Mathematical models of Plasmodium vivax transmission: A scoping review.

Plasmodium vivax is one of the most geographically widespread malaria parasites in the world, primarily found across South-East Asia, Latin America, and parts of Africa. One of the significant characteristics of the P. vivax parasite is its ability to remain dormant in the human liver as hypnozoites and subsequently reactivate after the initial infection (i.e. relapse infections). Mathematical modelling approaches have been widely applied to understand P. vivax dynamics and predict the impact of intervention outcomes. Models that capture P. vivax dynamics differ from those that capture P. falciparum dynamics, as they must account for relapses caused by the activation of hypnozoites. In this article, we provide a scoping review of mathematical models that capture P. vivax transmission dynamics published between January 1988 and May 2023. The primary objective of this work is to provide a comprehensive summary of the mathematical models and techniques used to model P. vivax dynamics. In doing so, we aim to assist researchers working on mathematical epidemiology, disease transmission, and other aspects of P. vivax malaria by highlighting best practices in currently published models and highlighting where further model development is required. We categorise P. vivax models according to whether a deterministic or agent-based approach was used. We provide an overview of the different strategies used to incorporate the parasite's biology, use of multiple scales (within-host and population-level), superinfection, immunity, and treatment interventions. In most of the published literature, the rationale for different modelling approaches was driven by the research question at hand. Some models focus on the parasites' complicated biology, while others incorporate simplified assumptions to avoid model complexity. Overall, the existing literature on mathematical models for P. vivax encompasses various aspects of the parasite's dynamics. We recommend that future research should focus on refining how key aspects of P. vivax dynamics are modelled, including spatial heterogeneity in exposure risk and heterogeneity in susceptibility to infection, the accumulation of hypnozoite variation, the interaction between P. falciparum and P. vivax, acquisition of immunity, and recovery under superinfection.

Tafenoquine following G6PD screening versus primaquine for the treatment of vivax malaria in Brazil: A cost-effectiveness analysis using a transmission model.

BACKGROUND: Malaria transmission modelling has demonstrated the potential impact of semiquantitative glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) testing and treatment with single-dose tafenoquine for Plasmodium vivax radical cure but has not investigated the associated costs. This study evaluated the cost-effectiveness of P. vivax treatment with tafenoquine after G6PD testing using a transmission model. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We explored the cost-effectiveness of using tafenoquine after G6PD screening as compared to usual practice (7-day low-dose primaquine (0.5 mg/kg/day) without G6PD screening) in Brazil using a 10-year time horizon with 5% discounting considering 4 scenarios: (1) tafenoquine for adults only assuming 66.7% primaquine treatment adherence; (2) tafenoquine for adults and children aged >2 years assuming 66.7% primaquine adherence; (3) tafenoquine for adults only assuming 90% primaquine adherence; and (4) tafenoquine for adults only assuming 30% primaquine adherence. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were estimated by dividing the incremental costs by the disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted. These were compared to a willingness to pay (WTP) threshold of US$7,800 for Brazil, and one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. All 4 scenarios were cost-effective in the base case analysis using this WTP threshold with ICERs ranging from US$154 to US$1,836. One-way sensitivity analyses showed that the results were most sensitive to severity and mortality due to vivax malaria, the lifetime and number of semiquantitative G6PD analysers needed, cost per malaria episode and per G6PD test strips, and life expectancy. All scenarios had a 100% likelihood of being cost-effective at the WTP threshold. The main limitations of this study are due to parameter uncertainty around our cost estimates for low transmission settings, the costs of G6PD screening, and the severity of vivax malaria. CONCLUSIONS: In our modelling study that incorporated impact on transmission, tafenoquine prescribed after a semiquantitative G6PD testing was highly likely to be cost-effective in Brazil. These results demonstrate the potential health and economic importance of ensuring safe and effective radical cure.

Adherence to 14-day radical cure for Plasmodium vivax malaria in Papua, Indonesia: a mixed-methods study.

