Immune-neuroendocrine patterning and response to stress. A latent profile analysis in the English longitudinal study of ageing.

Psychosocial stress exposure can disturb communication signals between the immune, nervous, and endocrine systems that are intended to maintain homeostasis. This dysregulation can provoke a negative feedback loop between each system that has high pathological risk. Here, we explore patterns of immune-neuroendocrine activity and the role of stress. Using data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA), we first identified the latent structure of immune-neuroendocrine activity (indexed by high sensitivity C-reactive protein [CRP], fibrinogen [Fb], hair cortisol [cortisol], and insulin growth-factor-1 [IGF-1]), within a population-based cohort using latent profile analysis (LPA). Then, we determined whether life stress was associated with membership of different immune-neuroendocrine profiles. We followed 4,934 male and female participants, with a median age of 65 years, over a four-year period (2008-2012). A three-class LPA solution offered the most parsimonious fit to the underlying immune-neuroendocrine structure in the data, with 36 %, 40 %, and 24 % of the population belonging to profiles 1 (low-risk), 2 (moderate-risk), and 3 (high-risk), respectively. After adjustment for genetic predisposition, sociodemographics, lifestyle, and health, higher exposure to stress was associated with a 61 % greater risk of belonging to the high-risk profile (RRR: 1.61; 95 %CI = 1.23-2.12, p = 0.001), but not the moderate-risk profile (RRR = 1.10, 95 %CI = 0.89-1.35, p = 0.401), as compared with the low-risk profile four years later. Our findings extend existing knowledge on psychoneuroimmunological processes, by revealing how inflammation and neuroendocrine activity cluster in a representative sample of older adults, and how stress exposure was associated with immune-neuroendocrine responses over time.

The interactive association of adverse childhood experiences and polygenic susceptibility with depressive symptoms and chronic inflammation in older adults: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) and genetic liability are important risk factors for depression and inflammation. However, little is known about the gene-environment (G × E) mechanisms underlying their aetiology. For the first time, we tested the independent and interactive associations of ACEs and polygenic scores of major depressive disorder (MDD-PGS) and C-reactive protein (CRP-PGS) with longitudinal trajectories of depression and chronic inflammation in older adults. METHODS: Data were drawn from the English longitudinal study of ageing (N~3400). Retrospective information on ACEs was collected in wave3 (2006/07). We calculated a cumulative risk score of ACEs and also assessed distinct dimensions separately. Depressive symptoms were ascertained on eight occasions, from wave1 (2002/03) to wave8 (2016/17). CRP was measured in wave2 (2004/05), wave4 (2008/09), and wave6 (2012/13). The associations of the risk factors with group-based depressive-symptom trajectories and repeated exposure to high CRP (i.e. ⩾3 mg/L) were tested using multinomial and ordinal logistic regression. RESULTS: All types of ACEs were independently associated with high depressive-symptom trajectories (OR 1.44, 95% CI 1.30-1.60) and inflammation (OR 1.08, 95% CI 1.07-1.09). The risk of high depressive-symptom trajectories (OR 1.47, 95% CI 1.28-1.70) and inflammation (OR 1.03, 95% CI 1.01-1.04) was also higher for participants with higher MDD-PGS. G×E analyses revealed that the associations between ACEs and depressive symptoms were larger among participants with higher MDD-PGS (OR 1.13, 95% CI 1.04-1.23). ACEs were also more strongly related to inflammation in participants with higher CRP-PGS (OR 1.02, 95% CI 1.01-1.03). CONCLUSIONS: ACEs and polygenic susceptibility were independently and interactively associated with elevated depressive symptoms and chronic inflammation, highlighting the clinical importance of assessing both ACEs and genetic risk factors to design more targeted interventions.

The long-term effects of a polygenetic predisposition to general cognition on healthy cognitive ageing: evidence from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing.

