Data-driven scalable pipeline using national agent-based models for real-time pandemic response and decision support.

This paper describes an integrated, data-driven operational pipeline based on national agent-based models to support federal and state-level pandemic planning and response. The pipeline consists of (i) an automatic semantic-aware scheduling method that coordinates jobs across two separate high performance computing systems; (ii) a data pipeline to collect, integrate and organize national and county-level disaggregated data for initialization and post-simulation analysis; (iii) a digital twin of national social contact networks made up of 288 Million individuals and 12.6 Billion time-varying interactions covering the US states and DC; (iv) an extension of a parallel agent-based simulation model to study epidemic dynamics and associated interventions. This pipeline can run 400 replicates of national runs in less than 33 h, and reduces the need for human intervention, resulting in faster turnaround times and higher reliability and accuracy of the results. Scientifically, the work has led to significant advances in real-time epidemic sciences.

An agent-based framework to study forced migration: A case study of Ukraine.

The ongoing Russian aggression against Ukraine has forced over eight million people to migrate out of Ukraine. Understanding the dynamics of forced migration is essential for policy-making and for delivering humanitarian assistance. Existing work is hindered by a reliance on observational data which is only available well after the fact. In this work, we study the efficacy of a data-driven agent-based framework motivated by social and behavioral theory in predicting outflow of migrants as a result of conflict events during the initial phase of the Ukraine war. We discuss policy use cases for the proposed framework by demonstrating how it can leverage refugee demographic details to answer pressing policy questions. We also show how to incorporate conflict forecast scenarios to predict future conflict-induced migration flows. Detailed future migration estimates across various conflict scenarios can both help to reduce policymaker uncertainty and improve allocation and staging of limited humanitarian resources in crisis settings.

A synthetic population of Sweden: datasets of agents, households, and activity-travel patterns.

A synthetic population is a simplified microscopic representation of an actual population. Statistically representative at the population level, it provides valuable inputs to simulation models (especially agent-based models) in research areas such as transportation, land use, economics, and epidemiology. This article describes the datasets from the Synthetic Sweden Mobility (SySMo) model using the state-of-art methodology, including machine learning (ML), iterative proportional fitting (IPF), and probabilistic sampling. The model provides a synthetic replica of over 10 million Swedish individuals (i.e., agents), their household characteristics, and activity-travel plans. This paper briefly explains the methodology for the three datasets: Person, Households, and Activity-travel patterns. Each agent contains socio-demographic attributes, such as age, gender, civil status, residential zone, personal income, car ownership, employment, etc. Each agent also has a household and corresponding attributes such as household size, number of children ≤ 6 years old, etc. These characteristics are the basis for the agents' daily activity-travel schedule, including type of activity, start-end time, duration, sequence, the location of each activity, and the travel mode between activities.

Heterogeneous adaptive behavioral responses may increase epidemic burden.

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) constitute the front-line responses against epidemics. Yet, the interdependence of control measures and individual microeconomics, beliefs, perceptions and health incentives, is not well understood. Epidemics constitute complex adaptive systems where individual behavioral decisions drive and are driven by, among other things, the risk of infection. To study the impact of heterogeneous behavioral responses on the epidemic burden, we formulate a two risk-groups mathematical model that incorporates individual behavioral decisions driven by risk perceptions. Our results show a trade-off between the efforts to avoid infection by the risk-evader population, and the proportion of risk-taker individuals with relaxed infection risk perceptions. We show that, in a structured population, privately computed optimal behavioral responses may lead to an increase in the final size of the epidemic, when compared to the homogeneous behavior scenario. Moreover, we find that uncertain information on the individuals' true health state may lead to worse epidemic outcomes, ultimately depending on the population's risk-group composition. Finally, we find there is a set of specific optimal planning horizons minimizing the final epidemic size, which depend on the population structure.

The energy-spectrum of bicompatible sequences.

BACKGROUND: Genotype-phenotype maps provide a meaningful filtration of sequence space and RNA secondary structures are particular such phenotypes. Compatible sequences, which satisfy the base-pairing constraints of a given RNA structure, play an important role in the context of neutral evolution. Sequences that are simultaneously compatible with two given structures (bicompatible sequences), are beacons in phenotypic transitions, induced by erroneously replicating populations of RNA sequences. RNA riboswitches, which are capable of expressing two distinct secondary structures without changing the underlying sequence, are one example of bicompatible sequences in living organisms. RESULTS: We present a full loop energy model Boltzmann sampler of bicompatible sequences for pairs of structures. The sequence sampler employs a dynamic programming routine whose time complexity is polynomial when assuming the maximum number of exposed vertices, [Formula: see text], is a constant. The parameter [Formula: see text] depends on the two structures and can be very large. We introduce a novel topological framework encapsulating the relations between loops that sheds light on the understanding of [Formula: see text]. Based on this framework, we give an algorithm to sample sequences with minimum [Formula: see text] on a particular topologically classified case as well as giving hints to the solution in the other cases. As a result, we utilize our sequence sampler to study some established riboswitches. CONCLUSION: Our analysis of riboswitch sequences shows that a pair of structures needs to satisfy key properties in order to facilitate phenotypic transitions and that pairs of random structures are unlikely to do so. Our analysis observes a distinct signature of riboswitch sequences, suggesting a new criterion for identifying native sequences and sequences subjected to evolutionary pressure. Our free software is available at: https://github.com/FenixHuang667/Bifold .

