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BACKGROUND: Proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 (PCSK9), a factor accelerating the degradation of LDL receptors, was associated with a gender-dependent risk for cardiovascular (CV) events in the general population and with all-cause and CV mortality in two relatively small studies in black Africans and South Korean haemodialysis patients. The effect modification by gender was untested in these studies. METHODS: The study enrolled 1188 dialysis patients from the Prospective Registry of The Working Group of Epidemiology of Dialysis Region Calabria (PROGREDIRE) cohort. PCSK9 was measured by colorimetric enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. The primary outcomes were all-cause and CV mortality. Statistical analysis included Cox regression analysis and effect modification analysis. RESULTS: During a median 2.9-year follow-up, out of 494 deaths, 278 were CV-related. In unadjusted analyses, PCSK9 levels correlated with increased all-cause (HRfor1ln unit increase: 1.23, 95% CI 1.06-1.43, p =.008) and CV mortality (HRfor1ln unit increase: 1.26, 95% CI 1.03-1.54, p =.03). After multivariate adjustment, these associations were no longer significant (all-cause mortality, HRfor 1 ln unit increase: 1.16, 95% CI .99-1.36, p =.07; CV mortality, HRfor1ln unit increase: 1.18, 95% CI .95-1.46, p =.14). However, in fully adjusted interaction analyses, a doubling in the risk of this outcome in women was registered (Women, HRfor1ln unit increase: 1.88, 95% CI 1.27-2.78, p =.002; Men, HRfor1ln unit increase: 1.07, 95% CI .83-1.38, p =.61; p for effect modification: .02). CONCLUSIONS: PCSK9 levels are unrelated to all-cause mortality in haemodialysis patients but, like in studies of the general population, independently of other risk factors, entail a doubling in the risk of CV events in women in this population.
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Enfermedades Cardiovasculares , Proproteína Convertasa 9 , Diálisis Renal , Humanos , Masculino , Femenino , Proproteína Convertasa 9/sangre , Persona de Mediana Edad , Enfermedades Cardiovasculares/mortalidad , Anciano , Estudios Prospectivos , Fallo Renal Crónico/terapia , Fallo Renal Crónico/mortalidad , Modelos de Riesgos Proporcionales , Causas de Muerte , Factores Sexuales , Factores de RiesgoRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Veno-venous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (V-V ECMO) is a rapidly expanding life-support technique worldwide. The most common indications are severe hypoxemia and/or hypercapnia, unresponsive to conventional treatments, primarily in cases of acute respiratory distress syndrome. Concerning potential contraindications, there is no mention of microbiological history, especially related to multi-drug resistant (MDR) bacteria isolated before V-V ECMO placement. Our study aims to investigate: (i) the prevalence and incidence of MDR Gram-negative (GN) bacteria in a cohort of V-V ECMOs; (ii) the risk of 1-year mortality, especially in the case of predetected MDR GN bacteria; and (iii) the impact of annual hospital V-V ECMO volume on the probability of acquiring MDR GN bacteria. METHODS: All consecutive adults admitted to the Intensive Care Units of 5 Italian university-affiliated hospitals and requiring V-V ECMO were screened. Exclusion criteria were age < 18 years, pregnancy, veno-arterial or mixed ECMO-configuration, incomplete records, survival < 24 h after V-V ECMO. A standard protocol of microbiological surveillance was applied and MDR profiles were identified using in vitro susceptibility tests. Cox-proportional hazards models were applied for investigating mortality. RESULTS: Two hundred and seventy-nine V-V ECMO patients (72% male) were enrolled. The overall MDR GN bacteria percentage was 50%: 21% (n.59) detected before and 29% (n.80) after V-V ECMO placement. The overall 1-year mortality was 42%, with a higher risk observed in predetected patients (aHR 2.14 [1.33-3.47], p value 0.002), while not in 'V-V ECMO-acquired MDR GN bacteria' group (aHR 1.51 [0.94-2.42], p value 0.090), as compared to 'non-MDR GN bacteria' group (reference). Same findings were found considering only infections. A larger annual hospital V-V ECMO volume was associated with a lower probability of acquiring MDR GN bacteria during V-V ECMO course (aOR 0.91 [0.86-0.97], p value 0.002). CONCLUSIONS: 21% of MDR GN bacteria were detected before; while 29% after V-V ECMO connection. A history of MDR GN bacteria, isolated before V-V ECMO, was an independent risk factor for mortality. The annual hospital V-V ECMO volume affected the probability of acquiring MDR GN bacteria. Trial Registration ClinicalTrial.gov Registration Number NCTNCT06199141, date 12.26.2023.
