A comprehensive quantification of global nitrous oxide sources and sinks.

Nitrous oxide (N2O), like carbon dioxide, is a long-lived greenhouse gas that accumulates in the atmosphere. Over the past 150 years, increasing atmospheric N2O concentrations have contributed to stratospheric ozone depletion1 and climate change2, with the current rate of increase estimated at 2 per cent per decade. Existing national inventories do not provide a full picture of N2O emissions, owing to their omission of natural sources and limitations in methodology for attributing anthropogenic sources. Here we present a global N2O inventory that incorporates both natural and anthropogenic sources and accounts for the interaction between nitrogen additions and the biochemical processes that control N2O emissions. We use bottom-up (inventory, statistical extrapolation of flux measurements, process-based land and ocean modelling) and top-down (atmospheric inversion) approaches to provide a comprehensive quantification of global N2O sources and sinks resulting from 21 natural and human sectors between 1980 and 2016. Global N2O emissions were 17.0 (minimum-maximum estimates: 12.2-23.5) teragrams of nitrogen per year (bottom-up) and 16.9 (15.9-17.7) teragrams of nitrogen per year (top-down) between 2007 and 2016. Global human-induced emissions, which are dominated by nitrogen additions to croplands, increased by 30% over the past four decades to 7.3 (4.2-11.4) teragrams of nitrogen per year. This increase was mainly responsible for the growth in the atmospheric burden. Our findings point to growing N2O emissions in emerging economies-particularly Brazil, China and India. Analysis of process-based model estimates reveals an emerging N2O-climate feedback resulting from interactions between nitrogen additions and climate change. The recent growth in N2O emissions exceeds some of the highest projected emission scenarios3,4, underscoring the urgency to mitigate N2O emissions.

Global nitrous oxide emissions from livestock manure during 1890-2020: An IPCC tier 2 inventory.

Nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from livestock manure contribute significantly to the growth of atmospheric N2O, a powerful greenhouse gas and dominant ozone-depleting substance. Here, we estimate global N2O emissions from livestock manure during 1890-2020 using the tier 2 approach of the 2019 Refinement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines. Global N2O emissions from livestock manure increased by ~350% from 451 [368-556] Gg N year-1 in 1890 to 2042 [1677-2514] Gg N year-1 in 2020. These emissions contributed ~30% to the global anthropogenic N2O emissions in the decade 2010-2019. Cattle contributed the most (60%) to the increase, followed by poultry (19%), pigs (15%), and sheep and goats (6%). Regionally, South Asia, Africa, and Latin America dominated the growth in global emissions since the 1990s. Nationally, the largest emissions were found in India (329 Gg N year-1), followed by China (267 Gg N year-1), the United States (163 Gg N year-1), Brazil (129 Gg N year-1) and Pakistan (102 Gg N year-1) in the 2010s. We found a substantial impact of livestock productivity, specifically animal body weight and milk yield, on the emission trends. Furthermore, a large spread existed among different methodologies in estimates of global N2O emission from livestock manure, with our results 20%-25% lower than those based on the 2006 IPCC Guidelines. This study highlights the need for robust time-variant model parameterization and continuous improvement of emissions factors to enhance the precision of emission inventories. Additionally, urgent mitigation is required, as all available inventories indicate a rapid increase in global N2O emissions from livestock manure in recent decades.

Managing nitrogen for sustainable development.

Improvements in nitrogen use efficiency in crop production are critical for addressing the triple challenges of food security, environmental degradation and climate change. Such improvements are conditional not only on technological innovation, but also on socio-economic factors that are at present poorly understood. Here we examine historical patterns of agricultural nitrogen-use efficiency and find a broad range of national approaches to agricultural development and related pollution. We analyse examples of nitrogen use and propose targets, by geographic region and crop type, to meet the 2050 global food demand projected by the Food and Agriculture Organization while also meeting the Sustainable Development Goals pertaining to agriculture recently adopted by the United Nations General Assembly. Furthermore, we discuss socio-economic policies and technological innovations that may help achieve them.

