Dynamic imaging of nascent RNA reveals general principles of transcription dynamics and stochastic splice site selection.

The activities of RNA polymerase and the spliceosome are responsible for the heterogeneity in the abundance and isoform composition of mRNA in human cells. However, the dynamics of these megadalton enzymatic complexes working in concert on endogenous genes have not been described. Here, we establish a quasi-genome-scale platform for observing synthesis and processing kinetics of single nascent RNA molecules in real time. We find that all observed genes show transcriptional bursting. We also observe large kinetic variation in intron removal for single introns in single cells, which is inconsistent with deterministic splice site selection. Transcriptome-wide footprinting of the U2AF complex, nascent RNA profiling, long-read sequencing, and lariat sequencing further reveal widespread stochastic recursive splicing within introns. We propose and validate a unified theoretical model to explain the general features of transcription and pervasive stochastic splice site selection.

Intrinsic Dynamics of a Human Gene Reveal the Basis of Expression Heterogeneity.

Transcriptional regulation in metazoans occurs through long-range genomic contacts between enhancers and promoters, and most genes are transcribed in episodic "bursts" of RNA synthesis. To understand the relationship between these two phenomena and the dynamic regulation of genes in response to upstream signals, we describe the use of live-cell RNA imaging coupled with Hi-C measurements and dissect the endogenous regulation of the estrogen-responsive TFF1 gene. Although TFF1 is highly induced, we observe short active periods and variable inactive periods ranging from minutes to days. The heterogeneity in inactive times gives rise to the widely observed "noise" in human gene expression and explains the distribution of protein levels in human tissue. We derive a mathematical model of regulation that relates transcription, chromosome structure, and the cell's ability to sense changes in estrogen and predicts that hypervariability is largely dynamic and does not reflect a stable biological state.

Multiple models for outbreak decision support in the face of uncertainty.

Policymakers must make management decisions despite incomplete knowledge and conflicting model projections. Little guidance exists for the rapid, representative, and unbiased collection of policy-relevant scientific input from independent modeling teams. Integrating approaches from decision analysis, expert judgment, and model aggregation, we convened multiple modeling teams to evaluate COVID-19 reopening strategies for a mid-sized United States county early in the pandemic. Projections from seventeen distinct models were inconsistent in magnitude but highly consistent in ranking interventions. The 6-mo-ahead aggregate projections were well in line with observed outbreaks in mid-sized US counties. The aggregate results showed that up to half the population could be infected with full workplace reopening, while workplace restrictions reduced median cumulative infections by 82%. Rankings of interventions were consistent across public health objectives, but there was a strong trade-off between public health outcomes and duration of workplace closures, and no win-win intermediate reopening strategies were identified. Between-model variation was high; the aggregate results thus provide valuable risk quantification for decision making. This approach can be applied to the evaluation of management interventions in any setting where models are used to inform decision making. This case study demonstrated the utility of our approach and was one of several multimodel efforts that laid the groundwork for the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, which has provided multiple rounds of real-time scenario projections for situational awareness and decision making to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention since December 2020.

A mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 immunity predicts paxlovid rebound.

Nirmatrelvir/ritonavir (Paxlovid), an oral antiviral medication targeting SARS-CoV-2, remains an important treatment for COVID-19. Initial studies of nirmatrelvir/ritonavir were performed in SARS-CoV-2 unvaccinated patients without prior confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection; however, most individuals have now either been vaccinated and/or have experienced SARS-CoV-2 infection. After nirmatrelvir/ritonavir became widely available, reports surfaced of "Paxlovid rebound," a phenomenon in which symptoms (and SARS-CoV-2 test positivity) would initially resolve, but after finishing treatment, symptoms and test positivity would return. We used a previously described parsimonious mathematical model of immunity to SARS-CoV-2 infection to model the effect of nirmatrelvir/ritonavir treatment in unvaccinated and vaccinated patients. Model simulations show that viral rebound after treatment occurs only in vaccinated patients, while unvaccinated (SARS-COV-2 naïve) patients treated with nirmatrelvir/ritonavir do not experience any rebound in viral load. This work suggests that an approach combining parsimonious models of the immune system could be used to gain important insights in the context of emerging pathogens.