BACKGROUND: As an accelerated cognitive decline frequently heralds onset of severe neuropathological disorders, understanding the source of individual differences in withstanding the onslaught of cognitive ageing may highlight how best cognitive abilities may be retained into advanced age. METHODS: Using a population representative sample of 5088 adults aged •50 years from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, we investigated relationships of polygenic predisposition to general cognition with a rate of change in cognition during a 10-year follow-up period. Polygenic predisposition was measured with polygenic scores for general cognition (GC-PGS). Cognition was measured employing tests for verbal memory and semantic fluency. RESULTS: The average baseline memory score was 11.1 (s.d. = 2.9) and executive function score was 21.5 (s.d. = 5.8). An increase in GC-PGS by one standard deviation (1-s.d.) was associated with a higher baseline verbal memory by an average 0.27 points (95% CI 0.19-0.34, p < 0.001). Similarly, 1-s.d. increase in GC-PGS was associated with a higher semantic fluency score at baseline in the entire sample (ß = 0.45, 95% CI 0.27-0.64, p < 0.001). These associations were significant for women and men, and all age groups. Nonetheless, 1-s.d. increase in GC-PGS was not associated with decreases in verbal memory nor semantic fluency during follow-up in the entire sample, as well stratified models by sex and age. CONCLUSION: Although common genetic variants associated with general cognition additively are associated with a stable surplus to cognition in adults, a polygenic predisposition to general cognition is not associated with age-related cognitive decline during a 10-year follow-up.

High polygenic predisposition for ADHD and a greater risk of all-cause mortality: a large population-based longitudinal study.

BACKGROUND: Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is a highly heritable, neurodevelopmental disorder known to associate with more than double the risk of death compared with people without ADHD. Because most research on ADHD has focused on children and adolescents, among whom death rates are relatively low, the impact of a high polygenic predisposition to ADHD on accelerating mortality risk in older adults is unknown. Thus, the aim of the study was to investigate if a high polygenetic predisposition to ADHD exacerbates the risk of all-cause mortality in older adults from the general population in the UK. METHODS: Utilising data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, which is an ongoing multidisciplinary study of the English population aged ≥ 50 years, polygenetic scores for ADHD were calculated using summary statistics for (1) ADHD (PGS-ADHDsingle) and (2) chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and younger age of giving first birth, which were shown to have a strong genetic correlation with ADHD using the multi-trait analysis of genome-wide association summary statistics; this polygenic score was referred to as PGS-ADHDmulti-trait. All-cause mortality was ascertained from the National Health Service central register that captures all deaths occurring in the UK. RESULTS: The sample comprised 7133 participants with a mean age of 64.7 years (SD = 9.5, range = 50-101); of these, 1778 (24.9%) died during a period of 11.2 years. PGS-ADHDsingle was associated with a greater risk of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.06, 95% CI = 1.02-1.12, p = 0.010); further analyses showed this relationship was significant in men (HR = 1.07, 95% CI = 1.00-1.14, p = 0.043). Risk of all-cause mortality increased by an approximate 11% for one standard deviation increase in PGS-ADHDmulti-trait (HR = 1.11, 95% CI = 1.06-1.16, p < 0.001). When the model was run separately for men and women, the association between PGS-ADHDmulti-trait and an increased risk of all-cause mortality was significant in men (HR = 1.10, 95% CI = 1.03-1.18, p = 0.003) and women (HR = 1.11, 95% CI = 1.04-1.19, p = 0.003). CONCLUSIONS: A high polygenetic predisposition to ADHD is a risk factor for all-cause mortality in older adults. This risk is better captured when incorporating genetic information from correlated traits.

Interplay between polygenic propensity for ageing-related traits and the consumption of fruits and vegetables on future dementia diagnosis.

BACKGROUND: Understanding how polygenic scores for ageing-related traits interact with diet in determining a future dementia including Alzheimer's diagnosis (AD) would increase our understanding of mechanisms underlying dementia onset. METHODS: Using 6784 population representative adults aged ≥50 years from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, we employed accelerated failure time survival model to investigate interactions between polygenic scores for AD (AD-PGS), schizophrenia (SZ-PGS) and general cognition (GC-PGS) and the baseline daily fruit and vegetable intake in association with dementia diagnosis during a 10-year follow-up. The baseline sample was obtained from waves 3-4 (2006-2009); follow-up data came from wave 5 (2010-2011) to wave 8 (2016-2017). RESULTS: Consuming < 5 portions of fruit and vegetables a day was associated with 33-37% greater risk for dementia in the following 10 years depending on an individual polygenic propensity. One standard deviation (1-SD) increase in AD-PGS was associated with 24% higher risk of dementia and 47% higher risk for AD diagnosis. 1-SD increase in SZ-PGS was associated with an increased risk of AD diagnosis by 66%(95%CI = 1.05-2.64) in participants who consumed < 5 portions of fruit or vegetables. There was a significant additive interaction between GC-PGS and < 5 portions of the baseline daily intake of fruit and vegetables in association with AD diagnosis during the 10-year follow-up (RERI = 0.70, 95%CI = 0.09-4.82; AP = 0.36, 95%CI = 0.17-0.66). CONCLUSION: A diet rich in fruit and vegetables is an important factor influencing the subsequent risk of dementia in the 10 years follow-up, especially in the context of polygenetic predisposition to AD, schizophrenia, and general cognition.

