Updated population-level estimates of child restraint practices among children aged 0-12 years in Australia, 10 years after introduction of age-appropriate restraint use legislation.

OBJECTIVE: Optimal child passenger protection requires use of a restraint designed for the age/size of the child (appropriate use) that is used in the way the manufacturer intended (correct use).This study aimed to determine child restraint practices approximately 10 years after introduction of legislation requiring correct use of age-appropriate restraints for all children aged up to 7 years. METHODS: A stratified cluster sample was constructed to collect observational data from children aged 0-12 years across the Greater Sydney region of New South Wales (NSW). Methods replicated those used in a similar 2008 study. Population weighted estimates for restraint practices were generated, and logistic regression used to examine associations between restraint type, and child age with correct use accounting for the complex sample. RESULTS: Almost all children were appropriately restrained (99.3%, 95% CI 98.4% to 100%). However, less than half were correctly restrained (no error=27.3%, 95% CI 10.8% to 43.8%, no serious error=43.8%, 95% CI 35.0% to 52.7%). For any error, the odds of error decreased by 39% per year of age (OR 0.61, 95% CI 0.46 to 0.81) and for serious error by 25% per year (OR 0.75, 95% CI 0.60 to 0.93). CONCLUSION: The findings demonstrate high levels of appropriate restraint use among children across metropolitan Sydney approximately 10 years after introduction of legislation requiring age-appropriate restraint use until age 7, however, errors in the way restraints remain common. IMPLICATIONS FOR PUBLIC HEALTH: Given the negative impact incorrect use has on crash protection, continuing high rates of incorrect use may reduce effectiveness of legislative change on injury reduction.

A Systematic Review of the Risks of Motor Vehicle Crashes Associated with Psychiatric Disorders.

OBJECTIVE: Psychiatric disorders and their treatments have the potential to adversely impact driving skills. However, it is unclear to what extent this poses a public health risk by increasing the risk of motor vehicle crashes (MVCs). The aim of this systematic review was to synthesize and critically appraise evidence on the risk of MVC for drivers with psychiatric disorders. METHOD: We conducted a systematic review of the MVC risk associated with psychiatric disorders using seven databases in November 2019. Two reviewers examined each study and extracted data. The National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute Quality Assessment tools were used to assess each study's quality of evidence. RESULTS: We identified 24 studies that met the inclusion criteria, including eight cohort, 10 case-control, and six cross-sectional designs. Quality assessment ratings were "Good" for four studies, "Fair" for 10, and "Poor" for 10. Self-report or questionnaires were used in place of objective measures of either MVC, psychiatric disorder, or both in 12 studies, and only seven adjusted for driving exposure. Fifteen studies reported an increased risk of MVC associated with psychiatric disorders, and nine did not. There was no category of disorder that was consistently associated with increased MVC risk. CONCLUSION: The available evidence is mixed, not of high quality, and does not support a blanket restriction on drivers with psychiatric disorder. An individualized approach, as recommended by international guidelines, should continue. Further research should include objective assessments of psychiatric disorders and MVC risk and adjust for driving exposure.

