Carnivore conservation needs evidence-based livestock protection.

Carnivore predation on livestock often leads people to retaliate. Persecution by humans has contributed strongly to global endangerment of carnivores. Preventing livestock losses would help to achieve three goals common to many human societies: preserve nature, protect animal welfare, and safeguard human livelihoods. Between 2016 and 2018, four independent reviews evaluated >40 years of research on lethal and nonlethal interventions for reducing predation on livestock. From 114 studies, we find a striking conclusion: scarce quantitative comparisons of interventions and scarce comparisons against experimental controls preclude strong inference about the effectiveness of methods. For wise investment of public resources in protecting livestock and carnivores, evidence of effectiveness should be a prerequisite to policy making or large-scale funding of any method or, at a minimum, should be measured during implementation. An appropriate evidence base is needed, and we recommend a coalition of scientists and managers be formed to establish and encourage use of consistent standards in future experimental evaluations.

How effective are interventions to reduce attacks on people from large carnivores? A systematic review protocol.

BACKGROUND: Instances of attacks from large carnivores that lead to human injury or death are increasingly reported worldwide. Ensuring human safety when people and carnivores co-occur is central to minimizing human suffering but is also essential to support sustainable carnivore conservation. Various interventions are available intended to alter either the behavior of large carnivores or people, in order to reduce the likelihood of a risky encounter and an attack. Collated evidence on best practices is still lacking, and this protocol outlines a systematic review of evidence for intervention effectiveness to reduce the risk or severity of direct attacks on humans by large carnivores. Specifically, the review seeks to answer the question: How effective are evaluated interventions in reducing large carnivore attacks on people? METHODS: The bibliographic databases Zoological Record, BIOSIS Citation Index, and Scopus will be searched using a predefined search string. Grey literature will be requested through professional networks, contacts with relevant organizations, and searching selected websites. All returned titles and abstracts will be manually screened using Rayyan.ai. For inclusion, studies should describe the Population, Intervention, Comparator, and Outcome (PICO) of the review research question and be written in English, Spanish, or Swedish. Review papers will be excluded. All records of data coding and extraction are documented in a purposely developed, and priorly piloted, data sheet. Critical appraisal of study validity will be done according to the Collaboration for Environmental Evidence Critical Appraisal Tool prototype version 0.3. Review outcomes will be synthesized in a narrative, and if possible, a quantitative synthesis. The narrative synthesis will describe in text the carnivore population (species, location), context (target object, intervention model), as well as the design and reported results of each study. The quantitative synthesis will include a summary statistic, preferably logarithmic risk ratio, calculated for each original study. A forest plot will be created to visualize study outcomes, as well as judgments of critical appraisal. Provided that enough data is available and that it complies with its assumptions, a meta-regression analysis will be undertaken using metafor package for R software.

The physical environment matters: room effects on online purchase decisions.

Introduction: People as individual consumers are regularly targeted in sustainability campaigns or communications with the hope of enhancing sustainable behavior at an individual level, with subsequent sustainability transformation at a larger societal scale. However, psychological motivation is complex and campaigns need to be based on an understanding for what individual, and contextual, factors support or hinder sustainable behavioral choices. Methods: In a discrete choice experiment, participants made hypothetical online purchases in each of three rooms designed to evoke associations to hedonic, gain, and normative goal frames. Participants were shown a campaign message intended to prime sustainable textile consumption prior to the purchase. For each product (t-shirt or bananas) hedonic (comfort/look), gain (price), and normative (organic/ fairtrade) attributes were varied in an online choice experiment. Results: Preferences for the normative attribute of t-shirts increased in the normative room compared to the room with gain associations. No effect of the rooms with hedonic or gain priming was observed on the choice. Discussion: The study supports the hypothesis that the physical room can enhance goal frame activation and behavioral choice but concludes that such priming effect is sensitive to specificity of the prime.

How effective are interventions to reduce damage to agricultural crops from herbivorous wild birds and mammals? A systematic review protocol.

