Clinical impact of gender and age at onset on disease trajectory in primary progressive multiple sclerosis patients.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Primary-progressive multiple sclerosis (PPMS) is characterized by gradual neurological deterioration without relapses. This study aimed to investigate the clinical impact of gender and age at disease onset on disease progression and disability accumulation in patients with this disease phenotype. METHODS: Secondary data from the RelevarEM registry, a longitudinal database in Argentina, were analyzed. The cohort comprised patients with PPMS who met inclusion criteria. Statistical analysis with multilevel Bayesian robust regression modeling was conducted to assess the associations between gender, age at onset, and Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score trajectories. RESULTS: We identified 125 patients with a confirmed diagnosis of PPMS encompassing a total of 464 observations. We found no significant differences in EDSS scores after 10 years of disease progression between genders (-0.08; credible interval (CI): -0.60, 0.42). A 20-year difference in age at onset did not show significant differences in EDSS score after 10 years of disease progression (0.281; CI: -0.251, 0.814). Finally, we also did not find any clinically relevant difference between gender EDSS score with a difference of 20 years in age at onset (-0.021; CI: -0.371, 0.319). CONCLUSION: Biological plausibility of gender and age effects does not correlate with clinical impact measured by EDSS score.

Incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in patients with multiple sclerosis who received SARS-CoV-2 vaccines and are under treatment with high-efficacy therapies in Argentina.

We aimed to evaluate the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infection of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines in people with MS (PwMS) on high-efficacy disease-modifying therapies (HET) included in the national MS registry in Argentina (RelevarEM). METHODS: Non-interventional, retrospective cohort study that collected information directly from RelevarEM. Adult PwMS who had been treated for at least 6 months with a HET (ocrelizumab, natalizumab, alemtuzumab, cladribine) who had received at least two doses of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines available in Argentina were included. Full course of vaccination was considered after the second dose of the corresponding vaccines. Cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection was reported for the whole cohort by Kaplan-Meier survival curves (which is expressed in percentage) as well as incidence density (which is expressed per 10.000 patients/day with 95% CI). RESULTS: Two hundred twenty-eight PwMS were included. Most frequent first and second dose received was AstraZeneca vaccine, followed by Sputnik vaccine. Most frequent HETs used in included patients were cladribine in 79 (34.8%). We found an incidence density of breakthrough COVID-19 infection of 3.5 × 10.000 patients/day (95% CI 2.3-6.7) after vaccination in Argentina. We described the incidence rate after vaccination for every HET used, it being significantly higher for ocrelizumab compared with other HETs (p = 0.005). Only five patients presented a relapse during the follow-up period with no differences regarding the pre-vaccination period. CONCLUSIONS: We found an incidence density of breakthrough COVID-19 infection of 3.5 × 10.000 patients/day (95% CI 2.3-6.7) after vaccination in Argentina.

Frequency of new asymptomatic MRI lesions during attacks and follow-up of patients with NMOSD in a real-world setting.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to assess the frequency of new asymptomatic lesions on brain and spinal imaging (magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)) and their association with subsequent relapses in a large cohort of neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder (NMOSD) patients in Argentina. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed 675 MRI (225 performed during an attack and 450 during the relapse-free period (performed at least 3 months from the last attack)) of NMOSD patients who had at least 2 years of clinical and MRI follow-up since disease onset. Kaplan-Meier (KM) curves were used for depicting time from remission MRI to subsequent relapse. RESULTS: We included 135 NMOSD patients (64.4% were aquaporin-4-immunoglobulin G (AQP4-IgG)-positive). We found that 26 (19.26%) and 66 (48.88%) of patients experienced at least one new asymptomatic MRI lesion during both the relapse-free period and attacks, respectively. The most frequent asymptomatic MRI lesions were optic nerves followed by short-segment myelitis during the relapse-free period and attacks. KM curves did not show differences in the time taken to develop a new relapse. CONCLUSION: Our findings showed that new asymptomatic lesions are relatively frequent. However, the presence of new asymptomatic MRI lesions during the relapse-free period and at relapses was not associated with a shorter time to developing subsequent relapses.

