Early prediction of severe acute pancreatitis using machine learning.

BACKGROUND: Acute pancreatitis (AP) is one of the most common causes of gastrointestinal-related hospitalizations in the United States. Severe AP (SAP) is associated with a mortality rate of nearly 30% and is distinguished from milder forms of AP. Risk stratification to identify SAP cases needing inpatient treatment is an important aspect of AP diagnosis. METHODS: We developed machine learning algorithms to predict which patients presenting with AP would require treatment for SAP. Three models were developed using logistic regression, neural networks, and XGBoost. Models were assessed in terms of area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) and compared to the Harmless Acute Pancreatitis Score (HAPS) and Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP) scores for AP risk stratification. RESULTS: 61,894 patients were used to train and test the machine learning models. With an AUROC value of 0.921, the model developed using XGBoost outperformed the logistic regression and neural network-based models. The XGBoost model also achieved a higher AUROC than both HAPS and BISAP for identifying patients who would be diagnosed with SAP. CONCLUSIONS: Machine learning may be able to improve the accuracy of AP risk stratification methods and allow for more timely treatment and initiation of interventions.

Validation of a machine learning algorithm for early severe sepsis prediction: a retrospective study predicting severe sepsis up to 48 h in advance using a diverse dataset from 461 US hospitals.

BACKGROUND: Severe sepsis and septic shock are among the leading causes of death in the United States and sepsis remains one of the most expensive conditions to diagnose and treat. Accurate early diagnosis and treatment can reduce the risk of adverse patient outcomes, but the efficacy of traditional rule-based screening methods is limited. The purpose of this study was to develop and validate a machine learning algorithm (MLA) for severe sepsis prediction up to 48 h before onset using a diverse patient dataset. METHODS: Retrospective analysis was performed on datasets composed of de-identified electronic health records collected between 2001 and 2017, including 510,497 inpatient and emergency encounters from 461 health centers collected between 2001 and 2015, and 20,647 inpatient and emergency encounters collected in 2017 from a community hospital. MLA performance was compared to commonly used disease severity scoring systems and was evaluated at 0, 4, 6, 12, 24, and 48 h prior to severe sepsis onset. RESULTS: 270,438 patients were included in analysis. At time of onset, the MLA demonstrated an AUROC of 0.931 (95% CI 0.914, 0.948) and a diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) of 53.105 on a testing dataset, exceeding MEWS (0.725, P < .001; DOR 4.358), SOFA (0.716; P < .001; DOR 3.720), and SIRS (0.655; P < .001; DOR 3.290). For prediction 48 h prior to onset, the MLA achieved an AUROC of 0.827 (95% CI 0.806, 0.848) on a testing dataset. On an external validation dataset, the MLA achieved an AUROC of 0.948 (95% CI 0.942, 0.954) at the time of onset, and 0.752 at 48 h prior to onset. CONCLUSIONS: The MLA accurately predicts severe sepsis onset up to 48 h in advance using only readily available vital signs extracted from the existing patient electronic health records. Relevant implications for clinical practice include improved patient outcomes from early severe sepsis detection and treatment.

Energy landscapes for machine learning.

Machine learning techniques are being increasingly used as flexible non-linear fitting and prediction tools in the physical sciences. Fitting functions that exhibit multiple solutions as local minima can be analysed in terms of the corresponding machine learning landscape. Methods to explore and visualise molecular potential energy landscapes can be applied to these machine learning landscapes to gain new insight into the solution space involved in training and the nature of the corresponding predictions. In particular, we can define quantities analogous to molecular structure, thermodynamics, and kinetics, and relate these emergent properties to the structure of the underlying landscape. This Perspective aims to describe these analogies with examples from recent applications, and suggest avenues for new interdisciplinary research.

Energy landscapes for a machine learning application to series data.

