Metoprolol for the Prevention of Acute Exacerbations of COPD.

BACKGROUND: Observational studies suggest that beta-blockers may reduce the risk of exacerbations and death in patients with moderate or severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), but these findings have not been confirmed in randomized trials. METHODS: In this prospective, randomized trial, we assigned patients between the ages of 40 and 85 years who had COPD to receive either a beta-blocker (extended-release metoprolol) or placebo. All the patients had a clinical history of COPD, along with moderate airflow limitation and an increased risk of exacerbations, as evidenced by a history of exacerbations during the previous year or the prescribed use of supplemental oxygen. We excluded patients who were already taking a beta-blocker or who had an established indication for the use of such drugs. The primary end point was the time until the first exacerbation of COPD during the treatment period, which ranged from 336 to 350 days, depending on the adjusted dose of metoprolol. RESULTS: A total of 532 patients underwent randomization. The mean (±SD) age of the patients was 65.0±7.8 years; the mean forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) was 41.1±16.3% of the predicted value. The trial was stopped early because of futility with respect to the primary end point and safety concerns. There was no significant between-group difference in the median time until the first exacerbation, which was 202 days in the metoprolol group and 222 days in the placebo group (hazard ratio for metoprolol vs. placebo, 1.05; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.84 to 1.32; P = 0.66). Metoprolol was associated with a higher risk of exacerbation leading to hospitalization (hazard ratio, 1.91; 95% CI, 1.29 to 2.83). The frequency of side effects that were possibly related to metoprolol was similar in the two groups, as was the overall rate of nonrespiratory serious adverse events. During the treatment period, there were 11 deaths in the metoprolol group and 5 in the placebo group. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with moderate or severe COPD who did not have an established indication for beta-blocker use, the time until the first COPD exacerbation was similar in the metoprolol group and the placebo group. Hospitalization for exacerbation was more common among the patients treated with metoprolol. (Funded by the Department of Defense; BLOCK COPD ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02587351.).

Epigenetic marker of telomeric age is associated with exacerbations and hospitalizations in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

BACKGROUND: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is an age-related condition that has been associated with early telomere attrition; the clinical implications of telomere shortening in COPD are not well known. In this study we aimed to determine the relationship of the epigenetic regulation of telomeric length in peripheral blood with the risk of exacerbations and hospitalization in patients with COPD. METHODS: Blood DNA methylation profiles were obtained from 292 patients with COPD enrolled in the placebo arm of the Macrolide Azithromycin to Prevent Rapid Worsening of Symptoms Associated with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (MACRO) Study and who were followed for 1-year. We calculated telomere length based on DNA methylation markers (DNAmTL) and related this biomarker to the risk of exacerbation and hospitalization and health status (St. George Respiratory Questionnaire [SGRQ]) score over time using a Cox proportional hazards model. We also used linear models to investigate the associations of DNAmTL with the rates of exacerbation and hospitalization (adjusted for chronological age, lung function, race, sex, smoking, body mass index and cell composition). RESULTS: Participants with short DNAmTL demonstrated increased risk of exacerbation (P = 0.02) and hospitalization (P = 0.03) compared to those with longer DNAmTL. DNAmTL age acceleration was associated with higher rates of exacerbation (P = 1.35 × 10-04) and hospitalization (P = 5.21 × 10-03) and poor health status (lower SGRQ scores) independent of chronological age (P = 0.03). CONCLUSION: Telomeric age based on blood DNA methylation is associated with COPD exacerbation and hospitalization and thus a promising biomarker for poor outcomes in COPD.

Rationale and methods of the Advanced R2Eperfusion STrategies for Refractory Cardiac Arrest (ARREST) trial.

