Telephone triage of chest pain in out-of-hours primary care: external validation of a symptom-based prediction rule to rule out acute coronary syndromes.

INTRODUCTION: Telephone triage is pivotal for evaluating the urgency of patient care, and in the Netherlands, the Netherlands Triage Standard (NTS) demonstrates moderate discrimination for chest pain. To address this, the Safety First Prediction Rule (SFPR) was developed to improve the safety of ruling out acute coronary syndrome (ACS) during telephone triage. METHODS: We conducted an external validation of the SFPR using data from the TRACE study, a retrospective cohort study in out-of-hours primary care. We evaluated the diagnostic accuracy assessment for ACS, major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), and major events within 6 weeks. Moreover, we compared its performance with that of the NTS algorithm. RESULTS: Among 1404 included patients (57.3% female, 6.8% ACS, 8.6% MACE), the SFPR demonstrated good discrimination for ACS (C-statistic: 0.79; 95%-CI: 0.75-0.83) and MACE (C-statistic: 0.79; 95%-CI: 0.0.76-0.82). Calibration was satisfactory, with overestimation observed in high-risk patients for ACS. The SFPR (risk threshold 2.5%) trended toward higher sensitivity (95.8% vs. 86.3%) and negative predictive value (99.3% vs. 97.6%) with a lower negative likelihood ratio (0.10 vs. 0.34) than the NTS algorithm. CONCLUSION: The SFPR proved robust for risk stratification in patients with acute chest pain seeking out-of-hours primary care in the Netherlands. Further prospective validation and implementation are warranted to refine and establish the rule's clinical utility.

Use of the Smoking Cessation App Ex-Smokers iCoach and Associations With Smoking-Related Outcomes Over Time in a Large Sample of European Smokers: Retrospective Observational Study.

BACKGROUND: Digital interventions are increasingly used to support smoking cessation. Ex-smokers iCoach was a widely available app for smoking cessation used by 404,551 European smokers between June 15, 2011, and June 21, 2013. This provides a unique opportunity to investigate the uptake of a freely available digital smoking cessation intervention and its effects on smoking-related outcomes. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to investigate whether there were distinct trajectories of iCoach use, examine which baseline characteristics were associated with user groups (based on the intensity of use), and assess if and how these groups were associated with smoking-related outcomes. METHODS: Analyses were performed using data from iCoach users registered between June 15, 2011, and June 21, 2013. Smoking-related data were collected at baseline and every 3 months thereafter, with a maximum of 8 follow-ups. First, group-based modeling was applied to detect distinct trajectories of app use. This was performed in a subset of steady users who had completed at least 1 follow-up measurement. Second, ordinal logistic regression was used to assess the baseline characteristics that were associated with user group membership. Finally, generalized estimating equations were used to examine the association between the user groups and smoking status, quitting stage, and self-efficacy over time. RESULTS: Of the 311,567 iCoach users, a subset of 26,785 (8.6%) steady iCoach users were identified and categorized into 4 distinct user groups: low (n=17,422, 65.04%), mild (n=4088, 15.26%), moderate (n=4415, 16.48%), and intensive (n=860, 3.21%) users. Older users and users who found it important to quit smoking had higher odds of more intensive app use, whereas men, employed users, heavy smokers, and users with higher self-efficacy scores had lower odds of more intensive app use. User groups were significantly associated with subsequent smoking status, quitting stage, and self-efficacy over time. For all groups, over time, the probability of being a smoker decreased, whereas the probability of being in an improved quitting stage increased, as did the self-efficacy to quit smoking. For all outcomes, the greatest change was observed between baseline and the first follow-up at 3 months. In the intensive user group, the greatest change was seen between baseline and the 9-month follow-up, with the observed change declining gradually in moderate, mild, and low users. CONCLUSIONS: In the subset of steady iCoach users, more intensive app use was associated with higher smoking cessation rates, increased quitting stage, and higher self-efficacy to quit smoking over time. These users seemed to benefit most from the app in the first 3 months of use. Women and older users were more likely to use the app more intensively. Additionally, users who found quitting difficult used the iCoach app more intensively and grew more confident in their ability to quit over time.