BACKGROUND: Reducing the risk of recurrent Plasmodium vivax malaria is critical for malaria control and elimination. Primaquine (PQ) is the only widely available drug against P. vivax dormant liver stages, but is recommended as a 14-day regimen, which can undermine adherence to a complete course of treatment. METHODS: This is a mixed-methods study to assess socio-cultural factors influencing adherence to a 14-day PQ regimen in a 3-arm, treatment effectiveness trial in Papua, Indonesia. The qualitative strand, consisting of interviews and participant observation was triangulated with a quantitative strand in which trial participants were surveyed using a questionnaire. RESULTS: Trial participants differentiated between two types of malaria: tersiana and tropika, equivalent to P. vivax and Plasmodium falciparum infection, respectively. The perceived severity of both types was similar with 44.0% (267/607) perceiving tersiana vs. 45.1% (274/607) perceiving tropika as more severe. There was no perceived differentiation whether malaria episodes were due to a new infection or relapse; and 71.3% (433/607) acknowledged the possibility of recurrence. Participants were familiar with malaria symptoms and delaying health facility visit by 1-2 days was perceived to increase the likelihood of a positive test. Prior to health facility visits, symptoms were treated with leftover drugs kept at home (40.4%; 245/607) or bought over the counter (17.0%; 103/607). Malaria was considered to be cured with 'blue drugs' (referring to dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine). Conversely, 'brown drugs,' referring to PQ, were not considered malaria medication and instead were perceived as supplements. Adherence to malaria treatment was 71.2% (131/184), in the supervised arm, 56.9% (91/160) in the unsupervised arm and 62.4% (164/263) in the control arm; p = 0.019. Adherence was 47.5% (47/99) among highland Papuans, 51.7% (76/147) among lowland Papuans, and 72.9% (263/361) among non-Papuans; p < 0.001. CONCLUSION: Adherence to malaria treatment was a socio-culturally embedded process during which patients (re-)evaluated the characteristics of the medicines in relation to the course of the illness, their past experiences with illness, and the perceived benefits of the treatment. Structural barriers that hinder the process of patient adherence are crucial to consider in the development and rollout of effective malaria treatment policies.

Modelling mass drug administration strategies for reducing scabies burden in Monrovia, Liberia.

Scabies is a parasitic infestation with high global burden. Mass drug administrations (MDAs) are recommended for communities with a scabies prevalence of >10%. Quantitative analyses are needed to demonstrate the likely effectiveness of MDA recommendations. In this study, we developed an agent-based model of scabies transmission calibrated to demographic and epidemiological data from Monrovia. We used this model to compare the effectiveness of MDA scenarios for achieving scabies elimination and reducing scabies burden, as measured by time until recrudescence following delivery of an MDA and disability-adjusted-life-years (DALYs) averted. Our model showed that three rounds of MDA delivered at six-month intervals and reaching 80% of the population could reduce prevalence below 2% for three years following the final round, before recrudescence. When MDAs were followed by increased treatment uptake, prevalence was maintained below 2% indefinitely. Increasing the number of and coverage of MDA rounds increased the probability of achieving elimination and the number of DALYs averted. Our results suggest that acute reduction of scabies prevalence by MDA can support a transition to improved treatment access. This study demonstrates how modelling can be used to estimate the expected impact of MDAs by projecting future epidemiological dynamics and health gains under alternative scenarios.

Surveillance to achieve malaria elimination in eastern Myanmar: a 7-year observational study.

BACKGROUND: The collection and utilization of surveillance data is essential in monitoring progress towards achieving malaria elimination, in the timely response to increases in malaria case numbers and in the assessment of programme functioning. This paper describes the surveillance activities used by the malaria elimination task force (METF) programme which operates in eastern Myanmar, and provides an analysis of data collected from weekly surveillance, case investigations, and monitoring and evaluation of programme performance. METHODS: This retrospective analysis was conducted using data collected from a network of 1250 malaria posts operational between 2014 and 2021. To investigate changes in data completeness, malaria post performance, malaria case numbers, and the demographic details of malaria cases, summary statistics were used to compare data collected over space and time. RESULTS: In the first 3 years of the METF programme, improvements in data transmission routes resulted in a 18.9% reduction in late reporting, allowing for near real-time analysis of data collected at the malaria posts. In 2020, travel restrictions were in place across Karen State in response to COVID-19, and from February 2021 the military coup in Myanmar resulted in widescale population displacement. However, over that period there has been no decline in malaria post attendance, and the majority of consultations continue to occur within 48 h of fever onset. Case investigations found that 43.8% of cases travelled away from their resident village in the 3 weeks prior to diagnosis and 36.3% reported never using a bed net whilst sleeping in their resident village, which increased to 72.2% when sleeping away from their resident village. Malaria post assessments performed in 82.3% of the METF malaria posts found malaria posts generally performed to a high standard. CONCLUSIONS: Surveillance data collected by the METF programme demonstrate that despite significant changes in the context in which the programme operates, malaria posts have remained accessible and continue to provide early diagnosis and treatment contributing to an 89.3% decrease in Plasmodium falciparum incidence between 2014 and 2021.

