Quantifying Proximity, Confinement, and Interventions in Disease Outbreaks: A Decision Support Framework for Air-Transported Pathogens.

The inability to communicate how infectious diseases are transmitted in human environments has triggered avoidance of interactions during the COVID-19 pandemic. We define a metric, Effective ReBreathed Volume (ERBV), that encapsulates how infectious pathogens, including SARS-CoV-2, transport in air. ERBV separates environmental transport from other factors in the chain of infection, allowing quantitative comparisons among situations. Particle size affects transport, removal onto surfaces, and elimination by mitigation measures, so ERBV is presented for a range of exhaled particle diameters: 1, 10, and 100 µm. Pathogen transport depends on both proximity and confinement. If interpersonal distancing of 2 m is maintained, then confinement, not proximity, dominates rebreathing after 10-15 min in enclosed spaces for all but 100 µm particles. We analyze strategies to reduce this confinement effect. Ventilation and filtration reduce person-to-person transport of 1 µm particles (ERBV1) by 13-85% in residential and office situations. Deposition to surfaces competes with intentional removal for 10 and 100 µm particles, so the same interventions reduce ERBV10 by only 3-50%, and ERBV100 is unaffected. Prior knowledge of size-dependent ERBV would help identify transmission modes and effective interventions. This framework supports mitigation decisions in emerging situations, even before other infectious parameters are known.

Radon and moisture impacts from interventions integrated with housing energy retrofits.

Energy retrofits can reduce air exchange, raising the concern of whether indoor radon and moisture levels could increase. This pre/post-intervention study explored whether simple radon interventions implemented in conjunction with energy retrofits can prevent increases in radon and moisture levels. Treatment homes (n = 98) were matched with control (no energy retrofits or radon intervention) homes (n = 12). Control homes were matched by geographic location and foundation type. t-tests were used to determine whether post-energy retrofit radon and moisture level changes in treatment homes significantly differed from those in control homes. The radon interventions succeeded in preventing statistically significant increases in first floor radon using arithmetic (p = 0.749) and geometric means (p = 0.120). In basements, arithmetic (p = 0.060) and geometric (p = 0.092) mean radon levels statistically significantly increased, consistent with previous studies which found that basement radon levels may increase even if first floor levels remain unchanged. Changes in infiltration were related to changes in radon (p = 0.057 in basements; p = 0.066 on first floors). Only 58% of the change in infiltration was due to air sealing, with the rest due to weather changes. There was no statistically significant association between air sealing itself and radon levels on the first floor (p = 0.664). Moisture levels also did not significantly increase.

Unburned Methane Emissions from Residential Natural Gas Appliances.

Methane, the primary component of natural gas (NG), is a potent greenhouse gas. NG is a common fuel for residential appliances because of low cost, high energy density, and relatively clean combustion. NG exhaust contains some unburned methane due to inevitable incomplete combustion. A field campaign measuring methane concentrations in exhaust from residential NG appliances was conducted in Boston and Indianapolis to determine their contribution to overall emissions. NG space heating, water heating, and cooking appliances were measured in 100 homes. Appliance exhaust typically exhibits a brief methane concentration spike during ignition and extinguishment and relatively low concentrations during steady-state operation. Exceptions to this pattern include ovens, suboptimal stove burners, and tankless water heaters, which either have a different operating pattern or nontrivial steady-state concentrations. Findings were combined with appliance usage and prevalence assumptions to estimate total emissions. Annually, ∼30 [97.5% CI: 19-160] Gg of methane emissions can be attributed to U.S. residential NG appliances, corresponding to ∼830 [530-4500] Gg carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e100). This accounts for ∼0.1% [0.08-0.7%] of U.S. anthropogenic methane emissions (which account for ∼10% of total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions) and corresponds to an emission factor of 0.38 g/kg of NG consumed (0.038% [0.024%-0.21%]).