Response to anti-IL17 therapy in inflammatory disease is not strongly impacted by genetic background.

Response to the anti-IL17 monoclonal antibody secukinumab is heterogeneous, and not all participants respond to treatment. Understanding whether this heterogeneity is driven by genetic variation is a key aim of pharmacogenetics and could influence precision medicine approaches in inflammatory diseases. Using changes in disease activity scores across 5,218 genotyped individuals from 19 clinical trials across four indications (psoriatic arthritis, psoriasis, ankylosing spondylitis, and rheumatoid arthritis), we tested whether genetics predicted response to secukinumab. We did not find any evidence of association between treatment response and common variants, imputed HLA alleles, polygenic risk scores of disease susceptibility, or cross-disease components of shared genetic risk. This suggests that anti-IL17 therapy is equally effective regardless of an individual's genetic background, a finding that has important implications for future genetic studies of biological therapy response in inflammatory diseases.

Prognostic factors for worsening and improvement in multiple sclerosis using a multistate model.

BACKGROUND: The long-term disease trajectory of people living with multiple sclerosis (MS) can be improved by initiating efficacious treatment early. More quantitative evidence is needed on factors that affect a patient's risk of disability worsening or possibility of improvement to inform timely treatment decisions. METHODS: We developed a multistate model to quantify the influence of demographic, clinical, and imaging factors on disability worsening and disability improvement simultaneously across the disability spectrum as measured by the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS). We used clinical trial data from the Novartis-Oxford MS database including ~130,000 EDSS assessments from ~8000 patients, spanning all MS phenotypes. RESULTS: Higher brain volume was positively associated with disability improvement at all disability levels (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.09-1.19; 95% credible interval (CI) = 1.02-1.27). Higher T2 lesion volume was negatively associated with disability improvement up to EDSS 6 (HR = 0.80-0.89; 95% CI = 0.75-0.94). Older age, time since first symptoms, and the number of relapses in the past year were confirmed as predictors of future disability worsening. CONCLUSIONS: Brain damage was identified as the most consistent factor limiting the patient's probability for improvements from the earliest stages and across the whole course of MS. Protecting brain integrity early in MS should have greater weight in clinical decision-making.

A framework for longitudinal latent factor modelling of treatment response in clinical trials with applications to Psoriatic Arthritis and Rheumatoid Arthritis.

OBJECTIVE: Clinical trials involve the collection of a wealth of data, comprising multiple diverse measurements performed at baseline and follow-up visits over the course of a trial. The most common primary analysis is restricted to a single, potentially composite endpoint at one time point. While such an analytical focus promotes simple and replicable conclusions, it does not necessarily fully capture the multi-faceted effects of a drug in a complex disease setting. Therefore, to complement existing approaches, we set out here to design a longitudinal multivariate analytical framework that accepts as input an entire clinical trial database, comprising all measurements, patients, and time points across multiple trials. METHODS: Our framework composes probabilistic principal component analysis with a longitudinal linear mixed effects model, thereby enabling clinical interpretation of multivariate results, while handling data missing at random, and incorporating covariates and covariance structure in a computationally efficient and principled way. RESULTS: We illustrate our approach by applying it to four phase III clinical trials of secukinumab in Psoriatic Arthritis (PsA) and Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA). We identify three clinically plausible latent factors that collectively explain 74.5% of empirical variation in the longitudinal patient database. We estimate longitudinal trajectories of these factors, thereby enabling joint characterisation of disease progression and drug effect. We perform benchmarking experiments demonstrating our method's competitive performance at estimating average treatment effects compared to existing statistical and machine learning methods, and showing that our modular approach leads to relatively computationally efficient model fitting. CONCLUSION: Our multivariate longitudinal framework has the potential to illuminate the properties of existing composite endpoint methods, and to enable the development of novel clinical endpoints that provide enhanced and complementary perspectives on treatment response.

Environmentalizing Bioethics: Planetary Health in a Perfect Moral Storm.

