Epidemiological trends and survival of oropharyngeal cancer in a high HPV-prevalent area: A Danish population-based study from 2000 to 2020.

Denmark, alongside other Scandinavian countries, the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom, has high prevalence of human papillomavirus (HPV). Our oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) database includes all diagnosed cases in Eastern Denmark during a period of more than two decades. We investigated the incidence, survival, and recurrence of patients with OPSCC with combined p16- and HPV testing covering a consecutive 21-year period. Age-adjusted incidence rate (AAIR) per 100,000, survival models, and Cox proportional-hazards model were employed. Two thousand eight hundred thirty-four patients were included (57.5% HPV positive (HPV+)/p16 positive (p16+), 33.7% HPV negative (HPV-)/p16 negative (p16-), 4% HPV+/p16-, and 4.8% HPV-/p16+). The AAIR for all patients increased from 1.8 to 5.1 per 100,000 from 2000 to 2020 linked to an increasing AAIR of HPV+/p16+ OPSCCs from 0.9 to 3.5 per 100,000 from 2000 to 2020. The AAIR for the HPV-/p16- OPSCCs decreased from 1.6 to 1.4 from 2017 to 2020. HPV+/p16+ OPSCCs had a higher 5-year overall survival (OS) of 79.2% compared to the other subgroups (HPV+/p16- OS: 50.4%; HPV-/p16+ OS: 49.4%; HPV-/p16- OS: 35.1%). The AAIR of the total OPSCC group increased from year 2000 to 2020, driven by a rise in the HPV+/p16+ group. A decreasing incidence rate was observed for the HPV-/p16- OPSCCs from 2017 to 2020. The OS for HPV+/p16+ OPSCCs was significantly higher compared to all other HPV/p16 subgroups. Therefore, we recommend testing for combined HPV and p16 status in patients with OPSCC when selecting patients for clinical trials, especially in case of de-escalating/escalating.

A comparison of loco-regional relapse pattern in HPV positive vs negative oropharyngeal cancers following radiotherapy; relation to pretreatment FDG-PET and radiotherapy target volumes.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have shown that a large proportion of relapses in head-and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) following radiotherapy (RT) occur in the pretreatment FDG-PET avid volume (GTV-PET). The aim of the current work was to see if this was valid also in an oropharynx squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) only population, and to compare the loco-regional relapse pattern between HPV positive and HPV negative patients. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Among 633 OPSCC patients treated between 2009 and 2017, 46 patients with known HPV (p16) status and isolated loco-regional relapse were included. Oncologists contoured relapse volumes (RV) on relapse scans (PET/CT, CT or MR), which were thereafter deformed to match the anatomy of the planning CTs. The point of origin (center of volume) of the deformed RVs were determined and analyzed in relation to the RT target volumes (GTV-PET, GTV and CTVs). The relapse pattern was compared between HPV positive and HPV negative patients using Fischer's exact test. RESULTS: Sixty RVs were contoured in the 46 patients. 55% (95% CI 44-67%) of relapses originated in GTV-PET, while the other RT volumes harbored 12% (5-20%) (GTV), 18% (9-28%) (high risk CTV) and 5% (0-11%) (low risk CTV) of relapses. Six relapses were found outside the RT target volumes. No significant difference in relapse pattern between HPV positive and HPV negative patients was found (p = .95). CONCLUSION: There were no signs of difference in loco-regional relapse pattern between HPV positive and HPV negative patients. In agreement with previous findings, GTV-PET was the most frequent RT target volume of relapse.

A systematic review on clinical adaptive radiotherapy for head and neck cancer.