Personalized approach using wearable technology for early detection of atrial fibrillation in high-risk primary care patients (PATCH-AF): Study protocol for a cluster randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common cardiac arrhythmia with a lifetime risk of one in 4. Unfortunately, AF often remains undetected, particularly when it is paroxysmal, for which single time-point evaluation is less effective. Recently, unobtrusive cardiac arrhythmia monitoring devices have become available, providing the opportunity to conduct prolonged electrocardiographic (ECG) monitoring in a patient-friendly manner. We hypothesize that applying these devices in at risk patients may improve AF detection, particularly when used during repeated episodes. We therefore aim to evaluate the diagnostic yield of yearly screening for atrial fibrillation when using a wearable device for continuous ECG monitoring for 7 days in primary care patients ≥ 65 years deemed at high-risk of AF (CHA2DS2VASc score ≥3 for men or ≥4 for women) compared with usual care over a study period of 3 years. METHODS: Primary care based, cluster-randomized controlled trial with 10 general practices randomized to the intervention group and 10 general practices randomized to control group. In each group, we aim to enroll 930 patients, ≥65 years and a CHA2DS2VASc score ≥3 for men or ≥ 4 for women. The intervention consists of continuous ECG monitoring for 7 days at start of the study (t = 0), after one (t = 1) and 2 years (t = 2). The control practices will follow usual diagnostic care procedures. RESULTS: Results are expected in 2025. CONCLUSIONS: This study differs from previous randomized controlled trials, as it involves longitudinal screening of a risk-stratified population. In case of a beneficial diagnostic yield, the PATCH-AF study will add to the evidence for AF screening. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The PATCH-AF study is registered at The Netherlands Trial Register (NTR number NL9656).

Symptoms and seeking supportive care and associations with quality of life after treatment for colon cancer: Results from the I CARE cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: Patients treated for colon cancer report many symptoms that affect quality of life (QoL). Survivorship care aims at QoL improvement. In this study, we assess associations between symptoms and seeking supportive care and lower QoL and QoL changes overtime during survivorship care. METHODS: A prospective cohort of colon cancer survivors. Questionnaires are administered at inclusion and 6 months later to evaluate symptoms, functioning and seeking supportive care including associations with QoL, using the EORTC QLQ-C30. RESULTS: The mean QoL score at the first questionnaire was 82 (scale 1-100), which improved over time. Pain, bowel symptoms and problems in physical, role, cognitive or social functioning are associated with lower QoL at inclusion but are not associated with QoL changes over time. Seeking support for lower bowel symptoms, physical functioning or fatigue is associated with lower QoL. After 6 months, seeking support for upper bowel symptoms or physical functioning is associated with a tendency towards less QoL improvement. CONCLUSION: QoL of colon cancer survivors improves over 6 months, but seeking support for specific symptoms barely contribute to this improvement. IMPLICATIONS: This study confirms the importance of addressing symptoms, problems related to functioning and seeking supportive care during survivorship care.

Effect of general practitioner-led versus surgeon-led colon cancer survivorship care, with or without eHealth support, on quality of life (I CARE): an interim analysis of 1-year results of a randomised, controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Colon cancer is associated with an increased risk of physical and psychosocial morbidity, even after treatment. General practitioner (GP) care could be beneficial to help to reduce this morbidity. We aimed to assess quality of life (QOL) in patients who received GP-led survivorship care after treatment for colon cancer compared with those who received surgeon-led care. Furthermore, the effect of an eHealth app (Oncokompas) on QOL was assessed in both patient groups. METHODS: We did a pragmatic two-by-two factorial, open-label, randomised, controlled trial at eight hospitals in the Netherlands. Eligible patients were receiving primary surgical treatment for stage I-III colon cancer or rectosigmoid carcinoma and qualified for routine follow-up according to Dutch national guidelines. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1:1:1)-via computer-generated variable block randomisation stratified by age and tumour stage-to survivorship care overseen by a surgeon, survivorship care overseen by a surgeon with access to Oncokompas, survivorship care overseen by a GP, or survivorship care overseen by a GP with access to Oncokompas. Blinding of the trial was not possible. The primary endpoint of the trial was QOL at 5 years, as measured by the change from baseline in the European Organistion for Research and Treatment of Cancer QLQ-C30 summary score. Here, we report an unplanned interim analysis of QOL at the 12-month follow-up. Grouped comparisons were done (ie, both GP-led care groups were compared with both surgeon-led groups, and both Oncokompas groups were compared with both no Oncokompas groups). Differences in change of QOL between trial groups were estimated with linear mixed-effects models. A change of ten units was considered clinically meaningful. Analysis was by intention to treat. This trial is registered with the Netherlands Trial Register, NTR4860. FINDINGS: Between March 26, 2015, and Nov 21, 2018, 353 patients were enrolled and randomly assigned. There were 50 early withdrawals (27 patient decisions and 23 GP withdrawals). Of the remaining 303 participants, 79 were assigned to surgeon-led care, 83 to surgeon-led care with Oncokompas, 73 to GP-led care, and 68 to GP-led care with Oncokompas. Median follow-up was 12·2 months (IQR 12·0-13·0) in all groups. At baseline, QOL was high in all trial groups. At 12 months, there was no clinically meaningful difference in change from baseline in QOL between the GP-led care groups and the surgeon-led care groups (difference in summary score -2·3 [95% CI -5·0 to 0·4]) or between the Oncokompas and no Oncokompas groups (-0·1 [-2·8 to 2·6]). INTERPRETATION: In terms of QOL, GP-led survivorship care can be considered as an alternative to surgeon-led care within the first year after colon cancer treatment. Other outcomes, including patient and physician preferences, will be important for decisions about the type of survivorship care. FUNDING: Dutch Cancer Society (KWF).

