Managing offshore multi-use settings: Use of conceptual mapping to reduce uncertainty of co-locating seaweed aquaculture and wind farms.

The offshore Multi-use Setting (MUS) is a concept that aims to co-locate marine industrial activities, including wind farms and aquaculture. MUS is considered an innovative approach to promoting efficiency in space and resource use whilst contributing global policy priorities. However, the impacts of MUS development across social, economic, and environmental domains are uncertain, hindering the commercialisation of the concept. In this study, we initially demonstrate the potential consequences of co-locating seaweed aquaculture and a wind farm as a step towards MUS. Using a hypothetical case study and modified Delphi methodology, 14 subject matter experts predicted potential outcomes across social and environmental objectives. Five Cognitive maps and impact tables of 58 potential consequences were generated based on experts' perspective on co-locating seaweed aquaculture and a wind farm. The findings highlight the potential to exasperate pressures in the area, including those already attributed to wind farm operations, such as species mortality and stakeholder conflict. However, it may also enhance social-ecological conditions, such as resource provisioning and promoting habitat functionality in the region, through the addition of seaweed aquaculture. The cognitive maps demonstrate the complexity of managing MUS implementation, where high degree of variability and uncertainty about the outcomes is present. The findings of this study provide the vital entry point to performing further integrative assessment and modelling approaches, such as probabilistic analysis and simulations, in support of MUS decision-making. The research also strongly recommends alternative strategies in the pursuit of combining seaweed production and wind farms to avoid significant financial (among many other) trade-offs and risks. More broadly, we have found that our approach's ability to visually represent a complex situation while considering multiple objectives could be immensely valuable for other bioeconomy innovations or nature-based solutions. It helps mitigate the potential for expensive investments without a comprehensive evaluation of the associated risks and negative impacts, as necessitated by the principles of sustainability in decision-making.

Multiple New Paralytic Shellfish Toxin Vectors in Offshore North Sea Benthos, a Deep Secret Exposed.

In early 2018, a large easterly storm hit the East Anglian coast of the UK, colloquially known as the 'Beast from the East', which also resulted in mass strandings of benthic organisms. There were subsequent instances of dogs consuming such organisms, leading to illness and, in some cases, fatalities. Epidemiological investigations identified paralytic shellfish toxins (PSTs) as the cause, with toxins present in a range of species and concentrations exceeding 14,000 µg STX eq./kg in the sunstar Crossaster papposus. This study sought to better elucidate the geographic spread of any toxicity and identify any key organisms of concern. During the summers of 2018 and 2019, various species of benthic invertebrates were collected from demersal trawl surveys conducted across a variety of locations in the North Sea. An analysis of the benthic epifauna using two independent PST testing methods identified a 'hot spot' of toxic organisms in the Southern Bight, with a mean toxicity of 449 µg STX eq./kg. PSTs were quantified in sea chervil (Alcyonidium diaphanum), the first known detection in the phylum bryozoan, as well as eleven other new vectors (>50 µg STX eq./kg), namely the opisthobranch Scaphander lignarius, the starfish Anseropoda placenta, Asterias rubens, Luidia ciliaris, Astropecten irregularis and Stichastrella rosea, the brittlestar Ophiura ophiura, the crustaceans Atelecyclus rotundatus and Munida rugosa, the sea mouse Aphrodita aculeata, and the sea urchin Psammechinus miliaris. The two species that showed consistently high PST concentrations were C. papposus and A. diaphanum. Two toxic profiles were identified, with one dominated by dcSTX (decarbamoylsaxitoxin) associated with the majority of samples across the whole sampling region. The second profile occurred only in North-Eastern England and consisted of mostly STX (Saxitoxin) and GTX2 (gonyautoxin 2). Consequently, this study highlights widespread and variable levels of PSTs in the marine benthos, together with the first evidence for toxicity in a large number of new species. These findings highlight impacts to 'One Health', with the unexpected sources of toxins potentially creating risks to animal, human and environmental health, with further work required to assess the severity and geographical/temporal extent of these impacts.

A decline in primary production in the North Sea over 25 years, associated with reductions in zooplankton abundance and fish stock recruitment.

Phytoplankton primary production is at the base of the marine food web; changes in primary production have direct or indirect effects on higher trophic levels, from zooplankton organisms to marine mammals and seabirds. Here, we present a new time-series on gross primary production in the North Sea, from 1988 to 2013, estimated using in situ measurements of chlorophyll and underwater light. This shows that recent decades have seen a significant decline in primary production in the North Sea. Moreover, primary production differs in magnitude between six hydrodynamic regions within the North Sea. Sea surface warming and reduced riverine nutrient inputs are found to be likely contributors to the declining levels of primary production. In turn, significant correlations are found between observed changes in primary production and the dynamics of higher trophic levels including (small) copepods and a standardized index of fish recruitment, averaged over seven stocks of high commercial significance in the North Sea. Given positive (bottom-up) associations between primary production, zooplankton abundance and fish stock recruitment, this study provides strong evidence that if the decline in primary production continues, knock-on effects upon the productivity of fisheries are to be expected unless these fisheries are managed effectively and cautiously.

