Incident heart failure in chronic kidney disease: proteomics informs biology and risk stratification.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Incident heart failure (HF) among individuals with chronic kidney disease (CKD) incurs hospitalizations that burden patients and health care systems. There are few preventative therapies, and the Pooled Cohort equations to Prevent Heart Failure (PCP-HF) perform poorly in the setting of CKD. New drug targets and better risk stratification are urgently needed. METHODS: In this analysis of incident HF, SomaScan V4.0 (4638 proteins) was analysed in 2906 participants of the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) with validation in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study. The primary outcome was 14-year incident HF (390 events); secondary outcomes included 4-year HF (183 events), HF with reduced ejection fraction (137 events), and HF with preserved ejection fraction (165 events). Mendelian randomization and Gene Ontology were applied to examine causality and pathways. The performance of novel multi-protein risk models was compared to the PCP-HF risk score. RESULTS: Over 200 proteins were associated with incident HF after adjustment for estimated glomerular filtration rate at P < 1 × 10-5. After adjustment for covariates including N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, 17 proteins remained associated at P < 1 × 10-5. Mendelian randomization associations were found for six proteins, of which four are druggable targets: FCG2B, IGFBP3, CAH6, and ASGR1. For the primary outcome, the C-statistic (95% confidence interval [CI]) for the 48-protein model in CRIC was 0.790 (0.735, 0.844) vs. 0.703 (0.644, 0.762) for the PCP-HF model (P = .001). C-statistic (95% CI) for the protein model in ARIC was 0.747 (0.707, 0.787). CONCLUSIONS: Large-scale proteomics reveal novel circulating protein biomarkers and potential mediators of HF in CKD. Proteomic risk models improve upon the PCP-HF risk score in this population.

Apixaban for Patients With Atrial Fibrillation on Hemodialysis: A Multicenter Randomized Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: There are no randomized data evaluating the safety or efficacy of apixaban for stroke prevention in patients with end-stage kidney disease on hemodialysis and with atrial fibrillation (AF). METHODS: The RENAL-AF trial (Renal Hemodialysis Patients Allocated Apixaban Versus Warfarin in Atrial Fibrillation) was a prospective, randomized, open-label, blinded-outcome evaluation (PROBE) of apixaban versus warfarin in patients receiving hemodialysis with AF and a CHA2DS2-VASc score ≥2. Patients were randomly assigned 1:1 to 5 mg of apixaban twice daily (2.5 mg twice daily for patients ≥80 years of age, weight ≤60 kg, or both) or dose-adjusted warfarin. The primary outcome was time to major or clinically relevant nonmajor bleeding. Secondary outcomes included stroke, mortality, and apixaban pharmacokinetics. Pharmacokinetic sampling was day 1, day 3, and month 1. RESULTS: From January 2017 through January 2019, 154 patients were randomly assigned to apixaban (n=82) or warfarin (n=72). The trial stopped prematurely because of enrollment challenges. Time in therapeutic range (international normalized ratio, 2.0-3.0) for warfarin-treated patients was 44% (interquartile range, 23%-59%). The 1-year rates for major or clinically relevant nonmajor bleeding were 32% and 26% in apixaban and warfarin groups, respectively (hazard ratio, 1.20 [95% CI, 0.63-2.30]), whereas 1-year rates for stroke or systemic embolism were 3.0% and 3.3% in apixaban and warfarin groups, respectively. Death was the most common major event in the apixaban (21 patients [26%]) and warfarin (13 patients [18%]) arms. The pharmacokinetic substudy enrolled the target 50 patients. Median steady-state 12-hour area under the curve was 2475 ng/mL×h (10th to 90th percentiles, 1342-3285) for 5 mg of apixaban twice daily and 1269 ng/mL×h (10th to 90th percentiles, 615-1946) for 2.5 mg of apixaban twice daily. There was substantial overlap between minimum apixaban blood concentration, 12-hour area under the curve, and maximum apixaban blood concentration for patients with and without a major or clinically relevant nonmajor bleeding event. CONCLUSIONS: There was inadequate power to draw any conclusion regarding rates of major or clinically relevant nonmajor bleeding comparing apixaban and warfarin in patients with AF and end-stage kidney disease on hemodialysis. Clinically relevant bleeding events were ≈10-fold more frequent than stroke or systemic embolism among this population on anticoagulation, highlighting the need for future randomized studies evaluating the risks versus benefits of anticoagulation among patients with AF and end-stage kidney disease on hemodialysis. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov; Unique identifier: NCT02942407.

Research Opportunities in Stroke Prevention for Atrial Fibrillation: A Report From a National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute Virtual Workshop.