Evaluation of general practitioners' single-lead electrocardiogram interpretation skills: a case-vignette study.

BACKGROUND: Handheld single-lead electrocardiograms (1L-ECG) present a welcome addition to the diagnostic arsenal of general practitioners (GPs). However, little is known about GPs' 1L-ECG interpretation skills, and thus its reliability in real-world practice. OBJECTIVE: To determine the diagnostic accuracy of GPs in diagnosing atrial fibrillation or flutter (AF/Afl) based on 1L-ECGs, with and without the aid of automatic algorithm interpretation, as well as other relevant ECG abnormalities. METHODS: We invited 2239 Dutch GPs for an online case-vignette study. GPs were asked to interpret four 1L-ECGs, randomly drawn from a pool of 80 case-vignettes. These vignettes were obtained from a primary care study that used smartphone-operated 1L-ECG recordings using the AliveCor KardiaMobile. Interpretation of all 1L-ECGs by a panel of cardiologists was used as reference standard. RESULTS: A total of 457 (20.4%) GPs responded and interpreted a total of 1613 1L-ECGs. Sensitivity and specificity for AF/Afl (prevalence 13%) were 92.5% (95% CI: 82.5-97.0%) and 89.8% (95% CI: 85.5-92.9%), respectively. PPV and NPV for AF/Afl were 45.7% (95% CI: 22.4-70.9%) and 98.8% (95% CI: 97.1-99.5%), respectively. GP interpretation skills did not improve in case-vignettes where the outcome of automatic AF-detection algorithm was provided. In detecting any relevant ECG abnormality (prevalence 22%), sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV were 96.3% (95% CI: 92.8-98.2%), 68.8% (95% CI: 62.4-74.6%), 43.9% (95% CI: 27.7-61.5%) and 97.9% (95% CI: 94.9-99.1%), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: GPs can safely rule out cardiac arrhythmias with 1L-ECGs. However, whenever an abnormality is suspected, confirmation by an expert-reader is warranted.

ICU Survivors Have a Substantial Higher Risk of Developing New Chronic Conditions Compared to a Population-Based Control Group.

OBJECTIVES: To describe the types and prevalence of chronic conditions in an ICU population and a population-based control group during the year before ICU admission and to quantify the risk of developing new chronic conditions in ICU patients compared with the control group. DESIGN: We conducted a retrospective cohort study, combining a national health insurance claims database and a national quality registry for ICUs. Claims data in the timeframe 2012-2014 were combined with clinical data of patients who had been admitted to an ICU during 2013. To assess the differences in risk of developing new chronic conditions, ICU patients were compared with a population-based control group using logistic regression modeling. SETTING: Eighty-one Dutch ICUs. PATIENTS: All patients admitted to an ICU during 2013. A population-based control group was created, and weighted on the age, gender, and socio-economic status of the ICU population. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: ICU patients (n = 56,760) have more chronic conditions compared with the control group (n = 75,232) during the year before ICU admission (p < 0.0001). After case-mix adjustment ICU patients had a higher risk of developing chronic conditions, with odds ratios ranging from 1.67 (CI, 1.29-2.17) for asthma to 24.35 (CI, 14.00-42.34) for epilepsy, compared with the control group. CONCLUSIONS: Due to the high prevalence of chronic conditions and the increased risk of developing new chronic conditions, ICU follow-up care is advised and may focus on the identification and treatment of the new developed chronic conditions.

