Rapid Epidemic Expansion of Chikungunya Virus East/Central/South African Lineage, Paraguay.

The spread of Chikungunya virus is a major public health concern in the Americas. There were >120,000 cases and 51 deaths in 2023, of which 46 occurred in Paraguay. Using a suite of genomic, phylodynamic, and epidemiologic techniques, we characterized the ongoing large chikungunya epidemic in Paraguay.

Comprehensive Characterization of HIV-1 Molecular Epidemiology and Demographic History in the Brazilian Region Most Heavily Affected by AIDS.

UNLABELLED: The high incidence of AIDS cases and the dominance of HIV-1 subtype C infections are two features that distinguish the HIV-1 epidemic in the two southernmost Brazilian states (Rio Grande do Sul [RS] and Santa Catarina [SC]) from the epidemic in other parts of the country. Nevertheless, previous studies on HIV molecular epidemiology were conducted mainly in capital cities, and a more comprehensive understanding of factors driving this unique epidemic in Brazil is necessary. Blood samples were collected from individuals in 13 municipalities in the Brazilian southern region. HIV-1 env and pol genes were submitted to phylogenetic analyses for assignment of subtype, and viral population phylodynamics were reconstructed by applying Skygrid and logistic coalescent models in a Bayesian analysis. A high prevalence of subtype C was observed in all sampled locations; however, an increased frequency of recombinant strains was found in RS, with evidence for new circulating forms (CRFs). In the SC state, subtype B and C epidemics were associated with distinct exposure groups. Although logistic models estimated similar growth rates for HIV-1 subtype C (HIV-1C) and HIV-1B, a Skygrid plot reveals that the former epidemic has been expanding for a longer time. Our results highlight a consistent expansion of HIV-1C in south Brazil, and we also discuss how heterosexual and men who have sex with men (MSM) transmission chains might have impacted the current prevalence of HIV-1 subtypes in this region. IMPORTANCE: The AIDS epidemic in south Brazil is expanding rapidly, but the circumstances driving this condition are not well known. A high prevalence of HIV-1 subtype C was reported in the capital cities of this region, in contrast to the subtype B dominance in the rest of the country. This study sought to comparatively investigate the HIV-1 subtype B and C epidemics by sampling individuals from several cities in the two states with the highest AIDS incidences in Brazil. Our analyses showed distinct epidemic growth curves for the two epidemics, and we also found evidence suggesting that separate transmission chains may be impacting the viral phylodynamics and the emergence of new recombinant forms.

The High Capacity of Brazilian Aedes aegypti Populations to Transmit a Locally Circulating Lineage of Chikungunya Virus.

The incidence of chikungunya has dramatically surged worldwide in recent decades, imposing an expanding burden on public health. In recent years, South America, particularly Brazil, has experienced outbreaks that have ravaged populations following the rapid dissemination of the chikungunya virus (CHIKV), which was first detected in 2014. The primary vector for CHIKV transmission is the urban mosquito species Aedes aegypti, which is highly prevalent throughout Brazil. However, the impact of the locally circulating CHIKV genotypes and specific combinations of local mosquito populations on vector competence remains unexplored. Here, we experimentally analyzed and compared the infectivity and transmissibility of the CHIKV-ECSA lineage recently isolated in Brazil among four Ae. aegypti populations collected from different regions of the country. When exposed to CHIKV-infected AG129 mice for blood feeding, all the mosquito populations displayed high infection rates and dissemination efficiency. Furthermore, we observed that all the populations were highly efficient in transmitting CHIKV to a vertebrate host (naïve AG129 mice) as early as eight days post-infection. These results demonstrate the high capacity of Brazilian Ae. aegypti populations to transmit the locally circulating CHIKV-ECSA lineage. This observation could help to explain the high prevalence of the CHIKV-ECSA lineage over the Asian lineage, which was also detected in Brazil in 2014. However, further studies comparing both lineages are necessary to gain a better understanding of the vector's importance in the epidemiology of CHIKV in the Americas.

Exploring Microorganisms Associated to Acute Febrile Illness and Severe Neurological Disorders of Unknown Origin: A Nanopore Metagenomics Approach.

