External validation of the ITA.LI.CA prognostic system for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: A multicenter cohort study.

Several staging systems for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) have been developed. The Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer staging system is considered the best in predicting survival, although limitations have emerged. Recently, the Italian Liver Cancer (ITA.LI.CA) prognostic system, integrating ITA.LI.CA tumor staging (stages 0, A, B1-3, C) with the Child-Turcotte-Pugh score, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, and alpha-fetoprotein with a strong ability to predict survival, was proposed. The aim of our study was to provide an external validation of the ITA.LI.CA system in an independent real-life occidental cohort of HCCs. From September 2008 to April 2016, 1,508 patients with cirrhosis and incident HCC were consecutively enrolled in 27 Italian institutions. Clinical, tumor, and treatment-related variables were collected, and patients were stratified according to scores of the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer system, ITA.LI.CA prognostic system, Hong Kong Liver Cancer system, Cancer of the Liver Italian Program, Japanese Integrated System, and model to estimate survival in ambulatory patients with hepatocellular carcinoma. Harrell's C-index, Akaike information criterion, and likelihood-ratio test were used to compare the predictive ability of the different systems. A subgroup analysis for treatment category (curative versus palliative) was performed. Median follow-up was 44 months (interquartile range, 23-63 months), and median overall survival was 34 months (interquartile range, 13-82 months). Median age was 71 years, and patients were mainly male individuals and hepatitis C virus carriers. According to ITA.LI.CA tumor staging, 246 patients were in stage 0, 472 were in stage A, 657 were in stages B1/3, and 133 were in stage C. The ITA.LI.CA prognostic system showed the best discriminatory ability (C-index = 0.77) and monotonicity of gradients compared to other systems, and its superiority was also confirmed after stratification for treatment strategy. CONCLUSION: This is the first study that independently validated the ITA.LI.CA prognostic system in a large cohort of Western patients with incident HCCs. The ITA.LI.CA system performed better than other multidimensional prognostic systems, even after stratification by curative or palliative treatment. This new system appears to be particularly useful for predicting individual HCC prognosis in clinical practice. (Hepatology 2018;67:2215-2225).

Bacterial Infections Change Natural History of Cirrhosis Irrespective of Liver Disease Severity.

OBJECTIVES: We assessed the prognostic significance of infections in relation to current prognostic scores and explored if infection could be considered per se a distinct clinical stage in the natural history of cirrhosis. METHODS: We included consecutive patients with cirrhosis admitted to a tertiary referral liver unit for at least 48 h over a 2-year period. Diagnosis of infection was based on positive cultures or strict established criteria. We used competing risk analysis and propensity score matching for data analysis. RESULTS: 501 patients (63% male, 48% alcoholic liver disease, median Model of End-stage Liver Disease (MELD)=17) underwent 781 admissions over the study period. Portal hypertensive bleeding and complicated ascites were the commonest reasons of admission. The incidence of proven bacterial infection was 25.6% (60% community acquired and 40% nosocomial). Survival rates at 3, 6, 12, and 30 months were 83%, 77%, 71%, and 62% in patients without diagnosis of infection, vs. 50%, 46%, 41%, and 34% in patients with diagnosis of infection. Overall survival was independently associated with MELD score (hazards ratio (HR) 1.099), intensive care (ITU) stay (HR 1.967) and bacterial infection (HR 2.226). Bacterial infection was an independent predictor of survival even when patients who died within the first 30 days were excluded from the analysis in Cox regression (HR 2.013) and competing risk Cox models in all patients (HR 1.46) and propensity risk score-matched infected and non-infected patients (HR 1.67). CONCLUSIONS: Infection most likely represents a distinct prognostic stage of cirrhosis, which affects survival irrespective of disease severity, even after recovery from the infective episode.

Management and prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma in the elderly: Results of an in-field multicenter cohort study.

