The effect of gun buy-back law reform on homicides and suicides in Australia.

In this paper we use the synthetic control method (SCM) to estimate the causal effects of a national legislative reform accompanied by mandatory gun buy-backs in Australia on both suicide and homicide rates. Using a rich international dataset, we are able to separate not only these two death types, but also to distinguish deaths by firearm and by other means, thereby enabling us to test substitution-of-means hypotheses. Specifically, we apply the SCM to determine whether any reductions in firearm-related death rates where wholly or partly offset by increases in the use of other means (e.g., bladed weapons, poisons) to commit suicides and perpetrate homicides. Our findings show that these gun control policies substantially reduced both homicides and suicides by firearm, but also some evidence of other-means substitution.

Interventions for improving clinical outcomes and health-related quality-of-life for people living with skeletal dysplasias: an evidence gap map.

PURPOSE: Skeletal dysplasias are rare genetic disorders that are characterized by abnormal development of bone and cartilage. There are multiple medical and non-medical treatments for specific symptoms of skeletal dysplasias e.g. pain, as well as corrective surgical procedures to improve physical functioning. The aim of this paper was to develop an evidence-gap map of treatment options for skeletal dysplasias, and their impact on patient outcomes. METHODS: We conducted an evidence-gap map to identify the available evidence on the impact of treatment options on people with skeletal dysplasias on clinical outcomes (such as increase in height), and dimensions of health-related quality of life. A structured search strategy was applied to five databases. Two reviewers independently assessed articles for inclusion in two stages: titles and abstracts (stage 1), and full text of studies retained at stage 2. RESULTS: 58 studies fulfilled our inclusion criteria. The included studies covered 12 types of skeletal dysplasia that are non-lethal with severe limb deformities that could result in significant pain and numerous orthopaedic interventions. Most studies reported on the effect of surgical interventions (n = 40, 69%), followed by the effect of treatments on dimensions of health quality-of-life (n = 4, 6.8%) and psychosocial functioning (n = 8, 13.8%). CONCLUSION: Most studies reported on clinical outcomes from surgery for people living with Achondroplasia. Consequently, there are gaps in the literature on the full range of treatment options (including no active treatment), outcomes and the lived experience of people living with other skeletal dysplasias. More research is warranted to examine the impact of treatments on health-related quality-of-life of people living with skeletal dysplasias, including their relatives to enable them to make preference- and valued based decisions about treatment.

Post-traumatic stress disorder is associated with a higher rate of polypectomy independent of an increased frequency of colonoscopy in Australian veterans: a retrospective review.

BACKGROUND: Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is associated with extensive physical comorbidities, including lower gastrointestinal symptoms. Diagnostic uncertainty and poor therapeutic responses may result in more frequent colonoscopies than clinically necessary. Polypectomy is standard practice when polyps are identified, and if PTSD is a risk factor for polyp formation, one would expect a higher rate of polyp detection and removal in veterans with PTSD than those without PTSD. AIM: To determine the association between PTSD and the rate of colonoscopy and polypectomy in Australian veterans. METHODS: Diagnostic and therapeutic colonoscopy rates in Australian male Veterans aged ≥50 years were examined by reviewing case records of veterans who accessed Department of Veterans' Affairs funded health services between 1 January 2013 and 31 December 2018. RESULTS: A total of 138 471 veterans was included, of whom 28 018 had a diagnosis of PTSD; 56.4% were aged ≥65 years. Twenty-one percent of the entire cohort underwent at least one colonoscopy during the study period. Increased rates of diagnostic colonoscopy and polypectomy were associated with the presence of PTSD across all age brackets. The effect was empirically large as veterans with PTSD experience colonoscopy rates 76-81% greater than those without PTSD. Similarly, veterans with PTSD experienced polypectomy rates 76-81% greater than veterans without PTSD, and this increase persisted when controlling for the increased number of diagnostic colonoscopies they undergo. CONCLUSION: The presence of PTSD has a marked impact on colonoscopy rates in Australian veterans. The increased polypectomy rate independent of increased colonoscopy rate suggests that PTSD is a risk factor for colonic polyp formation.

The impact of posttraumatic stress disorder on upper gastrointestinal investigations in Australian Defence Force veterans: a retrospective review.