BACKGROUND: Venoarterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation has emerged as a prominent therapy for patients with refractory cardiac arrest. However, the optimal time of initiation remains unknown. AIM: The aim was to assess the rate of survival to hospital discharge in adult patients with refractory ventricular fibrillation/pulseless ventricular tachycardia out-of-hospital cardiac arrest treated with 1 of 2 local standards of care: (1) early venoarterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation-facilitated resuscitation for circulatory support and percutaneous coronary intervention, when needed, or (2) standard advanced cardiac life support resuscitation. DESIGN: Phase II, single-center, partially blinded, prospective, intention-to-treat, safety and efficacy clinical trial. POPULATION: Adults (aged 18-75), initial out-of-hospital cardiac arrest rhythm of ventricular fibrillation/pulseless ventricular tachycardia, no ROSC following 3 shocks, body morphology to accommodate a Lund University Cardiac Arrest System automated cardiopulmonary resuscitation device, and transfer time of <30 minutes. SETTING: Hospital-based. OUTCOMES: Primary: survival to hospital discharge. Secondary: safety, survival, and functional assessment at hospital discharge and 3 and 6 months, and cost. SAMPLE SIZE: Assuming success rates of 12% versus 37% in the 2 arms and 90% power, a type 1 error rate of .05, and a 15% rate of withdrawal prior to hospital discharge, the required sample size is N = 174 evaluated patients. CONCLUSIONS: The ARREST trial will generate safety/effectiveness data and comparative costs associated with extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation, informing broader implementation and a definitive Phase III clinical trial.

Emotional quality-of-life and patient-reported limitation in sports participation in children with uncorrected congenital and acquired heart disease in healthcare-restricted settings in low- and middle-income countries.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about emotional quality-of-life in paediatric heart disease in low- and middle-income countries where the prevalence of uncorrected lesions is high. Research on emotional quality-of-life and its predictors in these settings is key to planning interventions. METHODS: Ten-year retrospective cross-sectional study of children aged 6-17 years with uncorrected congenital or acquired heart disease in 12 low- and middle-income countries was conducted. Emotional functioning score of the PedsQL TM 4.0 generic core scale and data on patient-reported limitation in sports participation were collected via in-person interview and analysed using regression analyses. RESULTS: Ninety-four children reported mean emotional functioning scores of 71.94 (SD 25.32) [95% CI 66.75-77.13] with lower scores independently associated with having a parent with a chronic illness or who had died (p = 0.005), having less than three siblings (p = 0.007), and reporting a subjective limitation in carrying an item equivalent to a 4 lb load (p = 0.021). Patient-reported limitation in sports participation at least "sometimes" was present in 69% and was independently associated with experiencing symptoms at least once a month (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Some of the factors which were associated with better emotional quality-of-life were similar to those identified in previous studies in patients with corrected defects. Patient-reported limitation in sports participation is common. In addition to corrective surgery and exercise, numerous other interventions which are practicable during surgical missions might improve emotional quality-of-life.

Serum IgG subclass levels and risk of exacerbations and hospitalizations in patients with COPD.

BACKGROUND: The literature is scarce regarding the prevalence and clinical impact of IgG subclass deficiency in COPD. We investigated the prevalence of IgG subclass deficiencies and their association with exacerbations and hospitalizations using subjects from two COPD cohorts. METHODS: We measured IgG subclass levels using immunonephelometry in serum samples from participants enrolled in two previous COPD trials: Macrolide Azithromycin for Prevention of Exacerbations of COPD (MACRO; n = 976) and Simvastatin for the Prevention of Exacerbations in Moderate-to-Severe COPD (STATCOPE; n = 653). All samples were collected from clinically stable participants upon entry into both studies. IgG subclass deficiency was diagnosed when IgG subclass levels were below their respective lower limit of normal: IgG1 < 2.8 g/L; IgG2 < 1.15 g/L; IgG3 < 0.24 g/L; and IgG4 < 0.052 g/L. To investigate the impact of IgG subclass levels on time to first exacerbation or hospitalization, we log-transformed IgG levels and performed Cox regression models, with adjustments for confounders. RESULTS: One or more IgG subclass deficiencies were found in 173 (17.7%) and 133 (20.4%) participants in MACRO and STATCOPE, respectively. Lower IgG1 or IgG2 levels resulted in increased risk of exacerbations with adjusted hazard ratios (HR) of 1.30 (95% CI, 1.10-1.54, p < 0.01) and 1.19 (95% CI, 1.05-1.35, p < 0.01), respectively in the MACRO study, with STATCOPE yielding similar results. Reduced IgG1 or IgG2 levels were also associated with increased risk of hospitalizations: the adjusted HR for IgG1 and IgG2 was 1.52 (95% CI: 1.15-2.02, p < 0.01) and 1.33 (95% CI, 1.08-1.64, p < 0.01), respectively for the MACRO study; in STATCOPE, only IgG2 was an independent predictor of hospitalization. In our multivariate Cox models, IgG3 and IgG4 levels did not result in significant associations for both outcomes in either MACRO or STATCOPE cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: Approximately 1 in 5 COPD patients had one or more IgG subclass deficiencies. Reduced IgG subclass levels were independent risk factors for both COPD exacerbations (IgG1 and IgG2) and hospitalizations (IgG2) in two COPD cohorts. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This study used serum samples from participants of the MACRO ( NCT00325897 ) and STATCOPE ( NCT01061671 ) trials.

