RESUMEN
Yellow fever (YF) is a viral, vector-borne, haemorrhagic fever endemic in tropical regions of Africa and South America. The vaccine for YF is considered safe and effective, but intervention strategies need to be optimised; one of the tools for this is mathematical modelling. We refine and expand an existing modelling framework for Africa to account for transmission in South America. We fit to YF occurrence and serology data. We then estimate the subnational forces of infection for the entire endemic region. Finally, using demographic and vaccination data, we examine the impact of vaccination activities. We estimate that there were 109,000 (95% credible interval [CrI] [67,000-173,000]) severe infections and 51,000 (95% CrI [31,000-82,000]) deaths due to YF in Africa and South America in 2018. We find that mass vaccination activities in Africa reduced deaths by 47% (95% CrI [10%-77%]). This methodology allows us to evaluate the effectiveness of vaccination and illustrates the need for continued vigilance and surveillance of YF.
Asunto(s)
Carga Global de Enfermedades , Fiebre Amarilla/epidemiología , África/epidemiología , Brotes de Enfermedades , Salud Global , Humanos , Vacunación Masiva/estadística & datos numéricos , Modelos Teóricos , Estudios Seroepidemiológicos , América del Sur/epidemiología , Encuestas y Cuestionarios , Vacunación/métodos , Fiebre Amarilla/prevención & control , Fiebre Amarilla/transmisión , Vacuna contra la Fiebre Amarilla/uso terapéuticoRESUMEN
In June 2019, a horse with neurological disorder was diagnosed with West Nile virus (WNV) in Boa Viagem, a municipality in the state of Ceará, northeast Brazil. A multi-institutional task force coordinated by the Brazilian Ministry of Health was deployed to the area for case investigation. A total of 513 biological samples from 78 humans, 157 domestic animals and 278 free-ranging wild birds, as well as 853 adult mosquitoes of 22 species were tested for WNV by highly specific serological and/or molecular tests. No active circulation of WNV was detected in vertebrates or mosquitoes by molecular methods. Previous exposure to WNV was confirmed by seroconversion in domestic birds and by the detection of specific neutralizing antibodies in 44% (11/25) of equids, 20.9% (14/67) of domestic birds, 4.7% (13/278) of free-ranging wild birds, 2.6% (2/78) of humans, and 1.5% (1/65) of small ruminants. Results indicate that not only equines but also humans and different species of domestic animals and wild birds were locally exposed to WNV. The detection of neutralizing antibodies for WNV in free-ranging individuals of abundant passerine species suggests that birds commonly found in the region may have been involved as amplifying hosts in local transmission cycles of WNV.