Sparse estimation in semiparametric finite mixture of varying coefficient regression models.

Finite mixture of regressions (FMR) are commonly used to model heterogeneous effects of covariates on a response variable in settings where there are unknown underlying subpopulations. FMRs, however, cannot accommodate situations where covariates' effects also vary according to an "index" variable-known as finite mixture of varying coefficient regression (FM-VCR). Although complex, this situation occurs in real data applications: the osteocalcin (OCN) data analyzed in this manuscript presents a heterogeneous relationship where the effect of a genetic variant on OCN in each hidden subpopulation varies over time. Oftentimes, the number of covariates with varying coefficients also presents a challenge: in the OCN study, genetic variants on the same chromosome are considered jointly. The relative proportions of hidden subpopulations may also change over time. Nevertheless, existing methods cannot provide suitable solutions for accommodating all these features in real data applications. To fill this gap, we develop statistical methodologies based on regularized local-kernel likelihood for simultaneous parameter estimation and variable selection in sparse FM-VCR models. We study large-sample properties of the proposed methods. We then carry out a simulation study to evaluate the performance of various penalties adopted for our regularized approach and ascertain the ability of a BIC-type criterion for estimating the number of subpopulations. Finally, we applied the FM-VCR model to analyze the OCN data and identified several covariates, including genetic variants, that have age-dependent effects on OCN.

Personalized evaluation of the passive myocardium in ischemic cardiomyopathy via computational modeling using Bayesian optimization.

Biomechanics-based patient-specific modeling is a promising approach that has proved invaluable for its clinical potential to assess the adversities caused by ischemic heart disease (IHD). In the present study, we propose a framework to find the passive material properties of the myocardium and the unloaded shape of cardiac ventricles simultaneously in patients diagnosed with ischemic cardiomyopathy (ICM). This was achieved by minimizing the difference between the simulated and the target end-diastolic pressure-volume relationships (EDPVRs) using black-box Bayesian optimization, based on the finite element analysis (FEA). End-diastolic (ED) biventricular geometry and the location of the ischemia were determined from cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) imaging. We employed our pipeline to model the cardiac ventricles of three patients aged between 57 and 66 years, with and without the inclusion of valves. An excellent agreement between the simulated and the target EDPVRs has been reached. Our results revealed that the incorporation of valvular springs typically leads to lower hyperelastic parameters for both healthy and ischemic myocardium, as well as a higher fiber Green strain in the viable regions compared to models without valvular stiffness. Furthermore, the addition of valve-related effects did not result in significant changes in myofiber stress after optimization. We concluded that more accurate results could be obtained when cardiac valves were considered in modeling ventricles. The present novel and practical methodology paves the way for developing digital twins of ischemic cardiac ventricles, providing a non-invasive assessment for designing optimal personalized therapies in precision medicine.

A nonparametric test for equality of survival medians using right-censored prevalent cohort survival data.

The median is a robust summary commonly used for comparison between populations. The existing literature falls short in testing for equality of survival medians when the collected data do not form representative samples from their respective target populations and are subject to right censoring. Such data commonly occur in prevalent cohort studies with follow-up. We consider a particular case where the disease under study is stable, that is, the incidence rate of the disease is stable. It is known that survival data collected on diseased cases, when the disease under study is stable, form a length-biased sample from the target population. We fill the gap for the particular case of length-biased right-censored survival data by proposing a large-sample test using the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator of the survivor function in the target population. The small sample performance of the proposed test statistic is studied via simulation. We apply the proposed method to test for differences in survival medians of Alzheimer's disease and dementia groups using the survival data collected as part of the Canadian Study of Health and Aging.

Potential health benefits of eliminating traffic emissions in urban areas.