Investigating feasibility and preliminary efficacy of a simulator-based driving intervention for people with acquired brain injury: A randomised controlled pilot study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the feasibility and preliminary efficacy of a driving simulator intervention on driving outcomes following acquired brain injury. DESIGN: Pilot randomised controlled trial. SETTING: Occupational therapy driver assessment and rehabilitation service. SUBJECTS: Individuals post-acquired brain injury aiming to return to driving. INTERVENTION: Eight sessions of simulated driver training over four weeks, in addition to usual care. Control: Usual care only. MAIN MEASURES: Feasibility outcomes: Participant recruitment and retention; data completeness; therapy attendance and fidelity; adverse events. Performance outcomes: on-road driving performance; Simulator Sickness Questionnaire; Brain Injury Driving Self-Awareness Measure and Driving Comfort Scale - Daytime, assessed at baseline and five weeks post-randomisation. RESULTS: Out of 523 individuals screened, 22 (4%) were recruited and randomised, with 20 completing their allocated group (n = 12 Simulator, n = 8 Usual Care). For those who completed training, session attendance was 100% with simulator sickness rated, on average, as mild. Six individuals (50%) in the Simulator group failed the on-road assessment, versus two (25%) in the Usual Care group (P = 0.373). On average, the Simulator group reported a positive change in confidence ratings (M = 5.77, SD = 13.96) compared to the Usual Care group, who reported a negative change (M = -6.97, SD = 8.47), P = 0.034. The Simulator group (M = 0.67, SD = 3.34) demonstrated no significant change in self-awareness relative to the Usual Care group (M = -0.83, SD = 1.83, P = 0.325). CONCLUSIONS: With adjustments to inclusion criteria and recruitment strategies, it may be feasible to deliver the intervention and conduct a larger trial. There is potential benefit of simulator training for improving driver confidence after acquired brain injury.

User experiences and perspectives of a driving simulator intervention for individuals with acquired brain injury: A qualitative study.

Driving a motor vehicle is a common rehabilitation goal following acquired brain injury (ABI). There is increasing interest in the use of driving simulators for driver rehabilitation post-ABI; however, there is still limited research demonstrating efficacy and acceptability. This study sought to examine the user experience of a driving simulator intervention for ABI survivors. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 14 individuals, including 12 ABI survivors (42% male; Mean age = 53.92 years, SD age = 17.63) who completed the intervention, and 2 occupational therapist driver assessors who facilitated the intervention. Thematic analysis was adopted to analyse interview data. Findings suggest that individual differences (e.g., anxiety, previous experience) influenced participant response to training. The intervention allowed participants to practise various driving skills, re-familiarize themselves with the task of driving, and prepare for return to on-road driving within a safe environment. The intervention was perceived to be useful for enhancing driver self-awareness, autonomy, confidence and patience. Fidelity and simulator sickness were considered limitations of the simulator technology. Subjective accounts of the appropriateness of intervention components are also documented. Overall, the simulator intervention was reported to be a positive experience for participants. Themes emerging from this study can inform future driving simulator interventions for ABI survivors.

Probability of sepsis after infection consultations in primary care in the United Kingdom in 2002-2017: Population-based cohort study and decision analytic model.

BACKGROUND: Efforts to reduce unnecessary antibiotic prescribing have coincided with increasing awareness of sepsis. We aimed to estimate the probability of sepsis following infection consultations in primary care when antibiotics were or were not prescribed. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a cohort study including all registered patients at 706 general practices in the United Kingdom Clinical Practice Research Datalink, with 66.2 million person-years of follow-up from 2002 to 2017. There were 35,244 first episodes of sepsis (17,886, 51%, female; median age 71 years, interquartile range 57-82 years). Consultations for respiratory tract infection (RTI), skin or urinary tract infection (UTI), and antibiotic prescriptions were exposures. A Bayesian decision tree was used to estimate the probability (95% uncertainty intervals [UIs]) of sepsis following an infection consultation. Age, gender, and frailty were evaluated as association modifiers. The probability of sepsis was lower if an antibiotic was prescribed, but the number of antibiotic prescriptions required to prevent one episode of sepsis (number needed to treat [NNT]) decreased with age. At 0-4 years old, the NNT was 29,773 (95% UI 18,458-71,091) in boys and 27,014 (16,739-65,709) in girls; over 85 years old, NNT was 262 (236-293) in men and 385 (352-421) in women. Frailty was associated with greater risk of sepsis and lower NNT. For severely frail patients aged 55-64 years, the NNT was 247 (156-459) in men and 343 (234-556) in women. At all ages, the probability of sepsis was greatest for UTI, followed by skin infection, followed by RTI. At 65-74 years, the NNT following RTI was 1,257 (1,112-1,434) in men and 2,278 (1,966-2,686) in women; the NNT following skin infection was 503 (398-646) in men and 784 (602-1,051) in women; following UTI, the NNT was 121 (102-145) in men and 284 (241-342) in women. NNT values were generally smaller for the period from 2014 to 2017, when sepsis was diagnosed more frequently. Lack of random allocation to antibiotic therapy might have biased estimates; patients may sometimes experience sepsis or receive antibiotic prescriptions without these being recorded in primary care; recording of sepsis has increased over the study period. CONCLUSIONS: These stratified estimates of risk help to identify groups in which antibiotic prescribing may be more safely reduced. Risks of sepsis and benefits of antibiotics are more substantial among older adults, persons with more advanced frailty, or following UTIs.