Variability of the response to immunotherapy among subgroups of patients with multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: This study assessed the effect of patient characteristics on the response to disease-modifying therapy (DMT) in multiple sclerosis (MS). METHODS: We extracted data from 61,810 patients from 135 centers across 35 countries from the MSBase registry. The selection criteria were: clinically isolated syndrome or definite MS, follow-up ≥ 1 year, and Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score ≥ 3, with ≥1 score recorded per year. Marginal structural models with interaction terms were used to compare the hazards of 12-month confirmed worsening and improvement of disability, and the incidence of relapses between treated and untreated patients stratified by their characteristics. RESULTS: Among 24,344 patients with relapsing MS, those on DMTs experienced 48% reduction in relapse incidence (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.52, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.45-0.60), 46% lower risk of disability worsening (HR = 0.54, 95% CI = 0.41-0.71), and 32% greater chance of disability improvement (HR = 1.32, 95% CI = 1.09-1.59). The effect of DMTs on EDSS worsening and improvement and the risk of relapses was attenuated with more severe disability. The magnitude of the effect of DMT on suppressing relapses declined with higher prior relapse rate and prior cerebral magnetic resonance imaging activity. We did not find any evidence for the effect of age on the effectiveness of DMT. After inclusion of 1985 participants with progressive MS, the effect of DMT on disability mostly depended on MS phenotype, whereas its effect on relapses was driven mainly by prior relapse activity. CONCLUSIONS: DMT is generally most effective among patients with lower disability and in relapsing MS phenotypes. There is no evidence of attenuation of the effect of DMT with age.

Neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorders with and without associated autoimmune diseases.

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to determinate the frequency of this association and compare the features of neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder (NMOSD) with and without associated autoimmune diseases (AD) in a Latin American (LATAM) population in clinical practice. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of patients with NMOSD according to the 2015 diagnostic criteria. Patients from Argentina (n=77), Brazil (n=46), and Venezuela (n=17) were enrolled and classified into two groups as follows: with AD or without AD. Clinical, paraclinical (including aquaporin-4 antibodies (AQP4-ab) status), magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), and prognosis data were analyzed and compared. Kaplan-Meier (KM) and the Nelson-Aalen estimator analyses were performed to estimate both time and the cumulative hazard risk of disability reaching an EDSS≥4; and time for the first recurrence. RESULTS: Out of 140 patients, 33 (23.5%) patients had associated an AD at presentation. The most frequent associated AD was Hashimoto disease (n=10) followed by lupus (n=7) and Sjogren's syndrome (n=6). However, rituximab use (42.4% vs. 21.5%, p=0.02), female gender (82.2% vs. 100%, p=0.006), corticospinal lesions on MRI (0% vs. 12.5%, p=0.01) at onset, and positivity for antinuclear antibodies (21.2% vs. 48.4%, p=0.03) were significantly associated with NMOSD patients with AD in comparison to NMOSD patients without AD. No differences were found in other clinical and paraclinical aspects between groups. KM and Nelson-Aalen estimator analyses did not show differences between groups. CONCLUSION: NMOSD patients associated with AD were observed in 23.5%. In addition, NMOSD patients with and without associated AD were similar in most evaluated features.

Disability outcomes in NMOSD and MOGAD patients: data from a nationwide registry in Argentina.

The objective was to evaluate time to reach an EDSS of 4, 6, and 7 in NMOSD and MOGAD patients included in the Argentinean MS and NMOSD registry (RelevarEM, NCT 03,375,177). METHODS: NMOSD patients diagnosed according to 2015 criteria and with MOGAD were identified. Patients with at least 3 years of follow-up and periodic clinical evaluations with EDSS outcomes were included. AQP4-antibody and MOG-antibody status was recorded, and patients were stratified as seropositive and seronegative for AQP4-antibody. EDSS of 4, 6, and 7 were defined as dependent variables. Log rank test was used to identify differences between groups. RESULTS: Registry data was provided for a total of 137 patients. Of these, seventy-five presented AQP4-ab-positive NMOSD, 45 AQP4-ab-negative NMOSD, and 11 MOGAD. AQP4-ab status was determined by cell-based assay (CBA) in 72% of NMOSD patients. MOG-ab status was tested by CBA in all cases. Mean time to EDSS of 4 was 53.6 ± 24.5 vs. 63.1 ± 32.2 vs. 44.7 ± 32 months in seropositive, seronegative NMOSD, and MOGAD, respectively (p = 0.76). Mean time to EDSS of 6 was 79.2 ± 44.3 vs. 75.7 ± 48.6 vs. 54.7 ± 50 months in seropositive, seronegative NMOSD, and MOGAD (p = 0.23), while mean time to EDSS of 7 was 86.8 ± 54 vs. 80.4 ± 51 vs. 58.5 ± 47 months in seropositive, seronegative NMOSD, and MOGAD (p = 0.39). CONCLUSION: No differences were observed between NMOSD (seropositive and seronegative) and MOGAD in survival curves.