General practitioners' involvement during survivorship care of colon cancer in the Netherlands: primary health care utilization during survivorship care of colon cancer, a prospective multicentre cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Primary health care use increases when cancer is diagnosed. This increase continues after cancer treatment. More generalist care is suggested to improve survivorship care. It is unknown to what extent cancer-related symptoms are currently presented in primary care in this survivorship phase. OBJECTIVE: To analyse primary health care utilization of colon cancer patients during and after treatment with curative intent. METHODS: In a prospective multicentre cohort study among patients with curatively treated colon cancer, we describe the primary health care utilization during the first 5 years of follow-up. Data were collected at general practitioner (GP) practices during 6 months. RESULTS: Of 183 included participants, 153 (84%) consulted their GP resulting in 606 contacts (mean 3.3, standard deviation 3.01) with on average 0.9 contact for colon-cancer-related (CCR) problems in the 6-month study period. Median time after surgery at inclusion was 7.6 months (range 0-58). Abdominal pain and chemotherapy-related problems were the most frequently reported CCR reasons. Of the CCR contacts, 83% was managed in primary care. As time after surgery passed, the number of CCR contacts declined in patients without chemotherapy and remained constant in patients who received chemotherapy. CONCLUSION: Colon cancer survivors contact their GP frequently also for reasons related to cancer. Currently, a formal role for GPs in survivorship care is lacking, but nevertheless GPs provide a substantial amount of care. Working agreements between primary and secondary care are necessary to formalize the GP's role in order to improve the quality of survivorship care.

Dementia incidence trend over 1992-2014 in the Netherlands: Analysis of primary care data.

BACKGROUND: Recent reports have suggested declining age-specific incidence rates of dementia in high-income countries over time. Improved education and cardiovascular health in early age have been suggested to be bringing about this effect. The aim of this study was to estimate the age-specific dementia incidence trend in primary care records from a large population in the Netherlands. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A dynamic cohort representative of the Dutch population was composed using primary care records from general practice registration networks (GPRNs) across the country. Data regarding dementia incidence were obtained using general-practitioner-recorded diagnosis of dementia within the electronic health records. Age-specific dementia incidence rates were calculated for all persons aged 60 y and over; negative binomial regression analysis was used to estimate the time trend. Nine out of eleven GPRNs provided data on more than 800,000 older people for the years 1992 to 2014, corresponding to over 4 million person-years and 23,186 incident dementia cases. The annual growth in dementia incidence rate was estimated to be 2.1% (95% CI 0.5% to 3.8%), and incidence rates were 1.08 (95% CI 1.04 to 1.13) times higher for women compared to men. Despite their relatively low numbers of person-years, the highest age groups contributed most to the increasing trend. There was no significant overall change in incidence rates since the start of a national dementia program in 2003 (-0.025; 95% CI -0.062 to 0.011). Increased awareness of dementia by patients and doctors in more recent years may have influenced dementia diagnosis by general practitioners in electronic health records, and needs to be taken into account when interpreting the data. CONCLUSIONS: Within the clinical records of a large, representative sample of the Dutch population, we found no evidence for a declining incidence trend of dementia in the Netherlands. This could indicate true stability in incidence rates, or a balance between increased detection and a true reduction. Irrespective of the exact rates and mechanisms underlying these findings, they illustrate that the burden of work for physicians and nurses in general practice associated with newly diagnosed dementia has not been subject to substantial change in the past two decades. Hence, with the ageing of Western societies, we still need to anticipate a dramatic absolute increase in dementia occurrence over the years to come.