Peritonsillar Abscess and Antibiotic Prescribing for Respiratory Infection in Primary Care: A Population-Based Cohort Study and Decision-Analytic Model.

PURPOSE: To quantify the risk of peritonsillar abscess (PTA) following consultation for respiratory tract infection (RTI) in primary care. METHOD: A cohort study was conducted in the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink including 718 general practices with 65,681,293 patient years of follow-up and 11,007 patients with a first episode of PTA. From a decision tree, Bayes theorem was employed to estimate both the probability of PTA following an RTI consultation if antibiotics were prescribed or not, and the number of patients needed to be treated with antibiotics to prevent 1 PTA. RESULTS: There were 11,007 patients with PTA with age-standardized incidence of new episodes of PTA of 17.2 per 100,000 patient years for men and 16.1 for women; 6,996 (64%) consulted their practitioner in the 30 days preceding PTA diagnosis, including 4,243 (39%) consulting for RTI. The probability of PTA following an RTI consultation was greatest in men aged 15 to 24 years with 1 PTA in 565 (95% uncertainty interval 527 to 605) RTI consultations without antibiotics prescribed but 1 in 1,139 consultations (1,044 to 1,242) if antibiotics were prescribed. One PTA might be avoided for every 1,121 (975 to 1,310) additional antibiotic prescriptions for men aged 15 to 24 years and 926 (814 to 1,063) for men aged 25 to 34 years. The risk of PTA following RTI consultation was smaller and the number needed to treat higher at other ages and risks were lower in women than men. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of PTA may be lower if antibiotics are prescribed for RTI but even in young men nearly 1,000 antibiotic prescriptions may be required to prevent 1 PTA case. We caution that lack of randomization and data standardization may bias estimates.

User-driven design of child restraint information to reduce errors in use: a pilot randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Incorrect use of child restraints is a long-standing problem that increases the risk of injury in crashes. We used user-centred design to develop prototype child restraint instructional materials. The objective of this study was to evaluate these materials in terms of comprehension and errors in the use of child restraints. The relationship between comprehension and errors in use was also explored. METHODS: We used a parallel-group randomised controlled trial in a laboratory setting. The intervention group (n=22) were provided with prototype materials and the control group (n=22) with existing instructional materials for the same restraint. Participants installed the restraint in a vehicle buck, secured an appropriately sized mannequin in the restraint and underwent a comprehension test. Our primary outcome was overall correct use, and our secondary outcomes were (1) comprehension score and (2) percent errors in the installation trial. RESULTS: There was 27% more overall correct use (p=0.042) and a higher mean comprehension score in the intervention group (mean 17, 95% CI 16 to 18) compared with the control group (mean 12, 95% CI 10 to 14, p<0.001). The mean error percentage in the control group was 23% (95% CI 16% to 31%) compared with 14% in the intervention group (95% CI 8% to 20%, p=0.056). For every one point increase in comprehension, there was an almost 2% (95% CI -2.7% to -1.0%) reduction in errors (y=45.5-1.87x, p value for slope <0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Consumer-driven design of informational materials can increase the correct use of child restraints. Targeting improved comprehension of informational materials may be an effective mechanism for reducing child restraint misuse.

