Spatial evolutionary epidemiology of spreading epidemics.

Most spatial models of host-parasite interactions either neglect the possibility of pathogen evolution or consider that this process is slow enough for epidemiological dynamics to reach an equilibrium on a fast timescale. Here, we propose a novel approach to jointly model the epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of spatially structured host and pathogen populations. Starting from a multi-strain epidemiological model, we use a combination of spatial moment equations and quantitative genetics to analyse the dynamics of mean transmission and virulence in the population. A key insight of our approach is that, even in the absence of long-term evolutionary consequences, spatial structure can affect the short-term evolution of pathogens because of the build-up of spatial differentiation in mean virulence. We show that spatial differentiation is driven by a balance between epidemiological and genetic effects, and this quantity is related to the effect of kin competition discussed in previous studies of parasite evolution in spatially structured host populations. Our analysis can be used to understand and predict the transient evolutionary dynamics of pathogens and the emergence of spatial patterns of phenotypic variation.

Evolution of transgenerational immunity in invertebrates.

Over a decade ago, the discovery of transgenerational immunity in invertebrates shifted existing paradigms on the lack of sophistication of their immune system. Nonetheless, the prevalence of this trait and the ecological factors driving its evolution in invertebrates remain poorly understood. Here, we develop a theoretical host-parasite model and predict that long lifespan and low dispersal should promote the evolution of transgenerational immunity. We also predict that in species that produce both philopatric and dispersing individuals, it may pay to have a plastic allocation strategy with a higher transgenerational immunity investment in philopatric offspring because they are more likely to encounter locally adapted pathogens. We review all experimental studies published to date, comprising 21 invertebrate species in nine different orders, and we show that, as expected, longevity and dispersal correlate with the transfer of immunity to offspring. The validity of our prediction regarding the plasticity of investment in transgenerational immunity remains to be tested in invertebrates, but also in vertebrate species. We discuss the implications of our work for the study of the evolution of immunity, and we suggest further avenues of research to expand our knowledge of the impact of transgenerational immune protection in host-parasite interactions.

Evolution of spatially structured host-parasite interactions.

Spatial structure has dramatic effects on the demography and the evolution of species. A large variety of theoretical models have attempted to understand how local dispersal may shape the coevolution of interacting species such as host-parasite interactions. The lack of a unifying framework is a serious impediment for anyone willing to understand current theory. Here, we review previous theoretical studies in the light of a single epidemiological model that allows us to explore the effects of both host and parasite migration rates on the evolution and coevolution of various life-history traits. We discuss the impact of local dispersal on parasite virulence, various host defence strategies and local adaptation. Our analysis shows that evolutionary and coevolutionary outcomes crucially depend on the details of the host-parasite life cycle and on which life-history trait is involved in the interaction. We also discuss experimental studies that support the effects of spatial structure on the evolution of host-parasite interactions. This review highlights major similarities between some theoretical results, but it also reveals an important gap between evolutionary and coevolutionary models. We discuss possible ways to bridge this gap within a more unified framework that would reconcile spatial epidemiology, evolution and coevolution.

Plasmodium infection brings forward mosquito oviposition.

Invertebrate hosts often bring forward their reproductive effort in response to a parasitic infection. This is widely interpreted as a host-driven response aimed at compensating for the expected losses in future fitness as a result of parasitism. Here we report that mosquitoes bring forward their oviposition schedule when they are infected with Plasmodium, a parasite known to severely curtail mosquito fecundity. This response could aim at compensating for a negative time-dependent effect of the parasite on mosquito fitness, as infected mosquitoes seem to display a strong and progressive decrease in the quality of the eggs they lay. In addition, we show that this shift in oviposition date is dependent on mosquito strain: a comparison of several isogenic mosquitoes strains, one insecticide-susceptible and two insecticide-resistant ones, reveals that only the former shift their oviposition strategy when infected. This pattern suggests the existence of a costly host-driven response to parasitism, as insecticide-resistant mosquitoes have been shown to be in generally poorer condition.

