Chronic Hepatitis B Finite Treatment: Similar and Different Concerns With New Drug Classes.

Chronic hepatitis B, a major cause of liver disease and cancer, affects >250 million people worldwide. Currently there is no cure, only suppressive therapies. Efforts to develop finite curative hepatitis B virus (HBV) therapies are underway, consisting of combinations of multiple novel agents with or without nucleos(t)ide reverse-transcriptase inhibitors. The HBV Forum convened a webinar in July 2021, along with subsequent working group discussions to address how and when to stop finite therapy for demonstration of sustained off-treatment efficacy and safety responses. Participants included leading experts in academia, clinical practice, pharmaceutical companies, patient representatives, and regulatory agencies. This Viewpoints article outlines areas of consensus within our multistakeholder group for stopping finite therapies in chronic hepatitis B investigational studies, including trial design, patient selection, outcomes, biomarkers, predefined stopping criteria, predefined retreatment criteria, duration of investigational therapies, and follow-up after stopping therapy. Future research of unmet needs are discussed.

Estimating the reduction in US mortality if cigarettes were largely replaced by e-cigarettes.

BACKGROUND: Recent estimates indicated substantially replacing cigarettes by e-cigarettes would, during 2016-2100, reduce US deaths and life-years lost (millions) by 6.6 and 86.7 (Optimistic Scenario) and 1.6 and 20.8 (Pessimistic). To provide additional insight we use alternative modelling based on a shorter period (1991-2040), four main smoking-associated diseases, deaths aged 30-79 years, and a full product history. We consider variations in: assumed effective dose of e-cigarettes versus cigarettes (F); their relative quitting rate (Q); proportions smoking after 10 years (X); and initiation rate (I) of vaping, relative to smoking. METHODS: We set F = 0.05, X = 5%, Q = 1.0 and I = 1.0 (Main Scenario) and F = 0.4, X = 10%, Q = 0.5 and I = 1.5 (Pessimistic Scenario). Sensitivity Analyses varied Main Scenario parameters singly; F from 0 to 0.4, X 0.01% to 15%, and Q and I 0.5 to 1.5. To allow comparison with prior work, individuals cannot be dual users, re-initiate, or switch except from cigarettes to e-cigarettes. RESULTS: Main Scenario reductions were 2.52 and 26.23 million deaths and life-years lost; Pessimistic Scenario reductions were 0.76 and 8.31 million. These were less than previously, due to the more limited age-range and follow-up, and restriction to four diseases. Reductions in deaths (millions) varied most for X, from 3.22 (X = 0.01%) to 1.31 (X = 15%), and F, 2.74 (F = 0) to 1.35 (F = 0.4). Varying Q or I had little effect. CONCLUSIONS: Substantial reductions in deaths and life-years lost were observed even under pessimistic assumptions. Estimates varied most for X and F. These findings supplement literature indicating e-cigarettes can importantly impact health challenges from smoking.

Estimating the public health impact had tobacco-free nicotine pouches been introduced into the US in 2000.

BACKGROUND: For smokers not intending to quit, switching to a reduced-risk nicotine product should be healthier than continuing smoking. We estimate the health impact, over the period 2000-2050, had the nicotine pouch ZYN hypothetically been introduced into the US in 2000. ZYN's toxicant profile and method of use is like that for Swedish snus, a product with known health effects much less than smoking. METHODS: Our modelling approach is similar to others developed for estimating potential effects of new tobacco products. It starts with a simulated cohort of 100,000 individuals in the year 2000 subdivided by age, sex, and smoking status (including years since quitting). They are followed annually accounting for births, net immigrations, deaths and product use changes, with follow-up carried out in the Base Case (ZYN not introduced) and Modified Case (ZYN introduced). Using informed assumptions about initiation, quitting and switching rates, distributions of the population over time are then constructed for each Case, and used to estimate product mortality based on assumptions about the relative risk according to product use. RESULTS: Whereas in both Base and Modified Cases, the prevalence of any current product use is predicted to decline from about 22% to 10% during follow-up, in the Modified Case about 25% of current users use ZYN by 2050, about a quarter being dual users and the rest ZYN-only users. Over the 50 years, deaths at ages 35-84 from product use among the 100,000 are estimated as 249 less in the Modified than the Base Case, equivalent to about 700,000 less in the whole US. Sensitivity analyses varying individual parameter values confirm the benefits of switching to ZYN, which increase as either the switching rate to ZYN increases or the initiation rate of ZYN relative to smoking increases. Even assuming the reduction in excess mortality risk using ZYN use is 20% of that from smoking rather than the 3.5% assumed in the main analyses, the reduction in product-related deaths would still be 213, or about 600,000 in the US. CONCLUSIONS: Although such model-based estimates involve uncertainties, the results suggest that introducing ZYN could substantially reduce product-related deaths.