Simultaneous numerical representation of soil microsite production and consumption of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide using probability distribution functions.

Production and consumption of nitrous oxide (N2 O), methane (CH4 ), and carbon dioxide (CO2 ) are affected by complex interactions of temperature, moisture, and substrate supply, which are further complicated by spatial heterogeneity of the soil matrix. This microsite heterogeneity is often invoked to explain non-normal distributions of greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes, also known as hot spots and hot moments. To advance numerical simulation of these belowground processes, we expanded the Dual Arrhenius and Michaelis-Menten model, to apply it consistently for all three GHGs with respect to the biophysical processes of production, consumption, and diffusion within the soil, including the contrasting effects of oxygen (O2 ) as substrate or inhibitor for each process. High-frequency chamber-based measurements of all three GHGs at the Howland Forest (ME, USA) were used to parameterize the model using a multiple constraint approach. The area under a soil chamber is partitioned according to a bivariate log-normal probability distribution function (PDF) of carbon and water content across a range of microsites, which leads to a PDF of heterotrophic respiration and O2 consumption among microsites. Linking microsite consumption of O2 with a diffusion model generates a broad range of microsite concentrations of O2 , which then determines the PDF of microsites that produce or consume CH4 and N2 O, such that a range of microsites occurs with both positive and negative signs for net CH4 and N2 O flux. Results demonstrate that it is numerically feasible for microsites of N2 O reduction and CH4 oxidation to co-occur under a single chamber, thus explaining occasional measurement of simultaneous uptake of both gases. Simultaneous simulation of all three GHGs in a parsimonious modeling framework is challenging, but it increases confidence that agreement between simulations and measurements is based on skillful numerical representation of processes across a heterogeneous environment.

COSORE: A community database for continuous soil respiration and other soil-atmosphere greenhouse gas flux data.

Globally, soils store two to three times as much carbon as currently resides in the atmosphere, and it is critical to understand how soil greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and uptake will respond to ongoing climate change. In particular, the soil-to-atmosphere CO2 flux, commonly though imprecisely termed soil respiration (RS ), is one of the largest carbon fluxes in the Earth system. An increasing number of high-frequency RS measurements (typically, from an automated system with hourly sampling) have been made over the last two decades; an increasing number of methane measurements are being made with such systems as well. Such high frequency data are an invaluable resource for understanding GHG fluxes, but lack a central database or repository. Here we describe the lightweight, open-source COSORE (COntinuous SOil REspiration) database and software, that focuses on automated, continuous and long-term GHG flux datasets, and is intended to serve as a community resource for earth sciences, climate change syntheses and model evaluation. Contributed datasets are mapped to a single, consistent standard, with metadata on contributors, geographic location, measurement conditions and ancillary data. The design emphasizes the importance of reproducibility, scientific transparency and open access to data. While being oriented towards continuously measured RS , the database design accommodates other soil-atmosphere measurements (e.g. ecosystem respiration, chamber-measured net ecosystem exchange, methane fluxes) as well as experimental treatments (heterotrophic only, etc.). We give brief examples of the types of analyses possible using this new community resource and describe its accompanying R software package.

Global soil nitrous oxide emissions since the preindustrial era estimated by an ensemble of terrestrial biosphere models: Magnitude, attribution, and uncertainty.