Methods developed to explore and characterise potential energy landscapes are applied to the corresponding landscapes obtained from optimisation of a cost function in machine learning. We consider neural network predictions for the outcome of local geometry optimisation in a triatomic cluster, where four distinct local minima exist. The accuracy of the predictions is compared for fits using data from single and multiple points in the series of atomic configurations resulting from local geometry optimisation and for alternative neural networks. The machine learning solution landscapes are visualised using disconnectivity graphs, and signatures in the effective heat capacity are analysed in terms of distributions of local minima and their properties.

Machine Learning Approach with Harmonized Multinational Datasets for Enhanced Prediction of Hypothyroidism in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes.

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is a global health concern with increasing prevalence. Comorbid hypothyroidism (HT) exacerbates kidney, cardiac, neurological and other complications of T2D; these risks can be mitigated pharmacologically upon detecting HT. The current HT standard of care (SOC) screening in T2D is infrequent, delaying HT diagnosis and treatment. We present a first-to-date machine learning algorithm (MLA) clinical decision tool to classify patients as low vs. high risk for developing HT comorbid with T2D; the MLA was developed using readily available patient data from harmonized multinational datasets. The MLA was trained on data from NIH All of US (AoU) and UK Biobank (UKBB) (Combined dataset) and achieved a high negative predictive value (NPV) of 0.989 and an AUROC of 0.762 in the Combined dataset, exceeding AUROCs for the models trained on AoU or UKBB alone (0.666 and 0.622, respectively), indicating that increasing dataset diversity for MLA training improves performance. This high-NPV automated tool can supplement SOC screening and rule out T2D patients with low HT risk, allowing for the prioritization of lab-based testing for at-risk patients. Conversely, an MLA output that designates a patient to be at risk of developing HT allows for tailored clinical management and thereby promotes improved patient outcomes.

OpenMedLM: prompt engineering can out-perform fine-tuning in medical question-answering with open-source large language models.

LLMs can accomplish specialized medical knowledge tasks, however, equitable access is hindered by the extensive fine-tuning, specialized medical data requirement, and limited access to proprietary models. Open-source (OS) medical LLMs show performance improvements and provide the transparency and compliance required in healthcare. We present OpenMedLM, a prompting platform delivering state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance for OS LLMs on medical benchmarks. We evaluated OS foundation LLMs (7B-70B) on medical benchmarks (MedQA, MedMCQA, PubMedQA, MMLU medical-subset) and selected Yi34B for developing OpenMedLM. Prompting strategies included zero-shot, few-shot, chain-of-thought, and ensemble/self-consistency voting. OpenMedLM delivered OS SOTA results on three medical LLM benchmarks, surpassing previous best-performing OS models that leveraged costly and extensive fine-tuning. OpenMedLM displays the first results to date demonstrating the ability of OS foundation models to optimize performance, absent specialized fine-tuning. The model achieved 72.6% accuracy on MedQA, outperforming the previous SOTA by 2.4%, and 81.7% accuracy on MMLU medical-subset, establishing itself as the first OS LLM to surpass 80% accuracy on this benchmark. Our results highlight medical-specific emergent properties in OS LLMs not documented elsewhere to date and validate the ability of OS models to accomplish healthcare tasks, highlighting the benefits of prompt engineering to improve performance of accessible LLMs for medical applications.