AIMS: This multicentre cohort study evaluated the role of ageing on clinical characteristics, treatment allocation and outcome of new hepatocellular carcinomas (HCCs), in clinical practice. MATERIAL & METHODS: From September 2008, 541 patients >70 years old (elderly group), and 527 ≤70 years old (non-elderly group) with newly diagnosed HCC were consecutively enrolled in 30 Italian centres. Differences in clinical characteristics and treatment allocation between groups were described by a multivariable logistic regression model measuring the inverse probability weight to meet the elderly group. Survival differences were measured by unadjusted and adjusted (by inverse probability weight) survival analysis. RESULTS: Elderly patients were mainly females, hepatitis C virus infected and with better conserved liver function (P<.001). At presentation, HCC median size was similar in both groups while, in youngers, HCC was more frequently multinodular (P=.001), and associated with neoplastic thrombosis (P=.009). Adjusted survival analysis showed that age did not predict short-mid-term survival (within 24 months), while it was a significant independent predictor of long-term survival. Moreover, age had a significant long-term survival impact mainly on early HCC stages (Barcelona Clinic for Liver Cancer [BCLC] 0-A), its impact on BCLC B stage was lower, while it was negligible for advanced-terminal stages. CONCLUSIONS: Age per se does not impact on short-mid-term prognosis (≤24 months) of HCC patients, and should not represent a limitation to its management.

The impact of infection by multidrug-resistant agents in patients with cirrhosis. A multicenter prospective study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Bacterial strains resistant to antibiotics are a serious clinical challenge. We assessed the antibiotic susceptibility of bacteria isolated from infections in patients with cirrhosis by a multicentre investigation. RESULTS: Three hundred and thirteen culture-positive infections (173 community acquired [CA] and 140 hospital acquired [HA]) were identified in 308 patients. Urinary tract infections, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis and bacteremias were the most frequent. Quinolone-resistant Gram-negative isolates were 48%, 44% were extended-spectrum beta-lactamase producers and 9% carbapenem resistant. In 83/313 culture-positive infections (27%), multidrug-resistant agents (MDRA) were isolated. This prevalence did not differ between CA and HA infections. MDRA were identified in 17 of 37 patients on quinolone prophylaxis, and in 46 of 166 not on prophylaxis (45% vs 27%; P<.03). In 287 cases an empiric antibiotic therapy was undertaken, in 37 (12.9%) this therapy failed. The in-hospital mortality rate of this subset of patients was significantly higher compared to patients who received an effective broad(er)-spectrum therapy (P=.038). During a 3-month follow-up, 56/203 culture-positive patients (27.6%) died, 24/63 who have had MDRA-related infections (38%) and 32/140 who have had antibiotic-susceptible infections (22.8%) (P=.025). Multivariate analysis disclosed MDRA infection, age, hepatocellular carcinoma, bilirubin, international normalized ratio and the occurrence of portal hypertension-related complications independent predictors of death. CONCLUSIONS: Infection by MDRA is frequent in patients with cirrhosis and the prognosis is severe, especially in patients unresponsive to empiric antibiotic therapy.

Trend of improving prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma in clinical practice: an Italian in-field experience.

BACKGROUND: Recent data suggest that outcome of hepatocarcinoma is improving. AIMS: In order to explore whether survival is also increasing in clinical practice, we compared two multicenter independent in-field cohorts of cirrhotics with newly diagnosed HCCs. METHODS: Cohort 1 (C1) consisted of 327 patients enrolled between January and December 1998, and cohort 2 (C2) included 826 patients enrolled between September 2008 and November 2012. Patients were stratified according to Child-Pugh score, MELD score, and HCC staged according to TNM, BCLC systems. RESULTS: At baseline, C2 patients were significantly older, with more frequent comorbidities and better liver function. In C2, HCC was more frequently detected under regular ultrasound surveillance (P < 0.001), BCLC early stages were more frequent, and rates of smaller and uni/paucinodular tumors were significantly higher. Treatment of any type was more frequently offered to C2 patients (P < 0.001). Proportion of patients treated by TACE increased, and radiofrequency ablation was the most used ablative treatment. Survival rate was significantly higher in C2 being C1 and C2 survival at 1-3 years 72-25 and 75-44 %, respectively. Child-Pugh score A, BCLC stage A, single nodule, size ≤ 3 cm, belonging to cohort C2 and treatment per se independently predicted survival. CONCLUSIONS: This in-field study showed a trend on improved HCC outcomes over time, which seems to be mainly due to a better presentation thanks to the wider application of surveillance and increased propensity to treat patients. These encouraging data should support further efforts to implement such approach to HCC in everyday clinical practice.