Many of humanity's most serious problems are global, intergenerational, and ecological, yet current institutions are poorly placed to confront such problems. In part, this institutional challenge reflects difficulties with our basic concepts and theories. Bioethics is a central area where such questions arise. Although some have argued for an environmentalized bioethics since its inception, biomedicine has thus far failed to embrace the challenge, and some accuse most bioethicists of being "asleep at the wheel" (Schenck and Churchill 2021). This paper discusses the basic ethical challenge, offers the "perfect moral storm" analysis, and explores one promising new concept for bioethics, planetary health, in light of that analysis. Drawing on the foundational report of the Rockefeller Foundation-Lancet Commission (Whitmee et al. 2015) and using climate change as the example, the author argues that planetary health has significant strengths but also some weaknesses, and that identifying both is helpful in charting a path forward for environmentalized bioethics.

Characterisation of MS phenotypes across the age span using a novel data set integrating 34 clinical trials (NO.MS cohort): Age is a key contributor to presentation.

BACKGROUND: The Oxford Big Data Institute, multiple sclerosis (MS) physicians and Novartis aim to address unresolved questions in MS with a novel comprehensive clinical trial data set. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study is to describe the Novartis-Oxford MS (NO.MS) data set and to explore the relationships between age, disease activity and disease worsening across MS phenotypes. METHODS: We report key characteristics of NO.MS. We modelled MS lesion formation, relapse frequency, brain volume change and disability worsening cross-sectionally, as a function of patients' baseline age, using phase III study data (≈8000 patients). RESULTS: NO.MS contains data of ≈35,000 patients (>200,000 brain images from ≈10,000 patients), with >10 years follow-up. (1) Focal disease activity is highest in paediatric patients and decreases with age, (2) brain volume loss is similar across age and phenotypes and (3) the youngest patients have the lowest likelihood (<25%) of disability worsening over 2 years while risk is higher (25%-75%) in older, disabled or progressive MS patients. Young patients benefit most from treatment. CONCLUSION: NO.MS will illuminate questions related to MS characterisation, progression and prognosis. Age modulates relapse frequency and, thus, the phenotypic presentation of MS. Disease worsening across all phenotypes is mediated by age and appears to some extent be independent from new focal inflammatory activity.

Advancing data science in drug development through an innovative computational framework for data sharing and statistical analysis.

BACKGROUND: Novartis and the University of Oxford's Big Data Institute (BDI) have established a research alliance with the aim to improve health care and drug development by making it more efficient and targeted. Using a combination of the latest statistical machine learning technology with an innovative IT platform developed to manage large volumes of anonymised data from numerous data sources and types we plan to identify novel patterns with clinical relevance which cannot be detected by humans alone to identify phenotypes and early predictors of patient disease activity and progression. METHOD: The collaboration focuses on highly complex autoimmune diseases and develops a computational framework to assemble a research-ready dataset across numerous modalities. For the Multiple Sclerosis (MS) project, the collaboration has anonymised and integrated phase II to phase IV clinical and imaging trial data from ≈35,000 patients across all clinical phenotypes and collected in more than 2200 centres worldwide. For the "IL-17" project, the collaboration has anonymised and integrated clinical and imaging data from over 30 phase II and III Cosentyx clinical trials including more than 15,000 patients, suffering from four autoimmune disorders (Psoriasis, Axial Spondyloarthritis, Psoriatic arthritis (PsA) and Rheumatoid arthritis (RA)). RESULTS: A fundamental component of successful data analysis and the collaborative development of novel machine learning methods on these rich data sets has been the construction of a research informatics framework that can capture the data at regular intervals where images could be anonymised and integrated with the de-identified clinical data, quality controlled and compiled into a research-ready relational database which would then be available to multi-disciplinary analysts. The collaborative development from a group of software developers, data wranglers, statisticians, clinicians, and domain scientists across both organisations has been key. This framework is innovative, as it facilitates collaborative data management and makes a complicated clinical trial data set from a pharmaceutical company available to academic researchers who become associated with the project. CONCLUSIONS: An informatics framework has been developed to capture clinical trial data into a pipeline of anonymisation, quality control, data exploration, and subsequent integration into a database. Establishing this framework has been integral to the development of analytical tools.