Web-Based Interventions Targeting Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Middle-Aged and Older People: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Web-based interventions can improve single cardiovascular risk factors in adult populations. In view of global aging and the associated increasing burden of cardiovascular disease, older people form an important target population as well. OBJECTIVE: In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we evaluated whether Web-based interventions for cardiovascular risk factor management reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease in older people. METHODS: Embase, Medline, Cochrane and CINAHL were systematically searched from January 1995 to November 2014. Search terms included cardiovascular risk factors and diseases (specified), Web-based interventions (and synonyms) and randomized controlled trial. Two authors independently performed study selection, data-extraction and risk of bias assessment. In a meta-analysis, outcomes regarding treatment effects on cardiovascular risk factors (blood pressure, glycated hemoglobin A1c (HbA1C), low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol, smoking status, weight and physical inactivity) and incident cardiovascular disease were pooled with random effects models. RESULTS: A total of 57 studies (N=19,862) fulfilled eligibility criteria and 47 studies contributed to the meta-analysis. A significant reduction in systolic blood pressure (mean difference -2.66 mmHg, 95% CI -3.81 to -1.52), diastolic blood pressure (mean difference -1.26 mmHg, 95% CI -1.92 to -0.60), HbA1c level (mean difference -0.13%, 95% CI -0.22 to -0.05), LDL cholesterol level (mean difference -2.18 mg/dL, 95% CI -3.96 to -0.41), weight (mean difference -1.34 kg, 95% CI -1.91 to -0.77), and an increase of physical activity (standardized mean difference 0.25, 95% CI 0.10-0.39) in the Web-based intervention group was found. The observed effects were more pronounced in studies with short (<12 months) follow-up and studies that combined the Internet application with human support (blended care). No difference in incident cardiovascular disease was found between groups (6 studies). CONCLUSIONS: Web-based interventions have the potential to improve the cardiovascular risk profile of older people, but the effects are modest and decline with time. Currently, there is insufficient evidence for an effect on incident cardiovascular disease. A focus on long-term effects, clinical endpoints, and strategies to increase sustainability of treatment effects is recommended for future studies.

Measuring renewed expertise for integrated care among health- and social-care professionals: Development and preliminary validation of the ICE-Q questionnaire.

Accumulations of health and social problems challenge current health systems. It is hypothesized that professionals should renew their expertise by adapting generalist, coaching, and population health orientation capacities to address these challenges. This study aimed to develop and validate an instrument for evaluating this renewal of professional expertise. The (Dutch) Integrated Care Expertise Questionnaire (ICE-Q) was developed and piloted. Psychometric analysis evaluated item, criterion, construct, and content validity. Theory and an iterative process of expert consultation constructed the ICE-Q, which was sent to 616 professionals, of whom 294 participated in the pilot (47.7%). Factor analysis (FA) identified six areas of expertise: holistic attitude towards patients (Cronbach's alpha [CA] = 0.61) and considering their social context (CA = 0.77), both related to generalism; coaching to support patient empowerment (CA = 0.66); preventive action (CA = 0.48); valuing local health knowledge (CA = 0.81); and valuing local facility knowledge (CA = 0.67) point at population health orientation. Inter-scale correlations ranged between 0.01 and 0.34. Item-response theory (IRT) indicated some items were less informative. The resulting 26-item questionnaire is a first tool for measuring integrated care expertise. The study process led to a developed understanding of the concept. Further research is warranted to improve the questionnaire.

Antihypertensive medication classes and risk of incident dementia in primary care patients: a longitudinal cohort study in the Netherlands.

Background: Hypertension is a modifiable risk factor for dementia affecting over 70% of individuals older than 60. Lowering dementia risk through preferential treatment with antihypertensive medication (AHM) classes that are otherwise equivalent in indication could offer a cost-effective, safe, and accessible approach to reducing dementia incidence globally. Certain AHM-classes have been associated with lower dementia risk, potentially attributable to angiotensin-II-receptor (Ang-II) stimulating properties. Previous study results have been inconclusive, possibly due to heterogeneous methodology and limited power. We aimed to comprehensively investigate associations between AHM (sub-)classes and dementia risk using large-scale continuous, real-world prescription and outcome data from primary care. Methods: We used data from three Dutch General Practice Registration Networks. Primary endpoints were clinical diagnosis of incident all-cause dementia and mortality. Using Cox regression analysis with time-dependent covariates, we compared the use of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEi) to angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs), beta blockers, calcium channel blockers (CCBs), and diuretics; and Ang-II-stimulating- to Ang-II-inhibiting AHM. Findings: Of 133,355 AHM-using participants, 5877 (4.4%) developed dementia, and 14,079 (10.6%) died during a median follow-up of 7.6 [interquartile range = 4.1-11.0] years. Compared to ACEi, ARBs [HR = 0.86 (95% CI = 0.80-0.92)], beta blockers [HR = 0.81 (95% CI = 0.75-0.87)], CCBs [HR = 0.77 (95% CI = 0.71-0.84)], and diuretics [HR = 0.65 (95% CI = 0.61-0.70)] were associated with significantly lower dementia risks. Regarding competing risk of death, beta blockers [HR = 1.21 (95% CI = 1.15-1.27)] and diuretics [HR = 1.69 (95% CI = 1.60-1.78)] were associated with higher, CCBs with similar, and ARBs with lower [HR = 0.83 (95% CI = 0.80-0.87)] mortality risk. Dementia [HR = 0.88 (95% CI = 0.82-0.95)] and mortality risk [HR = 0.86 (95% CI = 0.82-0.91)] were lower for Ang-II-stimulating versus Ang-II-inhibiting AHM. There were no interactions with sex, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and number of AHM used. Interpretation: Among patients receiving AHM, ARBs, CCBs, and Ang-II-stimulating AHM were associated with lower dementia risk, without excess mortality explaining these results. Extensive subgroup and sensitivity analyses suggested that confounding by indication did not importantly influence our findings. Dementia risk may be influenced by AHM-classes' angiotensin-II-receptor stimulating properties. An RCT comparing BP treatment with different AHM classes with dementia as outcome is warranted. Funding: Netherlands Organisation for Health, Research and Development (ZonMw); Stoffels-Hornstra Foundation.

