RESUMEN
The coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic challenges public health systems around the world. Tropical countries will face complex epidemiological scenarios involving the simultaneous transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) with viruses transmitted by Aedes aegypti. The occurrence of arboviral diseases with COVID-19 in the Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region presents challenges and opportunities for strengthening health services, surveillance and control programs. Financing of training, equipment and reconversion of hospital spaces will have a negative effect on already the limited resource directed to the health sector. The strengthening of the diagnostic infrastructure reappears as an opportunity for the national reference laboratories. Sharing of epidemiological information for the modeling of epidemiological scenarios allows collaboration between health, academic and scientific institutions. The fear of contagion by COVID-19 is constraining people with arboviral diseases to search for care which can lead to an increase in serious cases and could disrupt the operation of vector-control programs due to the reluctance of residents to open their doors to health personnel. Promoting intense community participation along with the incorporation of long lasting innovations in vector control offers new opportunities for control. The COVID-19 pandemic offers challenges and opportunities that must provoke positive behavioral changes and encourage more permanent self-care actions.
Asunto(s)
Aedes/microbiología , Aedes/virología , Infecciones por Coronavirus , Coronavirus , Dengue/prevención & control , Pandemias , Neumonía Viral , Fiebre Amarilla/prevención & control , Américas , Animales , Betacoronavirus , COVID-19 , Región del Caribe , Infecciones por Coronavirus/epidemiología , Humanos , Mosquitos Vectores , Neumonía Viral/epidemiología , SARS-CoV-2RESUMEN
OBJECTIVE: Since the 1980s, dengue incidence has increased 30-fold. However, in 2017, there was a noticeable reduction in reported dengue incidence cases within the Americas, including severe and fatal cases. Understanding the mechanism underlying dengue's incidence and decline in the Americas is vital for public health planning. We aimed to provide plausible explanations for the decline in 2017. METHODS: An expert panel of representatives from scientific and academic institutions, Ministry of Health officials from Latin America and PAHO/WHO staff met in October 2017 to propose hypotheses. The meeting employed six moderated plenary discussions in which participants reviewed epidemiological evidence, suggested explanatory hypotheses, offered their expert opinions on each and developed a consensus. RESULTS: The expert group established that in 2017, there was a generalised decreased incidence, severity and number of deaths due to dengue in the Americas, accompanied by a reduction in reported cases of both Zika and chikungunya virus infections, with no change in distribution among age groups affected. This decline was determined to be unlikely due to changes in epidemiological surveillance systems, as similar designs of surveillance systems exist across the region. Although sudden surveillance disruption is possible at a country or regional level, it is unlikely to occur in all countries simultaneously. Retrospective modelling with epidemiological, immunological and entomological information is needed. Host or immunological factors may have influenced the decline in dengue cases at the population level through immunity; however, herd protection requires additional evidence. Uncertainty remains regarding the effect on the outcome of sequential infections of different dengue virus (DENV) types and Zika virus (ZIKV), and vice versa. Future studies were recommended that examine the epidemiological effect of prior DENV infection on Zika incidence and severity, the epidemiological effect of prior Zika virus infection on dengue incidence and severity, immune correlates based on new-generation ELISA assays, and impact of prior DENV/other arbovirus infection on ZIKV immune response in relation to number of infections and the duration of antibodies in relation to interval of protection. Follow-up studies should also investigate whether increased vector control intensification activities contributed to the decline in transmission of one or more of these arboviruses. Additionally, proposed studies should focus on the potential role of vector competence when simultaneously exposed to various arboviruses, and on entomological surveillance and its impact on circulating vector species, with a goal of applying specific measures that mitigate seasonal occurrence or outbreaks. CONCLUSIONS: Multifactorial events may have accounted for the decline in dengue seen in 2017. Differing elements might explain the reduction in dengue including elements of immunity, increased vector control, and even vector and\or viruses changes or adaptations. Most of the results of this expert consensus group meeting are hypothetical and based on limited evidence. Further studies are needed.
