Antarctica's wilderness fails to capture continent's biodiversity.

Recent assessments of Earth's dwindling wilderness have emphasized that Antarctica is a crucial wilderness in need of protection1,2. Yet human impacts on the continent are widespread3-5, the extent of its wilderness unquantified2 and the importance thereof for biodiversity conservation unknown. Here we assemble a comprehensive record of human activity (approximately 2.7 million records, spanning 200 years) and use it to quantify the extent of Antarctica's wilderness and its representation of biodiversity. We show that 99.6% of the continent's area can still be considered wilderness, but this area captures few biodiversity features. Pristine areas, free from human interference, cover a much smaller area (less than 32% of Antarctica) and are declining as human activity escalates6. Urgent expansion of Antarctica's network of specially protected areas7 can both reverse this trend and secure the continent's biodiversity8-10.

Tracking of marine predators to protect Southern Ocean ecosystems.

Southern Ocean ecosystems are under pressure from resource exploitation and climate change1,2. Mitigation requires the identification and protection of Areas of Ecological Significance (AESs), which have so far not been determined at the ocean-basin scale. Here, using assemblage-level tracking of marine predators, we identify AESs for this globally important region and assess current threats and protection levels. Integration of more than 4,000 tracks from 17 bird and mammal species reveals AESs around sub-Antarctic islands in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans and over the Antarctic continental shelf. Fishing pressure is disproportionately concentrated inside AESs, and climate change over the next century is predicted to impose pressure on these areas, particularly around the Antarctic continent. At present, 7.1% of the ocean south of 40°S is under formal protection, including 29% of the total AESs. The establishment and regular revision of networks of protection that encompass AESs are needed to provide long-term mitigation of growing pressures on Southern Ocean ecosystems.

Threat management priorities for conserving Antarctic biodiversity.

Antarctic terrestrial biodiversity faces multiple threats, from invasive species to climate change. Yet no large-scale assessments of threat management strategies exist. Applying a structured participatory approach, we demonstrate that existing conservation efforts are insufficient in a changing world, estimating that 65% (at best 37%, at worst 97%) of native terrestrial taxa and land-associated seabirds are likely to decline by 2100 under current trajectories. Emperor penguins are identified as the most vulnerable taxon, followed by other seabirds and dry soil nematodes. We find that implementing 10 key threat management strategies in parallel, at an estimated present-day equivalent annual cost of US$23 million, could benefit up to 84% of Antarctic taxa. Climate change is identified as the most pervasive threat to Antarctic biodiversity and influencing global policy to effectively limit climate change is the most beneficial conservation strategy. However, minimising impacts of human activities and improved planning and management of new infrastructure projects are cost-effective and will help to minimise regional threats. Simultaneous global and regional efforts are critical to secure Antarctic biodiversity for future generations.

Body size shapes song in honeyeaters.

Birdsongs are among the most distinctive animal signals. Their evolution is thought to be shaped simultaneously by habitat structure and by the constraints of morphology. Habitat structure affects song transmission and detectability, thus influencing song (the acoustic adaptation hypothesis), while body size and beak size and shape necessarily constrain song characteristics (the morphological constraint hypothesis). Yet, support for the acoustic adaptation and morphological constraint hypotheses remains equivocal, and their simultaneous examination is infrequent. Using a phenotypically diverse Australasian bird clade, the honeyeaters (Aves: Meliphagidae), we compile a dataset consisting of song, environmental, and morphological variables for 163 species and jointly examine predictions of these two hypotheses. Overall, we find that body size constrains song frequency and pace in honeyeaters. Although habitat type and environmental temperature influence aspects of song, that influence is indirect, likely via effects of environmental variation on body size, with some evidence that elevation constrains the evolution of song peak frequency. Our results demonstrate that morphology has an overwhelming influence on birdsong, in support of the morphological constraint hypothesis, with the environment playing a secondary role generally via body size rather than habitat structure. These results suggest that changing body size (a consequence of both global effects such as climate change and local effects such as habitat transformation) will substantially influence the nature of birdsong.