Attention to Authority: The behavioural finance of Covid-19.

In this paper we investigate the predictability of cryptocurrency returns following increases in Covid-19 cases/deaths. We find that the rate of government intervention moderates the impact that Covid-19 cases/deaths have on cryptocurrency returns. We show that in periods of tightening government intervention, increases in Covid-19 cases positively predict cryptocurrency returns. We argue that this is due to investors imputing their expectations of the pandemic through a 'combined' signal.

JNJ-56136379, an HBV Capsid Assembly Modulator, Is Well-Tolerated and Has Antiviral Activity in a Phase 1 Study of Patients With Chronic Infection.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: JNJ-56136379 (JNJ-6379), a capsid assembly modulator that blocks hepatitis B virus (HBV) replication, was well tolerated and demonstrated dose-proportional pharmacokinetics in healthy participants in part 1 of its first clinical trial. In part 2, we have evaluated the safety, pharmacokinetics, and antiviral activity of multiple doses of JNJ-6379 in patients with chronic HBV infection. METHODS: We performed a double-blind study of 57 treatment-naïve patients with HB e antigen-positive or -negative (74%) chronic HBV infection without cirrhosis. Patients were randomly assigned to groups given JNJ-6379 at 25 mg (100 mg loading dose), 75 mg, 150 mg, or 250 mg or placebo daily for 4 weeks with an 8-week follow-up period. RESULTS: Twenty-three (56%) of 41 patients given JNJ-6379 had at least 1 adverse event (AE) during treatment, compared with 10 (63%) of 16 patients given placebo. No serious AEs were reported during the treatment period. Three patients (7%) given JNJ-6379 vs none given placebo had grade 3 AEs; of these, 1 patient (150 mg) also had an isolated grade 4 increase in the level of alanine aminotransferase that led to treatment discontinuation. JNJ-6379 exposure increased with dose, with time-linear pharmacokinetics. HBV-DNA and HBV-RNA decreased from baseline in patients receiving all doses of JNJ-6379, independently of viral genotype and HB e antigen status. On day 29, 13 (32%) of 41 patients had levels of HBV DNA below the lower limit of quantification. No clinically significant changes in levels of HB surface antigen were observed. CONCLUSIONS: In a phase 1 study of treatment-naïve patients with chronic HBV infection, all doses tested of JNJ-6379 were well tolerated, showed dose-dependent pharmacokinetics, and had potent antiviral activity in patients with CHB. The findings support a phase 2a study to evaluate JNJ-6379 ± nucleos(t)ide analogs in patients with chronic HBV infection, which is under way. ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02662712.

Antiviral Activity, Safety, and Pharmacokinetics of AL-794, a Novel Oral Influenza Endonuclease Inhibitor: Results of an Influenza Human Challenge Study.