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Farmacorresistencia Bacteriana Múltiple , Oxigenación por Membrana Extracorpórea , Bacterias Gramnegativas , Humanos , Oxigenación por Membrana Extracorpórea/métodos , Oxigenación por Membrana Extracorpórea/estadística & datos numéricos , Femenino , Masculino , Estudios Retrospectivos , Persona de Mediana Edad , Adulto , Bacterias Gramnegativas/efectos de los fármacos , Italia/epidemiología , Infecciones por Bacterias Gramnegativas/tratamiento farmacológico , Infecciones por Bacterias Gramnegativas/mortalidad , AncianoRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Biomarkers of chronic kidney disease-mineral and bone disorder (CKD-MBD) have been implicated in CKD progression in follow-up studies focusing on single measurements of individual biomarkers made at baseline only. The simultaneous relationship between the time trend of these biomarkers over the course of CKD and renal outcomes has never been tested. METHODS: We applied the joint model (JM) to investigate the longitudinal relationship between repeated measurements of CKD-MBD biomarkers and a combined renal endpoint (estimated glomerular filtration rate reduction >30%, dialysis or transplantation) in 729 stage 2-5 CKD patients over a 36-month follow-up. RESULTS: In the survival submodel of the JM, the longitudinal series of parathyroid hormone (PTH) values was directly and independently related to the risk of renal events [hazard ratio (HR) (1 ln increase in parathyroid hormone (PTH) 2.0 (range 1.5-2.8), P < .001)] and this was also true for repeated measurements of serum phosphate [HR (1 mg/dl) 1.3924 (range 1.1459-1.6918), P = .001], serum calcium [HR (1 mg/dl) 0.7487 (range 0.5843-0.9593), P = .022], baseline fibroblast growth factor 23 [HR (1 pg/ml) 1.001 (range 1.00-1.002), P = .045] and 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D [HR (1 pg/ml) 0.9796 (range 0.9652-0.9942), P = .006]. CONCLUSION: Repeated measurements of serum PTH, calcium and phosphate as well as baseline FGF23 and 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D are independently related with the progression to kidney failure in a cohort of stage 2-5 CKD patients. This longitudinal study generates the hypothesis that interventions at multiple levels on MBD biomarkers can mitigate renal function loss in this population.
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Trastorno Mineral y Óseo Asociado a la Enfermedad Renal Crónica , Insuficiencia Renal Crónica , Humanos , Trastorno Mineral y Óseo Asociado a la Enfermedad Renal Crónica/diagnóstico , Trastorno Mineral y Óseo Asociado a la Enfermedad Renal Crónica/etiología , Calcio , Estudios Longitudinales , Diálisis Renal , Hormona Paratiroidea , Biomarcadores , Fosfatos , Insuficiencia Renal Crónica/complicaciones , Factores de Crecimiento de FibroblastosRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: The EXerCise Introduction To Enhance performance (EXCITE) trial (J Am Soc Nephrol 28: 1259-1268, 2017) in dialysis patients showed that a 6-month home walking exercise programme improves physical function and two dimensions of the Kidney Disease Quality of Life Short Form (KDQOLSF-SF™) questionnaire. Whether improvements in physical function achieved by exercise interventions are maintained in the long term has never been tested in the dialysis population. METHODS: In this post-trial study embedded in the EXCITE trial, we tested the response to the 6 min walking test (6MWT) and the 5-time Sit-To-Stand (5STS) tests and the KDQOLSF-SF™ from the 6th month (end of the trial) to the 36th month. RESULTS: Among the 227 patients of the EXCITE trial cohort, 162 underwent at least three out of four testing visits (baseline, 6, 18 and/or 36 months) contemplated by the study protocol and 89 during all four testing visits. In the primary analysis by the linear mixed model, the gain in walking distance achieved in the 6th month in the exercise group [between-arms difference: +36 m, 95% confidence interval (CI): 22-51, P < .001] was maintained at the 18th month (between-arms difference: +37 m, 95% CI: 19-57, P < .001) and reduced to 23 m (95% CI: -4 to 49 meters, P = .10) at the 36th month. Overall, the post-trial difference in walking distance trajectories between the two study arms was highly significant (P = .004). Furthermore, the walking distance changes at the 6th (r = 0.34, P = .018) and 18th month (r = 0.30, P = .043) were directly related to the number of structured exercise sessions completed during the trial (i.e. the first 6 month). No such effect was registered in the response to the 5STS or in quality of life as measured by the KDQOLSF-SF™. CONCLUSIONS: In dialysis patients, the benefits of a 6-month structured walking programme outlast the duration of the intervention and postpone the loss of walking performance which naturally occurs in this population, but does not affect the quality of life (QoL) and the response to the STS test.