Our understanding and quantification of global soil nitrous oxide (N2 O) emissions and the underlying processes remain largely uncertain. Here, we assessed the effects of multiple anthropogenic and natural factors, including nitrogen fertilizer (N) application, atmospheric N deposition, manure N application, land cover change, climate change, and rising atmospheric CO2 concentration, on global soil N2 O emissions for the period 1861-2016 using a standard simulation protocol with seven process-based terrestrial biosphere models. Results suggest global soil N2 O emissions have increased from 6.3 ± 1.1 Tg N2 O-N/year in the preindustrial period (the 1860s) to 10.0 ± 2.0 Tg N2 O-N/year in the recent decade (2007-2016). Cropland soil emissions increased from 0.3 Tg N2 O-N/year to 3.3 Tg N2 O-N/year over the same period, accounting for 82% of the total increase. Regionally, China, South Asia, and Southeast Asia underwent rapid increases in cropland N2 O emissions since the 1970s. However, US cropland N2 O emissions had been relatively flat in magnitude since the 1980s, and EU cropland N2 O emissions appear to have decreased by 14%. Soil N2 O emissions from predominantly natural ecosystems accounted for 67% of the global soil emissions in the recent decade but showed only a relatively small increase of 0.7 ± 0.5 Tg N2 O-N/year (11%) since the 1860s. In the recent decade, N fertilizer application, N deposition, manure N application, and climate change contributed 54%, 26%, 15%, and 24%, respectively, to the total increase. Rising atmospheric CO2 concentration reduced soil N2 O emissions by 10% through the enhanced plant N uptake, while land cover change played a minor role. Our estimation here does not account for indirect emissions from soils and the directed emissions from excreta of grazing livestock. To address uncertainties in estimating regional and global soil N2 O emissions, this study recommends several critical strategies for improving the process-based simulations.

The Amazon basin in transition.

Agricultural expansion and climate variability have become important agents of disturbance in the Amazon basin. Recent studies have demonstrated considerable resilience of Amazonian forests to moderate annual drought, but they also show that interactions between deforestation, fire and drought potentially lead to losses of carbon storage and changes in regional precipitation patterns and river discharge. Although the basin-wide impacts of land use and drought may not yet surpass the magnitude of natural variability of hydrologic and biogeochemical cycles, there are some signs of a transition to a disturbance-dominated regime. These signs include changing energy and water cycles in the southern and eastern portions of the Amazon basin.

Abrupt increases in Amazonian tree mortality due to drought-fire interactions.

Interactions between climate and land-use change may drive widespread degradation of Amazonian forests. High-intensity fires associated with extreme weather events could accelerate this degradation by abruptly increasing tree mortality, but this process remains poorly understood. Here we present, to our knowledge, the first field-based evidence of a tipping point in Amazon forests due to altered fire regimes. Based on results of a large-scale, long-term experiment with annual and triennial burn regimes (B1yr and B3yr, respectively) in the Amazon, we found abrupt increases in fire-induced tree mortality (226 and 462%) during a severe drought event, when fuel loads and air temperatures were substantially higher and relative humidity was lower than long-term averages. This threshold mortality response had a cascading effect, causing sharp declines in canopy cover (23 and 31%) and aboveground live biomass (12 and 30%) and favoring widespread invasion by flammable grasses across the forest edge area (80 and 63%), where fires were most intense (e.g., 220 and 820 kW ⋅ m(-1)). During the droughts of 2007 and 2010, regional forest fires burned 12 and 5% of southeastern Amazon forests, respectively, compared with <1% in nondrought years. These results show that a few extreme drought events, coupled with forest fragmentation and anthropogenic ignition sources, are already causing widespread fire-induced tree mortality and forest degradation across southeastern Amazon forests. Future projections of vegetation responses to climate change across drier portions of the Amazon require more than simulation of global climate forcing alone and must also include interactions of extreme weather events, fire, and land-use change.

Climate change impacts of US reactive nitrogen.

Fossil fuel combustion and fertilizer application in the United States have substantially altered the nitrogen cycle, with serious effects on climate change. The climate effects can be short-lived, by impacting the chemistry of the atmosphere, or long-lived, by altering ecosystem greenhouse gas fluxes. Here we develop a coherent framework for assessing the climate change impacts of US reactive nitrogen emissions, including oxides of nitrogen, ammonia, and nitrous oxide (N(2)O). We use the global temperature potential (GTP), calculated at 20 and 100 y, in units of CO(2) equivalents (CO(2)e), as a common metric. The largest cooling effects are due to combustion sources of oxides of nitrogen altering tropospheric ozone and methane concentrations and enhancing carbon sequestration in forests. The combined cooling effects are estimated at -290 to -510 Tg CO(2)e on a GTP(20) basis. However, these effects are largely short-lived. On a GTP(100) basis, combustion contributes just -16 to -95 Tg CO(2)e. Agriculture contributes to warming on both the 20-y and 100-y timescales, primarily through N(2)O emissions from soils. Under current conditions, these warming and cooling effects partially offset each other. However, recent trends show decreasing emissions from combustion sources. To prevent warming from US reactive nitrogen, reductions in agricultural N(2)O emissions are needed. Substantial progress toward this goal is possible using current technology. Without such actions, even greater CO(2) emission reductions will be required to avoid dangerous climate change.