Family-Centric Applied Behavior Analysis Promotes Sustained Treatment Utilization and Attainment of Patient Goals.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES:  Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is a neurodevelopmental disorder characterized by social communication difficulties and restricted repetitive behaviors or interests. Applied behavior analysis (ABA) has been shown to significantly improve outcomes for individuals on the autism spectrum. However, challenges regarding access, cost, and provider shortages remain obstacles to treatment delivery. To this end, parents were trained as parent behavior technicians (pBTs), improving access to ABA, and empowering parents to provide ABA treatment in their own homes. We hypothesized that patients diagnosed with severe ASD would achieve the largest gains in overall success rates toward skill acquisition in comparison to patients diagnosed with mild or moderate ASD. Our secondary hypothesis was that patients with comprehensive treatment plans (>25-40 hours/week) would show greater gains in skill acquisition than those with focused treatment plans (less than or equal to 25 hours/week).  Methods: This longitudinal, retrospective chart review evaluated data from 243 patients aged two to 18 years who received at least three months of ABA within our pBT treatment delivery model. Patients were stratified by utilization of prescribed ABA treatment, age, ASD severity (per the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fifth Edition), and treatment plan type (comprehensive vs. focused). Patient outcomes were assessed by examining success rates in acquiring skills, both overall and in specific focus areas (communication, emotional regulation, executive functioning, and social skills). RESULTS: Patients receiving treatment within the pBT model demonstrated significant progress in skill acquisition both overall and within specific focus areas, regardless of cohort stratification. Patients with severe ASD showed greater overall skill acquisition gains than those with mild or moderate ASD. In addition, patients with comprehensive treatment plans showed significantly greater gains than those with focused treatment plans. CONCLUSION: The pBT model achieved both sustained levels of high treatment utilization and progress toward patient goals. Patients showed significant gains in success rates of skill acquisition both overall and in specific focus areas, regardless of their level of treatment utilization. This study reveals that our pBT model of ABA treatment delivery leads to consistent improvements in communication, emotional regulation, executive functioning, and social skills across patients on the autism spectrum, particularly for those with more severe symptoms and those following comprehensive treatment plans.

Family-Centric Applied Behavior Analysis Facilitates Improved Treatment Utilization and Outcomes.

Background/Objective: Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is a neurodevelopmental condition characterized by lifelong impacts on functional social and daily living skills, and restricted, repetitive behaviors (RRBs). Applied behavior analysis (ABA), the gold-standard treatment for ASD, has been extensively validated. ABA access is hindered by limited availability of qualified professionals and logistical and financial barriers. Scientifically validated, parent-led ABA can fill the accessibility gap by overcoming treatment barriers. This retrospective cohort study examines how our ABA treatment model, utilizing parent behavior technicians (pBTs) to deliver ABA, impacts adaptive behaviors and interfering behaviors (IBs) in a cohort of children on the autism spectrum with varying ASD severity levels, and with or without clinically significant IBs. Methods: Clinical outcomes of 36 patients ages 3-15 years were assessed using longitudinal changes in Vineland-3 after 3+ months of pBT-delivered ABA treatment. Results: Within the pBT model, our patients demonstrated clinically significant improvements in Vineland-3 Composite, domain, and subdomain scores, and utilization was higher in severe ASD. pBTs utilized more prescribed ABA when children initiated treatment with clinically significant IBs, and these children also showed greater gains in their Composite scores. Study limitations include sample size, inter-rater reliability, potential assessment metric bias and schedule variability, and confounding intrinsic or extrinsic factors. Conclusion: Overall, our pBT model facilitated high treatment utilization and showed robust effectiveness, achieving improved adaptive behaviors and reduced IBs when compared to conventional ABA delivery. The pBT model is a strong contender to fill the widening treatment accessibility gap and represents a powerful tool for addressing systemic problems in ABA treatment delivery.

Clinical Outcomes of a Hybrid Model Approach to Applied Behavioral Analysis Treatment.

Objective This study examines the implementation of a hybrid applied behavioral analysis (ABA) treatment model to determine its impact on autism spectrum disorder (ASD) patient outcomes.  Methods Retrospective data were collected for 25 pediatric patients to measure progress before and after the implementation of a hybrid ABA treatment model under which therapists consistently captured session notes electronically regarding goals and patient progress. ABA treatment was streamlined for consistent delivery, with improved software utilization for tracking scheduling and progress. Eleven goals within three domains (behavioral, social, and communication) were examined.  Results After the implementation of the hybrid model, the goal success rate improved by 9.7% compared to the baseline; 41.8% of goals showed improvement, 38.4% showed a flat trend, and 19.8% showed deterioration. Multiple goals trended upwards in 76% of the patients.  Conclusion This pilot study demonstrated that enhancing the consistency with which ABA treatment is monitored/delivered can improve patient outcomes as seen through improved attainment of goals.