Veterans with posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) commonly exhibit associated gastrointestinal (GI) symptoms. We compared upper GI endoscopy and abdominal ultrasound rates in veterans with and without PTSD. Veterans with PTSD were 77-81% more likely to undergo these procedures than those without PTSD. PTSD symptomatology influences GI investigation rate and more emphasis on clinician and patient education is recommended regarding stress-related gut symptoms.

Reducing Medical Admissions and Presentations Into Hospital through Optimising Medicines (REMAIN HOME): a stepped wedge, cluster randomised controlled trial.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether integrating pharmacists into general practices reduces the number of unplanned re-admissions of patients recently discharged from hospital. DESIGN, SETTING: Stepped wedge, cluster randomised trial in 14 general practices in southeast Queensland. PARTICIPANTS: Adults discharged from one of seven study hospitals during the seven days preceding recruitment (22 May 2017 - 14 March 2018) and prescribed five or more long term medicines, or having a primary discharge diagnosis of congestive heart failure or exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. INTERVENTION: Comprehensive face-to-face medicine management consultation with an integrated practice pharmacist within seven days of discharge, followed by a consultation with their general practitioner and further pharmacist consultations as needed. MAJOR OUTCOMES: Rates of unplanned, all-cause hospital re-admissions and emergency department (ED) presentations 12 months after hospital discharge; incremental net difference in overall costs. RESULTS: By 12 months, there had been 282 re-admissions among 177 control patients (incidence rate [IR], 1.65 per person-year) and 136 among 129 intervention patients (IR, 1.09 per person-year; fully adjusted IR ratio [IRR], 0.79; 95% CI, 0.52-1.18). ED presentation incidence (fully adjusted IRR, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.22-0.94) and combined re-admission and ED presentation incidence (fully adjusted IRR, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.48-0.99) were significantly lower for intervention patients. The estimated incremental net cost benefit of the intervention was $5072 per patient, with a benefit-cost ratio of 31:1. CONCLUSION: A collaborative pharmacist-GP model of post-hospital discharge medicines management can reduce the incidence of hospital re-admissions and ED presentations, achieving substantial cost savings to the health system. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry, ACTRN12616001627448 (prospective).

Weather and children's time allocation.

This paper presents the first causal estimates of the effect of weather on children's time allocation. It exploits exogenous variations in local weather observed during the random diary dates of two nationally representative cohorts of Australian children whose time-use diaries were surveyed biennially over 10 years. Unfavorable weather conditions, as represented by cold or hot temperature or rain, cause children to switch activities from outdoors to indoors, mainly by reducing the time allocated to active pursuits and travel and increasing the time allocated to media. Furthermore, the effects of bad weather are more pronounced on weekends and for children with asthma. Our results also provide some evidence of adaptation, as temperature tends to have greater impact not only in winter months but also in colder regions. Our findings are robust to a wide range of sensitivity checks, including controlling for individual fixed effects and using alternative model specifications. Overall, the results suggest that extreme weather conditions may diminish children's health, development and long-term achievements through their effects on children's time allocation.

Who's declining the "free lunch"? New evidence from the uptake of public child dental benefits.

This study provides the first evidence on the determinants of uptake of two recent public dental benefit programs for Australian children and adolescents from disadvantaged families. Using longitudinal data from a nationally representative survey linked to administrative data with accurate information on eligibility and uptake, we find that only a third of all eligible families actually claim their benefits. We provide new and robust evidence consistent with the idea advanced by recent economic literature that cognitive biases and behavioral factors are barriers to uptake. For instance, mothers with worse mental health or riskier lifestyles are much less likely to claim the available benefits for their children. These barriers to uptake are particularly large in magnitude: together, they reduce the uptake rate by up to 10 percentage points (or 36%). We also find some indicative evidence that a lack of information is a barrier to uptake.