Background: AL-794 is an orally active prodrug of ALS-033719, which selectively inhibits the endonuclease domain of influenza virus A and B polymerase. Methods: In a phase 1, double-blinded, randomized, placebo-controlled study, healthy subjects were inoculated intranasally with influenza virus (A/Perth/16/2009 H3N2) after confirmation of infection or on day 4. Subjects received 50 mg of AL-794, 150 mg of AL-794, or placebo twice daily for 5 days. Viral load, influenza symptoms, pharmacokinetics, and safety were evaluated. Results: A total of 61 subjects were inoculated. In 42 infected subjects, the mean peak viral load for 50-mg AL-794 recipients, 150-mg AL-794 recipients, and placebo recipients was 3.54, 2.77, and 3.72 log10 50% tissue culture infectious doses (TCID50)/mL, respectively. The mean influenza viral load area under the curve in the corresponding treatment groups was 137, 87.5, and 142 log10 TCID50/mL·h, respectively, and the median time to virus nondetection was 117, 75.3, and 108 hours, respectively. AL-794 was well tolerated, and no viral resistance to ALS-033719 was identified. Conclusion: Following oral administration of AL-794, significant dose-dependent antiviral activity was noted, with a greater decrease in viral load, symptoms, and mucus weight at the 150-mg dose, compared with the 50-mg dose, and no safety concerns for either dose or placebo. Clinical Trials Registration: NCT02588521.

Respiratory syncytial virus-A dynamics and the effects of lumicitabine, a nucleoside viral replication inhibitor, in experimentally infected humans.

Background: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) causes high morbidity, with mortality rates approaching or exceeding that of influenza in adult and infant patient populations, respectively. Lumicitabine (ALS-008176 or JNJ-64041575) is an oral nucleoside analogue prodrug in clinical development to treat RSV infections. This prodrug converts to plasma-circulating ALS-8112, and then to the 5'-active nucleoside triphosphate (NTP) form within host cells. We conducted an RSV-A challenge study in healthy adults to evaluate lumicitabine's activity during an active RSV infection. Objectives: To develop a semi-mechanistic mathematical model describing RSV kinetics, and the pharmacokinetics (PK) and pharmacodynamics (PD) of lumicitabine during treatment. Methods: Nasopharyngeal viral load and concentrations of ALS-8112 and ALS-8144 (uridine metabolite) were measured frequently over the study duration. Population viral kinetic and PK/PD models were developed using NONMEM. The RSV life-cycle was described using a target-cell-limited model that included a physiological delay. Results: The estimated clearances of ALS-8112 and ALS-8144 were 54.2 and 115 L/h/70 kg, respectively. A semi-physiological model was linked to predict ALS-8112 conversion to active intracellular NTP. Extensive and rapid RSV reduction occurred after lumicitabine treatment (EC50 = 1.79 µM), with >99% viral inhibition at 2 h after loading dose. Simulated NTP exposures and time to EC50 attainment suggested that rapid therapeutic effects and reduced dosing frequency are achievable in adult and paediatric patients. Conclusions: The semi-mechanistic model characterizes RSV kinetics and the antiviral effectiveness of lumicitabine in an adult challenge population. This model is applicable to guide dose selection in adult and paediatric patients.

Short-Duration AL-335, Odalasvir, With or Without Simeprevir, in Patients With HCV GT1 or 3 Infection Without Cirrhosis.

