Incidence of Burkitt lymphoma in the United States during 2000 to 2019.

Burkitt lymphoma (BL) is an aggressive B-cell lymphoma that occurs worldwide. A study of BL in the US National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) program during 1973 to 2005 (n = 3043) revealed three age-specific incidence peaks of BL and rates that were rising. We studied BL cases diagnosed in SEER 22 during 2000 to 2019 (n = 11 626) to investigate age-specific BL incidence rates and temporal trends. The age-standardized BL incidence rate was 3.96/million person-years, with a 2.85:1 male-to-female ratio. The BL rate among both Hispanic and White individuals was higher than in Black individuals (4.52, 4.12 vs 3.14). Age-specific BL rates showed peaks during pediatric, adult and elderly years in males and pediatric and elderly peaks in females. Based on 4524 BL cases with HIV status (SEER 13), only one peak in adult males (45 years) was observed. Overall age-standardized BL incidence rates rose 1.2%/year (not significant) up to 2009 then fell significantly by 2.4%/year thereafter. Temporal trends in BL rates during 2000 to 2019 varied with age group as pediatric BL rates rose 1.1%/year, while elderly BL rates fell 1.7%/year and adult BL rates rose 3.4%/year until 2007 before falling 3.1%/year thereafter. Overall survival from BL was 64% at 2 years, being highest in pediatric patients and lowest in Black and elderly individuals vs other subgroups. Survival improved by 20% between 2000 and 2019. Our data suggest that BL age-specific incidence rates are multimodal and that overall BL rates rose up to 2009 and then fell, suggesting changes in etiological factors or diagnosis.

Nonmalignant meningioma and vestibular schwannoma incidence trends in the United States, 2004-2017.

BACKGROUND: Given concerns about risks associated with the growing use of mobile phones over recent decades, the authors analyzed temporal trends in incidence rates of nonmalignant meningioma and vestibular schwannoma in the United States. METHODS: The incidence of nonmalignant meningioma and vestibular schwannoma among adults in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results 18 registries during 2004 through 2017 was evaluated according to the method of diagnosis: microscopically (MC) or radiographically confirmed (RGC). Annual percent changes (APCs) and 95% CIs were estimated using log-linear models. RESULTS: Overall meningioma rates (n = 108,043) increased significantly from 2004 to 2009 (APC, 5.4%; 95% CI, 4.4%-6.4%) but subsequently rose at a slower pace through 2017 (APC, 1.0%; 95% CI, 0.6%-1.5%). Rates for MC meningiomas changed little from 2004 to 2017 (APC, -0.3%; 95% CI, -0.7%, 0.1%) but rose rapidly for RGC meningiomas until 2009 (APC, 9.5%; 95% CI, 7.8%-11.1%) and rose more modestly thereafter (APC, 2.3%; 95% CI, 1.5%-3.0%). Overall vestibular schwannoma rates (n = 17,475) were stable (APC, 0.4%; 95% CI, -0.2%, 1.0%), but MC vestibular schwannoma rates decreased (APC, -1.9%; 95% CI, -2.7%, -1.1%), whereas RGC vestibular schwannoma rates rose (2006-2017: APC, 1.7%; 95% CI, 0.5%-3.0%). For each tumor, the trends by diagnostic method were similar for each sex and each racial/ethnic group, but RGC diagnosis was more likely in older patients and for smaller tumors. Meningioma trends and the proportion of RGC diagnoses varied notably by registry. CONCLUSIONS: Overall trends obscured differences by diagnostic method in this first large, detailed assessment, but the recent stable rates argue against an association with mobile phone use. Variation among registries requires evaluation to improve the registration of these nonmalignant tumors. LAY SUMMARY: The etiology of most benign meningiomas and vestibular schwannomas is poorly understood, but concerns have been raised about whether mobile phone use contributes to risk of developing these tumors. Descriptive studies examining temporal trends could provide insight; however, globally, few registries collect these nonmalignant cases. In the United States, reporting benign meningiomas and vestibular schwannomas became required by law in 2004. This was the first large, systematic study to quantify and characterize incidence trends for meningioma and vestibular schwannoma according to whether the tumors were diagnosed microscopically or only radiographically. Differential trends across registries and by diagnostic method suggest that caution should be used when interpreting the patterns.

