Lack of Association Between a Quantified Lung Ultrasound Score and Illness Severity in Pediatric Emergency Department Patients With Acute Lower Respiratory Infections.

OBJECTIVES: Lung ultrasound (LUS) may help determine illness severity in children with acute lower respiratory tract infections (LRTI) but limited pediatric studies exist. Our objective was to determine the association between LUS findings and illness severity in children with LRTI. METHODS: We conducted a prospective study of patients <20 years with LRTI. Trained investigators performed standardized LUS examinations of 12 regions. Blinded sonologists reviewed examinations for individual pathologic features and also calculated a Quantified Lung Ultrasound Score (QLUS). We defined focal severity as QLUS of ≥2 in ≥1 region, and diffuse severity as QLUS of ≥1 in ≥3 regions. The primary outcome was the Respiratory component of the Pediatric Early Warning Score (RPEWS), a 14-item scale measuring respiratory illness severity. Secondary outcomes included hospital admission, length of stay, supplemental oxygen, and antibiotic use. RESULTS: We enrolled 85 patients with LRTIs, 46 (54%) whom were hospitalized (5.4% intensive care). Median RPEWS was 1 (interquartile range 2). Neither individual features on ultrasound nor total QLUS were associated with RPEWS, hospitalization, length of stay, or oxygen use. Mean RPEWS was similar for participants regardless of focal (1.46 versus 1.26, P = .57) or diffuse (1.47 versus 1.21, P = .47) severity findings, but those with focal or diffuse severity, or isolated consolidation, had greater antibiotic administration (P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: In children with LRTI, neither individual features nor QLUS were associated with illness severity. Antibiotics were more likely in patients with either focal or diffuse severity or presence of consolidation on ultrasound.

Estimating enhanced prevaccination measles transmission hotspots in the context of cross-scale dynamics.

A key question in clarifying human-environment interactions is how dynamic complexity develops across integrative scales from molecular to population and global levels. Apart from its public health importance, measles is an excellent test bed for such an analysis. Simple mechanistic models have successfully illuminated measles dynamics at the city and country levels, revealing seasonal forcing of transmission as a major driver of long-term epidemic behavior. Seasonal forcing ties closely to patterns of school aggregation at the individual and community levels, but there are few explicit estimates of school transmission due to the relative lack of epidemic data at this scale. Here, we use data from a 1904 measles outbreak in schools in Woolwich, London, coupled with a stochastic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model to analyze measles incidence data. Our results indicate that transmission within schools and age classes is higher than previous population-level serological data would suggest. This analysis sheds quantitative light on the role of school-aged children in measles cross-scale dynamics, as we illustrate with references to the contemporary vaccination landscape.

Asymptomatic Summertime Shedding of Respiratory Viruses.

To determine rates of both symptomatic and asymptomatic infection among ambulatory adults, we collected nasopharyngeal swab specimens, demographic characteristics, and survey information from 1477 adult visitors to a New York City tourist attraction during April-July 2016. Multiplex polymerase chain reaction analysis was used to identify specimens positive for common respiratory viruses. A total of 7.2% of samples tested positive for respiratory viruses; among positive samples, 71.0% contained rhinovirus, and 21.5% contained coronavirus. Influenza virus, respiratory syncytial virus, and parainfluenza virus were also detected. Depending on symptomatologic definition, 57.7%-93.3% of positive samples were asymptomatic. These findings indicate that significant levels of asymptomatic respiratory viral shedding exist during summer among the ambulatory adult population.

Modeling the impact of interventions along the HIV continuum of care in Newark, New Jersey.