INTRODUCTION: Head and neck cancer (HNC) patients' anatomy may undergo significant changes during radiotherapy (RT). This potentially affects dose distribution and compromises conformity between planned and delivered dose. Adaptive radiotherapy (ART) is a promising technique to overcome this problem but requires a significant workload. This systematic review aims to estimate the clinical and dosimetric benefits of ART using prospective data. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A search on PubMed and Web of Science according to the PRISMA guidelines was made on Feb 6, 2023. Search string used was: 'adaptive radiotherapy head neck cancer'. English language filter was applied. All studies were screened for inclusion on title and abstract, and the full text was read and discussed in the research group in case of uncertainty. Inclusion criteria were a prospective ART strategy for HNC investigating clinical or dosimetric outcomes. RESULTS: A total of 1251 articles were identified of which 15 met inclusion criteria. All included studies were published between 2010 and 2023 with a substantial diversity in design, endpoints, and nomenclature. The number of patients treated with ART was small with a median of 20 patients per study (range 4 to 86), undergoing 1-2 replannings. Mean dose to the parotid glands was reduced by 0.4-7.1 Gy. Maximum dose to the spinal cord was reduced by 0.5-4.6 Gy. Only five studies reported clinical outcome and disease control was excellent. Data on toxicity were ambiguous with some studies indicating reduced acute toxicity and xerostomia, while others found reduced quality of life in patients treated with ART. CONCLUSION: The literature on clinical ART in HNC is limited. ART is associated with small reductions in doses to organs at risk, but the influence on toxicity and disease control is uncertain. There is a clear need for larger, prospective trials with a well-defined control group.

Clinical implication of genetic intratumor heterogeneity for targeted therapy in head and neck cancer.

BACKGROUND: Genomic profiling is increasingly used both in therapeutic decision-making and as inclusion criteria for trials testing targeted therapies. However, the mutational landscape may vary across different areas of a tumor and intratumor heterogeneity will challenge treatments or clinical decisions based on single tumor biopsies. The purpose of this study was to assess the clinical relevance of genetic intratumor heterogeneity in head and neck squamous cell carcinomas (HNSCC) using the ESMO Scale for Clinical Actionability of Molecular Targets (ESCAT). MATERIALS AND METHODS: This prospective study included 33 whole tumor specimens from 28 patients with primary or recurrent HNSCC referred for surgery. Three tumor blocks were selected from central, semi-peripheral, and peripheral positions, mimicking biopsies in three different locations. Genetic analysis of somatic copy number alterations (SCNAs) was performed on the three biopsies using Oncoscan, focusing on 45 preselected HNSCC genes of interest. Clinical relevance was assessed using the ESCAT score to investigate whether and how treatment decisions would change based on the three biopsies from the same tumor. RESULTS: The SCNAs identified among 45 preselected genes within the three tumor biopsies derived from the same tumor revealed distinct variations. The detected discrepancies could potentially influence treatment approaches or clinical decisions in 36% of the patients if only one tumor biopsy was used. Recurrent tumors exhibited significantly higher variation in SCNAs than primary tumors (p = .024). No significant correlation between tumor size and heterogeneity (p = .7) was observed. CONCLUSION: In 36% of patients diagnosed with HNSCC, clinically significant intratumor heterogeneity was observed which may have implications for patient management. This finding substantiates the need for future studies that specifically investigate the clinical implications associated with intratumor heterogeneity.

Consistency in contouring of organs at risk by artificial intelligence vs oncologists in head and neck cancer patients.

BACKGROUND: In the Danish Head and Neck Cancer Group (DAHANCA) 35 trial, patients are selected for proton treatment based on simulated reductions of Normal Tissue Complication Probability (NTCP) for proton compared to photon treatment at the referring departments. After inclusion in the trial, immobilization, scanning, contouring and planning are repeated at the national proton centre. The new contours could result in reduced expected NTCP gain of the proton plan, resulting in a loss of validity in the selection process. The present study evaluates if contour consistency can be improved by having access to AI (Artificial Intelligence) based contours. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The 63 patients in the DAHANCA 35 pilot trial had a CT from the local DAHANCA centre and one from the proton centre. A nationally validated convolutional neural network, based on nnU-Net, was used to contour OARs on both scans for each patient. Using deformable image registration, local AI and oncologist contours were transferred to the proton centre scans for comparison. Consistency was calculated with the Dice Similarity Coefficient (DSC) and Mean Surface Distance (MSD), comparing contours from AI to AI and oncologist to oncologist, respectively. Two NTCP models were applied to calculate NTCP for xerostomia and dysphagia. RESULTS: The AI contours showed significantly better consistency than the contours by oncologists. The median and interquartile range of DSC was 0.85 [0.78 - 0.90] and 0.68 [0.51 - 0.80] for AI and oncologist contours, respectively. The median and interquartile range of MSD was 0.9 mm [0.7 - 1.1] mm and 1.9 mm [1.5 - 2.6] mm for AI and oncologist contours, respectively. There was no significant difference in ΔNTCP. CONCLUSIONS: The study showed that OAR contours made by the AI algorithm were more consistent than those made by oncologists. No significant impact on the ΔNTCP calculations could be discerned.