Traffic is one of the major contributors to PM2.5 in cities worldwide. Quantifying the role of traffic is an important step towards understanding the impact of transport policies on the possibilities to achieve cleaner air and accompanying health benefits. With the aim of estimating potential health benefits of eliminating traffic emissions, we carried out a meta-analysis using the World Health Organisation (WHO) database of source apportionment studies of PM2.5 concentrations. Specifically, we used a Bayesian meta-regression approach, modelling both overall and traffic-related (tailpipe and non-tailpipe) concentrations simultaneously. We obtained the distributions of expected PM2.5 concentrations (posterior densities) of different types for 117 cities worldwide. Using the non-linear Integrated Exposure Response (IER) function of PM2.5, we estimated percent reduction in different disease endpoints for a scenario with complete removal of traffic emissions. We found that eliminating traffic emissions results in achieving the WHO-recommended concentration of PM2.5 only for a handful of cities that already have low concentrations of pollution. The percentage reduction in premature mortality due to cardiovascular and respiratory diseases increases up to a point (30-40 ug/m3), and above this concentration, it flattens off. For diabetes-related mortality, the percentage reduction in mortality decreases with increasing concentrations-a trend that is opposite to other outcomes. For cities with high concentrations of pollution, the results highlight the need for multi-sectoral strategies to reduce pollution. The IER functions of PM2.5 result in diminishing returns of health benefits at high concentrations, and in case of diabetes, there are even negative returns. The results show the significant effect of the shape of IER functions on health benefits. Overall, despite the diminishing results, a significant burden of deaths can be prevented by policies that aim to reduce traffic emissions even at high concentrations of pollution.

Patient-specific finite element analysis of heart failure and the impact of surgical intervention in pulmonary hypertension secondary to mitral valve disease.

Pulmonary hypertension (PH), a chronic and complex medical condition affecting 1% of the global population, requires clinical evaluation of right ventricular maladaptation patterns under various conditions. A particular challenge for clinicians is a proper quantitative assessment of the right ventricle (RV) owing to its intimate coupling to the left ventricle (LV). We, thus, proposed a patient-specific computational approach to simulate PH caused by left heart disease and its main adverse functional and structural effects on the whole heart. Information obtained from both prospective and retrospective studies of two patients with severe PH, a 72-year-old female and a 61-year-old male, is used to present patient-specific versions of the Living Heart Human Model (LHHM) for the pre-operative and post-operative cardiac surgery. Our findings suggest that before mitral and tricuspid valve repair, the patients were at risk of right ventricular dilatation which may progress to right ventricular failure secondary to their mitral valve disease and left ventricular dysfunction. Our analysis provides detailed evidence that mitral valve replacement and subsequent chamber pressure unloading are associated with a significant decrease in failure risk post-operatively in the context of pulmonary hypertension. In particular, right-sided strain markers, such as tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion (TAPSE) and circumferential and longitudinal strains, indicate a transition from a range representative of disease to within typical values after surgery. Furthermore, the wall stresses across the RV and the interventricular septum showed a notable decrease during the systolic phase after surgery, lessening the drive for further RV maladaptation and significantly reducing the risk of RV failure.

Double bias: estimation of causal effects from length-biased samples in the presence of confounding.

Length bias in survival data occurs in observational studies when, for example, subjects with shorter lifetimes are less likely to be present in the recorded data. In this paper, we consider estimating the causal exposure (treatment) effect on survival time from observational data when, in addition to the lack of randomization and consequent potential for confounding, the data constitute a length-biased sample; we hence term this a double-bias problem. We develop estimating equations that can be used to estimate the causal effect indexing the structural Cox proportional hazard and accelerated failure time models for point exposures in double-bias settings. The approaches rely on propensity score-based adjustments, and we demonstrate that estimation of the propensity score must be adjusted to acknowledge the length-biased sampling. Large sample properties of the estimators are established and their small sample behavior is studied using simulations. We apply the proposed methods to a set of, partly synthesized, length-biased survival data collected as part of the Canadian Study of Health and Aging (CSHA) to compare survival of subjects with dementia among institutionalized patients versus those recruited from the community and depict their adjusted survival curves.

Propensity Score Estimation in the Presence of Length-biased Sampling: A Nonparametric Adjustment Approach.

The pervasive use of prevalent cohort studies on disease duration increasingly calls for an appropriate methodology to account for the biases that invariably accompany samples formed by such data. It is well-known, for example, that subjects with shorter lifetime are less likely to be present in such studies. Moreover, certain covariate values could be preferentially selected into the sample, being linked to the long-term survivors. The existing methodology for estimating the propensity score using data collected on prevalent cases requires the correct conditional survival/hazard function given the treatment and covariates. This requirement can be alleviated if the disease under study has stationary incidence, the so-called stationarity assumption. We propose a nonparametric adjustment technique based on a weighted estimating equation for estimating the propensity score which does not require modeling the conditional survival/hazard function when the stationarity assumption holds. The estimator's large-sample properties are established and its small-sample behavior is studied via simulation. The estimated propensity score is utilized to estimate the survival curves.

Estimating the lifetime risk of dementia in the Canadian elderly population using cross-sectional cohort survival data.