School Practices to Foster LGBT-Supportive Climate: Associations with Adolescent Bullying Involvement.

Lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender (LGBT) youth experience disproportionate rates of bullying compared to their heterosexual peers. Schools are well-positioned to address these disparities by creating supportive school climates for LGBT youth, but more research is needed to examine the variety of practices and professional development opportunities put in place to this end. The current study examines how school practices to create supportive LGBT student climate relate to student reports of bullying. Student-level data come from the 2013 Minnesota Student Survey, a state-wide survey of risk and protective factors. Ninth and eleventh grade students (N = 31,183) reported on frequency of physical and relational bullying victimization and perpetration and sexual orientation-based harassment. School administrators reported on six practices related to creating supportive LGBT school climate (N = 103 schools): having a point person for LGBT student issues, displaying sexual orientation-specific content, having a gay-straight alliance, discussing bullying based on sexual orientation, and providing professional development around LGBT inclusion and LGBT student issues. An index was created to indicate how many practices each school used (M = 2.45; SD = 1.76). Multilevel logistic regressions indicated that students attending schools with more supportive LGBT climates reported lower odds of relational bullying victimization, physical bullying perpetration, and sexual orientation-based harassment compared to students in schools with less supportive LGBT climates. Sexual orientation did not moderate these relations, indicating that LGBT-supportive practices may be protective for all students, regardless of their sexual orientation. Findings support school-wide efforts to create supportive climates for LGBQ youth as part of a larger bullying prevention strategy.

Lifestyle Intervention and Medical Management With vs Without Roux-en-Y Gastric Bypass and Control of Hemoglobin A1c, LDL Cholesterol, and Systolic Blood Pressure at 5 Years in the Diabetes Surgery Study.