OBJECTIF: Depuis les années 1980, l'incidence de la dengue a été multipliée par 30. Cependant, en 2017, il y a eu une réduction notable du nombre de cas d'incidence de dengue rapportés dans les Amériques. Nous voulions fournir des explications plausibles à la baisse en 2017. MÉTHODES: Un groupe d'experts constitué de représentants d'institutions scientifiques et académiques, d'officiels des Ministères de la Santé d'Amérique Latine et de membres du personnel de l'OPS/OMS s'est réuni en octobre 2017 pour proposer et évaluer des hypothèses. RÉSULTATS: En 2017, il y a eu une baisse généralisée de l'incidence, de la sévérité et du nombre de décès dus à la dengue dans les Amériques, accompagnée d'une réduction des cas rapportés d'infections par le virus Zika et par le virus du chikungunya, sans modification dans la répartition entre les groupes d'âge affectés. Il a été déterminé que ce déclin était peu probablement dû aux changements dans les systèmes de surveillance épidémiologique, étant donné que des systèmes de surveillance similaires existaient dans toute la région. Bien que des perturbations soudaines dans la surveillance soient possibles au niveau national ou régional, il est peu probable que cela se produise simultanément dans tous les pays. Une modélisation rétrospective avec des informations épidémiologiques, immunologiques et entomologiques est nécessaire. Des facteurs liés à l'hôte ou immunologiques peuvent avoir influencé le déclin des cas de dengue au niveau de la population par le biais de l'immunité; cependant, l'évidence d'une protection conférée par l'effet du troupeau nécessite des données supplémentaires. Une incertitude subsiste quant à l'effet sur le résultat des infections séquentielles de différents types du virus de la dengue (DENV) et du virus Zika (ZIKV), et vice-versa. Les études à venir devraient examiner (1) l'effet épidémiologique d'une infection antérieure par le DENV sur l'incidence et la sévérité du virus Zika, (2) l'effet épidémiologique d'une infection antérieure par le virus Zika sur l'incidence et la sévérité de la dengue, (3) les corrélats immunitaires basés sur des tests ELISA de nouvelle génération, (4) l' impact d'une infection antérieure à DENV/autres arbovirus sur la réponse immunitaire au ZIKV en fonction du nombre d'infections et de la durée des anticorps en fonction de l'intervalle de protection, (5) si des activités d'intensification de la lutte antivectorielle ont contribué à la diminution de la transmission d'un ou plusieurs de ces arbovirus, (6) le rôle potentiel de la compétence vectorielle lorsqu'ils sont exposés simultanément à différents arbovirus, (7) la surveillance entomologique et son impact sur la circulation d'espèces de vecteurs, dans le but d'appliquer des mesures spécifiques qui réduisent l'occurrence saisonnière d'épidémies. CONCLUSIONS: Des événements multifactoriels pourraient expliquer le déclin observé de la dengue en 2017. La plupart des résultats de cette réunion du groupe de consensus d'experts sont hypothétiques, reposent sur des données limitées et requièrent des investigations supplémentaires.
Asunto(s)
Virus del Dengue , Dengue/epidemiología , Animales , Anticuerpos Antivirales/sangre , América Central/epidemiología , Fiebre Chikungunya/epidemiología , Fiebre Chikungunya/virología , Virus Chikungunya , Consenso , Dengue/inmunología , Dengue/virología , Virus del Dengue/inmunología , Brotes de Enfermedades , Vectores de Enfermedades , Ensayo de Inmunoadsorción Enzimática , Humanos , Incidencia , América del Norte/epidemiología , América del Sur/epidemiología , Estados Unidos/epidemiología , Virus Zika , Infección por el Virus Zika/epidemiología , Infección por el Virus Zika/virologíaRESUMEN
Aedes aegypti, historically known as yellow fever (YF) mosquito, transmits a great number of other viruses such as Dengue, West Nile, Chikungunya, Zika, Mayaro and perhaps Oropouche, among others. Well established in Africa and Asia, Aedes mosquitoes are now increasingly invading large parts of the American continent, and hence the risk of urban YF resurgence in the American cities should because of great concern to public health authorities. Although no new urban cycle of YF was reported in the Americas since the end of an Aedes eradication programme in the late 1950s, the high number of non-vaccinated individuals that visit endemic areas, that is, South American jungles where the sylvatic cycle of YF is transmitted by canopy mosquitoes, and return to Aedes-infested urban areas, increases the risk of resurgence of the urban cycle of YF. We present a method to estimate the risk of urban YF resurgence in dengue-endemic cities. This method consists in (1) to estimate the number of Aedes mosquitoes that explains a given dengue outbreak in a given region; (2) calculate the force of infection caused by the introduction of one infective individual per unit area in the endemic area under study; (3) using the above estimates, calculate the probability of at least one autochthonous YF case per unit area produced by one single viraemic traveller per unit area arriving from a YF endemic or epidemic sylvatic region at the city studied. We demonstrate that, provided the relative vector competence, here defined as the capacity to being infected and disseminate the virus, of Ae. aegypti is greater than 0.7 (with respect to dengue), one infected traveller can introduce urban YF in a dengue endemic area.