Higher Lung Cancer Incidence in Young Women Than Young Men in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies showed a higher incidence of lung cancer among young women than among young men in the United States. Whether this pattern has continued in contemporary birth cohorts and, if so, whether it can be fully explained by sex differences in smoking behaviors are unknown. METHODS: We examined the nationwide population-based incidence of lung cancer according to sex, race or ethnic group, age group (30 to 34, 35 to 39, 40 to 44, 45 to 49, and 50 to 54 years), year of birth (1945 to 1980), and calendar period of diagnosis (1995-1999, 2000-2004, 2005-2009, and 2010-2014), and we calculated female-to-male incidence rate ratios. We also examined the prevalence of cigarette smoking, using data from the National Health Interview Survey from 1970 to 2016. RESULTS: Over the past two decades, the age-specific incidence of lung cancer has generally decreased among both men and women 30 to 54 years of age in all races and ethnic groups, but the declines among men have been steeper. Consequently, among non-Hispanic whites, the female-to-male incidence rate ratios increased, exceeding 1.0 in the age groups of 30 to 34, 35 to 39, 40 to 44, and 45 to 49 years. For example, the female-to-male incidence rate ratio among whites 40 to 44 years of age increased from 0.88 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.84 to 0.92) during the 1995-1999 period to 1.17 (95% CI, 1.11 to 1.23) during the 2010-2014 period. The crossover in sex-specific rates occurred among non-Hispanic whites born since 1965. Sex-specific incidence rates converged among non-Hispanic blacks, Hispanics, and non-Hispanic Asians and Pacific Islanders but crossed over from a higher incidence among men to a higher incidence among women only among Hispanics. The prevalence of cigarette smoking among women born since 1965 has approached, but generally not exceeded, the prevalence among men. CONCLUSIONS: The patterns of historically higher incidence rates of lung cancer among men than among women have reversed among non-Hispanic whites and Hispanics born since the mid-1960s, and they are not fully explained by sex differences in smoking behaviors. Future studies are needed to identify reasons for the higher incidence of lung cancer among young women. (Funded by the American Cancer Society.).

Inflammatory and other breast cancer incidence rate trends by estrogen receptor status in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database (2001-2015).

PURPOSE: Inflammatory breast cancer (IBC) rates increased in the United States before the turn of the twenty-first century. We examine trends by estrogen receptor (ER) status since then. METHODS: Using data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program for years 2001-2015, we calculated age-adjusted incidence rates for IBC (defined by AJCC TNM category T4d, extent of disease codes, and morphology code 8530) by ER status, which was imputed if unknown, among women aged 25-84 years. For comparison, we included other locally advanced breast cancer and other breast cancers partitioned into localized and regional/distant/unstaged. We fit joinpoint log-linear models to annual rates to calculate annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC). RESULTS: The rate of increase in ER+ IBC rates among women aged 25-44 (AAPC = 0.5) was similar to other advanced tumor types, but declines among women aged 45-84 (AAPC = - 2.2) were more rapid. Declines in ER- IBC rates for women aged 25-84 (AAPC = - 3.7) were more rapid than for other tumor types. CONCLUSIONS: Our results show a reversal of the rising rates of IBC overall reported at the end of the twentieth century. Direction of trends for IBC is consistent with other breast cancer types, except for ER+ localized breast cancer in older women. Decreasing parity and rising prevalence of older age at first birth may contribute to declining rates of ER- IBC. Otherwise, patterns of changing risk factors are inconsistent with the trends we observed. Further studies of IBC are necessary to identify additional risk factors and possible preventive strategies.

Predicting the Future Burden of Esophageal Cancer by Histological Subtype: International Trends in Incidence up to 2030.

OBJECTIVES: Rapid increases in the incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) in high-income countries in the past decades have raised public health concerns. This study is the first to predict the future burden of esophageal cancer by histological subtype using international incidence data. METHODS: Data on esophageal cancer incidence by year of diagnosis, sex, histology, and age group were extracted from 42 registries in 12 countries included in the last three volumes (VIII-X) of Cancer Incidence in Five Continents, contributing at least 15 years of consecutive data. Numbers of new cases and incidence rates were predicted up to 2030 by fitting and extrapolating age-period-cohort models; the differential impact of demographic vs. risk changes on future cases were examined. RESULTS: The number of new AC cases is expected to increase rapidly 2005-2030 in all studied countries as a combined result of increasing risk and changing demographics. In contrast, the incidence of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) is predicted to continue decreasing in most countries. By 2030, 1 in 100 men in the Netherlands and the United Kingdom are predicted to be diagnosed with EAC during their lifetime. CONCLUSIONS: The burden from EAC is expected to rise dramatically across high-income countries and has already or will surpass ESCC incidence in the coming years, especially among men. Notwithstanding the inherent uncertainties in trend-based predictions and in subtype misclassification, these findings highlight an ongoing transition in the epidemiology of esophageal cancer that is highly relevant to future cancer control planning and clinical practice.