Single-Molecule Imaging Reveals a Switch between Spurious and Functional ncRNA Transcription.

Eukaryotic transcription is pervasive, and many of the resulting RNAs are non-coding. It is unknown whether ubiquitous transcription is functional or simply reflects stochastic transcriptional noise. By single-molecule visualization of the dynamic interplay between coding and non-coding transcription at the GAL locus in living yeast cells, we show that antisense GAL10 ncRNA transcription can switch between functional and spurious under different conditions. During galactose induction, GAL10 sense transcription occurs in short stochastic bursts, which are unaffected by transcription of antisense GAL10 ncRNA, even when both are present simultaneously at the same locus. In contrast, when GAL10 is not induced, ncRNA transcription is critical to prevent transcriptional leakage of GAL1 and GAL10. Suppression of ncRNA transcription by strand-specific CRISPR/dCas9 results in transcriptional leakage of the inducer GAL1, leading to a more sensitive transcription activation threshold, an alteration of metabolic switching, and a fitness defect in competition experiments.

Genomic analysis of diet composition finds novel loci and associations with health and lifestyle.

We conducted genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of relative intake from the macronutrients fat, protein, carbohydrates, and sugar in over 235,000 individuals of European ancestries. We identified 21 unique, approximately independent lead SNPs. Fourteen lead SNPs are uniquely associated with one macronutrient at genome-wide significance (P < 5 × 10-8), while five of the 21 lead SNPs reach suggestive significance (P < 1 × 10-5) for at least one other macronutrient. While the phenotypes are genetically correlated, each phenotype carries a partially unique genetic architecture. Relative protein intake exhibits the strongest relationships with poor health, including positive genetic associations with obesity, type 2 diabetes, and heart disease (rg ≈ 0.15-0.5). In contrast, relative carbohydrate and sugar intake have negative genetic correlations with waist circumference, waist-hip ratio, and neighborhood deprivation (|rg| ≈ 0.1-0.3) and positive genetic correlations with physical activity (rg ≈ 0.1 and 0.2). Relative fat intake has no consistent pattern of genetic correlations with poor health but has a negative genetic correlation with educational attainment (rg ≈-0.1). Although our analyses do not allow us to draw causal conclusions, we find no evidence of negative health consequences associated with relative carbohydrate, sugar, or fat intake. However, our results are consistent with the hypothesis that relative protein intake plays a role in the etiology of metabolic dysfunction.

Phase transitions may explain why SARS-CoV-2 spreads so fast and why new variants are spreading faster.

The novel coronavirus SARS CoV-2 responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic and SARS CoV-1 responsible for the SARS epidemic of 2002-2003 share an ancestor yet evolved to have much different transmissibility and global impact 1. A previously developed thermodynamic model of protein conformations hypothesized that SARS CoV-2 is very close to a new thermodynamic critical point, which makes it highly infectious but also easily displaced by a spike-based vaccine because there is a tradeoff between transmissibility and robustness 2. The model identified a small cluster of four key mutations of SARS CoV-2 that predicts much stronger viral attachment and viral spreading compared to SARS CoV-1. Here we apply the model to the SARS-CoV-2 variants Alpha (B.1.1.7), Beta (B.1.351), Gamma (P.1) and Delta (B.1.617.2)3 and predict, using no free parameters, how the new mutations will not diminish the effectiveness of current spike based vaccines and may even further enhance infectiousness by augmenting the binding ability of the virus.

Training Spiking Neural Networks in the Strong Coupling Regime.

Recurrent neural networks trained to perform complex tasks can provide insight into the dynamic mechanism that underlies computations performed by cortical circuits. However, due to a large number of unconstrained synaptic connections, the recurrent connectivity that emerges from network training may not be biologically plausible. Therefore, it remains unknown if and how biological neural circuits implement dynamic mechanisms proposed by the models. To narrow this gap, we developed a training scheme that, in addition to achieving learning goals, respects the structural and dynamic properties of a standard cortical circuit model: strongly coupled excitatory-inhibitory spiking neural networks. By preserving the strong mean excitatory and inhibitory coupling of initial networks, we found that most of trained synapses obeyed Dale's law without additional constraints, exhibited large trial-to-trial spiking variability, and operated in inhibition-stabilized regime. We derived analytical estimates on how training and network parameters constrained the changes in mean synaptic strength during training. Our results demonstrate that training recurrent neural networks subject to strong coupling constraints can result in connectivity structure and dynamic regime relevant to cortical circuits.