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is one of the strongest risk factors for ischemic stroke, which is a leading cause of disability and death. Given the aging population, increasing prevalence of AF risk factors, and improved survival in those with cardiovascular disease, the number of individuals affected by AF will continue increasing over time. While multiple proven stroke prevention therapies exist, important questions remain about the optimal approach to stroke prevention at the population and individual patient levels. Our report summarizes the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute virtual workshop focused on identifying key research opportunities related to stroke prevention in AF. The workshop reviewed major knowledge gaps and identified targeted research opportunities to advance stroke prevention in AF in the following areas: (1) improving risk stratification tools for stroke and intracranial hemorrhage; (2) addressing challenges with oral anticoagulants; and (3) delineating the optimal roles of percutaneous left atrial appendage occlusion and surgical left atrial appendage closure/excision. This report aims to promote innovative, impactful research that will lead to more personalized, effective use of stroke prevention strategies in people with AF.

High-Density Lipoprotein Lipidomics in Chronic Kidney Disease.

BACKGROUND: Patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) have dysfunctional high-density lipoprotein (HDL) particles as compared with the general population. Understanding the lipid composition of HDL may provide mechanistic insight. We tested associations of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albuminuria with relative HDL abundance of ceramides, sphingomyelins, and phosphatidylcholines in participants with CKD. METHODS: We studied 490 participants with CKD from the Seattle Kidney Study. HDL was isolated from plasma; targeted lipidomics was used to quantify the relative abundance of ceramides, sphingomyelins, and phosphatidylcholines per 10 µg of total HDL protein. We evaluated the associations of eGFR and albuminuria with levels of individual lipids and lipid classes (including 7 ceramides, 6 sphingomyelins, and 24 phosphatidylcholines) using multivariable linear regression, controlling for multiple comparisons via the false discovery rate. RESULTS: The mean (SD) eGFR was 45 (24) mL/min/1.73 m2; the median (IQR[interquartile range]) albuminuria was 108 (16, 686) mg/g (12.2 [1.8, 77.6] mg/mmol) urine creatinine. After adjusting for demographics, past medical history, laboratory values, and medication use, eGFR was not associated with higher relative abundance of any class of lipids or individual lipids. Greater albuminuria was significantly associated with a higher relative abundance of total ceramides and moderate-long R-chain sphingomyelins, ceramides 22:0 and 24:1, hexosylceramide 16:0, sphingomyelin 16:0, and phosphatidylcholines 29:0, 30:1, and 38:2; the strongest association was for hexosylceramide 16:0 (increase per doubling of urine albumin to creatinine ratio 0.022 (95% CI, 0.012-0.032). CONCLUSIONS: Greater albuminuria was significantly associated with specific alterations in the lipid composition of HDL in participants with CKD.

Heart Failure-Type Symptom Score Trajectories in CKD: Findings From the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) Study.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: Quality of life in chronic kidney disease (CKD) is impaired by a large burden of symptoms including some that overlap with the symptoms of heart failure (HF). We studied a group of individuals with CKD to understand the patterns and trajectories of HF-type symptoms in this setting. STUDY DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: 3,044 participants in the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) without prior diagnosis of HF. PREDICTORS: Sociodemographics, medical history, medications, vital signs, laboratory values, echocardiographic and electrocardiographic parameters. OUTCOME: Trajectory over 5.5 years of a HF-type symptom score (modified Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire [KCCQ] Overall Summary Score with a range of 0-100 where<75 reflects clinically significant symptoms). ANALYTICAL APPROACH: Latent class mixed models were used to model trajectories. Multinomial logistic regression was used to model relationships of predictors with trajectory group membership. RESULTS: Five trajectories of KCCQ score were identified in the cohort of 3,044 adults, 45% of whom were female, and whose median age was 61 years. Group 1 (41.7%) had a stable high score (minimal symptoms, average score of 96); groups 2 (35.6%) and 3 (15.6%) had stable but lower scores (mild symptoms [average of 81] and clinically significant symptoms [average of 52], respectively). Group 4 (4.9%) had a substantial worsening in symptoms over time (mean 31-point decline), and group 5 (2.2%) had a substantial improvement (mean 33-point increase) in KCCQ score. A majority of group 1 was male, without diabetes or obesity, and this group had higher baseline kidney function. A majority of groups 2 and 3 had diabetes and obesity. A majority of group 4 was male and had substantial proteinuria. Group 5 had the highest proportion of baseline cardiovascular disease (CVD). LIMITATIONS: No validation cohort available, CKD management changes in recent years may alter trajectories, and latent class models depend on the missing at random assumption. CONCLUSIONS: Distinct HF-type symptom burden trajectories were identified in the setting of CKD, corresponding to different baseline characteristics. These results highlight the diversity of HF-type symptom experiences in individuals with CKD.