BACKGROUND: An important conservation challenge is to mitigate negative impacts that wild birds and mammals can have on human practices and livelihoods, and not least on agricultural crops. Technical interventions to limit the number and severity of damages are available, but evaluations of intervention effectiveness are usually limited in scope, and meta-analyses are rare. This protocol describes a systematic review that seeks to answer the following question: How effective are evaluated interventions in reducing damage from herbivorous wild birds and mammals on agricultural crops? METHODS: The literature searches are made in the databases Scopus and Zoological Record. The search string is based on a Population-Intervention-Comparator-Outcome (PICO) formatted research question, and search terms fall within five categories: Wildlife type (Population), Damage object (Population), Counteraction (Intervention), Evaluation (Comparator), and Damage (Outcome). Initial scoping searches informed amendment of the search string. A set of 19 benchmark articles were used to estimate the ability of the scoping search to capture relevant literature. To be eligible for inclusion in the review, original articles should study cases where settings of exposure to interventions (measures implemented to reduce damages on agricultural crops caused by terrestrial birds and mammals) are compared to a control setting without exposure to interventions. Eligible studies will be subject to data extraction, systematically documented in an Excel spreadsheet. Associated risk of bias will be critically appraised for the included articles according to seven criteria: 1. risk of confounding biases, 2. risk of post-intervention selection biases, 3. risk of misclassified comparison biases (observational studies only), 4. risk of performance biases (experimental studies only), 5. risk of detection biases, 6. risk of outcome reporting biases, and 7. risk of outcome assessment biases. The results will be reported in narrative and, if possible, quantitative syntheses. The quantitative synthesis will include a summary statistic calculated based on the data of each study and illustrated graphically in a forest plot. If possible, meta-regression analyses will be conducted.

The importance of structural, situational, and psychological factors for involving hunters in the adaptive flyway management of geese.

Adaptive flyway management of superabundant geese is emerging as a strategy to reduce damage to agricultural crops and other ecosystem disservices, while also ensuring sustainable use and conservation objectives. Given the calls for intensified hunting as part of flyway management in Europe, we need to increase the understanding of structural, situational, and psychological factors important for goose hunting among hunters. Our survey data, retrieved in southern Sweden, showed a higher potential to intensify hunting among goose hunters than other hunters. In response to hypothetical policy instruments (including regulations, collaborative, and others), hunters declared a minor increase in their intention to hunt geese, with the greatest expected increase among goose hunters should the hunting season be extended. Situational factors (e.g., access to hunting grounds) were associated with goose hunting (frequency, bag size, and intention to increase hunting). In addition, controlled motivation (derived from external pressures or to avoid guilt) and more importantly autonomous motivation (due to hunting being enjoyable or valuable) were along with goose hunter identity positively associated with goose hunting. Hunters' involvement in flyway management may be encouraged by using policy instruments to remove situational barriers and facilitate their autonomous motivation.

Tracking changes in search behaviour at a health web site.

Nowadays, the internet is used as a means to provide the public with official information on many different topics, including health related matters and care providers. In this work we have studied a search log from the official Swedish health web site 1177.se for patterns of search behaviour over time. To improve the analysis, we mapped the queries to UMLS semantic types and MeSH categories. Our analysis shows that, as expected, diseases and health care activities are the ones of most interest, but also a clear increased interest in geographical locations in the setting of health care providers. We also note a change over time in which kinds of diseases are of interest. Finally, we conclude that this type of analysis may be useful in studies of what health related topics matter to the public, but also for design and follow-up of public information campaigns.

Medical knowledge evolution query constraining aspects.

In this paper we present a first analysis towards better understanding of the query constraining aspects of knowledge, as expressed in the most used public medical bibliographic database MEDLINE. Our results indicate, possibly not surprising, that new terms occur, but also that traditional terms are replaced by more specific ones or even go out of use as they become common knowledge. Hence, as knowledge evolve over time, search methods may benefit from becoming more sensitive to knowledge expression, to enable finding new, as well as older, relevant database contents.

Author Correction: Limited evidence on the effectiveness of interventions to reduce livestock predation by large carnivores.

A correction to this article has been published and is linked from the HTML and PDF versions of this paper. The error has not been fixed in the paper.

Poor construction, not time, takes its toll on subsidised fences designed to deter large carnivores.