Can child restraint product information developed using consumer testing sustain correct use 6 months after child restraint purchase? Study protocol for a cluster randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: With long-standing and widespread high rates of errors in child restraint use, there is a need to identify effective methods to address this problem. Information supplied with products at the point of sale may be a potentially efficient delivery point for such a countermeasure. The aim of this study is to establish whether product materials developed using a consumer-driven approach reduce errors in restraint use among purchasers of new child restraint systems. METHODS: A cluster randomised controlled trial (cRCT) will be conducted. Retail stores (n=22) in the greater Sydney area will be randomised into intervention sites (n=11) and control sites (n=11), stratified by geographical and socioeconomic indicators. Participants (n=836) will enter the study on purchase of a restraint. Outcome measures are errors in installation of the restraint as observed by a trained researcher during a 6-month follow-up home assessment, and adjustment checks made by the parent when the child is placed into the restraint (observed using naturalistic methods). Process evaluation measures will also be collected during the home visit. An intention-to-treat approach will be used for all analyses. Correct use and adjustment checks made by the parent will be compared between control and intervention groups using a logistic regression model. The number of installation errors between groups will be compared using Poisson regression. DISCUSSION: This cRCT will determine the effectiveness of targeted, consumer-driven information on actual error rates in use of restraints. More broadly, it may provide a best practice model for developing safety product information. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ACTRN12617001252303p; Pre-results.

Risk of Motor Vehicle Collision or Driving Impairment After Traumatic Brain Injury: A Collaborative International Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To synthesize knowledge of the risk of motor vehicle collision (MVC) following a traumatic brain injury (TBI) and the associated risk of driving impairment, as measured by on-road tests, computerized simulators, and self-reported or state-recorded driving records. METHODS: Our international team searched 7 databases for studies published between 1990 and 2015 of people with TBI, controls, and data concerning either MVC or driving impairment. The included articles examined the risk of MVC among people with TBI; we excluded studies that examined the risk of having a TBI associated with being involved in an MVC. RESULTS: From 13 578 search results, we included 8 studies involving 1663 participants with TBI and 4796 controls. We found no significant difference in the risk of MVC (odds ratio = 1.24, 95% confidence interval = 0.80-1.91, P = .34). When we restricted the analysis to self-report, the risk of MVC was higher for those without a TBI (odds ratio = 1.63, 95% confidence interval = 1.21-2.22, P = .002). In contrast, participants with TBI consistently performed worse during on-road assessments and had more problems with vehicular control. CONCLUSION: Limitations of reviewed studies included small sample sizes, failure to specify TBI severity or time postinjury, and absence of objective measures of risk. Findings concerning the relationship between TBIs from non-MVC causes and crash risk are, therefore, inconclusive and do not provide evidence for major changes to existing clinical guidelines for driving with TBI.

Using Naturalistic Methods to Examine Real-World Driving Behavior in Individuals With TBI Upon Return to Driving: A Pilot Study.

OBJECTIVES: To characterize the real-world driving habits of individuals with traumatic brain injury (TBI) using naturalistic methods and to demonstrate the feasibility of such methods in exploring return to driving after TBI. METHODS: After passing an on-road driving assessment, 8 participants with TBI and 23 matched controls had an in-vehicle device installed to record information regarding their driving patterns (distance, duration, and start/end times) for 90 days. RESULTS: The overall number of trips, distance and duration or percentage of trips during peak hour, above 15 km from home or on freeways/highways did not differ between groups. However, the TBI group drove significantly less at night, and more during the daytime, than controls. Exploratory analyses using geographic information system (GIS) also demonstrated significant within-group heterogeneity for the TBI group in terms of location of travel. CONCLUSIONS: The TBI and control groups were largely comparable in terms of driving exposure, except for when they drove, which may indicate small group differences in driving self-regulatory practices. However, the GIS evidence suggests driving patterns within the TBI group were heterogeneous. These findings provide evidence for the feasibility of employing noninvasive in-car recording devices to explore real-world driving behavior post-TBI.