More food, low pollution (mo fo lo Po): a grand challenge for the 21st century.

Synthetic nitrogen fertilizer has been a double-edged sword, greatly improving human nutrition during the 20th century but also posing major human health and environmental challenges for the 21st century. In August 2013, about 160 agronomists, scientists, extension agents, crop advisors, economists, social scientists, farmers, representatives of regulatory agencies and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), and other agricultural experts gathered to discuss the vexing challenge of how to produce more food to nourish a growing population while minimizing pollution to the environment. This collection of 14 papers authored by conference participants provides a much needed analysis of the many technical, economic, and social impediments to improving nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) in crop and animal production systems. These papers demonstrate that the goals of producing more food with low pollution (Mo Fo Lo Po) will not be achieved by technological developments alone but will also require policies that recognize the economic and social factors affecting farmer decision-making. Take-home lessons from this extraordinary interdisciplinary effort include the need (i) to develop partnerships among private and public sectors to demonstrate the most current, economically feasible, best management NUE practices at local and regional scales; (ii) to improve continuing education to private sector retailers and crop advisers; (iii) to tie nutrient management to performance-based indicators on the farm and in the downwind and downstream environment; and (iv) to restore investments in research, education, extension, and human resources that are essential for developing the interdisciplinary knowledge and innovative skills needed to achieve agricultural sustainability goals.

The economic and environmental consequences of implementing nitrogen-efficient technologies and management practices in agriculture.

Technologies and management practices (TMPs) that reduce the application of nitrogen (N) fertilizer while maintaining crop yields can improve N use efficiency (NUE) and are important tools for meeting the dual challenges of increasing food production and reducing N pollution. However, because farmers operate to maximize their profits, incentives to implement TMPs are limited, and TMP implementation will not always reduce N pollution. Therefore, we have developed the NUE Economic and Environmental impact analytical framework (NUE) to examine the economic and environmental consequences of implementing TMPs in agriculture, with a specific focus on farmer profits, N fertilizer consumption, N losses, and cropland demand. Our analytical analyses show that impact of TMPs on farmers' economic decision-making and the environment is affected by how TMPs change the yield ceiling and the N fertilization rate at the ceiling and by how the prices of TMPs, fertilizer, and crops vary. Technologies and management practices that increase the yield ceiling appear to create a greater economic incentive for farmers than TMPs that do not but may result in higher N application rates and excess N losses. Nevertheless, the negative environmental impacts of certain TMPs could be avoided if their price stays within a range determined by TMP yield response, fertilizer price, and crop price. We use a case study on corn production in the midwestern United States to demonstrate how NUE can be applied to farmers' economic decision-making and policy analysis. Our NUE framework provides an important tool for policymakers to understand how combinations of fertilizer, crop, and TMP prices affect the possibility of achieving win-win outcomes for farmers and the environment.

A big-microsite framework for soil carbon modeling.