Adherence to American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases guidelines for the management of hepatocellular carcinoma: results of an Italian field practice multicenter study.

AIM: Adherence to and the applicability of practice guidelines for the management of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in field practice have not been fully addressed. We designed a multicenter field practice prospective study to evaluate the adherence to the 2005 American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases guidelines in Italy. MATERIALS & METHODS: The study began in September 2008 and consecutively enrolled cirrhotic patients with newly diagnosed HCC from 30 local, nonreference centers in Italy. Patients were stratified according to Child-Pugh, the model for end-stage liver disease, tumor-node metastasis, performance status and the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) classifications. The diagnostic and therapeutic strategies adopted in each individual patient were recorded. Statistical analysis was carried out on 536 patients using all of the valuable data. RESULTS: A total of 286 (54.5%) patients were ≥70 years old. Comorbidities, recorded in 397 (74%) patients, were classified as moderate to severe in 170 patients (43%). Overall, 174 (59%) patients with early-stage BCLC were ≥70 years; 104 (35%) of these had moderate-to-severe comorbidities and 54% were under a regular US surveillance program. Diagnosis was performed by computed tomography in 93% of patients, contrast-enhanced ultrasound in 62% and MRI in 17%. In patients with nodules of ≤2 cm, adherence to noninvasive diagnostic criteria was 56%. Adherence to the BCLC classification was shown to be suboptimal overall, particularly regarding allocation to surgical procedures, and a total of 119 patients (40%) with BCLC stage A did not receive curative therapies. CONCLUSIONS: This multicenter survey showed that, in the 'real world', adherence to the both the diagnostic and therapeutic American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases 2005 algorithms was low, particularly in patients with early-stage HCC. Difficulties in applying the algorithms in routine clinical practice and the high prevalence of older patients with relevant comorbidities may account for our findings. Strategies to help improve adherence to international guidelines for HCC in field practice are required.

Renal safety in 3264 HCV patients treated with DAA-based regimens: Results from a large Italian real-life study.

BACKGROUND: Sofosbuvir (SOF)-based regimens have been associated with renal function worsening in HCV patients with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) ≤ 45 ml/min, but further investigations are lacking. AIM: To assess renal safety in a large cohort of DAA-treated HCV patients with any chronic kidney disease (CKD). METHODS: All HCV patients treated with DAA in Lombardy (December 2014-November 2017) with available kidney function tests during and off-treatment were included. RESULTS: Among 3264 patients [65% males, 67% cirrhotics, eGFR 88 (9-264) ml/min], CKD stage was 3 in 9.5% and 4/5 in 0.7%. 79% and 73% patients received SOF and RBV, respectively. During DAA, eGFR declined in CKD-1 (p < 0.0001) and CKD-2 (p = 0.0002) patients, with corresponding rates of CKD stage reduction of 25% and 8%. Conversely, eGFR improved in lower CKD stages (p < 0.0001 in CKD-3a, p = 0.0007 in CKD-3b, p = 0.024 in CKD-4/5), with 33-45% rates of CKD improvement. Changes in eGFR and CKD distribution persisted at SVR. Baseline independent predictors of CKD worsening at EOT and SVR were age (p < 0.0001), higher baseline CKD stages (p < 0.0001) and AH (p = 0.010 and p < 0.0001, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: During DAA, eGFR significantly declined in patients with preserved renal function and improved in those with lower CKD stages, without reverting upon drug discontinuation.