Transgenerational effect of infection in Plasmodium-infected mosquitoes.

Transgenerational effects of infection have a huge potential to influence the prevalence and intensity of infections in vectors and, by extension, disease epidemiology. These transgenerational effects may increase the fitness of offspring through the transfer of protective immune factors. Alternatively, however, infected mothers may transfer the costs of infection to their offspring. Although transgenerational immune protection has been described in a dozen invertebrate species, we still lack a complete picture of the incidence and importance of transgenerational effects of infection in most invertebrate groups. The existence of transgenerational infection effects in mosquito vectors is of particular interest because of their potential for influencing parasite prevalence and intensity and, by extension, disease transmission. Here we present what we believe to be the first study on transgenerational infection effects in a mosquito vector infected with malaria parasites. The aim of this experiment was to quantify both the benefits and the costs of having an infected mother. We find no evidence of transgenerational protection in response to a Plasmodium infection. Having an infected mother does, however, entail considerable fecundity costs for the offspring: fecundity loss is three times higher in infected offspring issued from infected mothers than in infected offspring issued from uninfected mothers. We discuss the implications of our results and we call for more studies looking at transgenerational effects of infection in disease vectors.

The evolution of resistance against good and bad infections.

Opportunities for genetic exchange are abundant between bacteria and foreign genetic elements (FGEs) such as conjugative plasmids, transposable elements and bacteriophages. The genetic novelty that may arise from these forms of genetic exchange is potentially beneficial to bacterial hosts, but there are also potential costs, which may be considerable in the case of phage infection. Some bacterial resistance mechanisms target both beneficial and deleterious forms of genetic exchange. Using a general epidemiological model, we explored under which conditions such resistance mechanisms may evolve. We considered a population of hosts that may be infected by FGEs that either confer a benefit or are deleterious to host fitness, and we analysed the epidemiological and evolutionary outcomes of resistance evolving under different cost/benefit scenarios. We show that the degree of co-infection between these two types of infection is particularly important in determining the evolutionarily stable level of host resistance. We explore these results using the example of CRISPR-Cas, a form of bacterial immunity that targets a variety of FGEs, and we show the potential role of bacteriophage infection in selecting for resistance mechanisms that in turn limit the acquisition of plasmid-borne antibiotic resistance. Finally, beyond microbes, we discuss how endosymbiotic associations may have shaped the evolution of host immune responses to pathogens.

Quantifying the effects of migration and mutation on adaptation and demography in spatially heterogeneous environments.

How do mutation and gene flow influence population persistence, niche expansion and local adaptation in spatially heterogeneous environments? In this article, we analyse a demographic and evolutionary model of adaptation to an environment containing two habitats in equal frequencies, and we bridge the gap between different theoretical frameworks. Qualitatively, our model yields four qualitative types of outcomes: (i) global extinction of the population, (ii) adaptation to one habitat only, but also adaptation to both habitats with, (iii) specialized phenotypes or (iv) with generalized phenotypes, and we determine the conditions under which each equilibrium is reached. We derive new analytical approximations for the local densities and the distributions of traits in each habitat under a migration-selection-mutation balance, compute the equilibrium values of the means, variances and asymmetries of the local distributions of phenotypes, and contrast the effects of migration and mutation on the evolutionary outcome. We then check our analytical results by solving our model numerically, and also assess their robustness in the presence of demographic stochasticity. Although increased migration results in a decrease in local adaptation, mutation in our model does not influence the values of the local mean traits. Yet, both migration and mutation can have dramatic effects on population size and even lead to metapopulation extinction when selection is strong. Niche expansion, the ability for the population to adapt to both habitats, can also be prevented by small migration rates and a reduced evolutionary potential characterized by rare mutation events of small effects; however, niche expansion is otherwise the most likely outcome. Although our results are derived under the assumption of clonal reproduction, we finally show and discuss the links between our model and previous quantitative genetics models.

Evolution of host life-history traits in a spatially structured host-parasite system.