Changes in Natriuretic Peptide Levels and Subsequent Kidney Function Decline in SPRINT.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: Novel approaches to the assessment of kidney disease risk during hypertension treatment are needed because of the uncertainty of how intensive blood pressure (BP) lowering impacts kidney outcomes. We determined whether longitudinal N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) measurements during hypertension treatment are associated with kidney function decline. STUDY DESIGN: Prospective observational study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: 8,005 SPRINT (Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial) participants with NT-proBNP measurements at baseline and 1 year. EXPOSURE: 1-year change in NT-proBNP categorized as a ≥25% decrease, ≥25% increase, or <25% change (stable). OUTCOME: Annualized change in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and ≥30% decrease in eGFR. ANALYTICAL APPROACH: Linear mixed-effect and logistic regression models were used to evaluate the association of changes in NT-proBNP with subsequent annualized change in eGFR and ≥30% decrease in eGFR, respectively. Analyses were stratified by baseline chronic kidney disease (CKD) status. RESULTS: Compared with stable 1-year NT-proBNP levels, a ≥25% decrease in NT-proBNP was associated with a slower decrease in eGFR in participants with CKD (adjusted difference, 1.09%/y; 95% CI, 0.35-1.83) and without CKD (adjusted difference, 0.51%/y; 95% CI, 0.21-0.81; P = 0.4 for interaction). Meanwhile, a ≥25% increase in NT-proBNP in participants with CKD was associated with a faster decrease in eGFR (adjusted difference, -1.04%/y; 95% CI, -1.72 to -0.36) and risk of a ≥30% decrease in eGFR (adjusted odds ratio, 1.44; 95% CI, 1.06-1.96); associations were stronger in participants with CKD than in participants without CKD (P = 0.01 and P < 0.001 for interaction, respectively). Relationships were similar irrespective of the randomized BP arm in SPRINT (P > 0.2 for interactions). LIMITATIONS: Persons with diabetes and proteinuria >1 g/d were excluded. CONCLUSIONS: Changes in NT-proBNP during BP treatment are independently associated with subsequent kidney function decline, particularly in people with CKD. Future studies should assess whether routine NT-proBNP measurements may be useful in monitoring kidney risk during hypertension treatment. PLAIN-LANGUAGE SUMMARY: N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) is a biomarker in the blood that reflects mechanical stress on the heart. Measuring NT-proBNP may be helpful in assessing the risk of long-term losses of kidney function. In this study, we investigated the association of changes in NT-proBNP with subsequent kidney function among individuals with and without chronic kidney disease. We found that increases in NT-proBNP are associated with a faster rate of decline of kidney function, independent of baseline kidney measures. The associations were more pronounced in individuals with chronic kidney disease. Our results advance the notion of considering NT-proBNP as a dynamic tool for assessing kidney disease risk.

Management of Adults with Newly Diagnosed Atrial Fibrillation with and without CKD.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is highly prevalent in CKD and is associated with worse cardiovascular and kidney outcomes. Limited data exist on use of AF pharmacotherapies and AF-related procedures by CKD status. We examined a large "real-world" contemporary population with incident AF to study the association of CKD with management of AF. METHODS: We identified patients with newly diagnosed AF between 2010 and 2017 from two large, integrated health care delivery systems. eGFR (≥60, 45-59, 30-44, 15-29, <15 ml/min per 1.73 m2) was calculated from a minimum of two ambulatory serum creatinine measures separated by ≥90 days. AF medications and procedures were identified from electronic health records. We performed multivariable Fine-Gray subdistribution hazards regression to test the association of CKD severity with receipt of targeted AF therapies. RESULTS: Among 115,564 patients with incident AF, 34% had baseline CKD. In multivariable models, compared with those with eGFR >60 ml/min per 1.73 m2, patients with eGFR 30-44 (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 0.91; 95% CI, 0.99 to 0.93), 15-29 (aHR, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.75 to 0.82), and <15 ml/min per 1.73 m2 (aHR, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.58-0.70) had lower use of any AF therapy. Patients with eGFR 15-29 ml/min per 1.73 m2 had lower adjusted use of rate control agents (aHR, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.56 to 0.67), warfarin (aHR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.84 to 0.94), and DOACs (aHR, 0.23; 95% CI, 0.19 to 0.27) compared with patients with eGFR >60 ml/min per 1.73 m2. These associations were even stronger for eGFR <15 ml/min per 1.73 m2. There was also a graded association between CKD severity and receipt of AF-related procedures (vs eGFR >60 ml/min per 1.73 m2): eGFR 30-44 ml/min per 1.73 (aHR, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.70 to 0.87), eGFR 15-29 ml/min per 1.73 m2 (aHR, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.61 to 0.88), and eGFR <15 ml/min per 1.73 m2 (aHR, 0.48; 95% CI, 0.31 to 0.74). CONCLUSIONS: In adults with newly diagnosed AF, CKD severity was associated with lower receipt of rate control agents, anticoagulation, and AF procedures. Additional data on efficacy and safety of AF therapies in CKD populations are needed to inform management strategies.

Association of Proximal Tubular Secretory Clearance with Long-Term Decline in Cognitive Function.