Fifty million years of beetle evolution along the Antarctic Polar Front.

Global cooling and glacial-interglacial cycles since Antarctica's isolation have been responsible for the diversification of the region's marine fauna. By contrast, these same Earth system processes are thought to have played little role terrestrially, other than driving widespread extinctions. Here, we show that on islands along the Antarctic Polar Front, paleoclimatic processes have been key to diversification of one of the world's most geographically isolated and unique groups of herbivorous beetles-Ectemnorhinini weevils. Combining phylogenomic, phylogenetic, and phylogeographic approaches, we demonstrate that these weevils colonized the sub-Antarctic islands from Africa at least 50 Ma ago and repeatedly dispersed among them. As the climate cooled from the mid-Miocene, diversification of the beetles accelerated, resulting in two species-rich clades. One of these clades specialized to feed on cryptogams, typical of the polar habitats that came to prevail under Miocene conditions yet remarkable as a food source for any beetle. This clade's most unusual representative is a marine weevil currently undergoing further speciation. The other clade retained the more common weevil habit of feeding on angiosperms, which likely survived glaciation in isolated refugia. Diversification of Ectemnorhinini weevils occurred in synchrony with many other Antarctic radiations, including penguins and notothenioid fishes, and coincided with major environmental changes. Our results thus indicate that geo-climatically driven diversification has progressed similarly for Antarctic marine and terrestrial organisms since the Miocene, potentially constituting a general biodiversity paradigm that should be sought broadly for the region's taxa.

Multiple energy sources and metabolic strategies sustain microbial diversity in Antarctic desert soils.

Numerous diverse microorganisms reside in the cold desert soils of continental Antarctica, though we lack a holistic understanding of the metabolic processes that sustain them. Here, we profile the composition, capabilities, and activities of the microbial communities in 16 physicochemically diverse mountainous and glacial soils. We assembled 451 metagenome-assembled genomes from 18 microbial phyla and inferred through Bayesian divergence analysis that the dominant lineages present are likely native to Antarctica. In support of earlier findings, metagenomic analysis revealed that the most abundant and prevalent microorganisms are metabolically versatile aerobes that use atmospheric hydrogen to support aerobic respiration and sometimes carbon fixation. Surprisingly, however, hydrogen oxidation in this region was catalyzed primarily by a phylogenetically and structurally distinct enzyme, the group 1l [NiFe]-hydrogenase, encoded by nine bacterial phyla. Through gas chromatography, we provide evidence that both Antarctic soil communities and an axenic Bacteroidota isolate (Hymenobacter roseosalivarius) oxidize atmospheric hydrogen using this enzyme. Based on ex situ rates at environmentally representative temperatures, hydrogen oxidation is theoretically sufficient for soil communities to meet energy requirements and, through metabolic water production, sustain hydration. Diverse carbon monoxide oxidizers and abundant methanotrophs were also active in the soils. We also recovered genomes of microorganisms capable of oxidizing edaphic inorganic nitrogen, sulfur, and iron compounds and harvesting solar energy via microbial rhodopsins and conventional photosystems. Obligately symbiotic bacteria, including Patescibacteria, Chlamydiae, and predatory Bdellovibrionota, were also present. We conclude that microbial diversity in Antarctic soils reflects the coexistence of metabolically flexible mixotrophs with metabolically constrained specialists.

Temperature change exerts sex-specific effects on behavioural variation.