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Aedes/virología , Enfermedades Transmisibles Importadas/epidemiología , Dengue/epidemiología , Mosquitos Vectores/virología , Fiebre Amarilla/epidemiología , Américas/epidemiología , Animales , Ciudades/epidemiología , Enfermedades Transmisibles Importadas/transmisión , Dengue/transmisión , Femenino , Humanos , Incidencia , Probabilidad , Medición de Riesgo/métodos , Viaje , Fiebre Amarilla/transmisiónRESUMEN
Current dengue vector control strategies, focusing on reactive implementation of insecticide-based interventions in response to clinically apparent disease manifestations, tend to be inefficient, short-lived, and unsustainable within the worldwide epidemiological scenario of virus epidemic recrudescence. As a result of a series of expert meetings and deliberations, a paradigm shift is occurring and a new strategy, using risk stratification at the city level in order to concentrate proactive, sustained efforts in areas at high risk for transmission, has emerged. In this article, the authors 1) outline this targeted, proactive intervention strategy, within the context of dengue epidemiology, the dynamics of its transmission, and current Aedes control strategies, and 2) provide support from published literature for the need to empirically test its impact on dengue transmission as well as on the size of disease outbreaks. As chikungunya and Zika viruses continue to expand their range, the need for a science-based, proactive approach for control of urban Aedes spp. mosquitoes will become a central focus of integrated disease management planning.
Las estrategias actuales de control de vectores del dengue, centradas en la ejecución reactiva de intervenciones con insecticidas en respuesta a la aparición de cuadros clínicos evidentes de la enfermedad, suelen ser ineficientes, de duración limitada e insostenibles en el contexto epidemiológico mundial, caracterizado por la recrudescencia de las epidemias virales. Como resultado de una serie de reuniones y deliberaciones entre expertos, está en proceso un cambio de paradigma y ha surgido una nueva estrategia, que consiste en estratificar el riesgo de cada ciudad para concentrar y mantener los esfuerzos proactivos donde hay un alto riesgo de transmisión. En este artículo, los autores 1) describen esta estrategia de intervención específica y proactiva dentro del contexto de las características epidemiológicas del dengue, la dinámica de su transmisión y las estrategias actuales de control de Aedes y 2) fundamentan con fuentes bibliográficas la necesidad de demostrar empíricamente las repercusiones de esta estrategia sobre la transmisión del dengue y el tamaño de los brotes. Dado que los virus del chikunguña y el Zika siguen ampliando su alcance, uno de los objetivos primordiales de la planificación de la atención integrada de estas enfermedades estará determinado por la necesidad de adoptar un enfoque científico y proactivo del control urbano de los mosquitos del género Aedes.
RESUMEN
Widespread transmission of Zika virus by Aedes mosquitoes has been recognized in Brazil since late 2014, and in October 2015, an increase in the number of reported cases of microcephaly was reported to the Brazil Ministry of Health.* By January 2016, a total of 3,530 suspected microcephaly cases had been reported, many of which occurred in infants born to women who lived in or had visited areas where Zika virus transmission was occurring. Microcephaly surveillance was enhanced in late 2015 by implementing a more sensitive case definition. Based on the peak number of reported cases of microcephaly, and assuming an average estimated pregnancy duration of 38 weeks in Brazil (1), the first trimester of pregnancy coincided with reports of cases of febrile rash illness compatible with Zika virus disease in pregnant women in Bahia, Paraíba, and Pernambuco states, supporting an association between Zika virus infection during early pregnancy and the occurrence of microcephaly. Pregnant women in areas where Zika virus transmission is occurring should take steps to avoid mosquito bites. Additional studies are needed to further elucidate the relationship between Zika virus infection in pregnancy and microcephaly.
