overweight and obesity there is a need to identify cost-effective approaches for weight loss in primary care and community settings. OBJECTIVE: We evaluated the cost effectiveness of two weight loss programmes of 1-year duration, either standard care (SC) as defined by national guidelines, or a commercial provider (Weight Watchers) (CP). DESIGN: This analysis was based on a randomised controlled trial of 772 adults (87% female; age 47.4±12.9 years; body mass index 31.4±2.6 kg m(-2)) recruited by health professionals in primary care in Australia, United Kingdom and Germany. Both a health sector and societal perspective were adopted to calculate the cost per kilogram of weight loss and the ICER, expressed as the cost per quality adjusted life year (QALY). RESULTS: The cost per kilogram of weight loss was USD122, 90 and 180 for the CP in Australia, the United Kingdom and Germany, respectively. For SC the cost was USD138, 151 and 133, respectively. From a health-sector perspective, the ICER for the CP relative to SC was USD18 266, 12 100 and 40 933 for Australia, the United Kingdom and Germany, respectively. Corresponding societal ICER figures were USD31,663, 24,996 and 51,571. CONCLUSION: The CP was a cost-effective approach from a health funder and societal perspective. Despite participants in the CP group attending two to three times more meetings than the SC group, the CP was still cost effective even including these added patient travel costs. This study indicates that it is cost effective for general practitioners (GPs) to refer overweight and obese patients to a CP, which may be better value than expending public funds on GP visits to manage this problem.

Colonic microbiota is associated with inflammation and host epigenomic alterations in inflammatory bowel disease.

Studies of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) have been inconclusive in relating microbiota with distribution of inflammation. We report microbiota, host transcriptomics, epigenomics and genetics from matched inflamed and non-inflamed colonic mucosa [50 Crohn's disease (CD); 80 ulcerative colitis (UC); 31 controls]. Changes in community-wide and within-patient microbiota are linked with inflammation, but we find no evidence for a distinct microbial diagnostic signature, probably due to heterogeneous host-microbe interactions, and show only marginal microbiota associations with habitual diet. Epithelial DNA methylation improves disease classification and is associated with both inflammation and microbiota composition. Microbiota sub-groups are driven by dominant Enterbacteriaceae and Bacteroides species, representative strains of which are pro-inflammatory in vitro, are also associated with immune-related epigenetic markers. In conclusion, inflamed and non-inflamed colonic segments in both CD and UC differ in microbiota composition and epigenetic profiles.

Dose-dependent effects of alcohol on appetite and food intake.

To examine the potential dose-response effect of alcohol on appetite and food intake, 12 males attended the laboratory on three occasions. On each occasion, they were given a standard breakfast, then lunch 3 h later, and dinner, 4 h after that. Thirty minutes before lunch, Ss received 330 ml of no-alcohol lager (263 kJ: no-alcohol condition), the same amount of lager spiked with 1 unit (1 UA: 8 g ethyl alcohol, 498.2 kJ) or 4 units of alcohol (4 UA: 32 g ethyl alcohol, 1203.8 kJ). Visual analogue scale (VAS) ratings of appetite and mood were recorded before and after preloads and lunch, then hourly across the day. Intake at lunch (excluding energy from the preload) was significantly higher following 4 UA (5786+/-991 kJ) compared to 1 UA (4928+/-1245 kJ). Participants consumed more high-fat salty food items at lunch following 4 UA compared to the other preloads. Hunger was rated higher following 4 UA across the day in comparison to the other preloads, but fullness ratings failed to reflect any difference by condition. Energy intake at dinner was similar in all conditions and total energy intake across the day was significantly higher after 4 UA (14,615+/-1540 kJ) than after 1 UA (13,204+/-2156 kJ). In conclusion, above a certain threshold, alcohol appears to stimulate appetite in part, due to elevated levels of subjective hunger. When this occurs, energy intake is not reduced at subsequent meals. Thus, alcohol may contribute to positive energy balance via its additive effects to total energy intake and by short-term appetite stimulation.