Prevention of psychosis: moving on from the at-risk mental state to universal primary prevention.

The value of services for those with the 'At Risk Mental State for Psychosis' (ARMS) continues to be disputed. ARMS services have provided a valuable stimulus to academic research into the transition into psychosis. Furthermore, there is currently a welcome trend to transform such clinics into youth mental health services catering for the broader clientele of young people suffering from anxiety and depression, who already constitute the bulk of those seen at ARMS clinics. However, such services are never likely to make major inroads into preventing psychosis because they only reach a small proportion of those at risk. Evidence from medicine shows that avoiding exposure to factors which increase the risk of disease (e.g. poor nutrition, transmission of infection, tobacco smoking), produces greater public benefit than focussing efforts on individuals with, or about to develop, disease. We consider that the most productive approach for psychosis prevention is avoiding exposure to risk-increasing factors. The best-established risk factors for psychosis are obstetric events, childhood abuse, migration, city living, adverse life events and cannabis use. Some as city living, are likely proxies for an unknown causal factor(s) while preventing others such as childhood abuse is currently beyond our powers. The risk factor for psychosis which is most readily open to this approach is the use of cannabis. Therefore, as an initial step towards a strategy for universal primary prevention, we advocate public health campaigns to educate young people about the harms of regular use of high potency cannabis.

Development and validation of prediction model to estimate 10-year risk of all-cause mortality using modern statistical learning methods: a large population-based cohort study and external validation.

BACKGROUND: In increasingly ageing populations, there is an emergent need to develop a robust prediction model for estimating an individual absolute risk for all-cause mortality, so that relevant assessments and interventions can be targeted appropriately. The objective of the study was to derive, evaluate and validate (internally and externally) a risk prediction model allowing rapid estimations of an absolute risk of all-cause mortality in the following 10 years. METHODS: For the model development, data came from English Longitudinal Study of Ageing study, which comprised 9154 population-representative individuals aged 50-75 years, 1240 (13.5%) of whom died during the 10-year follow-up. Internal validation was carried out using Harrell's optimism-correction procedure; external validation was carried out using Health and Retirement Study (HRS), which is a nationally representative longitudinal survey of adults aged ≥50 years residing in the United States. Cox proportional hazards model with regularisation by the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator, where optimisation parameters were chosen based on repeated cross-validation, was employed for variable selection and model fitting. Measures of calibration, discrimination, sensitivity and specificity were determined in the development and validation cohorts. RESULTS: The model selected 13 prognostic factors of all-cause mortality encompassing information on demographic characteristics, health comorbidity, lifestyle and cognitive functioning. The internally validated model had good discriminatory ability (c-index=0.74), specificity (72.5%) and sensitivity (73.0%). Following external validation, the model's prediction accuracy remained within a clinically acceptable range (c-index=0.69, calibration slope ß=0.80, specificity=71.5% and sensitivity=70.6%). The main limitation of our model is twofold: 1) it may not be applicable to nursing home and other institutional populations, and 2) it was developed and validated in the cohorts with predominately white ethnicity. CONCLUSIONS: A new prediction model that quantifies absolute risk of all-cause mortality in the following 10-years in the general population has been developed and externally validated. It has good prediction accuracy and is based on variables that are available in a variety of care and research settings. This model can facilitate identification of high risk for all-cause mortality older adults for further assessment or interventions.

Hospitalisation and length of hospital stay following first-episode psychosis: systematic review and meta-analysis of longitudinal studies.

