Evaluation of the Australian first few X household transmission project for COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: The Australian First Few X (FFX) Household Transmission Project for COVID-19 was the first prospective, multi-jurisdictional study of its kind in Australia. The project was undertaken as a partnership between federal and state health departments and the Australian Partnership for Preparedness Research on Infectious Disease Emergencies (APPRISE) and was active from April to October 2020. METHODS: We aimed to identify and explore the challenges and strengths of the Australian FFX Project to inform future FFX study development and integration into pandemic preparedness plans. We asked key stakeholders and partners involved with implementation to identify and rank factors relating to the strengths and challenges of project implementation in two rounds of modified Delphi surveys. Key representatives from jurisdictional health departments were then interviewed to contextualise findings within public health processes and information needs to develop a final set of recommendations for FFX study development in Australia. RESULTS: Four clear recommendations emerged from the evaluation. Future preparedness planning should aim to formalise and embed partnerships between health departments and researchers to help better integrate project data collection into core public health surveillance activities. The development of functional, adaptable protocols with pre-established ethics and governance approvals and investment in national data infrastructure were additional priority areas noted by evaluation participants. CONCLUSION: The evaluation provided a great opportunity to consolidate lessons learnt from the Australian FFX Household Transmission Project. The developed recommendations should be incorporated into future pandemic preparedness plans in Australia to enable effective implementation and increase local utility and value of the FFX platform within emergency public health response.

Factors associated with knowledges and attitudes about measles and rubella immunization in a non-health care occupational setting in Japan.

INTRODUCTION: Elimination of measles and rubella has been achieved in several countries and some regions. After verified measles elimination, some countries have reported outbreaks among adults in occupational settings such as health care institution and school setting. Studies have reported that knowledge and attitude for measles and/or rubella are significantly associated with immunization uptake in adults, but few studies have been conducted in settings other than health care facilities and schools. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study among 134 office employees during a routine health checkup in June 17-20, 2014, to examine the association between willingness to receive immunization and knowledge and attitudes. RESULTS: Approximately 75% had a protective level of antibody for measles (PA≥1:256) and rubella (HI ≥ 32 IU/mL). After adjustment for sex, age and immune status, the attitudes that immunization prevents measles (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 7.8, 95% confidence interval [95%CI]: 2.5-24.7) and prevents infection and transmission to others (aOR = 4.0, 95%CI: 1.4-11.4). Knowing that males are the vulnerable group for rubella infection (aOR = 5.8, 95%CI: 2.4-13.9), attitude that immunization prevents rubella infection (aOR = 7.9, 95%CI: 2.4-26.5), and prevents infection and transmit to others (aOR = 6.7, 95%CI: 2.2-20.1) were significantly associated with willingness to receive immunization after adjustment for sex, age, and immune status. CONCLUSIONS: Studies have shown that physicians and other health care workers are important source of information for promotion of immunization. Thus, we recommend that physicians educate and promote immunization for measles and/or rubella to adults working in offices during routine health checks.

Low interim influenza vaccine effectiveness, Australia, 1 May to 24 September 2017.

In 2017, influenza seasonal activity was high in the southern hemisphere. We present interim influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) estimates from Australia. Adjusted VE was low overall at 33% (95% confidence interval (CI): 17 to 46), 50% (95% CI: 8 to 74) for A(H1)pdm09, 10% (95% CI: -16 to 31) for A(H3) and 57% (95% CI: 41 to 69) for influenza B. For A(H3), VE was poorer for those vaccinated in the current and prior seasons.

Influenza testing trends in sentinel surveillance general practices in Victoria 2007 to 2014.