This open-label, phase IIa study assessed the safety, pharmacokinetics, and efficacy of direct-acting antiviral agent (DAA) regimens in patients with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. Multiple 6-12-week oral regimens of 400-800 mg once daily (QD) AL-335 + 50 mg QD/every other day odalasvir ± 75-150 mg QD simeprevir were evaluated in treatment-naïve, HCV genotype (GT)1/3-infected patients without cirrhosis. Safety/pharmacokinetic parameters, HCV-RNA, and sequencing data were assessed. Treatment regimens for later study cohorts were adjusted based on emerging data. In total, 112 patients were enrolled. Three serious treatment-emergent adverse events occurred, one of which (a Mobitz type 1 second-degree atrioventricular block [Wenckebach]) was possibly related to high odalasvir exposure and resulted in premature discontinuation of study drugs. No other clinically significant safety findings were identified. GT1-infected patients receiving 3-DAA for 6-8 weeks achieved 100% sustained virologic response 12 weeks and 24 weeks after the end of treatment (sustained virologic response [SVR12/24]). GT1-infected patients receiving 2-DAA or GT3-infected patients receiving 3-DAA had SVR12/24 less than 90%, whether treated for 8 weeks or 12 weeks. Virologic failure was associated with the emergence of generally persistent NS5A and/or transient NS5B resistance-associated substitutions in most patients. Pharmacokinetic characteristics of the three drugs were also elucidated. Conclusions: In treatment-naïve subjects without cirrhosis, AL-335 + odalasvir + simeprevir for 6-8 weeks was generally safe and highly efficacious against HCV GT1. However, inadequate efficacy was observed for the 2-DAA regimen in GT1-infected subjects and the 3-DAA regimen in GT3-infected subjects.

Using data on snus use in Sweden to compare different modelling approaches to estimate the population health impact of introducing a smoke-free tobacco product.

BACKGROUND: We have developed an approach for modelling the health impact of introducing new smoke-free tobacco products. We wished to compare its estimates with those of alternative approaches, when applied to snus, used in Sweden for many years. METHODS: Modelling was restricted to men aged 30-79 years for 1980-2009 and to four smoking-related diseases. Mortality data were extracted for Sweden and other European countries. Published data provided Swedish prevalence estimates for combinations of never/former/current smoking and snus use, and smoking prevalence estimates for other European countries. Approach 1 compares mortality in Sweden and in other countries with a smoking prevalence similar to Sweden's prevalence of combined smoking/snus use. Approaches 2 and 3 compare mortality in Sweden with hypothetical mortality had snus users smoked. Approach 3 uses our health impact model, individuals starting with the tobacco prevalence of Sweden in 1980. Tobacco histories during 30-year follow-up were then estimated using transition probabilities, with risk derived using a negative exponential model. Approach 2 uses annual tobacco prevalence estimates coupled with estimates of relative risk of current and former smokers regardless of history. The main applications of Approaches 2 and 3 assume that only smoking affects mortality, though sensitivity analyses using Approach 3 allow for risk to vary in snus users and dual users. RESULTS: Using Approach 2, estimated mortality increases in Sweden in 1980-2009 had snus not been introduced were: lung cancer 8786; COPD 1781; IHD 10,409; stroke 1720. The main Approach 3 estimates were similar (7931, 1969; 12,501; 1901). They decreased as risk in snus users and dual users increased. Approach 1 estimates differed wildly (77,762, 32,538; 77,438; 76,946), remaining very different following correction for differences between Sweden and the comparison countries in non-smoking-related disease mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Approach 1 is unreliable, accounting inadequately for non-tobacco factors affecting mortality. Approaches 2 and 3 provide reasonably similar approximate estimates of the mortality increase had snus not been available, but have differing advantages and disadvantages. Only Approach 3 considers tobacco history, but develops histories using tobacco transition probabilities, which is possibly less reliable than using estimated tobacco prevalences at each follow-up year.

Updating the evidence relating smoking bans to incidence of heart disease.

In our latest update of the evidence on smoking bans and heart disease we summarize 59 studies. We take account of the underlying trends in incidence rates as far as possible by using control data in eight studies, and by adjustment based on observed trends in cases pre- and post-ban in 40 studies, being unable to make an adjustment in the remaining 11 studies. Overall, based on 62 independent estimates from the 59 studies, we estimate that bans reduce incidence by 5.0% (95% CI 3.2-6.8%), though this estimate reduces to 2.9% (0.01-5.6%) when we exclude regional estimates where national estimates are available, and studies where trend adjustment is not possible. For 25 of the studies, quadratic rather than linear adjustment is possible, but this hardly affects the overall estimates. Ban effects are somewhat greater when the pre-ban period studied is relatively short, and in smaller studies. We compare our findings with those in other recent reviews, one of which totally ignored underlying trends and results from control populations. We discuss reasons why we believe there is likely to be a true small effect of smoking bans, and weaknesses in the data which preclude reaching any very confident conclusion.