Soil carbon cycling processes potentially play a large role in biotic feedbacks to climate change, but little agreement exists at present on what the core of numerical soil C cycling models should look like. In contrast, most canopy models of photosynthesis and leaf gas exchange share a common 'Farquhaur-model' core structure. Here, we explore why a similar core model structure for heterotrophic soil respiration remains elusive and how a pathway to that goal might be envisioned. The spatial and temporal variation in soil microsite conditions greatly complicates modeling efforts, but we believe it is possible to develop a tractable number of parameterizable equations that are organized into a coherent, modular, numerical model structure. First, we show parallels in insights gleaned from linking Arrhenius and Michaelis-Menten kinetics for both photosynthesis and soil respiration. Additional equations and layers of complexity are then added to simulate substrate supply. For soils, model modules that simulate carbon stabilization processes will be key to estimating the fraction of soil C that is accessible to enzymes. Potential modules for dynamic photosynthate input, wetting-event inputs, freeze-thaw impacts on substrate diffusion, aggregate turnover, soluble-C sorption, gas transport, methane respiration, and microbial dynamics are described for conceptually and numerically linking our understanding of fast-response processes of soil gas exchange with longer-term dynamics of soil carbon and nitrogen stocks.

Modeling the impact of net primary production dynamics on post-disturbance Amazon savannization.

Amazon tropical forests are being replaced by pasturelands and croplands, but they sometimes revert to regrowth forest when abandoned after a period of agricultural use. Research suggests that this secondary regrowth is limited by climate and nutrient availability and, using a coupled biosphere-atmosphere model, we investigated patterns in the regrowth of the Amazon rainforest after a full deforestation event, considering different types of nutrient stress. We found that, over a 50 year regrowth period, the reduction of precipitation caused by large-scale deforestation was not sufficient to prevent secondary forest regrowth, but this decrease in precipitation combined with nutrient limitation, due to logging and frequent fires, did indeed prevent forest regrowth in central and southern Amazonia, leading to a savannization. These results are concerning, as the northern Mato Grosso region has the highest clearing rate in Amazonia. The low resilience of the forest under nutrient stress indicates that a large scale disturbance could greatly expand the area suitable for cropland, accelerating forest disappearance.

Rate my data: quantifying the value of ecological data for the development of models of the terrestrial carbon cycle.

Primarily driven by concern about rising levels of atmospheric CO2, ecologists and earth system scientists are collecting vast amounts of data related to the carbon cycle. These measurements are generally time consuming and expensive to make, and, unfortunately, we live in an era where research funding is increasingly hard to come by. Thus, important questions are: "Which data streams provide the most valuable information?" and "How much data do we need?" These questions are relevant not only for model developers, who need observational data to improve, constrain, and test their models, but also for experimentalists and those designing ecological observation networks. Here we address these questions using a model-data fusion approach. We constrain a process-oriented, forest ecosystem C cycle model with 17 different data streams from the Harvard Forest (Massachusetts, USA). We iteratively rank each data source according to its contribution to reducing model uncertainty. Results show the importance of some measurements commonly unavailable to carbon-cycle modelers, such as estimates of turnover times from different carbon pools. Surprisingly, many data sources are relatively redundant in the presence of others and do not lead to a significant improvement in model performance. A few select data sources lead to the largest reduction in parameter-based model uncertainty. Projections of future carbon cycling were poorly constrained when only hourly net-ecosystem-exchange measurements were used to inform the model. They were well constrained, however, with only 5 of the 17 data streams, even though many individual parameters are not constrained. The approach taken here should stimulate further cooperation between modelers and measurement teams and may be useful in the context of setting research priorities and allocating research funds.

Interactions between repeated fire, nutrients, and insect herbivores affect the recovery of diversity in the southern Amazon.

Surface fires burn extensive areas of tropical forests each year, altering resource availability, biotic interactions, and, ultimately, plant diversity. In transitional forest between the Brazilian cerrado (savanna) and high stature Amazon forest, we took advantage of a long-term fire experiment to establish a factorial study of the interactions between fire, nutrient availability, and herbivory on early plant regeneration. Overall, five annual burns reduced the number and diversity of regenerating stems. Community composition changed substantially after repeated fires, and species common in the cerrado became more abundant. The number of recruits and their diversity were reduced in the burned area, but burned plots closed to herbivores with nitrogen additions had a 14 % increase in recruitment. Diversity of recruits also increased up to 50 % in burned plots when nitrogen was added. Phosphorus additions were related to an increase in species evenness in burned plots open to herbivores. Herbivory reduced seedling survival overall and increased diversity in burned plots when nutrients were added. This last result supports our hypothesis that positive relationships between herbivore presence and diversity would be strongest in treatments that favor herbivory--in this case herbivory was higher in burned plots which were initially lower in diversity. Regenerating seedlings in less diverse plots were likely more apparent to herbivores, enabling increased herbivory and a stronger signal of negative density dependence. In contrast, herbivores generally decreased diversity in more species rich unburned plots. Although this study documents complex interactions between repeated burns, nutrients, and herbivory, it is clear that fire initiates a shift in the factors that are most important in determining the diversity and number of recruits. This change may have long-lasting effects as the forest progresses through succession.

