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BACKGROUND: A current recommendation for the treatment of patients with locoregionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) is conventional fractionated radiotherapy (RT) with concurrent cisplatin followed by adjuvant cisplatin and 5-fluorouracil (PF). This randomized NPC-0501 trial evaluated the therapeutic effect of changing to an induction-concurrent sequence or accelerated-fractionation sequence, and/or replacing 5-fluorouracil with capecitabine (X). METHODS: Patients with American Joint Committee on Cancer/International Union Against Cancer stage III to stage IVB NPC initially were randomly allocated to 1 of 6 treatment arms (6-arm full-randomization cohort). The protocol was amended in 2009 to permit centers to opt out of randomization regarding fractionation (3-arm chemotherapy cohort). RESULTS: A total of 803 patients were accrued (1 of whom was nonevaluable) from 2006 to 2012. Based on the overall comparisons, neither changing the chemotherapy sequence nor accelerated fractionation improved treatment outcome. However, secondary analyses demonstrated that when adjusted for RT parameters and other significant factors, the induction-concurrent sequence, especially the induction-PX regimen, achieved significant improvements in progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival. Efficacy varied among different RT groups: although no impact was observed in the accelerated-fractionation group and the 3-arm chemotherapy cohort, a comparison of the induction-concurrent versus concurrent-adjuvant sequence in the conventional-fractionation group demonstrated a significant benefit in PFS (78% vs 62% at 5 years; P = .015) and a marginal benefit in overall survival (84% vs 72%; P = .042) after adjusting for multiple comparisons. Comparison of the induction-PX versus the adjuvant-PF regimen demonstrated better PFS (78% vs 62%; P = .027) without an increase in overall late toxicity. CONCLUSIONS: For patients irradiated using conventional fractionation, changing the chemotherapy sequence from a concurrent-adjuvant to an induction-concurrent sequence, particularly using induction cisplatin and capecitabine, potentially could improve efficacy without an adverse impact on late toxicity. However, further validation is needed for confirmation of these findings.
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Carcinoma Nasofaríngeo/tratamiento farmacológico , Carcinoma Nasofaríngeo/radioterapia , Recurrencia Local de Neoplasia/tratamiento farmacológico , Recurrencia Local de Neoplasia/radioterapia , Adolescente , Adulto , Anciano , Capecitabina/administración & dosificación , Capecitabina/efectos adversos , Quimioradioterapia/efectos adversos , Supervivencia sin Enfermedad , Fraccionamiento de la Dosis de Radiación , Femenino , Fluorouracilo/administración & dosificación , Fluorouracilo/efectos adversos , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Carcinoma Nasofaríngeo/patología , Recurrencia Local de Neoplasia/patología , Estadificación de Neoplasias , Supervivencia sin Progresión , Resultado del Tratamiento , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
Randomization is a common technique used in clinical trials to eliminate potential bias and confounders in a patient population. Equal allocation to treatment groups is the standard due to its optimal efficiency in many cases. However, in certain scenarios, unequal allocation can improve efficiency. In superiority trials with more than two groups, the optimal randomization is not always a balanced randomization. In noninferiority (NI) trials, additive margin with equal variance is the http://www.statlab.wisc.edu/shiny/SSNI/.
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Distribución Aleatoria , Sesgo , HumanosRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Concurrent-adjuvant chemoradiotherapy (CRT) became a recommended treatment for locoregionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) with the first report of a significant survival benefit from the Intergroup 0099 study. However, data on late toxicities are lacking. Previous reports from the current NPC-9901 trial have raised concerns about a failure to improve overall survival (OS) because of an inadequate impact on distant control and increases in toxicities/noncancer deaths. Validation of the long-term therapeutic ratio is needed. METHODS: In this phase 3, randomized trial, patients with nonkeratinizing NPC (stage T1-4/N2-3/M0) were randomly assigned to radiotherapy alone (176 patients) or to CRT (172 patients) with concurrent cisplatin followed by adjuvant cisplatin plus fluorouracil. RESULTS: The early findings of significant improvements in tumor control were maintained: the CRT group achieved significantly higher 10-year overall failure-free (62% vs 50%; P = .01) and progression-free survival rates (56% vs 42%; P = .006) because of superior locoregional control (87% vs 74%; P = .003), whereas the impact on distant control remained insignificant (68% vs 65%; P = .24). The initial differences in toxicities diminished with longer follow-up: 52% versus 47% at 10 years for late toxicities (P = .20), 4.1% versus 2.8% for deaths due to treatment toxicity, and 15.1% versus 13.1% for deaths due to incidental/unknown causes. The OS rate for the CRT group reached statistical superiority at 10 years (62% vs 49%; P = .047). CONCLUSIONS: Long-term results have confirmed that CRT can significantly improve OS without excessive late toxicities for patients with regionally advanced NPC. However, more potent therapy is needed for improving distant control, especially for patients with stage IVA/B disease. Cancer 2017;123:4147-4157. © 2017 American Cancer Society.