Acute febrile illness (AFI) and severe neurological disorders (SNDs) often present diagnostic challenges due to their potential origins from a wide range of infectious agents. Nanopore metagenomics is emerging as a powerful tool for identifying the microorganisms potentially responsible for these undiagnosed clinical cases. In this study, we aim to shed light on the etiological agents underlying AFI and SND cases that conventional diagnostic methods have not been able to fully elucidate. Our approach involved analyzing samples from fourteen hospitalized patients using a comprehensive nanopore metagenomic approach. This process included RNA extraction and enrichment using the SMART-9N protocol, followed by nanopore sequencing. Subsequent steps involved quality control, host DNA/cDNA removal, de novo genome assembly, and taxonomic classification. Our findings in AFI cases revealed a spectrum of disease-associated microbes, including Escherichia coli, Streptococcus sp., Human Immunodeficiency Virus 1 (Subtype B), and Human Pegivirus. Similarly, SND cases revealed the presence of pathogens such as Escherichia coli, Clostridium sp., and Dengue virus type 2 (Genotype-II lineage). This study employed a metagenomic analysis method, demonstrating its efficiency and adaptability in pathogen identification. Our investigation successfully identified pathogens likely associated with AFI and SNDs, underscoring the feasibility of retrieving near-complete genomes from RNA viruses. These findings offer promising prospects for advancing our understanding and control of infectious diseases, by facilitating detailed genomic analysis which is critical for developing targeted interventions and therapeutic strategies.

Insights into SARS-CoV-2 Surveillance among Prison Populations in Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil, in 2022.

This study examines the epidemiological and genomic characteristics, along with the transmission dynamics, of SARS-CoV-2 within prison units I and II in Campo Grande, Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil. Conducted between May and October 2022, it reveals how the virus spreads in the confined settings of prisons, emphasizing the roles of overcrowded cells, frequent transfers, and limited healthcare access. The research involved 1927 participants (83.93% of the total prison population) and utilized nasopharyngeal swabs and RT-qPCR testing for detection. Contact tracing monitored exposure within cells. Out of 2108 samples, 66 positive cases were identified (3.13%), mostly asymptomatic (77.27%), with the majority aged 21-29 and varying vaccination statuses. Next-generation sequencing generated 28 whole genome sequences, identifying the Omicron variant (subtypes BA.2 and BA.5) with 99% average coverage. Additionally, the study seeks to determine the relationship between immunization levels and the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 cases within this enclosed population. The findings underscore the necessity of comprehensive control strategies in prisons, including rigorous screening, isolation protocols, vaccination, epidemiological monitoring, and genomic surveillance to mitigate disease transmission and protect both the incarcerated population and the broader community.

Detection of encephalitis-causing viruses reveals predominance of chikungunya virus in the state of Bahia, Brazil.

OBJECTIVES: Encephalitis is a severe neurological syndrome for which herpesvirus and enteroviruses are the most common etiological agents. Arboviruses, a wildly diverse group of pathogens, are also critical epidemiological agents associated with encephalitis. In Brazil, little is known about the causative agents of encephalitis. METHODS: We conducted a hospital surveillance for encephalitis between 2020 and 2022. Molecular (RT-PCR and qPCR) and serological (virus-specific IgM and viral antigens) techniques were performed in cerebrospinal fluid and serum samples obtained from study participants. RESULTS: In the 43 participants evaluated, the etiologic agent or the presence of IgM was detected in 16 (37.2%). Nine (20.9%) cases were positive for chikungunya virus (CHIKV), three (7.0%) for dengue virus, two (4.7%) for human adenovirus, one (2.3%) for varicella-zoster virus, and one (2.3%) for enterovirus. Whole-genome sequencing revealed that the CHIKV identified belongs to the East/Central/South African lineage. CONCLUSION: Herein, CHIKV is a common pathogen identified in encephalitis cases. Our results reinforce previous evidence that chikungunya represents a significant cause of encephalitis during CHIKV outbreaks and epidemics and add to existing information on the epidemiology of encephalitis in Brazil.

High capacity of Brazilian Aedes aegypti populations to transmit a locally circulating lineage of Chikungunya virus.