Dementia is one of the world's major public health challenges. The lifetime risk of dementia is the proportion of individuals who ever develop dementia during their lifetime. Despite its importance to epidemiologists and policy-makers, this measure does not seem to have been estimated in the Canadian population. Data from a birth cohort study of dementia are not available. Instead, we must rely on data from the Canadian Study of Heath and Aging, a large cross-sectional study of dementia with follow-up for survival. These data present challenges because they include substantial loss to follow-up and are not representatively drawn from the target population because of structural sampling biases. A first bias is imparted by the cross-sectional sampling scheme, while a second bias is a result of stratified sampling. Estimation of the lifetime risk and related quantities in the presence of these biases has not been previously addressed in the literature. We develop and study nonparametric estimators of the lifetime risk, the remaining lifetime risk and cumulative risk at specific ages, accounting for these complexities. In particular, we reveal the fact that estimation of the lifetime risk is invariant to stratification by current age at sampling. We present simulation results validating our methodology, and provide novel facts about the epidemiology of dementia in Canada using data from the Canadian Study of Health and Aging.

Trace elements can influence the physical properties of tooth enamel.

In previous studies, we showed that the size of apatite nanocrystals in tooth enamel can influence its physical properties. This important discovery raised a new question; which factors are regulating the size of these nanocrystals? Trace elements can affect crystallographic properties of synthetic apatite, therefore this study was designed to investigate how trace elements influence enamel's crystallographic properties and ultimately its physical properties. The concentration of trace elements in tooth enamel was determined for 38 extracted human teeth using inductively coupled plasma-optical emission spectroscopy (ICP-OES). The following trace elements were detected: Al, K, Mg, S, Na, Zn, Si, B, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Mo, Ni, Pb, Sb, Se and Ti. Simple and stepwise multiple regression was used to identify the correlations between trace elements concentration in enamel and its crystallographic structure, hardness, resistance to crack propagation, shade lightness and carbonate content. The presence of some trace elements in enamel was correlated with the size (Pb, Ti, Mn) and lattice parameters (Se, Cr, Ni) of apatite nanocrystals. Some trace elements such as Ti was significantly correlated with tooth crystallographic structure and consequently with hardness and shade lightness. We conclude that the presence of trace elements in enamel could influence its physical properties.

Nonparametric incidence estimation from prevalent cohort survival data.

Incidence is an important epidemiological concept most suitably studied using an incident cohort study. However, data are often collected from the more feasible prevalent cohort study, whereby diseased individuals are recruited through a cross-sectional survey and followed in time. In the absence of temporal trends in survival, we derive an efficient nonparametric estimator of the cumulative incidence based on such data and study its asymptotic properties. Arbitrary calendar time variations in disease incidence are allowed. Age-specific incidence and adjustments for both stratified sampling and temporal variations in survival are also discussed. Simulation results are presented and data from the Canadian Study of Health and Aging are analysed to infer the incidence of dementia in the Canadian elderly population.

Balancing and elimination of nuisance variables.

Addressing covariate imbalance in causal analysis will be reformulated as an elimination of the nuisance variables problem. We show, within a counterfactual balanced setting, how averaging, conditioning, and marginalization techniques can be used to reduce bias due to a possibly large number of imbalanced baseline confounders. The notions of X-sufficient and X-ancillary quantities are discussed and, as an example, we show how sliced inverse regression and related methods from regression theory that estimate a basis for a central sufficient subspace provide alternative summaries to propensity based analysis. Examples for exponential families and elliptically symmetric families of distributions are provided.

Checking stationarity of the incidence rate using prevalent cohort survival data.

When survival data are collected as part of a prevalent cohort study with follow-up, the recruited cases have already experienced their initiating event, say onset of a disease, and consequently the incidence process is only partially observed. Nevertheless, there are good reasons for interest in certain features of the underlying incidence process, for example whether or not it is stationary. Indeed, the well known relationship between incidence and prevalence, often used by epidemiologists, requires stationarity of the incidence rate for its validity. Also, the statistician can exploit stationarity of the incidence process by improving the efficiency of estimators in a prevalent cohort survival analysis. In addition, whether the incident rate is stationary is often in itself of central importance to medical and other researchers. We present here a necessary and sufficient condition for stationarity of the underlying incidence process, which uses only survival observations, possibly right censored, from a prevalent cohort study with follow-up. This leads to a simple graphical means of checking for the stationarity of the underlying incidence times by comparing the plots of two Kaplan-Meier estimates that are based on partially observed incidence times and follow-up survival data. We use our method to discuss the incidence rate of dementia in Canada between 1971 and 1991.