Impact of specific high-risk human papillomavirus genotypes on survival in oropharyngeal cancer.

The increases observed in incidence and survival of oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) have been attributed to human papillomavirus (HPV) infection, but the survival-impact of specific genotypes is poorly understood. We investigated the potential influence of HPV genotypes on survival in HPV-positive (HPV+) OPSCC. All patients with HPV+/p16+ OPSCC and available genotype data within the period 2011 to 2017 in Eastern Denmark were included. Descriptive statistics on clinical and tumor data, as well as overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) with Cox hazard models and Kaplan-Meier plots were performed. Overall, 769 HPV+/p16+ OPSCC patients were included of which genotype HPV16 accounted for 86% (n = 662). Compared to high-risk non-HPV16 genotypes (HR non-HPV16), HPV16 patients were younger at diagnosis (median years, 60 vs 64), had a higher male to female ratio (3.7:1 vs 2.1:1), and lower performance scores of ≤1 (90%, n = 559, vs 81%, n = 74). Regarding 5-year OS and RFS, no difference was observed between HPV16 and HR non-HPV16 patients. Subgrouping the HR non-HPV16 group into HPV33 (n = 57), HPV35 (n = 26) and "other genotypes" (n = 24) a significantly worse OS in the "other genotypes" group (hazard rate: 2.33, P = .027) was shown. With similar survival results between HPV16 and non-HPV16 genotypes, genotyping in OPSCC is interesting from an epidemiological point of view as well as in vaccination programs, but not a necessary addition in prognostication of HPV+/p16+ OPSCC.

The impact of tobacco smoking on survival of patients with oral squamous cell carcinoma: a population-based retrospective study.

BACKGROUND: This article aims to evaluate the impact of smoking status, accumulated tobacco exposure (ATE), and smoking cessation on overall- and disease-free survival (OS and DFS) of patients with oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC). MATERIAL AND METHODS: Patients with primary OSCC treated with curative intent between 2000 and 2019 in Copenhagen were included (n = 1808). Kaplan-Meier curves and multivariable Cox regression analyses were performed to compare the survival of patients with different smoking history. Interactions between ATE and (A) tumor subsite and (B) excessive alcohol consumption (EAC) on the survival were evaluated using multivariable Cox regression analyses with interaction terms. RESULTS: We included 1717 patients with known smoking status (62.8% males, median age: 64 years (IQR: 57-71 years)), who had a 5-year OS of 53.7% (95%CI: 49.8%-57.9%). Based on fully adjusted multivariable Cox regression analyses, significantly elevated hazard ratios (HRs) for OS and DFS were identified for current, but not former smokers, compared to never-smokers. An approximately linear relationship between continuous ATE and survival estimates was identified. ATE analyzed as a categorical variable showed significantly elevated HRs for OS of patients with all categories (060 PYs), however only for DFS of patients with >60 PYs, compared to 0 PYs. Furthermore, an unfavorable long-term prognosis was evident after >3.5 (OS) and >2.5 (DFS) years from diagnosis for patients who continued smoking compared to patients with smoking cessation at diagnosis. The survival estimates of patients with different tumor subsite and alcohol consumption differed with increasing ATE. CONCLUSION: Tobacco smoking (assessed as smoking status and ATE) was associated with inferior survival (OS and DFS) among patients with OSCC. Unfavorable long-term prognosis was significant for patients who continued smoking compared to patients with smoking cessation at diagnosis. The impact of ATE on survival of patients with OSCC may depend on the tumor subsite and/or alcohol consumption.

Target coverage and local recurrences after radiotherapy for sinonasal cancer in Denmark 2008-2015. A DAHANCA study.