Most models for the evolution of host defense against parasites assume that host populations are not spatially structured. Yet local interactions and limited dispersal can strongly affect the evolutionary outcome, because they significantly alter epidemiological feedbacks and the spatial genetic structuring of the host and pathogen populations. We provide a general framework to study the evolution of a number of host life-history traits in a spatially structured host population infected by a horizontally transmitted parasite. Our analysis teases apart the selective pressures on hosts and helps disentangle the direct fitness effect of mutations and their indirect effects via the influence of spatial structure on the genetic, demographic, and epidemiological structure of the host population. We then illustrate the evolutionary consequences of spatial structure by focusing on the evolution of two host defense strategies against parasitism: suicide upon infection and reduced transmission. Because they bring no direct fitness benefit, these strategies are counterselected or selectively neutral in a nonspatial setting, but we show that they can be selected for in a spatially structured environment. Our study thus sheds light on the evolution of altruistic defense mechanisms that have been observed in various biological systems.

Plasmodium infection decreases fecundity and increases survival of mosquitoes.

Long-lived mosquitoes maximize the chances of Plasmodium transmission. Yet, in spite of decades of research, the effect of Plasmodium parasites on mosquito longevity remains highly controversial. On the one hand, many studies report shorter lifespans in infected mosquitoes. On the other hand, parallel (but separate) studies show that Plasmodium reduces fecundity and imply that this is an adaptive strategy of the parasite aimed at redirecting resources towards longevity. No study till date has, however, investigated fecundity and longevity in the same individuals to see whether this prediction holds. In this study, we follow for both fecundity and longevity in Plasmodium-infected and uninfected mosquitoes using a novel, albeit natural, experimental system. We also explore whether the genetic variations that arise through the evolution of insecticide resistance modulate the effect of Plasmodium on these two life-history traits. We show that (i) a reduction in fecundity in Plasmodium-infected mosquitoes is accompanied by an increase in longevity; (ii) this increase in longevity arises through a trade-off between reproduction and survival; and (iii) in insecticide-resistant mosquitoes, the slope of this trade-off is steeper when the mosquito is infected by Plasmodium (cost of insecticide resistance).

The effects of migration and drift on local adaptation to a heterogeneous environment.

Local adaptation experiments are widely used to quantify the levels of adaptation within a heterogeneous environment. However, theoretical studies generally focus on the probability of fixation of alleles or the mean fitness of populations, rather than local adaptation as it is commonly measured experimentally or in field studies. Here, we develop mathematical models and use them to generate analytical predictions for the level of local adaptation as a function of selection, migration and genetic drift. First, we contrast mean fitness and local adaptation measures and show that the latter can be expressed in a simple and general way as a function of the spatial covariance between population mean phenotype and local environmental conditions. Second, we develop several approximations of a population genetics model to show that the system exhibits different behaviours depending on the rate of migration. The main insights are the following: with intermediate migration, both genetic drift and migration decrease local adaptation; with low migration, drift decreases local adaptation but migration speeds up adaptation; with high migration, genetic drift has no effect on local adaptation. Third, we extend this analysis to cases where the trait under selection is continuous using classical quantitative genetics theory. Finally, we discuss these results in the light of recent experimental work on local adaptation.

Abiotic heterogeneity drives parasite local adaptation in coevolving bacteria and phages.

Spatial abiotic heterogeneity can result in divergent selection, hence might increase the magnitude of host-parasite local adaptation (the mean difference in fitness of sympatric vs. allopatric host-parasite combinations). We explicitly tested this hypothesis by measuring local adaptation in experimentally coevolved populations of bacteria and viruses evolved in the same or different nutrient media. Consistent with previous work, we found that mean levels of evolved phage infectivity and bacteria resistance varied with nutrient concentration, with maximal levels at nutrient concentrations that supported the greatest densities of bacteria. Despite this variation in evolved mean infectivity and resistance between treatments, we found that parasite local adaptation was greatly increased when measured between populations evolved in different, compared with the same, media. This pattern is likely to have resulted from different media imposing divergent selection on bacterial hosts, and phages in turn adapting to their local hosts. These results demonstrate that the abiotic environment can play a strong and predictable role in driving patterns of local adaptation.

