Effects of ambient air temperature, humidity and rainfall on annual survival of adult little penguins Eudyptula minor in southeastern Australia.

Seabirds are subject to the influences of local climate variables during periods of land-based activities such as breeding and, for some species, moult; particularly if they undergo a catastrophic moult (complete simultaneous moult) as do penguins. We investigated potential relationships between adult penguin survival and land-based climate variables (ambient air temperature, humidity and rainfall) using 46 years of mark-recapture data of little penguins Eudyptula minor gathered at a breeding colony on Phillip Island in southeastern Australia. Our results showed that adult penguin survival had a stronger association with land-based climate variables during the moult period, when birds were unable to go to sea for up to 3 weeks, than during the breeding period, when birds could sacrifice breeding success in favour of survival. Annual adult survival probability was positively associated with humidity during moult and negatively associated with rainfall during moult. Prolonged heat during breeding and moult had a negative association with annual adult survival. Local climate projections suggest increasing days of high temperatures, fewer days of rainfall which will result in more droughts (and by implication, lower humidity) and more extreme rainfall events. All of these predicted climate changes are expected to have a negative impact on adult penguin survival.

Preterm Birth Impacts the Timing and Excursion of Oropharyngeal Structures during Infant Feeding.

Swallowing in mammals requires the precise coordination of multiple oropharyngeal structures, including the palatopharyngeal arch. During a typical swallow, the activity of the palatopharyngeus muscle produces pharyngeal shortening to assist in producing pressure required to swallow and may initiate epiglottal flipping to protect the airway. Most research on the role of the palatopharyngeal arch in swallowing has used pharyngeal manometry, which measures the relative pressures in the oropharynx, but does not quantify the movements of the structures involved in swallowing. In this study, we assessed palatopharyngeal arch and soft palate function by comparing their movements in a healthy population to a pathophysiological population longitudinally through infancy (term versus preterm pigs). In doing so, we test the impact of birth status, postnatal maturation, and their interaction on swallowing. We tracked the three-dimensional (3D) movements of radiopaque beads implanted into relevant anatomical structures and recorded feeding via biplanar high-speed videofluoroscopy. We then calculated the total 3D excursion of the arch and soft palate, the orientation of arch movement, and the timing of maximal arch constriction during each swallow. Soft palate excursion was greater in term infants at both 7 and 17 days postnatal, whereas arch excursion was largely unaffected by birth status. Maximal arch constriction occurred much earlier in preterm pigs relative to term pigs, a result that was consistent across age. There was no effect of postnatal age on arch or soft palate excursion. Preterm and term infants differed in their orientation of arch movement, which most likely reflects both differences in anatomy and differences in feeding posture. Our results suggest that the timing and coordination of oropharyngeal movements may be more important to feeding performance than the movements of isolated structures, and that differences in the neural control of swallowing and its maturation in preterm and term infants may explain preterm swallowing deficits.

Age, sex, density, winter weather, and population crashes in Soay sheep.

Quantifying the impact of density, extrinsic climatic fluctuations, and demography on population fluctuations is a persistent challenge in ecology. We analyzed the effect of these processes on the irregular pattern of population crashes of Soay sheep on the St. Kilda archipelago, United Kingdom. Because the age and sex structure of the population fluctuates independently of population size, and because animals of different age and sex respond in different ways to density and weather, identical weather conditions can result in different dynamics in populations of equal size. In addition, the strength of density-dependent processes is a function of the distribution of weather events. Incorporating demographic heterogeneities into population models can influence dynamics and their response to climate change.

Ants and extrafloral nectaries: no evidence for plant protection in Helichrysum spp. - ant interactions.