BACKGROUND: The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic in Newark, New Jersey, is among the most severe in the United States. Prevalence ranges up to 3.3% in some groups. The aim of this study is to use a mathematical model of the epidemic in Newark to assess the impact of interventions along the continuum of care, leading to virologic suppression. METHODS: A model was constructed of HIV infection including specific care-continuum steps. The model was calibrated to HIV/AIDS cases in Newark among different populations over a 10-year period. Interventions applied to model fits were increasing proportions tested, linked and retained in care, linked and adherent to treatment, and increasing testing frequency, high-risk-group testing, and adherence. Impacts were assessed by measuring incidence and death reductions 10 years postintervention. RESULTS: The most effective interventions for reducing incidence were improving treatment adherence and increasing testing frequency and coverage. No single intervention reduced incidence in 2023 by >5%, and the most effective combination of interventions reduced incidence by approximately 16% (2%-24%). The most efficacious interventions for reducing deaths were increasing retention, linkage to care, testing coverage, and adherence. Increasing retention reduced deaths by approximately 27% (24%-29%); the most efficacious combination of interventions reduced deaths in 2023 by approximately 52% (46%-57%). CONCLUSIONS: Reducing HIV deaths in Newark over a 10-year period may be a realizable goal, but reducing incidence is less likely. Our results highlight the importance of addressing leaks across the entire continuum of care and reinforcing efforts to prevention new HIV infections with additional interventions.

The path of least resistance: aggressive or moderate treatment?

The evolution of resistance to antimicrobial chemotherapy is a major and growing cause of human mortality and morbidity. Comparatively little attention has been paid to how different patient treatment strategies shape the evolution of resistance. In particular, it is not clear whether treating individual patients aggressively with high drug dosages and long treatment durations, or moderately with low dosages and short durations can better prevent the evolution and spread of drug resistance. Here, we summarize the very limited available empirical evidence across different pathogens and provide a conceptual framework describing the information required to effectively manage drug pressure to minimize resistance evolution.

Factors Influencing COVID-19 Risk: Insights From Molnupiravir Exposure-Response Modeling of Clinical Outcomes.

Molnupiravir (MOV) is an oral antiviral for the treatment of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in outpatient settings. This analysis investigated the relationship between ß-D-N4-hydroxycytidine (NHC) pharmacokinetics and clinical outcomes in patients with mild to moderate COVID-19 in the phase III part of the randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled MOVe-OUT trial. Logistic regression models of the dependency of outcomes on exposures and covariates were constructed using a multistep process. Influential covariates were identified first using placebo arm data, followed by assessment of exposure-dependency in drug effect using data from both the placebo and MOV arms. The exposure-response (E-R) analysis included 1,313 participants; 630 received MOV and 683 received placebo. Baseline viral load, baseline disease severity, age, weight, viral clade, active cancer, and diabetes were identified as significant determinants of response using placebo data. Absolute measures of viral load on days 5 and 10 were strong on-treatment predictors of hospitalization. An additive area under the curve (AUC)-based maximum effect (Emax ) model with a fixed Hill coefficient of 1 best represented the exposure-dependency in drug effect and the AUC50 was estimated to be 19,900 nM hour. Patients at 800 mg achieved near maximal response, which was larger than for 200 or 400 mg. The final E-R model was externally validated and predicted that the relative reduction in hospitalization with MOV treatment would vary with patient characteristics and factors in the population. In conclusion, the E-R results support the MOV dose of 800 mg twice daily to treat COVID-19. Many patient characteristics and factors impacted outcomes beyond drug exposures.

Population pharmacokinetics of molnupiravir in adults with COVID-19: Lack of clinically important exposure variation across individuals.