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Carcinoma/mortalidad , Carcinoma/terapia , Quimioradioterapia Adyuvante/mortalidad , Neoplasias Nasofaríngeas/mortalidad , Neoplasias Nasofaríngeas/terapia , Protocolos de Quimioterapia Combinada Antineoplásica/efectos adversos , Protocolos de Quimioterapia Combinada Antineoplásica/uso terapéutico , Carcinoma/patología , Quimioradioterapia Adyuvante/efectos adversos , Quimioterapia Adyuvante/efectos adversos , Quimioterapia Adyuvante/mortalidad , Cisplatino/administración & dosificación , Supervivencia sin Enfermedad , Esquema de Medicación , Fluorouracilo/administración & dosificación , Humanos , Carcinoma Nasofaríngeo , Neoplasias Nasofaríngeas/patología , Radioterapia/efectos adversos , Factores de TiempoRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEIs) and angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs) are commonly used antihypertensive medications that have been reported to affect aberrant angiogenesis and the dysregulated inflammatory response. Because of such mechanisms, it was hypothesized that these medications might affect the tumor response to neoadjuvant radiation in patients with rectal cancer. METHODS: One hundred fifteen patients who were treated with neoadjuvant radiation at the University of Wisconsin (UW) between 1999 and 2012 were identified. Univariate analyses were performed with anonymized patient data. In a second independent data set, 186 patients with rectal cancer who were treated with neoadjuvant radiation at the Queen's Medical Center of the University of Hawaii (UH) between 1995 and 2010 were identified. These data were independently analyzed as before. Multivariate analyses were performed with aggregate data. RESULTS: Among patients taking ACEIs/ARBs in the UW data set, a significant 3-fold increase in the rate of pathologic complete response (pCR) to neoadjuvant therapy (52% vs 17%, P = .001) was observed. This finding was confirmed in the UH data set, in which a significant 2-fold-increased pCR rate (24% vs 12%, P = .03) was observed. Identified patient and treatment characteristics were otherwise balanced between patients taking and not taking ACEIs/ARBs. No significant effect was observed on pCR rates with other medications, including statins, metformin, and aspirin. Multivariate analyses of aggregate data identified ACEI/ARB use as a strong predictor of pCR (odds ratio, 4.02; 95% confidence interval, 2.06-7.82; P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: The incidental use of ACEIs/ARBs among patients with rectal cancer is associated with a significantly increased rate of pCR after neoadjuvant treatment. Cancer 2016;122:2487-95. © 2016 American Cancer Society.
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Protocolos de Quimioterapia Combinada Antineoplásica/uso terapéutico , Neoplasias del Recto/tratamiento farmacológico , Adulto , Anciano , Antagonistas de Receptores de Angiotensina/uso terapéutico , Inhibidores de la Enzima Convertidora de Angiotensina/uso terapéutico , Terapia Combinada , Sinergismo Farmacológico , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Terapia Neoadyuvante , Clasificación del Tumor , Estadificación de Neoplasias , Radioterapia Adyuvante , Neoplasias del Recto/mortalidad , Neoplasias del Recto/patología , Neoplasias del Recto/radioterapia , Resultado del TratamientoRESUMEN
Nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) may prevent dementia, but previous studies have yielded conflicting results. This study estimated the association of prior NSAID use with incident cognitive impairment in the population-based Epidemiology of Hearing Loss Study (EHLS, n=2422 without cognitive impairment in 1998-2000). Prospectively collected medication data from 1988-1990, 1993-1995, and 1998-2000 were used to categorize NSAID use history at the cognitive baseline (1998-2000). Aspirin use and nonaspirin NSAID use were separately examined. Cox regression models were used to estimate the associations between NSAID use history at baseline and incident cognitive impairment in 2003-2005 or 2009-2010. Logistic regression analyses were used to estimate associations with a second outcome, mild cognitive impairment/dementia, available in 2009-2010. Participants using aspirin at baseline but not 5 years prior were more likely to develop cognitive impairment (adjusted hazard ratio=1.77; 95% confidence interval=1.11, 2.82; model 2), with nonsignificant associations for longer term use. Nonaspirin NSAID use was not associated with incident cognitive impairment or mild cognitive impairment/dementia odds. These results provided no evidence to support a potential protective effect of NSAIDs against dementia.