Dietary patterns within a population are more reproducible than those of individuals.

Insight into the stability of dietary behavior over time is important, because only a single measurement of diet is often available to study the association between eating behavior and the occurrence of chronic diseases many years after baseline data collection. Little is known about changes in dietary patterns over time. The current study examined the (internal) stability and reproducibility of dietary patterns and the transition of individuals between patterns over time from 3 surveys within one study population by using cluster analysis. The dietary intake of participants in the Doetinchem Cohort Study in 6113, 4916, and 4520 adults in 1993-1997, 1998-2002, and 2003-2007, respectively, was measured using a validated food-frequency questionnaire. Stability and reproducibility of dietary patterns were studied by examining the optimal number of clusters per survey by comparing the contribution of food groups to total energy intake within the clusters over time and by studying transitions of individuals between clusters over time. A low-fiber bread pattern and a high-fiber bread pattern were identified in all 3 surveys. Over time, dietary patterns were comparable in terms of foods contributing most to total energy intake, suggesting good reproducibility. Nevertheless, only 41.8% of the participants were consistently assigned to the same dietary pattern for all 3 surveys. This implies that, over time, similar dietary patterns were found at the group level, but that ignoring individual transitions between dietary patterns during follow-up may lead to misclassification of a large proportion of the study population.

Screening South Asians for type 2 diabetes and prediabetes: (1) comparing oral glucose tolerance and haemoglobin A1c test results and (2) comparing the two sets of metabolic profiles of individuals diagnosed with these two tests.

BACKGROUND: The glycated haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) level may be used for screening for type 2 diabetes and prediabetes instead of a more burdensome oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT). However, among the high-risk South Asian population, little is known about the overlap of the methods or about the metabolic profiles of those disconcordantly diagnosed. METHODS: We included 944 South Asians (18-60 years old), whom we screened with the HbA1c level and the OGTT in The Hague, the Netherlands. We calculated the area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve (AUROC) with a 95% confidence interval of HbA1c using the American Diabetes Association classifications, and determined the sensitivity and specificity with 95% confidence intervals at different thresholds. Moreover, we studied differences in metabolic characteristics between those identified by HbA1c and by the OGTT alone. RESULTS: The overlap between HbA1c and OGTT classifications was partial, both for diabetes and prediabetes. The AUROC of HbA1c for OGTT defined diabetes was 0.86 (0.79-0.93). The sensitivity was 0.46 (0.29-0.63); the specificity 0.98 (0.98-0.99). For prediabetes, the AUROC was 0.73 (0.69-0.77). Each of the 31 individuals with diabetes and 353 with prediabetes identified with the HbA1c level had a high body mass index, large waist circumference, high blood pressure, and low insulin sensitivity, all of which were similar to the values shown by those among the 19 with diabetes or 62 with prediabetes who only met the OGTT criteria, but not the HbA1c criteria. CONCLUSIONS: The HbA1c level identified a partially different group than the OGTT did. However, both those identified with the HbA1c level and those identified with the OGTT alone were at increased metabolic risk. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Dutch Trial Register: NTR1499.

Detection of colon cancer recurrences during follow-up care by general practitioners vs surgeons.