Economic evaluation of fecal microbiota transplantation for the treatment of recurrent Clostridium difficile infection in Australia.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Clostridium difficile is the most common cause of hospital-acquired diarrhea in Australia. In 2013, a randomized controlled trial demonstrated the effectiveness of fecal microbiota transplantation (FMT) for the treatment of recurrent Clostridium difficile infection (CDI). The aim of this study is to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of fecal microbiota transplantation-via either nasoduodenal or colorectal delivery-compared with vancomycin for the treatment of recurrent CDI in Australia. METHODS: A Markov model was developed to compare the cost-effectiveness of fecal microbiota transplantation compared with standard antibiotic therapy. A literature review of clinical evidence informed the structure of the model and the choice of parameter values. Clinical effectiveness was measured in terms of quality-adjusted life years. Uncertainty in the model was explored using probabilistic sensitivity analysis. RESULTS: Both nasoduodenal and colorectal FMT resulted in improved quality of life and reduced cost compared with vancomycin. The incremental effectiveness of either FMT delivery compared with vancomycin was 1.2 (95% CI: 0.1, 2.3) quality-adjusted life years, or 1.4 (95% CI: 0.4, 2.4) life years saved. Treatment with vancomycin resulted in an increased cost of AU$4094 (95% CI: AU$26, AU$8161) compared with nasoduodenal delivery of FMT and AU$4045 (95% CI: -AU$33, AU$8124) compared with colorectal delivery. The mean difference in cost between colorectal and nasoduodenal FMT was not significant. CONCLUSIONS: If FMT, rather than vancomycin, became standard care for recurrent CDI in Australia, the estimated national healthcare savings would be over AU$4000 per treated person, with a substantial increase in quality of life.

Determinants of foodservice satisfaction for patients in geriatrics/rehabilitation and residents in residential aged care.

BACKGROUND: Poor satisfaction with institutional food is a significant moderator of food intake in geriatrics/rehabilitation and residential aged care. PURPOSE: To quantify the relationship between foodservice satisfaction, foodservice characteristics, demographic and contextual variables in geriatrics/rehabilitation and residential aged care. METHODS: The Resident Foodservice Satisfaction Questionnaire was administered to 103 patients of 2 geriatrics/rehabilitation units and 210 residents of nine residential aged care facilities in Brisbane, Australia. Ordered probit regression analysis measured the association of age, gender, ethnicity and appetite, timing and amount of meal choice, menu selectivity, menu cycle, production system, meal delivery system and therapeutic diets with foodservice satisfaction. RESULTS: Patient and resident appetite (P < 0.01), the amount and timing of meal choice (P < 0.01), self-rated health (P < 0.01), accommodation style (P < 0.05) and age (P < 0.10) significantly moderated foodservice satisfaction. High protein/high energy therapeutic diets (P < 0.01), foodservice production (P < 0.01) and delivery systems (P > 0.01) were significant moderators for those with 'fair' self-rated health. CONCLUSIONS: Patient and resident characteristics and structural and systems-related foodservice variables were more important for influencing foodservice satisfaction than characteristics of food quality. The results suggest modifications to current menu planning and foodservice delivery methods: reducing the time-lapse between meal choice and consumption, augmenting the number of meals at which choice is offered, and revising food production and delivery systems.It is important that residents in poorer health who are a high risk of under-nutrition are provided with sufficient high protein/high energy therapeutic diets. Diets that restrict macro- and micro-nutrients should be minimized for all patients and residents.

Implementation of a risk-stratified, guideline-based clinical pathway of care to improve health outcomes following whiplash injury (Whiplash ImPaCT): a multicentre, randomized, controlled trial.

ABSTRACT: Current pathways of care for whiplash follow a "stepped care model," result in modest treatment outcomes and fail to offer efficient management solutions. This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of a risk-stratified clinical pathway of care (CPC) compared with usual care (UC) in people with acute whiplash. We conducted a multicentre, 2-arm, parallel, randomised, controlled trial in primary care in Australia. Participants with acute whiplash (n = 216) were stratified for risk of a poor outcome (low vs medium/high risk) and randomised using concealed allocation to either the CPC or UC. In the CPC group, low-risk participants received guideline-based advice and exercise supported by an online resource, and medium-risk/high-risk participants were referred to a whiplash specialist who assessed modifiable risk factors and then determined further care. The UC group received care from their primary healthcare provider who had no knowledge of risk status. Primary outcomes were neck disability index (NDI) and Global Rating of Change (GRC) at 3 months. Analysis blinded to group used intention-to-treat and linear mixed models. There was no difference between the groups for the NDI (mean difference [MD] [95% confidence interval (CI)] -2.34 [-7.44 to 2.76]) or GRC (MD 95% CI 0.08 [-0.55 to 0.70]) at 3 months. Baseline risk category did not modify the effect of treatment. No adverse events were reported. Risk-stratified care for acute whiplash did not improve patient outcomes, and implementation of this CPC in its current form is not recommended.