The global incidence of chikungunya has surged in recent decades, with South America, particularly Brazil, experiencing devastating outbreaks. The primary vector for transmitting CHIKV in urban areas is the mosquito species Aedes aegypti, which is very abundant in Brazil. However, little is known about the impact of locally circulating CHIKV genotypes and specific combinations of mosquito populations on vector competence. In this study, we analyzed and compared the infectivity and transmissibility of a recently isolated CHIKV-ECSA lineage from Brazil among four Ae. aegypti populations collected from different regions of the country. When exposed to CHIKV-infected mice for blood feeding, all mosquito populations showed high infection rates and dissemination efficiency. Moreover, using a mouse model to assess transmission rates in a manner that better mirrors natural cycles, we observed that these populations exhibit highly efficient transmission rates of CHIKV-ECSA. Our findings underscore the robust capability of Brazilian Ae. aegypti populations to transmit the locally circulating CHIKV-ECSA lineage, potentially explaining its higher prevalence compared to the Asian lineage also introduced in Brazil.

Retrospective Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Dengue Virus 1, 2 and 4 in Paraguay.

Dengue virus (DENV) has been a major public health concern in Paraguay, with frequent outbreaks occurring since early 1988. Although control measures have been implemented, dengue remains a significant health threat in the country, and continued efforts are required for prevention and control. In response to that, in collaboration with the Central Public Health Laboratory in Asunción, we conducted a portable whole-genome sequencing and phylodynamic analysis to investigate DENV viral strains circulating in Paraguay over the past epidemics. Our genomic surveillance activities revealed the co-circulation of multiple DENV serotypes: DENV-1 genotype V, the emerging DENV-2 genotype III, BR4-L2 clade, and DENV-4 genotype II. Results additionally highlight the possible role of Brazil as a source for the international dispersion of different viral strains to other countries in the Americas emphasizing the need for increased surveillance across the borders, for the early detection and response to outbreaks. This, in turn, emphasizes the critical role of genomic surveillance in monitoring and understanding arbovirus transmission and persistence locally and over long distances.

Unveiling the Impact of the Omicron Variant: Insights from Genomic Surveillance in Mato Grosso do Sul, Midwest Brazil.

Genomic surveillance has emerged as a crucial tool in monitoring and understanding the dynamics of viral variants during the COVID-19 pandemic. In the Midwest region of Brazil, Mato Grosso do Sul has faced a significant burden from the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic, with a total of 613,000 confirmed cases as of June 2023. In collaboration with the Central Public Health Laboratory in the capital city of Campo Grande, we conducted a portable whole-genome sequencing and phylodynamic analysis to investigate the circulation of the Omicron variant in the region. The study aimed to uncover the genomic landscape and provide valuable insights into the prevalence and transmission patterns of this highly transmissible variant. Our findings revealed an increase in the number of cases within the region during 2022, followed by a gradual decline as a result of the successful impact of the vaccination program together with the capacity of this unpredictable and very transmissible variant to quickly affect the proportion of susceptible population. Genomic data indicated multiple introduction events, suggesting that human mobility played a differential role in the variant's dispersion dynamics throughout the state. These findings emphasize the significance of implementing public health interventions to mitigate further spread and highlight the powerful role of genomic monitoring in promptly tracking and uncovering the circulation of viral strains. Together those results underscore the importance of proactive surveillance, rapid genomic sequencing, and data sharing to facilitate timely public health responses.

Phylogenetic Reconstructions Reveal the Circulation of a Novel Dengue Virus-1V Clade and the Persistence of a Dengue Virus-2 III Genotype in Northeast Brazil.

Dengue fever is among the most significant public health concerns in Brazil. To date, the highest number of Dengue notifications in the Americas has been reported in Brazil, with cases accounting for a total number of 3,418,796 reported cases as of mid-December 2022. Furthermore, the northeastern region of Brazil registered the second-highest incidence of Dengue fever in 2022. Due to the alarming epidemiological scenario, in this study, we used a combination of portable whole-genome sequencing, phylodynamic, and epidemiological analyses to reveal a novel DENV-1 genotype V clade and the persistence of DENV-2 genotype III in the region. We further report the presence of non-synonymous mutations associated with non-structural domains, especially the NS2A (non-structural protein 2A), as well as describe synonymous mutations in envelope and membrane proteins, distributed differently between clades. However, the absence of clinical data at the time of collection and notification, as well as the impossibility of monitoring patients in order to observe worsening or death, restricts our possibility of correlating mutational findings with possible clinical prognoses. Together, these results reinforce the crucial role of genomic surveillance to follow the evolution of circulating DENV strains and understand their spread across the region through inter-regional importation events, likely mediated by human mobility, and also the possible impacts on public health and outbreak management.