Temperature is a key factor mediating organismal fitness and has important consequences for species' ecology. While the mean effects of temperature on behaviour have been well-documented in ectotherms, how temperature alters behavioural variation among and within individuals, and whether this differs between the sexes, remains unclear. Such effects likely have ecological and evolutionary consequences, given that selection acts at the individual level. We investigated the effect of temperature on individual-level behavioural variation and metabolism in adult male and female Drosophila melanogaster (n = 129), by taking repeated measures of locomotor activity and metabolic rate at both a standard temperature (25°C) and a high temperature (28°C). Males were moderately more responsive in their mean activity levels to temperature change when compared to females. However, this was not true for either standard or active metabolic rate, where no sex differences in thermal metabolic plasticity were found. Furthermore, higher temperatures increased both among- and within-individual variation in male, but not female, locomotor activity. Given that behavioural variation can be critical to population persistence, we suggest that future studies test whether sex differences in the amount of behavioural variation expressed in response to temperature change may result in sex-specific vulnerabilities to a warming climate.

Multiple introductions, polyploidy and mixed reproductive strategies are linked to genetic diversity and structure in the most widespread invasive plant across Southern Ocean archipelagos.

Biological invasions in remote areas that experience low human activity provide unique opportunities to elucidate processes responsible for invasion success. Here we study the most widespread invasive plant species across the isolated islands of the Southern Ocean, the annual bluegrass, Poa annua. To analyse geographical variation in genome size, genetic diversity and reproductive strategies, we sampled all major sub-Antarctic archipelagos in this region and generated microsatellite data for 470 individual plants representing 31 populations. We also estimated genome sizes for a subset of individuals using flow cytometry. Occasional events of island colonization are expected to result in high genetic structure among islands, overall low genetic diversity and increased self-fertilization, but we show that this is not the case for P. annua. Microsatellite data indicated low population genetic structure and lack of isolation by distance among the sub-Antarctic archipelagos we sampled, but high population structure within each archipelago. We identified high levels of genetic diversity, low clonality and low selfing rates in sub-Antarctic P. annua populations (contrary to rates typical of continental populations). In turn, estimates of selfing declined in populations as genetic diversity increased. Additionally, we found that most P. annua individuals are probably tetraploid and that only slight variation exists in genome size across the Southern Ocean. Our findings suggest multiple independent introductions of P. annua into the sub-Antarctic, which promoted the establishment of genetically diverse populations. Despite multiple introductions, the adoption of convergent reproductive strategies (outcrossing) happened independently in each major archipelago. The combination of polyploidy and a mixed reproductive strategy probably benefited P. annua in the Southern Ocean by increasing genetic diversity and its ability to cope with the novel environmental conditions.

Human activity strongly influences genetic dynamics of the most widespread invasive plant in the sub-Antarctic.

The link between the successful establishment of alien species and propagule pressure is well-documented. Less known is how humans influence the post-introduction dynamics of invasive alien populations. The latter requires studying parallel invasions by the same species in habitats that are differently impacted by humans. We analysed microsatellite and genome size variation, and then compared the genetic diversity and structure of invasive Poa annua L. on two sub-Antarctic islands: human-occupied Marion Island and unoccupied Prince Edward Island. We also carried out niche modelling to map the potential distribution of the species on both islands. We found high levels of genetic diversity and evidence for extensive admixture between genetically distinct lineages of P. annua on Marion Island. By contrast, the Prince Edward Island populations showed low genetic diversity, no apparent admixture, and had smaller genomes. On both islands, high genetic diversity was apparent at human landing sites, and on Marion Island, also around human settlements, suggesting that these areas received multiple introductions and/or acted as initial introduction sites and secondary sources (bridgeheads) for invasive populations. More than 70 years of continuous human activity associated with a meteorological station on Marion Island led to a distribution of this species around human settlements and along footpaths, which facilitates ongoing gene flow among geographically separated populations. By contrast, this was not the case for Prince Edward Island, where P. annua populations showed high genetic structure. The high levels of genetic variation and admixture in P. annua facilitated by human activity, coupled with high habitat suitability on both islands, suggest that P. annua is likely to increase its distribution and abundance in the future.

The rising threat of climate change for arthropods from Earth's cold regions: Taxonomic rather than native status drives species sensitivity.