The Victorian Sentinel Practice Influenza Network conducts syndromic surveillance for influenza-like illness (ILI), with testing for laboratory confirmation of a proportion of cases at the discretion of general practitioners. The aim of this study was to evaluate the consistency of sentinel general practitioners' swabbing practice within and between influenza seasons. Aggregated, weekly, non-identified data for May to October each year from 2007 to 2014 were used to calculate the proportion of patients presenting with ILI (defined as cough, fever and fatigue), proportion of ILI patients swabbed and proportion of swabs positive for influenza. Data on the proportion of consultations for ILI and the proportion of ILI patients swabbed were aggregated into time-period quintiles for each year. Analysis of variance was used to compare ILI patients swabbed for each aggregated time-period quintile over all 8 years. Spearman's correlation and Bland-Altman analyses were used to measure association and agreement respectively between ILI proportions of consultations and swabs positive for influenza in time period quintiles within each year. Data were aggregated by year for the rest of the analyses. Between 2007 and 2014 there was a slight decrease in the proportion of positive tests and the proportion of ILI patients was generally a good proxy for influenza test positivity. There was consistency in testing within and between seasons, despite an overall testing increase between 2007 and 2014. There was no evidence for temporal sampling bias in these data despite testing not being performed on a systematic basis. This sampling regimen could also be considered in other similar surveillance systems.

Estimates of Seasonal Influenza Burden That Could Be Averted by Improved Influenza Vaccines in the Australian Population Aged Under 65 Years, 2015-2019.

BACKGROUND: The interpretation of relative vaccine effectiveness (rVE) of improved influenza vaccines is complex. Estimation of burden averted is useful to contextualise their potential impact across different seasons. For the population aged under 65 years in Australia, this study estimated the additional morbidity and mortality that could be averted using improved influenza vaccines. METHODS: We used observed, season-specific (2015-2019) influenza notification and influenza-coded hospitalisation frequencies and published modelled estimates of influenza-associated hospitalisations and deaths that occurred under the prevailing influenza vaccination coverage scenario. After back-calculating to the estimated burden in the population without vaccination, we applied published standard influenza vaccine effectiveness and coverage estimates to calculate the burden potentially averted by standard and improved influenza vaccines. A plausible range of rVE values were used, assuming 50% coverage. RESULTS: The percentage point difference in absolute vaccine effectiveness (VE) of an improved vaccine compared to a standard vaccine is directly proportional to its rVE and inversely proportional to the effectiveness of the standard vaccine. The incremental burden averted by an improved vaccine is a function of both its difference in absolute VE and the severity of the influenza season. Assuming an rVE of 15% with 50% coverage, the improved vaccine was estimated to additionally avert 1517 to 12,641 influenza notifications, 287 to 1311 influenza-coded hospitalisations and 9 to 33 modelled all-cause influenza deaths per year compared to the standard vaccine. CONCLUSIONS: Improved vaccines can have substantial clinical and population impact, particularly when the effectiveness of standard vaccines is low, and burden is high.

A cross sectional survey of attitudes, awareness and uptake of the parental pertussis booster vaccine as part of a cocooning strategy, Victoria, Australia.

BACKGROUND: The Victorian Government Department of Health funded a diphtheria, tetanus and acellular pertussis vaccine for parents of infants from June 2009 to June 2012 as part of a cocooning strategy for the control of pertussis. The aim of this study was to assess parents' attitudes and awareness of the vaccination program, and to estimate vaccine uptake. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey of 253 families with a child born in the first quarter of 2010 residing within five metropolitan and four rural local government areas in Victoria was conducted. Univariate analyses were performed to describe the relationship between demographic variables, knowledge and awareness of the disease, the vaccine program and vaccine uptake. Multivariate analyses examining predictors for awareness of the vaccine program and for the uptake of vaccination were also conducted. RESULTS: One hundred and five families were surveyed (response rate 43%). Of these, 93% indicated that they had heard of 'pertussis' or 'whooping cough' and 75% of mothers and 69% of fathers were aware the pertussis vaccine was available and funded for new parents. Overall, 70% of mothers and 53% of fathers were vaccinated following their child's birth, with metropolitan fathers less likely to be vaccinated as rural fathers (RR=0.6, p=0.002). Being a younger mother (p=0.02) or father (p=0.047), and being an Australian-born father (RR=1.9, p=0.03) were found to predict uptake of the vaccine in parents. CONCLUSION: Parents indicated a reasonable level of knowledge of pertussis and a willingness to be vaccinated to protect their child. However, vaccine uptake estimates indicated further opportunity for program improvement. Future cocooning strategies would benefit from specifically targeting fathers and metropolitan maternity hospitals to increase vaccine uptake. Wider promotion of the availability of vaccine providers may increase uptake to maximise the success of cocooning programs. Further investigation of the effectiveness of the cocooning strategy in decreasing infant morbidity and mortality is required.