Machine learning determination of applied behavioral analysis treatment plan type.

BACKGROUND: Applied behavioral analysis (ABA) is regarded as the gold standard treatment for autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and has the potential to improve outcomes for patients with ASD. It can be delivered at different intensities, which are classified as comprehensive or focused treatment approaches. Comprehensive ABA targets multiple developmental domains and involves 20-40 h/week of treatment. Focused ABA targets individual behaviors and typically involves 10-20 h/week of treatment. Determining the appropriate treatment intensity involves patient assessment by trained therapists, however, the final determination is highly subjective and lacks a standardized approach. In our study, we examined the ability of a machine learning (ML) prediction model to classify which treatment intensity would be most suited individually for patients with ASD who are undergoing ABA treatment. METHODS: Retrospective data from 359 patients diagnosed with ASD were analyzed and included in the training and testing of an ML model for predicting comprehensive or focused treatment for individuals undergoing ABA treatment. Data inputs included demographics, schooling, behavior, skills, and patient goals. A gradient-boosted tree ensemble method, XGBoost, was used to develop the prediction model, which was then compared against a standard of care comparator encompassing features specified by the Behavior Analyst Certification Board treatment guidelines. Prediction model performance was assessed via area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC), sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV). RESULTS: The prediction model achieved excellent performance for classifying patients in the comprehensive versus focused treatment groups (AUROC: 0.895; 95% CI 0.811-0.962) and outperformed the standard of care comparator (AUROC 0.767; 95% CI 0.629-0.891). The prediction model also achieved sensitivity of 0.789, specificity of 0.808, PPV of 0.6, and NPV of 0.913. Out of 71 patients whose data were employed to test the prediction model, only 14 misclassifications occurred. A majority of misclassifications (n = 10) indicated comprehensive ABA treatment for patients that had focused ABA treatment as the ground truth, therefore still providing a therapeutic benefit. The three most important features contributing to the model's predictions were bathing ability, age, and hours per week of past ABA treatment. CONCLUSION: This research demonstrates that the ML prediction model performs well to classify appropriate ABA treatment plan intensity using readily available patient data. This may aid with standardizing the process for determining appropriate ABA treatments, which can facilitate initiation of the most appropriate treatment intensity for patients with ASD and improve resource allocation.

Machine Learning Approach for Improved Longitudinal Prediction of Progression from Mild Cognitive Impairment to Alzheimer's Disease.

Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) is cognitive decline that can indicate future risk of Alzheimer's disease (AD). We developed and validated a machine learning algorithm (MLA), based on a gradient-boosted tree ensemble method, to analyze phenotypic data for individuals 55-88 years old (n = 493) diagnosed with MCI. Data were analyzed within multiple prediction windows and averaged to predict progression to AD within 24-48 months. The MLA outperformed the mini-mental state examination (MMSE) and three comparison models at all prediction windows on most metrics. Exceptions include sensitivity at 18 months (MLA and MMSE each achieved 0.600); and sensitivity at 30 and 42 months (MMSE marginally better). For all prediction windows, the MLA achieved AUROC ≥ 0.857 and NPV ≥ 0.800. With averaged data for the 24-48-month lookahead timeframe, the MLA outperformed MMSE on all metrics. This study demonstrates that machine learning may provide a more accurate risk assessment than the standard of care. This may facilitate care coordination, decrease healthcare expenditures, and maintain quality of life for patients at risk of progressing from MCI to AD.

Prediction of diabetic kidney disease with machine learning algorithms, upon the initial diagnosis of type 2 diabetes mellitus.