Prostate-specific antigen testing for prostate cancer: Depleting a limited pool of susceptible individuals?

After the introduction of the prostate specific antigen (PSA) test in the 1980s, a sharp increase in the incidence rate of prostate cancer was seen in the United States. The age-specific incidence patterns exhibited remarkable shifts to younger ages, and declining rates were observed at old ages. Similar trends were seen in Norway. We investigate whether these features could, in combination with PSA testing, be explained by a varying degree of susceptibility to prostate cancer in the populations. We analyzed incidence data from the United States' Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program for 1973-2010, comprising 511,027 prostate cancers in men ≥40 years old, and Norwegian national incidence data for 1953-2011, comprising 113,837 prostate cancers in men ≥50 years old. We developed a frailty model where only a proportion of the population could develop prostate cancer, and where the increased risk of diagnosis due to the massive use of PSA testing was modelled by encompassing this heterogeneity in risk. The frailty model fits the observed data well, and captures the changing age-specific incidence patterns across birth cohorts. The susceptible proportion of men is [Formula: see text] in the United States and [Formula: see text] in Norway. Cumulative incidence rates at old age are unchanged across birth cohort exposed to PSA testing at younger and younger ages. The peaking cohort-specific age-incidence curves of prostate cancer may be explained by the underlying heterogeneity in prostate cancer risk. The introduction of the PSA test has led to a larger number of diagnosed men. However, no more cases are being diagnosed in total in birth cohorts exposed to the PSA era at younger and younger ages, even though they are diagnosed at younger ages. Together with the earlier peak in the age-incidence curves for younger cohorts, and the strong familial association of the cancer, this constitutes convincing evidence that the PSA test has led to a higher proportion, and an earlier timing, of diagnoses in a limited pool of susceptible individuals.

Trends in Thyroid Cancer Incidence and Mortality in the United States, 1974-2013.

Importance: Thyroid cancer incidence has increased substantially in the United States over the last 4 decades, driven largely by increases in papillary thyroid cancer. It is unclear whether the increasing incidence of papillary thyroid cancer has been related to thyroid cancer mortality trends. Objective: To compare trends in thyroid cancer incidence and mortality by tumor characteristics at diagnosis. Design, Setting, and Participants: Trends in thyroid cancer incidence and incidence-based mortality rates were evaluated using data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-9 (SEER-9) cancer registry program, and annual percent change in rates was calculated using log-linear regression. Exposure: Tumor characteristics. Main Outcomes and Measures: Annual percent changes in age-adjusted thyroid cancer incidence and incidence-based mortality rates by histologic type and SEER stage for cases diagnosed during 1974-2013. Results: Among 77 276 patients (mean [SD] age at diagnosis, 48 [16] years; 58 213 [75%] women) diagnosed with thyroid cancer from 1974-2013, papillary thyroid cancer was the most common histologic type (64 625 cases), and 2371 deaths from thyroid cancer occurred during 1994-2013. Thyroid cancer incidence increased, on average, 3.6% per year (95% CI, 3.2%-3.9%) during 1974-2013 (from 4.56 per 100 000 person-years in 1974-1977 to 14.42 per 100 000 person-years in 2010-2013), primarily related to increases in papillary thyroid cancer (annual percent change, 4.4% [95% CI, 4.0%-4.7%]). Papillary thyroid cancer incidence increased for all SEER stages at diagnosis (4.6% per year for localized, 4.3% per year for regional, 2.4% per year for distant, 1.8% per year for unknown). During 1994-2013, incidence-based mortality increased 1.1% per year (95% CI, 0.6%-1.6%) (from 0.40 per 100 000 person-years in 1994-1997 to 0.46 per 100 000 person-years in 2010-2013) overall and 2.9% per year (95% CI, 1.1%-4.7%) for SEER distant stage papillary thyroid cancer. Conclusions and Relevance: Among patients in the United States diagnosed with thyroid cancer from 1974-2013, the overall incidence of thyroid cancer increased 3% annually, with increases in the incidence rate and thyroid cancer mortality rate for advanced-stage papillary thyroid cancer. These findings are consistent with a true increase in the occurrence of thyroid cancer in the United States.

