Predicted Earnings Losses from Graduating during COVID-19.

Poor labour market conditions at the start of a worker's career can result in earnings losses for many years. The 2021 cohort of Canadian high school and post-secondary students have seen employment prospects diminish amid economic lockdowns to contain the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The goal of this article is to predict earnings losses for this cohort. We use Census of Population data to show that a 1 percent increase in unemployment at the time of graduation leads to a 1.5-4 percent average decrease in earnings. Then, using unemployment rate forecasts from various sources, we predict how this year's graduating class is expected to fare. Our approach assumes previous recessions are informative about the effects of the current recession. We estimate that a typical 2021 graduate loses 5-12 percent of the amount they would have earned over the first few years if the pandemic had not occurred.

Les travailleurs dont les conditions sur le marché du travail laissent à désirer en début de carrière sont exposés à des pertes de revenus pendant plusieurs années. Les étudiants de la cohorte 2021 de diplômés d'établissements canadiens d'enseignement secondaire et postsecondaire ont vu leurs perspectives d'emploi s'étioler par suite des interruptions de l'activité économique visant à freiner la propagation de la maladie provoquée par le coronavirus 2019 (COVID­19). Notre objectif, dans le présent article, est de prédire les pertes de revenu que risquent les membres de cette cohorte. Nous utilisons les données du recensement de la population pour démontrer qu'une hausse de 1 pour cent du taux de chômage au moment de la diplomation entraîne une diminution moyenne de 1,5 à 4 pour cent des revenus. À l'aide de prévisions du taux de chômage provenant de diverses sources, nous prédisons ensuite de quelle façon les diplômés de 2021 devraient s'en sortir. Nous supposons, dans l'application de cette méthode, que les récessions antérieures nous éclairent sur les conséquences de la récession actuelle. Nous estimons que le diplômé moyen de 2021 sera privé de 5 à 12 pour cent du revenu qu'il aurait gagné au cours de ses premières années de carrière si la pandémie n'avait pas sévi.

Access to heart failure care post emergency department visit: do we meet established benchmarks and does it matter?

BACKGROUND: The Canadian Cardiology Society recommends that patients should be seen within 2 weeks after an emergency department (ED) visit for heart failure (HF). We sought to investigate whether patients who had an ED visit for HF subsequently consult a physician within the current established benchmark, to explore factors related to physician consultation, and to examine whether delay in consultation is associated with adverse events (AEs) (death, hospitalization, or repeat ED visit). METHODS: Patients were recruited by nurses at 8 hospital EDs in Québec, Canada, and interviewed by telephone within 6 weeks of discharge and subsequently at 3 and 6 months. Clinical variables were extracted from medical charts by nurses. We used Cox regression in the analysis. RESULTS: We enrolled 410 patients (mean age 74.9 ± 11.1 years, 53% males) with a confirmed primary diagnosis of HF. Only 30% consulted with a physician within 2 weeks post-ED visit. By 4 weeks, 51% consulted a physician. Over the 6-month follow-up, 26% returned to the ED, 25% were hospitalized, and 9% died. Patients who were followed up within 4 weeks were more likely to be older and have higher education and a worse quality of life. Patients who consulted a physician within 4 weeks of ED discharge had a lower risk of AEs (hazard ratio 0.59, 95% CI 0.35-0.99). CONCLUSION: Prompt follow-up post-ED visit for HF is associated with lower risk for major AEs. Therefore, adherence to current HF guideline benchmarks for timely follow-up post-ED visit is crucial.

Outcomes for women and men who attend a heart failure clinic: results of a 12-month longitudinal study.

BACKGROUND: Although prevalence of heart failure (HF) is similar in women and men, more men are admitted to specialized HF clinics, possibly owing to a perception that men benefit more. Our aim was to describe 1-year outcomes in men and women attending specialized HF clinics. METHODS AND RESULTS: We enrolled 531 newly referred patients (mean age 66 years, 26% women) to 1 of 6 HF multidisciplinary clinics in Quebec. Data were collected at time of entry to the clinic and 6 and 12 months later. The 3 main outcomes, mortality, disease evolution (New York Heart Association functional class, quality of life, 6-minute walk), and number of hospital admissions/emergency department visits were analyzed separately. Survival was higher in women than in men (adjusted hazard ratio 2.53, 95% confidence interval 1.10-5.80). Both women and men improved over the 12-month period in terms of quality of life, 6-minute walk, and lower use of hospital and emergency department. Persons who at entry to the clinic had more severe disease showed more improvement. Deterioration over the year was associated with higher number of comorbidities, but not with age or gender. CONCLUSIONS: Both men and women with HF who attend specialized HF clinics improved, including those with more severe disease.

Percent predicted value for the 6-minute walk test: using norm-referenced equations to characterize severity in persons with CHF.