Importance: The Roux-en-Y gastric bypass is effective in achieving established diabetes treatment targets, but durability is unknown. Objective: To compare durability of Roux-en-Y gastric bypass added to intensive lifestyle and medical management in achieving diabetes control targets. Design, Setting, and Participants: Observational follow-up of a randomized clinical trial at 4 sites in the United States and Taiwan, involving 120 participants who had a hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) level of 8.0% or higher and a body mass index between 30.0 and 39.9 (enrolled between April 2008 and December 2011) were followed up for 5 years, ending in November 2016. Interventions: Lifestyle-intensive medical management intervention based on the Diabetes Prevention Program and LookAHEAD trials for 2 years, with and without (60 participants each) Roux-en-Y gastric bypass surgery followed by observation to year 5. Main Outcomes and Measures: The American Diabetes Association composite triple end point of hemoglobin A1c less than 7.0%, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol less than 100 mg/dL, and systolic blood pressure less than 130 mm Hg at 5 years. Results: Of 120 participants who were initially randomized (mean age, 49 years [SD, 8 years], 72 women [60%]), 98 (82%) completed 5 years of follow-up. Baseline characteristics were similar between groups: mean (SD) body mass index 34.4 (3.2) for the lifestyle-medical management group and 34.9 (3.0) for the gastric bypass group and had hemoglobin A1c levels of 9.6% (1.2) and 9.6% (1.0), respectively. At 5 years, 13 participants (23%) in the gastric bypass group and 2 (4%) in the lifestyle-intensive medical management group had achieved the composite triple end point (difference, 19%; 95% CI, 4%-34%; P = .01). In the fifth year, 31 patients (55%) in the gastric bypass group vs 8 (14%) in the lifestyle-medical management group achieved an HbA1c level of less than 7.0% (difference, 41%; 95% CI, 19%-63%; P = .002). Gastric bypass had more serious adverse events than did the lifestyle-medical management intervention, 66 events vs 38 events, most frequently gastrointestinal events and surgical complications such as strictures, small bowel obstructions, and leaks. Gastric bypass had more parathyroid hormone elevation but no difference in B12 deficiency. Conclusions and Relevance: In extended follow-up of obese adults with type 2 diabetes randomized to adding gastric bypass compared with lifestyle and intensive medical management alone, there remained a significantly better composite triple end point in the surgical group at 5 years. However, because the effect size diminished over 5 years, further follow-up is needed to understand the durability of the improvement. Trial Registration: clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00641251.

Simvastatin for the prevention of exacerbations in moderate-to-severe COPD.

BACKGROUND: Retrospective studies have shown that statins decrease the rate and severity of exacerbations, the rate of hospitalization, and mortality in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). We prospectively studied the efficacy of simvastatin in preventing exacerbations in a large, multicenter, randomized trial. METHODS: We designed the Prospective Randomized Placebo-Controlled Trial of Simvastatin in the Prevention of COPD Exacerbations (STATCOPE) as a randomized, controlled trial of simvastatin (at a daily dose of 40 mg) versus placebo, with annual exacerbation rates as the primary outcome. Patients were eligible if they were 40 to 80 years of age, had COPD (defined by a forced expiratory volume in 1 second [FEV1] of less than 80% and a ratio of FEV1 to forced vital capacity of less than 70%), and had a smoking history of 10 or more pack-years, were receiving supplemental oxygen or treatment with glucocorticoids or antibiotic agents, or had had an emergency department visit or hospitalization for COPD within the past year. Patients with diabetes or cardiovascular disease and those who were taking statins or who required statins on the basis of Adult Treatment Panel III criteria were excluded. Participants were treated from 12 to 36 months at 45 centers. RESULTS: A total of 885 participants with COPD were enrolled for approximately 641 days; 44% of the patients were women. The patients had a mean (±SD) age of 62.2±8.4 years, an FEV1 that was 41.6±17.7% of the predicted value, and a smoking history of 50.6±27.4 pack-years. At the time of study closeout, the low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels were lower in the simvastatin-treated patients than in those who received placebo. The mean number of exacerbations per person-year was similar in the simvastatin and placebo groups: 1.36±1.61 exacerbations and 1.39±1.73 exacerbations, respectively (P=0.54). The median number of days to the first exacerbation was also similar: 223 days (95% confidence interval [CI], 195 to 275) and 231 days (95% CI, 193 to 303), respectively (P=0.34). The number of nonfatal serious adverse events per person-year was similar, as well: 0.63 events with simvastatin and 0.62 events with placebo. There were 30 deaths in the placebo group and 28 in the simvastatin group (P=0.89). CONCLUSIONS: Simvastatin at a daily dose of 40 mg did not affect exacerbation rates or the time to a first exacerbation in patients with COPD who were at high risk for exacerbations. (Funded by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute and the Canadian Institutes of Health Research; STATCOPE ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01061671.).

Serum bilirubin and the risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease exacerbations.