PURPOSE: The study aimed to investigate the pattern of failure and describe compromises in the definition and coverage of the target for patients treated with curatively intended radiotherapy (RT) for sinonasal cancer (SNC). METHODS AND MATERIAL: Patients treated with curatively intended RT in 2008-2015 in Denmark for SNC were eligible for the retrospective cohort study. Information regarding diagnosis and treatment was retrieved from the national database of the Danish Head and Neck Cancer Group (DAHANCA). Imaging from the diagnosis of recurrences was collected, and the point of origin (PO) of the recurrent tumour was estimated. All treatment plans were collected and reviewed with the focus on target coverage, manual modifications of target volumes, and dose to organs at risk (OARs) above defined constraints. RESULTS: A total of 184 patients were included in the analysis, and 76 (41%) relapsed. The majority of recurrences involved T-site (76%). Recurrence imaging of 39 patients was evaluated, and PO was established. Twenty-nine POs (74%) were located within the CTV, and the minimum dose to the PO was median 64.1 Gy (3.1-70.7). The criteria for target coverage (V95%) was not met in 89/184 (48%) of the CTV and 131/184 (71%) of the PTV. A total of 24% of CTVs had been manually modified to spare OARs of high-dose irradiation. No difference in target volume modifications was observed between patients who suffered recurrence and patients with lasting remission. CONCLUSION: The majority of relapses after radical treatment of SNC were located in the T-site (the primary tumour site). Multiple compromises with regards to target coverage and tolerance levels for OARs in the sinonasal region, as defined from RT guidelines, were taken. No common practice in this respect could be derived from the study.

FDG-PET/CT identified distant metastases and synchronous cancer in squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck: the impact of smoking and P16-s.

PURPOSE: Whole-body FDG-PET-CT is widely used at diagnosis of squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck (SCCHN) but may identify suspicious lesions outside the neck that require investigation. This study evaluated the impact of smoking and P16-status on the incidence of malignant disease outside the head and neck region in newly diagnosed patients with SCCHN. METHODS: All PET-positive foci outside the head-neck area were registered in 1069 patients planned for postoperative or curative intent radiotherapy with whole-body FDG-PET/CT from 2006 to 2012. All patient files were retrospectively investigated and clinical parameters, tobacco use, HPV (P16)-status and subsequent malignant disease registered. RESULTS: Malignancy outside the neck was diagnosed in 9% of smokers, 2% of never-smokers, and 5% of patients with P16-positive oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC). Clinically suspicious PET-positive foci outside the head-neck were malignant in 55% of smokers, 34% of never-smokers, and in 38% of P16-pos OPSCC. All but two patients with cancer occurring outside the head and neck region were smokers. CONCLUSION: Malignancy outside the neck at diagnosis was more frequent in smokers compared to non-smokers or P16-pos OPSCC. A high proportion of clinically suspicious PET-positive foci were non-malignant.

Bloodstream infections in head and neck cancer patients after curative-intent radiotherapy: a population-based study from the Danish Head and Neck Cancer Group database.

BACKGROUND: Patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) undergoing radiotherapy (RT) or chemoradiation (CRT) may become immunocompromised. In this population-based study, we aimed to investigate the risk factors, microbiological aetiologies, prognosis and impact on early non-cancer mortality of bloodstream infections (BSIs) after RT/CRT. METHODS: Patients with HNSCC of the pharynx, larynx and oral cavity treated with curative-intent RT/CRT in Denmark between 2010 and 2017 and subsequent BSI episodes occurring within 18 months of RT/CRT initiation were identified in national registries. RESULTS: We included 5674 patients and observed 238 BSIs. Increasing age, stage and performance status were significantly associated with an elevated BSI risk, while sex, smoking and high-grade mucositis were not. Human papillomavirus-positive oropharyngeal cancer patients had a decreased risk. Staphylococcus aureus accounted for 34% of episodes occurring during the first 3 months. The 30-day post-BSI mortality rate was 26% (95% confidence interval: 19-32) and BSIs were involved in 10% of early non-cancer deaths. CONCLUSION: The risk of BSI development is associated with several patient- and disease-related factors and BSIs contribute considerably to early non-cancer mortality. Empiric antibiotic treatment regimens should prioritise coverage for S. aureus when treating suspected systemic infection in this population.

Distant metastases in squamous cell carcinoma of the pharynx and larynx: a population-based DAHANCA study.

