Land-use change in the past 40 years explains shifts in arthropod community traits.

Understanding how anthropogenic activities induce changes in the functional traits of arthropod communities is critical to assessing their ecological consequences. However, we largely lack comprehensive assessments of the long-term impact of global-change drivers on the trait composition of arthropod communities across a large number of species and sites. This knowledge gap critically hampers our ability to predict human-driven impacts on communities and ecosystems. Here, we use a dataset of 1.73 million individuals from 877 species to study how four functionally important traits of carabid beetles and spiders (i.e. body size, duration of activity period, tolerance to drought, and dispersal capacity) have changed at the community level across ~40 years in different types of land use and as a consequence of land use changes (that is, urbanisation and loss of woody vegetation) at the landscape scale in Switzerland. The results show that the mean body size in carabid communities declined in all types of land use, with particularly stronger declines in croplands compared to forests. Furthermore, the length of the activity period and the tolerance to drought of spider communities decreased in most land use types. The average body size of carabid communities in landscapes with increased urbanisation in the last ~40 years tended to decrease. However, the length of the activity period, the tolerance to drought, and the dispersal capacity did not change significantly. Furthermore, urbanisation promoted increases in the average dispersal capacities of spider communities. Additionally, urbanisation favoured spider communities with larger body sizes and longer activity periods. The loss of woody areas at the landscape level was associated with trait shifts to carabid communities with larger body sizes, shorter activity periods, higher drought tolerances and strongly decreased dispersal capacities. Decreases in activity periods and dispersal capacities were also found in spider communities. Our study demonstrates that human-induced changes in land use alter key functional traits of carabid and spider communities in the long term. The detected trait shifts in arthropod communities likely have important consequences for their functional roles in ecosystems.

Linking human impacts to community processes in terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems.

Human impacts such as habitat loss, climate change and biological invasions are radically altering biodiversity, with greater effects projected into the future. Evidence suggests human impacts may differ substantially between terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, but the reasons for these differences are poorly understood. We propose an integrative approach to explain these differences by linking impacts to four fundamental processes that structure communities: dispersal, speciation, species-level selection and ecological drift. Our goal is to provide process-based insights into why human impacts, and responses to impacts, may differ across ecosystem types using a mechanistic, eco-evolutionary comparative framework. To enable these insights, we review and synthesise (i) how the four processes influence diversity and dynamics in terrestrial versus freshwater communities, specifically whether the relative importance of each process differs among ecosystems, and (ii) the pathways by which human impacts can produce divergent responses across ecosystems, due to differences in the strength of processes among ecosystems we identify. Finally, we highlight research gaps and next steps, and discuss how this approach can provide new insights for conservation. By focusing on the processes that shape diversity in communities, we aim to mechanistically link human impacts to ongoing and future changes in ecosystems.

Soil seed bank responses to edge effects in temperate European forests.

Aim: The amount of forest edges is increasing globally due to forest fragmentation and land-use changes. However, edge effects on the soil seed bank of temperate forests are still poorly understood. Here, we assessed edge effects at contrasting spatial scales across Europe and quantified the extent to which edges can preserve the seeds of forest specialist plants. Location: Temperate European deciduous forests along a 2,300-km latitudinal gradient. Time period: 2018-2021. Major taxa studied: Vascular plants. Methods: Through a greenhouse germination experiment, we studied how edge effects alter the density, diversity, composition and functionality of forest soil seed banks in 90 plots along different latitudes, elevations and forest management types. We also assessed which environmental conditions drive the seed bank responses at the forest edge versus interior and looked at the relationship between the seed bank and the herb layer species richness. Results: Overall, 10,108 seedlings of 250 species emerged from the soil seed bank. Seed density and species richness of generalists (species not only associated with forests) were higher at edges compared to interiors, with a negative influence of C : N ratio and litter quality. Conversely, forest specialist species richness did not decline from the interior to the edge. Also, edges were compositionally, but not functionally, different from interiors. The correlation between the seed bank and the herb layer species richness was positive and affected by microclimate. Main conclusions: Our results underpin how edge effects shape species diversity and composition of soil seed banks in ancient forests, especially increasing the proportion of generalist species and thus potentially favouring a shift in community composition. However, the presence of many forest specialists suggests that soil seed banks still play a key role in understorey species persistence and could support the resilience of our fragmented forests.

Recent trends in stream macroinvertebrates: warm-adapted and pesticide-tolerant taxa increase in richness.