BACKGROUND: People with chronic kidney disease (CKD) are at high risk for cognitive impairment and progressive cognitive decline. Retention of protein-bound organic solutes that are normally removed by tubular secretion is hypothesized to contribute to cognitive impairment in CKD. METHODS: We followed 2362 participants who were initially free of cognitive impairment and stroke in the prospective Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) Study. We estimated tubular secretory clearance by the 24-hour kidney clearances of eight endogenous solutes that are primarily eliminated by tubular secretion. CRIC study investigators assessed participants' cognitive function annually using the Modified Mini-Mental State (3MS) Examination. Cognitive decline was defined as a sustained decrease of more than five points in the 3MS score from baseline. Using Cox regression models adjusted for potential confounders, we analyzed associations between secretory solute clearances, serum solute concentrations, and cognitive decline. RESULTS: The median number of follow-up 3MS examinations was six per participant. There were 247 incident cognitive decline events over a median of 9.1 years of follow-up. Lower kidney clearances of five of the eight secretory solutes (cinnamoylglycine, isovalerylglycine, kynurenic acid, pyridoxic acid, and tiglylglycine) were associated with cognitive decline after adjustment for baseline eGFR, proteinuria, and other confounding variables. Effect sizes ranged from a 17% to a 34% higher risk of cognitive decline per 50% lower clearance. In contrast, serum concentrations of the solutes were not associated with cognitive decline. CONCLUSIONS: Lower kidney clearances of secreted solutes are associated with incident global cognitive decline in a prospective study of CKD, independent of eGFR. Further work is needed to determine the domains of cognition most affected by decreased secretory clearance and the mechanisms of these associations.

Risk Prediction Models for Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease in Patients with Chronic Kidney Disease: The CRIC Study.

BACKGROUND: Individuals with CKD may be at high risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). However, there are no ASCVD risk prediction models developed in CKD populations to inform clinical care and prevention. METHODS: We developed and validated 10-year ASCVD risk prediction models in patients with CKD that included participants without self-reported cardiovascular disease from the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) study. ASCVD was defined as the first occurrence of adjudicated fatal and nonfatal stroke or myocardial infarction. Our models used clinically available variables and novel biomarkers. Model performance was evaluated based on discrimination, calibration, and net reclassification improvement. RESULTS: Of 2604 participants (mean age 55.8 years; 52.0% male) included in the analyses, 252 had incident ASCVD within 10 years of baseline. Compared with the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association pooled cohort equations (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC]=0.730), a model with coefficients estimated within the CRIC sample had higher discrimination (P=0.03), achieving an AUC of 0.736 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.649 to 0.826). The CRIC model developed using clinically available variables had an AUC of 0.760 (95% CI, 0.678 to 0.851). The CRIC biomarker-enriched model had an AUC of 0.771 (95% CI, 0.674 to 0.853), which was significantly higher than the clinical model (P=0.001). Both the clinical and biomarker-enriched models were well-calibrated and improved reclassification of nonevents compared with the pooled cohort equations (6.6%; 95% CI, 3.7% to 9.6% and 10.0%; 95% CI, 6.8% to 13.3%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: The 10-year ASCVD risk prediction models developed in patients with CKD, including novel kidney and cardiac biomarkers, performed better than equations developed for the general population using only traditional risk factors.

Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate, Albuminuria, and Adverse Outcomes: An Individual-Participant Data Meta-Analysis.

Importance: Chronic kidney disease (low estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] or albuminuria) affects approximately 14% of adults in the US. Objective: To evaluate associations of lower eGFR based on creatinine alone, lower eGFR based on creatinine combined with cystatin C, and more severe albuminuria with adverse kidney outcomes, cardiovascular outcomes, and other health outcomes. Design, Setting, and Participants: Individual-participant data meta-analysis of 27 503 140 individuals from 114 global cohorts (eGFR based on creatinine alone) and 720 736 individuals from 20 cohorts (eGFR based on creatinine and cystatin C) and 9 067 753 individuals from 114 cohorts (albuminuria) from 1980 to 2021. Exposures: The Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration 2021 equations for eGFR based on creatinine alone and eGFR based on creatinine and cystatin C; and albuminuria estimated as urine albumin to creatinine ratio (UACR). Main Outcomes and Measures: The risk of kidney failure requiring replacement therapy, all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, acute kidney injury, any hospitalization, coronary heart disease, stroke, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, and peripheral artery disease. The analyses were performed within each cohort and summarized with random-effects meta-analyses. Results: Within the population using eGFR based on creatinine alone (mean age, 54 years [SD, 17 years]; 51% were women; mean follow-up time, 4.8 years [SD, 3.3 years]), the mean eGFR was 90 mL/min/1.73 m2 (SD, 22 mL/min/1.73 m2) and the median UACR was 11 mg/g (IQR, 8-16 mg/g). Within the population using eGFR based on creatinine and cystatin C (mean age, 59 years [SD, 12 years]; 53% were women; mean follow-up time, 10.8 years [SD, 4.1 years]), the mean eGFR was 88 mL/min/1.73 m2 (SD, 22 mL/min/1.73 m2) and the median UACR was 9 mg/g (IQR, 6-18 mg/g). Lower eGFR (whether based on creatinine alone or based on creatinine and cystatin C) and higher UACR were each significantly associated with higher risk for each of the 10 adverse outcomes, including those in the mildest categories of chronic kidney disease. For example, among people with a UACR less than 10 mg/g, an eGFR of 45 to 59 mL/min/1.73 m2 based on creatinine alone was associated with significantly higher hospitalization rates compared with an eGFR of 90 to 104 mL/min/1.73 m2 (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.3 [95% CI, 1.2-1.3]; 161 vs 79 events per 1000 person-years; excess absolute risk, 22 events per 1000 person-years [95% CI, 19-25 events per 1000 person-years]). Conclusions and Relevance: In this retrospective analysis of 114 cohorts, lower eGFR based on creatinine alone, lower eGFR based on creatinine and cystatin C, and more severe UACR were each associated with increased rates of 10 adverse outcomes, including adverse kidney outcomes, cardiovascular diseases, and hospitalizations.