Asunto(s)
Microcefalia/epidemiología , Complicaciones Infecciosas del Embarazo/virología , Primer Trimestre del Embarazo , Características de la Residencia/estadística & datos numéricos , Infección por el Virus Zika/transmisión , Brasil/epidemiología , Femenino , Humanos , Lactante , Recién Nacido , Masculino , Embarazo , Complicaciones Infecciosas del Embarazo/epidemiología , Prevalencia , Infección por el Virus Zika/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
The organophosphate temephos has been the main insecticide used against larvae of the dengue and yellow fever mosquito (Aedes aegypti) in Brazil since the mid-1980s. Reports of resistance date back to 1995; however, no systematic reports of widespread temephos resistance have occurred to date. As resistance investigation is paramount for strategic decision-making by health officials, our objective here was to investigate the spatial and temporal spread of temephos resistance in Ae. aegypti in Brazil for the last 12 years using discriminating temephos concentrations and the bioassay protocols of the World Health Organization. The mortality results obtained were subjected to spatial analysis for distance interpolation using semi-variance models to generate maps that depict the spread of temephos resistance in Brazil since 1999. The problem has been expanding. Since 2002-2003, approximately half the country has exhibited mosquito populations resistant to temephos. The frequency of temephos resistance and, likely, control failures, which start when the insecticide mortality level drops below 80%, has increased even further since 2004. Few parts of Brazil are able to achieve the target 80% efficacy threshold by 2010/2011, resulting in a significant risk of control failure by temephos in most of the country. The widespread resistance to temephos in Brazilian Ae. aegypti populations greatly compromise effective mosquito control efforts using this insecticide and indicates the urgent need to identify alternative insecticides aided by the preventive elimination of potential mosquito breeding sites.
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Aedes/efectos de los fármacos , Insectos Vectores/efectos de los fármacos , Resistencia a los Insecticidas , Insecticidas/farmacología , Temefós/farmacología , Animales , Bioensayo , Brasil , Larva/efectos de los fármacos , Análisis Espacio-TemporalAsunto(s)
Síndrome de Guillain-Barré/epidemiología , Microcefalia/epidemiología , Complicaciones Infecciosas del Embarazo , Infección por el Virus Zika/epidemiología , Virus Zika , Brasil/epidemiología , Epidemias , Femenino , Síndrome de Guillain-Barré/etiología , Humanos , Incidencia , Microcefalia/etiología , Embarazo , Infección por el Virus Zika/complicacionesRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: In December 2013, an outbreak of Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) caused by the Asian genotype was notified in the Caribbean. The outbreak has since spread to 38 regions in the Americas. By September 2014, the first autochthonous CHIKV infections were confirmed in Oiapoque, North Brazil, and in Feira de Santana, Northeast Brazil. METHODS: We compiled epidemiological and clinical data on suspected CHIKV cases in Brazil and polymerase-chain-reaction-based diagnostic was conducted on 68 serum samples from patients with symptom onset between April and September 2014. Two imported and four autochthonous cases were selected for virus propagation, RNA isolation, full-length genome sequencing, and phylogenetic analysis. We then followed CDC/PAHO guidelines to estimate the risk of establishment of CHIKV in Brazilian municipalities. RESULTS: We detected 41 CHIKV importations and 27 autochthonous cases in Brazil. Epidemiological and phylogenetic analyses indicated local transmission of the Asian CHIKV genotype in Oiapoque. Unexpectedly, we also discovered that the ECSA genotype is circulating in Feira de Santana. The presumed index case of the ECSA genotype was an individual who had recently returned from Angola and developed symptoms in Feira de Santana. We estimate that, if CHIKV becomes established in Brazil, transmission could occur in 94% of municipalities in the country and provide maps of the risk of importation of each strain of CHIKV in Brazil. CONCLUSIONS: The etiological strains associated with the early-phase CHIKV outbreaks in Brazil belong to the Asian and ECSA genotypes. Continued surveillance and vector mitigation strategies are needed to reduce the future public health impact of CHIKV in the Americas.