Polar and alpine regions are changing rapidly with global climate change. Yet, the impacts on biodiversity, especially on the invertebrate ectotherms which are dominant in these areas, remain poorly understood. Short-term extreme temperature events, which are growing in frequency, are expected to have profound impacts on high-latitude ectotherms, with native species being less resilient than their alien counterparts. Here, we examined in the laboratory the effects of short periodic exposures to thermal extremes on survival responses of seven native and two non-native invertebrates from the sub-Antarctic Islands. We found that survival of dipterans was significantly reduced under warming exposures, on average having median lethal times (LT50 ) of about 30 days in control conditions, which declined to about 20 days when exposed to daily short-term maxima of 24°C. Conversely, coleopterans were either not, or were less, affected by the climatic scenarios applied, with predicted LT50 as high as 65 days under the warmest condition (daily exposures at 28°C for 2 h). The native spider Myro kerguelensis was characterized by an intermediate sensitivity when subjected to short-term daily heat maxima. Our results unexpectedly revealed a taxonomic influence, with physiological sensitivity to heat differing between higher level taxa, but not between native and non-native species representing the same higher taxon. The survival of a non-native carabid beetle under the experimentally imposed conditions was very high, but similar to that of native beetles, while native and non-native flies also exhibited very similar sensitivity to warming. As dipterans are a major element of diversity of sub-Antarctic, Arctic and other cold ecosystems, such observations suggest that the increased occurrence of extreme, short-term, thermal events could lead to large-scale restructuring of key terrestrial ecosystem components both in ecosystems protected from and those exposed to the additional impacts of biological invasions.

Emerging biological archives can reveal ecological and climatic change in Antarctica.

Anthropogenic climate change is causing observable changes in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean including increased air and ocean temperatures, glacial melt leading to sea-level rise and a reduction in salinity, and changes to freshwater water availability on land. These changes impact local Antarctic ecosystems and the Earth's climate system. The Antarctic has experienced significant past environmental change, including cycles of glaciation over the Quaternary Period (the past ~2.6 million years). Understanding Antarctica's paleoecosystems, and the corresponding paleoenvironments and climates that have shaped them, provides insight into present day ecosystem change, and importantly, helps constrain model projections of future change. Biological archives such as extant moss beds and peat profiles, biological proxies in lake and marine sediments, vertebrate animal colonies, and extant terrestrial and benthic marine invertebrates, complement other Antarctic paleoclimate archives by recording the nature and rate of past ecological change, the paleoenvironmental drivers of that change, and constrain current ecosystem and climate models. These archives provide invaluable information about terrestrial ice-free areas, a key location for Antarctic biodiversity, and the continental margin which is important for understanding ice sheet dynamics. Recent significant advances in analytical techniques (e.g., genomics, biogeochemical analyses) have led to new applications and greater power in elucidating the environmental records contained within biological archives. Paleoecological and paleoclimate discoveries derived from biological archives, and integration with existing data from other paleoclimate data sources, will significantly expand our understanding of past, present, and future ecological change, alongside climate change, in a unique, globally significant region.

A multi-site method to capture turnover in rare to common interactions in bipartite species networks.

Ecological network structure is maintained by a generalist core of common species. However, rare species contribute substantially to both the species and functional diversity of networks. Capturing changes in species composition and interactions, measured as turnover, is central to understanding the contribution of rare and common species and their interactions. Due to a large contribution of rare interactions, the pairwise metrics used to quantify interaction turnover are, however, sensitive to compositional change in the interactions of, often rare, peripheral specialists rather than common generalists in the network. Here we expand on pairwise interaction turnover using a multi-site metric that enables quantifying turnover in rare to common interactions (in terms of occurrence of interactions). The metric further separates this turnover into interaction turnover due to species turnover and interaction rewiring. We demonstrate the application and value of this method using a host-parasitoid system sampled along gradients of environmental modification. In the study system, both the type and amount of habitat needed to maintain interaction composition depended on the properties of the interactions considered, that is, from rare to common. The analyses further revealed the potential of host switching to prevent or delay species loss, and thereby buffer the system from perturbation. Multi-site interaction turnover provides a comprehensive measure of network change that can, for example, detect ecological thresholds to habitat loss for rare to common interactions. Accurate description of turnover in common, in addition to rare, species and their interactions is particularly relevant for understanding how network structure and function can be maintained.