Recently, a plethora of studies reporting insect declines has been published. Even though the common theme is decreasing insect richness, positive trends have also been documented. Here, we analysed nationwide, systematic monitoring data on aquatic insect richness collected at 438 sites in Switzerland from 2010 to 2019. In addition to taxonomic richness, we grouped taxa in accordance with their ecological preferences and functional traits to gain a better understanding of trends and possible underlying mechanisms. We found that in general, richness of aquatic insects remained stable or increased with time. Warm-adapted taxa, common feeding guilds and pesticide-tolerant taxa showed increasing patterns while cold-adapted, rarer feeding guilds and pesticide-sensitive taxa displayed stable trends. Both climate and land-use-related factors were the most important explanatory variables for the patterns of aquatic insect richness. Although our data cover the last decade only, our results suggest that recent developments in insect richness are context-dependent and affect functional groups differently. However, longer investigations and a good understanding of the baseline are important to reveal if the increase in temperature- and pesticide-tolerant species will lead to a decrease in specialized species and a homogenization of biotic communities in the long term.

Natural disturbance impacts on trade-offs and co-benefits of forest biodiversity and carbon.

With accelerating environmental change, understanding forest disturbance impacts on trade-offs between biodiversity and carbon dynamics is of high socio-economic importance. Most studies, however, have assessed immediate or short-term effects of disturbance, while long-term impacts remain poorly understood. Using a tree-ring-based approach, we analysed the effect of 250 years of disturbances on present-day biodiversity indicators and carbon dynamics in primary forests. Disturbance legacies spanning centuries shaped contemporary forest co-benefits and trade-offs, with contrasting, local-scale effects. Disturbances enhanced carbon sequestration, reaching maximum rates within a comparatively narrow post-disturbance window (up to 50 years). Concurrently, disturbance diminished aboveground carbon storage, which gradually returned to peak levels over centuries. Temporal patterns in biodiversity potential were bimodal; the first maximum coincided with the short-term post-disturbance carbon sequestration peak, and the second occurred during periods of maximum carbon storage in complex old-growth forest. Despite fluctuating local-scale trade-offs, forest biodiversity and carbon storage remained stable across the broader study region, and our data support a positive relationship between carbon stocks and biodiversity potential. These findings underscore the interdependencies of forest processes, and highlight the necessity of large-scale conservation programmes to effectively promote both biodiversity and long-term carbon storage, particularly given the accelerating global biodiversity and climate crises.

Large-scale variation in birth timing and synchrony of a large herbivore along the latitudinal and altitudinal gradients.

Hopkins' Bioclimatic Law predicts geographical patterns in phenological timing by establishing a correspondence between latitudinal and altitudinal gradients. First proposed for key phenological events of plants, such as leaf sprouting or flowering dates, this law has rarely been used to assess the geographical equivalence of key life-history traits of mammals. We hypothesize that (H1) parturition dates of European roe deer Capreolus capreolus are delayed and more synchronized at higher latitudes and altitudes, (H2) parturition timing varies along latitudinal and altitudinal gradients in a way that matches the Hopkins' Bioclimatic Law and (H3) females adjust parturition timing to match the period of high energy demand with peak resource availability. We used parturition dates of 7,444 European roe deer from Switzerland to assess altitudinal variation in birth timing and synchrony from 288 to 2,366 m a.s.l. We then performed a literature survey to compare altitudinal results with those from different populations along the species' latitudinal range of distribution. Finally, we performed spatial analysis combining our highly resolved altitudinal data on parturition dates with plant phenology data. As expected, parturition dates were delayed with increasing latitude and altitude. This delay matched the Bioclimatic Law, as the effect of 1º increase in latitude was similar to 120 m increase in altitude. However, while parturitions were more synchronized with increasing altitude, we did not detect any trend along the latitudinal gradient. Finally, plant phenology explained altitudinal variation in parturition timing better than a linear effect of altitude. Our findings clearly demonstrate the ability of a large herbivore to match parturition timing with phenological conditions across the altitudinal gradient, even at the smallest spatial scales.

Alpine glacial relict species losing out to climate change: The case of the fragmented mountain hare population (Lepus timidus) in the Alps.