Genetic loci and prioritization of genes for kidney function decline derived from a meta-analysis of 62 longitudinal genome-wide association studies.

Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) reflects kidney function. Progressive eGFR-decline can lead to kidney failure, necessitating dialysis or transplantation. Hundreds of loci from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for eGFR help explain population cross section variability. Since the contribution of these or other loci to eGFR-decline remains largely unknown, we derived GWAS for annual eGFR-decline and meta-analyzed 62 longitudinal studies with eGFR assessed twice over time in all 343,339 individuals and in high-risk groups. We also explored different covariate adjustment. Twelve genome-wide significant independent variants for eGFR-decline unadjusted or adjusted for eGFR-baseline (11 novel, one known for this phenotype), including nine variants robustly associated across models were identified. All loci for eGFR-decline were known for cross-sectional eGFR and thus distinguished a subgroup of eGFR loci. Seven of the nine variants showed variant-by-age interaction on eGFR cross section (further about 350,000 individuals), which linked genetic associations for eGFR-decline with age-dependency of genetic cross-section associations. Clinically important were two to four-fold greater genetic effects on eGFR-decline in high-risk subgroups. Five variants associated also with chronic kidney disease progression mapped to genes with functional in-silico evidence (UMOD, SPATA7, GALNTL5, TPPP). An unfavorable versus favorable nine-variant genetic profile showed increased risk odds ratios of 1.35 for kidney failure (95% confidence intervals 1.03-1.77) and 1.27 for acute kidney injury (95% confidence intervals 1.08-1.50) in over 2000 cases each, with matched controls). Thus, we provide a large data resource, genetic loci, and prioritized genes for kidney function decline, which help inform drug development pipelines revealing important insights into the age-dependency of kidney function genetics.

Prognostic value of echocardiography for heart failure and death in adults with chronic kidney disease.

BACKGROUND: Adults with chronic kidney disease (CKD) are at increased risk of heart failure (HF) morbidity and mortality. Despite well-characterized abnormalities in cardiac structure in CKD, it remains unclear how to optimally leverage echocardiography to risk stratify CKD patients. METHODS: We evaluated associations between echocardiographic parameters and risk of HF hospitalization and death using Cox proportional hazard models and forward selection with integrated discrimination improvement (IDI). RESULTS: The study included 3,505 participants enrolled in the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) study. Mean age was 59 ± 11 years, HF prevalence was 10%, and mean left ventricular (LV) ejection fraction (LVEF) was 54 ± 9%. During median 11 (interquartile range: 8-12) years of follow-up, event rates per 100-person years for HF hospitalizations and death, respectively, were 9.4 (95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 7.9-11.3) and 8.9 (95% CI: 7.6-10.5) for participants with LVEF <40%, 3.5 (95% CI: 3.0-4.2) and 4.6 (95% CI: 4.0-5.2) for patients with LVEF 40% to 49%, and 1.9 (95% CI: 1.7-2.1) and 3.1 (95% CI: 2.9-3.3) for patients with LVEF >50%. The rate of HF hospitalizations and deaths increased with lower eGFR across all LVEF categories. LV mass index, LVEF, and LV geometry had the strongest association with outcomes but provided modest incremental prognostic value to a baseline clinical model (IDI = 0.14 and ΔAUC = 0.017 for HF hospitalization, IDI = 0.12 and ΔAUC = 0.008 for death). CONCLUSIONS: Baseline echocardiographic parameters are independently associated with increased risk of subsequent HF morbidity and mortality but provide only marginal incremental prognostic utility beyond clinical characteristics in the setting of CKD.