Activity of Oral ALS-008176 in a Respiratory Syncytial Virus Challenge Study.

BACKGROUND Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection is a cause of substantial morbidity and mortality. There is no known effective therapy. METHODS We conducted a randomized, double-blind, clinical trial in healthy adults inoculated with RSV. Participants received the oral nucleoside analogue ALS-008176 or placebo 12 hours after confirmation of RSV infection or 6 days after inoculation. Treatment was administered every 12 hours for 5 days. Viral load, disease severity, resistance, and safety were measured throughout the 28-day study period, with measurement beginning before inoculation. The primary end point was the area under the curve (AUC) for viral load, which was assessed immediately before administration of the first dose through the 12th day after inoculation in participants infected with RSV. RESULTS A total of 62 participants received placebo or one of three ALS-008176 dosing regimens: 1 loading dose of 750 mg followed by 9 maintenance doses of 500 mg (group 1), 1 loading dose of 750 mg followed by 9 maintenance doses of 150 mg (group 2), or 10 doses of 375 mg (group 3). In the 35 infected participants (23 of whom were treated with ALS-008176), the AUCs for viral load for groups 1, 2, and 3 and the placebo group were 59.9, 73.7, 133.4, and 500.9 log10 plaque-forming-unit equivalents × hours per milliliter, respectively (P≤0.001). The time to nondetectability on polymerase-chain-reaction assay (P<0.001), the peak viral load (P≤0.001), the AUC for symptom score (P<0.05), and the AUC for mucus weight were lower in all groups receiving ALS-008176 than in the placebo group. Antiviral activity was greatest in the two groups that received a loading dose--viral clearance was accelerated (P≤0.05), and the AUC for viral load decreased by 85 to 88% as compared with the placebo group. Within this small trial, no viral rebound or resistance was identified. There were no serious adverse events, and there was no need for premature discontinuation of the study drug. CONCLUSIONS In this RSV challenge study, more rapid RSV clearance and a greater reduction of viral load, with accompanying improvements in the severity of clinical disease, were observed in the groups treated with ALS-008176 than in the placebo group. (Funded by Alios BioPharma; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02094365.).

Investigation into the risk of ultra-low tar cigarettes and lung cancer.

We present analyses relating cigarette type to lung cancer based on a case-control study in five European countries. The analyses involved 3561 cases and 2301 controls with diseases not associated with smoking. Subjects completed a detailed questionnaire, including a lifetime smoking history. Analyses included never smokers, and those who smoked for at least 80% of the "critical period" from 2 to 20 years before diagnosis, ignoring those who ever smoked pipes or cigars, or chewed tobacco. The main analysis compares risk in those who, in the critical period, smoked ultra-low tar (ULT) cigarettes (machine yield ≤3 mg tar/cigarette) for 8 + years, with those who only smoked full flavour (FF) cigarettes (≥10 mg tar/cigarette). After adjustment for sex, age, country, education, age of starting smoking, mean cigarette consumption and mean tar level 21-50 years before interview, the odds ratio (OR) was 0.73 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.50-1.06). Other analyses showed a modest, not statistically significant, reduction in risk with tar reduction. Risk in ULT smokers for 8 + years was substantially higher than in never smokers (OR 16.27, 95% CI 10.14-26.09). The study was prematurely terminated due to cost overrun, limiting the power to detect an association. More evidence is needed, particularly on lifetime ULT smoking.

Estimating the effect of differing assumptions on the population health impact of introducing a Reduced Risk Tobacco Product in the USA.