Alpine and Arctic species are considered to be particularly vulnerable to climate change, which is expected to cause habitat loss, fragmentation and-ultimately-extinction of cold-adapted species. However, the impact of climate change on glacial relict populations is not well understood, and specific recommendations for adaptive conservation management are lacking. We focused on the mountain hare (Lepus timidus) as a model species and modelled species distribution in combination with patch and landscape-based connectivity metrics. They were derived from graph-theory models to quantify changes in species distribution and to estimate the current and future importance of habitat patches for overall population connectivity. Models were calibrated based on 1,046 locations of species presence distributed across three biogeographic regions in the Swiss Alps and extrapolated according to two IPCC scenarios of climate change (RCP 4.5 & 8.5), each represented by three downscaled global climate models. The models predicted an average habitat loss of 35% (22%-55%) by 2100, mainly due to an increase in temperature during the reproductive season. An increase in habitat fragmentation was reflected in a 43% decrease in patch size, a 17% increase in the number of habitat patches and a 34% increase in inter-patch distance. However, the predicted changes in habitat availability and connectivity varied considerably between biogeographic regions: Whereas the greatest habitat losses with an increase in inter-patch distance were predicted at the southern and northern edges of the species' Alpine distribution, the greatest increase in patch number and decrease in patch size is expected in the central Swiss Alps. Finally, both the number of isolated habitat patches and the number of patches crucial for maintaining the habitat network increased under the different variants of climate change. Focusing conservation action on the central Swiss Alps may help mitigate the predicted effects of climate change on population connectivity.

Horn growth variation and hunting selection of the Alpine ibex.

Selective hunting can affect demographic characteristics and phenotypic traits of the targeted species. Hunting systems often involve harvesting quotas based on sex, age and/or size categories to avoid selective pressure. However, it is difficult to assess whether such regulations deter hunters from targeting larger "trophy" animals with longer horns that may have evolutionary consequences. Here, we compile 44,088 annually resolved and absolutely dated measurements of Alpine ibex (Capra ibex) horn growth increments from 8,355 males, harvested between 1978 and 2013, in the eastern Swiss Canton of Grisons. We aim to determine whether male ibex with longer horns were preferentially targeted, causing animals with early rapid horn growth to have shorter lives, and whether such hunting selection translated into long-term trends in horn size over the past four decades. Results show that medium- to longer-horned adult males had a higher probability of being harvested than shorter-horned individuals of the same age and that regulations do affect the hunters' behaviour. Nevertheless, phenotypic traits such as horn length, as well as body size and weight, remained stable over the study period. Although selective trophy hunting still occurs, it did not cause a measurable evolutionary response in Grisons' Alpine ibex populations; managed and surveyed since 1978. Nevertheless, further research is needed to understand whether phenotypic trait development is coinfluenced by other, potentially compensatory factors that may possibly mask the effects of selective, long-term hunting pressure.

Seed perishability determines the caching behaviour of a food-hoarding bird.

Many animals hoard seeds for later consumption and establish seed caches that are often located at sites with specific environmental characteristics. One explanation for the selection of non-random caching locations is the avoidance of pilferage by other animals. Another possible hypothesis is that animals choose locations that hamper the perishability of stored food, allowing the consumption of unspoiled food items over long time periods. We examined seed perishability and pilferage avoidance as potential drivers for caching behaviour of spotted nutcrackers (Nucifraga caryocatactes) in the Swiss Alps where the birds are specialized on caching seeds of Swiss stone pine (Pinus cembra). We used seedling establishment as an inverse measure of seed perishability, as established seedlings cannot longer be consumed by nutcrackers. We recorded the environmental conditions (i.e. canopy openness and soil moisture) of seed caching, seedling establishment and pilferage sites. Our results show that sites of seed caching and seedling establishment had opposed microenvironmental conditions. Canopy openness and soil moisture were negatively related to seed caching but positively related to seedling establishment, i.e. nutcrackers cached seeds preferentially at sites where seed perishability was low. We found no effects of environmental factors on cache pilferage, i.e. neither canopy openness nor soil moisture had significant effects on pilferage rates. We thus could not relate caching behaviour to pilferage avoidance. Our study highlights the importance of seed perishability as a mechanism for seed-caching behaviour, which should be considered in future studies. Our findings could have important implications for the regeneration of plants whose seeds are dispersed by seed-caching animals, as the potential of seedlings to establish may strongly decrease if animals cache seeds at sites that favour seed perishability rather than seedling establishment.

European springtime temperature synchronises ibex horn growth across the eastern Swiss Alps.