Effective antiviral treatments for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are needed to reduce the morbidity and mortality associated with severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, particularly in patients with risk factors for severe disease. Molnupiravir (MK-4482, EIDD-2801) is an orally administered, ribonucleoside prodrug of ß-D-N4-hydroxycytidine (NHC) with submicromolar potency against SARS-CoV-2. A population pharmacokinetic (PopPK) analysis for molnupiravir exposure was conducted using 4202 NHC plasma concentrations collected in 1207 individuals from a phase I trial in healthy participants, a phase IIa trial in non-hospitalized participants with COVID-19, a phase II trial in hospitalized participants with COVID-19, and a phase II/III trial in non-hospitalized participants with COVID-19. Molnupiravir pharmacokinetics (PK) was best described by a two-compartment model with a transit-compartment absorption model and linear elimination. Molnupiravir apparent elimination clearance increased with body weight less-than-proportionally (power 0.412) and was estimated as 70.6 L/h in 80-kg individuals with a moderate interindividual variability (43.4% coefficient of variation). Additionally, effects of sex and body mass index on apparent central volume and food status and formulation on the absorption mean transit time were identified as statistically significant descriptors of variability in these PK parameters. However, none of the identified covariate effects caused clinically relevant changes in the area under the NHC concentration versus time curve between doses, the exposure metric most closely related to clinical response. Overall, the PopPK model indicates that molnupiravir can be administered in adults without dose adjustment based on age, sex, body size, food, and mild-to-moderate renal or mild hepatic impairment.

Estimating the effect of vaccination on antimicrobial-resistant typhoid fever in 73 countries supported by Gavi: a mathematical modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Multidrug resistance and fluoroquinolone non-susceptibility (FQNS) are major concerns for the epidemiology and treatment of typhoid fever. The 2018 prequalification of the first typhoid conjugate vaccine (TCV) by WHO provides an opportunity to limit the transmission and burden of antimicrobial-resistant typhoid fever. METHODS: We combined output from mathematical models of typhoid transmission with estimates of antimicrobial resistance from meta-analyses to predict the burden of antimicrobial-resistant typhoid fever across 73 lower-income countries eligible for support from Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. We considered FQNS and multidrug resistance separately. The effect of vaccination was predicted on the basis of forecasts of vaccine coverage. We explored how the potential effect of vaccination on the prevalence of antimicrobial resistance varied depending on key model parameters. FINDINGS: The introduction of routine immunisation with TCV at age 9 months with a catch-up campaign up to age 15 years was predicted to avert 46-74% of all typhoid fever cases in 73 countries eligible for Gavi support. Vaccination was predicted to reduce the relative prevalence of antimicrobial-resistant typhoid fever by 16% (95% prediction interval [PI] 0-49). TCV introduction with a catch-up campaign was predicted to avert 42·5 million (95% PI 24·8-62·8 million) cases and 506 000 (95% PI 187 000-1·9 million) deaths caused by FQNS typhoid fever, and 21·2 million (95% PI 16·4-26·5 million) cases and 342 000 (95% PI 135 000-1·5 million) deaths from multidrug-resistant typhoid fever over 10 years following introduction. INTERPRETATION: Our results indicate the benefits of prioritising TCV introduction for countries with a high avertable burden of antimicrobial-resistant typhoid fever. FUNDING: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Identification of patients with neuropathic pain using electronic primary care records.

BACKGROUND: Chronic neuropathic pain is a common condition which is challenging to treat. Many people with neuropathic pain are managed in the community, so primary care records may allow more appropriate subjects to be recruited for clinical studies. OBJECTIVE: We investigated whether primary care records can be used to identify patients with diseases associated with neuropathic pain. METHOD: We analysed demographic, diagnostic and prescribing data from over 100 000 primary care electronic patient records in one part of London, UK. RESULTS: The prevalence of diagnoses associated with chronic neuropathic pain was 13 per 1000, with the elderly, women and white patients experiencing the greatest burden of disease. CONCLUSION: Computerised health records offer an excellent opportunity to improve the identification of patients for clinical research in complex conditions like chronic neuropathic pain. To make full use of data from these records, standardisation of clinical coding and consensus on diagnostic criteria are needed.

Increasing skin infections and Staphylococcus aureus complications in children, England, 1997-2006.