International long-term trends and recent patterns in the incidence of leukemias and lymphomas among children and adolescents ages 0-19 years.

To enhance understanding of etiology, we examined international population-based cancer incidence data for lymphoid leukemia, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, Hodgkin lymphoma and myeloid leukemia among children aged 0-19. Based on temporal trends during 1978-2007 in 24 populations, lymphoid leukemia and myeloid leukemia incidence rates generally have not changed greatly and differences in rates for non-Hodgkin and for Hodgkin lymphoma have diminished in some regions. Lymphoid leukemia rates during 2003-2007 in 54 populations varied about 10-fold, with rates highest in US white Hispanics (50.2 per million person-years) and Ecuador (48.3) and lowest in US blacks (20.4), Tunisia (17.7) and Uganda (6.9). Non-Hodgkin lymphoma rates varied 30-fold, with very high rates in sub-Saharan Africa (146.0 in Malawi and 54.3 in Uganda) and low rates (≤ 10) in some Asian populations (China, Japan, India, the Philippines and Thailand) and U.S. Asian-Pacific Islanders, eastern and northern European populations and Puerto Rico. Hodgkin lymphoma rates varied 15-fold, with rates highest in Italy (21.3) and lowest in China (1.7). Myeloid leukemia rates varied only about fivefold, with rates highest in the Philippines and Korea (exceeding 14.0) and lowest in Eastern Europe (5.9 in Serbia and 5.3 in the Czech Republic) and Uganda (2.7). The boy/girl average incidence rate ratios were 2.00 or lower. Age-specific patterns differed among the four hematopoietic malignancies, but were generally consistent within major categories world-wide, except for non-Hodgkin lymphoma. A systematic world-wide approach comparing postulated etiologic factors in low- versus high-risk populations may help clarify the etiology of these childhood malignancies.

Prostate cancer incidence in 43 populations worldwide: An analysis of time trends overall and by age group.

Prostate cancer is a significant public health burden and a major cause of morbidity and mortality among men worldwide. Analyzing geographic patterns and temporal trends may help identify high-risk populations, suggest the degree of PSA testing, and provide clues to etiology. We used incidence data available from the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) and certain cancer registries for 43 populations across five continents during a median period of 24 years. Trends in overall prostate cancer rates showed five distinct patterns ranging from generally monotonic increases to peaking of rates followed by declines, which coincide somewhat with changes in the prevalence of PSA testing. Trends in age-specific rates generally mirrored those in the overall rates, with several notable exceptions. For populations where overall rates increased rapidly and then peaked, exemplified in North America and Oceania, the highest incidence tended to be most pronounced and occurred during earlier calendar years among older men compared with younger ones. For populations with almost continual increases in overall rates, exemplified in Eastern Europe and Asia, peaks were evident among men aged ≥ 75 years in many instances. Rates for ages 45-54 years did not clearly stabilize or decline in the majority of studied populations. Global geographic variation remained substantial for both overall and age-specific incidence rates regardless of levels of PSA testing, with the lowest rates consistently in Asia. Explanations for the persistent geographic differences and the continuing increases of especially early-onset prostate cancer remain unclear.

Incidence and patient survival of myeloproliferative neoplasms and myelodysplastic/myeloproliferative neoplasms in the United States, 2001-12.