INTRODUCTION: Diabetic kidney disease (DKD) accounts for the majority of increased risk of mortality for patients with diabetes, and eventually manifests in approximately half of those patients diagnosed with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Although increased screening frequency can avoid delayed diagnoses, this is not uniformly implemented. The purpose of this study was to develop and retrospectively validate a machine learning algorithm (MLA) that predicts stages of DKD within 5 years upon diagnosis of T2DM. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Two MLAs were trained to predict stages of DKD severity, and compared with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) risk score to evaluate performance. The models were validated on a hold-out test set as well as an external dataset sourced from separate facilities. RESULTS: The MLAs outperformed the CDC risk score in both the hold-out test and external datasets. Our algorithms achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.75 on the hold-out set for prediction of any-stage DKD and an AUROC of over 0.82 for more severe endpoints, compared with the CDC risk score with an AUROC <0.70 on all test sets and endpoints. CONCLUSION: This retrospective study shows that an MLA can provide timely predictions of DKD among patients with recently diagnosed T2DM.

Predicting pulmonary embolism among hospitalized patients with machine learning algorithms.

Background: Pulmonary embolisms (PE) are life-threatening medical events, and early identification of patients experiencing a PE is essential to optimizing patient outcomes. Current tools for risk stratification of PE patients are limited and unable to predict PE events before their occurrence. Objective: We developed a machine learning algorithm (MLA) designed to identify patients at risk of PE before the clinical detection of onset in an inpatient population. Materials and Methods: Three machine learning (ML) models were developed on electronic health record data from 63,798 medical and surgical inpatients in a large US medical center. These models included logistic regression, neural network, and gradient boosted tree (XGBoost) models. All models used only routinely collected demographic, clinical, and laboratory information as inputs. All were evaluated for their ability to predict PE at the first time patient vital signs and lab measures required for the MLA to run were available. Performance was assessed with regard to the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC), sensitivity, and specificity. Results: The model trained using XGBoost demonstrated the strongest performance for predicting PEs. The XGBoost model obtained an AUROC of 0.85, a sensitivity of 81%, and a specificity of 70%. The neural network and logistic regression models obtained AUROCs of 0.74 and 0.67, sensitivity of 81% and 81%, and specificity of 44% and 35%, respectively. Conclusions: This algorithm may improve patient outcomes through earlier recognition and prediction of PE, enabling earlier diagnosis and treatment of PE.

Early prediction of central line associated bloodstream infection using machine learning.

BACKGROUND: Central line-associated bloodstream infections (CLABSIs) are associated with significant morbidity, mortality, and increased healthcare costs. Despite the high prevalence of CLABSIs in the U.S., there are currently no tools to stratify a patient's risk of developing an infection as the result of central line placement. To this end, we have developed and validated a machine learning algorithm (MLA) that can predict a patient's likelihood of developing CLABSI using only electronic health record data in order to provide clinical decision support. METHODS: We created three machine learning models to retrospectively analyze electronic health record data from 27,619 patient encounters. The models were trained and validated using an 80:20 split for the train and test data. Patients designated as having a central line procedure based on International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems 10 codes were included. RESULTS: XGBoost was the highest performing MLA out of the three models, obtaining an AUROC of 0.762 for CLABSI risk prediction at 48 hours after the recorded time for central line placement. CONCLUSIONS: Our results demonstrate that MLAs may be effective clinical decision support tools for assessment of CLABSI risk and should be explored further for this purpose.

A comparative analysis of machine learning approaches to predict C. difficile infection in hospitalized patients.

BACKGROUND: Interventions to better prevent or manage Clostridioides difficile infection (CDI) may significantly reduce morbidity, mortality, and healthcare spending. METHODS: We present a retrospective study using electronic health record data from over 700 United States hospitals. A subset of hospitals was used to develop machine learning algorithms (MLAs); the remaining hospitals served as an external test set. Three MLAs were evaluated: gradient-boosted decision trees (XGBoost), Deep Long Short Term Memory neural network, and one-dimensional convolutional neural network. MLA performance was evaluated with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), sensitivity, specificity, diagnostic odds ratios and likelihood ratios. RESULTS: The development dataset contained 13,664,840 inpatient encounters with 80,046 CDI encounters; the external dataset contained 1,149,088 inpatient encounters with 7,107 CDI encounters. The highest AUROCs were achieved for XGB, Deep Long Short Term Memory neural network, and one-dimensional convolutional neural network via abstaining from use of specialized training techniques, resampling in isolation, and resampling and output bias in combination, respectively. XGBoost achieved the highest AUROC. CONCLUSIONS: MLAs can predict future CDI in hospitalized patients using just 6 hours of data. In clinical practice, a machine-learning based tool may support prophylactic measures, earlier diagnosis, and more timely implementation of infection control measures.