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Diálisis Renal , Insuficiencia Renal , Terapia por Ejercicio/métodos , Humanos , Calidad de Vida , CaminataRESUMEN
We have developed an artificial neural network prediction model for end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) in patients with primary immunoglobulin A nephropathy (IgAN) using a retrospective cohort of 948 patients with IgAN. Our tool is based on a two-step procedure of a classifier model that predicts ESKD, and a regression model that predicts development of ESKD over time. The classifier model showed a performance value of 0.82 (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) in patients with a follow-up of five years, which improved to 0.89 at the ten-year follow-up. Both models had a higher recall rate, which indicated the practicality of the tool. The regression model showed a mean absolute error of 1.78 years and a root mean square error of 2.15 years. Testing in an independent cohort of 167patients with IgAN found successful results for 91% of the patients. Comparison of our system with other mathematical models showed the highest discriminant Harrell C index at five- and ten-years follow-up (81% and 86%, respectively), paralleling the lowest Akaike information criterion values (355.01 and 269.56, respectively). Moreover, our system was the best calibrated model indicating that the predicted and observed outcome probabilities did not significantly differ. Finally, the dynamic discrimination indexes of our artificial neural network, expressed as the weighted average of time-dependent areas under the curve calculated at one and two years, were 0.80 and 0.79, respectively. Similar results were observed over a 25-year follow-up period. Thus, our tool identified individuals who were at a high risk of developing ESKD due to IgAN and predicted the time-to-event endpoint. Accurate prediction is an important step toward introduction of a therapeutic strategy for improving clinical outcomes.
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Glomerulonefritis por IGA , Fallo Renal Crónico , Inteligencia Artificial , Estudios de Cohortes , Glomerulonefritis por IGA/diagnóstico , Humanos , Fallo Renal Crónico/diagnóstico , Fallo Renal Crónico/etiología , Estudios RetrospectivosRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Left ventricular hypertrophy is causally implicated in the high risk of death and heart failure (HF) in chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients. Whether the left ventricular mass index (LVMI) adds meaningful predictive power for mortality and de novo HF to simple risk models has not been tested in the CKD population. METHODS: We investigated this problem in 1352 CKD patients enrolled in the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC). LVMI was measured by echocardiography and the risks for death and HF were estimated by the Study of Heart and Renal Protection (SHARP) score, a well-validated risk score in CKD patients. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 7.7 years, 326 patients died and 208 had de novo HF. The LVMI and the SHARP score and a cross-validated model for HF (CRIC model) were all significantly (P < 0.001) related to the risk of death and HF. LVMI showed a discriminatory power for death (Harrell's C index 66%) inferior to that of the SHARP score (71%) and the same was true for the risk of HF both in the test (LVMI 72%, CRIC model 79%) and in the validation cohort (LVMI 71%, CRIC model 74%). LVMI increased very little the discriminatory (2-3%) and the risk reclassification power (3.0-4.8%) by the SHARP score and the CRIC model for HF for the same outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: In CKD, measurement of LVMI solely for the stratification of risk of death and perhaps for the risk of HF does not provide evident prognostic values in this condition.
