Assessment of risk to wildlife from ionising radiation: can initial screening tiers be used with a high level of confidence?

A number of models are being used to assess the potential environmental impact of releases of radioactivity. These often use a tiered assessment structure whose first tier is designed to be highly conservative and simple to use. An aim of using this initial tier is to identify sites of negligible concern and to remove them from further consideration with a high degree of confidence. In this paper we compare the screening assessment outputs of three freely available models. The outputs of these models varied considerably in terms of estimated risk quotient (RQ) and the radionuclide-organism combinations identified as being the most limiting. A number of factors are identified as contributing to this variability: values of transfer parameters (concentration ratios and K(d)) used; organisms considered; different input options and how these are utilised in the assessment; assumptions as regards secular equilibrium; geometries and exposure scenarios. This large variation in RQ values between models means that the level of confidence required by users is not achieved. We recommend that the factors contributing to the variation in screening assessments be subjected to further investigation so that they can be more fully understood and assessors (and those reviewing assessment outputs) can better justify and evaluate the results obtained.

A multi-criteria weight of evidence approach for deriving ecological benchmarks for radioactive substances.

Dose rate benchmarks are required in the tiered approaches used to screen out benign exposure scenarios in radiological ecological risk assessment. Such screening benchmarks, namely the predicted no-effect dose rates (PNEDR), have been derived by applying, as far as possible, the European guidance developed for chemicals. To derive the ecosystem level (or generic) PNEDR, radiotoxicity EDR(10) data (dose rates giving a 10% effect in comparison with the control) were used to fit a species sensitivity distribution (SSD) and estimate the HDR(5) (the hazardous dose rate affecting 5% of species with a 10% effect). Then, a multi-criteria approach was developed to justify using an assessment factor (AF) to apply to the HDR(5) for estimating a PNEDR value. Several different statistical data treatments were considered which all gave reasonably similar results. The suggested generic screening value of 10 microGy h(-1) (incremental dose rate) was derived using the lowest available EDR(10) value per species, an unweighted SSD, and an AF of 2 applied to the estimated HDR(5). Consideration was also given to deriving screening benchmark values for organism groups but this was not thought to be currently appropriate due to few relevant data being currently available.

A review and model assessment of (32)P and (33)P uptake to biota in freshwater systems.

Bioaccumulation of key short-lived radionuclides such as (131)I and (32,33)P may be over-estimated since concentration ratios (CRs) are often based on values for the corresponding stable isotope which do not account for radioactive decay during uptake via the food chain. This study presents estimates for bioaccumulation of radioactive phosphorus which account for both radioactive decay and varying ambient levels of stable P in the environment. Recommended interim CR values for radioactive forms of P as a function of bioavailable stable phosphorus in the water body are presented. Values of CR are presented for three different trophic levels of the aquatic food chain; foodstuffs from all three trophic levels may potentially be consumed by humans. It is concluded that current recommended values of the CR are likely to be significantly over-estimated for radioactive phosphorus in many freshwater systems, particularly lowland rivers. Further research is recommended to field-validate these models and assess their uncertainty. The relative importance of food-chain uptake and direct uptake from water are also assessed from a review of the literature. It can be concluded that food-chain uptake is the dominant accumulation pathway in fish and hence accumulation factors for radioactive phosphorus in farmed fish are likely to be significantly lower than those for wild fish.