Breathlessness Predicts Mortality in Adults: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Breathlessness is a commonly encountered symptom, and although its relationship with mortality is well established for many conditions, less clear is this relationship in healthy adults. This systematic review and meta-analysis examines whether breathlessness is associated with mortality in a general population. This is important in understanding the impact of this common symptom on a patient's prognosis. This review was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42023394104). Medline, EMBASE, CINAHL and EMCARE were searched for the terms 'breathlessness' and 'survival' or 'mortality' on January 24, 2023. Longitudinal studies of >1,000 healthy adults comparing mortality between breathless and non-breathless controls were eligible for inclusion. If an estimate of effect size was provided, studies were included in the meta-analysis. Eligible studies underwent critical appraisal, data extraction and risk of bias assessment. A pooled effect size was estimated for the relationship between the presence of breathlessness and mortality and levels of severity of breathlessness and mortality. Of 1,993 studies identified, 21 were eligible for inclusion in the systematic review and 19 for the meta-analysis. Studies were of good quality with a low risk of bias, and the majority controlled for important confounders. Most studies identified a significant relationship between the presence of breathlessness and increased mortality. A pooled effect size was estimated, with the presence of breathlessness increasing the risk of mortality by 43% (risk ratio (RR): 1.43, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.28-1.61). As breathlessness severity increased from mild to severe, mortality increased by 30% (RR: 1.30, 95% CI: 1.21-1.38) and 103%, respectively (RR: 2.03, 95% CI: 1.75-2.35). The same trend was seen when breathlessness was measured using the modified Medical Research Council (mMRC) Dyspnoea Scale: mMRC grade 1 conferred a 26% increased mortality risk (RR: 1.26, 95% CI: 1.16-1.37) compared with 155% for grade 4 (RR: 2.55, 95% CI: 1.86-3.50). We conclude that mortality is associated with the presence of breathlessness and its severity. The mechanism underlying this is unclear and may reflect the ubiquity of breathlessness as a symptom of many diseases.

Protocol of the process evaluation of cluster randomised control trial for estimating the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a complex intervention to increase care home staff influenza vaccination rates compared to usual practice (FluCare).

BACKGROUND: Influenza (flu) vaccination rates in UK care home staff are extremely low. Less than 40% of staff in care homes are vaccinated for influenza (flu), presenting risks to the health of frail residents and potential staff absence from cross-infection. Staff often do not perceive a need for vaccination and are unaware they are entitled to free flu vaccination. The FluCare study, a cluster randomised control trial (RCT), uses behavioural interventions to address barriers. Videos, posters, and leaflets are intended to raise awareness of flu vaccination benefits and debunk myths. On-site staff vaccination clinics increase accessibility. Financial incentives to care homes for improved vaccination rates and regular monitoring influence the environment. This paper outlines the planned process evaluation which will describe the intervention's mechanisms of action, explain any changes in outcomes, identify local adaptations, and inform design of the implementation phase. METHODS/DESIGN: A mixed method process evaluation to inform the interpretation of trial findings. OBJECTIVES: • Describe the intervention as delivered in terms of dose and fidelity, including adaptations and variations across care homes. • Explore the effects of individual intervention components on primary outcomes. • Investigate the mechanisms of impact. • Describe the perceived effectiveness of relevant intervention components (including videos, leaflets, posters, and flu clinics) from participant perspectives (care home manager, care home staff, flu clinic providers). • Describe the characteristics of care homes and participants to assess reach. A purposive sample of twenty care homes (ten in the intervention arm, ten in the control arm) for inclusion in the process evaluation. Data will include (1) study records including care home site profiles, (2) responses to a mechanism of action questionnaire, and (3) semi-structured interviews with care home staff and clinic providers. Quantitative data will be descriptively reported. Interview data will be thematically analysed and then categories mapped to the Theoretical Domains Framework. DISCUSSION: Adopting this systematic and comprehensive process evaluation approach will help ensure data is captured on all aspects of the trial, enabling a full understanding of the intervention implementation and RCT findings. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN ISRCTN22729870. Registered on 24 August 2022.

El Niño physics and El Niño predictability.

Much of the year-to-year climate variability on the Earth is associated with El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This variability is generated primarily by a coupled ocean-atmosphere instability near the eastern edge of the western equatorial Pacific warm pool. Here, I discuss the physics of this variability, including its phase locking to the seasonal cycle. ENSO growth typically occurs from April/May to November, and by July the perturbation is usually strong enough that it persists to the beginning of the following year, when ENSO events usually end. Consequently, predicting ENSO is easy from July to February but is more challenging across the April/May transition to the next event. I discuss precursors of this transition and recent results from dynamical and statistical models used for ENSO forecasting.