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Hipertrofia Ventricular Izquierda/patología , Insuficiencia Renal Crónica/complicaciones , Anciano , Estudios de Cohortes , Humanos , Hipertrofia Ventricular Izquierda/etiología , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Pronóstico , Factores de RiesgoRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Sparse studies show that ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (ABPM) is superior to office BP (oBP) measurements to predict target organ damage and cardiovascular (CV) events in kidney transplant recipients (KTRs). We performed a systematic review aimed at determining the potential associations between BP recordings by different methods and renal and CV outcomes in this population. METHODS: Major medical databases were searched for studies enrolling adult KTRs undergoing 24h ABPM compared to office or home BP measurements. Main outcomes were: associations between different BP recordings and renal and CV outcomes. Additionally, any association between the circadian BP pattern (dipping/non-dipping status) and outcomes was assessed. RESULTS: Twenty-two studies (2078 participants) were reviewed. Amongst 12 studies collecting data on renal endpoints, ten studies found that BP assessed by ABPM was a stronger predictor of renal function decline, assessed by serum creatinine (SCr) and/or creatinine clearance (CrCl) or estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), than traditional office measurements. Twelve studies analyzed the relation between different BP recordings and CV target organ damages and reported robust correlations between echocardiographic abnormalities [i.e. left ventricular mass index (LVM/LVMI)] and 24h ABPM, but not with office BPs. Furthermore, 24h ABPM correlated better than oBP with markers of vascular damage, such as carotid intima-media thickness (IMT), diffuse thickening, and endothelial dysfunction. Additionally, abnormal circadian BP pattern (non-dippers and reverse dippers) identified a group of kidney recipients at risk for kidney function loss and CV abnormalities. CONCLUSIONS: In our systematic review, ABPM reflected target organ damage more closely than oBP in KTRs. Furthermore, altered circadian BP profile associated with renal and CV target organ damages.
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OBJECTIVES: To validate the predictive value on time to first treatment (TTFT) of AIPS-E and IPS-E evaluated in an independent cohort of newly diagnosed and non-referred Binet stage A CLL patients enrolled in the O-CLL1-GISL protocol (clinicaltrial.gov identifier: NCT00917540). METHODS: A cohort of 292 newly diagnosed Binet A CLL cases has been enrolled in the study. Patients from several Italian Institutions were prospectively enrolled within 12 months of diagnosis into the O-CLL1-GISL protocol. RESULTS: The majority of patients were male (62%); median age was 60.4 years, 102 cases (34.9%) showed unmutated IGHV genes, 8 cases (2.8) the presence of del(11q)/del(17p), 142 cases (48.6%) the presence of palpable lymph nodes and 146 cases (50%) and ALC > 15 × 109 /l. After a median follow-up of 7.2 years, 130 patients underwent treatment. According to the AIPS-E, 96 patients were classified as low-risk, 128 as intermediate-risk, and 68 as high-risk. These groups showed significant differences in terms of TTFT. The C-statistic was 0.71 (P < .0001) for predicting TTFT. According to IPS-E, 77 patients were classified as low-risk, 135 as intermediate-risk, and 80 as high-risk. These groups showed significant differences in terms of TTFT. The C-statistic was 0.705 (P < .0001) for predicting TTFT. CONCLUSIONS: Our data confirm an accurate prognostic utility of both AIPS-E and IPS-E at the individual patient level. These data may be useful for a precise stratification of early-stage patients.
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Protocolos de Quimioterapia Combinada Antineoplásica/administración & dosificación , Biomarcadores de Tumor/metabolismo , Leucemia Linfocítica Crónica de Células B , Anciano , Protocolos de Quimioterapia Combinada Antineoplásica/efectos adversos , Femenino , Humanos , Italia , Leucemia Linfocítica Crónica de Células B/diagnóstico , Leucemia Linfocítica Crónica de Células B/tratamiento farmacológico , Leucemia Linfocítica Crónica de Células B/metabolismo , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Pronóstico , Factores de RiesgoRESUMEN
OBJECTIVES: To compare the capacity of ibrutinib (IB) and idelalisib-rituximab (IDELA-R) of prolonging overall survival (OS) as in CLL patients, previously treated with chemotherapy only. METHODS: A real-life cohort of 675 cases has been identified and investigated in the database of the groups participating in the study. RESULTS: At an unadjusted univariate analysis, a significant death risk reduction was observed favoring IB (IDELA-R vs IB HR = 0.5, 95% CI = 0.36-0.71) although with some limitations due to the non-randomized and retrospective nature of the study and to the lower number of patients in the IDELA-R group (112 cases) related to the current prescribing practice. To overcome the potential problem of confounding by indication, we adjusted the association between the type of therapy and mortality for all variables significantly associated with OS at Cox univariate analysis. Furthermore, those variables, differently distributed between the two study groups, were introduced into the multivariate Cox model to improve the effectiveness of the analysis. By introducing all these variables into the multiple Cox regression model, we confirmed the protective effect of IB vs IDELA-R (HR = 0.67, 95% CI = 0.45-0.98, P = .04) independent of potential confounders. CONCLUSIONS: Although our analysis presents some constraints, that is, the unavailability of additional potential confounders, and the retrospective nature of the study, this observation may be of help for the daily clinical practice, particularly in the absence of randomized trials comparing the two schedules.