Health-related quality of life in individuals with genital herpes: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: There is a significant global burden of herpes simplex virus (HSV) related genital ulcer disease yet little is known about its impact on quality of life. This systematic review aimed to identify studies that quantitatively evaluated the effect of genital herpes on various aspects of health-related quality of life. METHODS: Six databases were searched (MEDLINE, EMBASE, NHS Economic Evaluation Database, Health Technology Assessment, Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects, Web of Science Core Collection) for primary quality of life and economic evaluations of genital herpes from January 1, 2000 to January 7, 2021. Qualitative studies or those without primary data were excluded. Two authors independently extracted data from the publications. The study's registration number with PROSPERO was CRD42021239410. FINDINGS: We identified 26 relevant publications: 19 presented primary quality of life data, and seven were economic evaluations. The primary studies presented a range of condition-specific tools for describing the quality of life in individuals with genital herpes, but only one study used a direct valuation that could be used to generate utility weights. All economic evaluations of HSV infection were from high-income country settings. Most (6 of 7) focused on neonatal HSV infection with utilities adopted from studies prior to 2000. INTERPRETATION: The extant literature on genital herpes-related quality of life is limited and requires updating. We recommend future studies be conducted in geographic- and population- diverse settings, and use preference-based condition-specific or generic-instruments to better inform economic modelling.

Global economic costs due to vivax malaria and the potential impact of its radical cure: A modelling study.

BACKGROUND: In 2017, an estimated 14 million cases of Plasmodium vivax malaria were reported from Asia, Central and South America, and the Horn of Africa. The clinical burden of vivax malaria is largely driven by its ability to form dormant liver stages (hypnozoites) that can reactivate to cause recurrent episodes of malaria. Elimination of both the blood and liver stages of the parasites ("radical cure") is required to achieve a sustained clinical response and prevent ongoing transmission of the parasite. Novel treatment options and point-of-care diagnostics are now available to ensure that radical cure can be administered safely and effectively. We quantified the global economic cost of vivax malaria and estimated the potential cost benefit of a policy of radical cure after testing patients for glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) deficiency. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Estimates of the healthcare provider and household costs due to vivax malaria were collated and combined with national case estimates for 44 endemic countries in 2017. These provider and household costs were compared with those that would be incurred under 2 scenarios for radical cure following G6PD screening: (1) complete adherence following daily supervised primaquine therapy and (2) unsupervised treatment with an assumed 40% effectiveness. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis generated credible intervals (CrIs) for the estimates. Globally, the annual cost of vivax malaria was US$359 million (95% CrI: US$222 to 563 million), attributable to 14.2 million cases of vivax malaria in 2017. From a societal perspective, adopting a policy of G6PD deficiency screening and supervision of primaquine to all eligible patients would prevent 6.1 million cases and reduce the global cost of vivax malaria to US$266 million (95% CrI: US$161 to 415 million), although healthcare provider costs would increase by US$39 million. If perfect adherence could be achieved with a single visit, then the global cost would fall further to US$225 million, equivalent to $135 million in cost savings from the baseline global costs. A policy of unsupervised primaquine reduced the cost to US$342 million (95% CrI: US$209 to 532 million) while preventing 2.1 million cases. Limitations of the study include partial availability of country-level cost data and parameter uncertainty for the proportion of patients prescribed primaquine, patient adherence to a full course of primaquine, and effectiveness of primaquine when unsupervised. CONCLUSIONS: Our modelling study highlights a substantial global economic burden of vivax malaria that could be reduced through investment in safe and effective radical cure achieved by routine screening for G6PD deficiency and supervision of treatment. Novel, low-cost interventions for improving adherence to primaquine to ensure effective radical cure and widespread access to screening for G6PD deficiency will be critical to achieving the timely global elimination of P. vivax.

Tenofovir disoproxil fumarate in pregnancy for prevention of mother to child transmission of hepatitis B in a rural setting on the Thailand-Myanmar border: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

BACKGROUND: Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) is transmitted from mother to child which can be prevented via birth dose vaccine combined with three follow up hepatitis B vaccines, hepatitis B immunoglobulins (HBIG), and maternal antiviral treatment with Tenofovir Disoproxil Fumarate (TDF). This study evaluates the cost effectiveness of six strategies to prevent perinatal HBV transmission in a resource limited setting (RLS) on the Thailand-Myanmar border. METHODS: The cost effectiveness of six strategies was tested by a decision tree model in R. All strategies included birth and follow up vaccinations and compared cost per infection averted against two willingness to pay thresholds: one-half and one gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. Strategies were: 1) Vaccine only, 2) HBIG after rapid diagnostic test (RDT): infants born to HBsAg+ are given HBIG, 3) TDF after RDT: HBsAg+ women are given TDF, 4) TDF after HBeAg test: HBeAg+ women are given TDF, 5) TDF after high HBV DNA: women with HBV DNA > 200,000 are given TDF, 6) HBIG & TDF after high HBV DNA: women with HBV DNA > 200,000 are given TDF and their infants are given HBIG. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted on the cost-effective strategies. RESULTS: Vaccine only was the least costly option with TDF after HBeAg test strategy as the only cost-effective alternative. TDF after HBeAg test had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of US$1062; which would not be considered cost-effective with the lower threshold of one-half GDP per capita. The one-way sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the results were reasonably robust to changes in single parameter values. The PSA showed that TDF after HBeAg test had an 84% likelihood of being cost effective at a willingness to pay threshold of one GDP per capita per infection averted. CONCLUSIONS: We found that TDF after HBeAg test has the potential to be cost-effective if TDF proves effective locally to prevent perinatal HBV transmission. The cost of TDF treatment and reliability of the RDT could be barriers to implementing this strategy. While TDF after RDT may be a more feasible strategy to implement in RLS, TDF after HBeAg test is a less costly option.