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Antiinflamatorios no Esteroideos/efectos adversos , Aspirina/efectos adversos , Disfunción Cognitiva/epidemiología , Anciano , Disfunción Cognitiva/etiología , Demencia/epidemiología , Demencia/etiología , Femenino , Humanos , Incidencia , Estudios Longitudinales , Masculino , Estudios Prospectivos , Factores de RiesgoRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: The additive hazards model can be easier to interpret and in some cases fits better than the proportional hazards model. However, sample size formulas for clinical trials with time to event outcomes are currently based on either the proportional hazards assumption or an assumption of constant hazards. AIMS: The goal is to provide sample size formulas for superiority and non-inferiority trials assuming an additive hazards model but no specific distribution, along with evaluations of the performance of the formulas. METHODS: Formulas are presented that determine the required sample size for a given scenario under the additive hazards model. Simulations are conducted to ensure that the formulas attain the desired power. For illustration, the non-inferiority sample size formula is applied to the calculations in the SPORTIF III trial of stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation. CONCLUSION: Simulation results show that the sample size calculations lead to the correct power. Sample size is easily calculated using a tool that is available on the web at http://leemcdaniel.github.io/samplesize.html.
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Modelos de Riesgos Proporcionales , Tamaño de la Muestra , Enfermedades Cardiovasculares , Simulación por Computador , Humanos , Ensayos Clínicos Controlados Aleatorios como Asunto/estadística & datos numéricosRESUMEN
INTRODUCTION: The present study investigated the relationship between beta-amyloid (Aß) and cognition in a late middle-aged cohort at risk for Alzheimer's disease (AD). METHODS: One eighty-four participants (mean age = 60; 72% parental history of AD) completed a [C-11]Pittsburgh compound B positron emission tomography scan and serial cognitive evaluations. A global measure of Aß burden was calculated, and composite scores assessing learning, delayed memory, and executive functioning were computed. RESULTS: Higher Aß was associated with classification of psychometric mild cognitive impairment (MCI) at follow-up (P < .01). Linear mixed effects regression results indicated higher Aß was associated with greater rates of decline in delayed memory (P < .01) and executive functioning (P < .05). Apolipoprotein E (APOE) ε4 status moderated the relationship between Aß and cognitive trajectories (P values <.01). DISCUSSION: In individuals at risk for AD, greater Aß in late middle age is associated with increased likelihood of MCI at follow-up and steeper rates of cognitive decline.