Machine learning to predict progression of non-alcoholic fatty liver to non-alcoholic steatohepatitis or fibrosis.

Background: Non-alcoholic fatty liver (NAFL) can progress to the severe subtype non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and/or fibrosis, which are associated with increased morbidity, mortality, and healthcare costs. Current machine learning studies detect NASH; however, this study is unique in predicting the progression of NAFL patients to NASH or fibrosis. Aim: To utilize clinical information from NAFL-diagnosed patients to predict the likelihood of progression to NASH or fibrosis. Methods: Data were collected from electronic health records of patients receiving a first-time NAFL diagnosis. A gradient boosted machine learning algorithm (XGBoost) as well as logistic regression (LR) and multi-layer perceptron (MLP) models were developed. A five-fold cross-validation grid search was utilized for hyperparameter optimization of variables, including maximum tree depth, learning rate, and number of estimators. Predictions of patients likely to progress to NASH or fibrosis within 4 years of initial NAFL diagnosis were made using demographic features, vital signs, and laboratory measurements. Results: The XGBoost algorithm achieved area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) values of 0.79 for prediction of progression to NASH and 0.87 for fibrosis on both hold-out and external validation test sets. The XGBoost algorithm outperformed the LR and MLP models for both NASH and fibrosis prediction on all metrics. Conclusion: It is possible to accurately identify newly diagnosed NAFL patients at high risk of progression to NASH or fibrosis. Early identification of these patients may allow for increased clinical monitoring, more aggressive preventative measures to slow the progression of NAFL and fibrosis, and efficient clinical trial enrollment.

Predicting Falls in Long-term Care Facilities: Machine Learning Study.

BACKGROUND: Short-term fall prediction models that use electronic health records (EHRs) may enable the implementation of dynamic care practices that specifically address changes in individualized fall risk within senior care facilities. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study is to implement machine learning (ML) algorithms that use EHR data to predict a 3-month fall risk in residents from a variety of senior care facilities providing different levels of care. METHODS: This retrospective study obtained EHR data (2007-2021) from Juniper Communities' proprietary database of 2785 individuals primarily residing in skilled nursing facilities, independent living facilities, and assisted living facilities across the United States. We assessed the performance of 3 ML-based fall prediction models and the Juniper Communities' fall risk assessment. Additional analyses were conducted to examine how changes in the input features, training data sets, and prediction windows affected the performance of these models. RESULTS: The Extreme Gradient Boosting model exhibited the highest performance, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.846 (95% CI 0.794-0.894), specificity of 0.848, diagnostic odds ratio of 13.40, and sensitivity of 0.706, while achieving the best trade-off in balancing true positive and negative rates. The number of active medications was the most significant feature associated with fall risk, followed by a resident's number of active diseases and several variables associated with vital signs, including diastolic blood pressure and changes in weight and respiratory rates. The combination of vital signs with traditional risk factors as input features achieved higher prediction accuracy than using either group of features alone. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that the Extreme Gradient Boosting technique can use a large number of features from EHR data to make short-term fall predictions with a better performance than that of conventional fall risk assessments and other ML models. The integration of routinely collected EHR data, particularly vital signs, into fall prediction models may generate more accurate fall risk surveillance than models without vital signs. Our data support the use of ML models for dynamic, cost-effective, and automated fall predictions in different types of senior care facilities.

Mortality, disease progression, and disease burden of acute kidney injury in alcohol use disorder subpopulation.