Longitudinal trends in malaria testing rates in the face of elimination in eastern Myanmar: a 7-year observational study.

BACKGROUND: Providing at-risk communities with uninterrupted access to early diagnosis and treatment is a key component in reducing malaria transmission and achieving elimination. As programmes approach malaria elimination targets it is critical that each case is tested and treated early, which may present a challenge when the burden of malaria is reduced. In this paper we investigate whether malaria testing rates decline over time and assess the impacts of integrating malaria and non-malaria services on testing rates in the malaria elimination task force (METF) programme in the Kayin state of Myanmar. METHODS: A retrospective analysis was conducted using weekly collected data on testing rates from a network of more than 1200 malaria posts during the period from 2014 to 2020. To determine whether monthly testing rates changed over the years of programme operations, and whether integrating malaria and non-malaria services impacted these testing rates, we fitted negative binomial mixed-effects regression models to aggregate monthly data, accounting for malaria seasonal variation. RESULTS: In the first year of malaria post operation, testing rates declined, correlating with a decline in attendance by people from outside the malaria post catchment area, but then remained fairly constant (the Rate Ratio (RR) for 2nd versus 1st year open ranged from 0.68 to 0.84 across the four townships included in the analysis, the RR for 3rd to 6th year versus 1st year open were similar, ranging from 0.59-0.78). The implementation of a training programme, which was intended to expand the role of the malaria post workers, had minimal impact on testing rates up to 24 months after training was delivered (RR for integrated versus malaria-only services ranged from 1.00 to 1.07 across METF townships). CONCLUSION: Despite the decline in malaria incidence from 2014 to 2020, there has been no decline in the malaria testing rate in the METF programme after the establishment of the complete malaria post network in 2016. While the integration of malaria posts with other health services provides benefits to the population, our evaluation questions the necessity of integrated services in maintaining malaria testing rates in areas approaching elimination of malaria.

Evaluation of the effectiveness of topical repellent distributed by village health volunteer networks against Plasmodium spp. infection in Myanmar: A stepped-wedge cluster randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization has yet to endorse deployment of topical repellents for malaria prevention as part of public health campaigns. We aimed to quantify the effectiveness of repellent distributed by the village health volunteer (VHV) network in the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) in reducing malaria in order to advance regional malaria elimination. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Between April 2015 and June 2016, a 15-month stepped-wedge cluster randomised trial was conducted in 116 villages in Myanmar (stepped monthly in blocks) to test the effectiveness of 12% N,N-diethylbenzamide w/w cream distributed by VHVs, on Plasmodium spp. infection. The median age of participants was 18 years, approximately half were female, and the majority were either village residents (46%) or forest dwellers (40%). No adverse events were reported during the study. Generalised linear mixed modelling estimated the effect of repellent on infection detected by rapid diagnostic test (RDT) (primary outcome) and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) (secondary outcome). Overall Plasmodium infection detected by RDT was low (0.16%; 50/32,194), but infection detected by PCR was higher (3%; 419/13,157). There was no significant protection against RDT-detectable infection (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 0.25, 95% CI 0.004-15.2, p = 0.512). In Plasmodium-species-specific analyses, repellent protected against PCR-detectable P. falciparum (adjusted relative risk ratio [ARRR] = 0.67, 95% CI 0.47-0.95, p = 0.026), but not P. vivax infection (ARRR = 1.41, 95% CI 0.80-2.47, p = 0.233). Repellent effects were similar when delayed effects were modelled, across risk groups, and regardless of village-level and temporal heterogeneity in malaria prevalence. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was US$256 per PCR-detectable infection averted. Study limitations were a lower than expected Plasmodium spp. infection rate and potential geographic dilution of the intervention. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we observed apparent protection against new infections associated with the large-scale distribution of repellent by VHVs. Incorporation of repellent into national strategies, particularly in areas where bed nets are less effective, may contribute to the interruption of malaria transmission. Further studies are warranted across different transmission settings and populations, from the GMS and beyond, to inform WHO public health policy on the deployment of topical repellents for malaria prevention. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Australian and New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ACTRN12616001434482).