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Enfermedad de Alzheimer/metabolismo , Péptidos beta-Amiloides/metabolismo , Disfunción Cognitiva/metabolismo , Anciano , Encéfalo/metabolismo , Progresión de la Enfermedad , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Pruebas Neuropsicológicas/estadística & datos numéricos , Tomografía de Emisión de Positrones/métodos , Síntomas Prodrómicos , Sistema de Registros , WisconsinRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: A current recommendation for locoregionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) is conventional fractionated radiotherapy with concurrent cisplatin plus adjuvant cisplatin and fluorouracil (PF). In this randomized trial, the authors evaluated the potential therapeutic benefit from changing to an induction-concurrent chemotherapy sequence, replacing fluorouracil with oral capecitabine, and/or using accelerated rather than conventional radiotherapy fractionation. METHODS: Patients with stage III through IVB, nonkeratinizing NPC were randomly allocated to 1 of 6 treatment arms. The protocol was amended in 2009 to permit confining randomization to the conventional fractionation arms. The primary endpoint was progression-free survival. Secondary endpoints included overall survival and safety. RESULTS: In total, 803 patients were accrued, and 706 patients were randomly allocated to all 6 treatment arms. Comparisons of induction PF versus adjuvant PF did not indicate a significant improvement. Unadjusted comparisons of induction cisplatin and capecitabine (PX) versus adjuvant PF indicated a favorable trend in progression-free survival for the conventional fractionation arm (P = .045); analyses that were adjusted for other significant factors and fractionation reflected a significant reduction in the hazards of disease progression (hazard ratio [HR], 0.54; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.36-0.80) and death (HR, 0.42; 95% CI, 0.25-0.70). Unadjusted comparisons of induction sequences versus adjuvant sequences did not reach statistical significance, but adjusted comparisons indicated favorable improvements by induction sequence. Comparisons of induction PX versus induction PF revealed fewer toxicities (neutropenia and electrolyte disturbance), unadjusted comparisons of efficacy were statistically insignificant, but adjusted analyses indicated that induction PX had a lower hazard of death (HR, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.34-0.97). Changing the fractionation from conventional to accelerated did not achieve any benefit but incurred higher toxicities (acute mucositis and dehydration). CONCLUSIONS: Preliminary results indicate that the benefit of changing to an induction-concurrent sequence remains uncertain; replacing fluorouracil with oral capecitabine warrants further validation in view of its convenience, favorable toxicity profile, and favorable trends in efficacy; and accelerated fractionation is not recommended for patients with locoregionally advanced NPC who receive chemoradiotherapy.
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Quimioradioterapia Adyuvante/métodos , Desoxicitidina/análogos & derivados , Fluorouracilo/análogos & derivados , Fluorouracilo/administración & dosificación , Neoplasias Nasofaríngeas/terapia , Recurrencia Local de Neoplasia/terapia , Adulto , Anciano , Capecitabina , Carcinoma , Desoxicitidina/administración & dosificación , Desoxicitidina/efectos adversos , Fraccionamiento de la Dosis de Radiación , Fluorouracilo/efectos adversos , Humanos , Quimioterapia de Inducción , Persona de Mediana Edad , Carcinoma Nasofaríngeo , Neoplasias Nasofaríngeas/patología , Recurrencia Local de Neoplasia/patología , Análisis de Supervivencia , Resultado del Tratamiento , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
Progressive and insidious cognitive decline that interferes with daily life is the defining characteristic of Alzheimer's disease (AD). Epidemiological studies have found that the pathological process of AD begins years before a clinical diagnosis is made and can be highly variable within a given population. Characterizing cognitive decline in the preclinical phase of AD is critical for the development of early intervention strategies when disease-modifying therapies may be most effective. In the last decade, there has been an increased interest in the application of change-point models to longitudinal cognitive outcomes prior to and after diagnosis. Most of the proposed statistical methodology for describing decline relies upon distributional assumptions that may not hold. In this article, we introduce a quantile regression with a change-point model for longitudinal data of cognitive function in persons bound to develop AD. A change-point in our model reflects the transition from the cognitive decline due to normal aging to the accelerated decline due to disease progression. Quantile regression avoids common distributional assumptions on cognitive outcomes and allows the covariate effects and the change-point to vary for different quantiles of the response. We provided an approach for estimating the model parameters, including the change-point, and presented inferential procedures based on the asymptotic properties of the estimators. A simulation study showed that the estimation and inferential procedures perform reasonably well in finite samples. The practical use of our model was illustrated by an application to longitudinal episodic memory outcomes from two cohort studies of aging and AD.