Descriptive epidemiological information on myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPNs) and myelodysplastic (MDS)/MPNs is largely derived from single institution and European population-based studies. Data obtained following adoption of the World Health Organization classification of haematopoietic neoplasms and JAK2 V617F mutation testing are sparse. Using population-based data, we comprehensively assessed subtype-specific MPN and MDS/MPN incidence rates (IRs), IR ratios (IRRs) and relative survival (RS) in the United States (2001-12). IRs were highest for polycythaemia vera (PV) (IR = 10·9) and essential thrombocythaemia (ET) (IR = 9·6). Except for ET and mastocytosis, overall IRs were significantly higher among males (IRRs = 1·4-2·3). All evaluable MPNs were associated with lower IRs among Hispanic whites than non-Hispanic whites (NHWs), with the exception of BCR-ABL1-positive chronic myeloid leukaemia (CML), chronic eosinophilic leukaemia (CEL) and juvenile myelomonocytic leukaemia. Except for CEL, Asians/Pacific Islanders had significantly lower MPN IRs than NHWs. ET, MPN-unclassifiable and CEL IRs were 18%, 19% and 60% higher, respectively, among blacks than NHWs. Five-year RS was more favourable for younger (<60 years) than older individuals and for women compared with men, except for PV at older ages. RS was highest (>90%) for younger PV and ET patients and lowest (<20%) for older chronic myelomonocytic leukaemia and atypical BCR-ABL1-negative CML patients. Varying MPN and MDS/MPN incidence patterns by subtype support distinct aetiologies and/or susceptible populations. Decreased survival rates as compared to that expected in the general population were associated with every MPN subtype, highlighting the need for new treatments, particularly among older individuals.

A population-based study of incidence and patient survival of small cell carcinoma in the United States, 1992-2010.

BACKGROUND: In contrast to the well-described epidemiology and behavior of small cell lung carcinoma (SCLC), little is known about extrapulmonary small cell carcinoma (EPSCC). METHODS: Using data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) Program (1992-2010), we calculated age-adjusted incidence rates (IRs), IR ratios (IRRs), annual percent change (APC), relative survival (RS), RS ratios (RSRs), and the respective 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) of SCLC and EPSCC according to primary site. We used the SEER historic stage variable that includes localized (confined to the organ of origin), regional (direct extension to adjacent organ/tissue or regional lymph nodes), and distant (discontinuous metastases) stages and combined localized and regional stages into "limited" stage. RESULTS: The incidence of SCLC (IR = 76.3/million person-years; n = 51,959) was 22-times that of EPSCC (IR = 3.5; n = 2,438). Of the EPSCC sites, urinary bladder, prostate, and uterine cervix had the highest incidence (IRs = 0.7-0.8); urinary bladder (IRR = 4.91) and stomach (IRR = 3.46) had the greatest male/female disparities. Distant-to-limited stage site-specific IRRs of EPSCC were significantly elevated for pancreas (IRR = 6.87; P < 0.05), stomach, colon/rectum, ovary, and prostate (IRRs = 1.62-2.42; P < 0.05) and significantly decreased for salivary glands, female breast, uterine cervix, and urinary bladder (IRRs = 0.32-0.46). During 1992-2010, significant changes in IRs were observed for EPSCC overall (APC = 1.58), small cell carcinoma of the urinary bladder (APC = 6.75), SCLC (APC = -2.74) and small cell carcinoma of unknown primary site (APC = -4.34). Three-year RS was significantly more favorable for patients with EPSCC than SCLC for both limited (RSR = 2.06; 95% CI 1.88, 2.26) and distant stages (RSR = 1.55; 95% CI 1.16, 2.07). Among limited stage small cell carcinoma, RS was most favorable for salivary glands, female breast, and uterine cervix (RS = 52-68%), whereas RS for nearly all sites with distant stage disease was <10%. CONCLUSION: EPSCC comprises a heterogeneous group of diseases that appears, at least in part, etiologically distinct from SCLC and is associated with more favorable stage-specific patient survival.

US lung cancer trends by histologic type.

BACKGROUND: Lung cancer incidence rates overall are declining in the United States. This study investigated the trends by histologic type and demographic characteristics. METHODS: Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program rates of microscopically confirmed lung cancer overall and squamous cell, small cell, adenocarcinoma, large cell, other, and unspecified carcinomas among US whites and blacks diagnosed from 1977 to 2010 and white non-Hispanics, Asian/Pacific Islanders, and white Hispanics diagnosed from 1992 to 2010 were analyzed by sex and age. RESULTS: Squamous and small cell carcinoma rates declined since the 1990s, although less rapidly among females than males. Adenocarcinoma rates decreased among males and only through 2005, after which they then rose during 2006 to 2010 among every racial/ethnic/sex group; rates for unspecified type declined. Male/female rate ratios declined among whites and blacks more than among other groups. Recent rates among young females were higher than among males for adenocarcinoma among all racial/ethnic groups and for other specified carcinomas among whites. CONCLUSIONS: US lung cancer trends vary by sex, histologic type, racial/ethnic group, and age, reflecting historical cigarette smoking rates, duration, cessation, cigarette composition, and exposure to other carcinogens. Substantial excesses among males have diminished and higher rates of adenocarcinoma among young females have emerged as rates among males declined more rapidly. The recognition of EGFR mutation and ALK rearrangements that occur primarily in adenocarcinomas are the primary basis for the molecular revolution that has transformed lung cancer diagnosis and treatment over the past decade, and these changes have affected recent type-specific trends.