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Protocolos de Quimioterapia Combinada Antineoplásica/uso terapéutico , Leucemia Linfocítica Crónica de Células B/tratamiento farmacológico , Adenina/administración & dosificación , Adenina/análogos & derivados , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Protocolos de Quimioterapia Combinada Antineoplásica/efectos adversos , Biomarcadores de Tumor , Resistencia a Antineoplásicos , Femenino , Humanos , Inmunoglobulinas/genética , Hibridación Fluorescente in Situ , Leucemia Linfocítica Crónica de Células B/diagnóstico , Leucemia Linfocítica Crónica de Células B/etiología , Leucemia Linfocítica Crónica de Células B/mortalidad , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Mutación , Piperidinas/administración & dosificación , Modelos de Riesgos Proporcionales , Purinas/administración & dosificación , Quinazolinonas/administración & dosificación , Recurrencia , Retratamiento , Rituximab/administración & dosificación , Resultado del TratamientoRESUMEN
Apremilast is an oral selective phosphodiesterase-4 inhibitor developed recently for psoriasis treatment. The aim of this study is to assess the real-life outcomes of use of apremilast in patients with psoriasis in everyday clinical practice. A total of 159 adult patients (90 males) with plaque psoriasis were included in the study. Fifty of the patients (31%) had psoriatic arthritis. All patients started apremilast at the time of enrolment. There was a marked improvement in Psoriasis Area and Severity Index, body surface area and Dermatology Life Quality Index scores across the follow-up period (12 months). The improvements in these scores were also consistent when the patients were stratified according to increasing body mass index. Only 10.6% of the patients discontinued apremilast, because of no response. In conclusion, apremilast is an effective and safe treatment in patients with psoriasis, and its effect is not influenced by body mass index.
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Psoriasis , Talidomida , Adulto , Humanos , Estudios Longitudinales , Masculino , Psoriasis/diagnóstico , Psoriasis/tratamiento farmacológico , Índice de Severidad de la Enfermedad , Talidomida/efectos adversos , Talidomida/análogos & derivadosRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Italy was the second country in the world, after China, to be hit by SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Italy's experience teaches that steps to limit people's movement by imposing 'red zones' need to be put in place early by carefully identifying the cities to be included within these areas of quarantine. The assessment of the relationship between the distance from an established outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 infection with transmission-linked cases and mortality observed in other sites could provide useful information to identify the optimal radius of red zones. METHODS: We investigated the relationship between SARS-CoV-2 cases and the distance of each Italian province from the first outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Italy (the city of Lodi placed in the Lombardia region). In 38 provinces of Lombardia and neighboring regions, we performed a breakpoint analysis to identify the radius of the red zone around Lodi minimizing epidemic spread and mortality in neighboring cities. RESULTS: In all Italian provinces, a non-linear relationship was found between SARS-CoV-2 cases and distance from Lodi. In an analysis including the provinces of Lombardia and neighboring regions, SARS-CoV-2 cases and mortality increased when the distance from Lodi reduced below 92 and 140 km, respectively, and such relationships were amplified by ozone (O3) pollution. CONCLUSIONS: The breakpoint analysis identifies the radius around the outbreak of Lodi minimizing the public health consequences of SARS-CoV-2 in neighboring cities. Such an approach can be useful to identify the red zones in future epidemics due to highly infective pathogens similar to SARS-CoV-2.