During 1997-2006, general practitioner consultations for skin conditions for children <18 years of age in England increased 19%, from 128.5 to 152.9/1,000 child-years, and antistaphylococcal drug prescription rates increased 64%, from 17.8 to 29.1/1,000 child-years. During the same time period, hospital admissions for Staphylococcus aureus infections rose 49% from 53.4 to 79.3/100,000 child-years.

Ethnic disparities in diabetes management: a 10-year population-based repeated cross-sectional study in UK primary care.

BACKGROUND: There has been little research on the impact of quality improvement initiatives on ethnic disparities in diabetes management in the UK. METHODS: Population-based, repeated cross-sectional survey of recorded measurements, prescribing and achievement of treatment targets among 4309 patients with diabetes mellitus using electronic medical records from 26 general practices in North-West London from 1997 to 2006. RESULTS: Proportions of patients having their blood pressure (BP), cholesterol and HbA1c measured and recorded increased over the study period [from 50.6% to 87.0% (P < 0.0001), 17.0% to 76.7% (P < 0.0001) and 32.9% to 74.1% (P < 0.0001), respectively]. However, some ethnic differences remained. Black patients with diabetes were less likely to achieve target BP (<140/80 mmHg) than the white group [2006 age-sex adjusted odds ratio (AOR), 0.65; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.51-0.83]. South Asians were found to have better lipid target control (2006 AOR, 1.57; CI, 1.23-2.00), were more likely to receive oral hypoglycaemic agents (2006 AOR, 2.27; CI, 1.79-2.86) but less likely to receive insulin (2006 AOR, 0.54; CI, 0.42-0.69) than the white group. CONCLUSIONS: Although ethnic disparities persist in diabetes management in this study population, these are starting to be addressed, particularly in the South Asian group. All ethnic groups have benefited from recent quality initiatives in the UK.

Active surveillance documents rates of clinical care seeking due to respiratory illness.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory viral infections are a leading cause of disease worldwide. However, the overall community prevalence of infections has not been properly assessed, as standard surveillance is typically acquired passively among individuals seeking clinical care. METHODS: We conducted a prospective cohort study in which participants provided daily diaries and weekly nasopharyngeal specimens that were tested for respiratory viruses. These data were used to analyze healthcare seeking behavior, compared with cross-sectional ED data and NYC surveillance reports, and used to evaluate biases of medically attended ILI as signal for population respiratory disease and infection. RESULTS: The likelihood of seeking medical attention was virus-dependent: higher for influenza and metapneumovirus (19%-20%), lower for coronavirus and RSV (4%), and 71% of individuals with self-reported ILI did not seek care and half of medically attended symptomatic manifestations did not meet the criteria for ILI. Only 5% of cohort respiratory virus infections and 21% of influenza infections were medically attended and classifiable as ILI. We estimated 1 ILI event per person/year but multiple respiratory infections per year. CONCLUSION: Standard, healthcare-based respiratory surveillance has multiple limitations. Specifically, ILI is an incomplete metric for quantifying respiratory disease, viral respiratory infection, and influenza infection. The prevalence of respiratory viruses, as reported by standard, healthcare-based surveillance, is skewed toward viruses producing more severe symptoms. Active, longitudinal studies are a helpful supplement to standard surveillance, can improve understanding of the overall circulation and burden of respiratory viruses, and can aid development of more robust measures for controlling the spread of these pathogens.

Modeling and Surveillance of Reporting Delays of Mosquitoes and Humans Infected With West Nile Virus and Associations With Accuracy of West Nile Virus Forecasts.

