Agreement and predictive value of the Rockwood Clinical Frailty Scale at emergency department triage.

AIM: To determine the agreement and predictive value of emergency department (ED) triage nurse scoring of frailty using the Rockwood Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) when compared with inpatient medical assessment using the same scale. METHODS: Prospective, dual-centre UK-based study over a 1-year period (1 April 2017 to 31 March 2018) of CFS recorded digitally at nursing triage on ED arrival and on hospital admission by a medical doctor. Inclusion criteria were emergency medical admission in those aged ≥65 staying at least one night in hospital with a CFS completed in both ED and at hospital admission. Agreement between ED triage nurse and inpatient hospital physician was assessed using a weighted Kappa statistic and Spearman's correlation coefficient. The ability of the ED to diagnose frailty (defined by a CFS ≥5) was assessed using sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV) and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. At both time points the ability of the CFS to predict inpatient mortality was also assessed. RESULTS: From 29 211 admissions aged ≥65 who stayed at least one night in hospital, 12 385 (42.3%) were referred from the ED. Of the ED referrals, 8568 cases (69.2%) were included with paired CFS performed. Median age was 84 (IQR 77 to 89) with an inpatient mortality of 6%. Median CFS in ED was 4 (3 to 5) and on hospital admission 5 (4 to 6). Agreement between the ED CFS and admission CFS was weak (Kappa 0.21, 95% CI 0.19 to 0.22, rs 0.366). The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.67 (95% CI 0.66 to 0.68) for the ED CFS ability to predict an admission CFS ≥5. To predict inpatient mortality the ED CFS AUC was 0.56 (0.53 to 0.59) and admission CFS AUC 0.70 (0.68 to 0.73). CONCLUSION: Agreement between ED CFS and inpatient CFS was found to be weak. In addition the ability of ED CFS to predict clinically important outcomes was limited. NPV and PPV for ED CFS cut-off value of ≥5 were found to be low. Further work is required on the feasibility, clinical impact and appropriate tools for screening of frailty in EDs.

Validation of the National Emergency Department Overcrowding Score (NEDOCS) in a UK non-specialist emergency department.

INTRODUCTION: Emergency department (ED) crowding has significant adverse consequences, however, there is no widely accepted tool to measure it. This study validated the National Emergency Department Overcrowding score (NEDOCS) (range 0-200 points), which uses routinely collected ED data. METHODS: This prospective single-centre study sampled data during four periods of 2018. The outcome against which NEDOCS performance was assessed was a composite of clinician opinion of crowding (physician and nurse in charge). Area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) and calibration plots were produced. Six-hour stratified sampling was added to adjust for temporal correlation of clinician opinion. Staff inter-rater agreement and NEDOCS association with opinion of risk, safety and staffing levels were collected. RESULTS: From 905 sampled hours, 448 paired observations were obtained, with the ED deemed crowded 18.5% of the time. Inter-rater agreement between staff was moderate (weighted kappa 0.57 (95% CI 0.56 to 0.60)). AUROC for NEDOCS was 0.81 (95% CI 0.77 to 0.86). Adjusted for temporal correlation, AUROC was 0.80 (95% CI 0.73 to 0.88). At a cut-off of 100 points sensitivity was 75.9% (95% CI 65.3% to 84.6%), specificity 72.1% (95% CI 67.1% to 76.6%), positive predictive value 38.2% (95% CI 30.7% to 46.1%) and negative predictive value 92.9% (95% CI 89.3% to 95.6%). NEDOCS underpredicted clinical opinion on Calibration assessment, only partially correcting with intercept updating. For perceived risk of harm, safety and insufficient staffing, NEDOCS AUROCs were 0.71 (95% CI 0.61 to 0.82), 0.71 (95% CI 0.63 to 0.80) and 0.70 (95% CI 0.64 to 0.76), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: NEDOCS demonstrated good discriminatory power for clinical perception of crowding. Prior to implementation, determining individual unit ED cut-off point(s) would be important as published thresholds may not be generalisable. Future studies could explore refinement of existing variables or addition of new variables, including acute physiological data, which may improve performance.

The epidemiology of adults with severe sepsis and septic shock in Scottish emergency departments.