Incidence of marginal zone lymphoma in the United States, 2001-2009 with a focus on primary anatomic site.

The aetiology of marginal zone lymphoma (MZL) is purported to differ by anatomic site. While this is supported by clinical series of single MZL sites, no population-based study has comprehensively assessed incidence patterns across sites. To gain insight into disease aetiology, we assessed MZL incidence by site using data from 18 U.S. Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) Program population-based registries. We calculated age-adjusted incidence rates (IRs) by sex, race, and calendar year. During 2001-2009, 4,081 (IR = 5·7/1,000,000 person-years) and 8,821 (IR = 12·3) individuals were diagnosed with nodal MZL and extranodal MZL, respectively. The most common extranodal sites were stomach (IR = 3·8), spleen (IR = 1·6), eye/adnexa (IR = 1·4), and lung, skin, and salivary glands (IRs = 0·9-1·0). We observed distinct age-specific patterns by MZL site, with IRs increasing steeply at younger ages and less prominently after mid-life at several sites, except skin. Gender and racial/ethnic disparities were also apparent across sites. Between 2001-2005 and 2006-2009, MZL IRs decreased significantly for gastric (-15%) and soft tissue (-28%) sites, whereas IRs increased significantly for lung (18%), skin (43%), and kidney/renal pelvis (116%). In combination, our findings support the contention that MZL is characterized by aetiological heterogeneity across sites and susceptibility is probably influenced by intrinsic characteristics and environmental exposures.

Acute leukemia incidence and patient survival among children and adults in the United States, 2001-2007.

Since 2001, the World Health Organization classification for hematopoietic and lymphoid neoplasms has provided a framework for defining acute leukemia (AL) subtypes, although few population-based studies have assessed incidence patterns and patient survival accordingly. We assessed AL incidence rates (IRs), IR ratios (IRRs), and relative survival in the United States (2001-2007) in one of the first population-based, comprehensive assessments. Most subtypes of acute myeloid leukemia (AML) and acute lymphoblastic leukemia/lymphoma (ALL/L) predominated among males, from twice higher incidence of T-cell ALL/L among males than among females (IRR = 2.20) to nearly equal IRs of acute promyelocytic leukemia (APL; IRR = 1.08). Compared with non-Hispanic whites, Hispanics had significantly higher incidence of B-cell ALL/L (IRR = 1.64) and APL (IRR = 1.28); blacks had lower IRs of nearly all AL subtypes. All ALL/L but only some AML subtypes were associated with a bimodal age pattern. Among AML subtypes, survival was highest for APL and AML with inv(16). B-cell ALL/L had more favorable survival than T-cell ALL/L among the young; the converse occurred at older ages. Limitations of cancer registry data must be acknowledged, but the distinct AL incidence and survival patterns based on the World Health Organization classification support biologic diversity that should facilitate etiologic discovery, prognostication, and treatment advances.

Biliary tract cancer incidence in the United States-Demographic and temporal variations by anatomic site.

We evaluated incidence patterns of biliary tract cancers (gallbladder, extrahepatic bile duct, ampulla of Vater and not otherwise specified) to provide potential insight into the etiology of these cancers. Data were obtained from the population-based Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results program. Rates for cases diagnosed during 1992-2009 were calculated by racial/ethnic, gender and age groups. Temporal trends during 1974-2009 and annual percentage changes (APC) during 1992-2009 were estimated. Age-adjusted rates by site were higher among American Indian/Alaska Natives, Hispanics (white) and Asian/Pacific Islanders (Asian/PI) and lower among whites and blacks. Gallbladder cancer was more common among women in all ethnic groups (female-to-male incidence rate ratio [IRR] ranged from 1.24 to 2.86), but bile duct and ampulla of Vater cancers were more common among men (female-to-male IRR 0.57 to 0.82). Gallbladder cancer rates declined among all racial/ethnic and gender groups except blacks (APC -0.4% to -3.9%). In contrast, extrahepatic bile duct cancer rates rose significantly in most female racial/ethnic groups; the APCs among whites were 0.8 among females and 1.3 among males, both significant. Rates for ampulla of Vater cancer decreased among Asian/PI females (APC -2.7%) but remained stable for the other groups. In addition to confirming that biliary tract cancer incidence patterns differ by gender and site and that the gallbladder cancer incidence rates have been declining, our study provides novel evidence that extrahepatic bile duct cancer rates are rising. These observations may help guide future etiologic studies.