Short-course primaquine for the radical cure of Plasmodium vivax malaria: a multicentre, randomised, placebo-controlled non-inferiority trial.

BACKGROUND: Primaquine is the only widely used drug that prevents Plasmodium vivax malaria relapses, but adherence to the standard 14-day regimen is poor. We aimed to assess the efficacy of a shorter course (7 days) of primaquine for radical cure of vivax malaria. METHODS: We did a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, non-inferiority trial in eight health-care clinics (two each in Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Indonesia, and Vietnam). Patients (aged ≥6 months) with normal glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) and presenting with uncomplicated vivax malaria were enrolled. Patients were given standard blood schizontocidal treatment and randomly assigned (2:2:1) to receive 7 days of supervised primaquine (1·0 mg/kg per day), 14 days of supervised primaquine (0·5 mg/kg per day), or placebo. The primary endpoint was the incidence rate of symptomatic P vivax parasitaemia during the 12-month follow-up period, assessed in the intention-to-treat population. A margin of 0·07 recurrences per person-year was used to establish non-inferiority of the 7-day regimen compared with the 14-day regimen. This trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT01814683). FINDINGS: Between July 20, 2014, and Nov 25, 2017, 2336 patients were enrolled. The incidence rate of symptomatic recurrent P vivax malaria was 0·18 (95% CI 0·15 to 0·21) recurrences per person-year for 935 patients in the 7-day primaquine group and 0·16 (0·13 to 0·18) for 937 patients in the 14-day primaquine group, a difference of 0·02 (-0·02 to 0·05, p=0·3405). The incidence rate for 464 patients in the placebo group was 0·96 (95% CI 0·83 to 1·08) recurrences per person-year. Potentially drug-related serious adverse events within 42 days of starting treatment were reported in nine (1·0%) of 935 patients in the 7-day group, one (0·1%) of 937 in the 14-day group and none of 464 in the control arm. Four of the serious adverse events were significant haemolysis (three in the 7-day group and one in the 14-day group). INTERPRETATION: In patients with normal G6PD, 7-day primaquine was well tolerated and non-inferior to 14-day primaquine. The short-course regimen might improve adherence and therefore the effectiveness of primaquine for radical cure of P vivax malaria. FUNDING: UK Department for International Development, UK Medical Research Council, UK National Institute for Health Research, and the Wellcome Trust through the Joint Global Health Trials Scheme (MR/K007424/1) and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1054404).

Malaria morbidity and mortality following introduction of a universal policy of artemisinin-based treatment for malaria in Papua, Indonesia: A longitudinal surveillance study.

BACKGROUND: Malaria control activities can have a disproportionately greater impact on Plasmodium falciparum than on P. vivax in areas where both species are coendemic. We investigated temporal trends in malaria-related morbidity and mortality in Papua, Indonesia, before and after introduction of a universal, artemisinin-based antimalarial treatment strategy for all Plasmodium species. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A prospective, district-wide malariometric surveillance system was established in April 2004 to record all cases of malaria at community clinics and the regional hospital and maintained until December 2013. In March 2006, antimalarial treatment policy was changed to artemisinin combination therapy for uncomplicated malaria and intravenous artesunate for severe malaria due to any Plasmodium species. Over the study period, a total of 418,238 patients presented to the surveillance facilities with malaria. The proportion of patients with malaria requiring admission to hospital fell from 26.9% (7,745/28,789) in the pre-policy change period (April 2004 to March 2006) to 14.0% (4,786/34,117) in the late transition period (April 2008 to December 2009), a difference of -12.9% (95% confidence interval [CI] -13.5% to -12.2%). There was a significant fall in the mortality of patients presenting to the hospital with P. falciparum malaria (0.53% [100/18,965] versus 0.32% [57/17,691]; difference = -0.21% [95% CI -0.34 to -0.07]) but not in patients with P. vivax malaria (0.28% [21/7,545] versus 0.23% [28/12,397]; difference = -0.05% [95% CI -0.20 to 0.09]). Between the same periods, the overall proportion of malaria due to P. vivax rose from 44.1% (30,444/69,098) to 53.3% (29,934/56,125) in the community clinics and from 32.4% (9,325/28,789) to 44.1% (15,035/34,117) at the hospital. After controlling for population growth and changes in treatment-seeking behaviour, the incidence of P. falciparum malaria fell from 511 to 249 per 1,000 person-years (py) (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 0.49 [95% CI 0.48-0.49]), whereas the incidence of P. vivax malaria fell from 331 to 239 per 1,000 py (IRR = 0.72 [95% CI 0.71-0.73]). The main limitations of our study were possible confounding from changes in healthcare provision, a growing population, and significant shifts in treatment-seeking behaviour following implementation of a new antimalarial policy. CONCLUSIONS: In this area with high levels of antimalarial drug resistance, adoption of a universal policy of efficacious artemisinin-based therapy for malaria infections due to any Plasmodium species was associated with a significant reduction in total malaria-attributable morbidity and mortality. The burden of P. falciparum malaria was reduced to a greater extent than that of P. vivax malaria. In coendemic regions, the timely elimination of malaria will require that safe and effective radical cure of both the blood and liver stages of the parasite is widely available for all patients at risk of malaria.

