Predictors of Functional Decline Among Critically Ill Surgical Patients: A National Analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Functional decline is associated with critical illness, though this relationship in surgical patients is unclear. This study aims to characterize functional decline after intensive care unit (ICU) admission among surgical patients. METHODS: We performed a retrospective analysis of surgical patients admitted to the ICU in the Cerner Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation database, which includes 236 hospitals, from 2007 to 2017. Patients with and without functional decline were compared. Predictors of decline were modeled. RESULTS: A total of 52,838 patients were included; 19,310 (36.5%) experienced a functional decline. Median ages of the decline and nondecline groups were 69 (interquartile range 59-78) and 63 (interquartile range 52-72) years, respectively (P < 0.01). The nondecline group had a larger proportion of males (59.1% versus 55.3% in the decline group, P < 0.01). After controlling for sociodemographic covariates, comorbidities, and disease severity upon ICU admission, patients undergoing pulmonary (odds ratio [OR] 6.54, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.67-16.02), musculoskeletal (OR 4.13, CI 3.51-4.87), neurological (OR 2.67, CI 2.39-2.98), gastrointestinal (OR 1.61, CI 1.38-1.88), and skin and soft tissue (OR 1.35, CI 1.08-1.68) compared to cardiovascular surgeries had increased odds of decline. CONCLUSIONS: More than one in three critically ill surgical patients experienced a functional decline. Pulmonary, musculoskeletal, and neurological procedures conferred the greatest risk. Additional resources should be targeted toward the rehabilitation of these patients.

Transfusion and Mortality in Acute Care Surgical Patients in Malawi: A Propensity-Matched Analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Information on transfusion-associated outcomes is limited in sub-Saharan Africa. We sought to characterize predictors of mortality in transfused patients with acute care surgical conditions in Malawi. METHODS: We performed a retrospective propensity-matched analysis of patients with acute care surgical conditions at Kamuzu Central Hospital in Malawi from 2013 to 2021. We compared outcomes between patients who did and did not receive transfusions. RESULTS: A total of 7395 patients were included. Transfused patients (n = 1086) were older (median 43 y with interquartile range 30-59, versus 39 y [interquartile range 27-53] in the nontransfused group, P < 0.01), had a higher proportion of females (41% versus 27%, P < 0.01), presented earlier to the hospital (median 2.9 versus 3.7 d, P = 0.02), and with lower hemoglobin levels (27% versus 1% < 7 g/dL, P < 0.01). They had a lower rate of surgical intervention (48% versus 59%, P < 0.01) but a higher rate of complications (62% versus 33%, P < 0.01). Crude in-hospital mortality was 25.5% for the transfused group and 12.8% for the nontransfused group (P < 0.01). After propensity matching, transfused patients had three times the odds of mortality compared to nontransfused patients (odds ratio 3.3, 95% confidence interval 2.3, 4.8). CONCLUSIONS: In this propensity-matched study, transfused surgical patients were more likely to experience in-hospital mortality. These results suggest that the transfusion requirement reflects critical illness and warrants further investigation in this low-resource setting.

Fall-Related Injuries in Malawi: Outcomes and Trends Over Time.

BACKGROUND: Fall-related injury (FRI) is a leading cause of injuries worldwide. Data on injury patterns and trends over time are lacking in resource-limited settings. METHODS: We performed a retrospective analysis of FRI at Kamuzu Central Hospital in Malawi from 2009 to 2021. Outcomes were compared between patients presenting with FRI and those with other injury mechanisms. Bivariate and multivariate regressions were used to determine predictors of presentation following falls and mortality. We also analyzed time trends. RESULTS: A total of 166,047 patients were included, of which 41,695 were patients presenting after falls (25.7%). Most FRI patients were between 5 and 45 (67.2%) and male (66.9%). Most falls occurred at home (67.3%) and resulted in extremity injuries (51.6%). The predicted probability of hospital presentation after falling is highest for children ≤ 5 years and adults > 60 years and decreases over time. On multivariate analysis, patients between 5 and 15 [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 1.70, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.63-1.77] and > 60 (AOR 1.14, 95% CI 1.07-1.22) and women (AOR 1.13, 95% CI 1.10-1.16) are more likely to present with FRI. Compared to patients with non-FRI, those with FRI were more likely to have been injured at school (AOR 2.16, 95% CI 2.01-2.32) and during sports and recreation (AOR 4.53, 95% CI 4.24-4.85). CONCLUSION: FRI is the most common injury presentation after motor vehicle injury in this low-resource setting. This study provides essential information about FRI in Malawi over time. Our findings can help inform resource allocation and injury prevention initiatives.