The systemic inflammatory response syndrome in cirrhotic patients: relationship with their in-hospital outcome.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Some evidence suggests that the systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) contributes to the poor outcome of cirrhotic patients. We studied 141 cirrhotic patients consecutively admitted to a tertiary referral centre assessing prevalence of SIRS and its relationship with in-hospital outcome. METHODS: Presence of SIRS was assessed on admission and during hospital stay. Main clinical outcomes were death and development of portal hypertension-related complications. RESULTS: Thirty-nine patients met SIRS criteria. SIRS was present on admission in 20 of 141 patients (14.1%), whereas it occurred during hospital stay in 19 of 121 (15.7%). SIRS was correlated with bacterial infection at admission (p=0.02), jaundice (p=0.011), high serum creatinine levels (p=0.04), high serum bilirubin levels (p=0.002), high international normalized ratio (p=0.046), high model of end-stage liver disease (MELD) score (p=0.001), and high SOFA score (p=0.003). During a follow-up of 14+/-8 days, 16 patients died (11%), 7 developed portal hypertension-related bleeding (5%), 16 hepatic encephalopathy (11%), and 5 hepatorenal syndrome type-1 (3.5%). SIRS was correlated both to death (p<0.001) and to portal hypertension-related complications (p<0.001). On multivariate analysis, SIRS and MELD were independently associated with death. CONCLUSIONS: SIRS frequently occurs in patients with advanced cirrhosis and is associated with a poor outcome.

Management of hepatocellular carcinoma in the elderly.

Mean age of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients has been progressively increasing over the last decades and ageing of these patients is becoming a real challenge in every day clinical practice. Unfortunately, international guidelines on HCC management do not address this problem exhaustively and do not provide any specific recommendation. We carried out a literature search in MEDLINE database for studies reporting on epidemiology, clinical characteristics and treatment outcome of HCC in elderly patients. Available data seem to indicate that in elderly patients the outcome of HCC is mostly influenced by liver function and tumor stage rather than by age and the latter should not influence treatment allocation. Age is not a risk for resection and older patients with resectable HCC and good liver function could gain benefit from surgery. Mild comorbidities do not seem a contraindication for surgery in aged patients. Conversely, major resection in elderly, even when performed in experienced high-volume centres, should be avoided. Both percutaneous ablation and transarterial chemoembolization are not contraindicated in aged patients and safety profile of these procedures is acceptable. Sorafenib is a viable option for advanced HCC in elderly provided that a careful evaluation of concomitant comorbidities, particularly cardiovascular ones, is taken into account. Available data seem to suggest that in either elderly and younger, treatment is a main predictor of outcome. Consequently, a nihilistic attitude of physicians towards under- or no-treatment of aged patients should not be longer justified.

Diastolic dysfunction is associated with poor survival in patients with cirrhosis with transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt.

BACKGROUND: Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) is a treatment for portal hypertension-related complications. Accurate prediction of the outcome of patients treated with TIPS is important, because some patients have very short survival. Diastolic dysfunction is frequently observed in patients with cirrhosis. AIM: To investigate whether or not diastolic dysfunction can predict the outcome after TIPS. METHODS: Echocardiography with Doppler exploration was performed before and 28 days after TIPS insertion in 32 patients with cirrhosis. Several echocardiographic measures, including the early maximal ventricular filling velocity/late filling velocity (E/A) ratio as indicative of diastolic function, as well as laboratory, clinical and demographic variables were evaluated as predictors of survival. RESULTS: Univariate analysis revealed that the presence of diastolic dysfunction observed 28 days after TIPS (E/A ratio 1 survived. CONCLUSIONS: Diastolic dysfunction estimated using E/A ratio is a promising predictor of death in patients with cirrhosis who are treated with TIPS.