BACKGROUND: Reducing hospitalisation and length of stay (LOS) in hospital following first episode psychosis (FEP) is important, yet reliable measures of these outcomes and their moderators are lacking. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to investigate the proportion of FEP cases who were hospitalised after their first contact with services and the LOS in a hospital during follow-up. METHODS: Studies were identified from a systematic search across major electronic databases from inception to October 2017. Random effects meta-analyses and meta-regression analyses were conducted. RESULTS: 81 longitudinal studies encompassing data for 23 280 FEP patients with an average follow-up length of 7 years were included. 55% (95% CI 50.3-60.5%) of FEP cases were hospitalised at least once during follow-up with the pooled average LOS of 116.7 days (95% CI 95.1-138.3). Older age of illness onset and being in a stable relationship were associated with a lower proportion of people who were hospitalised. While the proportion of hospitalised patients has not decreased over time, LOS has, with the sharpest reduction in the latest time period. The proportion of patients hospitalised during follow-up was highest in Australia and New Zealand (78.4%) compared to Europe (58.1%) and North America (48.0%); and lowest in Asia (32.5%). Black ethnicity and longer duration of untreated psychosis were associated with longer LOS; while less severe psychotic symptoms at baseline were associated with shorter LOS. CONCLUSION: One in two FEP cases required hospitalisation at least once during a 7-year follow-up with an average length of hospitalisation of 4 months during this period. LOS has declined over time, particularly in those countries in which it was previously longest.

Can metacognitive interventions improve insight in schizophrenia spectrum disorders? A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Patients with schizophrenia spectrum disorders (SSD) tend to lack insight, which is linked to poor outcomes. The effect size of previous treatments on insight changes in SSD has been small. Metacognitive interventions may improve insight in SSD, although this remains unproved. METHODS: We carried out a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) to examine the effects of metacognitive interventions designed for SSD, namely Metacognitive Training (MCT) and Metacognitive Reflection and Insight Therapy (MERIT), on changes in cognitive and clinical insight at post-treatment and at follow-up. RESULTS: Twelve RCTs, including 10 MCT RCTs (n = 717 participants) and two MERIT trials (n = 90), were selected, totalling N = 807 participants. Regarding cognitive insight six RCTs (n = 443) highlighted a medium effect of MCT on self-reflectiveness at post-treatment, d = 0.46, p < 0.01, and at follow-up, d = 0.30, p < 0.01. There was a small effect of MCT on self-certainty at post-treatment, d = -0.23, p = 0.03, but not at follow-up. MCT was superior to controls on an overall Composite Index of cognitive insight at post-treatment, d = 1.11, p < 0.01, and at follow-up, d = 0.86, p = 0.03, although we found evidence of heterogeneity. Of five MCT trials on clinical insight (n = 244 participants), which could not be meta-analysed, four of them favoured MCT compared v. control. The two MERIT trials reported conflicting results. CONCLUSIONS: Metacognitive interventions, particularly Metacognitive Training, appear to improve insight in patients with SSD, especially cognitive insight shortly after treatment. Further long-term RCTs are needed to establish whether these metacognitive interventions-related insight changes are sustained over a longer time period and result in better outcomes.

'At risk mental state' clinics for psychosis - an idea whose time has come - and gone!

At Risk Mental State (ARMS) clinics are specialised mental health services for young, help-seeking people, thought to be at ultra-high risk of developing psychosis. Their stated purpose is to reduce transitions from the ARMS state to clinical psychotic disorder. Reports of ARMS clinics provide 'evidence-based recommendations' or 'guidance' for the treatment of such individuals, and claim that such clinics prevent the development of psychosis. However, we note that in an area with a very well-developed ARMS clinic (South London), only a very small proportion (4%) of patients with first episode psychosis had previously been seen at this clinic with symptoms of the ARMS. We conclude that the task of reaching sufficient people to make a major contribution to the prevention of psychosis is beyond the power of ARMS clinics. Following the preventative approaches used for many medical disorders (e.g. lung cancer, coronary artery disease), we consider that a more effective way of preventing psychosis will be to adopt a public health approach; this should attempt to decrease exposure to environmental factors such as cannabis use which are known to increase risk of the disorder.

Jumping to conclusions at first onset of psychosis predicts longer admissions, more compulsory admissions and police involvement over the next 4 years: the GAP study.