Direct effects of climate change on animal physiology, and indirect impacts from disruption of seasonal synchrony and breakdown of trophic interactions are particularly severe in Arctic and Alpine ecosystems. Unravelling biotic from abiotic drivers, however, remains challenging because high-resolution animal population data are often limited in space and time. Here, we show that variation in annual horn growth (an indirect proxy for individual performance) of 8043 male Alpine ibex (Capra ibex) over the past four decades is well synchronised among eight disjunct colonies in the eastern Swiss Alps. Elevated March to May temperatures, causing premature melting of Alpine snowcover, earlier plant phenology and subsequent improvement of ibex food resources, fuelled annual horn growth. These results reveal dependency of local trophic interactions on large-scale climate dynamics, and provide evidence that declining herbivore performance is not a universal response to global warming even for high-altitude populations that are also harvested.

Agricultural practices and biodiversity: Conservation policies for semi-natural grasslands in Europe.

Europe's semi-natural grasslands support notably high levels of temperate biodiversity across multiple taxonomic groups. However, these ecosystems face unique conservation challenges. Contemporary agricultural practices have replaced historical traditional low-intensity agriculture in many regions, resulting in a spectrum of management intensities within these ecosystems, ranging from highly intensive methods to complete abandonment. Paradoxically, both extremes along this spectrum of management intensity can be detrimental to biodiversity of semi-natural grasslands. Moreover, while anthropogenic climate change is an overarching threat to these ecosystems, rapid changes in land use and its intensity often present more immediate pressures. Often occurring at a faster rate than climate change itself, these land-use changes have the potential to rapidly impact the biodiversity of these grasslands. Here, we divide the ecological processes, threats, and developments to semi-natural grasslands into three sections. First, we examine the different impacts of agricultural intensification and abandonment on these ecosystems, considering their different consequences for biodiversity. Second, we review seminal works on various evidence-based management practices and offer a concise summary that provides support for various conservation and management strategies. However, the socio-economic factors that drive both abandonment and intensification in semi-natural grasslands can also be used to develop solutions through strategic governmental and non-governmental interventions. Accordingly, we conclude with a way forward by providing several key policy recommendations. By synthesizing existing knowledge and identifying research gaps, this essay aims to provide valuable insights for advancing the sustainable management of semi-natural grasslands.

Trade-offs in biodiversity and ecosystem services between edges and interiors in European forests.

Forest biodiversity and ecosystem services are hitherto predominantly quantified in forest interiors, well away from edges. However, these edges also represent a substantial proportion of the global forest cover. Here we quantified plant biodiversity and ecosystem service indicators in 225 plots along forest edge-to-interior transects across Europe. We found strong trade-offs: phylogenetic diversity (evolutionary measure of biodiversity), proportion of forest specialists, decomposition and heatwave buffering increased towards the interior, whereas species richness, nectar production potential, stemwood biomass and tree regeneration decreased. These trade-offs were mainly driven by edge-to-interior structural differences. As fragmentation continues, recognizing the role of forest edges is crucial for integrating biodiversity and ecosystem service considerations into sustainable forest management and policy.

Different roles of concurring climate and regional land-use changes in past 40 years' insect trends.

Climate and land-use changes are main drivers of insect declines, but their combined effects have not yet been quantified over large spatiotemporal scales. We analysed changes in the distribution (mean occupancy of squares) of 390 insect species (butterflies, grasshoppers, dragonflies), using 1.45 million records from across bioclimatic gradients of Switzerland between 1980 and 2020. We found no overall decline, but strong increases and decreases in the distributions of different species. For species that showed strongest increases (25% quantile), the average proportion of occupied squares increased in 40 years by 0.128 (95% credible interval: 0.123-0.132), which equals an average increase in mean occupancy of 71.3% (95% CI: 67.4-75.1%) relative to their 40-year mean occupancy. For species that showed strongest declines (25% quantile), the average proportion decreased by 0.0660 (95% CI: 0.0613-0.0709), equalling an average decrease in mean occupancy of 58.3% (95% CI: 52.2-64.4%). Decreases were strongest for narrow-ranged, specialised, and cold-adapted species. Short-term distribution changes were associated to both climate changes and regional land-use changes. Moreover, interactive effects between climate and regional land-use changes confirm that the various drivers of global change can have even greater impacts on biodiversity in combination than alone. In contrast, 40-year distribution changes were not clearly related to regional land-use changes, potentially reflecting mixed changes in local land use after 1980. Climate warming however was strongly linked to 40-year changes, indicating its key role in driving insect trends of temperate regions in recent decades.