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COVID-19/mortalidad , Brotes de Enfermedades/estadística & datos numéricos , Mortalidad/tendencias , Ozono/efectos adversos , Pandemias , SARS-CoV-2 , Adulto , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Número Básico de Reproducción , COVID-19/epidemiología , Femenino , Geografía Médica , Humanos , Italia/epidemiología , Masculino , Salud Pública , Vigilancia en Salud PúblicaRESUMEN
The hazard ratio is a measure of effect which is of paramount importance in etiological research, that is in studies aimed at assessing the strength of the causal relationship between a given treatment/exposure and a certain outcome. Despite the widespread use of the hazard ratio as a measure of effect in scientific reports and articles, the interpretation of this index is often accompanied by some misconceptions which can jeopardize the critical appraisal of randomized clinical trials (RCTs) and observational studies as well. Herein, using a series of examples derived from RCTs in the elderly subjects, we address major pitfalls regarding the interpretation of the hazard ratio in geriatric research.
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Modelos de Riesgos Proporcionales , Anciano , Causalidad , HumanosRESUMEN
A preliminary step when planning a randomized clinical trial (RCT) is the sample size calculation. This is the determination of the optimal number of patients which ensures an adequate power to the study to detect as statistically significant a certain between-arms difference, if any, in the frequency/magnitude of a specific endpoint. The sample size calculation is performed by specific calculators requiring as input variables the expected effect size, the alpha error (α), the beta error (ß) and the allocation ratio, this latter being the ratio between the number of participants allocated to the arms of a RCT. Herein, we provide a series of examples of sample size calculation in the context of superiority RCTs in elderly.
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Tamaño de la Muestra , Anciano , Humanos , Ensayos Clínicos Controlados Aleatorios como AsuntoRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Serum gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT) is a liver enzyme involved in the metabolism of glutathione (GSH), a major antioxidant in humans. GGT is a risk factor for mortality in young and middle-aged individuals but this association has been poorly investigated in the elderly. METHODS: We studied the relationship between GGT and all-cause mortality and tested whether oxidized low-density lipoproteins (oxLDL) modify this association in a cohort of 1038 elderly individuals. RESULTS: During the observation time (median 9 years), 401 individuals died. In a Cox regression model adjusting for potential confounders, GGT was an independent risk factor for all-cause mortality [HR (20U/L increase in serum GGT): 1.11, 95% CI 1.02-1.21, P = 0.02]. Furthermore, increasing levels of oxLDL amplified the risk excess for all-cause mortality associated with GGT (P for the effect modification = 0.003). CONCLUSIONS: In the elderly, serum GGT is an independent risk factor for all-cause mortality and circulating oxLDL amplify the magnitude of this association.
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Lipoproteínas LDL , gamma-Glutamiltransferasa , Anciano , Biomarcadores , Humanos , Persona de Mediana Edad , Modelos de Riesgos Proporcionales , Factores de RiesgoRESUMEN
Prognosis aims at estimating the future course of a given disease in probabilistic terms. As in diagnosis, where clinicians are interested in knowing the accuracy of a new test to identify patients affected by a given disease, in prognosis they wish to accurately identify patients at risk of a future event conditional to one or more prognostic factors. Thus, accurate risk predictions play a primary role in all fields of clinical medicine and in geriatrics as well because they can help clinicians to tailor the intensity of a treatment and to schedule clinical surveillance according to the risk of the concerned patient. Statistical methods able to evaluate the prognostic accuracy of a risk score demand the assessment of discrimination (the Harrell's C-index), calibration (Hosmer-May test) and risk reclassification abilities (IDI, an index of risk reclassification) of the same risk prediction rule whereas, in spite of the popular belief that traditional statistical techniques providing relative measures of effect (such as the hazard ratio derived by Cox regression analysis or the odds ratio obtained by logistic regression analysis) could be per se enough to assess the prognostic value of a biomarker or of a risk score. In this paper we provide a brief theoretical background of each statistical test and a practical approach to the issue. For didactic purposes, in the paper we also provide a dataset (n = 40) to allow the reader to train in the application of the proposed statistical methods.
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Pronóstico , Modelos de Riesgos Proporcionales , Biomarcadores , Humanos , Análisis de Regresión , Medición de Riesgo , Factores de RiesgoRESUMEN
In this study, 158 patients with different degrees of renal function were followed for 7 years to assess the prognostic value of various risk factors, including carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) and biomarkers of renal function, for incident cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes. The investigators found that estimated glomerular filtration rate, albuminuria, and history of cardiovascular disease (CVD) can be used for prognosis of CVD, whereas cIMT adds little to the accuracy of this prediction.