Racial disparity in renal cell carcinoma patient survival according to demographic and clinical characteristics.

BACKGROUND: Patients with renal cell carcinoma (RCC) who are black tend to have poorer prognosis than similar patients who are white. This study examined whether the racial disparity in RCC patient survival varies by demographic and clinical characteristics. METHODS: Nearly 40,000 patients (4359 black and 34,991 white) diagnosed with invasive RCC from 1992 to 2007 were identified from 12 registries in the National Cancer Institute Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program, covering approximately 14% of the US population. Relative survival rates through 2008 were computed using the actuarial method. RESULTS: Proportionally more blacks than whites were diagnosed with RCC under age 50 and with localized cancer. Overall, the 5-year relative survival rates were 72.6% (95% confidence interval 72.0%-73.2%) for white and 68.0% (66.2%-69.8%) for black patients. Survival was higher among women than men and among younger than older patients. Survival decreased with advancing tumor stage and, within each stage, decreased with increasing tumor size. Patients with clear cell RCC, a more common form among whites, had poorer prognosis than patients with papillary or chromophobe subtypes, which are more common among blacks. Survival for patients who received no surgical treatment (10.5% of white patients and 14.5% of black patients) was substantially lower than for patients treated with nephrectomy, with similar survival among whites and blacks. In all other demographic and clinical subgroups of patients, whites consistently had a survival advantage over blacks. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with RCC who are white consistently have a survival advantage over those RCC patients who are black, regardless of age, sex, tumor stage or size, histological subtype, or surgical treatment.

Incidence of potentially human papillomavirus-related neoplasms in the United States, 1978 to 2007.

BACKGROUND: Population-based studies comprehensively describing incidence patterns of human papillomavirus (HPV)-related preinvasive and invasive neoplasms prior to widespread HPV vaccination are sparse. METHODS: Age-adjusted incidence rates (IRs), IR ratios (IRRs), and annual percent changes (APCs) in IRs were calculated for potentially HPV-related tumors diagnosed in the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) Program during 1978 through 2007. RESULTS: Overall IRs for preinvasive tumors were significantly higher than for invasive squamous cell tumors of cervix (IRR = 3.42), vulva (IRR = 1.87), and vagina (IRR = 1.19) and significantly lower for adenomatous cervical tumors (IRR = 0.43), and squamous cell tumors of penis (IRR = 0.64), anus (males, IRR = 0.53; females, IRR = 0.14), and head and neck (H&N) (males, IRR = 0.01; females, IRR = 0.02). Incidence of preinvasive squamous tumors of cervix, vagina, and penis rose rapidly over time and decreased for invasive neoplasms. The most rapid increases occurred for preinvasive (males, APC = 16.0; females, APC = 7.3) and invasive anal tumors (males, APC = 3.6; females, APC = 2.3). IR patterns were generally similar among evaluable racial/ethnic groups, with the exception of H&N invasive tumor IRs which increased exclusively among white males. CONCLUSIONS: Contrary to the opposing trends of preinvasive and invasive squamous tumors of cervix, vagina, and penis, preinvasive and invasive anal tumor IRs increased significantly over time by sex, age, and racial/ethnic groups. Successful HPV vaccination programs are needed to measurably reduce incidence of HPV-related neoplasms in the future, particularly for cancer sites with rising incidence rates for which effective screening modalities are limited. Cancer 2013;119:2291-2299. © 2013 American Cancer Society.

Decreasing incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma among most racial groups: SEER-22, 2000-2019.