Heart failure-type symptom scores in chronic kidney disease: The importance of body mass index.

OBJECTIVES: This analysis sought to determine factors (including adiposity-related factors) most associated with HF-type symptoms (fatigue, shortness of breath, and edema) in adults with chronic kidney disease (CKD). BACKGROUND: Symptom burden impairs quality of life in CKD, especially symptoms that overlap with HF. These symptoms are common regardless of clinical HF diagnosis, and may be affected by subtle cardiac dysfunction, kidney dysfunction, and other factors. We used machine learning to investigate cross-sectional relationships of clinical variables with symptom scores in a CKD cohort. METHODS: Participants in the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) with a baseline modified Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire (KCCQ) score were included, regardless of prior HF diagnosis. The primary outcome was Overall Summary Score as a continuous measure. Predictors were 99 clinical variables representing demographic, cardiac, kidney and other health dimensions. A correlation filter was applied. Random forest regression models were fitted. Variable importance scores and adjusted predicted outcomes are presented. RESULTS: The cohort included 3426 individuals, 10.3% with prior HF diagnosis. BMI was the most important factor, with BMI 24.3 kg/m2 associated with the least symptoms. Symptoms worsened with higher or lower BMIs, with a potentially clinically relevant 5 point score decline at 35.7 kg/m2 and a 1-point decline at the threshold for low BMI, 18.5 kg/m2. The most important cardiac and kidney factors were heart rate and eGFR, the 4th and 5th most important variables, respectively. Results were similar for secondary analyses. CONCLUSIONS: In a CKD cohort, BMI was the most important feature for explaining HF-type symptoms regardless of clinical HF diagnosis, identifying an important focus for symptom directed investigations.

Applications of cardiac biomarkers in chronic kidney disease.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death in individuals with chronic kidney disease (CKD). The mechanisms connecting CKD and cardiovascular disease are complex, and serum biomarkers can help improve our understanding. Nt-proBNP and troponin have documented success as biomarkers to diagnose and provide mechanistic insights in non-CKD populations. The purpose of this review is to summarize evidence suggesting efficacy and potential for clinical application of Nt-proBNP and troponin in individuals with CKD. RECENT FINDINGS: Our understanding of how Nt-proBNP and Troponin should be interpreted in those with CKD is evolving. Although both biomarkers are in part cleared by the kidney, elevated levels predominantly reflect cardiovascular disease. Both Nt-proBNP and troponin are associated with risk for future cardiovascular events in CKD. Determining CKD-specific cutoffs and using biomarkers to guide therapy remains under active investigation. SUMMARY: Of the many serum biomarkers under investigation, Nt-proBNP and troponin best meet the criteria for effective biomarkers in CKD. Assays are widely available and proven to be accurate in CKD populations. Nt-proBNP and troponin deserve special focus in ongoing research of cardiovascular risk reduction in CKD, especially to identify patients at the highest risk, suggest targetable mechanisms and assess treatment efficacy.

Association of Intra-individual Differences in Estimated GFR by Creatinine Versus Cystatin C With Incident Heart Failure.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: Lower estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) is associated with heart failure (HF) risk. However, eGFR based on cystatin C (eGFRcys) and creatinine (eGFRcr) may differ substantially within an individual. The clinical implications of these differences for risk of HF among persons with chronic kidney disease (CKD) are unknown. STUDY DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: 4,512 adults with CKD and without prevalent HF who enrolled in the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) Study. EXPOSURE: Difference in GFR estimates (eGFRdiff; ie, eGFRcys minus eGFRcr). OUTCOME: Incident HF hospitalization. ANALYTICAL APPROACH: Fine-Gray proportional subhazards regression was used to investigate the associations of baseline, time-updated, and slope of eGFRdiff with incident HF. RESULTS: Of 4,512 participants, one-third had eGFRcys and eGFRcr values that differed by over 15 mL/min/1.73 m2. In multivariable-adjusted models, each 15 mL/min/1.73 m2 lower baseline eGFRdiff was associated with higher risk of incident HF hospitalization (hazard ratio [HR], 1.20 [95% CI, 1.07-1.34]). In time-updated analyses, those with eGFRdiff less than -15 mL/min/1.73 m2 had higher risk of incident HF hospitalization (HR, 1.99 [95% CI, 1.39-2.86]), and those with eGFRdiff ≥15 mL/min/1.73 m2 had lower risk of incident HF hospitalization (HR, 0.67 [95% CI, 0.49-0.91]) compared with participants with similar eGFRcys and eGFRcr. Participants with faster declines in eGFRcys relative to eGFRcr had higher risk of incident HF (HR, 1.49 [95% CI, 1.19-1.85]) compared with those in whom eGFRcys and eGFRcr declined in parallel. LIMITATIONS: Entry into the CRIC Study was determined by eGFRcr, which constrained the range of baseline eGFRcr-but not eGFRcys-values. CONCLUSIONS: Among persons with CKD who have large differences between eGFRcys and eGFRcr, risk for incident HF is more strongly associated with eGFRcys. Diverging slopes between eGFRcys and eGFRcr over time are also independently associated with risk of incident HF.