BACKGROUND: In head and neck cancer, distant metastases may be present at diagnosis (M1) or occur after treatment (DM). It is unknown whether M1 and DM follow the same clinical development and share prognosis, as population-based studies regarding outcomes are scarce. Therefore, we investigated the incidence, location of metastases and overall survival of patients with M1 and DM. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Patients diagnosed with squamous cell carcinoma of the pharynx and larynx in Denmark 2008-2017 were identified in the Danish Head and Neck Cancer Group (DAHANCA) database. We identified 7300 patients, of whom 197 (3%) had M1 and 498 (8%) developed DM during follow-up. RESULTS: The 5-year cumulative incidence of DM was 8%. 1- and 2-year overall survival for DM (27% and 13%) vs. M1 (28% and 9%) were equally poor. There was no significant difference in location of metastases for M1 and DM and the most frequently involved organs were lungs, bone, lymph nodes and liver, in descending order. In oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinomas, the location of metastases did not differ by p16-status. For p16-positive patients, 21% of DM occurred later than three years of follow-up compared to 7% of p16-negative patients. CONCLUSION: Incidence, location of metastases and prognosis of primary metastatic (M1) or post-treatment metastatic (DM) disease in pharyngeal and laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma are similar in this register-based study.

High nodal FDG uptake increases risk of distant metastasis in patients with oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to investigate if FDG uptake metrics in primary tumor and lymph node metastases in patients with oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) has a prognostic value beyond UICC8 staging in a multiple endpoint model. METHODS: Patients with OPSCC treated with primary radiotherapy at Rigshospitalet in the period 2010-2017 were included. All patients had a pretreatment FDG PET/CT scan performed. Four cause-specific Cox regression models were built for the hazard ratios (HR) of recurrence in T-, N-, M-site, and death with no evidence of disease (NED), respectively. The following variables were included: T-, N-stage, p16 status, metabolic tumor volume, and FDG uptake in both primary tumor and lymph nodes. A competing risk analysis was performed and absolute risk estimates were estimated using the Aalen-Johansen method. RESULTS: Overall, 441 patients were included. Thirty-four patients had T-site recurrence, 31 N-site recurrence, 32 M-site recurrence, and 52 patients had death NED as event. Nodal FDG uptake had a significant impact on N- and M-site recurrence, with HRs of 2.13 (CI 1.20-3.77) and 2.18 (CI 1.16-4.10). The individual prognostication of absolute risk of the four events for any given patient can be assessed in the online tool (https://rasmussen.shinyapps.io/OPSCCmodelFDG_PET/). CONCLUSION: High nodal FDG uptake increases the risk of N- and M-site recurrence in patients with OPSCC in a competing risk scenario. The reported results are available in an easy applicable online tool and can help identify relevant candidates for future trials testing treatment approaches.

Radiation dose-painting with protons vs. photons for head-and-neck cancer.

Background: Dose-painting has recently been investigated in early-phase trials in head-and-neck cancer (HNC) with the aim of improving local tumor control. At the same time proton therapy has been reported as potentially capable of decreasing toxicity. Here, we investigate whether protons could be applied in a dose-painting setting by comparing proton dose distributions with delivered photon plans from a phase-I trial of FDG-PET based dose-painting at our institution.Material and methods: Eleven oropharynx (5), hypopharynx (2) and larynx cancer (4) patients from the recently conducted phase I trial were used for comparison of proton and photon dose-painting techniques. Robust optimization (3.5%/3 mm) was used for proton plans. Plan robustness and difference in dose metrics to targets and organs at risk were evaluated.Results: The proton plans met target dose constraints, while having lower non-target dose than photon plans (body-minus-CTV, mean dose 3.9 Gy vs 7.2 Gy, p = .004). Despite the use of robust proton planning for plan max dose, photon plan max doses were more robust (p = .006). Max dose to medulla, brainstem and mandible were lower in the proton plans, while there was no significant difference in mean dose to submandibular- and parotid glands.Conclusion: Proton dose-painting for HNC seems feasible and can reduce the non-target dose overall, however not significantly to certain organs close to the target, such as the salivary glands. Max dose in proton plans had a lower robustness compared to photons, requiring caution to avoid unintended hot spots in consideration of the risk of mucosal toxicity.