BACKGROUND: The Surviving Sepsis Campaign (SSC) promotes a bundle approach to the care of septic patients to improve outcome. Some have questioned the capability of delivering the bundle in emergency departments (EDs). The authors report the epidemiology and 6 h bundle compliance of patients with severe sepsis/septic shock presenting to Scottish EDs. METHODS: Analysis of the previously reported Scottish Trauma Audit Group sepsis database was performed including 20 mainland Scottish EDs. A total of 308,910 attendances were screened (between 2 March and 31 May 2009), and 5285 of 27,046 patients were identified after case note review and included on the database. This analysis includes patients who had severe sepsis/septic shock before leaving the ED. Epidemiological, severity of illness criteria, and ED management data were analysed. RESULTS: 626 patients (median age 73; M/F ratio 1:1; 637 presentations) met entrance criteria. The median number of cases per site was 16 (range 3-103). 561 (88.1%) patients arrived by ambulance. The most common source of infection was the respiratory tract (n=411, 64.5%) The most common physiological derangements were heart rate (n=523, 82.1%), respiratory rate (n=452, 71%) and white cell count (n=432, 67.8%). The median hospital stay was 9 days (IQR 4-17 days). 201 (31.6%) patients were admitted to critical care within 2 days, 130 (20.4%) directly from the ED. 180 patients (28.3%) died. There was poor compliance with all aspect of the SSC resuscitation bundle. CONCLUSIONS: Sepsis presentations are of variable frequency but have typical epidemiology and clinical outcomes. SSC bundle resuscitation uptake is poor in Scottish EDs.

Agreement and validity of electronic patient self-triage (eTriage) with nurse triage in two UK emergency departments: a retrospective study.

BACKGROUND: Triage and redirection of patients to alternative care providers is one tool used to overcome the growing issue of crowding in emergency departments (EDs). Electronic patient self-triage (eTriage) may reduce waiting times and required face-to-face contact. There are limited studies into its efficacy, accuracy and validity in an ED setting. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to assess the agreement and validity of eTriage with a reference standard of nurse face-to-face triage. A secondary aim was to assess the ability of both systems to predict high and low acuity outcomes. DESIGN: This was a retrospective study conducted over 8 months in two UK hospitals. Inclusion criteria were all ambulatory patients aged ≥18. All patients completed an eTriage and nurse-led triage using the Manchester Triage System (MTS). MAIN RESULTS: During the study period, 43 788 adult patients attended one of the two ED sites and 26 757 used eTriage. A total of 1424 patient episodes had no recorded MTS and were excluded from the study leaving 25 333 paired triages for the final cohort. Agreement between eTriage and nurse triage was low with a weighted Kappa coefficient of 0.14 (95% CI, 0.14-0.15) with an associated weak positive correlation (rs 0.321). Level of undertriage by eTriage compared with nurse triage was 10.1%, and overtriage was 59.2%. The sensitivity for prediction of high acuity outcomes was 88.5% (95% CI, 77.9-95.3%) for eTriage and 53.8% (95% CI 41.1-66.0%) for nurse MTS. The specificity for predicting low risk patients was 88.5% (95% CI, 87.4-89.5%) for eTriage and 80.6% (95% CI, 79.3-81.8%) for nurse MTS. CONCLUSION: Agreement and correlation of eTriage with the reference standard of nurse MTS was low; patients using eTriage tended to over triage when compared to the triage nurse. eTriage had a higher sensitivity for high acuity presentations and demonstrated similar specificity for low acuity presentations when compared to triage nurse MTS. Further work is necessary to validate eTriage as a potential tool for safe redirection of ED attenders to alternative care providers.

An association between male homosexuality and reproductive success.

The existence of homosexuality in humans poses a problem for evolutionary theory. Exclusive male homosexuality has a catastrophic effect on reproduction and yet inherited factors appear to contribute to it. Previous attempts to resolve this conundrum are inconsistent with aspects of evolutionary theory. Additional limitations are as follows. Until recently, accounts of homosexuality have paid little attention to the probable existence of adaptive bisexuality in ancestral populations, from which further variations in sexual orientation may have evolved. Secondly, previous explanations have concentrated on the ancestral environment of two to three million years ago as the determinant of modern sexuality, when more recent influences are likely to have had considerable impact. I argue in favour of a longitudinal rather than cross-sectional model of the ancestral environment. Thirdly, they have often ignored the possibility of variable phenotypic expression, whereby those individuals with a genetic propensity for homosexuality exhibit different and adaptive qualities on most other occasions. It has been demonstrated in previous studies that homosexual men have superior linguistic skills compared to heterosexual men. This may be the result of an adaptive feminising effect on the male brain and apply to many practising heterosexuals. Other adaptations to the recent ancestral environment may include enhanced empathy, fine motor skills and impulse control. By drawing together these contributing factors an evolutionary basis for homosexuality can be demonstrated.