Recuperation of nitrogen cycling in Amazonian forests following agricultural abandonment.

Phosphorus (P) is generally considered the most common limiting nutrient for productivity of mature tropical lowland forests growing on highly weathered soils. It is often assumed that P limitation also applies to young tropical forests, but nitrogen (N) losses during land-use change may alter the stoichiometric balance of nutrient cycling processes. In the Amazon basin, about 16% of the original forest area has been cleared, and about 30-50% of cleared land is estimated now to be in some stage of secondary forest succession following agricultural abandonment. Here we use forest age chronosequences to demonstrate that young successional forests growing after agricultural abandonment on highly weathered lowland tropical soils exhibit conservative N-cycling properties much like those of N-limited forests on younger soils in temperate latitudes. As secondary succession progresses, N-cycling properties recover and the dominance of a conservative P cycle typical of mature lowland tropical forests re-emerges. These successional shifts in N:P cycling ratios with forest age provide a mechanistic explanation for initially lower and then gradually increasing soil emissions of the greenhouse gas nitrous oxide (N(2)O). The patterns of N and P cycling during secondary forest succession, demonstrated here over decadal timescales, are similar to N- and P-cycling patterns during primary succession as soils age over thousands and millions of years, thus revealing that N availability in terrestrial ecosystems is ephemeral and can be disrupted by either natural or anthropogenic disturbances at several timescales.

Improved scientific knowledge of methanogenesis and methanotrophy needed to slow climate change during the next 30 years.

Owing to the high radiative forcing and short atmospheric residence time of methane, abatement of methane emissions offers a crucial opportunity for effective, rapid slowing of climate change. Here, we report on a colloquium jointly sponsored by the American Society for Microbiology and the American Geophysical Union, where 35 national and international experts from academia, the private sector, and government met to review understanding of the microbial processes of methanogenesis and methanotrophy. The colloquium addressed how advanced knowledge of the microbiology of methane production and consumption could inform waste management, including landfills and composts, and three areas of agricultural management: enteric emissions from ruminant livestock, manure management, and rice cultivation. Support for both basic and applied research in microbiology and its applications is urgently needed to accelerate the realization of the large potential for these near-term solutions to counteract climate change.

Stoichiometric patterns in foliar nutrient resorption across multiple scales.

• Nutrient resorption is a fundamental process through which plants withdraw nutrients from leaves before abscission. Nutrient resorption patterns have the potential to reflect gradients in plant nutrient limitation and to affect a suite of terrestrial ecosystem functions. • Here, we used a stoichiometric approach to assess patterns in foliar resorption at a variety of scales, specifically exploring how N : P resorption ratios relate to presumed variation in N and/or P limitation and possible relationships between N : P resorption ratios and soil nutrient availability. • N : P resorption ratios varied significantly at the global scale, increasing with latitude and decreasing with mean annual temperature and precipitation. In general, tropical sites (absolute latitudes < 23°26') had N : P resorption ratios of < 1, and plants growing on highly weathered tropical soils maintained the lowest N : P resorption ratios. Resorption ratios also varied with forest age along an Amazonian forest regeneration chronosequence and among species in a diverse Costa Rican rain forest. • These results suggest that variations in N : P resorption stoichiometry offer insight into nutrient cycling and limitation at a variety of spatial scales, complementing other metrics of plant nutrient biogeochemistry. The extent to which the stoichiometric flexibility of resorption will help regulate terrestrial responses to global change merits further investigation.