BACKGROUND: Bilirubin is a potent anti-oxidant and higher serum concentrations of bilirubin have been associated with better lung function, slower lung function decline, and lower incidence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). We sought to determine whether elevated bilirubin blood concentrations are associated with lower risk for acute exacerbations of COPD (AECOPD). METHODS: We performed a secondary analyses of data in the Simvastatin for Prevention of Exacerbations in Moderate-to-Severe COPD (STATCOPE) and the Azithromycin for Prevention of Exacerbations of COPD (MACRO) studies. We used time-dependent multivariable Cox proportional hazards analyses, using bilirubin concentrations prior to first AECOPD as the exposure variable and time to first AECOPD as the outcome variable. STATCOPE was used for model development, with validation in MACRO. RESULTS: In STATCOPE (n = 853), higher bilirubin was associated with a lower but statistically insignificant hazard for AECOPD, (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 0.89 per log10 increase [95%CI: 0.74 to 1.09; p = 0.26]). In the validation MACRO study (n = 1018), higher bilirubin was associated with a significantly lower hazard for AECOPD (aHR 0.80 per log10 increase [95%CI: 0.67 to 0.94; p = 0.008]). CONCLUSIONS: Bilirubin may be a biomarker of AECOPD risk and may be a novel therapeutic target to reduce AECOPD risk. TRIAL REGISTRATIONS: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01061671 (registered 02 February 2010) and ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00325897 (registered 12 May 2006).

Azithromycin and risk of COPD exacerbations in patients with and without Helicobacter pylori.

BACKGROUND: Helicobacter pylori (HP) infection is associated with reduced lung function and systemic inflammation in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients. Azithromycin (AZ) is active against HP and reduces the risk of COPD exacerbation. We determined whether HP infection status modifies the effects of AZ in COPD patients. METHODS: Plasma samples from 1018 subjects with COPD who participated in the Macrolide Azithromycin (MACRO) in COPD Study were used to determine the HP infection status at baseline and 12 months of follow-up using a serologic assay. Based on HP infection status and randomization to either AZ or placebo (PL), the subjects were divided into 4 groups: HP+/AZ, HP-/AZ, HP+/PL, and HP-/PL. Time to first exacerbation was compared across the 4 groups using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and a Cox proportional hazards model. The rates of exacerbation were compared using both the Kruskal-Wallis test and negative binomial analysis. Blood biomarkers at enrolment and at follow-up visits 3, 12, and 13 (1 month after treatment was stopped) months were measured. RESULTS: One hundred eighty one (17.8%) patients were seropositive to HP. Non-Caucasian participants were nearly three times more likely to be HP seropositive than Caucasian participants (37.4% vs 13.6%; p < 0.001). The median time to first exacerbation was significantly different across the four groups (p = 0.001) with the longest time in the HP+/AZ group (11.2 months, 95% CI; 8.4-12.5+) followed by the HP-/AZ group (8.0 months, 95% CI; 6.7-9.7). Hazard ratio (HR) for exacerbations was lowest in the HP+/AZ group after adjustment for age, sex, smoking status, ethnicity, history of peptic ulcer, dyspnea, previous hospital admission, GOLD grade of severity, and forced vital capacity (HR, 0.612; 95% CI, 0.442-0.846 vs HR, 0.789; 95% CI, 0.663-0.938 in the HP-/AZ group). Circulating levels of soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor-75 were reduced only in the HP+/AZ group after 3 months of AZ treatment (-0.87 ± 0.31 µg/L; p = 0.002); levels returned to baseline after discontinuing AZ. CONCLUSIONS: AZ is effective in preventing COPD exacerbations in patients with HP seropositivity, possibly by modulating TNF pathways related to HP infection.

Intraoperative Microstimulation Predicts Outcome of Postoperative Macrostimulation in Subthalamic Nucleus Deep Brain Stimulation for Parkinson's Disease.