Drivers of carbon stocks in forest edges across Europe.

Forests play a key role in global carbon cycling and sequestration. However, the potential for carbon drawdown is affected by forest fragmentation and resulting changes in microclimate, nutrient inputs, disturbance and productivity near edges. Up to 20% of the global forested area lies within 100 m of an edge and, even in temperate forests, knowledge on how edge conditions affect carbon stocks and how far this influence penetrates into forest interiors is scarce. Here we studied carbon stocks in the aboveground biomass, forest floor and the mineral topsoil in 225 plots in deciduous forest edges across Europe and tested the impact of macroclimate, nitrogen deposition and smaller-grained drivers (e.g. microclimate) on these stocks. Total carbon and carbon in the aboveground biomass stock were on average 39% and 95% higher at the forest edge than 100 m into the interior. The increase in the aboveground biomass stock close to the edge was mainly related to enhanced nitrogen deposition. No edge influence was found for stocks in the mineral topsoil. Edge-to-interior gradients in forest floor carbon changed across latitude: carbon stocks in the forest floor were higher near the edge in southern Europe. Forest floor carbon decreased with increasing litter quality (i.e. high decomposition rate) and decreasing plant area index, whereas higher soil temperatures negatively affected the mineral topsoil carbon. Based on high-resolution forest fragmentation maps, we estimate that the additional carbon stored in deciduous forest edges across Europe amounts to not less than 183 Tg carbon, which is equivalent to the storage capacity of 1 million ha of additional forest. This study underpins the importance of including edge influences when quantifying the carbon stocks in temperate forests and stresses the importance of preserving natural forest edges and small forest patches with a high edge-to-interior surface area.

Hare's affairs: Lessons learnt from a noninvasive genetic monitoring for tracking mountain hare individuals.

Systematic monitoring of individuals and their abundance over time has become an important tool to provide information for conservation. For genetic monitoring studies, noninvasive sampling has emerged as a valuable approach, particularly so for elusive or rare animals. Here, we present the 5-year results of an ongoing noninvasive genetic monitoring of mountain hares (Lepus timidus) in a protected area in the Swiss Alps. We used nuclear microsatellites and a sex marker to identify individuals and assign species to noninvasively collected feces samples. Through including a marker for sex identification, we were able to assess sex ratio changes and sex-specific demographic parameters over time. Male abundance in the area showed high fluctuations and apparent survival for males was lower than for females. Generally, males and females showed only little temporary migration into and out of the study area. Additionally, using genotyped tissue samples from mountain hares, European hares (Lepus europaeus) and their hybrids, we were able to provide evidence for the first occurrence of a European hare in the study area at an elevation of 2,300 m a.s.l. in spring 2016. For future monitoring studies, we suggest to include complementary analysis methods to reliably infer species identities of the individuals analyzed and, thus, not only monitor mountain hare individual abundance, but also assess the potential threats given through competitive exclusion by and hybridization with the European hare.

Stable body size of Alpine ungulates.

In many species, decreasing body size has been associated with increasing temperatures. Although climate-induced phenotypic shifts, and evolutionary impacts, can affect the structure and functioning of marine and terrestrial ecosystems through biological and metabolic rules, evidence for shrinking body size is often challenged by (i) relatively short intervals of observation, (ii) a limited number of individuals, and (iii) confinement to small and isolated populations. To overcome these issues and provide important multi-species, long-term information for conservation managers and scientists, we compiled and analysed 222 961 measurements of eviscerated body weight, 170 729 measurements of hind foot length and 145 980 measurements of lower jaw length, in the four most abundant Alpine ungulate species: ibex (Capra ibex), chamois (Rupicapra rupicapra), red deer (Cervus elaphus) and roe deer (Capreolus capreolus). Regardless of age, sex and phylogeny, the body mass and size of these sympatric animals, from the eastern Swiss Alps, remained stable between 1991 and 2013. Neither global warming nor local hunting influenced the fitness of the wild ungulates studied at a detectable level. However, we cannot rule out possible counteracting effects of enhanced nutritional resources associated with longer and warmer growing seasons, as well as the animals' ability to migrate along extensive elevational gradients in the highly diversified alpine landscape of this study.