FDG-PET/CT in the surveillance of head and neck cancer following radiotherapy.

PURPOSE: To examine the time-dependent diagnostic performance of FDG-PET/CT in the follow-up of head and neck cancer (HNC) and to assess the prognostic value of PET-negative and PET-inconclusive findings. MATERIAL AND METHODS: 279 HNC patients primarily treated with radiotherapy from 2006 to 2012 were included. The follow-up PET/CT scans were categorized as benign, malignant or inconclusive by a radiologist and a nuclear physician. The reference standard was histology or verification by progression on imaging. The outcome measures were positive (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV), and the PET/CT scans were grouped according to time since treatment and compared. An analysis of the diagnostic accuracy was performed with the inconclusive results categorized as both benign and malignant to create ranges for the diagnostic performance. RESULTS: The proportion of inconclusive results declined from 26 to 8.4% and 0% after 0-3, 3-6 and 12-24 months post-treatment. The ranges for diagnostic performance after 0-3, 3-6, 6-12, 12-24 months and overall post-treatment were: PPV 27.3-50, 48.4-58.3, 71.4-100, 100 and 50.5-65.7 and NPV 75.0-84.6, 95.1-96.8, 92.9-100, 100 and 94.8-96.7. Time to recurrence was not statistically different after a PET-negative or a PET-inconclusive result. CONCLUSION: The diagnostic accuracy of a surveillance PET/CT scan after HNC improves with time since treatment, and is very reliable after 1 year. However, the NPV is already high 3 months post-treatment supporting the use of PET/CT for early evaluation of head and neck cancer patients.

Access to radiotherapy among circumpolar Inuit populations.

Cancer is a substantial health burden for Inuit populations, an Indigenous peoples who primarily inhabit the circumpolar regions of Alaska, Canada, Greenland, and Russia. Access to radiotherapy is lacking or absent in many of these regions, despite it being an essential component of cancer treatment. This Review presents an overview of factors influencing radiotherapy delivery in each of the four circumpolar Inuit regions, which include population and geography, health-systems infrastructure, and cancer epidemiology. This Review also provides insight into the complex patient pathways needed to access radiotherapy, and on radiotherapy use. The unique challenges in delivering radiotherapy to circumpolar Inuit populations are discussed, which, notably, include geographical and cultural barriers. Recommendations include models of care that have successfully addressed these barriers, and highlight the need for increased collaboration between circumpolar referral centres in Alaska, Canada, Greenland, and Russia to ultimately allow for better delivery of cancer treatment.

Intratumor heterogeneity of PD-L1 expression in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma.

Intratumor heterogeneity may contribute to the ambiguous clinical results on PD-L1 status as a predictor for immunotherapy response in patients with HNSCC. This decreases the utility of PD-L1 expression from single tumour biopsies as a predictive biomarker. In this prospective study, intratumor heterogeneity of PD-L1 expression in HNSCC was investigated with both Tumour Proportion Score (TPS) and Combined Positive Score (CPS). Thirty-three whole surgical specimens from 28 patients with HNSCC were included. PD-L1 expression in six random core biopsies from each surgical specimen was used to assess the concordance between multiple biopsies and the negative predictive value of a single negative core biopsy. With 1% cut off, 36% of the specimens were concordant with TPS and 52% with CPS. With a 50% cut-off value the concordance was 70% with TPS and 55% with CPS. Defining a tumour as positive if just a single-one of the biopsies was positive, the negative predictive value (NPV) of a single negative core biopsy was 38.9 and 0% (1% cut off), and 79.9% and 62.8% (50% cut off) for TPS and CPS, respectively. In conclusion, PD-L1 positivity varies markedly within the tumour, both with TPS and CPS, challenging the utility of this biomarker.

Development and external validation of nomograms in oropharyngeal cancer patients with known HPV-DNA status: a European Multicentre Study (OroGrams).