BACKGROUND: Jumping to conclusions (JTC), which is the proneness to require less information before forming beliefs or making a decision, has been related to formation and maintenance of delusions. Using data from the National Institute of Health Research Biomedical Research Centre Genetics and Psychosis (GAP) case-control study of first-episode psychosis (FEP), we set out to test whether the presence of JTC would predict poor clinical outcome at 4 years. METHODS: One-hundred and twenty-three FEP patients were assessed with the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS), Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF) and the probabilistic reasoning 'Beads' Task at the time of recruitment. The sample was split into two groups based on the presence of JTC bias. Follow-up data over an average of 4 years were obtained concerning clinical course and outcomes (remission, intervention of police, use of involuntary treatment - the Mental Health Act (MHA) - and inpatient days). RESULTS: FEP who presented JTC at baseline were more likely during the follow-up period to be detained under the MHA [adjusted OR 15.62, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.92-83.54, p = 0.001], require intervention by the police (adjusted OR 14.95, 95% CI 2.68-83.34, p = 0.002) and have longer admissions (adjusted IRR = 5.03, 95% CI 1.91-13.24, p = 0.001). These associations were not accounted for by socio-demographic variables, IQ and symptom dimensions. CONCLUSIONS: JTC in FEP is associated with poorer outcome as indicated and defined by more compulsion police intervention and longer periods of admission. Our findings raise the question of whether the implementation of specific interventions to reduce JTC, such as Metacognition Training, may be a useful addition in early psychosis intervention programmes.

Acetyl-L-Carnitine Supplementation and the Treatment of Depressive Symptoms: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

OBJECTIVE: Deficiency of acetyl-L-carnitine (ALC) seems to play a role in the risk of developing depression, indicating a dysregulation of fatty acid transport across the inner membrane of mitochondria. However, data about ALC supplementation in humans are limited. We thus conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis investigating the effect of ALC on depressive symptoms across randomized controlled trials (RCTs). METHODS: A literature search in major databases, without language restriction, was undertaken from inception until 30 December 2016. Eligible studies were RCTs of ALC alone or in combination with antidepressant medications, with a control group taking placebo/no intervention or antidepressants. Standardized mean differences (SMDs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were used for summarizing outcomes with a random-effect model. RESULTS: Twelve RCTs (11 of which were ALC monotherapy) with a total of 791 participants (mean age = 54 years, % female = 65%) were included. Pooled data across nine RCTs (231 treated with ALC versus 216 treated with placebo and 20 no intervention) showed that ALC significantly reduced depressive symptoms (SMD = -1.10, 95% CI = -1.65 to -0.56, I = 86%). In three RCTs comparing ALC versus antidepressants (162 for each group), ALC demonstrated similar effectiveness compared with established antidepressants in reducing depressive symptoms (SMD = 0.06, 95% CI = -0.22 to 0.34, I = 31%). In these latter RCTs, the incidence of adverse effects was significantly lower in the ALC group than in the antidepressant group. Subgroup analyses suggested that ALC was most efficacious in older adults. CONCLUSIONS: ALC supplementation significantly decreases depressive symptoms compared with placebo/no intervention, while offering a comparable effect with that of established antidepressant agents with fewer adverse effects. Future large scale trials are required to confirm/refute these findings.

Remission and recovery from first-episode psychosis in adults: systematic review and meta-analysis of long-term outcome studies.

BackgroundRemission and recovery rates for people with first-episode psychosis (FEP) remain uncertain.AimsTo assess pooled prevalence rates of remission and recovery in FEP and to investigate potential moderators.MethodWe conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess pooled prevalence rates of remission and recovery in FEP in longitudinal studies with more than 1 year of follow-up data, and conducted meta-regression analyses to investigate potential moderators.ResultsSeventy-nine studies were included representing 19072 patients with FEP. The pooled rate of remission among 12301 individuals with FEP was 58% (60 studies, mean follow-up 5.5 years). Higher remission rates were moderated by studies from more recent years. The pooled prevalence of recovery among 9642 individuals with FEP was 38% (35 studies, mean follow-up 7.2 years). Recovery rates were higher in North America than in other regions.ConclusionsRemission and recovery rates in FEP may be more favourable than previously thought. We observed stability of recovery rates after the first 2 years, suggesting that a progressive deteriorating course of illness is not typical. Although remission rates have improved over time recovery rates have not, raising questions about the effectiveness of services in achieving improved recovery.