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Enfermedad de Alzheimer/diagnóstico , Enfermedad de Alzheimer/epidemiología , Trastornos del Conocimiento/diagnóstico , Trastornos del Conocimiento/epidemiología , Estudios Longitudinales , Análisis de Regresión , Distribución por Edad , Comorbilidad , Interpretación Estadística de Datos , Humanos , Incidencia , Reproducibilidad de los Resultados , Medición de Riesgo/métodos , Sensibilidad y EspecificidadRESUMEN
Previous studies suggest associations between self-reported sleep problems and poorer health, cognition, Alzheimer's disease pathology and dementia-related outcomes. It is important to develop a deeper understanding of the relationship between these complications and sleep disturbance, a modifiable risk factor, in late midlife, a time when Alzheimer's disease pathology may be accruing. The objectives of this study included application of unsupervised machine learning procedures to identify distinct subgroups of persons with problematic sleep and the association of these subgroups with concurrent measures of mental and physical health, cognition and PET-identified amyloid. Dementia-free participants from the Wisconsin Registry for Alzheimer's Prevention (n = 619) completed sleep questionnaires including the Insomnia Severity Index, Epworth Sleepiness Scale and Medical Outcomes Study Sleep Scale. K-means clustering analysis identified discrete sleep problem groups who were then compared across concurrent health outcomes (e.g. depression, self-rated health and insulin resistance), cognitive composite indices including episodic memory and executive function and, in a subset, Pittsburgh Compound B PET imaging to assess amyloid burden. Significant omnibus tests (P < 0.05) were followed with pairwise comparisons. Mean (SD) sample baseline sleep assessment age was 62.6 (6.7). Cluster analysis identified three groups: healthy sleepers [n = 262 (42.3%)], intermediate sleepers [n = 229 (37.0%)] and poor sleepers [n = 128 (20.7%)]. All omnibus tests comparing demographics and health measures across sleep groups were significant except for age, sex and apolipoprotein E e4 carriers; the poor sleepers group was worse than one or both of the other groups on all other measures, including measures of depression, self-reported health and memory complaints. The poor sleepers group had higher average body mass index, waist-hip ratio and homeostatic model assessment of insulin resistance. After adjusting for covariates, the poor sleepers group also performed worse on all concurrent cognitive composites except working memory. There were no differences between sleep groups on PET-based measures of amyloid. Sensitivity analyses indicated that while different clustering approaches resulted in different group assignments for some (predominantly the intermediate group), between-group patterns in outcomes were consistent. In conclusion, distinct sleep characteristics groups were identified with a sizable minority (20.7%) exhibiting poor sleep characteristics, and this group also exhibited the poorest concurrent mental and physical health and cognition, indicating substantial multi-morbidity; sleep group was not associated with amyloid PET estimates. Precision-based management of sleep and related factors may provide an opportunity for early intervention that could serve to delay or prevent clinical impairment.
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Cognitive decline in Alzheimer's disease and other dementias typically begins long before clinical impairment. Identifying people experiencing subclinical decline may facilitate earlier intervention. This study developed cognitive trajectory clusters using longitudinally based random slope and change point parameter estimates from a Preclinical Alzheimer's disease Cognitive Composite and examined how baseline and most recently available clinical/health-related characteristics, cognitive statuses and biomarkers for Alzheimer's disease and vascular disease varied across these cognitive clusters. Data were drawn from the Wisconsin Registry for Alzheimer's Prevention, a longitudinal cohort study of adults from late midlife, enriched for a parental history of Alzheimer's disease and without dementia at baseline. Participants who were cognitively unimpaired at the baseline visit with ≥3 cognitive visits were included in trajectory modelling (n = 1068). The following biomarker data were available for subsets: positron emission tomography amyloid (amyloid: n = 367; [11C]Pittsburgh compound B (PiB): global PiB distribution volume ratio); positron emission tomography tau (tau: n = 321; [18F]MK-6240: primary regions of interest meta-temporal composite); MRI neurodegeneration (neurodegeneration: n = 581; hippocampal volume and global brain atrophy); T2 fluid-attenuated inversion recovery MRI white matter ischaemic lesion volumes (vascular: white matter hyperintensities; n = 419); and plasma pTau217 (n = 165). Posterior median estimate person-level change points, slopes' pre- and post-change point and estimated outcome (intercepts) at change point for cognitive composite were extracted from Bayesian Bent-Line Regression modelling and used to characterize cognitive trajectory groups (K-means clustering). A common method was used to identify amyloid/tau/neurodegeneration/vascular biomarker thresholds. We compared demographics, last visit cognitive status, health-related factors and amyloid/tau/neurodegeneration/vascular biomarkers across the cognitive groups using ANOVA, Kruskal-Wallis, χ2, and Fisher's exact tests. Mean (standard deviation) baseline and last cognitive assessment ages were 58.4 (6.4) and 66.6 (6.6) years, respectively. Cluster analysis identified three cognitive trajectory groups representing steep, n = 77 (7.2%); intermediate, n = 446 (41.8%); and minimal, n = 545 (51.0%) cognitive decline. The steep decline group was older, had more females, APOE e4 carriers and mild cognitive impairment/dementia at last visit; it also showed worse self-reported general health-related and vascular risk factors and higher amyloid, tau, neurodegeneration and white matter hyperintensity positive proportions at last visit. Subtle cognitive decline was consistently evident in the steep decline group and was associated with generally worse health. In addition, cognitive trajectory groups differed on aetiology-informative biomarkers and risk factors, suggesting an intimate link between preclinical cognitive patterns and amyloid/tau/neurodegeneration/vascular biomarker differences in late middle-aged adults. The result explains some of the heterogeneity in cognitive performance within cognitively unimpaired late middle-aged adults.