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Fiebre Chikungunya/epidemiología , Fiebre Chikungunya/transmisión , Fiebre Chikungunya/virología , Virus Chikungunya/genética , Adolescente , Adulto , Anciano , Brasil/epidemiología , Niño , Preescolar , Brotes de Enfermedades , Femenino , Genotipo , Humanos , Lactante , Recién Nacido , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Filogenia , Salud Pública , Riesgo , Adulto JovenAsunto(s)
Síndrome de Guillain-Barré/etiología , Infección por el Virus Zika/complicaciones , Adulto , América Central/epidemiología , Femenino , Síndrome de Guillain-Barré/epidemiología , Humanos , Incidencia , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Distribución por Sexo , América del Sur/epidemiología , Adulto Joven , Infección por el Virus Zika/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
Currently, sticky traps are regularly employed to assist in the surveillance of Aedes aegypti infestation. We tested two alternative procedures for specimen identification performed by local health agents: directly in the field, as recommended by certain manufacturers, or after transportation to the laboratory. A total of 384 sticky traps (MosquiTRAP) were monitored monthly during one year in four geographically representative Brazilian municipalities. When the same samples were inspected in the field and in the laboratory, large differences were noted in the total number of mosquitoes recorded and in the number of specimens identified as Ae. aegypti by both procedures. Although field identification has the potential to speed vector surveillance, these results point to uncertainties in the evaluated protocol.
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Aedes/clasificación , Insectos Vectores/clasificación , Animales , Brasil , Ciudades , Monitoreo del Ambiente , Laboratorios , Control de Mosquitos/métodosRESUMEN
Brazil will host the FIFA World Cup™, the biggest single-event competition in the world, from June 12-July 13 2014 in 12 cities. This event will draw an estimated 600,000 international visitors. Brazil is endemic for dengue. Hence, attendees of the 2014 event are theoretically at risk for dengue. We calculated the risk of dengue acquisition to non-immune international travellers to Brazil, depending on the football match schedules, considering locations and dates of such matches for June and July 2014. We estimated the average per-capita risk and expected number of dengue cases for each host-city and each game schedule chosen based on reported dengue cases to the Brazilian Ministry of Health for the period between 2010-2013. On the average, the expected number of cases among the 600,000 foreigner tourists during the World Cup is 33, varying from 3-59. Such risk estimates will not only benefit individual travellers for adequate pre-travel preparations, but also provide valuable information for public health professionals and policy makers worldwide. Furthermore, estimates of dengue cases in international travellers during the World Cup can help to anticipate the theoretical risk for exportation of dengue into currently non-infected areas.
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Dengue/transmisión , Fútbol , Aniversarios y Eventos Especiales , Brasil/epidemiología , Dengue/epidemiología , Humanos , Incidencia , Modelos Estadísticos , Medición de Riesgo , ViajeRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Effective Aedes aegypti control is limited, in part, by the difficulty in achieving sufficient intervention coverage. To maximise the effect of vector control, areas with persistently high numbers of Aedes-borne disease cases could be identified and prioritised for preventive interventions. We aimed to identify persistent Aedes-borne disease hotspots in cities across southern Mexico. METHODS: In this spatial analysis, geocoded cases of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika from nine endemic Mexican cities were aggregated at the census-tract level. We included cities that were located in southern Mexico (the arbovirus endemic region of Mexico), with a high burden of dengue cases (ie, more than 5000 cases reported during a 10-year period), and listed as high priority for the Mexican dengue control and prevention programme. The Getis-Ord Gi*(d) statistic was applied to yearly slices of the dataset to identify spatial hotspots of each disease in each city. We used Kendall's W coefficient to quantify the agreement in the distribution of each virus. FINDINGS: 128â507 dengue, 4752 chikungunya and 25â755 Zika clinical cases were reported between Jan 1, 2008, and Dec 31, 2016. All cities showed evidence of transmission heterogeneity, with a mean of 17·6% (SD 4·7) of their total area identified as persistent disease hotspots. Hotspots accounted for 25·6% (SD 9·7; range 12·8-43·0) of the population and 32·1% (10·5; 19·6-50·5) of all Aedes-borne disease cases reported. We found an overlap between hotspots of 61·7% for dengue and Zika and 53·3% for dengue and chikungunya. Dengue hotspots in 2008-16 were significantly associated with dengue hotspots detected during 2017-20 in five of the nine cities. Heads of vector control confirmed hotspot areas as problem zones for arbovirus transmission. INTERPRETATION: This study provides evidence of the overlap of Aedes-borne diseases within geographical hotspots and a methodological framework for the stratification of arbovirus transmission risk within urban areas, which can guide the implementation of surveillance and vector control. FUNDING: USAID, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Canadian Institutes of Health Research, International Development Research Centre, Fondo Mixto CONACyT (Mexico)-Gobierno del Estado de Yucatan, and the US National Institutes of Health. TRANSLATION: For the Spanish translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.