Evolution of migration in a periodically changing environment.

The ability to migrate can evolve in response to various forces. In particular, when selection is heterogeneous in space but constant in time, local adaptation induces a fitness cost on immigrants and selects against migration. The evolutionary outcome, however, is less clear when selection also varies temporally. Here, we present a two-locus model analyzing the effects of spatial and temporal variability in selection on the evolution of migration. The first locus is under temporally varying selection (various periodic functions are considered, but a general nonparametric framework is used), and the second locus is a modifier controlling migration ability. First, we study the dynamics of local adaptation and derive the migration rate that maximizes local adaptation as a function of the speed and geometry of the fluctuations in the environment. Second, we derive an analytical expression for the evolutionarily stable migration rate. When there is no cost of migration, we show that higher migration rates are favored when selection changes fast. When migration is costly, however, the evolutionarily stable migration rate is maximal for an intermediate speed of the variation of selection. This model may help in understanding the evolution of migration in a broad range of scenarios and, in particular, in host-parasite systems, where selection is thought to vary quickly in both space and time.

Prevalence of a virus inducing behavioural manipulation near species range border.

The densities of conspecific individuals may vary through space, especially at the edge of species range. This variation in density is predicted to influence the diffusion of species-specific horizontally transmitted symbionts. However, to date there is very little data on how parasite prevalence varies around the border of a host species. Using a molecular epidemiology approach, we studied the prevalence of a vertically and horizontally transmitted virus at the edge of the geographic range of its insect host, the Drosophila parasitoid wasp Leptopilina boulardi. L. boulardi is a Mediterranean parasitoid species showing a recent range expansion to the north (in France). The LbFV virus manipulates the behaviour of females, increasing their tendency to lay additional eggs in already parasitized Drosophila larvae (superparasitism). This is beneficial for the virus because it allows the virus to be horizontally transferred during superparasitism. We show that LbFV prevalence is very high in central populations, intermediate in marginal populations and almost absent from newly established peripheral populations of L. boulardi. We failed to detect any influence of temperature and diapause on viral transmission efficiency but we observed a clear relationship between prevalence and parasitoid density, and between parasitoid density and the occurrence of superparasitism, as predicted by our epidemiological model. Viral strains were all efficient at inducing the behavioural manipulation and viral gene sequencing revealed very low sequence variation. We conclude that the prevalence reached by the virus critically depends on density-dependent factors, i.e. superparasitism, underlying the selective pressures acting on the virus to manipulate the behaviour of the parasitoid.

Evolution of specialization in a spatially continuous environment.

We study the evolution of specialization in a spatially continuous (one-dimensional) environment divided into two habitats; we use a general trade-off function relating fitnesses in the two habitats and illustrate our results with two classical trade-off functions. We show that the population can either reach an intermediate value of the trait and be moderately adapted to both habitats (1 generalist), or split into two locally adapted subpopulations (2 specialists). We recover the qualitative results obtained with simpler metapopulation models with island migration: the evolutionary outcome depends on the concavity of the trade-off, on the proportion of each habitat and on migration. Our quantitative prediction on migration, however, depends on isolation by distance. Our spatially explicit model may thus be particularly useful to describe the evolutionary dynamics of specialization in, perhaps, more realistic ecological scenarios.

Habitat saturation and the spatial evolutionary ecology of altruism.

Under which ecological conditions should individuals help their neighbours? We investigate the effect of habitat saturation on the evolution of helping behaviours in a spatially structured population. We combine the formalisms of population genetics and spatial moment equations to tease out the effects of various physiological (direct benefits and costs of helping) and ecological parameters (such as the density of empty sites) on the selection gradient on helping. Our analysis highlights the crucial importance of demography for the evolution of helping behaviours. It shows that habitat saturation can have contrasting effects, depending on the form of competition (direct vs. indirect competition) and on the conditionality of helping. In our attempt to bridge the gap between spatial ecology and population genetics, we derive an expression for relatedness that takes into account both habitat saturation and the spatial structure of genetic variation. This analysis helps clarify discrepancies in the results obtained by previous theoretical studies. It also provides a theoretical framework taking into account the interplay between demography and kin selection, in which new biological questions can be explored.