BACKGROUND: The aim of the study was to quantify the relationship between acute kidney injury (AKI) and alcohol use disorder (AUD). METHODS: We used a large academic medical center and the MIMIC-III databases to quantify AKI disease and mortality burden as well as AKI disease progression in the AUD and non-AUD subpopulations. We used the MIMIC-III dataset to compare two different methods of encoding AKI: ICD-9 codes, and the Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes scheme (KDIGO) definition. In addition to the AUD subpopulation, we also present analyses for the hepatorenal syndrome (HRS) and alcohol-related cirrhosis subpopulations identified via ICD-9/ICD-10 coding. RESULTS: In both the ICD-9 and KDIGO encodings of AKI, the AUD subpopulation had a higher incidence of AKI (ICD-9: 43.3% vs. 37.92% AKI in the non-AUD subpopulations; KDIGO: 48.65% vs. 40.53%) in the MIMIC-III dataset. In the academic dataset, the AUD subpopulation also had a higher incidence of AKI than the non-AUD subpopulation (ICD-9/ICD-10: 12.76% vs. 10.71%). The mortality rate of the subpopulation with both AKI and AUD, HRS, or alcohol-related cirrhosis was consistently higher than that of the subpopulation with only AKI in both datasets, including after adjusting for disease severity using two methods of severity estimation in the MIMIC-III dataset. Disease progression rates were similar for AUD and non-AUD subpopulations. CONCLUSIONS: Our work shows that the AUD patient subpopulation had a higher number of AKI patients than the non-AUD subpopulation, and that patients with both AKI and AUD, HRS, or alcohol-related cirrhosis had higher rates of mortality than the non-AUD subpopulation with AKI.

Correlation of Population SARS-CoV-2 Cycle Threshold Values to Local Disease Dynamics: Exploratory Observational Study.

BACKGROUND: Despite the limitations in the use of cycle threshold (CT) values for individual patient care, population distributions of CT values may be useful indicators of local outbreaks. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to conduct an exploratory analysis of potential correlations between the population distribution of cycle threshold (CT) values and COVID-19 dynamics, which were operationalized as percent positivity, transmission rate (Rt), and COVID-19 hospitalization count. METHODS: In total, 148,410 specimens collected between September 15, 2020, and January 11, 2021, from the greater El Paso area were processed in the Dascena COVID-19 Laboratory. The daily median CT value, daily Rt, daily count of COVID-19 hospitalizations, daily change in percent positivity, and rolling averages of these features were plotted over time. Two-way scatterplots and linear regression were used to evaluate possible associations between daily median CT values and outbreak measures. Cross-correlation plots were used to determine whether a time delay existed between changes in daily median CT values and measures of community disease dynamics. RESULTS: Daily median CT values negatively correlated with the daily Rt values (P<.001), the daily COVID-19 hospitalization counts (with a 33-day time delay; P<.001), and the daily changes in percent positivity among testing samples (P<.001). Despite visual trends suggesting time delays in the plots for median CT values and outbreak measures, a statistically significant delay was only detected between changes in median CT values and COVID-19 hospitalization counts (P<.001). CONCLUSIONS: This study adds to the literature by analyzing samples collected from an entire geographical area and contextualizing the results with other research investigating population CT values.

Retrospective validation of a machine learning clinical decision support tool for myocardial infarction risk stratification.

Diagnosis and appropriate intervention for myocardial infarction (MI) are time-sensitive but rely on clinical measures that can be progressive and initially inconclusive, underscoring the need for an accurate and early predictor of MI to support diagnostic and clinical management decisions. The objective of this study was to develop a machine learning algorithm (MLA) to predict MI diagnosis based on electronic health record data (EHR) readily available during Emergency Department assessment. An MLA was developed using retrospective patient data. The MLA used patient data as they became available in the first 3 h of care to predict MI diagnosis (defined by International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision code) at any time during the encounter. The MLA obtained an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.87, sensitivity of 87% and specificity of 70%, outperforming the comparator scoring systems TIMI and GRACE on all metrics. An MLA can synthesize complex EHR data to serve as a clinically relevant risk stratification tool for MI.