Large carnivore conservation may be considered as successful in Sweden, as wolf (Canis lupus), lynx (Lynx lynx), brown bear (Ursus arctos), golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos), and wolverine (Gulo gulo) populations have recovered from extinction or near extinction to viable populations during the last three decades. Particularly the wolf and lynx populations have returned at the cost of an increasing number of carnivore attacks on domestic livestock. To support coexistence between carnivores and livestock production, the Swedish authorities subsidise interventions to prevent or reduce the number of carnivore attacks. The most commonly used intervention is carnivore deterring fencing, and all livestock owners can apply for subsidies to build a fence. To receive reimbursement the fence must be approved by the authorities according to predefined criteria. An important part of any management aiming to be adaptive is evaluating interventions. In this paper we evaluate to what extent previously subsidised fences still meet the criteria 1-15 years after their approval. Of 296 fences that had received subsidies in the county of Värmland, 100 randomly selected fences were revisited in 2016. From this subsample 14% of the fences still met the initial criteria for subsidies. None of the fences that still fulfilled the criteria were more than 8 years old, whereas fences with identified failures occurred in all age groups. Of the 86 fences that failed to meet the criteria, construction failures were the most commonly occurring problem. Maintenance failures, wear and tear, only explain a minor part of the failures. To improve the quality of fencing, as well as the quality and longevity of the subsidies programme, there is a need for improved communication between authorities, and improved communication and support from the authorities to livestock producers before and during construction of fences, as well as more rigorous inspection when the fences are built.

Limited evidence on the effectiveness of interventions to reduce livestock predation by large carnivores.

Successful coexistence between large carnivores and humans is conditional upon effective mitigation of the impact of these species on humans, such as through livestock depredation. It is therefore essential for conservation practitioners, carnivore managing authorities, or livestock owners to know the effectiveness of interventions intended to reduce livestock predation by large carnivores. We reviewed the scientific literature (1990-2016), searching for evidence of the effectiveness of interventions. We found experimental and quasi-experimental studies were rare within the field, and only 21 studies applied a case-control study design (3.7% of reviewed publications). We used a relative risk ratio to evaluate the studied interventions: changing livestock type, keeping livestock in enclosures, guarding or livestock guarding dogs, predator removal, using shock collars on carnivores, sterilizing carnivores, and using visual or auditory deterrents to frighten carnivores. Although there was a general lack of scientific evidence of the effectiveness of any of these interventions, some interventions reduced the risk of depredation whereas other interventions did not result in reduced depredation. We urge managers and stakeholders to move towards an evidence-based large carnivore management practice and researchers to conduct studies of intervention effectiveness with a randomized case-control design combined with systematic reviewing to evaluate the evidence.

Prey Selection of Scandinavian Wolves: Single Large or Several Small?

Research on large predator-prey interactions are often limited to the predators' primary prey, with the potential for prey switching in systems with multiple ungulate species rarely investigated. We evaluated wolf (Canis lupus) prey selection at two different spatial scales, i.e., inter- and intra-territorial, using data from 409 ungulate wolf-kills in an expanding wolf population in Scandinavia. This expansion includes a change from a one-prey into a two-prey system with variable densities of one large-sized ungulate; moose (Alces alces) and one small-sized ungulate; roe deer (Capreolus capreolus). Among wolf territories, the proportion of roe deer in wolf kills was related to both pack size and roe deer density, but not to moose density. Pairs of wolves killed a higher proportion of roe deer than did packs, and wolves switched to kill more roe deer as their density increased above a 1:1 ratio in relation to the availability of the two species. At the intra-territorial level, wolves again responded to changes in roe deer density in their prey selection whereas we found no effect of snow depth, time during winter, or other predator-related factors on the wolves' choice to kill moose or roe deer. Moose population density was only weakly related to intra-territorial prey selection. Our results show that the functional response of wolves on moose, the species hitherto considered as the main prey, was strongly dependent on the density of a smaller, alternative, ungulate prey. The impact of wolf predation on the prey species community is therefore likely to change with the composition of the multi-prey species community along with the geographical expansion of the wolf population.

Mobility and health information searches - a Swedish perspective.

Today the first point of contact between a patient and health care is often an internet health portal - not a human. There is also a trend towards increased use of mobile devices for internet searching. We present a study of the use of mobile vs non-mobile devices when accessing the main Swedish official health portal. Our findings indicate that there is a difference in not only when people search for health information, but also the type of information searched for using different devices. We conclude that further analysis is needed to understand these differences, and consequently that the same portal solution may not suit both mobile and non-mobile health information seekers.