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BACKGROUND: MKC-1 is an oral cell-cycle inhibitor with broad antitumor activity in preclinical models. Clinical studies demonstrated modest antitumor activity using intermittent dosing schedule, however additional preclinical data suggested continuous dosing could be efficacious with additional effects against the mTor/AKT pathway. The primary objectives were to determine the maximum tolerated dose (MTD) and response of continuous MKC-1. Secondary objectives included characterizing the dose limiting toxicities (DLTs) and pharmacokinetics (PK). METHODS: Patients with solid malignancies were eligible, if they had measurable disease, ECOG PS ≤1, and adequate organ function. Exclusions included brain metastases and inability to receive oral drug. MKC-1 was dosed twice daily, continuously in 28-day cycles. Other medications were eliminated if there were possible drug interactions. Doses were assigned using a TITE-CRM algorithm following enrollment of the first 3 pts. Disease response was assessed every 8 weeks. RESULTS: Between 5/08-9/09, 24 patients enrolled (15 M/9 F, median 58 years, range 44-77). Patients 1-3 received 120 mg/d of MKC-1; patients 4-24 were dosed per the TITE-CRM algorithm: 150 mg [n = 1], 180 [2], 200 [1], 230 [1], 260 [5], 290 [6], 320 [5]. The median time on drug was 8 weeks (range 4-28). The only DLT occurred at 320 mg (grade 3 fatigue). Stable disease occurred at 150 mg/d (28 weeks; RCC) and 320 mg/d (16 weeks; breast, parotid). Escalation halted at 320 mg/d. Day 28 pharmacokinetics indicated absorption and active metabolites. CONCLUSION: Continuous MKC-1 was well-tolerated; there were no RECIST responses, although clinical benefit occurred in 3/24 pts. Dose escalation stopped at 320 mg/d, and this is the MTD as defined by the CRM dose escalation algorithm; this cumulative dose/cycle exceeds that determined from intermittent dosing studies. A TITE-CRM allowed for rapid dose escalation and was able to account for late toxicities with continuous dosing via a modified algorithm.
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Antineoplásicos/administración & dosificación , Indoles/administración & dosificación , Neoplasias/tratamiento farmacológico , Adulto , Anciano , Algoritmos , Antineoplásicos/efectos adversos , Antineoplásicos/farmacocinética , Relación Dosis-Respuesta a Droga , Femenino , Humanos , Indoles/efectos adversos , Indoles/farmacocinética , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Metástasis de la Neoplasia , Neoplasias/metabolismo , Neoplasias/patologíaRESUMEN
Quantile regression, which models the conditional quantiles of the response variable given covariates, usually assumes a linear model. However, this kind of linearity is often unrealistic in real life. One situation where linear quantile regression is not appropriate is when the response variable is piecewise linear but still continuous in covariates. To analyze such data, we propose a bent line quantile regression model. We derive its parameter estimates, prove that they are asymptotically valid given the existence of a change-point, and discuss several methods for testing the existence of a change-point in bent line quantile regression together with a power comparison by simulation. An example of land mammal maximal running speeds is given to illustrate an application of bent line quantile regression in which this model is theoretically justified and its parameters are of direct biological interests.