Increased interregional virus exchange and nucleotide diversity outline the expansion of the chikungunya virus ECSA lineage in Brazil.

The emergence and reemergence of mosquito-borne diseases in Brazil such as Yellow Fever, Zika, Chikungunya, and Dengue have had serious impacts on public health. Concerns have been raised due to the rapid dissemination of the chikungunya virus (CHIKV) across the country since its first detection in 2014 in Northeast Brazil. Faced with this scenario, on-site training activities in genomic surveillance carried out in partnership with the National Network of Public Health Laboratories have led to the generation of 422 CHIKV genomes from 12 Brazilian states over the past two years (2021-2022), a period that has seen more than 312 thousand chikungunya fever cases reported in the country. These new genomes increased the amount of available data and allowed a more comprehensive characterization of the dispersion dynamics of the CHIKV East-Central-South-African (ECSA) lineage in Brazil. Tree branching patterns revealed the emergence and expansion of two distinct subclades. Phylogeographic analysis indicated that the northeast region has been the leading hub of virus spread towards other regions. Increased frequency of C>T transitions among the new genomes suggested that host restriction factors from the immune system such as ADAR and AID/APOBEC deaminases might be driving CHIKV ECSA lineage genetic diversity in Brazil.

Increased interregional virus exchange and nucleotide diversity outline the expansion of chikungunya virus in Brazil.

The emergence and reemergence of mosquito-borne diseases in Brazil such as yellow fever, zika, chikungunya, and dengue have had serious impacts on public health. Concerns have been raised due to the rapid dissemination of the chikungunya virus across the country since its first detection in 2014 in Northeast Brazil. In this work, we carried out on-site training activities in genomic surveillance in partnership with the National Network of Public Health Laboratories that have led to the generation of 422 chikungunya virus genomes from 12 Brazilian states over the past two years (2021-2022), a period that has seen more than 312 thousand chikungunya fever cases reported in the country. These genomes increased the amount of available data and allowed a more comprehensive characterization of the dispersal dynamics of the chikungunya virus East-Central-South-African lineage in Brazil. Tree branching patterns revealed the emergence and expansion of two distinct subclades. Phylogeographic analysis indicated that the northeast region has been the leading hub of virus spread towards other regions. Increased frequency of C > T transitions among the new genomes suggested that host restriction factors from the immune system such as ADAR and AID/APOBEC deaminases might be driving the genetic diversity of the chikungunya virus in Brazil.

Dengue Fever Surveillance in Mato Grosso do Sul: Insights from Genomic Analysis and Implications for Public Health Strategies.

Since its discovery in early 1916, dengue fever, a common vector-borne illness in Brazil, has resulted in extensive urban outbreaks and poses a serious threat to the public's health. Understanding the dynamics of Dengue Virus (DENV) serotypes circulating in different regions of Brazil is essential for implementing effective disease control and prevention measures. In response to this urgent need, we conducted an on-site training program in genomic surveillance in collaboration with the Central Laboratory of Health and the Secretary of Health of the Mato Grosso do Sul state. This initiative resulted in the generation of 177 DENV genome sequences collected between May 2021 and May 2022, a period during which over 11,391 dengue fever cases were reported in the state. Through this approach, we were able to identify the co-circulation of two different dengue serotypes (DENV1 and DENV2) as well as the existence of diverse viral lineages within each genotype, suggesting that multiple introduction events of different viral strains occurred in the region. By integrating epidemiological data, our findings unveiled temporal fluctuations in the relative abundance of different serotypes throughout various epidemic seasons, highlighting the complex and changing dynamics of DENV transmission throughout time. These findings demonstrate the value of ongoing surveillance activities in tracking viral transmission patterns, monitoring viral evolution, and informing public health actions.

Rapid epidemic expansion of chikungunya virus-ECSA lineage in Paraguay.