Cost minimization analysis of laparoscopic sacral colpopexy and total vaginal mesh.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study was a cost minimization analysis of the laparoscopic sacral colpopexy (LSC) and total vaginal mesh (TVM). STUDY DESIGN: Primary clinical costs were derived from our randomized control trial comparing LSC and TVM and were compared using prices from privately- and publicly-conducted procedures. Womens' opportunity cost of time were added to these estimates to produce estimates of the primary economic costs of the procedures. Reoperation costs were added to estimate the economic cost per subject. RESULTS: LSC has lower mean primary clinical cost as compared with the TVM in both the public (mean difference, $1102.96; 95% confidence interval [CI], 468.52-1737.385) and private models (mean difference, $1176.68; 95% CI, 1116.85-1236.51), respectively. Mean total economic costs were significantly lower in the LSC group as compared with the TVM ($4013.07; 95% CI, 3107.77-4918.37). Labor costs were significantly greater in the LSC but were offset by lower consumable, inpatient, opportunity, and reoperation costs as compared with the TVM. CONCLUSION: The LSC has lower economic cost than TVM.

Are people who claim compensation "cured by a verdict"? A longitudinal study of health outcomes after whiplash.

This study examines whether the lure of injury compensation prompts whiplash claimants to overstate their symptoms. Claim settlement is the intervention of interest, as it represents the point at which there is no further incentive to exaggerate symptoms, and neck pain at 24 months is the outcome of interest. Longitudinal data on neck pain scores and timing of claim settlement were regressed, controlling for the effect of time on recovery, to compare outcomes in claimants who had and had not settled their compensation claims. The results show clearly that removing the financial incentive to over-report symptoms has no effect on self-reported neck pain in a fault-based compensation scheme, and this finding concurs with other studies on this topic. Policy decisions to limit compensation in the belief that claimants systematically misrepresent their health status are not supported empirically Claimants do not appear to be "cured by a verdict".

Answers in search of questions: what does the comparison of COVID19 data among regions in Northern Italy tell us?

Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, discussions about the capabilities of health and social systems to control and contain infectious diseases have been reignited. In Resilient Managed Competition During Pandemics: Lessons from the Italian Experience, Costa-Font, Turatti and Levaggi ask whether or not institutional differences between the managed competition (MC) systems in three of Italy's regions may have affected their performance - and hence, population health outcomes - during the pandemic. Fuchs (2000) previously argued that institutional arrangements not only 'matter', but also sometimes 'matter a great deal' (p. 149, emphasis in original) and this may be particularly true in emergencies.

Pregabalin vs placebo to prevent chronic pain after whiplash injury in at-risk individuals: results of a feasibility study for a large randomised controlled trial.

ABSTRACT: There are few effective treatments for acute whiplash-associated disorders (WADs). Early features of central sensitisation predict poor recovery. The effect of pregabalin on central sensitisation might prevent chronic pain after acute whiplash injury. This double blind, placebo-controlled randomised controlled trial examined feasibility and potential effectiveness of pregabalin compared with placebo for people with acute WAD. Twenty-four participants with acute WAD (<48 hours) and at risk of poor recovery (pain ≥5/10) were recruited from hospital emergency departments in Queensland, Australia, and randomly assigned by concealed allocation to either pregabalin (n = 10) or placebo (n = 14). Pregabalin was commenced at 75 mg bd, titrated to 300 mg bd for 4 weeks, and then weaned over 1 week. Participants were assessed at 5 weeks and 3, 6, and 12 months. Feasibility issues included recruitment difficulties and greater attrition in the placebo group. For the primary clinical outcome of neck pain intensity, attrition at 5 weeks was pregabalin: 10% and placebo: 36% and at 12 months was pregabalin: 10% and placebo: 43%. Pregabalin may be more effective than placebo for the primary clinical outcome of neck pain intensity at 3 months (mean difference: -4.0 [95% confidence interval -6.2 to -1.7]) on an 11-point Numerical Rating Scale. Effects were maintained at 6 months but not 12 months. There were no serious adverse events. Minor adverse events were more common in the pregabalin group. A definitive large randomised controlled trial of pregabalin for acute whiplash injury is warranted. Feasibility issues would need to be addressed with modifications to the protocol.