Characterstics of Australian endemic Helichrysum bracteratum and H. viscosum suggest that foraging ants act as "guards" of developing flowerheads, protecting capitula from seed predators: (1) extrafloral nectar is secreted from leaves subtending the capitula and from bracts encircling the floral disc during pre- to post-flowering periods; (2) capitula are attended by ants; and, (3) encounters between ants and other capitula visitors, including predispersal seed predators such as Tephritis sp. (Diptera), can be frequent. In experiments to test the ant-guard hypothesis, exclusion of ants from plants increased abundance of other insects on the developing capitula. The difference between ant-access and ant-exclusion treatments was related to ant abundance on the access plants. These effects were statistically significant in spite of the large variation in insect activity between sites and through the season.The increased abundance of insects on capitula following ant-exclusion did not, however, result in significant increases in the number of adult seed predators observed on capitula, the number of immature seed predators in capitula, or capitula damage as estimated between ant-access and exclusion treatments of either H. bracteatum or H. viscosum. Further, the ant-exclusion treatment on H. bracteatum had no significant influence on pollination as measured by seed set or on the degree of parasitism of Tephritis sp. by Megastigmus sp. Site and season most strongly affected numbers of immature seed predators and damage to capitula.We discuss these findings in relation to the ant-guard hypothesis and suggest that generalization of the protection hypothesis to all plants with extrafloral nectaries is premature.

Integration of sapflow velocity to estimate plant water use.

The heat pulse technique provides an estimate of sapflow velocity at one position within the xylem of an individual plant. Previous experience has shown that the velocity profile across the conducting area cannot be assumed to be constant, necessitating several such point estimates for a reasonable characterization of the velocity profile with depth. These point estimates must be integrated over the sapwood conducting area to derive flux. The most common method is to fit a one degree of freedom least-squares polynomial to the point estimates, and then to integrate this equation across the sapwood profile and around the bole. An alternative method is presented based on a weighted average approach. The latter is shown to be a more robust estimator of flux when velocity profiles exhibit large curvatures.

Periodic triggering of an inducible gene for control of a wild population.

A possible method of control for the management of wild populations consists of continual introgression of an inducible transgene by releasing transgenic individuals, with periodic exposure of the population to a trigger. Exposure to the trigger causes death or sterility in carriers of the transgene, but is otherwise benign. We investigate the effectiveness of various strategies for control. We show that suppression of the population density below any pre-specified level is possible using this technique. At the same time we show that too frequent or too efficient exposure to the trigger can select for non-transgenic genotypes at an intensity such that the population density will be largely unaffected by the trigger. Choices for management parameters can ensure that the latter scenario is avoided. We show that releasing individuals carrying the transgene at more than one locus facilitates density control.

On the near-singularity of models for animal recovery data.

Certain probability models sometimes provide poor descriptions when fitted to data by maximum likelihood. We examine one such model for the survival of wild animals, which is fitted to two sets of data. When the model behaves poorly, its expected information matrix, evaluated at the maximum likelihood estimate of parameters, has a 'small' smallest eigenvalue. This is due to the fitted model being similar to a parameter-redundant submodel. In this case, model parameters that are precisely estimated have small coefficients in the eigenvector corresponding to the smallest eigenvalue. Approximate algebraic expressions are provided for the smallest eigenvalue. We discuss the general applicability of these results.

The analysis of ring-recovery data using random effects.

We show how random terms, describing both yearly variation and overdispersion, can easily be incorporated into models for mark-recovery data, through the use of Bayesian methods. For recovery data on lapwings, we show that the incorporation of the random terms greatly improves the goodness of fit. Omitting the random terms can lead to overestimation of the significance of weather on survival, and overoptimistic prediction intervals in simulations of future population behavior. Random effects models provide a natural way of modeling overdispersion-which is more satisfactory than the standard classical approach of scaling up all standard errors by a uniform inflation factor. We compare models by means of Bayesian p-values and the deviance information criterion (DIC).

Abalone I: analyzing mark-recapture-recovery data incorporating growth and delayed recovery.

Abalone are semimobile marine gastropods that form the basis of Australia's second most valuable fishery. A site off the coast of Port Arthur, Tasmania, was visited on six occasions. On each occasion, any unmarked live abalone found were marked with a unique identification number and were recorded. Any previously marked abalone found had its identification number and whether or not it was still alive recorded. This results in integrated mark-recapture-recovery data, as in Catchpole et al. (1998, Biometrics 54, 33-46). During the study period, abalone grew in size, and we model the survival of individuals as a function of their size, estimated from a fitted growth curve. The shells of dead animals are long lasting, and we extend existing methodology to allow for the possibility that an animal found dead may have been dead but overlooked for several visits.