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Biometría/métodos , Peso Corporal/fisiología , Marcha/fisiología , Locomoción/fisiología , Modelos Biológicos , Esfuerzo Físico/fisiología , Análisis de Regresión , Algoritmos , Animales , Simulación por Computador , Interpretación Estadística de Datos , Modelos EstadísticosRESUMEN
Important properties of diagnostic methods are their sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values (PPV and NPV). These methods are typically assessed via case-control samples, which include one cohort of cases known to have the disease and a second control cohort of disease-free subjects. Such studies give direct estimates of sensitivity and specificity but only indirect estimates of PPV and NPV, which also depend on the disease prevalence in the tested population. The motivating example arises in assay testing, where usage is contemplated in populations with known prevalences. Further instances include biomarker development, where subjects are selected from a population with known prevalence and assessment of PPV and NPV is crucial, and the assessment of diagnostic imaging procedures for rare diseases, where case-control studies may be the only feasible designs. We develop formulas for optimal allocation of the sample between the case and control cohorts and for computing sample size when the goal of the study is to prove that the test procedure exceeds pre-stated bounds for PPV and/or NPV. Surprisingly, the optimal sampling schemes for many purposes are highly unbalanced, even when information is desired on both PPV and NPV.
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Estudios de Casos y Controles , Protocolos Clínicos , Bioensayo/estadística & datos numéricos , Protocolos Clínicos/normas , Diagnóstico por Imagen/estadística & datos numéricos , Estudios de Evaluación como Asunto , Humanos , Infecciones/sangre , Infecciones/epidemiología , Prevalencia , Tamaño de la Muestra , Muestreo , Sensibilidad y EspecificidadRESUMEN
As part of a population-based study in Beaver Dam, Wisconsin, we estimated the 10-year cumulative incidence of tinnitus and its risk factors. Participants (n = 2922, aged 48-92 years) not reporting tinnitus at baseline (1993-1995) were followed for up to ten years. In addition to audiometric testing and anthropometric measures, data on tinnitus, health, and other history were obtained via questionnaire. Potential risk factors were assessed with discrete-time proportional hazards models. The 10-year cumulative incidence of tinnitus was 12.7%. The risk of developing tinnitus was significantly associated with: history of arthritis (hazard ratio (HR = 1.37), history of head injury (HR = 1.76), history of ever smoking (HR = 1.40), and among women, hearing loss (HR = 2.59). Alcohol consumption (HR = 0.63 for > or = 141 grams/week vs. <15 grams/week), age (among women, HR = 0.90 for each five-year increase in age), and among men, obesity (HR = 0.55), were associated with decreased risk. The risk of developing tinnitus was high for older adults, and associated with modifiable health and behavioral factors.
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Acúfeno/epidemiología , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Antropometría , Audiometría , Femenino , Estudios de Seguimiento , Humanos , Incidencia , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Modelos de Riesgos Proporcionales , Riesgo , Factores de Riesgo , Encuestas y Cuestionarios , Factores de Tiempo , Wisconsin/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
Soil may serve as an environmental reservoir for prion infectivity and contribute to the horizontal transmission of prion diseases (transmissible spongiform encephalopathies [TSEs]) of sheep, deer, and elk. TSE infectivity can persist in soil for years, and we previously demonstrated that the disease-associated form of the prion protein binds to soil particles and prions adsorbed to the common soil mineral montmorillonite (Mte) retain infectivity following intracerebral inoculation. Here, we assess the oral infectivity of Mte- and soil-bound prions. We establish that prions bound to Mte are orally bioavailable, and that, unexpectedly, binding to Mte significantly enhances disease penetrance and reduces the incubation period relative to unbound agent. Cox proportional hazards modeling revealed that across the doses of TSE agent tested, Mte increased the effective infectious titer by a factor of 680 relative to unbound agent. Oral exposure to Mte-associated prions led to TSE development in experimental animals even at doses too low to produce clinical symptoms in the absence of the mineral. We tested the oral infectivity of prions bound to three whole soils differing in texture, mineralogy, and organic carbon content and found soil-bound prions to be orally infectious. Two of the three soils increased oral transmission of disease, and the infectivity of agent bound to the third organic carbon-rich soil was equivalent to that of unbound agent. Enhanced transmissibility of soil-bound prions may explain the environmental spread of some TSEs despite the presumably low levels shed into the environment. Association of prions with inorganic microparticles represents a novel means by which their oral transmission is enhanced relative to unbound agent.