BACKGROUND: In the I CARE study, colon cancer patients were randomly assigned to receive follow-up care from either a general practitioner (GP) or a surgeon. Here, we address a secondary outcome, namely, detection of recurrences and effect on time to detection of transferring care from surgeon to GP. METHODS: Pattern, stage, and treatment of recurrences were described after 3 years. Time to event was defined as date of surgery, until date of recurrence or last follow-up, with death as competing event. Effects on time to recurrence and death were estimated as hazard ratios (HRs) using Cox regression. Restricted mean survival times were estimated. RESULTS: Of 303 patients, 141 were randomly assigned to the GP and 162 to the surgeon. Patients were male (67%) with a mean age of 68.0 (8.4) years. During follow-up, 46 recurrences were detected; 18 (13%) in the GP vs 28 (17%) in the surgeon group. Most recurrences were detected via abnormal follow-up tests (74%) and treated with curative intent (59%). Hazard ratio for recurrence was 0.75 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.41 to 1.36) in GP vs surgeon group. Patients in the GP group remained in the disease-free state slightly longer (2.76 vs 2.71 years). Of the patients, 38 died during follow-up; 15 (11%) in the GP vs 23 (14%) in the surgeon group. Of these, 21 (55%) deaths were related to colon cancer. There were no differences in overall deaths between the groups (HR = 0.76, 95% CI = 0.39 to 1.46). CONCLUSION: Follow-up provided by GPs vs surgeons leads to similar detection of recurrences. Also, no differences in mortality were found.

Year-by-Year Blood Pressure Variability From Midlife to Death and Lifetime Dementia Risk.

Importance: High visit-to-visit blood pressure variability (BPV) in late life may reflect increased dementia risk better than mean systolic blood pressure (SBP). Evidence from midlife to late life could be crucial to understanding this association. Objective: To determine whether visit-to-visit BPV at different ages was differentially associated with lifetime incident dementia risk in community-dwelling individuals. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study analyzed data from the Adult Changes in Thought (ACT) study, an ongoing population-based prospective cohort study in the US. Participants were 65 years or older at enrollment, community-dwelling, and without dementia. The study focused on a subset of deceased participants with brain autopsy data and whose midlife to late-life blood pressure data were obtained from Kaiser Permanente Washington medical archives and collected as part of the postmortem brain donation program. In the ACT study, participants underwent biennial medical assessments, including cognitive screening. Data were collected from 1994 (ACT study enrollment) through November 2019 (data set freeze). Data analysis was performed between March 2020 and September 2023. Exposures: Visit-by-visit BPV at ages 60, 70, 80, and 90 years, calculated using the coefficient of variation of year-by-year SBP measurements over the preceding 10 years. Main Outcomes and Measures: All-cause dementia, which was adjudicated by a multidisciplinary outcome adjudication committee. Results: A total of 820 participants (mean [SD] age at enrollment, 77.0 [6.7] years) were analyzed and included 476 females (58.0%). A mean (SD) of 28.4 (8.4) yearly SBP measurements were available over 31.5 (9.0) years. The mean (SD) follow-up time was 32.2 (9.1) years in 27 885 person-years from midlife to death. Of the participants, 372 (45.4%) developed dementia. The number of participants who were alive without dementia and had available data for analysis ranged from 280 of those aged 90 years to 702 of those aged 70 years. Higher BPV was not associated with higher lifetime dementia risk at age 60, 70, or 80 years. At age 90 years, BPV was associated with 35% higher dementia risk (hazard ratio [HR], 1.35; 95% CI, 1.02-1.79). Meta-regression of HRs calculated separately for each age (60-90 years) indicated that associations of high BPV with higher dementia risk were present only at older ages, whereas the association of SBP with dementia gradually shifted direction linearly from being incrementally to inversely associated with older ages. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, high BPV indicated increased lifetime dementia risk in late life but not in midlife. This result suggests that high BPV may indicate increased dementia risk in older age but might be less viable as a midlife dementia prevention target.

Effectiveness of a web-based health risk assessment with individually-tailored feedback on lifestyle behaviour: study protocol.

BACKGROUND: Physical inactivity, unhealthy dietary habits, smoking and high alcohol consumption are recognized risk factors for cardiovascular disease and cancer. Web-based health risk assessments with tailored feedback seem promising in promoting a healthy lifestyle. This study evaluates the effectiveness of a web-based health risk assessment with individually-tailored feedback on lifestyle behaviour, conducted in a worksite setting. METHODS/DESIGN: The web-based health risk assessment starts with a questionnaire covering socio-demographic variables, family and personal medical history, lifestyle behaviour and psychological variables. Prognostic models are used to estimate individual cardiovascular risks. In case of high risk further biometric and laboratory evaluation is advised. All participants receive individually-tailored feedback on their responses to the health risk assessment questionnaire. The study uses a quasi-experimental design with a waiting list control group. Data are collected at baseline (T0) and after six months (T1). Within each company, clusters of employees are allocated to either the intervention or the control group. Primary outcome is lifestyle behaviour, expressed as the sum of five indicators namely physical activity, nutrition, smoking behaviour, alcohol consumption, and symptoms of burnout. Multilevel regression analysis will be used to answer the main research question and to correct for clustering effects. Baseline differences between the intervention and control group in the distribution of characteristics with a potential effect on lifestyle change will be taken into account in further analyses using propensity scores. DISCUSSION: This study will increase insight into the effectiveness of health risk assessments with tailored feedback and into conditions that may modify the effectiveness. This information can be used to design effective interventions for lifestyle behaviour change among employees. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Dutch Trial Register NTR8148.