Tri-modal Distribution of Trauma Deaths in a Resource-Limited Setting: Perception Versus Reality.

BACKGROUND: Advances in trauma care in high-income countries have significantly reduced late deaths following trauma, challenging the classical trimodal pattern of trauma-associated mortality. While studies from low and middle-income countries have demonstrated that the trimodal pattern is still occurring in many regions, there is a lack of data from sub-Saharan Africa evaluating the temporal epidemiology of trauma deaths. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective analysis of the trauma registry at Kamuzu Central Hospital in Lilongwe, Malawi, including all injured patients presenting to the emergency department (ED) from 2009 to 2021. Patients were compared based on timing of death relative to time of injury. We then used a modified Poisson regression model to identify adjusted predictors for early mortality compared to late mortality. RESULTS: Crude mortality of patients presenting to the ED in the study period was 2.4% (n = 4,096/165,324). Most patients experienced a pre-hospital death (n = 2,330, 56.9%), followed by death in the ED (n = 619, 15.1%). Early death (pre-hospital or ED) was associated with transportation by police (RR1.52, 95% CI 1.38, 1.68) or private vehicle (RR1.20, 95% CI 1.07, 1.31), vehicle-related trauma (RR1.10, 95% CI 1.05, 1.14), and penetrating injury (RR1.11, 95% CI 1.04, 1.19). Ambulance transportation was associated with a 40% decrease in the risk of early death. CONCLUSIONS: At a busy tertiary trauma center in Malawi, most trauma-associated deaths occur within 48 h of injury, with most in the pre-hospital setting. To improve clinical outcomes for trauma patients in this environment, substantial investment in pre-hospital care is required through first-responder training and EMS infrastructure.

Arrhythmias in Critically Ill Surgical and Non-surgical Patients: A National Propensity-Matched Study.

BACKGROUND: Arrhythmias are common in critically ill patients, though the impact of arrhythmias on surgical patients is not well delineated. We aimed to characterize mortality following arrhythmias in critically ill patients. METHODS: We performed a propensity-matched retrospective analysis of intensive care unit (ICU) patients from 2007 to 2017 in the Cerner Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation database. We compared outcomes between patients with and without arrhythmias and those with and without surgical indications for ICU admission. We also modeled predictors of arrhythmias in surgical patients. RESULTS: 467,951 patients were included; 97,958 (20.9%) were surgical patients. Arrhythmias occurred in 1.4% of the study cohorts. Predictors of arrhythmias in surgical patients included a history of cardiovascular disease (odds ratio [OR] 1.35, 95% confidence interval [CI95] 1.11-1.63), respiratory failure (OR 1.48, CI95 1.12-1.96), pneumonia (OR 3.17, CI95 1.98-5.10), higher bicarbonate level (OR 1.03, CI95 1.01-1.05), lower albumin level (OR 0.79, CI95 0.68-0.91), and vasopressor requirement (OR 27.2, CI95 22.0-33.7). After propensity matching, surgical patients with arrhythmias had a 42% mortality risk reduction compared to non-surgical patients (risk ratio [RR] 0.58, CI 95 0.43-0.79). Predicted probabilities of mortality for surgical patients were lower at all ages. CONCLUSIONS: Surgical patients with arrhythmias are at lower risk of mortality than non-surgical patients. In this propensity-matched analysis, predictors of arrhythmias in critically ill surgical patients included a history of cardiovascular disease, respiratory complications, increased bicarbonate levels, decreased albumin levels, and vasopressor requirement. These findings highlight the differential effect of arrhythmias on different cohorts of critically ill populations.