A mathematical model for persistent post-CSD vasoconstriction.

Cortical spreading depression (CSD) is the propagation of a relatively slow wave in cortical brain tissue that is linked to a number of pathological conditions such as stroke and migraine. Most of the existing literature investigates the dynamics of short term phenomena such as the depolarization and repolarization of membrane potentials or large ion shifts. Here, we focus on the clinically-relevant hour-long state of neurovascular malfunction in the wake of CSDs. This dysfunctional state involves widespread vasoconstriction and a general disruption of neurovascular coupling. We demonstrate, using a mathematical model, that dissolution of calcium that has aggregated within the mitochondria of vascular smooth muscle cells can drive an hour-long disruption. We model the rate of calcium clearance as well as the dynamical implications on overall blood flow. Based on reaction stoichiometry, we quantify a possible impact of calcium phosphate dissolution on the maintenance of F0F1-ATP synthase activity.

Before and beyond the Wilson-Cowan equations.

The Wilson-Cowan equations represent a landmark in the history of computational neuroscience. Along with the insights Wilson and Cowan offered for neuroscience, they crystallized an approach to modeling neural dynamics and brain function. Although their iconic equations are used in various guises today, the ideas that led to their formulation and the relationship to other approaches are not well known. Here, we give a little context to some of the biological and theoretical concepts that lead to the Wilson-Cowan equations and discuss how to extend beyond them.

The accuracy of LD Score regression as an estimator of confounding and genetic correlations in genome-wide association studies.

To infer that a single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) either affects a phenotype or is linkage disequilibrium with a causal site, we must have some assurance that any SNP-phenotype correlation is not the result of confounding with environmental variables that also affect the trait. In this study, we study the properties of linkage disequilibrium (LD) Score regression, a recently developed method for using summary statistics from genome-wide association studies to ensure that confounding does not inflate the number of false positives. We do not treat the effects of genetic variation as a random variable and thus are able to obtain results about the unbiasedness of this method. We demonstrate that LD Score regression can produce estimates of confounding at null SNPs that are unbiased or conservative under fairly general conditions. This robustness holds in the case of the parent genotype affecting the offspring phenotype through some environmental mechanism, despite the resulting correlation over SNPs between LD Scores and the degree of confounding. Additionally, we demonstrate that LD Score regression can produce reasonably robust estimates of the genetic correlation, even when its estimates of the genetic covariance and the two univariate heritabilities are substantially biased.

Asymmetric cell division-dominant neutral drift model for normal intestinal stem cell homeostasis.

The normal intestinal epithelium is continuously regenerated at a rapid rate from actively cycling Lgr5-expressing intestinal stem cells (ISCs) that reside at the crypt base. Recent mathematical modeling based on several lineage-tracing studies in mice shows that the symmetric cell division-dominant neutral drift model fits well with the observed in vivo growth of ISC clones and suggests that symmetric divisions are central to ISC homeostasis. However, other studies suggest a critical role for asymmetric cell division in the maintenance of ISC homeostasis in vivo. Here, we show that the stochastic branching and Moran process models with both a symmetric and asymmetric division mode not only simulate the stochastic growth of the ISC clone in silico but also closely fit the in vivo stem cell dynamics observed in lineage-tracing studies. In addition, the proposed model with highest probability for asymmetric division is more consistent with in vivo observations reported here and by others. Our in vivo studies of mitotic spindle orientations and lineage-traced progeny pairs indicate that asymmetric cell division is a dominant mode used by ISCs under normal homeostasis. Therefore, we propose the asymmetric cell division-dominant neutral drift model for normal ISC homeostasis. NEW & NOTEWORTHY The prevailing mathematical model suggests that intestinal stem cells (ISCs) divide symmetrically. The present study provides evidence that asymmetric cell division is the major contributor to ISC maintenance and thus proposes an asymmetric cell division-dominant neutral drift model. Consistent with this model, in vivo studies of mitotic spindle orientation and lineage-traced progeny pairs indicate that asymmetric cell division is the dominant mode used by ISCs under normal homeostasis.