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Fiebre Chikungunya , Dengue , Infección por el Virus Zika , Virus Zika , Canadá , Fiebre Chikungunya/epidemiología , Dengue/epidemiología , Humanos , México/epidemiología , Mosquitos Vectores , Medición de Riesgo , Análisis Espacial , Infección por el Virus Zika/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: The re-emergence of worldwide concern with arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) draws increasing attention to their mosquito vectors, particularly Aedes aegypti, whose control heavily rely on insecticide use. As a consequence, insecticide resistance is frequent, but the general patterns of occurrence, cross-resistance and prevailing mechanisms remain unrecognized in some areas such as the Neotropical region. Thus, we sought here to recognize the general trends and patterns of insecticide resistance in Latin America and the Caribbean. A systematic literature review (2008-2018) aimed the data-gathering for the region and meta-analyses to address the stated knowledge gap. RESULTS: A high incidence of insecticide resistance prevails in the mosquito populations of the region. Dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT), temephos and deltamethrin were the main insecticides evaluated and the meta-analyses indicate a high frequency of DDT-resistant populations (86.7 ± 0.1%), followed by temephos (75.7 ± 0.1%) and deltamethrin (33.0 ± 0.1%). No evidence of cross-resistance was detected among these three insecticides, and the V1016I knockdown (KDR) site mutation does not explain the patterns of deltamethrin resistance in the region. CONCLUSION: Resistance to DDT, temephos and deltamethrin is serious and widespread, and there is no cross-resistance among them. Altered target site sensitivity is not the main pyrethroid resistance mechanism, which is likely due to a mix of mechanisms. Therefore, the replacement of deltamethrin and particularly temephos in the region by alternative insecticides is an important resistance management recommendation, but should be done with compounds out of the cross-resistance spectrum for these populations and insecticides. Nonetheless, the non-recognition of the prevalent resistance mechanisms in the region makes this suggestion more difficult to apply and invites more broad-scale studies of resistance mechanisms to fill this knowledge gap and improve the resistance management recommendations. © 2020 Society of Chemical Industry.
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Aedes , Animales , Región del Caribe , Resistencia a los Insecticidas , América Latina , Piretrinas , Encuestas y CuestionariosRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: The clinical manifestations of microcephaly/congenital Zika syndrome (microcephaly/CZS) have harmful consequences on the child's health, increasing vulnerability to childhood morbidity and mortality. This study analyzes the case fatality rate and child-maternal characteristics of cases and deaths related to microcephaly/CZS in Brazil, 2015-2017. METHODS: Population-based study developed by linkage of three information systems. We estimate frequencies of cases, deaths, case fatality rate related to microcephaly/CZS according to child and maternal characteristics and causes of death. Multivariate logistic regression models were applied. RESULTS: The microcephaly/CZS case fatality rate was 10% (95% CI 9.2-10.7). Death related to microcephaly/CZS was associated to moderate (OR = 2.15; 95% CI 1.63-2.83), and very low birth weight (OR = 3.77; 95% CI 2.20-6.46); late preterm births (OR = 1.65; 95% CI 1.21-2.23), Apgar < 7 at 1st (OR = 5.98; 95% CI 4.46-8.02) and 5th minutes (OR = 4.13; 95% CI 2.78-6.13), among others. CONCLUSIONS: A high microcephaly/CZS case fatality rate and important factors associated with deaths related to this syndrome were observed. These results can alert health teams to these problems and increase awareness about the factors that may be associated with worse outcomes.