The Timing of Operative Intervention for Pediatric Burn Patients in Malawi.

BACKGROUND: Defining the optimal timing of operative intervention for pediatric burn patients in a resource-limited environment is challenging. We sought to characterize the association between mortality and the timing of operative intervention at a burn center in Lilongwe, Malawi. METHODS: This is a retrospective analysis of burn patients (<18 years old) presenting to Kamuzu Central Hospital from 2011 to 2022. We compared patients who underwent excision and/or burn grafting based on the timing of the operation. We used logistic regression modeling to estimate the adjusted odds ratio of death based on the timing of surgery. RESULTS: We included 2502 patients with a median age of 3 years (IQR 1-5) and a male preponderance (56.8%). 411 patients (16.4%) had surgery with a median time to surgery of 18 days (IQR 8-34). The crude mortality rate among all patients was 17.0% and 9.1% among the operative cohort. The odds ratio of mortality for patients undergoing surgery within 3 days from presentation was 5.00 (95% CI 2.19, 11.44) after adjusting for age, sex, % total burn surface area (TBSA), and flame burn. The risk was highest for the youngest patients. CONCLUSIONS: Children who underwent burn excision and/or grafting in the first 3 days of hospitalization had a much higher risk of death than patients undergoing surgical intervention later. Delaying operative intervention till >72 h for pediatric patients, especially those under 5 years old, may confer a survival advantage. More investment is needed in early resuscitation and monitoring for this patient population.

Predictors of mortality following electrical and lightning injuries in Malawi: A decade of experience.

INTRODUCTION: Electrical injuries can be devastating, and data is lacking in low-resource settings. We aimed to identify predictors of mortality following electrical and lightning injuries (ELI) in Malawi. METHODS: We performed a retrospective observational study of patients presenting with ELI and burn injuries at a tertiary hospital in Malawi from 2011 to 2020. Outcomes were compared and predictors of mortality were modeled. RESULTS: A total of 382 ELI and 6371 burn patients were included. The mean ages for ELI and burn groups were 24 ± 14 and 11 ± 14 years, respectively (p < 0.01). Most patients were injured at home (91% in the burn group versus 51% in the ELI group, p < 0.01). The crude mortality rate in the ELI group was 28%, compared to 12% in the burn group (p < 0.01). On multivariate logistic regression, predictors of mortality included ELI (odds ratio [OR] 13.3, 95% confidence interval [CI] 7.2-24.5) and total body surface area burned (OR 1.1, 95% CI 1.1-1.1). Predicted mortality for ELI has increased over time (p = 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: ELI confers more than 13 times higher odds of mortality than burn injuries in Malawi, with mortality risk increasing over time. More efforts are needed to prevent electrical hazards and implement timely interventions for patients with ELI.

Predictors of mortality for perforated peptic ulcer disease in Malawi.

BACKGROUND: Mortality from perforated peptic ulcer disease (PUD) remains high, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. We sought to identify predictors of mortality following surgery for perforated PUD. METHODS: We performed a retrospective study of acute care surgeries at Kamuzu Central Hospital (KCH) in Malawi from 2013 to 2022. Patients undergoing omental patch surgeries were included. Bivariate and multivariate analyses were used to model predictors of mortality. RESULTS: A total of 248 patients were included. The mean age was 30 ± 15 years. Ninety percent were male. Mortality rate was 22.2%. Predictors of mortality included age (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 1.06, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.03-1.09), shock index (AOR 1.86, 95% CI 1.14-3.03), days to operative intervention (AOR 1.44, 95% CI 1.10-1.88), and presence of complications (AOR 9.65, 95% CI 3.79-24.6). CONCLUSIONS: Mortality following surgery for perforated PUD remains high in this low-resource environment. In-hospital delay is a significant and modifiable predictor of mortality.

Pediatric Traumatic Brain Injury in Malawi: A Propensity-Weighted Analysis of Outcomes and Trends Over Time.