Self-regulation upon return to driving after traumatic brain injury.

The aim of this study was to explore self-reported driving habits and the factors associated with these within the first three months of return to driving following traumatic brain injury (TBI). Participants included 24 individuals with moderate to severe TBI (post-traumatic amnesia duration M = 33.26, SD = 29.69 days) and 28 healthy age, education, and gender-matched controls who completed an on-road assessment. Driving frequency and avoidance questionnaires were administered to assess premorbid driving, anticipated driving upon resuming, and driving at three months post-assessment. There were no differences between groups for premorbid driving frequency or avoidance. Individuals with TBI anticipated greater reductions in driving frequency, t(29.57) = -3.95, p < .001, and increases in avoidance, U = 171.00, z = -2.69, p < .01. On follow up, significant reductions in frequency, t(48) = -3.03, p < .01, but not avoidance, U = 239.00, z = -1.35, p = .18, were observed. Females were more likely to reduce their driving frequency, rs = -.43, p < .05, while increased anxiety was associated with increased avoidance r = .63, p < .05, and reduced frequency r = -.43, p < .05. It was concluded that individuals with TBI anticipated changes in their driving habits upon return to driving, indicating an expectation for post-injury changes to their driving lifestyle. On follow up, many of these intended changes to driving habits, particularly in relation to driving frequency, were reported by individuals with TBI, suggestive of some strategic self-regulation.

Systolic Blood Pressure Trajectory, Frailty, and All-Cause Mortality >80 Years of Age: Cohort Study Using Electronic Health Records.

BACKGROUND: Clinical trials show benefit from lowering systolic blood pressure (SBP) in people ≥80 years of age, but nonrandomized epidemiological studies suggest lower SBP may be associated with higher mortality. This study aimed to evaluate associations of SBP with all-cause mortality by frailty category >80 years of age and to evaluate SBP trajectories before death. METHODS: A population-based cohort study was conducted using electronic health records of 144 403 participants ≥80 years of age registered with family practices in the United Kingdom from 2001 to 2014. Participants were followed for ≤5 years. Clinical records of SBP were analyzed. Frailty status was classified using the e-Frailty Index into the categories of fit, mild, moderate, and severe. All-cause mortality was evaluated by frailty status and mean SBP in Cox proportional-hazards models. SBP trajectories were evaluated using person months as observations, with mean SBP and antihypertensive treatment status estimated for each person month. Fractional polynomial models were used to estimate SBP trajectories over 5 years before death. RESULTS: During follow-up, 51 808 deaths occurred. Mortality rates increased with frailty level and were greatest at SBP <110 mm Hg. In fit women, mortality was 7.7 per 100 person years at SBP 120 to 139 mm Hg, 15.2 at SBP 110 to 119 mm Hg, and 22.7 at SBP <110 mm Hg. For women with severe frailty, rates were 16.8, 25.2, and 39.6, respectively. SBP trajectories showed an accelerated decline in the last 2 years of life. The relative odds of SBP <120 mm Hg were higher in the last 3 months of life than 5 years previously in both treated (odds ratio, 6.06; 95% confidence interval, 5.40-6.81) and untreated (odds ratio, 6.31; 95% confidence interval, 5.30-7.52) patients. There was no evidence of intensification of antihypertensive therapy in the final 2 years of life. CONCLUSIONS: A terminal decline of SBP in the final 2 years of life suggests that nonrandomized epidemiological associations of low SBP with higher mortality may be accounted for by reverse causation if participants with lower blood pressure values are closer, on average, to the end of life.