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Microcefalia/mortalidad , Complicaciones Infecciosas del Embarazo/virología , Infección por el Virus Zika/mortalidad , Adolescente , Adulto , Brasil/epidemiología , Femenino , Humanos , Modelos Logísticos , Masculino , Registros Médicos , Persona de Mediana Edad , Embarazo , Estudios Retrospectivos , Factores de Riesgo , Adulto Joven , Infección por el Virus Zika/congénito , Infección por el Virus Zika/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
This Article was mistakenly not made Open Access when originally published; this has now been amended, and information about the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License has been added into the 'Additional information' section.
RESUMEN
In the version of this Article originally published, the affiliation for author Catherine Linard was incorrectly stated as '6Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK'. The correct affiliation is '9Spatial Epidemiology Lab (SpELL), Universite Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium'. The affiliation for author Hongjie Yu was also incorrectly stated as '11Department of Statistics, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA'. The correct affiliation is '15School of Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China'. This has now been amended in all versions of the Article.
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The global population at risk from mosquito-borne diseases-including dengue, yellow fever, chikungunya and Zika-is expanding in concert with changes in the distribution of two key vectors: Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. The distribution of these species is largely driven by both human movement and the presence of suitable climate. Using statistical mapping techniques, we show that human movement patterns explain the spread of both species in Europe and the United States following their introduction. We find that the spread of Ae. aegypti is characterized by long distance importations, while Ae. albopictus has expanded more along the fringes of its distribution. We describe these processes and predict the future distributions of both species in response to accelerating urbanization, connectivity and climate change. Global surveillance and control efforts that aim to mitigate the spread of chikungunya, dengue, yellow fever and Zika viruses must consider the so far unabated spread of these mosquitos. Our maps and predictions offer an opportunity to strategically target surveillance and control programmes and thereby augment efforts to reduce arbovirus burden in human populations globally.
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Aedes/virología , Infecciones por Arbovirus/transmisión , Arbovirus/fisiología , Mosquitos Vectores/virología , Aedes/clasificación , Aedes/fisiología , Animales , Infecciones por Arbovirus/virología , Arbovirus/genética , Femenino , Humanos , Mosquitos Vectores/clasificación , Mosquitos Vectores/fisiologíaRESUMEN
We analyzed dengue incidence in the period between October 2006-July 2007 of 146 cities around the country were Larval Index Rapid Assay (LIRA) surveillance was carried out in October 2006. Of these, we chosen 61 cities that had 500 or more cases reported during this period. We calculated the incidence coefficient, the force of infection (lambda) and the basic reproduction number (R0) of dengue in those 61 cities and correlated those variables with the LIRA. We concluded that lambda and R0 are more associated with the number of cases than LIRA. In addition, the average R0 for the 2006/2007 dengue season was almost as high as that calculated for the 2001/2002 season, the worst in Brazilian history.
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Aedes , Dengue/epidemiología , Brotes de Enfermedades , Insectos Vectores , Animales , Brasil/epidemiología , Humanos , Incidencia , Larva , Densidad de Población , Vigilancia de la Población , Estaciones del AñoRESUMEN
OBJECTIVE: to describe the challenges in implementing the chikungunya surveillance and prevention system in Brazil. METHODS: this was a descriptive study of suspected cases of the disease based on records held on the Notifiable Diseases Information System (Sinan) for the period 2014-2016. RESULTS: more than 100,000 probable chikungunya cases were notified in Brazil in this period, with the largest concentration in the Northeast states (83.3% between 2014 and 2015; 91.0% in 2016); Sinan provided an excellent opportunity for closing records of cases occurring between 2014 and 2015 (85%) and high completeness of obligatory variables. CONCLUSION: given the imminence of the introduction of chikungunya in Brazil in 2014, advance public health preparation took place in order to minimize its effects on society; implementation of the surveillance system improved collection of information regarding the disease, however many challenges can be seen in practice, in view of increasing case incidence. This requires greater handling capacity in this sector.