Importance: West Nile virus (WNV) is the leading cause of domestically acquired arboviral disease. Objective: To develop real-time WNV forecasts of infected mosquitoes and human cases. Design, Setting, and Participants: Real-time forecasts of WNV in 4 geographically dispersed locations in the United States were generated using a WNV model-inference forecasting system previously validated with retrospective data. Analysis was performed to evaluate how observational reporting delays of mosquito WNV assay results and human medical records were associated with real-time forecast accuracy. Exposures: Mosquitoes positive for WNV and human cases. Main Outcomes and Measures: Delays in reporting mosquito WNV assay results and human medical records and the association of these delays with real-time WNV forecast accuracy. Results: Substantial delays in data reporting exist for both infected mosquitoes and human WNV cases. For human cases, confirmed data (n = 37) lagged behind the onset of illness by a mean (SD) of 5.5 (2.3) weeks (range, 2-14 weeks). These human case reporting lags reduced mean forecast accuracy for the total number of human cases over the season in 110 simulated outbreaks for 2 forecasting systems by 26% and 14%, from 2 weeks before to 3 weeks after the predicted peak of infected mosquitoes. This period is the time span during which 47% of human cases are reported. Of 7064 mosquito pools, 500 (7%) tested positive; the reporting lag for these data associated with viral testing at a state laboratory was a mean (SD) of 6.6 (2.6) days (range, 4-11 days). This reporting lag was associated with decreased mean forecast accuracy for the 3 mosquito infection indicators, timing, magnitude, and season, by approximately 5% for both forecasting systems. Conclusions and Relevance: Delays in reporting human WNV disease and infected mosquito information are associated with difficulties in outbreak surveillance and decreased real-time forecast accuracy. Infected mosquito lags were short enough that skillful forecasts could still be generated for mosquito infection indicators, but the human WNV case lags were too great to support accurate forecasting in real time. Forecasting WNV is potentially an important evidence-based decision support tool for public health officials and mosquito abatement districts; however, to operationalize real-time forecasting, more resources are needed to reduce human case reporting lags between illness onset and case confirmation.

Longitudinal active sampling for respiratory viral infections across age groups.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory viral infections are a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. However, their characterization is incomplete because prevalence estimates are based on syndromic surveillance data. Here, we address this shortcoming through the analysis of infection rates among individuals tested regularly for respiratory viral infections, irrespective of their symptoms. METHODS: We carried out longitudinal sampling and analysis among 214 individuals enrolled at multiple New York City locations from fall 2016 to spring 2018. We combined personal information with weekly nasal swab collection to investigate the prevalence of 18 respiratory viruses among different age groups and to assess risk factors associated with infection susceptibility. RESULTS: 17.5% of samples were positive for respiratory viruses. Some viruses circulated predominantly during winter, whereas others were found year round. Rhinovirus and coronavirus were most frequently detected. Children registered the highest positivity rates, and adults with daily contacts with children experienced significantly more infections than their counterparts without children. CONCLUSION: Respiratory viral infections are widespread among the general population with the majority of individuals presenting multiple infections per year. The observations identify children as the principal source of respiratory infections. These findings motivate further active surveillance and analysis of differences in pathogenicity among respiratory viruses.

Cost-effectiveness of microscopy of urethral smears for asymptomatic Mycoplasma genitalium urethritis in men in England.

The objective was to determine whether or not the limited use of urethral microscopy to diagnose asymptomatic and symptomatic non-chlamydial, non-gonococcal urethritis (NCNGU) in men is a cost-effective strategy to avert pelvic inflammatory disease (PID), ectopic pregnancy or infertility in female partners. Outputs from a transmission dynamic model of NCNGU in a population of 16-30 year olds in England simulating the number of consultations, PID cases and patients treated over time amongst others, were used along with secondary data to undertake a cost-effectiveness analysis carried out from a health care provider perspective. The main outcome measure was cost per case of PID averted. A secondary outcome measure was cost per major outcome averted, where a major outcome is a case of symptomatic PID, ectopic pregnancy, or infertility. Offering a limited number of asymptomatic men urethral microscopy was more effective than the current practice of no microscopy in terms of reducing the number of cases of PID with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £15,700, meaning that an investment of £15,800 is required to avert one case of PID. For major outcomes averted, offering some asymptomatic men urethral microscopy was again found to be more effective than no microscopy, but here an investment of £49,900 is required to avert one major outcome. Testing asymptomatic men for NCNGU in a small number of genitourinary medicine settings in England is not cost-effective, and thus by maintaining the current practice of not offering this patient group microscopy, this continues to make savings for the health care provider.