The importance of food quantity and quality for reproductive performance in alpine water pipits (Anthus spinoletta).

Studies relating reproduction to food availability are usually restricted to food quantity, but ignore food quality and the effects of habitat structure on obtaining the food. This is particularly true for insectivorous birds. In this study we relate measures of reproductive success, time of reproduction and nestling size of water pipits (Anthus spinoletta) to biomass, taxonomic composition and nutritional content of available food, and to vegetation structure and distance to feeding sites. Clutch size was positively correlated with the proportion of grass at the feeding sites, which facilitates foraging. This suggests that water pipits adapt their clutch size to environmental conditions. Also, pipits started breeding earlier and produced more fledglings when abundant food and a large proportion of grass were available, probably because these conditions allow the birds to gain more energy in less time. The number of fledglings was positively correlated with the energy content of available food. No significant relationships were found between feeding conditions and nestling size or the time that nestlings took to fledge. This suggests that water pipits do not invest more in individual nestlings when food conditions are favourable but rather start breeding earlier and produce more young. Taxonomic composition and nutritional content of prey were not correlated with any of the reproductive parameters, indicating that profitability rather than quality of food affects reproductive success.

Optimizing passive acoustic sampling of bats in forests.

Passive acoustic methods are increasingly used in biodiversity research and monitoring programs because they are cost-effective and permit the collection of large datasets. However, the accuracy of the results depends on the bioacoustic characteristics of the focal taxa and their habitat use. In particular, this applies to bats which exhibit distinct activity patterns in three-dimensionally structured habitats such as forests. We assessed the performance of 21 acoustic sampling schemes with three temporal sampling patterns and seven sampling designs. Acoustic sampling was performed in 32 forest plots, each containing three microhabitats: forest ground, canopy, and forest gap. We compared bat activity, species richness, and sampling effort using species accumulation curves fitted with the clench equation. In addition, we estimated the sampling costs to undertake the best sampling schemes. We recorded a total of 145,433 echolocation call sequences of 16 bat species. Our results indicated that to generate the best outcome, it was necessary to sample all three microhabitats of a given forest location simultaneously throughout the entire night. Sampling only the forest gaps and the forest ground simultaneously was the second best choice and proved to be a viable alternative when the number of available detectors is limited. When assessing bat species richness at the 1-km(2) scale, the implementation of these sampling schemes at three to four forest locations yielded highest labor cost-benefit ratios but increasing equipment costs. Our study illustrates that multiple passive acoustic sampling schemes require testing based on the target taxa and habitat complexity and should be performed with reference to cost-benefit ratios. Choosing a standardized and replicated sampling scheme is particularly important to optimize the level of precision in inventories, especially when rare or elusive species are expected.

Temperate mountain forest biodiversity under climate change: compensating negative effects by increasing structural complexity.

Species adapted to cold-climatic mountain environments are expected to face a high risk of range contractions, if not local extinctions under climate change. Yet, the populations of many endothermic species may not be primarily affected by physiological constraints, but indirectly by climate-induced changes of habitat characteristics. In mountain forests, where vertebrate species largely depend on vegetation composition and structure, deteriorating habitat suitability may thus be mitigated or even compensated by habitat management aiming at compositional and structural enhancement. We tested this possibility using four cold-adapted bird species with complementary habitat requirements as model organisms. Based on species data and environmental information collected in 300 1-km2 grid cells distributed across four mountain ranges in central Europe, we investigated (1) how species' occurrence is explained by climate, landscape, and vegetation, (2) to what extent climate change and climate-induced vegetation changes will affect habitat suitability, and (3) whether these changes could be compensated by adaptive habitat management. Species presence was modelled as a function of climate, landscape and vegetation variables under current climate; moreover, vegetation-climate relationships were assessed. The models were extrapolated to the climatic conditions of 2050, assuming the moderate IPCC-scenario A1B, and changes in species' occurrence probability were quantified. Finally, we assessed the maximum increase in occurrence probability that could be achieved by modifying one or multiple vegetation variables under altered climate conditions. Climate variables contributed significantly to explaining species occurrence, and expected climatic changes, as well as climate-induced vegetation trends, decreased the occurrence probability of all four species, particularly at the low-altitudinal margins of their distribution. These effects could be partly compensated by modifying single vegetation factors, but full compensation would only be achieved if several factors were changed in concert. The results illustrate the possibilities and limitations of adaptive species conservation management under climate change.