The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability.

Ecological and societal disruptions by modern climate change are critically determined by the time frame over which climates shift beyond historical analogues. Here we present a new index of the year when the projected mean climate of a given location moves to a state continuously outside the bounds of historical variability under alternative greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Using 1860 to 2005 as the historical period, this index has a global mean of 2069 (±18 years s.d.) for near-surface air temperature under an emissions stabilization scenario and 2047 (±14 years s.d.) under a 'business-as-usual' scenario. Unprecedented climates will occur earliest in the tropics and among low-income countries, highlighting the vulnerability of global biodiversity and the limited governmental capacity to respond to the impacts of climate change. Our findings shed light on the urgency of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions if climates potentially harmful to biodiversity and society are to be prevented.

Exploring Science Identity and Latent Factors of Student Gains in a Place-based Marine Science CURE Designed to Provide Access to Hawai'i Students from Historically Marginalized Ethnicities.

Hawai'i students, and in particular Native Hawaiian students, face high rates of attrition and low representation in Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) academic majors and careers, but place-based Course-based Undergraduate Research Experiences (CUREs) such as the Research Experiences in Marine Science (REMS) summer program may help to better engage these students with scientific content understanding and skills development. This article assesses latent factors of student gains after participating in the REMS program as they relate to student science identity. Results from an exploratory factor analysis examining the internal structure of an assessment measure delivered during the program suggest strong evidence of four latent factors in student self-reported learning gains: Content Understanding, Scientific Skills, Interest, and Integration. These factors will guide the development and delivery of the REMS survey as it is applied to additional cohorts of students participating in REMS and other, similar programs being developed and implemented in Hawai'i to support Native Hawaiian students. Although there were no significant relationships between these factors and responses to a science identity survey item, additional insights from an alumna of the program highlight how place-based elements in CUREs provide authentic and rigorous research training experiences for students from populations historically marginalized in STEM.

Relevance of Science, Conceptualization of Scientists, and Contextualized "Failure" as Mediators in the Development of Student Science Identity.

The Research Experiences in Marine Science (REMS) Program is a Hawai'i place-based CURE (course-based undergraduate research experience) for late high school and early undergraduate students wherein students conduct independent research that draws upon the history, culture, and ecosystem of their local communities. In addition to providing meaningful access to marine science education and training, REMS addresses a fear of failure expressed by students who view their culture and personal identity as incompatible with undergraduate science pathways. Data about student attitudes toward and conceptualizations of science and scientists were collected through pre- and postprogram open-ended survey items, Draw-a-Scientist Tests, and postprogram interviews. Results suggest the combination of place-based elements and an authentic research experience shifted students' conceptualization of scientists to a "humanized" construct. The emergence of this theme coincided with students recognizing themselves as scientists, gaining confidence in content understanding and research skills, increasing interest in science as a career pathway, and recognizing how science affects their communities. This study demonstrates how a CURE that emphasizes the cultural relevance of science, an inclusive conceptualization of a "scientist", and contextualized role of "failure" in science, may contribute to historically marginalized students recognizing themselves as scientists and ultimately persisting in science careers.