Only a small proportion of patients with first episode psychosis come via prodromal services: a retrospective survey of a large UK mental health programme.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about patients with a first episode of psychosis (FEP) who had first presented to prodromal services with an "at risk mental state" (ARMS) before making the transition to psychosis. We set out to identify the proportion of patients with a FEP who had first presented to prodromal services in the ARMS state, and to compare these FEP patients with FEP patients who did not have prior contact with prodromal services. METHODS: In this study information on 338 patients aged ≤37 years who presented to mental health services between 2010 and 2012 with a FEP was examined. The data on pathways to care, clinical and socio-demographic characteristics were extracted from the Biomedical Research Council Case Register for the South London and Maudsley NHS Trust. RESULTS: Over 2 years, 14 (4.1% of n = 338) young adults presented with FEP and had been seen previously by the prodromal services. These ARMS patients were more likely to enter their pathway to psychiatric care via referral from General Practice, be born in the UK and to have had an insidious mode of illness onset than FEP patients without prior contact with the prodromal services. CONCLUSIONS: In the current pathways to care configuration, prodromal services are likely to prevent only a few at-risk individuals from transitioning to psychosis even if effective preventative treatments become available.

Can cognitive insight predict symptom remission in a first episode psychosis cohort?

BACKGROUND: The outcome of first episode psychosis (FEP) is highly variable and difficult to predict. Cognitive insight measured at illness onset has previously been found to predict psychopathology 12-months later. The aims of this study were to examine whether the prospective relationship between cognitive insight and symptom severity is evident at four-years following FEP and to examine some psychological correlates of cognitive insight. METHODS: FEP participants (n = 90) completed the Beck Cognitive Insight Scale (BCIS) at illness onset, and associations between BCIS scores with symptom severity outcomes (4-years after FEP) were assessed. The BCIS scales (self-reflectiveness and self-certainty) were examined as a composite score, and individually compared to other cognitive measures (IQ and jumping to conclusions (JTC) bias). RESULTS: Regression analyses revealed that the cognitive insight composite did not predict 4-year symptom remission in this study while the self-reflection subscale of the BCIS predicted severity of symptoms at 4-years. Self-certainty items of the BCIS were not associated with symptom severity. Significant correlations between the JTC bias, self-certainty and IQ were found, but self-reflection did not correlate with these other cognitive measures. CONCLUSIONS: Self-reflective capacity is a more relevant and independent cognitive construct than self-certainty for predicting prospective symptom severity in psychosis. Improving self-reflection may be a useful target for early intervention research.

Patterns of illness and care over the 5 years following onset of psychosis in different ethnic groups; the GAP-5 study.

PURPOSE: Previous research has not provided us with a comprehensive picture of the longitudinal course of psychotic disorders in Black people living in Europe. We sought to investigate clinical outcomes and pattern of care in Black African and Black Caribbean groups compared with White British patients during the first 5 years after first contact with mental health services for psychosis. METHODS: 245 FEP cases aged 18-65 who presented to psychiatric services in 2005-2010 in South London (UK). Using the electronic psychiatric clinical notes in the South London and Maudsley NHS Foundation Trust (SLaM), extensive information was collected on three domains-clinical, social, and service use. RESULTS: During the 5-year follow-up (mean = 5.1 years, s.d. = 2.4; 1251 person years) after first contact with mental health services, a higher proportion of Black African and Black Caribbean ethnicity had compulsory re-admissions (χ 2 = 17.34, p = 0.002) and instances of police involvement during an admission to a psychiatric unit (χ 2 = 22.82, p < 0.001) compared with White British ethnic group. Patients of Black African and Black Caribbean ethnicity did not differ from the ethnic group in overall functional disability and illness severity, or frequency of remission or recovery during the follow-up period. However, patients of Black ethnicity become increasing socially excluded as their illness progress. CONCLUSIONS: The longitudinal trajectory of psychosis in patients of Black ethnicity did not show greater clinical or functional deterioration than white patients. However, their course remains characterised by more compulsion, and longer periods of admission.

The emerging molecular architecture of schizophrenia, polygenic risk scores and the clinical implications for GxE research.

Schizophrenia is a devastating mental disorder. The level of risk in the general population is sustained by the persistence of social, environmental and biological factors, as well as their interactions. Socio-environmental risk factors for schizophrenia are well established and robust. The same can belatedly be said of genetic risk factors for the disorder. Recent progress in schizophrenia genetics is primarily fuelled by genome-wide association, which is able to leverage substantial proportions of additional explained variance previously classified as 'missing'. Here, we provide an outline of the emerging genetic landscape of schizophrenia and demonstrate how this knowledge can be turned into a simple empirical measure of genetic risk, known as a polygenic risk score. We highlight the statistical framework used to assess the clinical potential of the new score and finally, draw relevance to and discuss the clinical implications for the study of gene-environment interaction.