We use Population Health Impact Modelling to assess effects on tobacco prevalence and mortality of introducing a Reduced Risk Tobacco Product (RRP). Simulated samples start in 1990 with a US-representative smoking prevalence. Individual tobacco histories are updated annually until 2010 using estimated probabilities of switching between never/current/former smoking where the RRP is not introduced, with current users subdivided into cigarette/RRP/dual users where it is. RRP-related mortality reductions from lung cancer, IHD, stroke and COPD are derived from the histories and the assumed relative risks of the RRP. A basic analysis assumes a hypothetical RRP reduces effective dose 80% in users and 40% in dual users, with an uptake rate generating ∼10% RRP and ∼6% dual users among current users after 10 years. Sensitivity study changes in tobacco prevalence and mortality from varying effective doses, current smoking risks, quitting half-lives and rates of initiation, switching, re-initiation and cessation. They also study extreme situations (e.g. everyone using RRP), and investigate assumptions which might eliminate the RRP-related mortality reduction. The mortality reduction is proportional to the dose reduction, increasing rapidly with time of follow-up. Plausible increases in re-initiation or dual users' consumption, or decreased quitting by smokers would not eliminate the drop.

On the connection between nonmonotonic taste behavior and molecular conformation in solution: The case of rebaudioside-A.

The diterpene steviol glycoside, rebaudioside A, is a natural high potency non-caloric sweetener extracted from the leaves of Stevia rebaudiana. This compound shows a parabolic change in sweet taste intensity with temperature which contrasts with the general finding for other synthetic or natural sweeteners whose sweet taste increases with temperature. The nonmonotonic taste behavior was determined by sensory analysis using large taste panels. The conformational landscape of rebaudioside A was established at a range of temperatures by means of nuclear magnetic resonance and molecular dynamics simulation. The relationship between various conformations and the observed sweetness of rebaudioside A is described.

Is the shape of the decline in risk following quitting smoking similar for squamous cell carcinoma and adenocarcinoma of the lung? A quantitative review using the negative exponential model.

One possible contributor to the reported rise in the ratio of adenocarcinoma to squamous cell carcinoma of the lung may be differences in the pattern of decline in risk following quitting for the two lung cancer types. Earlier, using data from 85 studies comparing overall lung cancer risks in current smokers, quitters (by time quit) and never smokers, we fitted the negative exponential model, deriving an estimate of 9.93years for the half-life - the time when the excess risk for quitters compared to never smokers becomes half that for continuing smokers. Here we applied the same techniques to data from 16 studies providing RRs specific for lung cancer type. From the 13 studies where the half-life was estimable for each type, we derived estimates of 11.68 (95% CI 10.22-13.34) for squamous cell carcinoma and 14.45 (11.92-17.52) for adenocarcinoma. The ratio of the half-lives was estimated as 1.32 (95% CI 1.20-1.46, p<0.001). The slower decline in quitters for adenocarcinoma, evident in subgroups by sex, age and other factors, may be one of the factors contributing to the reported rise in the ratio of adenocarcinoma to squamous cell carcinoma. Others include changes in the diagnosis and classification of lung cancer.

A phase 1, multicenter, open-label, dose escalation study of elotuzumab in patients with advanced multiple myeloma.

This multicenter, first-in-human study evaluated the safety, tolerability, and pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic properties of the anti-CS1 monoclonal antibody elotuzumab. A standard 3 + 3 design was used to determine maximum tolerated dose; dose-limiting toxicities were assessed during cycle 1. Thirty-five patients with relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma were treated with intravenous elotuzumab at doses ranging from 0.5 to 20 mg/kg every 2 weeks. Patients who achieved at least stable disease after 4 treatments could receive another 4 treatments. No maximum tolerated dose was identified up to the maximum planned dose of 20 mg/kg. The most common adverse events, regardless of attribution, were cough, headache, back pain, fever, and chills. Adverse events were generally mild to moderate in severity, and adverse events attributed to study medication were primarily infusion-related. Plasma elotuzumab levels and terminal half-life increased with dose whereas clearance decreased, suggesting target-mediated clearance. CS1 on bone marrow-derived plasma cells was reliably saturated (≥ 95%) at the 10-mg/kg and 20-mg/kg dose levels. Using the European Group for Bone and Marrow Transplantation myeloma response criteria, 9 patients (26.5%) had stable disease. In summary, elotuzumab was generally well tolerated in this population, justifying further exploration of this agent in combination regimens.