BACKGROUND: In deep brain stimulation (DBS) of the subthalamic nucleus for treatment of Parkinson's Disease, a commonly encountered stimulation side effect is involuntary muscle contractions from spread of electrical current to cortico-spinal and cortico-bulbar fibers in the internal capsule. During surgery, a variety of techniques, including microelectrode recording (MER), are used to avoid positioning the DBS electrode too close to the internal capsule. At some centers, MER includes stimulating through the microelectrode (microstimulation). OBJECTIVE: To assess if intraoperative microstimulation can help avoid positioning the DBS electrode too close to the internal capsule. MATERIALS AND METHODS: From clinical records, we compiled microelectrode and DBS-electrode locations, microstimulation effect thresholds and DBS side effect thresholds. RESULTS: We found that capsular macrostimulation thresholds were significantly lower in cases where capsular microstimulation effects were observed. In addition, we found that lower-threshold for microstimulation-induced involuntary muscle contractions from a given DBS electrode contact predicts a lower threshold for involuntary muscle contractions as a side effect of stimulation with that contact. Specifically, our results suggest that capsular macrostimulation thresholds below 2V are avoided when the product of microstimulation threshold (in µA) and distance (in mm) is greater than 500. CONCLUSIONS: intraoperative microstimulation can help avoid positioning the DBS electrode too close to the internal capsule.

The Association Between Rate and Severity of Exacerbations in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: An Application of a Joint Frailty-Logistic Model.

Exacerbations are a hallmark of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Evidence suggests the presence of substantial between-individual variability (heterogeneity) in exacerbation rates. The question of whether individuals vary in their tendency towards experiencing severe (versus mild) exacerbations, or whether there is an association between exacerbation rate and severity, has not yet been studied. We used data from the MACRO Study, a 1-year randomized trial of the use of azithromycin for prevention of COPD exacerbations (United States and Canada, 2006-2010; n = 1,107, mean age = 65.2 years, 59.1% male). A parametric frailty model was combined with a logistic regression model, with bivariate random effects capturing heterogeneity in rate and severity. The average rate of exacerbation was 1.53 episodes/year, with 95% of subjects having a model-estimated rate of 0.47-4.22 episodes/year. The overall ratio of severe exacerbations to total exacerbations was 0.22, with 95% of subjects having a model-estimated ratio of 0.04-0.60. We did not confirm an association between exacerbation rate and severity (P = 0.099). A unified model, implemented in standard software, could estimate joint heterogeneity in COPD exacerbation rate and severity and can have applications in similar contexts where inference on event time and intensity is considered. We provide SAS code (SAS Institute, Inc., Cary, North Carolina) and a simulated data set to facilitate further uses of this method.

Intimate partner violence in late adolescence and young adulthood and subsequent cardiovascular risk in adulthood.

BACKGROUND: Childhood maltreatment has been linked to adulthood cardiovascular disease (CVD). Little is known about the relationship between intimate partner violence (IPV) in late adolescence and young adulthood and CVD risk later in adulthood. PURPOSE: To examine whether IPV perpetration and victimization experienced in late adolescence and young adulthood are associated with CVD risk among adults in the United States and whether this relationship differs by sex. METHODS: Data include 9976 participants (50% female) in the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health. Physical and sexual IPV were measured at wave 3 (2001/02) with items from the revised Conflict Tactics Scales. Participants'30-year risk of CVD was calculated at wave 4 (2008/09) using a Framingham prediction model. Linear regression models adjusted for confounders and IPV by sex interaction terms were tested to examine the relationship. RESULTS: The mean CVD risk score was 13.18% (95% CI: 12.71, 13.64). Aone-standard deviation increase in the victimization score was associated with a 0.28% (95% CI: 0.03, 0.54) increase in CVD risk. Perpetration was similarly positively associated with CVD risk (beta: 0.33, 95% CI: 0.03, 0.62). When measured as a composite, all violence types were associated with increased CVD risk but only prior exposure to both victimization and perpetration reached statistical significance (0.62%, 95% CI: 0.01, 1.22). No differences by sex were detected. CONCLUSIONS: Effect sizes are not large, but early detection of increased CVD risk in this relatively young population is notable and worthy of further study to inform the clinical response.