The effect of heavy smoking on retirement risk: A mendelian randomisation analysis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The extent to which heavy smoking and retirement risk are causally related remains to be determined. To overcome the endogeneity of heavy smoking behaviour, we employed a novel approach by exploiting the genetic predisposition to heavy smoking, as measured with a polygenic risk score (PGS), in a Mendelian Randomisation approach. METHODS: 8164 participants (mean age 68.86 years) from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing had complete data on smoking behaviour, employment and a heavy smoking PGS. Heavy smoking was indexed as smoking at least 20 cigarettes a day. A time-to-event Mendelian Randomization (MR) analysis, using a complementary log-log (cloglog) link function, was employed to model the retirement risk. RESULTS: Our results show that being a heavy smoker significantly increases the risk of retirement (ß = 1.324, standard error = 0.622, p < 0.05). Results were robust to a battery of checks and a placebo analysis considering the never-smokers. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, our findings support a causal pathway from heavy smoking to earlier retirement.

Long-Term Course of Remission and Recovery in Psychotic Disorders.

OBJECTIVE: Understanding prognosis is critical to anticipating public health needs and providing care to individuals with psychotic disorders. However, the long-term course of remission and recovery remains unclear. In this study, the most common trajectories of illness course are described for a cohort of individuals followed for 25 years since first admission for psychosis. METHODS: Participants are from the Suffolk County Mental Health Project, an epidemiological study of first-admission psychosis. Data for the present study was collected from six follow-ups, with 311 individuals assessed at the 25-year follow-up. Common patterns of remission and recovery were assessed in the baseline cohort of 591 individuals and the subsample from the 25-year follow up. RESULTS: In the baseline cohort and the 25-year subsample, the most common trajectory for individuals with schizophrenia spectrum disorders was no remission and no recovery. Among individuals with other psychotic disorders, in both the baseline and 25-year cohorts, the modal pattern was one of intermittent remission and recovery. Individuals with other psychotic disorders were more likely to experience stable remission (15.1%) and stable recovery (21.1%), outcomes that were rare among individuals with schizophrenia spectrum disorders (0% and 0.6%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: The modal longitudinal pattern for individuals with other psychoses is one of multiple transitions into and out of symptomatic and functional recovery. Engagement in a long-term health care plan may help individuals detect and respond to these changes. Sustained remission and recovery are rare among people with schizophrenia spectrum disorders. Efforts should be directed toward developing more effective treatments for this population.

The role of loneliness in the association between sexual orientation and depressive symptoms among older adults: A prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: This study aims to understand the mechanisms contributing to the elevated risk of depression among sexual minority older adults compared to heterosexuals. Specifically, the role of loneliness as a potential mediator is investigated to inform targeted interventions for preventing depression in sexual minority populations. METHODS: Data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, focusing on adults aged over 50, were analysed. Sexual orientation (sexual minority or heterosexual) and loneliness scores (UCLA scale) were assessed at wave six (2010-2011), while depressive symptoms (CESD) were assessed at wave seven (2013-14). Linear regression models and mediation analyses, using g-computation formula and adjusted for confounders, were conducted. RESULTS: The sample included 6794 participants, with 478 (7.0 %) identifying as sexual minorities. After adjustments, sexual minorities scored higher on depressive symptoms at wave seven (mean difference): 0.23, 95 % CI 0.07 to 0.39) and loneliness at wave six (MD: 0.27, 95 % CI 0.08 to 0.46). Loneliness was positively associated with depressive symptoms (coefficient: 0.27, 95 % CI 0.26 to 0.29). In mediation analyses, loneliness explained 15 % of the association between sexual orientation and subsequent depressive symptoms. LIMITATIONS: The dataset used sexual behaviour rather than desire and identity, potentially skewing representation of sexual minorities. Additionally, transgender older adults were not included due to limited gender diversity reported within the ELSA dataset. CONCLUSIONS: Loneliness appears to be a significant modifiable mechanism contributing to the heightened risk of depressive symptoms in sexual minority older adults compared with their heterosexual counterparts.