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BACKGROUND: Ferritin, a crucial element for iron homeostasis, is associated with chronic diseases characterized by subclinical inflammation such as essential arterial hypertension and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), showing a prognostic value in different clinical settings. We investigated whether ferritin is associated with arterial stiffness (AS), an early indicator of atherosclerosis, and if it could act as effect modifier on the relationship between inflammation and AS in hypertensive patients with different glucose tolerance. METHODS: We enrolled 462 newly diagnosed untreated hypertensive (HT) patients. All subjects underwent an oral glucose tolerance test. Insulin sensitivity was assessed by MATSUDA index and ferritin levels were estimated by immunoradiometric assay. AS was defined by carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (PWV). RESULTS: Out of 462 patients, 271 showed normal glucose tolerance (HT/NGT), 146 impaired glucose tolerance (HT/IGT) and 45 were diabetic (HT/T2DM). Iron levels significantly decreased and transferrin and ferritin significantly increased from the first to the third group. PWV values were significantly higher in HT/IGT and HT/T2DM patients. PWV was related directly with ferritin, high sensitivity C reactive protein (hs-CRP), transferrin, and inversely with MATSUDA index. Ferritin resulted the strongest determinant of PWV explaining a 14.9% of its variation; moreover it was a strong modifier of the relationship between hs-CRP and PWV. The estimated augmentation in PWV portended by a fixed increase in hs-CRP, was higher across increasing values of ferritin. CONCLUSION: Ferritin represents an independent risk factor of arterial stiffness in our study population and a strong effect modifier on the relationship between inflammation and PWV. However, further studies are needed to fully elucidate the potential role of this biomarker in human atherosclerosis.
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Glucemia/metabolismo , Proteína C-Reactiva/análisis , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2/sangre , Ferritinas/sangre , Intolerancia a la Glucosa/sangre , Hipertensión/sangre , Mediadores de Inflamación/sangre , Inflamación/sangre , Rigidez Vascular , Adulto , Biomarcadores/sangre , Velocidad de la Onda del Pulso Carotídeo-Femoral , Estudios Transversales , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2/diagnóstico , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2/fisiopatología , Femenino , Intolerancia a la Glucosa/diagnóstico , Intolerancia a la Glucosa/fisiopatología , Prueba de Tolerancia a la Glucosa , Humanos , Hipertensión/diagnóstico , Hipertensión/fisiopatología , Inflamación/diagnóstico , Inflamación/fisiopatología , Resistencia a la Insulina , Masculino , Persona de Mediana EdadRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: The parathyroid glands are endowed both with receptors responsive to FGF23 and to 1,25 vitamin D. Vitamin D receptor (VDR) activation, besides lowering PTH, also raises serum FGF23. FGF23 has been implicated in parathyroid resistance to VDR activation but the issue has never been investigated in predialysis CKD patients. METHODS: In the Paricalcitol and Endothelial Functio in Chronic Kidney Disease (PENNY) study (NCT01680198), a 12-week randomized trial in stage G3-4 CKD patients (placebo n = 44 and paricalcitol n = 44), we measured PTH and the active form of FGF23 with no missing value across the trial. RESULTS: At baseline, serum FGF23 and PTH were inter-related (r = .54, P < .01). Paricalcitol reduced serum PTH (-75.1 pg/mL, 95% CI: -90.4 to -59.8; P < .001) and increased FGF23 (+107 pg/mL, 95% CI: 44-170 pg/mL, P = .001). Changes in the Ca × P product in response to paricalcitol were closely related to simultaneous FGF23 changes in an analysis adjusted for changes in serum calcium and phosphate (P < .001). Of note, baseline FGF23, appropriately adjusted for baseline PTH, was unrelated with the PTH response to paricalcitol (r = -.06, P = .72). Placebo did not change neither PTH nor FGF23. CONCLUSION: Serum FGF23 and PTH are inter-related and changes in the Ca × P product induced by paricalcitol per se correlate with the FGF23 response to this drug. Independently of serum FGF23, the parathyroid glands of patients with moderate to severe CKD maintain an intact ability to respond to VDR activation.