Chiasmatic lesions on conventional magnetic resonance imaging during the first event of optic neuritis in patients with neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder and myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein-associated disease in a Latin American cohort.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Optic neuritis (ON) is often the initial symptom of neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder (NMOSD) and myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein-associated disease (MOGAD). We aimed to compare the frequency and pattern of chiasmatic lesions in MOGAD-related ON (MOGAD-ON) and NMOSD-related ON (NMOSD-ON) using conventional brain imaging (magnetic resonance imaging [MRI]) in Latin America (LATAM). METHODS: We reviewed the medical records and brain MRI (≤30 days from ON onset) of patients with a first event of MOGAD-ON and NMOSD-ON. Patients from Argentina (n = 72), Chile (n = 21), Ecuador (n = 31), Brazil (n = 30), Venezuela (n = 10) and Mexico (n = 82) were included. Antibody status was tested using a cell-based assay. Demographic, clinical, imaging and prognostic (as measured by the Visual Functional System Score [VFSS] of the Expanded Disability Status Scale) data were compared. RESULTS: A total of 246 patients (208 NMOSD and 38 MOGAD) were included. No differences were found in gender and ethnicity between the groups. We observed chiasmatic lesions in 66/208 (31.7%) NMOSD-ON and in 5/38 (13.1%) MOGAD-ON patients (p = 0.01). Of these patients with chiasmatic lesions, 54/66 (81.8%) and 4/5 had associated longitudinally extensive optic nerve lesions, 45/66 (68%) and 4/5 had bilateral lesions, and 31/66 (47%) and 4/5 showed gadolinium-enhancing chiasmatic lesions, respectively. A positive correlation was observed between VFSS and presence of bilateral (r = 0,28, p < 0.0001), chiasmatic (r = 0.27, p = 0.0001) and longitudinally extensive lesions (r = 0,25, p = 0.0009) in the NMOSD-ON group, but no correlations were observed in the MOGAD-ON group. CONCLUSIONS: Chiasmatic lesions were significantly more common in NMOSD than in MOGAD during an ON attack in this LATAM cohort. Further studies are needed to assess the generalizability of these results.

Confirmed disability progression as a marker of permanent disability in multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The prevention of disability over the long term is the main treatment goal in multiple sclerosis (MS); however, randomized clinical trials evaluate only short-term treatment effects on disability. This study aimed to define criteria for 6-month confirmed disability progression events of MS with a high probability of resulting in sustained long-term disability worsening. METHODS: In total, 14,802 6-month confirmed disability progression events were identified in 8741 patients from the global MSBase registry. For each 6-month confirmed progression event (13,321 in the development and 1481 in the validation cohort), a sustained progression score was calculated based on the demographic and clinical characteristics at the time of progression that were predictive of long-term disability worsening. The score was externally validated in the Cladribine Tablets Treating Multiple Sclerosis Orally (CLARITY) trial. RESULTS: The score was based on age, sex, MS phenotype, relapse activity, disability score and its change from baseline, number of affected functional system domains and worsening in six of the domains. In the internal validation cohort, a 61% lower chance of improvement was estimated with each unit increase in the score (hazard ratio 0.39, 95% confidence interval 0.29-0.52; discriminatory index 0.89). The proportions of progression events sustained at 5 years stratified by the score were 1: 72%; 2: 88%; 3: 94%; 4: 100%. The results of the CLARITY trial were confirmed for reduction of disability progression that was >88% likely to be sustained (events with score ˃1.5). CONCLUSIONS: Clinicodemographic characteristics of 6-month confirmed disability progression events identify those at high risk of sustained long-term disability. This knowledge will allow future trials to better assess the effect of therapy on long-term disability accrual.