Host-parasite coevolution and patterns of adaptation across time and space.

The description of coevolutionary dynamics requires a characterization of the evolutionary dynamics of both the parasite and its host. However, a thorough description of the underlying genetics of the coevolutionary process is often extremely difficult to carry out. We propose that measures of adaptation (mean population fitness) across time or space may represent a feasible alternative approach for characterizing important features of the coevolutionary process. We discuss recent experimental work in the light of simple mathematical models of coevolution to demonstrate the potential power of this phenotypic experimental approach.

Host life history and the evolution of parasite virulence.

We present a general epidemiological model of host-parasite interactions that includes various forms of superinfection. We use this model to study the effects of different host life-history traits on the evolution of parasite virulence. In particular, we analyze the effects of natural host death rate on the evolutionarily stable parasite virulence. We show that, contrary to classical predictions, an increase in the natural host death rate may select for lower parasite virulence if some form of superinfection occurs. This result is in agreement with the experimental results and the verbal argument presented by Ebert and Mangin (1997). This experiment is discussed in the light of the present model. We also point out the importance of superinfections for the effect of nonspecific immunity on the evolution of virulence. In a broader perspective, this model demonstrates that the occurrence of multiple infections may qualitatively alter classical predictions concerning the effects of various host life-history traits on the evolution of parasite virulence.

The curse of the pharaoh hypothesis.

The 'curse of the pharaoh' has been used as a metaphor for the hypothesis that higher parasite propagule survival selects for higher virulence. Indeed, the mysterious death of Lord Carnavon after entering the tomb of the Egyptian pharaoh Tutankhamen could potentially be explained by an infection with a highly virulent and very long-lived pathogen. In this paper, I investigate whether parasite virulence increases with high propagule survival. In this respect, I derive an analytic expression of the evolutionarily stable level of parasite virulence as a function of propagule survival rate when the host-parasite system has reached a stable ecological equilibrium. This result shows that, if multiple infection occurs, higher propagule survival generally increases parasite virulence. This effect is enhanced when parasite dispersal coevolves with parasite virulence. In a more general perspective, the model shows the importance of taking into account the combination of direct and indirect effects (which I call inclusive effects) of higher transmission ability on the evolution of parasite virulence. The recognition of these effects has several practical implications for virulence management.

Evolution of parasite virulence against qualitative or quantitative host resistance.

We analysed the effects of two different modes of host resistance on the evolution of parasite virulence. Hosts can either adopt an all-or-nothing qualitative response (i.e. resistant hosts cannot be infected) or a quantitative form of resistance (i.e. which reduces the within-host growth rate of the parasite). We show that the mode of host resistance greatly affects the evolutionary outcome. Specifically, a qualitative form of resistance reduces parasite virulence, while a quantitative form of resistance generally selects for higher virulence.

Evolution of stepping-stone dispersal rates.

We present a general model of the evolution of dispersal in a population with any distribution of dispersal distance. We use this model to analyse evolutionarily stable (ES) dispersal rates for the classical island model of dispersal and for three different stepping-stone models. Using general techniques to compute relatedness coefficients in the different dispersal models which we consider, we find that the distribution of dispersal distance may affect the ES dispersal rate when the cost of dispersal is low. In this case the ES dispersal rate increases with the number of demes that can be reached by one dispersal event. However, for increasing cost the ES dispersal rate converges to a value independent of the distribution of dispersal distance. These results are in contrast to previous analyses of similar models. The effects of the size (number of demes) and shape (ratio between the width and the length) of the population on the evolution of dispersal are also studied. We find that larger and more elongated populations lead generally to higher ES dispersal rates. However, both of these effects can only be observed for extreme parameter values (i.e. for very small and very elongated populations). The direct fitness method and the analytical techniques used here to compute relatedness coefficients provide an efficient way to analyse ES strategies in subdivided populations.