BACKGROUND: The 6-minute walk test (6MWT) is a widely used measure of functional capacity in patients with chronic heart failure (CHF). Norm-referenced equations that predict the 6-minute walk distance (6MWD) according to age, height, weight, and gender have been proposed for healthy patients. We explored whether these equations apply to CHF patients. METHODS AND RESULTS: The sample consisted of 213 patients newly admitted to specialized CHF clinics in Montreal, Canada. Percent predicted value (PPV) for 6MWD was calculated using norm-referenced equations. We explored correlations between different measures: PPV, 6MWD, Minnesota Living with Heart Failure Quality of Life score (MLHF-QOL). We compared severity among different age, gender, and BMI (body mass index) subgroups and assessed consistency using different measures of severity. Mean age was 65.5 years and 77.5% were men. Compared with the 6MWD, PPV had a slightly better correlation with MLHF-QOL score (-0.26 versus -0.20), and slightly more predictive power in linear regressions (adjusted r(2) = 6.5% versus 4.2%). When PPV was used to differentiate severity between different age, gender, and BMI subgroups, it consistently led to similar conclusions as the MLHF-QOL score, unlike 6MWD. CONCLUSION: The 6MWD in meters may give misleading results when used as an indicator of severity of CHF condition to compare groups with different sex, age, and BMI distributions. It may be necessary to standardize it using norm-referenced equations.

Are there sex-related differences in specialized, multidisciplinary congestive heart failure clinics?

BACKGROUND: Specialized, multidisciplinary clinics improve service provision and reduce morbidity for patients with congestive heart failure (CHF). Although sex-related differences in access to cardiac health services have been reported, it remains unclear whether there are sex-related differences in the use of these specialized services. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate possible sex-related differences in severity at entry into specialized, multidisciplinary clinics, and compare prescription patterns between male and female patients at these clinics. METHODS: Data were obtained from the electronic clinical files of 765 CHF patients newly admitted to any of three main CHF clinics in Montreal, Quebec. Univariate and multivariate models were used to compare differences between sexes. RESULTS: Only 27.1% of patients were female. The mean age (+/- SD) of the women in the present study was similar to that of the men (64+/-16 years versus 65+/-13 years, respectively). Left ventricular ejection fraction at entry for patients with reduced systolic function was comparable between sexes. The New York Heart Association functional class at entry was similar among men and women with systolic dysfunction. However, among patients with preserved systolic function, women were more symptomatic, with a higher functional class at entry (adjusted OR 2.52, 95% CI 1.18 to 5.38). Prescription profiles were similar for men and women. CONCLUSION: Entry into a clinic may be delayed for women with preserved systolic function CHF. However, clinic referral patterns and disease management appeared to be similar among both men and women with systolic dysfunction CHF.

Multidisciplinary outpatient congestive heart failure clinic: impact on hospital admissions and emergency room visits.

BACKGROUND: Life-saving drugs, such as angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors and beta-blockers, are frequently underused and underdosed in patients with heart failure. Specialized clinics have been shown to provide additional benefits. OBJECTIVES: To determine the impact of a multidisciplinary outpatient heart failure clinic on the frequency of cardiovascular readmissions and emergency room (ER) visits, length of inpatient and ER stays, and New York Heart Association (NYHA) class. METHODS: A retrospective chart review study comprising 72 patients who had two or more visits to a heart failure clinic between December 1, 1998, and August 31, 1999, was performed. The number of readmissions and ER visits, and the NYHA class were recorded during the six-month period before and after the first visit to the clinic. RESULTS: Most subjects were in NYHA class III or IV (71% and 21%, respectively), and the mean ejection fraction was 31%. The post- versus preintervention relative risk of readmission was 0.43 (95% CI 0.25 to 0.72). The total number of inpatient days decreased by 54% (95% CI 44% to 62%). The post- versus preintervention relative risk of an ER visit was 0.29 (95% CI 0.19 to 0.45). The number of ER days decreased by 60% (95% CI 41% to 73%). NYHA functional class significantly improved, with most subjects ending the six-month postintervention period in class I or II (33% and 49%, respectively; P=0.001). CONCLUSIONS: This multidisciplinary heart failure clinic significantly decreased the risk of cardiovascular readmissions and subsequent ER visits. It led to improvement in NYHA class and to a decrease in the number of days spent in the hospital and in the ER.

Gender and other disparities in referral to specialized heart failure clinics following emergency department visits.

BACKGROUND: Persons with heart failure (HF) at high risk for adverse events should be followed by specialized HF clinics, since follow-up by specialized HF clinics improves outcomes for HF patients. The objective was to determine whether there were disparities for gender and other factors associated with referral of patients to specialized HF clinics. METHODS: In this prospective cohort study, patients with a confirmed primary diagnosis of HF were recruited by nurses at 8 hospital emergency departments (ED) in Québec, Canada. They were interviewed by telephone at 6 weeks post ED discharge and subsequently at 3 months and 6 months. Pertinent clinical variables were extracted from medical charts by trained nurses. Bivariate analysis and multiple logistic regression were used to identify whether gender and other potential factors were associated with referral to the HF clinic. RESULTS: We enrolled 549 patients (mean age 75.5±11.0 years; 51% males). By 6 months after their ED visit for HF, 37.6% of the cohort were referred to specialized HF clinics. Men were more likely to be referred (odds ratio [OR] 2.04; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.12, 3.74). Other factors associated with referral were younger age (OR 0.95; 95% CI 0.92, 0.98), and systolic dysfunction HF (left ventricle ejection fraction <40%) (OR 3.08; 95% CI 1.77, 5.46). CONCLUSION: There are disparities in referral with respect to gender, age, and type of HF. These disparities in referral need to be addressed.