Influenza vaccination status in multiple sclerosis patients from Latin America.

The objective of the present study was to identify the frequency of MS patients in Latin America (LATAM) that received the influenza vaccine during the most recent season and the reasons related to non-vaccination. Cross-sectional study between November and December 2020 in a large cohort of MS patients from LATAM. Patients responded about recommendation of receiving influenza vaccine and the use of it as well as reasons for not using the vaccine. Four hundred twelve MS patients were included in the analysis. 47.3% of patients were recommended to receive the vaccine from the treating physician. Nearly 54% of patients did not receive the influenza vaccine, and the most frequent cause was that it was neither recommended nor mentioned by the treating physician (27.4%). Female gender (OR = 2.3, 95%CI 1.4-3.8, p = 0.001) was associated with an increased risk of recommendation, while a progressive form of MS and higher EDSS decreased the risk (OR = 0.49, 95%CI 0.27-0.90, p = 0.023; OR = 0.65, 95%CI 0.55-0.97, p = 0.02, respectively). Despite the evidence to recommend the influenza vaccine in MS patients, a limited number of patients in clinical practice received such recommendation.

Diagnostic uncertainty during the transition to secondary progressive multiple sclerosis: Multicenter study in Argentina.

BACKGROUND: A period of diagnostic uncertainty often characterizes the clinical transition from relapsing to secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS). OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to describe the length of time required to reclassify relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS) patients who have clinically transitioned to SPMS (diagnosis uncertainty). METHODS: This is a retrospective multicenter cohort study conducted in Argentina, identifying in every center all patients with diagnosis of MS who transitioned from RRMS to SPMS during the follow-up. We identified the dates of the last definitive RRMS and first definitive SPMS diagnoses for diagnostic uncertainty. The time required to reclassify RRMS who transitioned to SPMS and the time from disease onset to reclassify SPMS were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. RESULTS: A total of 170 patients were included, where the mean age at disease onset (first symptom) was 36 ± 6 years; the length of time required to reclassify RRMS patients who transitioned to SPMS was 3.3 ± 1.1 years (range = 1-7 years); and the time from disease onset to classify SPMS was 19.4 ± 8.5 years (range = 16-35 years). CONCLUSION: A period of diagnostic uncertainty regarding the transition from RRMS to SPMS was present in many of our patients, with a mean time of 3.3 years.

Early clinical markers of aggressive multiple sclerosis.

Patients with the 'aggressive' form of multiple sclerosis accrue disability at an accelerated rate, typically reaching Expanded Disability Status Score (EDSS) ≥ 6 within 10 years of symptom onset. Several clinicodemographic factors have been associated with aggressive multiple sclerosis, but less research has focused on clinical markers that are present in the first year of disease. The development of early predictive models of aggressive multiple sclerosis is essential to optimize treatment in this multiple sclerosis subtype. We evaluated whether patients who will develop aggressive multiple sclerosis can be identified based on early clinical markers. We then replicated this analysis in an independent cohort. Patient data were obtained from the MSBase observational study. Inclusion criteria were (i) first recorded disability score (EDSS) within 12 months of symptom onset; (ii) at least two recorded EDSS scores; and (iii) at least 10 years of observation time, based on time of last recorded EDSS score. Patients were classified as having 'aggressive multiple sclerosis' if all of the following criteria were met: (i) EDSS ≥ 6 reached within 10 years of symptom onset; (ii) EDSS ≥ 6 confirmed and sustained over ≥6 months; and (iii) EDSS ≥ 6 sustained until the end of follow-up. Clinical predictors included patient variables (sex, age at onset, baseline EDSS, disease duration at first visit) and recorded relapses in the first 12 months since disease onset (count, pyramidal signs, bowel-bladder symptoms, cerebellar signs, incomplete relapse recovery, steroid administration, hospitalization). Predictors were evaluated using Bayesian model averaging. Independent validation was performed using data from the Swedish Multiple Sclerosis Registry. Of the 2403 patients identified, 145 were classified as having aggressive multiple sclerosis (6%). Bayesian model averaging identified three statistical predictors: age > 35 at symptom onset, EDSS ≥ 3 in the first year, and the presence of pyramidal signs in the first year. This model significantly predicted aggressive multiple sclerosis [area under the curve (AUC) = 0.80, 95% confidence intervals (CIs): 0.75, 0.84, positive predictive value = 0.15, negative predictive value = 0.98]. The presence of all three signs was strongly predictive, with 32% of such patients meeting aggressive disease criteria. The absence of all three signs was associated with a 1.4% risk. Of the 556 eligible patients in the Swedish Multiple Sclerosis Registry cohort, 34 (6%) met criteria for aggressive multiple sclerosis. The combination of all three signs was also predictive in this cohort (AUC = 0.75, 95% CIs: 0.66, 0.84, positive predictive value = 0.15, negative predictive value = 0.97). Taken together, these findings suggest that older age at symptom onset, greater disability during the first year, and pyramidal signs in the first year are early indicators of aggressive multiple sclerosis.

