RESUMEN
To guide the collection of data under emergent epidemic conditions, we reviewed compartmental models of historical Ebola outbreaks to determine their implications and limitations. We identified future modeling directions and propose that the minimal epidemiologic dataset for Ebola model construction comprises duration of incubation period and symptomatic period, distribution of secondary cases by infection setting, and compliance with intervention recommendations.
Asunto(s)
Transmisión de Enfermedad Infecciosa/estadística & datos numéricos , Epidemias/estadística & datos numéricos , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola/epidemiología , Modelos Biológicos , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola/transmisión , Humanos , Modelos TeóricosRESUMEN
Mathematical models of typhoid transmission were first developed nearly half a century ago. To facilitate a better understanding of the historical development of this field, we reviewed mathematical models of typhoid and summarized their structures and limitations. Eleven models, published in 1971 to 2014, were reviewed. While models of typhoid vaccination are well developed, we highlight the need to better incorporate water, sanitation and hygiene interventions into models of typhoid and other foodborne and waterborne diseases. Mathematical modeling is a powerful tool to test and compare different intervention strategies which is important in the world of limited resources. By working collaboratively, epidemiologists and mathematicians should build better mathematical models of typhoid transmission, including pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions, which will be useful in epidemiological and public health practice.