Upper Reference Limits for High-Sensitivity Cardiac Troponin T and N-Terminal Fragment of the Prohormone Brain Natriuretic Peptide in Patients With CKD.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: The utility of conventional upper reference limits (URL) for N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hsTnT) in chronic kidney disease (CKD) remains debated. We analyzed the distribution of hsTnT and NT-proBNP in people with CKD in ambulatory settings to examine the diagnostic value of conventional URL in this population. STUDY DESIGN: Observational study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: We studied participants of the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) with CKD and no self-reported history of cardiovascular disease. EXPOSURE: Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). OUTCOME: NT-proBNP and hsTnT at baseline. ANALYTICAL APPROACH: We described the proportion of participants above the conventional URL for NT-proBNP (125pg/mL) and hsTnT (14ng/L) overall and by eGFR. We then estimated 99th percentile URL for NT-proBNP and hsTnT. Using quantile regression of the 99th percentile, we modeled the association of eGFR with NT-proBNP and hsTnT. RESULTS: Among 2,312 CKD participants, 40% and 43% had levels of NT-proBNP and hsTnT above the conventional URL, respectively. In those with eGFR <30mL/min/1.73m2, 71% and 68% of participants had concentrations of NT-proBNP and hsTnT above the conventional URL, respectively. Among all CKD participants, the 99th percentile for NT-proBNP was 3,592 (95% CI, 2,470-4,849) pg/mL and for hsTnT it was 126 (95% CI, 100-144) ng/L. Each 15mL/min/1.73m2 decrement in eGFR was associated with a ~40% higher threshold for the 99th percentile of NT-proBNP (1.43 [95% CI, 1.21-1.69]) and hsTnT (1.45 [95% CI, 1.31-1.60]). LIMITATIONS: Study included ambulatory patients, and we could not test the accuracy of the URL of NT-proBNP and hsTnT in the acute care setting. CONCLUSIONS: In this ambulatory CKD population with no self-reported history of cardiovascular disease, a range of 40%-88% of participants had concentrations of NT-proBNP and hsTnT above the conventional URL, depending on eGFR strata. Developing eGFR-specific thresholds for these commonly used cardiac biomarkers in the setting of CKD may improve their utility for evaluation of suspected heart failure and myocardial infarction.

Time-Updated Changes in Estimated GFR and Proteinuria and Major Adverse Cardiac Events: Findings from the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) Study.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: Evaluating repeated measures of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and urinary protein-creatinine ratio (UPCR) over time may enhance our ability to understand the association between changes in kidney parameters and cardiovascular disease risk. STUDY DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: Annual visit data from 2,438 participants in the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC). EXPOSURES: Average and slope of eGFR and UPCR in time-updated, 1-year exposure windows. OUTCOMES: Incident heart failure, atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease events, death, and a composite of incident heart failure, atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease events, and death. ANALYTICAL APPROACH: A landmark analysis, a dynamic approach to survival modeling that leverages longitudinal, iterative profiles of laboratory and clinical information to assess the time-updated 3-year risk of adverse cardiovascular outcomes. RESULTS: Adjusting for baseline and time-updated covariates, every standard deviation lower mean eGFR (19mL/min/1.73m2) and declining slope of eGFR (8mL/min/1.73m2 per year) were independently associated with higher risks of heart failure (hazard ratios [HRs] of 1.82 [95% CI, 1.39-2.44] and 1.28 [95% CI, 1.12-1.45], respectively) and the composite outcome (HRs of 1.32 [95% CI, 1.11-1.54] and 1.11 [95% CI, 1.03-1.20], respectively). Every standard deviation higher mean UPCR (136mg/g) and increasing UPCR (240mg/g per year) were also independently associated with higher risks of heart failure (HRs of 1.58 [95% CI, 1.28-1.97] and 1.20 [95% CI, 1.10-1.29], respectively) and the composite outcome (HRs of 1.33 [95% CI, 1.17-1.50] and 1.12 [95% CI, 1.06-1.18], respectively). LIMITATIONS: Limited generalizability of annual eGFR and UPCR assessments; several biomarkers for cardiovascular disease risk were not available annually. CONCLUSIONS: Using the landmark approach to account for time-updated patterns of kidney function, average and slope of eGFR and proteinuria were independently associated with 3-year cardiovascular risk. Short-term changes in kidney function provide information about cardiovascular risk incremental to level of kidney function, representing possible opportunities for more effective management of patients with chronic kidney disease.