Brain and spinal MRI features distinguishing MS from different AQP4 antibody serostatus NMOSD at disease onset in a cohort of Latin American patients.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to evaluate magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) previously used criteria (Matthews's criteria, MC) for differentiating multiple sclerosis (MS) from neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorders (NMOSD) in Caucasian and non-Caucasian populations (Argentina, Brazil and Venezuela) with positive (P-NMOSD), negative (N-NMOSD), and unknown (U-NMOSD) aquaporin-4 antibody serostatus at disease onset and to assess the added diagnostic value of spinal cord MRI in these populations. METHODS: We reviewed medical records, and MRIs were assessed by two blinded evaluators and were scored using MC. Short-segment transverse myelitis (STM) was added as a new criterion. MC sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) were determined. RESULTS: We included 282 patients (MS = 188 and NMOSD = 94). MC applied to the entire cohort showed 97.8% sensitivity, 82.9% specificity, 92.0% PPV, and 95.1% NPV for differentiating MS from NMOSD. A subanalysis applied only to non-Caucasian (MS = 89 and NMOSD = 47) showed 100% sensitivity, 80.8% specificity, 90.8% PPV, and 100% NPV. Similar sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV of MC for MS versus P-NMOSD (n = 55), N-NMOSD (n = 28), and U-NMOSD (n = 21) were observed. CONCLUSION: MC distinguished MS from NMOSD of all serostatus in a Latin American cohort that included non-Caucasian populations. Addition of STM to MC did not raise the accuracy significantly.

Risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis: A longitudinal study.

BACKGROUND: The risk factors for conversion from relapsing-remitting to secondary progressive multiple sclerosis remain highly contested. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to determine the demographic, clinical and paraclinical features that influence the risk of conversion to secondary progressive multiple sclerosis. METHODS: Patients with adult-onset relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis and at least four recorded disability scores were selected from MSBase, a global observational cohort. The risk of conversion to objectively defined secondary progressive multiple sclerosis was evaluated at multiple time points per patient using multivariable marginal Cox regression models. Sensitivity analyses were performed. RESULTS: A total of 15,717 patients were included in the primary analysis. Older age (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.02, p < 0.001), longer disease duration (HR = 1.01, p = 0.038), a higher Expanded Disability Status Scale score (HR = 1.30, p < 0.001), more rapid disability trajectory (HR = 2.82, p < 0.001) and greater number of relapses in the previous year (HR = 1.07, p = 0.010) were independently associated with an increased risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis. Improving disability (HR = 0.62, p = 0.039) and disease-modifying therapy exposure (HR = 0.71, p = 0.007) were associated with a lower risk. Recent cerebral magnetic resonance imaging activity, evidence of spinal cord lesions and oligoclonal bands in the cerebrospinal fluid were not associated with the risk of conversion. CONCLUSION: Risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis increases with age, duration of illness and worsening disability and decreases with improving disability. Therapy may delay the onset of secondary progression.

Redefining the Multiple Sclerosis Severity Score (MSSS): The effect of sex and onset phenotype.