Are we there yet? Australian road safety targets and road traffic crash fatalities.

BACKGROUND: Road safety targets are widely used and provide a basis for evaluating progress in road safety outcomes against a quantified goal. In Australia, a reduction in fatalities from road traffic crashes (RTCs) is a public policy objective: a national target of no more than 5.6 fatalities per 100,000 population by 2010 was set in 2001. The purpose of this paper is to examine the progress Australia and its states and territories have made in reducing RTC fatalities, and to estimate when the 2010 target may be reached by the jurisdictions. METHODS: Following a descriptive analysis, univariate time-series models estimate past trends in fatality rates over recent decades. Data for differing time periods are analysed and different trend specifications estimated. Preferred models were selected on the basis of statistical criteria and the period covered by the data. The results of preferred regressions are used to determine out-of-sample forecasts of when the national target may be attained by the jurisdictions. Though there are limitations with the time series approach used, inadequate data precluded the estimation of a full causal/structural model. RESULTS: Statistically significant reductions in fatality rates since 1971 were found for all jurisdictions with the national rate decreasing on average, 3% per year since 1992. However the gains have varied across time and space, with percent changes in fatality rates ranging from an 8% increase in New South Wales 1972-1981 to a 46% decrease in Queensland 1982-1991. Based on an estimate of past trends, it is possible that the target set for 2010 may not be reached nationally, until 2016. Unsurprisingly, the analysis indicated a range of outcomes for the respective state/territory jurisdictions though these results should be interpreted with caution due to different assumptions and length of data. CONCLUSIONS: Results indicate that while Australia has been successful over recent decades in reducing RTC mortality, an important gap between aspirations and achievements remains. Moreover, unless there are fairly radical ("trend-breaking") changes in the factors that affect the incidence of RTC fatalities, deaths from RTCs are likely to remain above the national target in some areas of Australia, for years to come.

Financial incentives and the health workforce.

Changes to the remuneration of medical practitioners are currently being considered in Australia. In this paper, we provide a discussion of financial incentives in healthcare markets and their effects on health professionals' behaviour. After defining incentives, the paper focuses on the design of incentive schemes for the health workforce. It discusses several issues that should be considered when designing incentives, illustrated with some Australian examples. What are the objectives of the incentive scheme? What types of incentives can be used and under what circumstances? What is the empirical evidence around the effects of incentive schemes? What unintended consequences might exist? The paper concludes with a set of principles around which incentives can be designed. These principles might be used to inform the current debate about revisions to the incentives that are faced by medical practitioners in Australia.

Identification of factors associated with high-cost use of inpatient care in chronic kidney disease: a registry study.

OBJECTIVE: To explore factors behind inpatient admissions by high-cost users (HCUs) in pre-end-stage chronic kidney disease (CKD). DESIGN: Retrospective analysis of CKD.QLD Registry and hospital admissions of the Queensland Government Department of Health recorded between 1 July 2011 and 30 June 2016. SETTING: Queensland public and private hospitals. PARTICIPANTS: 5096 individuals with CKD who consented to the CKD.QLD Registry via 1 of 11 participating sites. MAIN OUTCOMES: Associations of HCU status with patient characteristics, pathways and diagnoses behind hospital admissions at 12 months. RESULTS: Age, advanced CKD, primary renal diagnosis, cardiovascular disease and hypertension were predictors of the high-cost outcome. HCUs were more likely than non-HCUs to be admitted by means of episode change (relative risk: 5.21; 95% CI 5.02 to 5.39), 30-day readmission (2.19; 2.13 to 2.25), scheduled readmission (1.29; 1.11 to 1.46) and emergency (1.07; 1.02 to 1.13), for diagnoses of the nervous (1.94; 1.74 to 2.15), circulatory (1.24; 1.14 to 1.34) and respiratory (1.2; 1.03 to 1.37) systems and other factors influencing health status (1.92; 1.74 to 2.09). CONCLUSIONS: The high relevance of episode change and other factors influencing health status revealed that a substantial part of excess demand for inpatient care was associated with discordant conditions often linked to frailty, decline in psychological health and social vulnerability. This suggests that multidisciplinary models of care that aim to manage discordant comorbidities and address psychosocial determinants of health, such as renal supportive care, may play an important role in reducing inpatient admissions in this population.

