The socio-economic determinants of COVID-19: A spatial analysis of German county level data.

The study explores the association of socioeconomic, demographic, and health-related variables at the regional level with COVID-19 related cases and deaths in Germany during the so-called first wave through mid-June 2020. Multivariate spatial models include the 401 counties in Germany to account for regional interrelations and possible spillover effects. The case and death numbers are, for example, significantly positively associated with early cases from the beginning of the epidemic, the average age, the population density and the share of people employed in elderly care. By contrast, they are significantly negatively associated with the share of schoolchildren and children in day care as well as physician density. In addition, significant spillover effects on the case numbers of neighbouring regions were identified for certain variables, with a different sign than the overall effects, giving rise to further future analyses of the regional mechanisms of action of COVID-19 infection. The results complement the knowledge about COVID-19 infection beyond the clinical risk factors discussed so far by a socio-economic perspective at the ecological level.

Can telehealth reduce health care expenditure? A lesson from German health insurance data.

This study analyzes a telemedical program for chronic heart failure in Germany with respect to economic and treatment indicators. The program entails a routine data-based preselection of the insured and specific treatment intensities for low- and high-risk patients. This study complements previous research by considering differentiated end points such as mortality and rehospitalization as well as ambulatory, outpatient, and medication costs to account for potential cost shifts. In addition, different time frames and regional characteristics are dealt with. A difference-in-differences approach accounts for potential self-selection into the voluntary program. Our results challenge the current paradigm of program-induced cost shifting between hospital and ambulatory care. Except for a short-term effect in the lower-risk group, the program is associated with raising hospital admission rates as well as higher costs in all categories, while mortality is significantly reduced. The findings are robust as to various sensitivity checks.

Why do German physicians reject managed care?

BACKGROUND: Approximately 20 years after the launch of managed care (MC) in Germany, the initial dynamics have turned into an MC backlash with a poor image for MC among physicians and the insured. Factors in MC contract rejection by physicians have not previously been studied systematically. OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study is to show that observed physician characteristics explain MC contract rejection in a quantitative model. These econometric findings will be related to suitable political measures to foster physicians' MC acceptance. METHODS: Results are based on 500 completed responses to a survey among practicing physicians in Northern Germany. Physician cooperation, attitudes toward MC, and practice characteristics are addressed. A Heckman approach accounts for potential preselection of physicians by insurers. Econometric findings are complemented by a qualitative analysis of free-text answers. RESULTS: Private patient share, physician age, and number of physicians per practice significantly increase rejection probability, whereas it is decreased by rural location. Qualitatively, administrative burden and loss of professional autonomy are the main reasons for MC refusal. CONCLUSION: Current health policy focuses on institutional measures such as innovation funding to promote MC. Our results show that it may be more effective to turn attention to practicing physicians' preferences as a bottleneck to MC development.

Does managed care reduce health care expenditure? Evidence from spatial panel data.

Similar to, for example, the US, Switzerland or Great Britain the German health care sector has recently undergone a series of reforms towards managed care. These measures are intended to yield both a higher quality of care and cost containment. In our study we ask whether managed care reduces health care expenditure at the market level. We apply a macroeconomic evaluation approach based on a regional panel data set which is as yet unique in the context of managed care. Econometrically, we account for both unobserved heterogeneity and spatial dependence, i.e. regional interrelations in health care. We discuss alternative model specifications and include a range of sensitivity analyses. Our results suggest that in contrast to public perception the share of managed care contracts has a positive impact on pharmaceutical spending, in particular through regional spillover effects.

German physicians' expectations of healthcare management companies: An exploratory study.

Background and aims: Even 20 years after the introduction of managed care (MC) in Germany, many physicians are skeptical of the concept, hindering its acceptance. Methods: Based on multivariate statistical methods this exploratory study examines how so-called management companies, that is, administrative service providers within MC contracts, can increase physicians' acceptance of MC by offering, for example, day-to-day coordination and administrative tasks. Results: As a main empirical result, we find support for this hypothesis, that is, that certain physicians evaluate their MC participation according to its prospective administrative support. Based on this, up to four clusters of physicians can be statistically identified in terms of their preferences regarding MC. Conclusion: As a policy recommendation, we derive from our results that a future focus on the administrative support components of MC is essential to attract certain physician groups to participate in MC.

The effects of health shocks on family status: do financial incentives encourage marriage?

This paper asks whether marriage decisions of unmarried mature couples are driven by the prospect of financial advantages for the later widowed after one partner has suffered a serious health shock. We hypothesize that, in contrast to traditional marriage models, such health shocks may induce unmarried couples to obtain economic benefits, such as survivors' pensions in particular, through marriage in advance of one partner's death. This question has not yet been studied empirically. Hazard models capturing unobserved effects are applied to longitudinal data of the German Socioeconomic Panel. It turns out that the probability of marriage after male partners' health shocks can increase significantly depending on the amount of expected survivors' pensions for the (likely) surviving female partners. In contrast, an increased probability of marriage after health shocks to women (depending on the expected financial benefits to men) was not found. These findings are supported by various robustness checks. Economic and political implications are discussed and the results are placed in an international context.

Overcoming resistance against managed care - insights from a bargaining model.

Recent healthcare reforms have sought to increase efficiency by introducing managed care (MC) while respecting consumer preferences by admitting choice between MC and conventional care. This article proposes an institutional change designed to let German consumers choose between the two settings through directing payments from the Federal Health Fund to social health insurers (SHIs) or to specialized MC organizations (MCOs). To gauge the chance of success of this reform, a game involving a SHI, a MCO, and a representative insured (RI) is analyzed. In a "three-player/three-cake" game the coalitions {SHI, MCO}, {MCO, RI}, and {SHI, RI} can form. Players' possibility to switch between coalitions creates new outside options, causing the conventional bilateral Nash bargaining solution to be replaced by the so-called von Neumann-Morgenstern triple. These triples are compared to the status quo (where the RI has no threat potential) and related to institutional conditions characterizing Germany, the Netherlands, and Switzerland.