Household transmission investigation: Design, reporting and critical appraisal.

Background: Household transmission investigations (HHTIs) contribute timely epidemiologic knowledge in response to emerging pathogens. HHTIs conducted in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020-21 reported variable methodological approaches, producing epidemiological estimates that vary in meaning, precision and accuracy. Because specific tools to assist with the optimal design and critical appraisal of HHTIs are not available, the aggregation and pooling of inferences from HHTIs to inform policy and interventions may be challenging. Methods: In this manuscript, we discuss key aspects of the HHTI design, provide recommendations for the reporting of these studies and propose an appraisal tool that contributes to the optimal design and critical appraisal of HHTIs. Results: The appraisal tool consists of 12 questions that explore 10 aspects of HHTIs and can be answered 'yes', 'no' or 'unclear'. We provide an example of the use of this tool in the context of a systematic review that aimed to quantify the household secondary attack rate from HHTIs. Conclusion: We seek to fill a gap in the epidemiologic literature and contribute to standardised HHTI approaches across settings to achieve richer and more informative datasets.

A multistate outbreak of hepatitis A associated with semidried tomatoes in Australia, 2009.

BACKGROUND: A large outbreak of hepatitis A affected individuals in several Australian states in 2009, resulting in a 2-fold increase in cases reported to state health departments compared with 2008. Two peaks of infection occurred (April-May and September-November), with surveillance data suggesting locally acquired infections from a widely distributed food product. METHODS: Two case-control studies were completed. Intensive product trace-back and food sampling was undertaken. Genotyping was conducted on virus isolates from patient serum and food samples. Control measures included prophylaxis for close contacts, public health warnings, an order by the chief health officer under the Victorian Food Act 1984, and trade-level recalls on implicated batches of semidried tomatoes. RESULTS: A multijurisdictional case-control study in April-May found an association between illness and consumption of semidried tomatoes (odds ratio [OR], 3.0; 95% CI 1.4-6.7). A second case-control study conducted in Victoria in October-November also implicated semidried tomatoes as being associated with illness (OR, 10.3; 95% CI, 4.7-22.7). Hepatitis A RNA was detected in 22 samples of semidried tomatoes. Hepatitis A virus genotype IB was identified in 144 of 153 (94%) patients tested from 2009, and partial sequence analysis showed complete identity with an isolate found in a sample of semidried tomatoes. CONCLUSIONS: The results of both case-control studies and food testing implicated the novel vehicle of semidried tomatoes as the cause of this hepatitis A outbreak. The outbreak was extensive and sustained despite public health interventions, the design and implementation of which were complicated by limitations in food testing capability and complex supply chains.

Leave entitlements, time off work and the household financial impacts of quarantine compliance during an H1N1 outbreak.

BACKGROUND: The Australian state of Victoria, with 5.2 million residents, enforced home quarantine during a H1N1 pandemic in 2009. The strategy was targeted at school children. The objective of this study was to investigate the extent to which parents' access to paid sick leave or paid carer's leave was associated with (a) time taken off work to care for quarantined children, (b) household finances, and (c) compliance with quarantine recommendations. METHODS: We conducted an online and telephone survey of households recruited through 33 schools (85% of eligible schools), received 314 responses (27%), and analysed the subsample of 133 households in which all resident parents were employed. RESULTS: In 52% of households, parents took time off work to care for quarantined children. Households in which no resident parent had access to leave appeared to be less likely to take time off work (42% vs 58%, p=0.08) although this difference had only borderline significance. Among parents who did take time off work, those in households without access to leave were more likely to lose pay (73% vs 21%, p<0.001). Of the 26 households in which a parent lost pay due to taking time off work, 42% experienced further financial consequences such as being unable to pay a bill. Access to leave did not predict compliance with quarantine recommendations. CONCLUSIONS: Future pandemic plans should consider the economic costs borne by households and options for compensating quarantined families for income losses.

Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in standardised first few X cases and household transmission investigations: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

We aimed to estimate the household secondary infection attack rate (hSAR) of SARS-CoV-2 in investigations aligned with the WHO Unity Studies Household Transmission Investigations (HHTI) protocol. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis according to PRISMA 2020 guidelines. We searched Medline, Embase, Web of Science, Scopus and medRxiv/bioRxiv for "Unity-aligned" First Few X cases (FFX) and HHTIs published 1 December 2019 to 26 July 2021. Standardised early results were shared by WHO Unity Studies collaborators (to 1 October 2021). We used a bespoke tool to assess investigation methodological quality. Values for hSAR and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were extracted or calculated from crude data. Heterogeneity was assessed by visually inspecting overlap of CIs on forest plots and quantified in meta-analyses. Of 9988 records retrieved, 80 articles (64 from databases; 16 provided by Unity Studies collaborators) were retained in the systematic review; 62 were included in the primary meta-analysis. hSAR point estimates ranged from 2% to 90% (95% prediction interval: 3%-71%; I 2 = 99.7%); I 2 values remained >99% in subgroup analyses, indicating high, unexplained heterogeneity and leading to a decision not to report pooled hSAR estimates. FFX and HHTI remain critical epidemiological tools for early and ongoing characterisation of novel infectious pathogens. The large, unexplained variance in hSAR estimates emphasises the need to further support standardisation in planning, conduct and analysis, and for clear and comprehensive reporting of FFX and HHTIs in time and place, to guide evidence-based pandemic preparedness and response efforts for SARS-CoV-2, influenza and future novel respiratory viruses.

Effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccine against pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus, Australia, 2010.

To estimate effectiveness of seasonal trivalent and monovalent influenza vaccines against pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 virus, we conducted a test-negative case-control study in Victoria, Australia, in 2010. Patients seen for influenza-like illness by general practitioners in a sentinel surveillance network during 2010 were tested for influenza; vaccination status was recorded. Case-patients had positive PCRs for pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus, and controls had negative influenza test results. Of 319 eligible patients, test results for 139 (44%) were pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus positive. Adjusted effectiveness of seasonal vaccine against pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus was 79% (95% confidence interval 33%-93%); effectiveness of monovalent vaccine was 47% and not statistically significant. Vaccine effectiveness was higher among adults. Despite some limitations, this study indicates that the first seasonal trivalent influenza vaccine to include the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus strain provided significant protection against laboratory-confirmed pandemic (H1N1) 2009 infection.

Estimation of type- and subtype-specific influenza vaccine effectiveness in Victoria, Australia using a test negative case control method, 2007-2008.

BACKGROUND: Antigenic variation of influenza virus necessitates annual reformulation of seasonal influenza vaccines, which contain two type A strains (H1N1 and H3N2) and one type B strain. We used a test negative case control design to estimate influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) against influenza by type and subtype over two consecutive seasons in Victoria, Australia. METHODS: Patients presenting with influenza-like illness to general practitioners (GPs) in a sentinel surveillance network during 2007 and 2008 were tested for influenza. Cases tested positive for influenza by polymerase chain reaction and controls tested negative for influenza. Vaccination status was recorded by sentinel GPs. Vaccine effectiveness was calculated as [(1--adjusted odds ratio) × 100%]. RESULTS: There were 386 eligible study participants in 2007 of whom 50% were influenza positive and 19% were vaccinated. In 2008 there were 330 eligible study participants of whom 32% were influenza positive and 17% were vaccinated. Adjusted VE against A/H3N2 influenza in 2007 was 68% (95% CI, 32 to 85%) but VE against A/H1N1 (27%; 95% CI, -92 to 72%) and B (84%; 95% CI, -2 to 98%) were not statistically significant. In 2008, the adjusted VE estimate was positive against type B influenza (49%) but negative for A/H1N1 (-88%) and A/H3N2 (-66%); none was statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: Type- and subtype-specific assessment of influenza VE is needed to identify variations that cannot be differentiated from a measure of VE against all influenza. Type- and subtype-specific influenza VE estimates in Victoria in 2007 and 2008 were generally consistent with strain circulation data.