Scalable Epidemiological Workflows to Support COVID-19 Planning and Response.

The COVID-19 global outbreak represents the most significant epidemic event since the 1918 influenza pandemic. Simulations have played a crucial role in supporting COVID-19 planning and response efforts. Developing scalable workflows to provide policymakers quick responses to important questions pertaining to logistics, resource allocation, epidemic forecasts and intervention analysis remains a challenging computational problem. In this work, we present scalable high performance computing-enabled workflows for COVID-19 pandemic planning and response. The scalability of our methodology allows us to run fine-grained simulations daily, and to generate county-level forecasts and other counter-factual analysis for each of the 50 states (and DC), 3140 counties across the USA. Our workflows use a hybrid cloud/cluster system utilizing a combination of local and remote cluster computing facilities, and using over 20,000 CPU cores running for 6-9 hours every day to meet this objective. Our state (Virginia), state hospital network, our university, the DOD and the CDC use our models to guide their COVID-19 planning and response efforts. We began executing these pipelines March 25, 2020, and have delivered and briefed weekly updates to these stakeholders for over 30 weeks without interruption.

Forecasting influenza activity using machine-learned mobility map.

Human mobility is a primary driver of infectious disease spread. However, existing data is limited in availability, coverage, granularity, and timeliness. Data-driven forecasts of disease dynamics are crucial for decision-making by health officials and private citizens alike. In this work, we focus on a machine-learned anonymized mobility map (hereon referred to as AMM) aggregated over hundreds of millions of smartphones and evaluate its utility in forecasting epidemics. We factor AMM into a metapopulation model to retrospectively forecast influenza in the USA and Australia. We show that the AMM model performs on-par with those based on commuter surveys, which are sparsely available and expensive. We also compare it with gravity and radiation based models of mobility, and find that the radiation model's performance is quite similar to AMM and commuter flows. Additionally, we demonstrate our model's ability to predict disease spread even across state boundaries. Our work contributes towards developing timely infectious disease forecasting at a global scale using human mobility datasets expanding their applications in the area of infectious disease epidemiology.

RNA Secondary Structures Having a Compatible Sequence of Certain Nucleotide Ratios.

Given a random RNA secondary structure, S, we study RNA sequences having fixed ratios of nucleotides that are compatible with S. We perform this analysis for RNA secondary structures subject to various base-pairing rules and minimum arc- and stack-length restrictions. Our main result reads as follows: in the simplex of nucleotide ratios, there exists a convex region, in which, in the limit of long sequences, a random structure asymptotically almost surely (a.a.s.) has compatible sequence with these ratios and outside of which a.a.s. a random structure has no such compatible sequence. We localize this region for RNA secondary structures subject to various base-pairing rules and minimum arc- and stack-length restrictions. In particular, for GC-sequences (GC denoting the nucleotides guanine and cytosine, respectively) having a ratio of G nucleotides smaller than 1/3, a random RNA secondary structure without any minimum arc- and stack-length restrictions has a.a.s. no such compatible sequence. For sequences having a ratio of G nucleotides larger than 1/3, a random RNA secondary structure has a.a.s. such compatible sequences. We discuss our results in the context of various families of RNA structures.

From biological and social network metaphors to coupled bio-social wireless networks.

Biological and social analogies have been long applied to complex systems. Inspiration has been drawn from biological solutions to solve problems in engineering products and systems, ranging from Velcro to camouflage to robotics to adaptive and learning computing methods. In this paper, we present an overview of recent advances in understanding biological systems as networks and use this understanding to design and analyse wireless communication networks. We expand on two applications, namely cognitive sensing and control and wireless epidemiology. We discuss how our work in these two applications is motivated by biological metaphors. We believe that recent advances in computing and communications coupled with advances in health and social sciences raise the possibility of studying coupled bio-social communication networks. We argue that we can better utilise the advances in our understanding of one class of networks to better our understanding of the other.

Information Integration to Support Model-Based Policy Informatics.

The complexities of social and technological policy domains, such as the economy, the environment, and public health present challenges that require a new approach to modeling and decision making. The information required for effective policy and decision making in these complex domains is massive in scale, fine-grained in resolution, and distributed over many data sources. Thus, one of the key challenges in building systems to support policy informatics is information integration. We describe our approach to this problem, and how we are building a multi-theory, multi-actor, multi-perspective system that supports continual data uptake, state assessment, decision analysis, and action assignment based on large-scale high-performance computing infrastructures. Our simulation-based approach allows rapid course-of-action analysis to bound variances in outcomes of policy interventions, which in turn allows the short time-scale planning required in response to emergencies such as epidemic outbreaks. We present the rationale and design of our methodology and discuss several areas of actual and potential application.