Global fishery prospects under contrasting management regimes.

Data from 4,713 fisheries worldwide, representing 78% of global reported fish catch, are analyzed to estimate the status, trends, and benefits of alternative approaches to recovering depleted fisheries. For each fishery, we estimate current biological status and forecast the impacts of contrasting management regimes on catch, profit, and biomass of fish in the sea. We estimate unique recovery targets and trajectories for each fishery, calculate the year-by-year effects of alternative recovery approaches, and model how alternative institutional reforms affect recovery outcomes. Current status is highly heterogeneous-the median fishery is in poor health (overfished, with further overfishing occurring), although 32% of fisheries are in good biological, although not necessarily economic, condition. Our business-as-usual scenario projects further divergence and continued collapse for many of the world's fisheries. Applying sound management reforms to global fisheries in our dataset could generate annual increases exceeding 16 million metric tons (MMT) in catch, $53 billion in profit, and 619 MMT in biomass relative to business as usual. We also find that, with appropriate reforms, recovery can happen quickly, with the median fishery taking under 10 y to reach recovery targets. Our results show that commonsense reforms to fishery management would dramatically improve overall fish abundance while increasing food security and profits.

Unseen overlap between fishing vessels and top predators in the northeast Pacific.

Accurate assessments of human-wildlife risk associated with industrial fishing are critical for the conservation of marine top predators. Automatic Identification System (AIS) data provide a means of mapping fishing and estimating human-wildlife risk; however, risk can be obscured by gaps in the AIS record due to technical issues and intentional disabling. We assessed the extent to which unseen fishing vessel activity due to AIS gaps obscured estimates of overlap between fishing vessel activity and 14 marine predators including sharks, tunas, mammals, seabirds, and critically endangered leatherback turtles. Among vessels equipped with AIS in the northeast Pacific, up to 24% of total predator overlap with fishing vessel activity was unseen, and up to 36% was unseen for some individual species. Waters near 10°N had high unseen overlap with sharks yet low reported shark catch, revealing potential discrepancies in self-reported datasets. Accounting for unseen fishing vessel activity illuminates hidden human-wildlife risk, demonstrating challenges and solutions for transparent and sustainable marine fisheries.

Hot spots of unseen fishing vessels.

Illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing incurs an annual cost of up to US$25 billion in economic losses, results in substantial losses of aquatic life, and has been linked to human rights violations. Vessel tracking data from the automatic identification system (AIS) are powerful tools for combating IUU, yet AIS transponders can be disabled, reducing its efficacy as a surveillance tool. We present a global dataset of AIS disabling in commercial fisheries, which obscures up to 6% (>4.9 M hours) of vessel activity. Disabling hot spots were located near the exclusive economic zones (EEZs) of Argentina and West African nations and in the Northwest Pacific, all regions of IUU concern. Disabling was highest near transshipment hot spots and near EEZ boundaries, particularly contested ones. We also found links between disabling and location hiding from competitors and pirates. These inferences on where and why activities are obscured provide valuable information to improve fisheries management.

Marine seafood production via intense exploitation and cultivation in China: Costs, benefits, and risks.

Identifying strategies to maintain seafood supply is central to global food supply. China is the world's largest producer of seafood and has used a variety of production methods in the ocean including domestic capture fisheries, aquaculture (both freshwater and marine), stock enhancement, artificial reef building, and distant water fisheries. Here we survey the outcomes of China's marine seafood production strategies, with particular attention paid to the associated costs, benefits, and risks. Benefits identified include high production, low management costs, and high employment, but significant costs and risks were also identified. For example, a majority of fish in China's catches are one year-old, ecosystem and catch composition has changed relative to the past, wild and farmed stocks can interact both negatively and positively, distant water fisheries are a potential source of conflict, and disease has caused crashes in mariculture farms. Reforming China's wild capture fisheries management toward strategies used by developed nations would continue to shift the burden of production to aquaculture and could have negative social impacts due to differences in fishing fleet size and behavior, ecosystem structure, and markets. Consequently, China may need to develop novel management methods in reform efforts, rather than rely on examples from other large seafood producing countries. Improved accounting of production from fisheries and aquaculture, harmonization and centralization of historical data sets and systematic scientific surveys would improve the knowledge base for planning and evaluating future reform.

Protecting marine mammals, turtles, and birds by rebuilding global fisheries.

Reductions in global fishing pressure are needed to end overfishing of target species and maximize the value of fisheries. We ask whether such reductions would also be sufficient to protect non-target species threatened as bycatch. We compare changes in fishing pressure needed to maximize profits from 4713 target fish stocks-accounting for >75% of global catch-to changes in fishing pressure needed to reverse ongoing declines of 20 marine mammal, sea turtle, and seabird populations threatened as bycatch. We project that maximizing fishery profits would halt or reverse declines of approximately half of these threatened populations. Recovering the other populations would require substantially greater effort reductions or targeting improvements. Improving commercial fishery management could thus yield important collateral benefits for threatened bycatch species globally.