Costs and Outcomes of Increasing Access to Bariatric Surgery: Cohort Study and Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Using Electronic Health Records.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate costs and outcomes of increasing access to bariatric surgery in obese adults and in population subgroups of age, sex, deprivation, comorbidity, and obesity category. METHODS: A cohort study was conducted using primary care electronic health records, with linked hospital utilization data, for 3,045 participants who underwent bariatric surgery and 247,537 participants who did not undergo bariatric surgery. Epidemiological analyses informed a probabilistic Markov model to compare bariatric surgery, including equal proportions with adjustable gastric banding, gastric bypass, and sleeve gastrectomy, with standard nonsurgical management of obesity. Outcomes were quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and net monetary benefits at a threshold of £30,000 per QALY. RESULTS: In a UK population of 250,000 adults, there may be 7,163 people with morbid obesity including 1,406 with diabetes. The immediate cost of 1,000 bariatric surgical procedures is £9.16 million, with incremental discounted lifetime health care costs of £15.26 million (95% confidence interval £15.18-£15.36 million). Patient-years with diabetes mellitus will decrease by 8,320 (range 8,123-8,502). Incremental QALYs will increase by 2,142 (range 2,032-2,256). The estimated cost per QALY gained is £7,129 (range £6,775-£7,506). Net monetary benefits will be £49.02 million (range £45.72-£52.41 million). Estimates are similar for subgroups of age, sex, and deprivation. Bariatric surgery remains cost-effective if the procedure is twice as costly, or if intervention effect declines over time. CONCLUSIONS: Diverse obese individuals may benefit from bariatric surgery at acceptable cost. Bariatric surgery is not cost-saving, but increased health care costs are exceeded by health benefits to obese individuals.

Inception and deprescribing of statins in people aged over 80 years: cohort study.

Objective: statin use over the age of 80 years is weakly evidence-based. This study aimed to estimate rates of statin inception and deprescribing by frailty level in people aged 80 years or older. Methods: a cohort of 212,566 participants aged ≥80 years was sampled from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Statin inception was defined as a first-ever prescription in a non-statin user; deprescribing was defined as a last ever statin prescription more than 6 months before the end of participant records. Rates were estimated in a time-to-event framework allowing for mortality as a competing risk. Co-variates were age, gender, frailty category and prevention type. Results: prevalent statin use increased from 2001-5 (9.9%) to 2011-15 (49.3%). Inception of statins in never-users was low overall at 2.4% per year (95% confidence interval (CI) 2.2-2.6%) and declined with age. Deprescribing of statins in current users occurred at a rate of 5.6% (95% CI 5.4-5.9%) per year overall and increased with age, reaching 17.8% per year (95% CI 6.7-28.9%) among centenarians. Deprescribing was slightly higher for primary prevention (6.5% per year) than secondary prevention (5.2% per year) indications (P < 0.001). Deprescribing increased with frailty level being 5.0% per year in 'fit' participants and 7.1% in 'severe' frailty (P < 0.001). Conclusions: statin use has increased in the over 80s but deprescribing is common and increases with age and frailty level. These paradoxical findings highlight a need for better evidence to inform statin use and discontinuation for people aged ≥80 years.

Self-Awareness and Self-Ratings of On-Road Driving Performance After Traumatic Brain Injury.

OBJECTIVE: To examine self-rated, clinician-rated, and self-awareness of on-road driving performance in individuals with traumatic brain injury (TBI) deemed fit and unfit to resume driving and healthy controls, and to explore their associations with demographic, injury, cognitive, and mood variables. METHODS: Participants included 37 individuals with moderate to severe TBI, and 49 healthy age, sex, and education-matched controls from Australia and Canada. Participants completed an on-road assessment, the Brain Injury Driving Self-Awareness Measure (BIDSAM), and a comprehensive neuropsychological assessment. RESULTS: Awareness scores on the BIDSAM were significantly different between groups, F(2, 83) = 28.44 (P < .001; η = 0.41), with post hoc tests indicating TBI participants who failed the on-road assessment had worse scores compared with those who passed and controls. Poor self-awareness was significantly correlated with reduced psychomotor speed (rs = -0.37; P < .01) and attentional switching (rs = 0.28; P < .01). Worse self-ratings of driving were associated with depression (rs = 0.42; P < .01) and anxiety (rs = 0.38; P < .01). CONCLUSIONS: Individuals with TBI who failed an on-road assessment significantly overestimated their driving ability. Impaired cognitive function was associated with reduced self-awareness of driving. These findings suggest impaired awareness of driving may need to be addressed as part of driver rehabilitation programs.