Asymptomatic Shedding of Respiratory Virus among an Ambulatory Population across Seasons.

Most observation of human respiratory virus carriage is derived from medical surveillance; however, the infections documented by this surveillance represent only a symptomatic fraction of the total infected population. As the role of asymptomatic infection in respiratory virus transmission is still largely unknown and rates of asymptomatic shedding are not well constrained, it is important to obtain more-precise estimates through alternative sampling methods. We actively recruited participants from among visitors to a New York City tourist attraction. Nasopharyngeal swabs, demographics, and survey information on symptoms, medical history, and recent travel were obtained from 2,685 adults over two seasonal arms. We used multiplex PCR to test swab specimens for a selection of common respiratory viruses. A total of 6.2% of samples (168 individuals) tested positive for at least one virus, with 5.6% testing positive in the summer arm and 7.0% testing positive in the winter arm. Of these, 85 (50.6%) were positive for human rhinovirus (HRV), 65 (38.7%) for coronavirus (CoV), and 18 (10.2%) for other viruses (including adenovirus, human metapneumovirus, influenza virus, and parainfluenza virus). Depending on the definition of symptomatic infection, 65% to 97% of infections were classified as asymptomatic. The best-fit model for prediction of positivity across all viruses included a symptom severity score, Hispanic ethnicity data, and age category, though there were slight differences across the seasonal arms. Though having symptoms is predictive of virus positivity, there are high levels of asymptomatic respiratory virus shedding among the members of an ambulatory population in New York City.IMPORTANCE Respiratory viruses are common in human populations, causing significant levels of morbidity. Understanding the distribution of these viruses is critical for designing control methods. However, most data available are from medical records and thus predominantly represent symptomatic infections. Estimates for asymptomatic prevalence are sparse and span a broad range. In this study, we aimed to measure more precisely the proportion of infections that are asymptomatic in a general, ambulatory adult population. We recruited participants from a New York City tourist attraction and administered nasal swabs, testing them for adenovirus, coronavirus, human metapneumovirus, rhinovirus, influenza virus, respiratory syncytial virus, and parainfluenza virus. At recruitment, participants completed surveys on demographics and symptomology. Analysis of these data indicated that over 6% of participants tested positive for shedding of respiratory virus. While participants who tested positive were more likely to report symptoms than those who did not, over half of participants who tested positive were asymptomatic.

Should we screen for the sexually-transmitted infection Mycoplasma genitalium? Evidence synthesis using a transmission-dynamic model.

There is increasing concern about Mycoplasma genitalium as a cause of urethritis, cervicitis, pelvic inflammatory disease (PID), infertility and ectopic pregnancy. Commercial nucleic acid amplification tests (NAATs) are becoming available, and their use in screening for M. genitalium has been advocated, but M. genitalium's natural history is poorly-understood, making screening's effectiveness unclear. We used a transmission-dynamic compartmental model to synthesise evidence from surveillance data and epidemiological and behavioural studies to better understand M. genitalium's natural history, and then examined the effects of implementing NAAT testing. Introducing NAAT testing initially increases diagnoses, by finding a larger proportion of infections; subsequently the diagnosis rate falls, due to reduced incidence. Testing only symptomatic patients finds relatively little infection in women, as a large proportion is asymptomatic. Testing both symptomatic and asymptomatic patients has a much larger impact and reduces cumulative PID incidence in women due to M. genitalium by 31.1% (95% range:13.0%-52.0%) over 20 years. However, there is important uncertainty in M. genitalium's natural history parameters, leading to uncertainty in the absolute reduction in PID and sequelae. Empirical work is required to improve understanding of key aspects of M. genitalium's natural history before it will be possible to determine the effectiveness of screening.