BACKGROUND: The Multiple Sclerosis Severity Score (MSSS) is a widely used measure of the disability progression rate. However, the global MSSS may not be the best basis for comparison between all patient groups. OBJECTIVE: We evaluated sex-specific and onset phenotype-specific MSSS matrices to determine if they were more effective than the global MSSS as a basis for comparison within these subsets. METHODS: Using a large international dataset of multiple sclerosis (MS) patient records and the original MSSS algorithm, we constructed global, sex-specific and onset phenotype-specific MSSS matrices. We compared matrices using permutation analysis. RESULTS: Our final dataset included 30,203 MS cases, with 28.9% males and 6.5% progressive-onset cases. Our global MSSS matrix did not differ from previously published data (p > 0.05). The progressive-onset-specific matrix differed significantly from the relapsing-onset-specific matrix (p < 0.001), with lower MSSS attributed to cases with the same Expanded Disability Status Score (EDSS) and disease duration. When evaluated with a simulation, using an onset-specific MSSS improved statistical power in mixed cohorts. There were no significant differences by sex. CONCLUSION: The differences in the disability accrual rate between progressive- and relapsing-onset MS have a significant effect on MSSS. An onset-specific MSSS should be used when comparing the rate of disability progression among progressive-onset cases and for mixed cohorts.

Clinical and demographic characteristics of primary progressive multiple sclerosis in Argentina: Argentinean registry cohort study (RelevarEM).

BACKGROUND: Primary progressive multiple sclerosis (PPMS) is an infrequent clinical form of multiple sclerosis (MS). Scarce information is available about PPMS in Latin America. The aim of this work is to describe the clinical and demographic characteristics of PPMS patients in Argentina. MATERIAL AND METHODS: RelevarEM is a longitudinal, strictly observational registry in Argentina. Clinical and epidemiological data from PPMS patients were described. RESULTS: There were 144 cases of PPMS. They represented 7% of MS patients. The mean age was 44.1 years. The female:male ratio was 1.08. The mean Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score was 5.5 and the mean disease evolution time was 10.6 years. Oligoclonal bands were found in 72.9%. At the time of diagnosis, magnetic resonance imaging showed spinal cord lesions in 82.6% and contrast-enhancing brain lesions in 18.1% of patients. Almost one third of patients were treated with a disease-modifying drug, and ocrelizumab was the most frequently used (55.8%). CONCLUSIONS: PPMS is an infrequent subtype of MS and its recognition is of the highest importance as it has its own evolution, treatment, and prognosis. The importance of our research resides in providing local data and contributing to a better understanding of PPMS and its treatment in Latin America.

Correction to: Clinical and demographic characteristics of primary progressive multiple sclerosis in Argentina: Argentinean registry cohort study (RelevarEM).

The above article was published online with incorrect figure 1.

[Clinical and radiological outcomes measures in progressive multiple sclerosis]. / Evaluación clínica y por imágenes de la esclerosis múltiple progresiva.

During recent years, the development of measures to assess the accumulation of disability and inflammatory activity in the progressive forms of multiple sclerosis (MS) has been a central point of research in various groups. Several instruments have been developed and implemented in order to accurately and early identify the activity and progression in this MS phenotype. Many of these tools, with greater or lesser sensitivity, have been used in clinical trials, although their use in healthcare practice is not entirely familiar to professionals involved in the care of patients with MS. The objective of this review is to describe the clinical and imaging evaluation measures implemented during the last years to identify the activity and the evolution of the disease in its progressive forms.

Towards personalized therapy for multiple sclerosis: prediction of individual treatment response.

Timely initiation of effective therapy is crucial for preventing disability in multiple sclerosis; however, treatment response varies greatly among patients. Comprehensive predictive models of individual treatment response are lacking. Our aims were: (i) to develop predictive algorithms for individual treatment response using demographic, clinical and paraclinical predictors in patients with multiple sclerosis; and (ii) to evaluate accuracy, and internal and external validity of these algorithms. This study evaluated 27 demographic, clinical and paraclinical predictors of individual response to seven disease-modifying therapies in MSBase, a large global cohort study. Treatment response was analysed separately for disability progression, disability regression, relapse frequency, conversion to secondary progressive disease, change in the cumulative disease burden, and the probability of treatment discontinuation. Multivariable survival and generalized linear models were used, together with the principal component analysis to reduce model dimensionality and prevent overparameterization. Accuracy of the individual prediction was tested and its internal validity was evaluated in a separate, non-overlapping cohort. External validity was evaluated in a geographically distinct cohort, the Swedish Multiple Sclerosis Registry. In the training cohort (n = 8513), the most prominent modifiers of treatment response comprised age, disease duration, disease course, previous relapse activity, disability, predominant relapse phenotype and previous therapy. Importantly, the magnitude and direction of the associations varied among therapies and disease outcomes. Higher probability of disability progression during treatment with injectable therapies was predominantly associated with a greater disability at treatment start and the previous therapy. For fingolimod, natalizumab or mitoxantrone, it was mainly associated with lower pretreatment relapse activity. The probability of disability regression was predominantly associated with pre-baseline disability, therapy and relapse activity. Relapse incidence was associated with pretreatment relapse activity, age and relapsing disease course, with the strength of these associations varying among therapies. Accuracy and internal validity (n = 1196) of the resulting predictive models was high (>80%) for relapse incidence during the first year and for disability outcomes, moderate for relapse incidence in Years 2-4 and for the change in the cumulative disease burden, and low for conversion to secondary progressive disease and treatment discontinuation. External validation showed similar results, demonstrating high external validity for disability and relapse outcomes, moderate external validity for cumulative disease burden and low external validity for conversion to secondary progressive disease and treatment discontinuation. We conclude that demographic, clinical and paraclinical information helps predict individual response to disease-modifying therapies at the time of their commencement.