BACKGROUND: Pediatric injuries contribute to substantial mortality and morbidity worldwide, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. We aim to identify predictors of mortality and time trends for pediatric traumatic brain injuries (TBIs) in Malawi. METHODS: We performed a propensity-matched analysis of data from the trauma registry at Kamuzu Central Hospital in Malawi from 2008 to 2021. All children ≤16 years of age were included. Demographic and clinical data were collected. Outcomes were compared between patients with and without head injuries. RESULTS: A cohort of 54,878 patients was included, with 1755 having TBI. The mean ages of patients with and without TBI were 7.8 ± 7.8 years and 7.1 ± 4.5 years, respectively. The most common mechanism for patients with and without TBI was road traffic injury and falls, respectively (48.2% vs. 47.8%, P < 0.01). The crude mortality rate for the TBI cohort was 20.9% compared to 2.0% in the non-TBI cohort (P < 0.01). After propensity matching, patients with TBI had 4.7 higher odds of mortality (95% confidence interval 1.9-11.8). Over time, patients with TBI had an increasing predicted probability of mortality for all age categories, with the most significant increase among children younger than 1 year. CONCLUSIONS: TBI confers a greater than 4-fold higher likelihood of mortality in this pediatric trauma population in a low-resource setting. These trends have worsened over time.

Stigma, Social Support, and Sexual Behavior Among Female Sex Workers at Risk for HIV in Malawi.

Lack of social support and sex work stigma may hinder STI/HIV prevention for female sex workers (FSW). We explored the associations between sex work stigma and social support with sexual behaviors in Malawi. In 2017, 150 HIV-negative, venue-based FSW completed a behavioral survey containing sex work stigma items and social support. Linear binomial regression models were used to estimate prevalence differences of inconsistent condom use and substance use before sex by social support and stigma. A majority (93%) reported sex work-related internalized stigma. About 50% reported family or friend isolation. Social support was high (mean index: 86.53). Inconsistent condom use and substance use before sex had little to no association with stigma and social support. Malawian FSW largely internalize stigma and experience isolation from family and friends yet have high levels of social support. Large-scale evaluations should investigate the role of stigma and social support in STI/HIV prevention for FSW.

Task shifting levonorgestrel implant insertion to community midwife assistants in Malawi: results from a non-inferiority evaluation.

BACKGROUND: In 2013, Malawi began task shifting long acting reversible contraception (LARC) insertion from Nurse Midwife Technicians (NMTs), who undergo 3 years of training, to Community Midwife Assistants (CMAs), who undergo 18 months of training. However, there is no evidence on whether CMAs have the same competency as NMTs for LARC insertion. Therefore, we describe a non-inferiority evaluation to determine whether CMAs are non-inferior to NMTs for the insertion of levonorgestrel (LNG) contraceptive implants in Malawi. METHODS: One CMA and one matched NMT from 31 health centers across Malawi were selected for training in Malawi's 1-week LARC insertion course in October 2016, and 31 CMAs and 30 NMTs completed the training. After the course, two Family Planning Master Trainers visited the nurses' health centers over a 5-month period and used the Malawi LNG implant insertion checklist to evaluate the first five LNG implant insertions that each nurse performed during the monitoring visit. A non- inferiority margin of 10% was used to compare mean implant scores between CMAs and NMTs. RESULTS: We were able to fully evaluate 29 CMAs and 29 NMTs with the LNG implant insertion checklist. The CMAs and NMTs had mean scores of 90.2% and 89.7%, respectively, which were non-inferior (mean difference - 0.5%; 95% CI -3.4%, 2.4%), even when adjusted for the number of years post-graduation and the number of LNG implants inserted pre-training, during training, and since training (mean difference 1.3%; 95% CI -2.2%, 4.8%). CONCLUSIONS: CMAs were non-inferior to NMTs with LNG implant insertion, and both cadres were generally observed to be competent with their insertions after completing their follow-up evaluations. During the evaluations, we generally saw an increase in scores with each insertion. Therefore, for both cadres, it is important to establish continued mentorship and evaluation for LARC insertion after the initial training.