The impact of HCV therapy in a high HIV-HCV prevalence population: A modeling study on people who inject drugs in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.

BACKGROUND: Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) and Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) coinfection is a major global health problem especially among people who inject drugs (PWID), with significant clinical implications. Mathematical models have been used to great effect to shape HIV care, but few have been proposed for HIV/HCV. METHODS: We constructed a deterministic compartmental ODE model that incorporated layers for HIV disease progression, HCV disease progression and PWID demography. Antiretroviral therapy (ART) and Methadone Maintenance Therapy (MMT) scale-ups were modeled as from 2016 and projected forward 10 years. HCV treatment roll-out was modeled beginning in 2026, after a variety of MMT scale-up scenarios, and projected forward 10 years. RESULTS: Our results indicate that scale-up of ART has a major impact on HIV though not on HCV burden. MMT scale-up has an impact on incidence of both infections. HCV treatment roll-out has a measurable impact on reductions of deaths, increasing multifold the mortality reductions afforded by just ART/MMT scale-ups. CONCLUSION: HCV treatment roll-out can have major and long-lasting effects on averting PWID deaths on top of those averted by ART/MMT scale-up. Efficient intervention scale-up of HCV alongside HIV interventions is critical in Vietnam.

Modeling the effect of HIV coinfection on clearance and sustained virologic response during treatment for hepatitis C virus.

BACKGROUND: HIV/hepatitis C (HCV) coinfection is a major concern in global health today. Each pathogen can exacerbate the effects of the other and affect treatment outcomes. Understanding the within-host dynamics of these coinfecting pathogens is crucial, particularly in light of new, direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs) for HCV treatment that are becoming available. METHODS AND FINDINGS: In this study, we construct a within-host mathematical model of HCV/HIV coinfection by adapting a previously published model of HCV monoinfection to include an immune system component in infection clearance. We explore the effect of HIV-coinfection on spontaneous HCV clearance and sustained virologic response (SVR) by building in decreased immune function with increased HIV viral load. Treatment is modeled by modifying HCV burst-size, and we use clinically-relevant parameter estimates. Our model replicates real-world patient outcomes; it outputs infected and uninfected target cell counts, and HCV viral load for varying treatment and coinfection scenarios. Increased HIV viral load and reduced CD4(+) count correlate with decreased spontaneous clearance and SVR chances. Treatment efficacy/duration combinations resulting in SVR are calculated for HIV-positive and negative patients, and crucially, we replicate the new findings that highly efficacious DAAs reduce treatment differences between HIV-positive and negative patients. However, we also find that if drug efficacy decays sufficiently over treatment course, SVR differences between HIV-positive and negative patients reappear. CONCLUSIONS: Our model shows theoretical evidence of the differing outcomes of HCV infection in cases where the immune system is compromised by HIV. Understanding what controls these outcomes is especially important with the advent of efficacious but often prohibitively expensive DAAs. Using a model to predict patient response can lend insight into optimal treatment design, both in helping to identify patients who might respond well to treatment and in helping to identify treatment pathways and pitfalls.

The potential impact of coinfection on antimicrobial chemotherapy and drug resistance.

Across a range of pathogens, resistance to chemotherapy is a growing problem in both public health and animal health. Despite the ubiquity of coinfection, and its potential effects on within-host biology, the role played by coinfecting pathogens on the evolution of resistance and efficacy of antimicrobial chemotherapy is rarely considered. In this review, we provide an overview of the mechanisms of interaction of coinfecting pathogens, ranging from immune modulation and resource modulation, to drug interactions. We discuss their potential implications for the evolution of resistance, providing evidence in the rare cases where it is available. Overall, our review indicates that the impact of coinfection has the potential to be considerable, suggesting that this should be taken into account when designing antimicrobial drug treatments.