Eukaryotic transcriptional dynamics: from single molecules to cell populations.

Transcriptional regulation is achieved through combinatorial interactions between regulatory elements in the human genome and a vast range of factors that modulate the recruitment and activity of RNA polymerase. Experimental approaches for studying transcription in vivo now extend from single-molecule techniques to genome-wide measurements. Parallel to these developments is the need for testable quantitative and predictive models for understanding gene regulation. These conceptual models must also provide insight into the dynamics of transcription and the variability that is observed at the single-cell level. In this Review, we discuss recent results on transcriptional regulation and also the models those results engender. We show how a non-equilibrium description informs our view of transcription by explicitly considering time- and energy-dependence at the molecular level.

Dynamics of chromatin accessibility and long-range interactions in response to glucocorticoid pulsing.

Although physiological steroid levels are often pulsatile (ultradian), the genomic effects of this pulsatility are poorly understood. By utilizing glucocorticoid receptor (GR) signaling as a model system, we uncovered striking spatiotemporal relationships between receptor loading, lifetimes of the DNase I hypersensitivity sites (DHSs), long-range interactions, and gene regulation. We found that hormone-induced DHSs were enriched within ± 50 kb of GR-responsive genes and displayed a broad spectrum of lifetimes upon hormone withdrawal. These lifetimes dictate the strength of the DHS interactions with gene targets and contribute to gene regulation from a distance. Our results demonstrate that pulsatile and constant hormone stimulations induce unique, treatment-specific patterns of gene and regulatory element activation. These modes of activation have implications for corticosteroid function in vivo and for steroid therapies in various clinical settings.

Kinetically Defined Mechanisms and Positions of Action of Two New Modulators of Glucocorticoid Receptor-regulated Gene Induction.

Most of the steps in, and many of the factors contributing to, glucocorticoid receptor (GR)-regulated gene induction are currently unknown. A competition assay, based on a validated chemical kinetic model of steroid hormone action, is now used to identify two new factors (BRD4 and negative elongation factor (NELF)-E) and to define their sites and mechanisms of action. BRD4 is a kinase involved in numerous initial steps of gene induction. Consistent with its complicated biochemistry, BRD4 is shown to alter both the maximal activity (Amax) and the steroid concentration required for half-maximal induction (EC50) of GR-mediated gene expression by acting at a minimum of three different kinetically defined steps. The action at two of these steps is dependent on BRD4 concentration, whereas the third step requires the association of BRD4 with P-TEFb. BRD4 is also found to bind to NELF-E, a component of the NELF complex. Unexpectedly, NELF-E modifies GR induction in a manner that is independent of the NELF complex. Several of the kinetically defined steps of BRD4 in this study are proposed to be related to its known biochemical actions. However, novel actions of BRD4 and of NELF-E in GR-controlled gene induction have been uncovered. The model-based competition assay is also unique in being able to order, for the first time, the sites of action of the various reaction components: GR < Cdk9 < BRD4 ≤ induced gene < NELF-E. This ability to order factor actions will assist efforts to reduce the side effects of steroid treatments.

Canonical Cortical Circuit Model Explains Rivalry, Intermittent Rivalry, and Rivalry Memory.

It has been shown that the same canonical cortical circuit model with mutual inhibition and a fatigue process can explain perceptual rivalry and other neurophysiological responses to a range of static stimuli. However, it has been proposed that this model cannot explain responses to dynamic inputs such as found in intermittent rivalry and rivalry memory, where maintenance of a percept when the stimulus is absent is required. This challenges the universality of the basic canonical cortical circuit. Here, we show that by including an overlooked realistic small nonspecific background neural activity, the same basic model can reproduce intermittent rivalry and rivalry memory without compromising static rivalry and other cortical phenomena. The background activity induces a mutual-inhibition mechanism for short-term memory, which is robust to noise and where fine-tuning of recurrent excitation or inclusion of sub-threshold currents or synaptic facilitation is unnecessary. We prove existence conditions for the mechanism and show that it can explain experimental results from the quartet apparent motion illusion, which is a prototypical intermittent rivalry stimulus.