Improving species-based area protection in Antarctica.

Area protection is a major mechanism deployed for environmental conservation in Antarctica. Yet, the Antarctic protected areas network is widely acknowledged as inadequate, in part because the criteria for area protection south of 60°S are not fully applied. The most poorly explored of these criteria is the type locality of species, which provides the primary legal means for Antarctic species-based area protection and a method for conserving species even if little is known about their habitat or distribution. The type locality criterion has not been systematically assessed since its incorporation into the Protocol on Environmental Protection to the Antarctic Treaty in 1991, so the extent to which the criterion is being met or might be useful for area protection is largely unknown. To address the matter, we created and analyzed a comprehensive database of Antarctic type localities of terrestrial and lacustrine lichens, plants, and animals. We compiled the database via a literature search of key taxonomic and geographic terms and then analyzed the distance between type localities identifiable to a ≤ 25km2 resolution and current Antarctic Specially Protected Areas (ASPAs) and human infrastructure. We used a distance-clustering approach for localities outside current ASPAs to determine candidate protected areas that could contain these unprotected localities. Of the 386 type localities analyzed, 108 were within or overlapped current ASPAs. Inclusion of the remaining 278 type localities in the ASPA network would require the designation of a further 105 protected areas. Twenty-four of these areas included human infrastructure disturbance. Given the slow rate of ASPA designation, growing pace of human impacts on the continent, and the management burden associated with ASPAs, we propose ways in which the type locality criterion might best be deployed. These include a comprehensive, systematic conservation planning approach and an alternative emphasis on the habitat of species, rather than on a single locality.

Mejoría de la Protección Basada en Especies de Áreas en la Antártida Resumen La protección de áreas es un mecanismo importante implementado para la conservación ambiental en la Antártida. Sin embargo, generalmente se identifica como inadecuada a la red de áreas antárticas protegidas porque no se aplican totalmente los criterios para la protección de áreas al sur de los 60°S. De estos criterios, el menos explorado es el de la localidad tipo de las especies, el cual proporciona el principal medio legal para la protección basada en las especies de áreas en la Antártica y un método para la conservación de especies, incluso si se sabe poco sobre su hábitat o distribución. El criterio de la localidad tipo no ha sido evaluado sistemáticamente desde que se incorporó al Protocolo Ambiental del Tratado Antártico en 1991, por lo que se desconoce en gran parte el grado al que se cumple el criterio o cuán útil podría ser para proteger el área. Creamos y analizamos una base de datos integral de las localidades tipo de líquenes, plantas, y animales terrestres y lacustres para abordar este tema. Compilamos la base de datos a partir de la búsqueda de términos geográficos y taxonómicos relevantes en la literatura y después analizamos la distancia entre las localidades tipo identificables a una resolución ≤25km2 y las Áreas Especialmente Protegidas de la Antártida (AEPA) existentes y la infraestructura humana. Usamos una estrategia de agrupamiento de distancias para las localidades externas a las AEPA existentes para determinar áreas protegidas candidatas que podrían albergar estas localidades sin protección. De las 386 las localidades tipo analizadas, 108 estaban dentro de o se traslaparon con las AEPA existentes. La inclusión de las otras 278 localidades tipo dentro de la red AEPA requeriría de la designación de 105 áreas adicionales. En 24 de estas áreas existieron alteraciones por la infraestructura humana. Debido al ritmo lento de designación de AEPA, el avance del impacto humano en el continente y el costo de la gestión asociado con las AEPA, proponemos algunas formas en las que podría implementarse de mejor manera el criterio de la localidad tipo. Estas formas incluyen una estrategia sistemática e integral de la planeación de la conservación y un énfasis alternativo en el hábitat de la especie en lugar de en una sola localidad.