The development and initial validation of a new tool to measure self-awareness of driving ability after brain injury.

AIM: The aim of this study was to develop and provide initial validation data for a self-awareness of on-road driving ability measure for individuals with brain injury. METHOD: Thirty-nine individuals with Traumatic Brain Injury completed an on-road driving assessment, the Self-Regulation Skills Interview (SRSI) and the newly developed Brain Injury Driving Self-Awareness Measure (BIDSAM). RESULTS: BIDSAM self, clinician and discrepancy scales demonstrated high levels of internal consistency (α = 0.83-0.92). Criterion-related validity was established by demonstrating significantly higher correlations between clinician ratings and on-road performances, rs  = 0.82, P < 0.01, compared to self-ratings, rs  = 0.45, P < 0.05. Discrepancy scores were significantly correlated with the SRSI emergent, rs  = 0.52, P < 0.01, and anticipatory awareness scores, rs  = 0.37, P < 0.05, indicative of convergent validity. CONCLUSIONS: These results provide initial support for the BIDSAM as a reliable and valid measure of self-awareness of on-road driving ability following TBI.

Modeling Driving Performance Using In-Vehicle Speech Data From a Naturalistic Driving Study.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to (a) describe the development and application of an automated approach for processing in-vehicle speech data from a naturalistic driving study (NDS), (b) examine the influence of child passenger presence on driving performance, and (c) model this relationship using in-vehicle speech data. BACKGROUND: Parent drivers frequently engage in child-related secondary behaviors, but the impact on driving performance is unknown. Applying automated speech-processing techniques to NDS audio data would facilitate the analysis of in-vehicle driver-child interactions and their influence on driving performance. METHOD: Speech activity detection and speaker diarization algorithms were applied to audio data from a Melbourne-based NDS involving 42 families. Multilevel models were developed to evaluate the effect of speech activity and the presence of child passengers on driving performance. RESULTS: Speech activity was significantly associated with velocity and steering angle variability. Child passenger presence alone was not associated with changes in driving performance. However, speech activity in the presence of two child passengers was associated with the most variability in driving performance. CONCLUSION: The effects of in-vehicle speech on driving performance in the presence of child passengers appear to be heterogeneous, and multiple factors may need to be considered in evaluating their impact. This goal can potentially be achieved within large-scale NDS through the automated processing of observational data, including speech. APPLICATION: Speech-processing algorithms enable new perspectives on driving performance to be gained from existing NDS data, and variables that were once labor-intensive to process can be readily utilized in future research.