On the Bayesian analysis of ring-recovery data.

Vounatsou and Smith (1995, Biometrics 51, 687-708) describe the modern Bayesian analysis of ring-recovery data. Here we discuss and extend their work. We draw different conclusions from two major data analyses. We emphasize the extreme sensitivity of certain parameter estimates to the choice of prior distribution and conclude that naive use of Bayesian methods in this area can be misleading. Additionally, we explain the discrepancy between the Bayesian and classical analyses when the likelihood surface has a flat ridge. In this case, when there is no unique maximum likelihood estimate, the Bayesian estimators are remarkably precise.

The effect of 7 to 8 months of vitamin/mineral supplementation on the vitamin and mineral status of athletes.

Blood indicators of eight vitamins (B1, B2, B6, C, E, A, B12, folate) and six minerals (Cu, Mg, Zn, Ca, P, Al) were measured in 86 athletes before and after a 7- to 8-month period of training. During this period half consumed a multivitamin/mineral supplement and a matched group took a placebo. Following the supplementation period, blood biochemical indicators of B1, B6, B12, and folate status all increased but there were no significant effects of supplementation on B2, C, E, and A, or on the blood levels of any of the minerals. The supplementation had no effect on red or white cell counts or on hemoglobin levels. Irrespective of the supplementation, some blood measures varied according to sex, females evidencing significantly higher values than males for vitamins C, E, copper, magnesium, and aluminium, with B2 being higher in males. It is concluded that 7 to 8 months of multivitamin/mineral supplementation increased the blood nutritional status of some vitamins but did not affect any blood mineral levels, and that some blood nutritional indicators may vary according to sex.

The effect of 7 to 8 months of vitamin/mineral supplementation on athletic performance.

The effect of vitamin and mineral supplementation was studied over 7 to 8 months of training and competition in 82 athletes from four sports: basketball, gymnastics, rowing, and swimming. Matched subgroups were formed and a double-blind design used, with subgroups being given either the supplementation or a placebo. All athletes were monitored to ensure that the recommended daily intakes (RDI) of vitamins and minerals were provided by diet alone. Sport-specific and some common tests of strength as well as aerobic and anaerobic fitness were performed. Coaches' assessment of improvement was also obtained. The only significant effect of supplementation was observed in the female basketball players, in which the supplementation was associated with increased body weight, skinfold sum, and jumping ability. A significant increase in skinfold sum was also demonstrated over the whole group as a result of supplementation. In general, however, this study provided little evidence of any effect of supplementation to athletic performance for athletes consuming the dietary RDIs.

Integrating mark-recapture-recovery and census data to estimate animal abundance and demographic parameters.

In studies of wild animals, one frequently encounters both census and mark-recapture-recovery data. We show how a state-space model for census data in combination with the usual multinomial-based models for ring-recovery data provide estimates of productivity not available from either type of data alone. The approach is illustrated on two British bird species. For the lapwing, we calibrate how its recent decline could be due to a decrease in productivity. For the heron, there is no evidence for a decline in productivity, and the combined analysis increases significantly the strength of logistic regressions of survival on winter severity.

Plasma ferritin concentration and physical work capacity in athletes.

This investigation aimed to determine whether the physical work capacity of nonanemic athletes could be improved when plasma ferritin concentrations of below 30 ng/ml were raised at least 15 ng/ml. The experimental group consisted of 15 training athletes, each of whose plasma ferritin concentration was less than 30 ng/ml (mean and SD of 19.8 +/- 8.4 ng/ml). In a control group of 16, each was measured with a plasma ferritin concentration of more than 40 ng/ml (mean and SD of 83.3 +/- 37.6 ng/ml). All participated in submaximal and maximal tests for aerobic and anaerobic power. Following iron supplementation, plasma ferritin concentration in each experimental subject increased by at least 15 ng/ml to more than 30 ng/ml, to a new mean of 46.3 +/- 15.5 ng/ml. The performance measures were also repeated, but no significant overall effects were associated with the increased plasma ferritin concentrations. These data provide no sound evidence that physical work capacity of athletes is enhanced when plasma ferritin concentrations of around 20 ng/ml are increased by at least 15 ng/ml.