Intestinal permeability in irritable bowel syndrome patients: effects of NSAIDs.

Intestinal permeability and the effect of NSAIDs on permeability were investigated in 14 irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) patients and 15 healthy subjects. In the study, 24-h urinary recoveries of orally administered polyethylene glycols (PEGs 400, 1500, and 4000) were not significantly different in healthy subjects and IBS patients before or after NSAID ingestion. Lactulose mannitol ratios in healthy subjects and IBS patients were not significantly different. Only time-dependent monitoring of PEG excretion showed that NSAIDs enhanced intestinal permeability for PEG 4000 in healthy subjects (P = 0.050) and for PEGs 400, 1500, and 4000 in IBS patients (P = 0.012, P = 0.041, and P = 0.012, respectively). These results show that intestinal permeability in IBS patients is not different from that in healthy subjects; NSAIDs compromise intestinal permeability in IBS patients to a greater extent than in healthy subjects, which suggests that IBS is associated with an altered response of the intestinal barrier to noxious agents.

The influence of clinical variables on the risk of developing chronic conditions in ICU survivors.

PURPOSE: To assess the association of clinical variables and the development of specified chronic conditions in ICU survivors. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A retrospective cohort study, combining a national health insurance claims database and a national quality registry for ICUs. Claims data from 2012 to 2014 were combined with clinical data of patients admitted to an ICU during 2013. To assess the association of clinical variables (ICU length of stay, mechanical ventilation, acute physiology score, reason for ICU admission, mean arterial pressure score and glucose score) and the development of chronic conditions (i.e. heart diseases, COPD or asthma, Diabetes mellitus type II, depression and kidney diseases), logistic regression was used. RESULTS: 49,004 ICU patients were included. ICU length of stay was associated with the development of heart diseases, asthma or COPD and depression. The reason for ICU admission was an important risk factor for the development of all chronic conditions with adjusted ORs ranging from 2.05 (CI 1.56; 2.69) for kidney diseases to 5.14 (CI 3.99; 6.62) for depression. CONCLUSIONS: Clinical variables, especially the reason for ICU admission, are associated with the development of chronic conditions after ICU discharge. Therefore, these clinical variables should be considered when organizing follow-up care for ICU survivors.

A cardiovascular risk prediction model for older people: Development and validation in a primary care population.

Cardiovascular risk prediction is mainly based on traditional risk factors that have been validated in middle-aged populations. However, associations between these risk factors and cardiovascular disease (CVD) attenuate with increasing age. Therefore, for older people the authors developed and internally validated risk prediction models for fatal and non-fatal CVD, (re)evaluated the predictive value of traditional and new factors, and assessed the impact of competing risks of non-cardiovascular death. Post hoc analyses of 1811 persons aged 70-78 year and free from CVD at baseline from the preDIVA study (Prevention of Dementia by Intensive Vascular care, 2006-2015), a primary care-based trial that included persons free from dementia and conditions likely to hinder successful long-term follow-up, were performed. In 2017-2018, Cox-regression analyses were performed for a model including seven traditional risk factors only, and a model to assess incremental predictive ability of the traditional and eleven new factors. Analyses were repeated accounting for competing risk of death, using Fine-Gray models. During an average of 6.2 years of follow-up, 277 CVD events occurred. Age, sex, smoking, and type 2 diabetes mellitus were traditional predictors for CVD, whereas total cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol, and systolic blood pressure (SBP) were not. Of the eleven new factors, polypharmacy and apathy symptoms were predictors. Discrimination was moderate (concordance statistic 0.65). Accounting for competing risks resulted in slightly smaller predicted absolute risks. In conclusion, we found, SBP, HDL, and total cholesterol no longer predict CVD in older adults, whereas polypharmacy and apathy symptoms are two new relevant predictors. Building on the selected risk factors in this study may improve CVD prediction in older adults and facilitate targeting preventive interventions to those at high risk.