Kinetically-defined component actions in gene repression.

Gene repression by transcription factors, and glucocorticoid receptors (GR) in particular, is a critical, but poorly understood, physiological response. Among the many unresolved questions is the difference between GR regulated induction and repression, and whether transcription cofactor action is the same in both. Because activity classifications based on changes in gene product level are mechanistically uninformative, we present a theory for gene repression in which the mechanisms of factor action are defined kinetically and are consistent for both gene repression and induction. The theory is generally applicable and amenable to predictions if the dose-response curve for gene repression is non-cooperative with a unit Hill coefficient, which is observed for GR-regulated repression of AP1LUC reporter induction by phorbol myristate acetate. The theory predicts the mechanism of GR and cofactors, and where they act with respect to each other, based on how each cofactor alters the plots of various kinetic parameters vs. cofactor. We show that the kinetically-defined mechanism of action of each of four factors (reporter gene, p160 coactivator TIF2, and two pharmaceuticals [NU6027 and phenanthroline]) is the same in GR-regulated repression and induction. What differs is the position of GR action. This insight should simplify clinical efforts to differentially modulate factor actions in gene induction vs. gene repression.

Modeling glucose and free fatty acid kinetics in glucose and meal tolerance test.

BACKGROUND: Quantitative evaluation of insulin regulation on plasma glucose and free fatty acid (FFA) in response to external glucose challenge is clinically important to assess the development of insulin resistance (World J Diabetes 1:36-47, 2010). Mathematical minimal models (MMs) based on insulin modified frequently-sampled intravenous glucose tolerance tests (IM-FSIGT) are widely applied to ascertain an insulin sensitivity index (IEEE Rev Biomed Eng 2:54-96, 2009). Furthermore, it is important to investigate insulin regulation on glucose and FFA in postprandial state as a normal physiological condition. A simple way to calculate the appearance rate (Ra) of glucose and FFA would be especially helpful to evaluate glucose and FFA kinetics for clinical applications. METHODS: A new MM is developed to simulate the insulin modulation of plasma glucose and FFA, combining IM-FSIGT with a mixed meal tolerance test (MT). A novel simple functional form for the appearance rate (Ra) of glucose or FFA in the MT is developed. Model results are compared with two other models for data obtained from 28 non-diabetic women (13 African American, 15 white). RESULTS: The new functional form for Ra of glucose is an acceptable empirical approximation to the experimental Ra for a subset of individuals. When both glucose and FFA are included in FSIGT and MT, the new model is preferred using the Bayes Information Criterion (BIC). CONCLUSIONS: Model simulations show that the new MM allows consistent application to both IM-FSIGT and MT data, balancing model complexity and data fitting. While the appearance of glucose in the circulation has an important effect on FFA kinetics in MT, the rate of appearance of FFA can be neglected for the time-period modeled.

Increased food energy supply as a major driver of the obesity epidemic: a global analysis.

OBJECTIVE: We investigated associations between changes in national food energy supply and in average population body weight. METHODS: We collected data from 24 high-, 27 middle- and 18 low-income countries on the average measured body weight from global databases, national health and nutrition survey reports and peer-reviewed papers. Changes in average body weight were derived from study pairs that were at least four years apart (various years, 1971-2010). Selected study pairs were considered to be representative of an adolescent or adult population, at national or subnational scale. Food energy supply data were retrieved from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations food balance sheets. We estimated the population energy requirements at survey time points using Institute of Medicine equations. Finally, we estimated the change in energy intake that could theoretically account for the observed change in average body weight using an experimentally-validated model. FINDINGS: In 56 countries, an increase in food energy supply was associated with an increase in average body weight. In 45 countries, the increase in food energy supply was higher than the model-predicted increase in energy intake. The association between change in food energy supply and change in body weight was statistically significant overall and for high-income countries (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: The findings suggest that increases in food energy supply are sufficient to explain increases in average population body weight, especially in high-income countries. Policy efforts are needed to improve the healthiness of food systems and environments to reduce global obesity.