Changes in physical activity during a weight loss intervention and follow-up: a randomized controlled trial.

Physical activity is an important component in weight loss treatment and weight maintenance. We evaluated the physical activity component of two weight loss programmes, either standard care (SC) as defined by national guidelines, or a commercial programme (CP; Weight Watchers) over the period of weight loss and follow-up. 772 adults (mean body mass index: 31.4 ± 2.6 kg m(-2)) were recruited by primary care practices in Australia, the United Kingdom, and Germany, and randomly assigned to 12 months SC, or the CP. They were then followed up at 24 months. Change in physical activity levels were assessed by the International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ)-short form, and pedometer recordings. Both groups reported increases in physical activity using the IPAQ from baseline to 12 months and 24 months (within groups P < 0.0001) and in pedometer steps from baseline to 12 months only (within groups P < 0.0001). Differences between groups with both methods of assessment were not significant. There was a significant difference in weight loss between the groups at 12 months favouring the CP group; however, this statistical difference was not maintained at 24 months. In conclusion, despite similar increases in reported activity, there were significant differences in weight loss and regain between groups. Therefore, greater weight loss seen with the CP is unlikely to be due to increases in physical activity. Trends in pedometer steps mirrored changes in weight over time more closely than the IPAQ; however, both assessment tools have limitations. Better activity assessment measures are needed to more accurately gauge changes in physical activity during weight loss interventions.

The effects of iPod and text-messaging use on driver distraction: a bio-behavioral analysis.

This study was designed to empirically examine the effects of iPod device and text-messaging activities on driver distraction. Sixty participants were asked to perform a driving simulation task while searching for songs using an iPod device or text messaging. Driving errors as measured by lane deviations were recorded and analyzed as a function of the distracters. Physiological measures (EEG) were also recorded during the driving phases in order to measure participant levels of cortical arousal. It was hypothesized that iPod use and text messaging would result in a profound effect on driving ability. The results showed a significant effect of iPod use and text-messaging on driving performance. Increased numbers of driving errors were recorded during the iPod and text-messaging phases than the pre- and post-allocation phases. Higher levels of Theta activity were also observed during the iPod and Text-messaging phase than the pre- and post-allocation phases. Implications for in-vehicle systems design, training, and safety are also discussed.

Disturbed oligodendrocyte development and recovery from hypomyelination in a c-myc transgenic mouse mutant.

The complexity of interactions underlying the elaboration of myelin has been extensively demonstrated. We provide evidence that signals promoting myelination are not confined to the normal developmental time window for myelination and persist well into adult life. The 2-50 mutant, described previously, carries a c-myc transgene regulated by a myelin basic protein promoter. This mutant is characterised by severe hypomyelination and abnormal oligodendrocytes in early life, followed by loss of the phenotype and normal longevity. We show that c-myc expression in early oligodendrocyte development results in a substantial reduction of cells of this lineage. However, apparent complete recovery, associated with loss of c-myc expression, axonal survival, and gradual myelin accumulation, is observed by 4 months of age. Thus, stimulation of myelination continues during adult life until normal myelin levels are established. We propose that this mutant may contribute to the characterisation of oligodendrocyte responses to myelinating signals.

Arbovirus infection in a Murray Valley community.

Serum antibodies to Ross River virus and Murray Valley encephalitis virus were measured during 1974-1975 in residents of Echuca, an urban Murray Valley community. A representative group of volunteers was obtained by random selection of households. The prevalence of antibodies to both viruses increased progressively with age. Prevalence was equal in both sexes for both viruses in all age groups, indicating that the risk of infection was mainly determined by geography rather than by personal activities. Antibody levels remained unchanged in the following year when there was no disease activity in the area. The stability of antibody levels permitted retrospective estimates of mean rates of infection. These were approximately 0.4% per annum for both viruses when age was used as the index for years of exposure. With allowance for other factors, the best estimate for both virus infections is probably closer to 1%. The morbidity rate for Ross River virus infection appeared to be low. It is concluded that infection with Ross River virus and with Murray Valley encephalitis-related viruses is endemic in the Murray Valley.