Severity at entry to specialized heart failure clinics: discrepancies between health-related quality of life and function in men and women.

BACKGROUND: We compared severity of heart failure (HF) between men and women at entry to the multidisciplinary HF clinic based on 3 measures: New York Heart Association functional class, norm-referenced 6-minute walk distance, and health-related quality of life. METHODS: Newly admitted patients to 1 of 6 HF clinics were enrolled. Data were collected from a clinical database, questionnaires were administered to patients, and tests were administered by clinic nurses. We compared men and women with respect to the 3 severity indicators at entry to the clinic. RESULTS: In adjusted analyses, women had a lower health-related quality of life (P = 0.04) but did not have lower norm-referenced 6-minute walk distance or lower New York Heart Association functional class on entry to the clinic. Having more comorbid conditions, being on medication, and having visited the emergency department or been admitted to hospital in the past 6 months were associated with higher severity at entry according to all 3 indicators. CONCLUSIONS: Women report a lower health-related quality of life at entry to the clinic, although functional capacity does not seem to differ between women and men. Reasons for these discrepancies will need to be elucidated to better address women's health needs.

Factors related to time to admission to specialized multidisciplinary clinics in patients with congestive heart failure.

BACKGROUND: Congestive heart failure (CHF) is a common cause of hospitalization and has a poor prognosis. Specialized multidisciplinary clinics are effective in the management of CHF. OBJECTIVES: To measure time of admission to the specialized clinics and explore factors related to the time of admission to these clinics. METHODS: Patients who were newly admitted to one of six CHF multidisciplinary clinics in the province of Quebec were enrolled in the study. Data were collected from the common clinical database used at these clinics as well as from questionnaires administered to the patients. RESULTS: A total of 531 patients with a mean age of 65.9 years were enrolled. Only 26% were women. The median duration of disease before admission to the CHF clinic was 1.2 years. The majority of patients (62%) were referred by a cardiologist or an internist, while 24% were referred by other specialists, and 14% by general practitioners. One-fifth of patients did not have regular follow-up for their CHF before being admitted to the clinic. Factors associated with shorter disease duration at admission to the clinic were referral by a specialist, not having regular medical follow-up for CHF, having a higher income and having visited the emergency room for CHF. CONCLUSION: There may be a need to improve dissemination of information regarding availability and benefits of CHF clinics and criteria for referral.

Identifying relative cut-off scores with neural networks for interpretation of the Minnesota Living with Heart Failure questionnaire.

BACKGROUND: Quality of life (QoL) is an important end point in heart failure (HF) studies. The Minnesota Living with Heart Failure questionnaire (MLHFQ) is the instrument most widely used to evaluate QoL in Heart Failure (HF) patients. It is a questionnaire containing 21 questions with scores ranging from 0 to 105. A best cut-off value for MLHFQ scores to identify those patients with good, moderate or poor QoL has not been determined. OBJECTIVE: To determine a cut-off score for the MLHFQ based on the neural network (NN) approach. These cut-off scores will help discriminate between HF patients having good, moderate or poor QoL. METHODS: This research was carried out in the context of a longitudinal cohort study of new patients attending specialized HF clinics in six participating centers in Quebec, Canada. Patients completed a questionnaire that included the MLHFQ. In addition to this scale, self-perceived health status and clinical information related to the severity of HF were obtained including: the New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional class, 6 minute walk test and survival status. We analyzed the database using NN and conventional statistical tools. The NN is a statistical program that recognizes clusters of MLHFQ and relates similar QoL measures to one another. Among the 531 eligible patients, 447 patients with complete questionnaires were used to build randomly two sets for training (learning set) and for testing (validation set) the NN. RESULTS: Participants had a mean age of 65 years and 24% were women. The median MLHFQ score was 45 (inter-quartile range: 27 to 64). NN identified 3 distinct clusters of MLHFQ that represent the full spectrum of possible scores on the MLHFQ. We estimated that a score of < 24 on the MLHFQ represents a good QoL, a score between 24 and 45 represents a moderate QoL, and a score > 45 represents a poor QoL. Validation with the different severity measures confirmed these categories. These cut-offs allowed us to reach a good total accuracy (91%). These cutoffs were strongly correlated with survival status (p = 0.004), self-perceived health status (p = 0.0032), NYHA functional class (p<0.0001) and standardized 6 minutes walk test (p = 0.05) CONCLUSION: The identification of three levels of MLHFQ should be useful in clinical decision making.