Provider and household costs of Plasmodium vivax malaria episodes: a multicountry comparative analysis of primary trial data.

OBJECTIVE: To determine household and health-care provider costs associated with Plasmodium vivax infection across a range of endemic settings. METHODS: We collected cost data alongside three multicentre clinical trials of P. vivax treatment in Afghanistan, Brazil, Colombia, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Philippines, Peru, Thailand and Viet Nam conducted between April 2014 to December 2017. We derived household costs from trial participant surveys administered at enrolment and again 2 weeks later to determine the costs of treatment and transportation, and the number of days that patients and their household caregivers were unable to undertake their usual activities. We determined costs of routine care by health-care providers by micro-costing the resources used to diagnose and treat P. vivax at the study sites. FINDINGS: The mean total household costs ranged from 8.7 United States dollars (US$; standard deviation, SD: 4.3) in Afghanistan to US$ 254.7 (SD: 148.4) in Colombia. Across all countries, productivity losses were the largest household cost component, resulting in mean indirect costs ranging from US$ 5.3 (SD: 3.0) to US$ 220.8 (SD: 158.40). The range of health-care provider costs for routine care was US$ 3.6-6.6. The cost of administering a glucose-6-phosphate-dehydrogenase rapid diagnostic test, ranged from US$ 0.9 to 13.5, consistently lower than the costs of the widely-used fluorescent spot test (US$ 6.3 to 17.4). CONCLUSION: An episode of P. vivax malaria results in high costs to households. The costs of diagnosing and treating P. vivax are important inputs for future cost-effectiveness analyses to ensure optimal allocation of resources for malaria elimination.

Challenges for achieving safe and effective radical cure of Plasmodium vivax: a round table discussion of the APMEN Vivax Working Group.

The delivery of safe and effective radical cure for Plasmodium vivax is one of the greatest challenges for achieving malaria elimination from the Asia-Pacific by 2030. During the annual meeting of the Asia Pacific Malaria Elimination Network Vivax Working Group in October 2016, a round table discussion was held to discuss the programmatic issues hindering the widespread use of primaquine (PQ) radical cure. Participants included 73 representatives from 16 partner countries and 33 institutional partners and other research institutes. In this meeting report, the key discussion points are presented and grouped into five themes: (i) current barriers for glucose-6-phosphate deficiency (G6PD) testing prior to PQ radical cure, (ii) necessary properties of G6PD tests for wide scale deployment, (iii) the promotion of G6PD testing, (iv) improving adherence to PQ regimens and (v) the challenges for future tafenoquine (TQ) roll out. Robust point of care (PoC) G6PD tests are needed, which are suitable and cost-effective for clinical settings with limited infrastructure. An affordable and competitive test price is needed, accompanied by sustainable funding for the product with appropriate training of healthcare staff, and robust quality control and assurance processes. In the absence of quantitative PoC G6PD tests, G6PD status can be gauged with qualitative diagnostics, however none of the available tests is currently sensitive enough to guide TQ treatment. TQ introduction will require overcoming additional challenges including the management of severely and intermediately G6PD deficient individuals. Robust strategies are needed to ensure that effective treatment practices can be deployed widely, and these should ensure that the caveats are outweighed by  the benefits of radical cure for both the patients and the community. Widespread access to quality controlled G6PD testing will be critical.

Strategies for the prevention of perinatal hepatitis B transmission in a marginalized population on the Thailand-Myanmar border: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