The spread of vector-borne viruses, such as CHIKV, is a significant public health concern in the Americas, with over 120,000 cases and 51 deaths in 2023, of which 46 occurred in Paraguay. Using a suite of genomic, phylodynamic, and epidemiological techniques, we characterized the ongoing large CHIKV epidemic in Paraguay. Article Summary Line: Genomic and epidemiological characterization of the ongoing Chikungunya virus epidemic in Paraguay.

Genomic epidemiology unveils the dynamics and spatial corridor behind the Yellow Fever virus outbreak in Southern Brazil.

Despite the considerable morbidity and mortality of yellow fever virus (YFV) infections in Brazil, our understanding of disease outbreaks is hampered by limited viral genomic data. Here, through a combination of phylogenetic and epidemiological models, we reconstructed the recent transmission history of YFV within different epidemic seasons in Brazil. A suitability index based on the highly domesticated Aedes aegypti was able to capture the seasonality of reported human infections. Spatial modeling revealed spatial hotspots with both past reporting and low vaccination coverage, which coincided with many of the largest urban centers in the Southeast. Phylodynamic analysis unraveled the circulation of three distinct lineages and provided proof of the directionality of a known spatial corridor that connects the endemic North with the extra-Amazonian basin. This study illustrates that genomics linked with eco-epidemiology can provide new insights into the landscape of YFV transmission, augmenting traditional approaches to infectious disease surveillance and control.

A Multiplex Nanopore Sequencing Approach for the Detection of Multiple Arboviral Species.

The emergence and continued geographic expansion of arboviruses and the growing number of infected people have highlighted the need to develop and improve multiplex methods for rapid and specific detection of pathogens. Sequencing technologies are promising tools that can help in the laboratory diagnosis of conditions that share common symptoms, such as pathologies caused by emerging arboviruses. In this study, we integrated nanopore sequencing and the advantages of reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) to develop a multiplex RT-PCR protocol for the detection of Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) and several orthoflaviviruses (such as dengue (Orthoflavivirus dengue), Zika (Orthoflavivirus zikaense), yellow fever (Orthoflavivirus flavi), and West Nile (Orthoflavivirus nilense) viruses) in a single reaction, which provides data for sequence-based differentiation of arbovirus lineages.

Retrospective Genomic Surveillance of Chikungunya Transmission in Minas Gerais State, Southeast Brazil.

Brazil accounted for a total number of 1,276,194 reported cases of chikungunya fever between 2014 and 2022. Additionally, since 2015, the country has experienced an increasing death toll, in which the Northeast and Southeast regions appear to report the worst scenarios. Although the CHIKV transmission dynamics have been studied in many parts of the country since its introduction in 2014, little is still known about chikungunya virus (CHIKV) transmission and genetic diversity in the state of Minas Gerais, located in southeast Brazil. Moreover, no studies have been published characterizing CHIKV genomic surveillance in this state. Thus, to retrospectively explore the CHIKV epidemic in Minas Gerais, we generated 40 genomes from clinical samples using Nanopore sequencing. Phylogenetic analysis indicated that multiple introductions of CHIKV occurred, likely from the northeastern Brazilian states, with the most recent common ancestral strain dating to early March 2016, which is in agreement with local epidemiological reports. Additionally, epidemiological data reveals a decline in the number of reported cases from 2017 to 2021, indicating that population immunity or changes in vector activity may have contributed to the decreasing waves of CHIKV infection. Together, our results shed light on the dispersion dynamics of CHIKV and show that infections decreased from March 2017 to January 2021 despite multiple introductions into Minas Gerais State. In conclusion, our study highlights the importance of combining genomic and epidemiological data in order to assist public health laboratories in monitoring and understanding the patterns and diversity of mosquito-borne viral epidemics. IMPORTANCE Arbovirus infections in Brazil, including chikungunya, dengue, yellow fever, and Zika, result in considerable morbidity and mortality and are pressing public health concerns. However, our understanding of these outbreaks is hampered by the limited availability of genomic data. In this study, we combine epidemiological analysis and portable genome sequencing to retrospectively describe the CHIKV epidemic in Minas Gerais between 2017 and 2021. Our results indicate that the East/Central/South African (ECSA) CHIKV lineage was introduced into Minas Gerais by three distinct events, likely from the North and Northeast regions of Brazil. Our study provides an understanding of how CHIKV initiates transmission in the region and illustrates that genomics in the field can augment traditional approaches to infectious disease surveillance and control.