Influenza epidemiology and burden of disease in Mongolia, 2013-2014 to 2017-2018.

BACKGROUND: Mongolia is a vast, sparsely populated country in central Asia. Its harsh climate and nomadic lifestyle make the population vulnerable to acute respiratory infections, particularly influenza. Evidence on the morbidity, mortality and socioeconomic impact of influenza in Mongolia is scarce; however, routine surveillance for influenza-like illness (ILI), severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) and laboratory-detected influenza is conducted. This paper describes the epidemiology of influenza and the estimated burden of influenza-associated illness in Mongolia in the five influenza seasons between 2013-2014 and 2017-2018. METHODS: Demographic and laboratory data from 152 sentinel surveillance sites on all patients who met the case definitions of ILI and SARI between October 2013 and May 2018 were extracted and analysed as described in A Manual for Estimating Disease Burden Associated with Seasonal Influenza. RESULTS: The estimated annual influenza-associated ILI and SARI rates, presented as ranges, were 1279-2798 and 81-666 cases per 100 000 population, respectively. Children aged < 5 years accounted for 67% of all ILI cases and 79% of all SARI cases. The annual specimen positivity for influenza was highest (11-30% for ILI and 8-31% for SARI) for children aged 5- < 15 years and children < 2 years old, respectively. The annual mortality rate due to pneumonia and SARI was highest among children aged < 2 years (15.8-54.0 per 100 000 population). Although the incidence of influenza-associated ILI and SARI was lowest for people aged 365 years, the mortality rate due to pneumonia and SARI (1.2-5.1 per 100 000) was higher than that for those aged 15-64 years. CONCLUSION: The estimated influenza-associated ILI and SARI incidence rates are high in Mongolia, and children, especially those aged < 5 years, have the highest influenza-associated burden in Mongolia. These findings provide evidence for decision-makers in Mongolia to consider targeted influenza vaccination, particularly for children.

Intraseason decline in influenza vaccine effectiveness during the 2016 southern hemisphere influenza season: A test-negative design study and phylogenetic assessment.

BACKGROUND: We estimated the effectiveness of seasonal inactivated influenza vaccine and the potential influence of timing of immunization on vaccine effectiveness (VE) using data from the 2016 southern hemisphere influenza season. METHODS: Data were pooled from three routine syndromic sentinel surveillance systems in general practices in Australia. Each system routinely collected specimens for influenza testing from patients presenting with influenza-like illness. Next generation sequencing was used to characterize viruses. Using a test-negative design, VE was estimated based on the odds of vaccination among influenza-positive cases as compared to influenza-negative controls. Subgroup analyses were used to estimate VE by type, subtype and lineage, as well as age group and time between vaccination and symptom onset. RESULTS: A total of 1085 patients tested for influenza in 2016 were included in the analysis, of whom 447 (41%) tested positive for influenza. The majority of detections were influenza A/H3N2 (74%). One-third (31%) of patients received the 2016 southern hemisphere formulation influenza vaccine. Overall, VE was estimated at 40% (95% CI: 18-56%). VE estimates were highest for patients immunized within two months prior to symptom onset (VE: 60%; 95% CI: 26-78%) and lowest for patients immunized >4 months prior to symptom onset (VE: 19%; 95% CI: -73-62%). DISCUSSION: Overall, the 2016 influenza vaccine showed good protection against laboratory-confirmed infection among general practice patients. Results by duration of vaccination suggest a significant decline in effectiveness during the 2016 influenza season, indicating immunization close to influenza season offered optimal protection.