BACKGROUND: The proxy marker for human papillomavirus (HPV), p16, is included in the new AJCC 8th/UICC 8th staging system, but due to incongruence between p16 status and HPV infection, single biomarker evaluation could lead to misallocation of patients. We established nomograms for overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) in patients with oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) and known HPV-DNA and p16 status, and validated the models in cohorts from high- and low-prevalent HPV countries. METHODS: Consecutive OPSCC patients treated in Denmark, 2000-2014 formed the development cohort. The validation cohorts were from Sweden, Germany, and the United Kingdom. We developed nomograms by applying a backward-selection procedure for selection of variables, and assessed model performance. RESULTS: In the development cohort, 1313 patients, and in the validation cohorts, 344 German, 503 Swedish and 463 British patients were included. For the OS nomogram, age, gender, combined HPV-DNA and p16 status, smoking, T-, N-, and M-status and UICC-8 staging were selected, and for the PFS nomogram the same variables except UICC-8 staging. The nomograms performed well in discrimination and calibration. CONCLUSIONS: Our nomograms are reliable prognostic methods in patients with OPSCC. Combining HPV DNA and p16 is essential for correct prognostication. The nomograms are available at www.orograms.org .

Incidence of head and neck cancer in children: A Danish nationwide study from 1978 to 2014.

BACKGROUND: Pediatric head and neck malignancies are rare and only a few descriptive epidemiological studies have been published. Using unique nationwide registries, we report age-specific incidence rates of head and neck cancer (HNC) among children during four decades. METHODS: Data were obtained from the Danish Cancer Registry. We included children aged 0-14 years diagnosed between January 1, 1978 and December 31, 2014 with extra-orbital, nonskin and nonbone HNC. Patients were divided into nine groups in regard to tumor location: oral cavity, oropharynx, nasopharynx, hypopharynx, thyroid, major salivary glands, larynx, and middle ear. Based on the World Health Organization standard population and Danish age-specific population counts, age-adjusted incidence rates (AAIR) and average annual percentage change (AAPC) were calculated and examined for trends. RESULTS: In total, 169 children (55.6% females) were registered with a malignant tumor in the head and neck region. The AAIR increased with an AAPC of 2.2% (95% CI, 0.8-3.7%). Females showed an AAIR of 0.54 per 100,000 person years compared to that of males, with 0.41 per 100,000 person years (P < 0.01). The AAIR was higher among children aged 10-14 years compared to 0-9-year-old children (P < 0.01). Based on morphology, a significant increase in AAIR was observed for sarcomas, with an increase of 0.16-0.27 per 100,000 person years (P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The incidence rate of pediatric HNC was higher among females and evidence of increasing rates was observed during 1978-2014, explained by an increase mainly in sarcomas.

Immunohistochemical and molecular imaging biomarker signature for the prediction of failure site after chemoradiation for head and neck squamous cell carcinoma.

OBJECTIVE: To identify a failure site-specific prognostic model by combining immunohistochemistry (IHC) and molecular imaging information to predict long-term failure type in squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck. PATIENT AND METHODS: Tissue microarray blocks of 196 head and neck squamous cell carcinoma cases were stained for a panel of biomarkers using IHC. Gross tumor volume (GTV) from the PET/CT radiation treatment planning CT scan, maximal Standard Uptake Value (SUVmax) of fludeoxyglucose (FDG) and clinical information were included in the model building using Cox proportional hazards models, stratified for p16 status in oropharyngeal carcinomas. Separate models were built for time to locoregional failure and time to distant metastasis. RESULTS: Higher than median p53 expression on IHC tended toward a risk factor for locoregional failure but was protective for distant metastasis, χ2 for difference p = .003. The final model for locoregional failure included p53 (HR: 1.9; p: .055), concomitant cisplatin (HR: 0.41; p: .008), ß-tubulin-1 (HR: 1.8; p: .08), ß-tubulin-2 (HR: 0.49; p: .057) and SUVmax (HR: 2.1; p: .046). The final model for distant metastasis included p53 (HR: 0.23; p: .025), Bcl-2 (HR: 2.6; p: .08), SUVmax (HR: 3.5; p: .095) and GTV (HR: 1.7; p: .063). CONCLUSIONS: The models successfully distinguished between risk of locoregional failure and risk of distant metastasis, which is important information for clinical decision-making. High p53 expression has opposite prognostic effects for the two endpoints; increasing risk of locoregional failure, but decreasing the risk of metastatic failure, but external validation of this finding is needed.