Male Mediterranean fruit flies prefer warmer temperatures that improve sexual performance.

Females and males have divergent strategies of energy investment, so the thermal preference of each sex in insects may differ because energetic conversion of metabolic reserves is dependent on temperature. We determined the thermal preference of virgin, sexually mature Mediterranean fruit flies, Ceratitis capitata, and found that males preferred a significantly higher temperature (23.8 ± 0.3 °C) than that of females (22.1 ± 0.3 °C). We then tested predictions for the difference in thermal preference related to the energetic demands of reproduction over a range of temperatures. The frequency and duration of calling bouts by male C. capitata were optimal at 26 °C. Mating propensity and latency, and copula duration, were optimal over the range of 22-28 °C. When mating occurred, temperature had little effect on the incidence of sperm storage by females, but there was a notable decline in the number stored at 28 °C. Female lifespan was highest at 18 °C, but lifetime egg production was optimal at 24 °C. These results illustrate temperature-related differences in the reproductive fitness of the sexes in C. capitata, although the optima for male traits align best with their thermal preference. They also support the theoretical prediction that insect thermal preference should be lower than the optimum for fitness.

Tracheal branching in ants is area-decreasing, violating a central assumption of network transport models.

The structure of tubular transport networks is thought to underlie much of biological regularity, from individuals to ecosystems. A core assumption of transport network models is either area-preserving or area-increasing branching, such that the summed cross-sectional area of all child branches is equal to or greater than the cross-sectional area of their respective parent branch. For insects, the most diverse group of animals, the assumption of area-preserving branching of tracheae is, however, based on measurements of a single individual and an assumption of gas exchange by diffusion. Here we show that ants exhibit neither area-preserving nor area-increasing branching in their abdominal tracheal systems. We find for 20 species of ants that the sum of child tracheal cross-sectional areas is typically less than that of the parent branch (area-decreasing). The radius, rather than the area, of the parent branch is conserved across the sum of child branches. Interpretation of the tracheal system as one optimized for the release of carbon dioxide, while readily catering to oxygen demand, explains the branching pattern. Our results, together with widespread demonstration that gas exchange in insects includes, and is often dominated by, convection, indicate that for generality, network transport models must include consideration of systems with different architectures.

An unusually diverse genus of Collembola in the Cape Floristic Region characterised by substantial desiccation tolerance.

Trait-environment interactions have contributed to the remarkable plant radiations in the Cape Floristic Region (CFR) of southern Africa. Whether such interactions have also resulted in the diversification of the invertebrate fauna, independently of direct associations with plants is, however, not clear. One candidate where this may be the case is the unusually diverse Collembola genus Seira. Including 89 species in the CFR, many of which are localised habitat specialists, this genus includes many species inhabiting the warm, dry fynbos shrubland-a habitat atypical of usually desiccation-sensitive Collembola. Here, we investigate whether desiccation tolerance may have contributed to the considerable diversity of Seira in the CFR. First, we demonstrate, by measuring vapour pressure deficits (VPD) of the species' microhabitats (fynbos shrubland and moister Afrotemperate Forests), that the fynbos shrublands are dry environments (mean ± S.E. maximum VPD 5.2 ± 0.1 kPa) compared with the Afrotemperate Forest patches (0.3 ± 0.02 kPa) during the summer activity period of Seira. Then we show that Seira species living in these shrublands are more desiccation tolerant (mean ± S.E. survival time at 76% relative humidity: 74.3 ± 3.3 h) than their congeners in the cooler, moister Afrotemperate Forests (34.3 ± 2.8 h), and compared with Collembola species globally (3.7 ± 0.2 h). These results, and a previous demonstration of pronounced thermal tolerance in the fynbos shrubland species, suggest that the diversity of Seira in the CFR is at least partly due to pronounced desiccation and thermal tolerance, which has enabled species in the genus to exploit the hot and dry habitats of the CFR.

The changing form of Antarctic biodiversity.