A randomised controlled trial of implementation of a guideline-based clinical pathway of care to improve health outcomes following whiplash injury (Whiplash ImPaCT): Statistical analysis plan.

BACKGROUND: Statistical analysis plans describe the processes of data handling and analysis in clinical trials; by doing so they increase the transparency of the analysis and reporting of studies. This paper reports the planned statistical analysis plan for the Whiplash ImPaCT study. For individuals with whiplash injury, Whiplash ImPaCT aims to assess the effectiveness of a guidelines-based clinical pathway of care compared with usual care. METHODS: We report the planned procedures, methods, and reporting for the primary and secondary analyses of the Whiplash ImPaCT study. The primary outcomes are Global Recovery and Neck Disability Index at 3 months post-randomisation. Outcomes will be analysed according to the intention to treat principle using linear mixed models. A cost-utility analysis will be conducted to compute the incremental cost-effectiveness of the intervention to usual care. We describe data handling, our analytical approach, assumptions about missing data, and our planned methods of reporting. DISCUSSION: This paper will provide a detailed description of the planned analyses for the Whiplash ImPaCT trial.

Sustainability of Publicly Funded Health Care Systems: What Does Behavioural Economics Offer?

There has been a rapid increase in the use of behavioural economics (BE) as a tool for policy makers to deploy, including in health-related applications. While this development has occurred over the past decade, health care systems have continued to struggle with escalating costs. We consider the potential role of BE for making improvements to health care system performance and the sustainability of publicly funded health care systems, in particular. We argue that the vast majority of applications in this field have been largely focussed on BE and public health, or the prevailing level of risks to health in populations, and with policy proposals to 'nudge' individual behaviour (e.g. in respect of dietary choices). Yet, improvements in population health may have little, if any, impact on the size, cost or efficiency of health care systems. Few applications of BE have focussed on the management, production, delivery or utilisation of health care services per se. The latter is our focus in this paper. We review the contributions on BE and health care and consider the potential for complementing the considerable work on BE and public health with a clear agenda for behavioural health care economics. This agenda should complement the work of conventional microeconomics in the health care sector.

Utilization and Costs of Health Care in a Kidney Supportive Care Program.

Kidney supportive care (KSC) is a patient-centered model of multidisciplinary care designed for patients with advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD) and end-stage kidney disease (ESKD). Our goal was to characterize the types, frequencies, and costs of services accessed by patients enrolled in a KSC program. We analyzed health care utilization data prospectively collected from 102 patients who enrolled in the KSC program during the first 52 weeks of its existence. The data comprised program appointments, emergency department presentations, ambulance service use, outpatient visits, inpatient episodes, and dialysis treatments made within the Brisbane area of Metro North. Costs of resource use were estimated using Queensland Health funding principles and guidelines. Analyses included descriptive statistics, correlations, and multivariate regressions. During the median program participation of 22 weeks, patients had 3975 contacts with health care, with the total value of services amounting to nearly A$3 million. Dialysis treatments accounted for 70% of visits and 49% of costs. Patients receiving dialysis had higher utilization of outpatient services and associated cost, compared to patients who were not dialyzed. The presence of diabetes and the choice of conservative pathway were both predictors of higher frequency and cost of services. Longer program participation was associated with lower weekly utilization and cost. The program attracted patients representing various characteristics, pathways, needs, and outcomes. Exploring these patterns will enable better understanding of the patient population and improved service planning, in KSC and similar programs that aim to comprehensively address the needs of patients with advanced CKD and ESKD.