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Calcio/sangre , Trastorno Mineral y Óseo Asociado a la Enfermedad Renal Crónica/sangre , Ergocalciferoles/uso terapéutico , Factores de Crecimiento de Fibroblastos/sangre , Hormona Paratiroidea/sangre , Fosfatos/sangre , Receptores de Calcitriol/metabolismo , Insuficiencia Renal Crónica/sangre , Anciano , Trastorno Mineral y Óseo Asociado a la Enfermedad Renal Crónica/metabolismo , Femenino , Factor-23 de Crecimiento de Fibroblastos , Tasa de Filtración Glomerular , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Insuficiencia Renal Crónica/tratamiento farmacológicoRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to compare benefits and harms of different antihypertensive drug classes in kidney transplant recipients, as post-transplant hypertension (HTN) associates with increased cardiovascular (CV) morbidity and mortality. METHODS: The Ovid-MEDLINE, PubMed and CENTRAL databases were searched for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) comparing all main antihypertensive agents versus placebo/no treatment, routine treatment. RESULTS: The search identified 71 RCTs. Calcium channel blockers (CCBs) (26 trials) reduced the risk for graft loss {risk ratio [RR] 0.58 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.38-0.89]}, increased glomerular filtration rate (GFR) [mean difference (MD) 3.08 mL/min (95% CI 0.38-5.78)] and reduced blood pressure (BP). Angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEIs) (13 trials) reduced the risk for graft loss [RR 0.62 (95% CI 0.40-0.96)] but decreased renal function and increased the risk for hyperkalaemia. Angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs) (10 trials) did not modify the risk of death, graft loss and non-fatal CV events and increased the risk for hyperkalaemia. When pooling ACEI and ARB data, the risk for graft failure was lower in renin-angiotensin system (RAS) blockade as compared with control treatments. In direct comparison with ACEIs or ARBs (11 trials), CCBs increased GFR [MD 11.07 mL/min (95% CI 6.04-16.09)] and reduced potassium levels but were not more effective in reducing BP. There are few available data on mortality, graft loss and rejection. Very few studies performed comparisons with other active drugs. CONCLUSIONS: CCBs could be the preferred first-step antihypertensive agents in kidney transplant patients, as they improve graft function and reduce graft loss. No definite patient or graft survival benefits were associated with RAS inhibitor use over conventional treatment.
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Antihipertensivos/uso terapéutico , Hipertensión/tratamiento farmacológico , Trasplante de Riñón/efectos adversos , Tasa de Filtración Glomerular , Humanos , Hipertensión/etiología , Hipertensión/patología , Pronóstico , Ensayos Clínicos Controlados Aleatorios como AsuntoRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Adherence to low salt diets and control of hypertension remain unmet clinical needs in chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients. METHODS: We performed a 6-month multicentre randomized trial in non-compliant patients with CKD followed in nephrology clinics testing the effect of self-measurement of urinary chloride (69 patients) as compared with standard care (69 patients) on two primary outcome measures, adherence to a low sodium (Na) diet (<100 mmol/day) as measured by 24-h urine Na (UNa) excretion and 24-h ambulatory blood pressure (ABPM) monitoring. RESULTS: In the whole sample (N = 138), baseline UNa and 24-h ABPM were143 ± 64 mmol/24 h and 131 ± 18/72 ± 10 mmHg, respectively, and did not differ between the two study arms. Patients in the active arm of the trial used >80% of the chloride strips provided to them at the baseline visit and at follow-up visits. At the third month, UNa was 35 mmol/24 h (95% CI 10.8-58.8 mmol/24 h; P = 0.005) lower in the active arm than the control arm, whereas at 6 months the between-arms difference in UNa decreased and was no longer significant [23 mmol/24 h (95% CI -5.6-50.7); P = 0.11]. The 24-h ABPM changes as well as daytime and night-time BP changes at 3 and 6 months were similar in the two study arms (Month 3, P = 0.69-0.99; Month 6, P = 0.73-0.91). Office BP, the use of antihypertensive drugs, estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate (eGFR) and proteinuria remained unchanged across the trial. CONCLUSIONS: The application of self-measurement of urinary chloride to guide adherence to a low salt diet had a modest effect on 24-h UNa and no significant effect on 24-h ABPM.