Decrease in water clarity of the southern and central North Sea during the 20th century.

Light in the marine environment is a key environmental variable coupling physics to marine biogeochemistry and ecology. Weak light penetration reduces light available for photosynthesis, changing energy fluxes through the marine food web. Based on published and unpublished data, this study shows that the central and southern North Sea has become significantly less clear over the second half of the 20th century. In particular, in the different regions and seasons investigated, the average Secchi depth pre-1950 decreased between 25% and 75% compared to the average Secchi depth post-1950. Consequently, in summer pre-1950, most (74%) of the sea floor in the permanently mixed area off East Anglia was within the photic zone. For the last 25+ years, changes in water clarity were more likely driven by an increase in the concentration of suspended sediments, rather than phytoplankton. We suggest that a combination of causes have contributed to this increase in suspended sediments such as changes in sea-bed communities and in weather patterns, decreased sink of sediments in estuaries, and increased coastal erosion. A predicted future increase in storminess (Beniston et al., 2007; Kovats et al., 2014) could enhance the concentration of suspended sediments in the water column and consequently lead to a further decrease in clarity, with potential impacts on phytoplankton production, CO2 fluxes, and fishery production.

Planning and licensing for marine aquaculture.

Marine aquaculture has the potential to increase its contribution to the global food system and provide valuable ecosystem services, but appropriate planning, licensing and regulation systems must be in place to enable sustainable development. At present, approaches vary considerably throughout the world, and several national and regional investigations have highlighted the need for reforms if marine aquaculture is to fulfil its potential. This article aims to map and evaluate the challenges of planning and licensing for growth of sustainable marine aquaculture. Despite the range of species, production systems and circumstances, this study found a number of common themes in the literature; complicated and fragmented approaches to planning and licensing, property rights and the licence to operate, competition for space and marine spatial planning, emerging species and diversifying marine aquaculture production (seaweed production, Integrated Multi-Trophic Aquaculture [IMTA], nutrient and carbon offsetting with aquaculture, offshore aquaculture and co-location and multiuse platforms), and the need to address knowledge gaps and use of decision-support tools. Planning and licensing can be highly complicated, so the UK is used as a case study to show more detailed examples that highlight the range of challenges and uncertainty that industry, regulators and policymakers face across interacting jurisdictions. There are many complexities, but this study shows that many countries have undergone, or are undergoing, similar challenges, suggesting that lessons can be learned by sharing knowledge and experiences, even across different species and production systems, rather than having a more insular focus.

Predicting the electron requirement for carbon fixation in seas and oceans.

Marine phytoplankton account for about 50% of all global net primary productivity (NPP). Active fluorometry, mainly Fast Repetition Rate fluorometry (FRRf), has been advocated as means of providing high resolution estimates of NPP. However, not measuring CO2-fixation directly, FRRf instead provides photosynthetic quantum efficiency estimates from which electron transfer rates (ETR) and ultimately CO2-fixation rates can be derived. Consequently, conversions of ETRs to CO2-fixation requires knowledge of the electron requirement for carbon fixation (Φe,C, ETR/CO2 uptake rate) and its dependence on environmental gradients. Such knowledge is critical for large scale implementation of active fluorescence to better characterise CO2-uptake. Here we examine the variability of experimentally determined Φe,C values in relation to key environmental variables with the aim of developing new working algorithms for the calculation of Φe,C from environmental variables. Coincident FRRf and (14)C-uptake and environmental data from 14 studies covering 12 marine regions were analysed via a meta-analytical, non-parametric, multivariate approach. Combining all studies, Φe,C varied between 1.15 and 54.2 mol e(-) (mol C)(-1) with a mean of 10.9 ± 6.91 mol e(-) mol C)(-1). Although variability of Φe,C was related to environmental gradients at global scales, region-specific analyses provided far improved predictive capability. However, use of regional Φ e,C algorithms requires objective means of defining regions of interest, which remains challenging. Considering individual studies and specific small-scale regions, temperature, nutrient and light availability were correlated with Φ e,C albeit to varying degrees and depending on the study/region and the composition of the extant phytoplankton community. At the level of large biogeographic regions and distinct water masses, Φ e,C was related to nutrient availability, chlorophyll, as well as temperature and/or salinity in most regions, while light availability was also important in Baltic Sea and shelf waters. The novel Φ e,C algorithms provide a major step forward for widespread fluorometry-based NPP estimates and highlight the need for further studying the natural variability of Φe,C to verify and develop algorithms with improved accuracy.