Individualized prediction of lung-function decline in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

BACKGROUND: The rate of lung-function decline in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) varies substantially among individuals. We sought to develop and validate an individualized prediction model for forced expiratory volume at 1 second (FEV1) in current smokers with mild-to-moderate COPD. METHODS: Using data from a large long-term clinical trial (the Lung Health Study), we derived mixed-effects regression models to predict future FEV1 values over 11 years according to clinical traits. We modelled heterogeneity by allowing regression coefficients to vary across individuals. Two independent cohorts with COPD were used for validating the equations. RESULTS: We used data from 5594 patients (mean age 48.4 yr, 63% men, mean baseline FEV1 2.75 L) to create the individualized prediction equations. There was significant between-individual variability in the rate of FEV1 decline, with the interval for the annual rate of decline that contained 95% of individuals being -124 to -15 mL/yr for smokers and -83 to 15 mL/yr for sustained quitters. Clinical variables in the final model explained 88% of variation around follow-up FEV1. The C statistic for predicting severity grades was 0.90. Prediction equations performed robustly in the 2 external data sets. INTERPRETATION: A substantial part of individual variation in FEV1 decline can be explained by easily measured clinical variables. The model developed in this work can be used for prediction of future lung health in patients with mild-to-moderate COPD. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Lung Health Study - ClinicalTrials.gov, no. NCT00000568; Pan-Canadian Early Detection of Lung Cancer Study - ClinicalTrials.gov, no. NCT00751660.

The relationship between Helicobacter pylori seropositivity and COPD.

RATIONALE: Chronic systemic infections such as those with Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) may contribute to the evolution and progression of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Using data from the Lung Health Study (LHS), we determined the relationship of H. pylori infection with the severity and progression of COPD. METHODS: Using an immunoassay, we measured H. pylori immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibody titres in serum samples of 4765 patients with mild-to-moderate COPD. We then determined their relationship with the individual's FEV1 and the rate of decline in FEV1 and mortality over 11 years using multiple regression analysis. RESULTS: Approximately 18% of the patients were seropositive to H. pylori and these individuals demonstrated lower FEV1 (L) values at every study visit compared with individuals who were seronegative for H. pylori (p value=0.00012). However, patients with seropositivity to H. pylori were on average 0.012 m shorter than those with seronegativity (p value=0.0015). The significant relationship between FEV1 and H. pylori seropositivity disappeared when FEV1 per cent predicted (FEV1pp) was used (p value=0.45). H. pylori seropositive individuals had greater circulating C reactive protein (CRP) levels compared with H. pylori seronegative individuals (p value=0.012), and had increased risk of cardiovascular mortality (relative risk 1.61, p=0.05). CONCLUSIONS: H. pylori infection was associated with reduced lung function that is most likely due to the effect of the bacterium on lung growth earlier in life. It is also associated with systemic inflammation and increased risk of cardiovascular mortality in patients with COPD. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBERS: NCT00000568 and NCT00000569.

Club cell protein 16 and disease progression in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

RATIONALE: Club (Clara) cell protein 16 (CC-16) is a protein that is synthesized predominantly in the lungs and is detectable in serum. Its expression decreases with lung injury and smoking, and is thus a marker of bronchial cell dysfunction. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the possibility of using serum CC-16 as a biomarker for disease progression in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). METHODS: We measured serum CC-16 levels from 4,724 subjects with mild-to-moderate airflow limitation in the Lung Health Study. Using a linear regression model, we determined the relationship of serum CC-16 concentrations to decline in lung function over 9 years. In addition, to determine whether CC-16 plays a major role in the pathogenesis of mild COPD, we exposed CC-16-deficient (-/-) mice to 6 months of cigarette smoke. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Reduced serum concentrations of CC-16 were associated with accelerated decline in FEV1 over 9 years (P < 0.0001), and this association persisted after adjustments for age, sex, race, smoking status, airway reactivity, body mass index, and baseline FEV1 (P = 0.0002). However, CC-16(-/-) mice did not demonstrate an enhanced risk of emphysema or small airway remodeling in response to cigarette smoke. CONCLUSIONS: Serum CC-16 is associated with disease progression, and may assist in the identification of "rapid progressors." However, the absence of CC-16 does not appear to modify the risk of cigarette-related COPD in mice.