Ten-Year Risk-Prediction Equations for Incident Heart Failure Hospitalizations in Chronic Kidney Disease: Findings from the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort Study and the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Heart failure (HF) is a leading contributor to cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in the population with chronic kidney disease (CKD). HF risk prediction tools that use readily available clinical parameters to risk-stratify individuals with CKD are needed. METHODS: We included Black and White participants aged 30-79 years with CKD stages 2-4 who were enrolled in the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) study and were without self-reported cardiovascular disease. We assessed model performance of the Pooled Cohort Equations to Prevent Heart Failure (PCP-HF) to predict incident hospitalizations due to HF and refit the PCP-HF in the population with CKD by using CRIC data-derived coefficients and survival from CRIC study participants in the CKD population (PCP-HFCKD). We investigated the improvement in HF prediction with inclusion of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR) into the PCP-HFCKD equations by change in C-statistic, net reclassification improvement (NRI), and integrated discrimination improvement index (IDI). We validated the PCP-HFCKD with and without eGFR and UACR in Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) participants with CKD. RESULTS: Among 2328 CRIC Study participants, 340 incident HF hospitalizations occurred over a mean follow-up of 9.5 years. The PCP-HF equations did not perform well in most participants with CKD and had inadequate discrimination and insufficient calibration (C-statistic 0.64-0.71, Greenwood-Nam-D'Agostino (GND) chi-square statistic P value < 0.05), with modest improvement and good calibration after being refit (PCP-HFCKD: C-statistic 0.61-0.78), GND chi-square statistic P value > 0.05). Addition of UACR, but not eGFR, to the refit PCP-HFCKD improved model performance in all race-sex groups (C-statistic [0.73-0.81], GND chi-square statistic P value > 0.05, delta C-statistic ranging from 0.03-0.11 and NRI and IDI P values < 0.01). External validation of the PCP-HFCKD in MESA demonstrated good discrimination and calibration. CONCLUSIONS: Routinely available clinical data that include UACR in patients with CKD can reliably identify individuals at risk of HF hospitalizations.

Proteomics and Population Biology in the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS): design of a study with mentored access and active data sharing.

BACKGROUND: In the last decade, genomic studies have identified and replicated thousands of genetic associations with measures of health and disease and contributed to the understanding of the etiology of a variety of health conditions. Proteins are key biomarkers in clinical medicine and often drug-therapy targets. Like genomics, proteomics can advance our understanding of biology. METHODS AND RESULTS: In the setting of the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS), a cohort study of older adults, an aptamer-based method that has high sensitivity for low-abundance proteins was used to assay 4979 proteins in frozen, stored plasma from 3188 participants (61% women, mean age 74 years). CHS provides active support, including central analysis, for seven phenotype-specific working groups (WGs). Each CHS WG is led by one or two senior investigators and includes 10 to 20 early or mid-career scientists. In this setting of mentored access, the proteomic data and analytic methods are widely shared with the WGs and investigators so that they may evaluate associations between baseline levels of circulating proteins and the incidence of a variety of health outcomes in prospective cohort analyses. We describe the design of CHS, the CHS Proteomics Study, characteristics of participants, quality control measures, and structural characteristics of the data provided to CHS WGs. We additionally highlight plans for validation and replication of novel proteomic associations. CONCLUSION: The CHS Proteomics Study offers an opportunity for collaborative data sharing to improve our understanding of the etiology of a variety of health conditions in older adults.

BP in Young Adults with CKD and Associations with Cardiovascular Events and Decline in Kidney Function.

BACKGROUND: BP is an important modifiable risk factor for cardiovascular events and CKD progression in middle-aged or older adults with CKD. However, studies describing the relationship between BP with outcomes in young adults with CKD are limited. METHODS: In an observational study, we focused on 317 young adults (aged 21-40 years) with mild to moderate CKD enrolled in the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) Study. Exposures included baseline systolic BP evaluated continuously (per 10 mm Hg increase) and in categories (<120, 120-129, and ≥130 mm Hg). Primary outcomes included cardiovascular events (heart failure, myocardial infarction, stroke, or all-cause death) and CKD progression (50% decline of eGFR or ESKD). We used Cox proportional hazard models to test associations between baseline systolic BP with cardiovascular events and CKD progression. RESULTS: Cardiovascular events occurred in 52 participants and 161 had CKD progression during median follow-up times of 11.3 years and 4.1 years, respectively. Among those with baseline systolic BP ≥130 mm Hg, 3%/yr developed heart failure, 20%/yr had CKD progression, and 2%/yr died. In fully adjusted models, baseline systolic BP ≥130 mm Hg (versus systolic BP<120 mm Hg) was significantly associated with cardiovascular events or death (hazard ratio [HR], 2.13; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.05 to 4.32) and CKD progression (HR, 1.68; 95% CI, 1.10 to 2.58). CONCLUSIONS: Among young adults with CKD, higher systolic BP is significantly associated with a greater risk of cardiovascular events and CKD progression. Trials of BP management are needed to test targets and treatment strategies specifically in young adults with CKD.