Optimal timing of influenza vaccine during pregnancy: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Pregnant women have an elevated risk of illness and hospitalisation from influenza. Pregnant women are recommended to be prioritised for influenza vaccination during any stage of pregnancy. The risk of seasonal influenza varies substantially throughout the year in temperate climates; however, there is limited knowledge of how vaccination timing during pregnancy impacts the benefits received by the mother and foetus. OBJECTIVES: To compare antenatal vaccination timing with regard to influenza vaccine immunogenicity during pregnancy and transplacental transfer to their newborns. METHODS: Studies were eligible for inclusion if immunogenicity to influenza vaccine was evaluated in women stratified by trimester of pregnancy. Haemagglutination inhibition (HI) titres, stratified by trimester of vaccination, had to be measured at either pre-vaccination and within one month post-vaccination, post-vaccination and at delivery in the mother, or in cord/newborn blood. Authors searched PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science and EMBASE databases from inception until June 2016 and authors of identified studies were contacted for additional data. Extracted data were tabulated and summarised via random-effect meta-analyses and qualitative methods. RESULTS: Sixteen studies met the inclusion criteria. Meta-analyses found that compared with women vaccinated in an earlier trimester, those vaccinated in a later trimester had a greater fold increase in HI titres (1.33- to 1.96-fold) and higher HI titres in cord/newborn blood (1.21- to 1.64-fold). CONCLUSIONS: This review provides comparative analysis of the effect of vaccination timing on maternal immunogenicity and protection of the infant that is informative and relevant to current vaccine scheduling for pregnant women.

Epidemic forecasts as a tool for public health: interpretation and (re)calibration.

OBJECTIVE: Recent studies have used Bayesian methods to predict timing of influenza epidemics many weeks in advance, but there is no documented evaluation of how such forecasts might support the day-to-day operations of public health staff. METHODS: During the 2015 influenza season in Melbourne, Australia, weekly forecasts were presented at Health Department surveillance unit meetings, where they were evaluated and updated in light of expert opinion to improve their accuracy and usefulness. RESULTS: Predictive capacity of the model was substantially limited by delays in reporting and processing arising from an unprecedented number of notifications, disproportionate to seasonal intensity. Adjustment of the predictive algorithm to account for these delays and increased reporting propensity improved both current situational awareness and forecasting accuracy. CONCLUSIONS: Collaborative engagement with public health practitioners in model development improved understanding of the context and limitations of emerging surveillance data. Incorporation of these insights in a quantitative model resulted in more robust estimates of disease activity for public health use. Implications for public health: In addition to predicting future disease trends, forecasting methods can quantify the impact of delays in data availability and variable reporting practice on the accuracy of current epidemic assessment. Such evidence supports investment in systems capacity.

Effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccine in Australia, 2015: An epidemiological, antigenic and phylogenetic assessment.

BACKGROUND: A record number of laboratory-confirmed influenza cases were notified in Australia in 2015, during which type A(H3) and type B Victoria and Yamagata lineages co-circulated. We estimated effectiveness of the 2015 inactivated seasonal influenza vaccine against specific virus lineages and clades. METHODS: Three sentinel general practitioner networks conduct surveillance for laboratory-confirmed influenza amongst patients presenting with influenza-like illness in Australia. Data from the networks were pooled to estimate vaccine effectiveness (VE) for seasonal trivalent influenza vaccine in Australia in 2015 using the case test-negative study design. RESULTS: There were 2443 eligible patients included in the study, of which 857 (35%) were influenza-positive. Thirty-three and 19% of controls and cases respectively were reported as vaccinated. Adjusted VE against all influenza was 54% (95% CI: 42, 63). Antigenic characterisation data suggested good match between vaccine and circulating strains of A(H3); however VE for A(H3) was low at 44% (95% CI: 21, 60). Phylogenetic analysis indicated most circulating viruses were from clade 3C.2a, rather than the clade included in the vaccine (3C.3a). VE point estimates were higher against B/Yamagata lineage influenza (71%; 95% CI: 57, 80) than B/Victoria (42%, 95% CI: 13, 61), and in younger people. CONCLUSIONS: Overall seasonal vaccine was protective against influenza infection in Australia in 2015. Higher VE against the B/Yamagata lineage included in the trivalent vaccine suggests that more widespread use of quadrivalent vaccine could have improved overall effectiveness of influenza vaccine. Genetic characterisation suggested lower VE against A(H3) influenza was due to clade mismatch of vaccine and circulating viruses.