Chronic inflammatory disorders and risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus, coronary heart disease, and stroke: a population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: This study sought to evaluate whether risks of diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular disease are elevated across a range of organ-specific and multisystem chronic inflammatory disorders. METHODS AND RESULTS: A matched cohort study was implemented in the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink including participants with severe psoriasis (5648), mild psoriasis (85 232), bullous skin diseases (4284), ulcerative colitis (12 203), Crohn's disease (7628), inflammatory arthritis (27 358), systemic autoimmune disorders (7472), and systemic vasculitis (6283) and in 373 851 matched controls. The main outcome measures were new diagnoses of type 2 diabetes mellitus, stroke, or coronary heart disease. The outcomes were evaluated for each condition in a multiple outcomes model, with adjustment for conventional cardiovascular risk factors. Estimates for different inflammatory conditions were pooled in a random-effects meta-analysis. There were 4695 new diagnoses of type 2 diabetes mellitus, 3266 of coronary heart disease, and 1715 of stroke. The hazard ratio for pooled multiple failure estimate was 1.20 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.15-1.26). The highest relative hazards were observed in systemic autoimmune disorders (1.32; 95% CI, 1.16-1.50) and systemic vasculitis (1.29; 95% CI, 1.16-1.44). Hazards were increased in organ-specific disorders, including severe psoriasis (1.29; 95% CI, 1.12-1.47) and ulcerative colitis (1.26; 95% CI, 1.14-1.40). Participants in the highest tertile of C-reactive protein had greater risk of multiple outcomes (1.52; 95% CI, 1.37-1.68). CONCLUSIONS: The risk of cardiovascular diseases and type 2 diabetes mellitus is increased across a range of organ-specific and multisystem chronic inflammatory disorders with evidence that risk is associated with severity of inflammation. Clinical management of patients with chronic inflammatory disorders should seek to reduce cardiovascular risk.

Incidence and mortality of relapsing polychondritis in the UK: a population-based cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: Relapsing polychondritis is a rare disease characterized by cartilage inflammation. Our aim was to estimate the incidence, prevalence and mortality of relapsing polychondritis and describe the clinical features of relapsing polychondritis in a large population. METHODS: All participants diagnosed with relapsing polychondritis were sampled from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Prevalence and incidence rates for 1990-2012 were estimated. Relative mortality rates were estimated in a time-to-event framework using reference UK life tables. A questionnaire validation study assessed diagnostic accuracy. RESULTS: There were 117 participants with relapsing polychondritis ever recorded. Fifty (82%) of 61 cases were validated by a physician and unconfirmed cases were excluded. The analysis included 106 participants (42 men, 64 women) diagnosed with relapsing polychondritis. The mean age (range) at diagnosis in men was 55 (range 17-81) years and in women 51 (range 11-79) years. The median interval from first symptom to diagnosis was 1.9 years. The incidence of relapsing polychondritis between 1990 and 2012 was 0.71 (95% CI 0.55, 0.91) per million population per year. There were 19 deaths from any cause. There were 16 observed deaths eligible for survival analysis and 7.4 deaths expected for the UK population of the same age, sex and period. The standardized mortality ratio was 2.16 (95% CI 1.24, 3.51), P < 0.01. Respiratory disease, cardiac conditions and cancer were the most frequent causes of death. CONCLUSION: The incidence of relapsing polychondritis may be lower than previously estimated, and diagnostic misclassification and delay are common. Mortality in relapsing polychondritis is more than twice that of the general population.

Probability of an Obese Person Attaining Normal Body Weight: Cohort Study Using Electronic Health Records.

OBJECTIVES: We examined the probability of an obese person attaining normal body weight. METHODS: We drew a sample of individuals aged 20 years and older from the United Kingdom's Clinical Practice Research Datalink from 2004 to 2014. We analyzed data for 76,704 obese men and 99,791 obese women. We excluded participants who received bariatric surgery. We estimated the probability of attaining normal weight or 5% reduction in body weight. RESULTS: During a maximum of 9 years' follow-up, 1283 men and 2245 women attained normal body weight. In simple obesity (body mass index = 30.0-34.9 kg/m(2)), the annual probability of attaining normal weight was 1 in 210 for men and 1 in 124 for women, increasing to 1 in 1290 for men and 1 in 677 for women with morbid obesity (body mass index = 40.0-44.9 kg/m(2)). The annual probability of achieving a 5% weight reduction was 1 in 8 for men and 1 in 7 for women with morbid obesity. CONCLUSIONS: The probability of attaining normal weight or maintaining weight loss is low. Obesity treatment frameworks grounded in community-based weight management programs may be ineffective.