BACKGROUND: Data on the cost effectiveness of hepatitis B virus (HBV) screening and vaccination strategies for prevention of vertical transmission of HBV in resource limited settings is sparse. METHODS: A decision tree model of HBV prevention strategies utilised data from a cohort of 7071 pregnant women on the Thailand-Myanmar border using a provider perspective. All options included universal HBV vaccination for newborns in three strategies: (1) universal vaccination alone; (2) universal vaccination with screening of women during antenatal visits with rapid diagnostic test (RDT) plus HBV immune globulin (HBIG) administration to newborns of HBV surface antigen positive women; and (3) universal vaccination with screening of women during antenatal visits plus HBIG administration to newborns of women testing HBV e antigen positive by confirmatory test. At the time of the study, the HBIG after confirmatory test strategy was used. The costs in United States Dollars (US$), infections averted and incremental cost effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated and sensitivity analyses were conducted. A willingness to pay threshold of US$1200 was used. RESULTS: The universal HBV vaccination was the least costly option at US$4.33 per woman attending the clinic. The HBIG after (RDT) strategy had an ICER of US$716.78 per infection averted. The HBIG after confirmatory test strategy was not cost-effective due to extended dominance. The one-way sensitivity analysis showed that while the transmission parameters and cost of HBIG had the biggest impact on outcomes, the HBIG after confirmatory test only became a cost-effective option when a low test cost was used or a high HBIG cost was used. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that HBIG after RDT had an 87% likelihood of being cost-effective as compared to vaccination only at a willingness to pay threshold of US$1200. CONCLUSIONS: HBIG following confirmatory test is not a cost-effective strategy for preventing vertical transmission of HBV in the Thailand-Myanmar border population. By switching to HBIG following rapid diagnostic test, perinatal infections will be reduced by nearly one third. This strategy may be applicable to similar settings for marginalized populations where the confirmatory test is not logistically possible.

Treatment-seeking behaviour and associated costs for malaria in Papua, Indonesia.

BACKGROUND: Malaria remains a significant public health issue in Eastern Indonesia, where multidrug resistant Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax are highly prevalent. The objective of this study was to describe treatment-seeking behaviour and household costs prior to a change to a unified treatment policy of dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine in Mimika district, Papua province in 2006. METHODS: In 2005 a randomized cross-sectional household survey was conducted to collect data on demographics, socio-economic status (SES), treatment-seeking, case management, and household costs. Information on the cost of illness was also collected from patients exiting health facilities, in order to compare the cost of episodes diagnosed as P. vivax compared with those diagnosed as P. falciparum. RESULTS: 825 households were included in the survey. Of the 764 individuals who sought treatment for fever outside the home in the last month, 46% (349/764) went to a public health facility. Of the 894 reported visits to healthcare providers, 48% (433) resulted in a blood test, of which 78% (337) were reportedly positive. Only 10% (17/177) of individuals who reported testing positive for P. falciparum or mixed infection received the first-line treatment of chloroquine with SP, and 38% (61/159) of those with a diagnosis of P. vivax reportedly received the first-line treatment of chloroquine and primaquine. Overall, public facilities were more likely to prescribe the correct prevailing first-line drug combinations than private providers (OR = 3.77 [95% CI 2.31-6.14], p < 0.001). The mean cost to the household of an episode of P. vivax was similar to the cost of P. falciparum [US$44.50 (SD: 46.23) vs US$48.58 (SD: 64.65)]. CONCLUSIONS: Private providers were a popular source of treatment for malaria, but adherence to the national guidelines was low and the economic burden of malaria for both P. falciparum and P. vivax infections was substantial. Engagement with the private sector is needed to ensure that patients have access to affordable good quality, effective diagnostics and anti-malarials for both P. falciparum and P. vivax.

Dynamic Transmission Economic Evaluation of Infectious Disease Interventions in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Systematic Literature Review.

Economic evaluation using dynamic transmission models is important for capturing the indirect effects of infectious disease interventions. We examine the use of these methods in low- and middle-income countries, where infectious diseases constitute a major burden. This review is comprised of two parts: (1) a summary of dynamic transmission economic evaluations across all disease areas published between 2011 and mid-2014 and (2) an in-depth review of mosquito-borne disease studies focusing on health economic methods and reporting. Studies were identified through a systematic search of the MEDLINE database and supplemented by reference list screening. Fifty-seven studies were eligible for inclusion in the all-disease review. The most common subject disease was HIV/AIDS, followed by malaria. A diverse range of modelling methods, outcome metrics and sensitivity analyses were used, indicating little standardisation. Seventeen studies were included in the mosquito-borne disease review. With notable exceptions, most studies did not employ economic evaluation methods beyond calculating a cost-effectiveness ratio or net benefit. Many did not adhere to health care economic evaluations reporting guidelines, particularly with respect to full model reporting and uncertainty analysis. We present a summary of the state-of-the-art and offer recommendations for improved implementation and reporting of health economic methods in this crossover discipline.

The challenges of introducing routine G6PD testing into radical cure: a workshop report.