Highly active immunomodulatory therapy ameliorates accumulation of disability in moderately advanced and advanced multiple sclerosis.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate variability and predictability of disability trajectories in moderately advanced and advanced multiple sclerosis (MS), and their modifiability with immunomodulatory therapy. METHODS: The epochs between Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) steps 3-6, 4-6 and 6-6.5 were analysed. Patients with relapse-onset MS and having reached 6-month confirmed baseline EDSS step (3/4/6) were identified in MSBase, a global observational MS cohort study. We used multivariable survival models to examine the impact of disease-modifying therapy, clinical and demographic factors on progression to the outcome EDSS step (6/6.5). Sensitivity analyses with varying outcome definitions and inclusion criteria were conducted. RESULTS: For the EDSS 3-6, 4-6 and 6-6.5 epochs, 1560, 1504 and 1231 patients were identified, respectively. Disability trajectories showed large coefficients of variance prebaseline (0.92-1.11) and postbaseline (2.15-2.50), with no significant correlations. The probability of reaching the outcome step was not associated with prebaseline variables, but was increased by higher relapse rates during each epoch (HRs 1.58-3.07; p<0.001). A greater proportion of each epoch treated with higher efficacy therapies was associated with lower risk of reaching the outcome disability step (HRs 0.72-0.91 per 25%; p≤0.02). 3 sensitivity analyses confirmed these results. CONCLUSIONS: Disease progression during moderately advanced and advanced MS is highly variable and amnesic to prior disease activity. Lower relapse rates and greater time on higher efficacy immunomodulatory therapy after reaching EDSS steps 3, 4 and 6 are associated with a decreased risk of accumulating further disability. Highly effective immunomodulatory therapy ameliorates accumulation of disability in moderately advanced and advanced relapse-onset MS.

Quantifying risk of early relapse in patients with first demyelinating events: Prediction in clinical practice.

BACKGROUND: Characteristics at clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) examination assist in identification of patient at highest risk of early second attack and could benefit the most from early disease-modifying drugs (DMDs). OBJECTIVE: To examine determinants of second attack and validate a prognostic nomogram for individualised risk assessment of clinical conversion. METHODS: Patients with CIS were prospectively followed up in the MSBase Incident Study. Predictors of clinical conversion were analysed using Cox proportional hazards regression. Prognostic nomograms were derived to calculate conversion probability and validated using concordance indices. RESULTS: A total of 3296 patients from 50 clinics in 22 countries were followed up for a median (inter-quartile range (IQR)) of 1.92 years (0.90, 3.71). In all, 1953 (59.3%) patients recorded a second attack. Higher Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) at baseline, first symptom location, oligoclonal bands and various brain and spinal magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) metrics were all predictors of conversion. Conversely, older age and DMD exposure post-CIS were associated with reduced rates. Prognostic nomograms demonstrated high concordance between estimated and observed conversion probabilities. CONCLUSION: This multinational study shows that age at CIS onset, DMD exposure, EDSS, multiple brain and spinal MRI criteria and oligoclonal bands are associated with shorter time to relapse. Nomogram assessment may be useful in clinical practice for estimating future clinical conversion.