Antarctic biodiversity is much more extensive, ecologically diverse and biogeographically structured than previously thought. Understanding of how this diversity is distributed in marine and terrestrial systems, the mechanisms underlying its spatial variation, and the significance of the microbiota is growing rapidly. Broadly recognizable drivers of diversity variation include energy availability and historical refugia. The impacts of local human activities and global environmental change nonetheless pose challenges to the current and future understanding of Antarctic biodiversity. Life in the Antarctic and the Southern Ocean is surprisingly rich, and as much at risk from environmental change as it is elsewhere.

Basal resistance enhances warming tolerance of alien over indigenous species across latitude.

Soil systems are being increasingly exposed to the interactive effects of biological invasions and climate change, with rising temperatures expected to benefit alien over indigenous species. We assessed this expectation for an important soil-dwelling group, the springtails, by determining whether alien species show broader thermal tolerance limits and greater tolerance to climate warming than their indigenous counterparts. We found that, from the tropics to the sub-Antarctic, alien species have the broadest thermal tolerances and greatest tolerance to environmental warming. Both groups of species show little phenotypic plasticity or potential for evolutionary change in tolerance to high temperature. These trait differences between alien and indigenous species suggest that biological invasions will exacerbate the impacts of climate change on soil systems, with profound implications for terrestrial ecosystem functioning.

Sub-critical limits are viable alternatives to critical thermal limits.

Thermal traits are frequently used to explain variation in species distributions, abundance, and sensitivity to climate change. Due to their utility and ease of measurement, critical thermal limits in particular have proliferated across the ecophysiological literature. Critical limit assays can, however, have deleterious or even lethal effects on individuals and there is growing recognition that intermediate metrics of performance can provide a further, nuanced understanding of how species interact with their environments. Meanwhile, the scarcity of data describing sub-critical or voluntary limits, which have been proposed as alternatives to critical limits and can be collected under less extreme conditions, reduces their value in comparative analyses and broad-scale syntheses. To overcome these limitations and determine if sub-critical limits are viable proxies for upper and lower critical thermal limits we measured and compared the critical and sub-critical thermal limits of 2023 ants representing 51 species. Sub-critical limits in isolation were a satisfactory linear predictor for both individual and species critical limits and when species identity was also considered there were substantial gains in variance explained. These gains indicate that a species-specific conversion factor can further improve estimates of critical traits using sub-critical proxies. Sub-critical limits can, therefore, be integrated into broader syntheses of critical limits and confidently used to calculate common ecological metrics, such as warming tolerance, so long as uncertainty in estimates is explicitly acknowledged. Although lower thermal traits exhibited more variation than their upper counterparts, the stronger phylogenetic signal of lower thermal traits indicates that appropriate conversions for lower thermal traits can be inferred from congenerics or other closely related taxa.

Wind plays a major but not exclusive role in the prevalence of insect flight loss on remote islands.

Terrestrial species on islands often show reduced dispersal abilities. For insects, the generality of explanations for island flight loss remains contentious. Although habitat stability is considered the most plausible explanation, others are frequently highlighted. Adopting a strong inference approach, we examined the hypotheses proposed to account for the prevalence of flightlessness in island insect assemblages, for a region long suspected to be globally unusual in this regard-the Southern Ocean Islands (SOIs). Combining comprehensive faunal inventories, species' morphological information, and environmental variables from 28 SOIs, we provide the first quantitative evidence that flightlessness is exceptionally prevalent among indigenous SOI insect species (47%). Prevalence among species which have evolved elsewhere is much lower: Arctic island species (8%), species introduced to the SOIs (17%), and globally (estimated as approx. 5%). Variation in numbers of flightless species and genera across islands is best explained by variation in wind speed, although habitat stability (thermal seasonality proxy) may play a role. Variables associated with insularity, such as island size, are generally poor predictors of flightlessness. The outcomes redirect attention to Darwin's wind hypothesis. They suggest, however, that wind selects for flightlessness through an energy trade-off between flight and reproduction, instead of by displacement from suitable habitats.