Estimating the decline in excess risk of cerebrovascular disease following quitting smoking--a systematic review based on the negative exponential model.

We attempted to quantify the decline in stroke risk following quitting using the negative exponential model, with methodology previously employed for IHD. We identified 22 blocks of RRs (from 13 studies) comparing current smokers, former smokers (by time quit) and never smokers. Corresponding pseudo-numbers of cases and controls/at risk formed the data for model-fitting. We tried to estimate the half-life (H, time since quit when the excess risk becomes half that for a continuing smoker) for each block. The method failed to converge or produced very variable estimates of H in nine blocks with a current smoker RR <1.40. Rejecting these, and combining blocks by amount smoked in one study where problems arose in model-fitting, the final analyses used 11 blocks. Goodness-of-fit was adequate for each block, the combined estimate of H being 4.78(95%CI 2.17-10.50) years. However, considerable heterogeneity existed, unexplained by any factor studied, with the random-effects estimate 3.08(1.32-7.16). Sensitivity analyses allowing for reverse causation or differing assumed times for the final quitting period gave similar results. The estimates of H are similar for stroke and IHD, and the individual estimates similarly heterogeneous. Fitting the model is harder for stroke, due to its weaker association with smoking.

Estimating the decline in excess risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease following quitting smoking - a systematic review based on the negative exponential model.

We quantified the decline in COPD risk following quitting using the negative exponential model, as previously carried out for other smoking-related diseases. We identified 14 blocks of RRs (from 11 studies) comparing current smokers, former smokers (by time quit) and never smokers, some studies providing sex-specific blocks. Corresponding pseudo-numbers of cases and controls/at risk formed the data for model-fitting. We estimated the half-life (H, time since quit when the excess risk becomes half that for a continuing smoker) for each block, except for one where no decline with quitting was evident, and H was not estimable. For the remaining 13 blocks, goodness-of-fit to the model was generally adequate, the combined estimate of H being 13.32 (95% CI 11.86-14.96) years. There was no heterogeneity in H, overall or by various studied sources. Sensitivity analyses allowing for reverse causation or different assumed times for the final quitting period little affected the results. The model summarizes quitting data well. The estimate of 13.32years is substantially larger than recent estimates of 4.40years for ischaemic heart disease and 4.78years for stroke, and also larger than the 9.93years for lung cancer. Heterogeneity was unimportant for COPD, unlike for the other three diseases.

A review of the evidence on smoking bans and incidence of heart disease.

We update an earlier review of smoking bans and heart disease, restricting attention to admissions for acute myocardial infarction. Forty-five studies are considered. New features of our update include consideration of non-linear trends in the underlying rate, a modified trend adjustment method where there are multiple time periods post-ban, comparison of estimates based on changes in rates and numbers of cases, and comparison of effect estimates according to post-ban changes in smoking restrictiveness. Using a consistent approach to derive ban effect estimates, taking account of linear time trends and control data, the reduction in risk following a ban was estimated as 4.2% (95% confidence interval 1.8-6.5%). Excluding regional estimates where national estimates are available, and studies where trend adjustment was not possible, the estimate reduced to 2.6% (1.1-4.0%). Estimates were little affected by non-linear trend adjustment, where possible, or by basing estimates on changes in rates. Ban effect estimates tended to be greater in smaller studies, and studies with greater post-ban changes in smoking restrictiveness. Though the findings suggest a true effect of smoking bans, uncertainties remain, due to the weakness of much of the evidence, the small estimated effect, and various possibilities of bias.