BACKGROUND: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) incidence was rising in the United States. Previously, using data collected by the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program through 2017, we found that overall incidence had begun to decline, although not in Black and American Indian/Alaska Native (AI/AN) populations. Utilizing expanded SEER data encompassing ~50% of the population, we examined secular trends and demographic differences in HCC incidence through 2019. METHODS: We included cases of HCC diagnosed in adults aged ≥20 years residing in SEER-22 registry areas. We examined case counts, incidence rates (per 100,000 person-years), annual percent changes (APCs), and calendar years when APCs changed significantly. RESULTS: HCC incidence increased from 5.56 in 2000 to 8.89 in 2009 (APC, 5.17%), then rose more slowly during 2009-2015 (APC, 2.28%). After peaking at 10.03 in 2015, incidence fell to 9.20 in 2019 (APC, -2.26%). In Asian/Pacific Islanders (A/PI), the decline began in 2007 and accelerated in 2015 (APCs: 2007-2015, -1.84%; 2015-2019, -5.80%). In 2014, incidence began to fall in the White (APC: 2014-2019, -1.11%) and Hispanic populations (APC: 2014-2019, -1.72%). In 2016, rates began to fall in Black individuals (APC: 2016-2019, -6.05%). In the AI/AN population, incidence was highest in 2017, although the subsequent decline was not statistically significant. In 2019, population-specific rates were: White, 6.94; Black, 10.74; A/PI, 12.11; AI/AN, 14.56; Hispanic, 15.48. CONCLUSION: HCC incidence is now decreasing in most US racial/ethnic populations, including among Black individuals. The onset of decline differed among racial/ethnic groups and wide disparities in HCC rates remain.

Geographic Patterns in U.S. Lung Cancer Mortality and Cigarette Smoking.

BACKGROUND: Despite the success of smoking cessation campaigns, lung cancer remains the leading cause of cancer death in the U.S. Variations in smoking behavior and lung cancer mortality are evident by sex and region. METHODS: Applying geospatial methods to lung cancer mortality data from the National Vital Statistics System and county-level estimates of smoking prevalences from the NCI's Small Area Estimates of Cancer-Related Measures, we evaluated patterns in lung cancer mortality rates (2005-2018) in relation to patterns in ever cigarette smoking prevalences (1997-2003). RESULTS: Overall, ever smoking spatial patterns were generally associated with lung cancer mortality rates, which were elevated in the Appalachian region and lower in the West for both sexes. However, we also observed geographic variation in mortality rates that is not explained by smoking. Using Lee's L statistic for assessing bivariate spatial association, we identified counties where the ever smoking prevalence was low and lung cancer rates were high. We observed a significant cluster of counties (n = 25; P values ranging from 0.001 to 0.04) with low ever smoking prevalence and high mortality rates among females around the Mississippi River region south of St. Louis, Missouri and a similar and smaller cluster among males in Western Mississippi (n = 12; P values ranging from 0.002 to 0.03) that has not been previously described. CONCLUSIONS: Our analyses identified U.S. counties where factors other than smoking may be driving lung cancer mortality. IMPACT: These novel findings highlight areas where investigation of environmental and other risk factors for lung cancer is needed.

Racial variation in tumor stage at diagnosis among Department of Defense beneficiaries.

BACKGROUND: Tumor stage at diagnosis often varies by racial/ethnic group, possibly because of inequitable health care access. Within the Department of Defense (DoD) Military Health System, beneficiaries have equal health care access. The objective of this study was to determine whether tumor stage differed between whites and blacks with breast, cervical, colorectal, and prostate cancers, which have effective screening regimens, based on data from the DoD Automated Cancer Tumor Registry from 1990 to 2003. METHODS: Distributions of tumor stage (localized vs nonlocalized) between whites and blacks in the military were compared stratified by sex, active duty status, and age at diagnosis. Logistic regression was used to further adjust for age, marital status, year of diagnosis, geographic region, military service branch, and tumor grade. Distributions of tumor stage were then compared between the military and general populations. RESULTS: Racial differences in the distribution of stage were significant only among nonactive duty beneficiaries. After adjusting for covariates, earlier stages of breast cancer after age 49 years and prostate cancer after age 64 years were significantly more common among white than black nonactive duty beneficiaries (P < .05), although the absolute difference was minimal for prostate cancer. Racial differences in stage for cervical and colorectal cancers were not significant after adjustment. Compared with the general population, racial differences in the military were similar or were slightly attenuated. CONCLUSIONS: Racial disparities in stage at diagnosis were apparent in the DoD equal-access health care system among older nonactive duty beneficiaries. Socioeconomic status, supplemental insurance, cultural beliefs, and biologic factors may be related to these results.