The only currently available drug that effectively removes malaria hypnozoites from the human host is primaquine. The use of 8-aminoquinolines is hampered by haemolytic side effects in glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) deficient individuals. Recently a number of qualitative and a quantitative rapid diagnostic test (RDT) format have been developed that provide an alternative to the current standard G6PD activity assays. The WHO has recently recommended routine testing of G6PD status prior to primaquine radical cure whenever possible. A workshop was held in the Philippines in early 2015 to discuss key challenges and knowledge gaps that hinder the introduction of routine G6PD testing. Two point-of-care (PoC) test formats for the measurement of G6PD activity are currently available: qualitative tests comparable to malaria RDT as well as biosensors that provide a quantitative reading. Qualitative G6PD PoC tests provide a binomial test result, are easy to use and some products are comparable in price to the widely used fluorescent spot test. Qualitative test results can accurately classify hemizygous males, heterozygous females, but may misclassify females with intermediate G6PD activity. Biosensors provide a more complex quantitative readout and are better suited to identify heterozygous females. While associated with higher costs per sample tested biosensors have the potential for broader use in other scenarios where knowledge of G6PD activity is relevant as well. The introduction of routine G6PD testing is associated with additional costs on top of routine treatment that will vary by setting and will need to be assessed prior to test introduction. Reliable G6PD PoC tests have the potential to play an essential role in future malaria elimination programmes, however require an improved understanding on how to best integrate routine G6PD testing into different health settings.

Exercise for depression in elderly residents of care homes: a cluster-randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Depression is common and is associated with poor outcomes among elderly care-home residents. Exercise is a promising low-risk intervention for depression in this population. We tested the hypothesis that a moderate intensity exercise programme would reduce the burden of depressive symptoms in residents of care homes. METHODS: We did a cluster-randomised controlled trial in care homes in two regions in England; northeast London, and Coventry and Warwickshire. Residents aged 65 years or older were eligible for inclusion. A statistician independent of the study randomised each home (1 to 1·5 ratio, stratified by location, minimised by type of home provider [local authority, voluntary, private and care home, private and nursing home] and size of home [<32 or ≥32 residents]) into intervention and control groups. The intervention package included depression awareness training for care-home staff, 45 min physiotherapist-led group exercise sessions for residents (delivered twice weekly), and a whole home component designed to encourage more physical activity in daily life. The control consisted of only the depression awareness training. Researchers collecting follow-up data from individual participants and the participants themselves were inevitably aware of home randomisation because of the physiotherapists' activities within the home. A researcher masked to study allocation coded NHS routine data. The primary outcome was number of depressive symptoms on the geriatric depression scale-15 (GDS-15). Follow-up was for 12 months. This trial is registered with ISRCTN Register, number ISRCTN43769277. FINDINGS: Care homes were randomised between Dec 15, 2008, and April 9, 2010. At randomisation, 891 individuals in 78 care homes (35 intervention, 43 control) had provided baseline data. We delivered 3191 group exercise sessions attended on average by five study participants and five non-study residents. Of residents with a GDS-15 score, 374 of 765 (49%) were depressed at baseline; 484 of 765 (63%) provided 12 month follow-up scores. Overall the GDS-15 score was 0·13 (95% CI -0·33 to 0·60) points higher (worse) at 12 months for the intervention group compared with the control group. Among residents depressed at baseline, GDS-15 score was 0·22 (95% CI -0·52 to 0·95) points higher at 6 months in the intervention group than in the control group. In an end of study cross-sectional analysis, including 132 additional residents joining after randomisation, the odds of being depressed were 0·76 (95% CI 0·53 to 1·09) for the intervention group compared with the control group. INTERPRETATION: This moderately intense exercise programme did not reduce depressive symptoms in residents of care homes. In this frail population, alternative strategies to manage psychological symptoms are required. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment.

A Systematic Review of Methods for Estimating Productivity Losses due to Illness or Caregiving in Low- and Middle-Income Countries.

BACKGROUND: Productivity losses are often included in costing studies and economic evaluations to provide a comprehensive understanding of the economic burden of disease. Global guidance on estimating productivity losses is sparse, especially for low-and middle-income countries (LMICs) where informal and unpaid work remains dominant. This study aims to describe current practices for valuing productivity losses in LMICs. METHODS: We performed a systematic review of studies published before April 2022 using three databases, including PubMed, Cochrane Library and Web of Science Core Collection. We included any costing or economic evaluation study conducted in a LMIC that provided methodological details on how the monetary value for productivity losses was estimated. Two reviewers independently screened articles for inclusion, extracted data and assessed the quality of the studies. RESULTS: A total of 281 articles were included. While most studies did not specify the overall approach used to measure and value productivity losses (58%), the human capital approach was the most frequently used approach to measure productivity losses when this was clearly stated (39%). The most common methods to estimate a monetary value for productivity losses were market wages (51%), self-reported wages (28%) and macroeconomic measures (15%). CONCLUSION: Reporting standards for productivity losses in LMIC settings have room for improvement. While market wages were the most frequently used method to estimate the monetary value of productivity losses, this relies on context-specific data availability. Until a consensus is reached on if, when and how to include productivity losses in costing and economic evaluation studies, future studies could include a sensitivity analysis to explore the impact of different methods for estimating the monetary value of productivity losses.