Retrospective Investigation in Horses with Encephalitis Reveals Unnoticed Circulation of West Nile Virus in Brazil.

During these past years, several studies have provided serological evidence regarding the circulation of West Nile virus (WNV) in Brazil. Despite some reports, much is still unknown regarding the genomic diversity and transmission dynamics of this virus in the country. Recently, genomic monitoring activities in horses revealed the circulation of WNV in several Brazilian regions. These findings on the paucity of genomic data reinforce the need for prompt investigation of WNV infection in horses, which may precede human cases of encephalitis in Brazil. Thus, in this study, we retrospectively screened 54 suspicious WNV samples collected between 2017 and 2020 from the spinal cord and brain of horses with encephalitis and generated three new WNV genomes from the Ceará and Bahia states, located in the northeastern region of Brazil. The Bayesian reconstruction revealed that at least two independent introduction events occurred in Brazil. The first introduction event appears to be likely related to the North American outbreak, and was estimated to have occurred in March 2013.The second introduction event appears to have occurred in September 2017 and appears to be likely related to the South American outbreak. Together, our results reinforce the importance of increasing the priority of WNV genomic monitoring in equines with encephalitis in order to track the dispersion of this emerging pathogen through the country.

Retrospective Analysis of the SARS-CoV-2 Infection Profile in COVID-19 Positive Patients in Vitoria da Conquista, Northeast Brazil.

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) is responsible for causing Coronavirus Disease-2019 (COVID-19), a heterogeneous clinical condition that manifests varying symptom severity according to the demographic profile of the studied population. While many studies have focused on the spread of COVID-19 in large urban centers in Brazil, few have evaluated medium or small cities in the Northeast region. The aims of this study were: (i) to identify risk factors for mortality from SARS-CoV-2 infection, (ii) to evaluate the gene expression patterns of key immune response pathways using nasopharyngeal swabs of COVID-19 patients, and (iii) to identify the circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants in the residents of a medium-sized city in Northeast Brazil. A total of 783 patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 between May 2020 and August 2021 were included in this study. Clinical-epidemiological data from patients who died and those who survived were compared. Patients were also retrospectively divided into three groups based on disease severity: asymptomatic, mild, and moderate/severe. Samples were added to a qPCR array for analyses of 84 genes involved with immune response pathways and sequenced using the Oxford Nanopore MinION technology. Having pre-existing comorbidity; being male; having cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and/or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; and PCR cycle threshold (Ct) values under 22 were identified as risk factors for mortality. Analysis of the expression profiles of inflammatory pathway genes showed that the greater the infection severity, the greater the activation of inflammatory pathways, triggering the cytokine storm and downregulating anti-inflammatory pathways. Viral genome analysis revealed the circulation of multiple lineages, such as B.1, B.1.1.28, Alpha, and Gamma, suggesting that multiple introduction events had occurred over time. This study's findings help identify the specific strains and increase our understanding of the true state of local health. In addition, our data demonstrate that epidemiological and genomic surveillance together can help formulate public health strategies to guide governmental actions.

Genomic epidemiology of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Brazil.

The high numbers of COVID-19 cases and deaths in Brazil have made Latin America an epicentre of the pandemic. SARS-CoV-2 established sustained transmission in Brazil early in the pandemic, but important gaps remain in our understanding of virus transmission dynamics at a national scale. We use 17,135 near-complete genomes sampled from 27 Brazilian states and bordering country Paraguay. From March to November 2020, we detected co-circulation of multiple viral lineages that were linked to multiple importations (predominantly from Europe). After November 2020, we detected large, local transmission clusters within the country. In the absence of effective restriction measures, the epidemic progressed, and in January 2021 there was emergence and onward spread, both within and abroad, of variants of concern and variants under monitoring, including Gamma (P.1) and Zeta (P.2). We also characterized a genomic overview of the epidemic in Paraguay and detected evidence of importation of SARS-CoV-2 ancestor lineages and variants of concern from Brazil. Our findings show that genomic surveillance in Brazil enabled assessment of the real-time spread of emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants.